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2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 272,081 146,859
Percentage 63.43% 34.24%
County results
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Joe Biden
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Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. South Dakota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Republican Donald Trump carried the state by 29.7% in 2016 and again by 26.1% four years later. Trump won the state by 29.2% in 2024. Trump flipped back Ziebach County, which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 South Dakota Democratic presidential primary

The South Dakota Democratic was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

Republican primary

The South Dakota Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico. Under state law, no primary will be held if a candidate runs for a nomination unopposed.[2] As Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to file for the presidential primary, no popular vote was held.[3]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[4] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[5] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[7] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[8] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[9] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[10] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[11] Solid R June 11, 2024
RCP[12] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[13] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[14] October 19–22, 2024 825 (LV) ± 3.3% 62% 35% 3%[b]
62%[c] 37% 1%[d]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[15][A] April 13–21, 2024 303 (LV) – 60% 32% 8%
Emerson College[16] January 23–28, 2024 1,777 (RV) ± 2.2% 55% 26% 18%
Emerson College[17] October 1–4, 2023 432 (RV) ± 4.7% 50% 28% 22%
Emerson College[18][B] October 19–21, 2022 1,500 (LV) ± 2.4% 53% 33% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[19][C] May 10–13, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 50% 31% 11% 8%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[15][A] April 13–21, 2024 303 (LV) – 51% 38% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[15][A] April 13–21, 2024 303 (LV) – 53% 33% 14%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota[20]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
272,081 63.43% Increase 1.66%
Democratic
146,859 34.24% Decrease 1.37%
Independent
7,204 1.68% N/A
Libertarian
2,778 0.65% Decrease 1.98%
Total votes 428,922 100.00% N/A

