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2024 California's 16th congressional district election

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2024 California's 16th congressional district election
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
 
Candidate Sam Liccardo Evan Low
Party Democratic Democratic
Incumbent U.S. Representative

Anna Eshoo
Democratic



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The 2024 California's 16th congressional district election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 16th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.

The 16th district is an urban/suburban district based in Silicon Valley, including portions of Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, extending from the southwestern San Francisco Bay Area through the Santa Cruz Mountains to the Pacific coast. Its largest cities are San Jose, Mountain View, and Palo Alto.[1] Joe Biden won the district with 75.4% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, making it a safe Democratic district.[2]

The incumbent is Democrat Anna Eshoo, who was re-elected with 57.8% of the vote in 2022 against another Democrat.[3] She did not seek re-election.[4] A wide field of 11 candidates filed for the race to succeed her, with 9 Democrats and 2 Republicans joining the race. The primary election was very close, with initial returns showing a heated battle for the two spots in the general election. A week after the primary, media outlets reported that former San Jose mayor Sam Liccardo had taken the first spot. However, it was unclear which candidate he would face in the general election, as state assemblyman Evan Low and Santa Clara County supervisor Joe Simitian repeatedly traded the second-place position during the vote count process.[5]

By April 3, both Low and Simitian tied with 30,249 votes each in the final account and were expected to advance to the general election under a stipulation by California elections code regarding a second-place tie in primary elections.[5] However, a recount was requested by two voters shortly thereafter. The recount request was controversial, with Low's campaign accusing Liccardo of being behind it, an accusation which was vehemently denied by Liccardo's campaign.[6] At the conclusion of the recount on May 1, Low ultimately edged out Simitian by a margin of 5 votes, with Low gaining 12 votes and Simitian 7.[7] As required by federal law, the source of the recount funds was later revealed to be a pro-Liccardo super PAC funded almost entirely by billionaire Michael Bloomberg.[8][9]

The primary results marked the second time since California transitioned to a nonpartisan blanket primary system in 2012 in which there was a second-place tie in a primary election and a potential three-candidate general election, the first being the 2016 election for California's 62nd State Assembly district.[a][5]

Primary election

2024 California's 16th congressional district primary election (post-recount results)
← 2022 March 5, 2024 2026 →
Turnout182,135 votes
 
Candidate Sam Liccardo Evan Low Joe Simitian
Party Democratic Democratic Democratic
Popular vote 38,492 30,261 30,256
Percentage 21.1% 16.6% 16.6%
 
Candidate Peter Ohtaki Peter Dixon Rishi Kumar
Party Republican Democratic Democratic
Popular vote 23,283 14,677 12,383
Percentage 12.8% 8.1% 6.8%
 
Candidate Karl Ryan Julie Lythcott-Haims
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 11,563 11,386
Percentage 6.3% 6.2%
U.S. Representative before election

Anna Eshoo
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

TBD

Candidates

Advanced to general

Initially advanced to general but eliminated after recount

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 14, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Joby Bernstein (D) $140,836[c] $59,832 $81,003
Peter Dixon (D) $2,792,923[d] $1,894,060 $898,862
Rishi Kumar (D) $289,503[e] $186,637 $101,756
Sam Liccardo (D) $2,206,228 $988,382 $1,217,845
Evan Low (D) $1,369,551[f] $1,024,180 $345,371
Julie Lythcott-Haims (D) $595,779 $443,035 $152,744
Ahmed Mostafa (D) $201,773 $127,469 $74,303
Joe Simitian (D) $951,156 $932,783 $588,744
Greg Tanaka (D) $15,080[g] $13,182 $1,898
Peter Ohtaki (R) $54,169[h] $32,982 $21,187
Source: Federal Election Commission[19]

Endorsements

Peter Dixon (D)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Sam Liccardo (D)
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Julie Lythcott-Haims (D)
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Rishi Kumar (D)
Organizations
Evan Low (D)
U.S. Senators
Statewide officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
County officials
Judges
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ahmed Mostafa (D)
Organizations
Peter Ohtaki (R)
Local officials
Organizations
Karl Ryan (R)
Political parties
Joe Simitian (D)
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[i] 		Margin
of error 		Rishi
Kumar (D) 		Sam
Liccardo (D) 		Evan
Low (D) 		Julie Lythcott-
Haims (D) 		Peter
Ohtaki (R) 		Karl
Ryan (R) 		Joe
Simitian (D) 		Other Undecided
Problosky Research[A] January 21–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 5% 7.5% 16% 7.3% 4% 2.5% 6.5% 13.3% 9.4%[j] 33.8%
RMG Research[B] January 3–4, 2024 426 (LV) ± 4.7 6% 13% 11% 5% 2% — 12% 2%[k] 46%
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] November 2023 400 (LV) ? 7% 16% 5% — 6% 9% 12% 11%[l] 33%

