Draft:Trump coalition
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The Trump coalition was a broad spectrum of voters that Trump united under his banner of Make America Great Again. This coalition helped him win 2016 and 2024, and held mostly intact in the 2020 loss[1]. Coming from the 2016 election, it helped Trump ride to victory by flipping several Midwestern states with large white working class populations, trading off white college educated suburbs such as Chester County. This trend was continued in 2020, allowing Joe Biden to rebuild the Blue wall and flip Georgia and Arizona out. Conversely, Trump had been able to make inroads with minorities, causing states such as Florida and California with large Hispanic populations to buck the national trend and shift right[2]. In his 3rd GOP run, Trump had been able to continue these trends, as well as making a heavy play for young men[3]. Coupling these trends between young men, minorities and Catholics, allowed Trump to win in a landslide[4].
| Trump vote share by demographic subgroup | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic
subgroup |
2016[5] | 2020[6] | 2024[7] | 2016-24
Swing |
| Total vote | 46 | 47 | TBD | TBD |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 10 | 10 | 7 | -3 |
| Moderates | 40 | 34 | 40 | - |
| Conservatives | 81 | 85 | 90 | 9 |
| Party | ||||
| Democrats | 8 | 5 | 4 | -4 |
| Republicans | 88 | 94 | 94 | 6 |
| Independents | 46 | 41 | 46 | - |
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 52 | 53 | 55 | 3 |
| Women | 41 | 42 | 45 | 4 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 52 | 53 | 56 | 4 |
| Unmarried | 37 | 40 | 42 | 5 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 57 | 58 | 57 | - |
| Black | 8 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| Asian | 27 | 34 | 39 | 12 |
| Other | 36 | 41 | 52 | 16 |
| Hispanic | 28 | 32 | 46 | 18 |
| Religion | ||||
| Protestant | 56 | 60 | 63 | 7 |
| Catholic | 50 | 47 | 58 | 8 |
| Jewish | 23 | 22 | 22 | -1 |
| Other | 29 | 29 | 34 | 5 |
| None | 25 | 31 | 26 | 1 |
| White evangelical or born-again Christian? | ||||
| White evangelical or born-again Christian | 80 | 76 | 82 | 2 |
| Everyone else | 34 | 36 | 40 | 6 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 34 | 31 | 42 | 8 |
| 25–29 years old | 38 | 43 | 45 | 7 |
| 30–39 years old | 39 | 46 | 46 | 7 |
| 40–49 years old | 49 | 44 | 50 | 1 |
| 50–64 years old | 52 | 52 | 56 | 4 |
| 65 and older | 52 | 52 | 49 | -3 |
| Age by race | ||||
| Whites 18–29 years old | 47 | 53 | 49 | 2 |
| Whites 30–44 years old | 54 | 57 | 61 | 7 |
| Whites 45–64 years old | 62 | 61 | 55 | -7 |
| Whites 65 and older | 58 | 57 | 55 | -3 |
| Blacks 18–29 years old | 9 | 10 | 15 | 6 |
| Blacks 30–44 years old | 9 | 19 | 15 | 6 |
| Blacks 45–64 years old | 7 | 10 | 15 | 8 |
| Blacks 65 and older | 9 | 7 | 5 | -4 |
| Latinos 18–29 years old | 26 | 28 | 47 | 21 |
| Latinos 30–44 years old | 28 | 34 | 45 | 17 |
| Latinos 45–64 years old | 32 | 30 | 49 | 17 |
| Latinos 65 and older | 25 | 40 | 41 | 16 |
| Others | 31 | 38 | 46 | 15 |
| Sexual orientation | ||||
| LGBT | 14 | 27 | 13 | -1 |
| Heterosexual | 47 | 48 | 53 | 6 |
| Education | ||||
| High school graduate or less | 51 | 54 | 63 | 12 |
| Some college education | 51 | 47 | 51 | - |
| College graduate | 44 | 47 | 45 | 1 |
| Postgraduate education | 37 | 37 | 38 | 1 |
| Union households | ||||
| Union | 42 | 40 | 45 | 3 |
| Non-union | 48 | 49 | 50 | 2 |
| Region | ||||
| Northeast | 40 | 40 | 46 | 6 |
| Midwest | 49 | 51 | 53 | 4 |
| South | 52 | 53 | 55 | 3 |
| West | 39 | 41 | 43 | 4 |
- Democratic—+>15%Democratic—+12.5-15%Democratic—+10-12.5%Democratic—+7.5-10%Democratic—+5-7.5%Democratic—+2.5-5%Democratic—+<2.5%<2%Republican—+<2.5%Republican—+2.5-5%Republican—+5-7.5%Republican—+7.5-10%Republican—+10-12.5%Republican—+12.5-15%Republican—+>15%Data unavailable
| Trump flipped States/Districts | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016[8] | 2020[9] | 2024 | |
| Ohio | Trump + 8.1 | Trump + 8.0 | Trump + 11.5 |
| Iowa | Trump + 9.4 | Trump + 8.2 | Trump + 13.2 |
| Florida | Trump + 1.2 | Trump + 3.4 | Trump + 13.1 |
| Wisconsin | Trump + 0.8 | Biden + 0.6 | Trump + 1.0 |
| Michigan | Trump + 0.2 | Biden + 2.8 | Trump + 1.4 |
| Pennsylvania | Trump + 0.7 | Biden + 1.2 | Trump + 2.0 |
| Nevada | Clinton + 2.4 | Biden + 2.4 | TBD |
| Maine 2nd | Trump + 10.3 | Trump + 7.4 | Trump + 9.0 |
- ^ "How Trump built a new coalition to send him back to the White House". PBS News. 2024-11-06. Retrieved 2024-11-08.
- ^ "US election 2020: Why Trump gained support among minorities". 2020-11-22. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ "Trump's Appeal to Young Men, in Three Charts". Bloomberg.com. 2024-11-07. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ "Donald Trump Can Thank Catholics for His Big Win – EWTN Global Catholic Television Network". 2024-11-08. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ "2016 CNN Exit Poll". CNN. November 23rd, 2016. Retrieved November 8th, 2024.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|access-date=and|date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link) - ^ "National Results 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ "Exit poll results 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ "2016 Presidential Election Results". The New York Times. 2017-08-09. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2024-11-09.
- ^ "2020 State Results". Politico. 11/8/20.
{{cite web}}: Check date values in:|date=(help)CS1 maint: url-status (link)