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Aurora 1,056 75.81% 302 21.68% 35 2.51% 754 54.13% 1,393
Beadle 4,826 68.84% 2,017 28.77% 167 2.38% 2,809 40.07% 7,010
Bennett 676 62.13% 389 35.75% 23 2.11% 287 26.38% 1,088
Bon Homme 2,236 74.73% 697 23.30% 59 1.97% 1,539 51.43% 2,992
Brookings 8,575 57.40% 5,978 40.02% 386 2.58% 2,597 17.38% 14,939
Brown 10,645 62.46% 6,075 35.65% 323 1.90% 4,570 26.81% 17,043
Brule 1,694 69.91% 666 27.49% 63 2.60% 1,028 42.42% 2,423
Buffalo 164 35.19% 291 62.45% 11 2.36% -127 -27.26% 466
Butte 4,024 79.18% 942 18.54% 116 2.28% 3,082 60.64% 5,082
Campbell 706 84.45% 120 14.35% 10 1.20% 586 70.10% 836
Charles Mix 2,551 70.57% 1,000 27.66% 64 1.77% 1,551 42.91% 3,615
Clark 1,382 75.03% 415 22.53% 45 2.44% 967 52.50% 1,842
Clay 2,574 45.50% 2,944 52.04% 139 2.46% -370 -6.54% 5,657
Codington 9,349 69.20% 3,840 28.42% 321 2.38% 5,509 40.78% 13,510
Corson 631 55.21% 495 43.31% 17 1.49% 136 11.90% 1,143
Custer 4,313 71.87% 1,567 26.11% 121 2.02% 2,746 45.76% 6,001
Davison 6,208 67.65% 2,743 29.89% 226 2.46% 3,465 37.76% 9,177
Day 1,876 63.98% 1,000 34.11% 56 1.91% 876 29.87% 2,932
Deuel 1,717 74.72% 528 22.98% 53 2.31% 1,189 51.74% 2,298
Dewey 793 42.38% 1,032 55.16% 46 2.46% -239 -12.78% 1,871
Douglas 1,419 85.59% 219 13.21% 20 1.21% 1,200 72.38% 1,658
Edmunds 1,618 79.67% 384 18.91% 29 1.43% 1,234 60.76% 2,031
Fall River 3,135 73.35% 1,030 24.10% 109 2.55% 2,105 49.25% 4,274
Faulk 920 81.42% 183 16.19% 27 2.39% 737 65.23% 1,130
Grant 2,594 71.46% 946 26.06% 90 2.48% 1,648 45.40% 3,630
Gregory 1,790 78.96% 426 18.79% 51 2.25% 1,364 60.17% 2,267
Haakon 1,004 89.24% 105 9.33% 16 1.42% 899 79.91% 1,125
Hamlin 2,560 79.36% 610 18.91% 56 1.74% 1,950 60.45% 3,226
Hand 1,376 78.00% 365 20.69% 23 1.30% 1,011 57.31% 1,764
Hanson 1,611 78.74% 399 19.50% 36 1.76% 1,212 59.24% 2,046
Harding 754 91.95% 48 5.85% 18 2.20% 706 86.10% 820
Hughes 5,379 63.77% 2,838 33.65% 218 2.58% 2,541 30.12% 8,435
Hutchinson 2,918 78.10% 755 20.21% 63 1.69% 2,163 57.89% 3,736
Hyde 530 76.26% 148 21.29% 17 2.45% 382 54.97% 695
Jackson 753 66.70% 357 31.62% 19 1.68% 396 35.08% 1,129
Jerauld 708 70.87% 276 27.63% 15 1.50% 432 43.24% 999
Jones 477 86.73% 60 10.91% 13 2.36% 417 75.82% 550
Kingsbury 1,989 71.01% 760 27.13% 52 1.86% 1,229 43.88% 2,801
Lake 3,819 64.66% 1,978 33.49% 109 1.85% 1,841 31.17% 5,906
Lawrence 9,904 64.27% 5,074 32.93% 431 2.80% 4,830 31.34% 15,409
Lincoln 22,621 62.16% 12,981 35.67% 791 2.17% 9,640 26.49% 36,393
Lyman 993 68.62% 422 29.16% 32 2.21% 571 39.46% 1,447
Marshall 1,288 61.07% 782 37.08% 39 1.85% 506 23.99% 2,109
McCook 2,227 73.47% 733 24.18% 71 2.34% 1,494 49.29% 3,031
McPherson 1,087 83.68% 188 14.47% 24 1.85% 899 69.21% 1,299
Meade 10,887 74.20% 3,421 23.32% 364 2.48% 7,466 50.88% 14,672
Mellette 434 58.65% 285 38.51% 21 2.84% 149 20.14% 740
Miner 841 72.07% 293 25.11% 33 2.83% 548 46.96% 1,167
Minnehaha 51,842 55.16% 39,923 42.48% 2,221 2.36% 11,919 12.68% 93,986
Moody 2,068 64.85% 1,052 32.99% 69 2.16% 1,016 31.86% 3,189
Oglala Lakota 406 13.26% 2,567 83.83% 89 2.91% -2,161 -70.57% 3,062
Pennington 35,009 61.88% 20,051 35.44% 1,520 2.69% 14,958 26.44% 56,580
Perkins 1,342 84.35% 228 14.33% 21 1.32% 1,114 70.02% 1,591
Potter 1,059 81.59% 214 16.49% 25 1.93% 845 65.10% 1,298
Roberts 2,514 60.59% 1,560 37.60% 75 1.81% 954 22.99% 4,149
Totals 245,872 % 134,702 % 9,088 % 111,170 % 389,662

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by KELO-TV
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by South Dakota News Watch & Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "2024 Primary Election Candidate List". SD SOS. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
  3. ^ Coote, Darryl (June 5, 2024). "Biden, Trump snap up more primary victories as key congressional races decided". United Press International. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  5. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  10. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  11. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  14. ^ "October 2024 South Dakota Poll: Trump 62%, Harris 35%". Emerson College Polling. October 24, 2024.
  15. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  16. ^ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  17. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 15, 2023). "South Dakota: Quarter of Residents think Gov. Noem Should be Trump's Running Mate". Emerson Polling.
  18. ^ Yost, Rae (October 27, 2022). "Trump defeats Biden in South Dakota in hypothetical 2024 race, poll shows". KELOLAND News.
  19. ^ Whitney, Stu (May 23, 2024). "Poll: Trump has sizable lead in South Dakota but shy of 2016 and 2020 numbers". South Dakota News Watch.
  20. ^ "Unofficial Results General Election November 5, 2024". Secretary of State of South Dakota. Retrieved November 23, 2024.
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