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2008 United States House of Representatives elections

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 66.99.219.102 (talk) at 02:09, 4 June 2007 (→Illinois: --Added Bill Foster as Dem candidate IL-14 and Bob Abboud in IL-16). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Template:Future election in the United States Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 4, 2008, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

The 2008 Presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, 2008 state gubernatorial elections will occur on the same date, as well as many other state and local elections.

Composition going into the elections

The current composition of the House stands at 232 Democrats and 201 Republicans, with two vacancies in Georgia's 10th district and California's 37th district, and no members belonging to other parties. The vacant seats were held by Republican Rep. Charlie Norwood, who died on February 13, 2007, and Democratic Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, who died on April 22, 2007.

Predictions

The Hotline's John Mercurio has said that the Democrats may well lose their House majority in the 2008 elections.

ElectionProjection.com's Scott Elliott, however, says that the Democratic majority will be tough to beat. At most, he says, the GOP can take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[1]

Republican allied columnist Robert Novak wrote, "However, a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party."[2]

Associated Press wrote an article titled, "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases".[3] After the 9/11 attacks the Republican Party branded itself as the party of President George W. Bush. Various ethics issues now taint Bush and the GOP. With House Republicans actively protecting the Bush administration in Congressional hearings and numerous Republicans under investigation the voters may decide to punish Republican candidates at the ballot box.

Potential races

The Democrats will control the 110th Congress and the House of Representatives.

Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:

Factor Reason Example
Age The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Day 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open. Several representatives are at least 70 years of age, with the oldest being Ralph Hall (R-TX), age 83.
Cabinet appointments Some districts could become open should the incumbent be appointed to a position within the Bush Administration. Two members of the 109th Congress, Rob Portman (R-OH), now the United States Trade Representative and Chris Cox (R-CA), now chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, were the most recent representatives to defect to the Bush Administration.
District Demographics The incumbent represents a district leans or strongly favors the opposing party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote. There are, as of the 2006 elections, about 70 Democratic seats won by Bush in 2004, compared to 4 Republican seats won by Kerry. This is a change from (as of 2004) 44 Democrats in seats Bush won in both 2000 and 2004, as opposed to 11 Republicans in districts won by Gore and Kerry. Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) represent districts that favor the opposing party. Additionally, Tom Davis (R-VA) represents a swing (but Democratic-trending) district while Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) represents a district that is politically balanced and known for competitive races.
Governor Controversies Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana and Missouri races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of their Republican governors. Mark Souder (R-IN), Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis (both R-KY), Charlie Melancon (D-LA), and Michael McCaul and Pete Sessions (R-TX), all of whom represent states with unpopular or controversial governors from their parties.
Health Issues The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forgo plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress. A special election has been scheduled for the seat of Charlie Norwood (R-GA), who died February 13, 2007. Additionally, Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Bill Young (R-FL) pondered retirement for health reasons before running for re-election 2006.
Higher office aspirations The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat, the Governor's Mansion, or for mayor of a major city. Mark Udall (D-CO) will run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). Additionally, Bobby Jindal and Lynn Westmoreland have been rumored to consider future runs for governor in Louisiana and Georgia, respectively, and Chaka Fattah is running for mayor of Philadelphia. Democratic New York congressman Anthony Weiner is also rumored to be considering a run for mayor of New York City in 2009.
Redistricting Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican. Two recent redistrictings, in Texas in 2003 and in Georgia in 2005, have made some Democratic districts more vulnerable. In 2006, Georgia Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall faced tough re-election bids.
Scandals The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party. The Jack Abramoff indian casino lobbying scandal affected several members of Congress, many of whom were defeated in 2006. Some key Abramoff donor recipients, such as John Doolittle (R-CA) are still in office. Additionally, Democrats Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Tim Mahoney (D-FL) took the respective districts of Tom DeLay (R-TX) and Mark Foley (R-FL), both of which heavily favor Republicans, in the previous election.
2008 Presidental campaign Some incumbents could become vulnerable if a presidential candidate unpopular in their district runs as their party's nominee in the 2008 presidential election. Hillary Clinton could be a drag on Democrat fortunes in rural districts in the south and west, for example; while aiding Democrats in New York State. A vocal social conservative Republican nominee might harm GOP prospects in the Blue States. Conversely, John McCain would presumably aid Republican chances in Arizona. An ethnic factor might be present as Barack Obama could aid Democrats running in heavily black districts, while a Democrat holding a heavily Italian-American district like Chris Murphy in Connecticut could be wary of the impact of a Rudy Giuliani candidacy.

Alabama

Alaska

  • Alaska's at-large congressional district— Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since his district covers the entire state, may retire. Young will be 75 in 2008. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, whose father Nick Begich was succeeded by Young after the elder Begich died in a plane crash in 1972, would be a potential Democratic candidate. 2006 nominee and 2004 Green Party Gubernatoral Candidate Diane Benson is another possible candidate, as well as former State House Minority Leader and 2006 Lieutenant-Governor nominee Ethan Berkowitz.