Initial certified results

2024 California's 16th congressional district primary (results certified on April 4, 2024)[63]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sam Liccardo 38,489 21.1
Democratic Evan Low 30,249 16.6
Democratic Joe Simitian 30,249 16.6
Republican Peter Ohtaki 23,275 12.8
Democratic Peter Dixon 14,673 8.1
Democratic Rishi Kumar 12,377 6.8
Republican Karl Ryan 11,557 6.3
Democratic Julie Lythcott-Haims 11,383 6.2
Democratic Ahmed Mostafa 5,811 3.2
Democratic Greg Tanaka 2,421 1.3
Democratic Joby Bernstein 1,651 0.9
Total votes 182,135 100.0

Recount and involvement of Liccardo super PACs

Santa Clara and San Mateo counties certified the primary results on April 4.[64] The Los Angeles Times pointed out that Low and Simitian had no incentive to request a recount, which could potentially lock them out of the general election.[5] Both campaigns released statements indicating that they intend to compete in the general election.[65] However, local media reported that a poll had been sent to voters testing a three-way race as well as two-way races between Liccardo and each of his opponents, leading to speculation that Liccardo's campaign would ask for a recount.[66] On April 9, officials in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties confirmed that two residents of the district had requested a recount: Jonathan Padilla, who served as finance director on Liccardo's 2014 mayoral campaign and donated $1,000 to his 2024 congressional campaign, and Pacifica resident Dan Stegink.[6] Stegink later withdrew his request.[67]

Low's campaign alleged that Liccardo was behind the requests, which they called "a page right out of Trump's political playbook using dirty tricks to attack democracy and subvert the will of the voters." Liccardo's campaign denied responsibility, though they maintained the recount was necessary, saying "every vote should be counted."[68] Padilla, a "longtime Silicon Valley political insider," did not answer questions from local media about the source of the funds for the costly recount. Eshoo, who endorsed Simitian, called for transparency in the recount process.[69] In his recount request, Padilla wrote that he was "not coordinating or communicating with any candidate or candidates’ agents" and made "this request on behalf of Evan Low."[70] However, Low's campaign reaffirmed that he did not support the recount and called Padilla's statement "disingenuous."[71]

Padilla submitted a $12,000 deposit for the recount on April 12. He opted for a machine recount, in which ballots are re-screened by a machine, rather than a much more expensive manual recount, in which volunteers would count each ballot by hand. Election officials estimated the cost of the machine recount at around $80,000, whereas a manual recount could have cost upwards of $400,000.[72] The recount began on April 15.[67]

According to reporting by KNTV, the recount is being funded by $12,000 checks from the newly-formed super PAC "Count the Vote" signed by James Sutton, an attorney who had previously represented Liccardo.[73] On April 19, Santa Clara County Government Attorneys Association president Max Zarzana filed a complaint with the Federal Elections Commission, alleging that the Liccardo campaign concocted a "secret scheme to illegally coordinate with a newly-formed dark money Super PAC to do his CD-16 recount bidding" and noted Liccardo's past connections with those involved in requesting the recount. Zarzana also highlighted Liccardo's history of "backroom deals" including violations of the California Public Records Act for which he was previously fined $500,000.[74]

The results of the recount were finalized on May 1, with Low advancing to the general election and Simitian eliminated by a 5-vote margin, 30,261 to 30,256.[7] On May 2, the Liccardo campaign shared internal poll results showing him with a 10-point lead over Low in a two-way race, compared with just a 5-point lead in a three-way race. The poll was completed on April 8, the day before the recount was requested.[75]

On May 20, Neighbors for Results, the super PAC supporting Liccardo almost entirely funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, disclosed that it paid $102,000 to the group which funded the recount, Count the Vote PAC.[8][9] The attorney who represented Padilla in his recount request, Matthew Alvarez, is also listed as the treasurer of both super PACs in question. In 2018, Bloomberg Philanthropies previously selected San Jose, which Liccardo was then mayor of, for funding and resources from the American Cities Climate Challenge, and two years later Liccardo then endorsed and served as a state co-chair on Bloomberg's presidential campaign.[76][71] After this information was publicized, a second Bay Area attorney, Brian O'Grady, filed a FEC complaint claiming that the PACs violated federal campaign finance laws in order to hide their connection with Liccardo's campaign.[77]

Post-recount results

2024 California's 16th congressional district primary[78][79]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Sam Liccardo 38,492 21.1 −0.005
Democratic Evan Low 30,261 16.6 +0.002
Democratic Joe Simitian 30,256 16.6 −0.001
Republican Peter Ohtaki 23,283 12.8 +0.001
Democratic Peter Dixon 14,677 8.1 −0.000
Democratic Rishi Kumar 12,383 6.8 +0.001
Republican Karl Ryan 11,563 6.3 +0.001
Democratic Julie Lythcott-Haims 11,386 6.2 −0.000
Democratic Ahmed Mostafa 5,814 3.2 +0.001
Democratic Greg Tanaka 2,421 1.3 −0.000
Democratic Joby Bernstein 1,652 0.9 +0.000
Total votes 182,188 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[80] Solid D February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[81] Solid D March 10, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[82] Safe D February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[83] Safe D February 5, 2024
CNalysis[84] Solid D November 16, 2023

