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2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi

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2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 746,305 465,357
Percentage 60.91% 37.98%

County results

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Mississippi voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Mississippi's six votes in the Electoral College were unaffected by reapportionment after the 2020 United States census.[1]

Though Mississippi has voted to the left of its bordering states in recent presidential elections, owing mainly to its large African-American minority, the state is located in the Deep South and therefore the Bible Belt. One of the most socially conservative states in the nation, it has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Southerner Jimmy Carter's narrow statewide victory in 1976, nor has it been competitive at this level since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas fell five points short of carrying the state in 1996.

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee.[2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Donald Trump ran on the Republican ballot for a third consecutive time. He easily handled Mississippi in the past two election cycles, winning the state by 17.8% in 2016 and again by 16.5% four years later. Before the election, most news organizations considered Mississippi a safe win for Trump.

Trump received 61.3% of the vote in Mississippi, winning the state by a 24.0% margin. This marked the first time since 1984 that a Republican surpassed the 60% threshold in the state. Notably, he flipped several majority-Black counties: Copiah, Pike, and Yazoo Counties, which had not supported a Republican in a presidential race since 2004; Jasper County, last won by a Republican in 2000; Issaquena County, last flipped in 1984. Trump also flipped plurality-White Marshall County, last won by a Republican in 1972 and plurality-Black Warren County, which Trump last won in 2016.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Mississippi Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside primaries in Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, and Washington. 40 delegates to the Republican National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[3]

Mississippi Republican primary, March 12, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 229,198 92.50% 40 0 40
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 13,437 5.42% 0 0 0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,042 1.63% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,096 0.44% 0 0 0
Total: 247,773 100.00% 40 0 40

Democratic primary

The 2024 Mississippi Democratic presidential primary was held on March 12, 2024, alongside the Democrats Abroad, Georgia, Mississippi, and Washington primaries, and Northern Mariana Islands caucuses. 40 delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[5]

In Mississippi, candidates have to pay a filing fee of $2,500 and gather at least 500 signatures to make the primary ballot.[6] Incumbent President Joe Biden won the primary, being the only candidate that met these requirements.[7][better source needed]

Winner

Results

Mississippi Democratic primary, March 12, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 87,922 98.7% 35
Write-in votes 1,187 1.3%
Total: 89,109 100.00% 35 35


General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[15] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[16] Solid R September 20, 2024
RCP[17] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[18] Safe R October 6, 2024
YouGov[19] Likely R November 1, 2024
Split Ticket[20] Safe R November 1, 2024

Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) 51% 42% 7%
Echelon Insights[22][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 409 (LV) ± 7.8% 54% 36% 10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) 50% 37% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][A] April 13–21, 2024 423 (LV) 52% 35% 13%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[22][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 409 (LV) ± 7.8% 49% 37% 14%

Early voting

A study by the Center for Election Innovation & Research in July 2024 found that Mississippi is one of only three remaining states (along with Alabama and New Hampshire) to offer no early in-person voting option for the 2024 general election. The state also requires an eligible reason to vote by mail.[23]

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Mississippi[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 746,305 60.91% +3.31%
Democratic 465,357 37.98% −3.08%
Independent
5,381 0.44% N/A
Libertarian 2,533 0.21% −0.40%
Green 1,871 0.15% +0.04%
Socialism and Liberation 1,073 0.09% N/A
Constitution 1,028 0.08% N/A
American Solidarity
1,003 0.08% −0.01%
Independent
687 0.06% N/A
Total votes 1,225,238 100.00% N/A

By county

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  3. ^ "Mississippi Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 6, 2023.
  4. ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  5. ^ "Mississippi Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved October 11, 2023.
  6. ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 Candidate Qualifying List 1.15.2024" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. January 15, 2024. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  8. ^ "Mississippi Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  20. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  21. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  22. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  23. ^ "The Expansion of Voting Before Election Day, 2000–2024". The Center for Election Innovation & Research. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  24. ^ "Official Results Total Votes Reported by Counties for Federal General Election" (PDF). MS SOS. Retrieved November 22, 2024.