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Next Tasmanian state election
← 2024 No later than 3 June 2028 Next →
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jeremy-Rockliff.jpg
Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium (cropped).jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Dean Winter
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since 8 April 2022 10 April 2024
Leader's seat Braddon Franklin
Last election 14 seats, 36.7% 10 seats, 29.0%
Current seats 14 10
Seats needed Increase 4 Increase 8
 
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Jacqui Lambie
Party Greens Lambie Network
Leader since 13 July 2023 14 May 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Ineligible[a]
Last election 5 seats, 13.9% 3 seats, 6.7%
Current seats 5 1
Seats needed Increase 13 Increase 17
Incumbent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal Party



The next Tasmanian state election will be held no later than 3 June 2028, to elect all 35 seats in the House of Assembly. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).

The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Labor opposition, led by Dean Winter. Minor parties, including the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Background

See also: 2021 Tasmanian state election

Previous election

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022.[1][2] Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2025.[3]

The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne.[4] Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly.[5][6]

Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament

On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity.[7] Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government.[8] This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024.[9]

Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election

Seat Before Change After
Member Party Type Date Date Member Party
Braddon Miriam Beswick Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion 24 August 2024 Miriam Beswick Independent
Bass Rebekah Pentland Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion 24 August 2024 Rebekah Pentland Independent

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Date Firm Political parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN OTH
November 2024 EMRS[10] 35% 31% 14% 6% 14%
August 2024 EMRS[10] 36% 27% 14% 8% 15%
May 2024 EMRS[11] 35% 28% 15% 7% 15%
August 2024 Wolf & Smith[12][13] 32% 23% 14% 11% 20%
August 2024 EMRS[14] 36% 27% 14% 8% 15%
October 2024 EMRS[15] 28% 26% 17% 5% 1%[b]
November 2024 EMRS[16] 35% 31% 14% 5% 3%

Notes

  1. ^ Lambie is currently federal Senator, and therefore ineligible to hold state office concurrently.
  2. ^ 8% unsure/prefer not to say

References

  1. ^ "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  2. ^ Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  3. ^ Voting Systems Tasmanian Electoral Commission
  4. ^ Adam Holmes (24 April 2024). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government". ABC News.
  5. ^ "Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote". Pulse Tasmania. 14 May 2024.
  6. ^ Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker The Mercury 14 May 2024
  7. ^ "Two Tasmanian MPs booted from Jacqui Lambie Network for 'failing to uphold values'". Pulse Tasmania. 24 August 2024.
  8. ^ "Ousted Jacqui Lambie Network MPs commit to supporting Tasmanian Government". Pulse Tasmania. 25 August 2024.
  9. ^ "Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff". Pulse Tasmania. 27 August 2024.
  10. ^ a b "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Market and Research Services. 14 November 2024. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  11. ^ "Voting intentions dashboard". emrs. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
  12. ^ "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  13. ^ "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  14. ^ "Voting intentions dashboard". emrs. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
  15. ^ "EMRS Polling October 2024 on the Budget". Pulse Tasmania.
  16. ^ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll Nov 2024" (PDF). 18 November 2024.
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