October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
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Snap parliamentary elections will be held in Bulgaria in 27 October 2024,[1][2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. They will be the country's sixth snap elections since 2021.
Background
Elections and government breakdown
Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[3][4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.[5][6]
On 22 May 2023, the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[7] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down,[8][9][10][11] and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister,[12] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.[13][14]
June elections
The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989.[3] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly.[15] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[16] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June.[17] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August.[18][19][20]
On 9 August, the Bulgarian President as a consequence instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister.[21] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024.[22] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by president Rumen Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election.[23]
Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister,[24] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October.[25][26]
Changes in the Assembly's composition prior to the election
One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.[27]
The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.[28]
A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.[29]
As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:
| Composition of the 50th Parliament (by the end of July 2024)[30] 
|
Electoral system
The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.[31][32]
Parties
Contesting parties and coalitions
Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[33][34] Boxes shaded in grey are not officially parties, but key groups in each alliance.
It was reported that despite suggesting they could run, Volt, Bulgarian National Union and VMRO did not submit their lists in time to partake in the elections.[35] NDPS also wished to partake, but its registration was deleted.[36]
DPS leadership dispute
On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party.[37][38][39] Peevski called the move unconstitutional,[8] and gained control of the official party website.[40] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split.[29] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging,[41] DPS – A New Beginning[42] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms,[43] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission.[6][44] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS~Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance.[45] The DPS mayors split 50:50 between both groups.[46]
Opinion polls
The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.
121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass the 4% threshold to be elected to the National Assembly.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample | GERB–SDS | DPS | PP–DB | Vaz | BSP–OL | ITN | Vel | MECh | SB | Others | NOTA | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APS | DPS–NN | BSP | L! | IsBg | |||||||||||||
| Market Links | 25 Sep – 1 Oct | 1,011 | 27.1 78 |
9.9 29 |
7.5 22 |
16.5 48 |
15.6 45 |
6.2 18 |
3.99 0 |
3.8 0 |
– | – | 9.8 | 2.4[a] | 10.6 | ||
| Trend | 17–24 Sep 2024 | 1,003 | 24.8 72 |
8.5 24 |
5.8 16 |
15.1 43 |
15.6 45 |
6.9 20 |
6.9 20 |
3.4 0 |
3.5 0 |
1.6 0 |
7.9 | 3.9[a] | 9.2 | ||
| Alpha Research | 18–24 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 26.0 75 |
8.6 24 |
6.6 19 |
15.7 44 |
15.4 43 |
6.8 19 |
5.9 16 |
3.5 0 |
3.0 0 |
2.8 0 |
5.5 | 2.6[a] | 10.3 | ||
| 11 Sep 2024 | DPS splits into APS and DPS-NN | ||||||||||||||||
| Market Links | 14–23 Aug 2024 | 1,038 | 26.2 76 |
18.4 53 |
17.1 50 |
13.7 40 |
7.4 21 |
– | – | 3.8 0 |
2.4 0 |
– | – | 8.0 | 3.0 | 7.8 | |
| Gallup International | 1–9 Aug 2024 | 802 | 25.2 74 |
14.5 42 |
15.2 44 |
14.2 41 |
7.3 21 |
– | – | 6.2 18 |
3.6 0 |
3.4 0 |
– | 10.4 | 2.5[a] | 10.0 | |
| Market Links | 20–28 Jul 2024 | 1,008 | 25.8 71 |
14.4 40 |
17.2 47 |
12.3 34 |
7.7 21 |
– | – | 5.8 16 |
4.2 11 |
– | – | 8.6 | 2.8 | 8.6 | |
| Market Links | 18–25 Jun 2024 | 1,014 | 24.4 66 |
18.3 50 |
16.2 44 |
13.8 38 |
5.3 14 |
– | – | 5.4 15 |
5.0 13 |
– | – | 6.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | |
| June 2024 election results | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 24.7 68 |
17.1 47 |
14.3 39 |
13.8 38 |
7.1 19 |
0.7 0 |
1.5[b] 0 |
6.0 16 |
4.7 13 |
3.0 0 |
1.6 0 |
7.7 | –[c] | 7.4 | |
- ^ a b c d This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages.
- ^ As Solidary Bulgaria.
- ^ In official election results, None of the above votes don’t count as a proportion of the total vote. In the June 2024 election, they reached a total number of 63,913 or approximately 2.9%, if measured proportionally.
Conduct
Allegations of vote buying are common occurrances in the Bulgarian electoral cycle,[47] with former press focus on vote buying among the Roma community in the country.[48] During the election campaign, a deputy, Ivaylo Mirchev, from PP–DB, claimed that there was widespread vote buying being conducted by DPS–Peevski, claiming people were being paid up to 500 BGN ($286) per vote.[49]
The interior minister, Atanas Ilkov, told a parliamentary hearing that he had received two alerts of vote buying by 25 September.[50] A national police operation was set up to target the practice began operating two days later.[51]
References
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- ^ "Central Election Commission Adopts Schedule for October 27 Snap Parliamentary Elections". www.bta.bg. Retrieved 27 August 2024.
- ^ a b "Bulgaria's Petkov points finger at mafia and Russia as government collapses". POLITICO. 22 June 2022. Archived from the original on 10 April 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
- ^ "Bulgaria gears for its fifth election in two years on April 2". Reuters. 24 January 2023. Archived from the original on 27 January 2023. Retrieved 10 April 2023.
- ^ "Bulgarian elections: Pro-Russia party may 'force' a pro-EU coalition". www.euractiv.com. 3 April 2023. Archived from the original on 4 April 2023. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
- ^ a b "Ex-PM Borissov's GERB nudges ahead in Bulgarian election, partial results show". Reuters. 3 April 2023. Archived from the original on 3 April 2023. Retrieved 3 April 2023.
