2024 United States presidential election in Alabama
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| Elections in Alabama |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Alabama is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Alabama voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alabama has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
As a Bible Belt state in the Deep South, Alabama is one of the most socially conservative states in the nation. Following the national Democratic Party's leftward shift in the mid-20th century, the only Democrat to win the Alabaman popular vote in a presidential election after John F. Kennedy in 1960 was Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. Since then, the only Democrats to come within single digits of winning the state at this level were Carter in 1980 and fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in his 1990s nationwide victories.
No presidential Democrat has won more than 40% of the vote in Alabama since Al Gore of neighboring Tennessee in 2000. Democratic support in Alabama nowadays is often vastly concentrated on the state's largest city of Birmingham and the majority-African American Black Belt.[2]
Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[3] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.
Former Republican President Donald Trump is running for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020.[5] He won the state by 27.7% in 2016 and again by 25.4% in 2020. Being a strongly red state, Alabama is expected to remain solid ground for Trump (who has resided in neighboring Florida since 2019, after previously residing in New York[6]) in 2024.
In August 2024, Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen announced a process for purging 3,251 registered Alabama voters and referred them to the state attorney general’s office for criminal prosecution.[7][8] In September 2024, the Department of Justice sued Alabama for violating the National Voter Registration Act.[9][10] In October 2024, district judge Anna Manasco ruled in favor of the Department of Justice, ordering the state to restore the voter registrations.[11][12] Alabama secretary of state’s chief of staff Clay Helms testified that 2,000 of the purged voters were legally registered citizens.[12]
Primary elections
Democratic primary
The Alabama Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 168,080 | 89.50% | 52 | 52 | |
| Uncommitted | 11,283 | 6.01% | 0 | 0 | |
| Dean Phillips | 8,442 | 4.50% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 187,805 | 100.00% | 52 | 7 | 59 |
Republican primary
The Alabama Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 499,147 | 83.20% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
| Nikki Haley | 77,989 | 13.00% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 9,807 | 1.63% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 8,452 | 1.41% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,864 | 0.31% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 1,442 | 0.24% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 752 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley | 509 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 599,962 | 100.00% | 50 | 0 | 50 |
General election
On April 9, 2024, Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen informed the Democratic National Committee that state law would not permit certification in time to include President Biden on the November ballot, as the 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) was to take place days after the state deadline of August 15.[16] The following month, legislation was approved extending the deadline to August 23, one day after the conclusion of the DNC, allowing Biden to appear on the ballot.[17]
In early August, after Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden in the race, Democrats held a virtual convention to nominate Harris, a process then formalized at the DNC convention. The day after the convention's conclusion, the Alabama Democratic Party filed paperwork to ensure Harris's inclusion on the Alabama ballot in November.[18]
Early voting
A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Alabama is one of only three remaining states (along with Mississippi and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[19]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[20] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[21] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Safe R | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[23] | Safe R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[24] | Solid R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[25] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[26] | Safe R | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[27] | Solid R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[28] | Solid R | June 26, 2024 |
| NBC News[29] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[30][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 513 (LV) | – | 60% | 32% | 8% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[31] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 191 (RV) | – | 56% | 37% | 7%[b] |
| 179 (LV) | 57% | 38% | 5%[c] | |||
| WPA Intelligence (R)[32] | August 23–24 & 26, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 57% | 32% | 12% |
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[30][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 513 (LV) | – | 56% | 31% | 13% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[30][A] | April 13–21, 2024 | 513 (LV) | – | 56% | 30% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | |||||
| Democratic | |||||
| Libertarian | |||||
| Green | |||||
| Independent |
|
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| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
- United States presidential elections in Alabama
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
References
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
- ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 21, 2024.
- ^ Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
- ^ Kelly, Caroline (November 1, 2019). "Trump ditches New York to become a Florida resident, court documents show | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved October 15, 2024.
- ^ Levine, Sam (August 30, 2024). "'The chilling effect': behind GOP-led states' efforts to purge some voters from the rolls". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ "Federal judge blocks Alabama's voter purge program ahead of election". NBC News. October 16, 2024. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ Cole, Devan (September 29, 2024). "Justice Department sues Alabama over its effort to remove more than 3,000 names from voter rolls too close to election | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ Lo Wang, Hansi (September 27, 2024). "Justice Department sues Alabama, claiming it purged voters too close to the election". NPR. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ Rubin, April (October 16, 2024). "Federal judge orders Alabama to halt voter purge program and restore eligible voters". Axios.
- ^ a b Riddle, Safiyah (October 16, 2024). "A federal judge halts an Alabama program that purged thousands of legal voters". AP News. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ "Certification of Results - Democratic Party (Excel file with vote totals)". Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Qualified Candidates". Alabama Republican Party. February 29, 2024. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Alabama Presidential Primary". The AP. April 30, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ Jack Forrest (April 9, 2024). "Biden may miss window to appear on Alabama's presidential ballot, secretary of state says". CNN. Retrieved May 3, 2024.
- ^ Kim Chandler (May 2, 2024). "Alabama lawmakers approve legislation to ensure President Biden is on the November ballot". Associated Press. Retrieved May 3, 2024.
- ^ Stephenson, Jemma (August 23, 2024). "Kamala Harris, Donald Trump get on Alabama state ballots near deadline". Alabama Reflector. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
- ^ "The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024". The Center for Election Innovation & Research. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
- ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
- ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
- ^ Gorman, Reese (August 30, 2023). "Alabama voters support Tuberville military hold abortion protest, poll says". The Washington Examiner.
- ^ "Alabama Certification of Presidential Independent Candidates 2024" (PDF). Secretary of State of Alabama. August 28, 2024. Retrieved September 9, 2024.