Post-primary endorsements

Sam Liccardo (D)
Organizations
Evan Low (D)
Organizations

Debates

2024 California's 16th congressional district election debate
No. Date Host Moderators Link Democratic Democratic
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn

Liccardo Low
1 October 11, 2024 KNTV
KSTS
KQED 		Raj Mathai YouTube P P

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[i] 		Margin
of error 		Sam
Liccardo (D) 		Evan
Low (D) 		Undecided
USC/CSU[D] September 14–21, 2024 544 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 27% 30%[m]
EMC Research[E] September 5–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 45% 7%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies (D)[D] September 4–7, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 28% 30%
Tulchin Research (D)[F] July 23–29, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 30% 29% 41%
Lake Research Partners (D)[G] June 24–27, 2024 600 (LV) – 39% 28% 33%
Lake Research Partners (D)[G] April 5–8, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 36% 26% 38%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[i] 		Margin
of error 		Sam
Liccardo (D) 		Evan
Low (D) 		Joe
Simitian (D) 		Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[G] April 5–8, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 26% 21% 20% 24%

Results

2024 California's 16th congressional district general election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sam Liccardo
Democratic Evan Low
Total votes
Democratic hold

Notes

  1. ^ In the 2016 California's 62nd State Assembly district election, incumbent Assemblymember Autumn Burke faced off against two write-in candidates who tied with 32 primary votes each.[5]
  2. ^ This district was numbered as the 18th district prior to the 2020 redistricting cycle.
  3. ^ $3,000 of this total was self-funded by Bernstein
  4. ^ $1,400,000 of this total was self-funded by Dixon
  5. ^ $15,000 of this total was self-funded by Kumar
  6. ^ $13,661 of this total was self-funded by Low
  7. ^ $13,182 of this total was self-funded by Tanaka
  8. ^ $40,000 of this total was self-funded by Ohtaki
  9. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  10. ^ Peter Dixon (D) with 4.3%; Ahmed Mostafa (D) and Greg Tanaka (D) each with 2.3%; Joby Bernstein with 0.5%
  11. ^ Joby Bernstein (D), Peter Dixon (D), Ahmed Mostafa (D), and Greg Tanaka (D) with 0%; "Other" with 2%
  12. ^ Sally Lieber (D) with 7%; Josh Becker (D) with 4%; Joby Bernstein (D) with 1%
  13. ^ "Won't vote" with 7%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll commissioned by San Jose Spotlight
  2. ^ Poll commissioned by U.S. Term Limits. Evan Low has signed the group's term-limits pledge.
  3. ^ Poll commissioned by supporters of Sam Liccardo
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Neighbors for Results PAC, which supports Sam Liccardo
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Equality California, which supports Low's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Low's campaign
  7. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Liccardo's campaign

References

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  67. ^ a b Marzorati, Guy (April 15, 2024). "Silicon Valley Readies for Low-Simitian House Race Recount — but How Does It Work?". KQED. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  68. ^ Taylor, Sarah; Korte, Lara (April 9, 2024). "Tied California House race heading to a recount". Politico. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
  69. ^ Giwargis, Ramona (April 10, 2024). "Silicon Valley Rep. Eshoo demands transparency in recount". San José Spotlight. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
  70. ^ Taylor, Sarah Grace (April 10, 2024). "Wait … who's calling for a recount in the tied House election?". Politico. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  71. ^ a b Stein, Shira (April 10, 2024). "An unusual Bay Area House race just got even weirder". San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  72. ^ Hase, Grace (April 12, 2024). "With money put up for recount request, Congressional District 16 race is officially back on". The Mercury News. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  73. ^ Moran, Jocelyn (April 17, 2024). "Questions linger about who is paying for recount in District 16 congressional race". NBC Bay Area. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  74. ^ Kadah, Jana (April 19, 2024). "Federal complaint filed against San Jose congressional candidate Sam Liccardo". San José Spotlight. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
  75. ^ Rubashkin, Jacob [@JacobRubashkin] (May 2, 2024). "A day after the CA-16 recount concluded with Evan Low just squeezing out Joe Simitian for the second general election spot, the Sam Liccardo campaign publicizes an early April Lake Research poll showing Liccardo leading Low, 36-26, in a head to head matchup. All are Democrats" (Tweet). Retrieved May 2, 2024 – via Twitter.
  76. ^ Hase, Grace (May 20, 2024). "Super PAC funded by Michael Bloomberg helped pay for Congressional District 16 recount". East Bay Times. Retrieved May 20, 2024.
  77. ^ Pho, Brandon (May 22, 2024). "Ex-San Jose mayor hit with second federal elections complaint". San José Spotlight. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  78. ^ "Final Recount Results (4/30/24)". Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
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  85. ^ "NewDems Endorse Five Candidates from Alabama to California". NewDem Action Fund. May 24, 2024. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  86. ^ Taylor, Sarah (May 15, 2024). "Exclusive: Dems vote to endorse Evan Low". Politico. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
Official campaign websites
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