- ^ Христова, Анна (13 April 2023). "102-ото правителство академично до февруари – Денков пръв, после 9 месеца Габриел премиер (Обзор)". 24chasa.com (in Bulgarian). Archived from the original on 11 June 2023. Retrieved 22 May 2023.
- ^ a b Denitsa Koseva (20 March 2024). "Bulgaria thrown into new political crisis, snap general election likely". BNE Intellinews. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "Mariya Gabriel's Proposed Cabinet Sparks Controversy: WCC-DB Disagrees with Composition". Novinite. 20 March 2024. Archived from the original on 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ Krassen Nikolov (20 March 2024). "Bulgarian cabinet rotation falls, snap election looms". Euractiv. Archived from the original on 11 June 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
- ^ "A Failed Government Mandate: What's Next". Bulgarian News Agency. 25 March 2024. Archived from the original on 25 March 2024. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ "Bulgarian parliament formally approves caretaker government to run country until June 9 elections". Associated Press. 9 April 2024. Archived from the original on 11 April 2024. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
- ^ Yoanna Vodenova (5 April 2024). "UPDATED: European and Snap Parliamentary Elections in Bulgaria to be Held Simultaneously on June 9". Bulgarian News Agency. Archived from the original on 5 April 2024. Retrieved 5 April 2024.
- ^ Matey Todorov (9 April 2024). "UPDATED: President Radev Schedules Elections for June 9". Bulgarian News Agency. Archived from the original on 10 April 2024. Retrieved 9 April 2024.
- ^ "Centre right bags victory in Bulgaria national and EU elections". euronews. 10 June 2024. Retrieved 4 August 2024.
- ^ Petya Petrova (19 June 2024). "New Parliament Opens". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ Petya Petrova (19 June 2024). "New MPs Are Sworn In". Bulgarian News Agency. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria appears set for early elections as populist ITN says it will abandon bid for government". The Sofia Globe. 4 August 2024. Retrieved 4 August 2024.
- ^ Metodi Yordanov; Ivan Lazarov (4 August 2024). "TISP Leader Trifonov Says Party Will Return to President Exploratory Mandate Unfulfilled". BTA. Retrieved 4 August 2024.
- ^ Nikolai Zabov (5 August 2024). "Updated: There Is Such a People Returns Government-Forming Mandate Unfulfilled, New Snap Elections to Be Scheduled". BTA. Retrieved 5 August 2024.
- ^ Matey Todorov (9 August 2024). "Updated: President Tasks New Caretaker PM with Forming Cabinet". BTA. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
- ^ Diana Dukovska (9 August 2024). "President Radev Says October 20 Best Date for Snap Elections". BTA. Retrieved 9 August 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria elections postponed as political crisis deepens". POLITICO. 19 August 2024. Retrieved 22 August 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria: Glavchev to Lead Interim Government Again, October Elections Confirmed - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency". www.novinite.com. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
- ^ "New Bulgarian caretaker government sworn in". euronews. 27 August 2024. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
- ^ "Bulgaria to hold another snap parliamentary election on Oct. 27, says president". Reuters. 26 August 2024.
- ^ a b "БСП гони Калоян Методиев от парламента". Media Mall (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 4 July 2024.
- ^ a b c Lyubomir Gigov (5 July 2024). "Velichie Parliamentary Group Ceases Existence amidst Intra-Party Row". BTA. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ a b c Momchil Rusev (11 July 2024). "MRF Parliamentary Group Expels 17 MPs, Rift Deepens". BTA. Retrieved 30 July 2024.
- ^ National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria (1 August 2024). "Parliamentary groups (composition on 1 August 2024)". parliament.bg. Archived from the original on 1 August 2024. Retrieved 1 August 2024.
- ^ "Republic of Bulgaria Election for Narodno Sabranie (Bulgarian National Assembly)". IFES Election Guide.
- ^ "Electoral system for national legislature – Bulgaria". International IDEA.
- ^ https://www.cik.bg/bg/ns27.10.2024/registers/percoal
- ^ https://www.cik.bg/bg/ns27.10.2024/registers/per
- ^ Веселинова, Йорданка (25 September 2024). "Кои са номерата на партиите и коалициите в бюлетината за изборите за Народно събрание". www.dnevnik.bg (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 25 September 2024.
- ^ "The CEC deleted the registration of the NDPS of Güner Tahir for participation in the elections". Fakti.bg - Да извадим фактите наяве (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 28 September 2024.
- ^ "ДПС на Ахмед Доган изключи Делян Пеевски и хората му". www.24chasa.bg. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
- ^ "Централното бюро на ДПС изключи Пеевски. Сменени са 10 областни ръководители и печатът на партията". Свободна Европа (in Bulgarian). 27 August 2024. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
- ^ "ДПС освободи Делян Пеевски като председател и го изключи от партията". bTV Новините (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 28 August 2024.
- ^ "Официалният сайт на ДПС отново е под контрола на Делян Пеевски". bTV Новините (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 28 August 2024.
- ^ "Both Wings of MRF Enter CEC Building to Submit Registration Documents for Upcoming Parliamentary Elections". www.bta.bg. Retrieved 3 September 2024.
- ^ "MRF - New Beginning Files for Registration in Parliamentary Elections as Three-Member Coalition". www.bta.bg. Retrieved 3 September 2024.
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- ^ Dnevnik.bg (18 September 2024). ""Той смята, че е купил тая партия". Какво е бъдещето на Доган и Пеевски в ДПС". www.dnevnik.bg (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 18 September 2024.
- ^ "Criminal Networks Capturing the State: The case of Controlled Voting and Vote Buying in Bulgaria". ecpr.eu. Retrieved 30 September 2024.
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