Arizona

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district— Due to numerous allegations of wrongdoing and recent ethics problems, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) could be vulnerable, as he received only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004. Ellen Simon announced her intention to run again, but she dropped out for personal reasons. On April 19, 2007, the FBI raided Renzi's family business in regards to a land-swap deal involving Renzi, who later resigned from the House Intelligence Committee and eight days later denied claims that he was looking to resign from office. So far, only Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt has declared his candidacy. Ellen Simon had announced her candidacy in a re-match, but dropped out of the race in late May. The DCCC has entered into talks with attorney Jim Ledbetter, as well as state Representative Ann Kirkpatrick, who has set up an exploratory committee and whose district includes part of the Navajo nation. An announced candidate is attorney Howard Shanker, who has strong support within the Native American community and who recently won a landmark victory for area tribes when the U.S. Ninth Circuit blocked the expansion of Arizona Snowbowl on sacred Indian grounds in Navajo Nation v. United States Forest Service, No. 06-15371 (9th Cir. March 12, 2007). Other potential Democratic candidates include Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director Steve Owens, 2006 U.S. Senate candidate and wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, former Casa Grande mayor Bob Mitchell, who is the brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell, Pinal County attorney Carter Olson, and former Phoenix TV newscaster Mary Kim Titla. [1] If Renzi does resign, potential Republican candidates include former State Senate President Ken Bennett, State Senator Tom O'Halloran, State Representative Bill Konopnicki, and former Scottsdale Mayor Sydney Hay (who lost the GOP primary to Renzi).
  • Arizona's 3rd congressional district— Outspoken conservative Republican John Shadegg has consistently been re-elected in this Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6) in the northern Phoenix suburbs which gave George W. Bush 57.9 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord has outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even has more cash on hand compared to Shadegg, which could result in an unusually competitive race. However, Shadegg's campaign team has noted that Shadegg's funds are smaller than expected due to Shadegg donating most of the money in 2006 to fellow Republicans in a last-ditch, albeit lackluster attempt to retain control of Congress. [2] A campaign spokesperson has also noted that Shadegg will be well-funded. Shadegg's 2006 opponent, consultant Herb Paine, might also run for a second time. Shadegg's district was previously held by Arizona's junior United States Senator, Jon Kyl.
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district— Freshman U.S. Representative Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (Cook PVI: R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race certain, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. One possible Republican challenger is 2002 Gubernatoral Nominee and former Congressman Matt Salmon, who is currently the chairman of the Arizona Republican Party. Other possible nominees are Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman, former state Representative Laura Knaperek, State Representative Michele Reagan, and former Congressional aide Sean Noble. While Salmon might be the strongest candidate, his candidacy is described by CQPolitics as unlikely. Hallman has opted to seek re-election as Mayor, making a House bid unlikely as well.
  • Arizona's 8th congressional district— Democrat Gabrielle Giffords defeated conservative Republican Randy Graf by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. If Republicans recruit a moderate candidate similar to the district's previous representative, Jim Kolbe, Giffords could have a challenging re-election bid. Some Republicans are hoping that state Senator Tim Bee runs in 2008. Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004.

California

  • California's 4th congressional district— Republican John Doolittle has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes, which could make re-election a challenge in 2008 for Doolittle, who received only 49% of the vote in 2006 compared to 46% for his Democratic challenger, Charlie Brown, who announced in February 2007 that he will run again in 2008. Brown has outraised Doolittle in the first quarter of 2007. Speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted, and his chances were even further damaged when the FBI raided his home in search of incriminating evidence [3]. Many Republicans hope that Doolittle does not seek reelection in 2008. George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004. Potential Republicans who might run include state Assemblyman Ted Gaines, former state Senator Rico Oller, Placer County Supervisor Bruce Kranz and talk radio host Tom Sullivan.
  • California's 11th congressional district— Republicans will look to challenge Democrat Jerry McNerney, who defeated scandal-plagued incumbent Richard Pombo in 2006 with 53% in what has often been a solidly-Republican district (even though this outer East Bay district has become more Democratic recently with the arrival of transplants from the San Francisco Bay Area). Pombo has ruled out a rematch. Former Assemblyman Dean Andal has announced his candidacy [4], and state Assemblyman Guy Houston may run, as well. Bush won here with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • California's 24th congressional district— If Elton Gallegly (R) chooses to retire, this district centered around Ventura County could become a notable race even if Republicans are virtually assured a safe seat. Republican State Senator Tom McClintock, who has name statewide recognition from his several statewide campaigns, would be considered the likely frontrunner were there an open seat. However, McClintock has been an intra-party rival to Gallegly, who had hoped to have a political ally nominated to succeed him. This was believed to be the reason that Gallegly scuttled after he initially considered withdrawing in 2006 when he discovered that his name could not be withdrawn from the ballot unless he was deceased. Bush won 55% here in 2004. The Democrats may field a strong candidate in former Ventura Mayor Richard Francis. 2006 nominee Jill Martinez may run again.
  • California's 42nd congressional district- Incumbent Republican Gary Miller has recently suffered bad press, with four ex-aides accusing him of conflict-of-interest and using his position to profit from the sale of personal land holdings.[4] This Inland Empire-based district is solidly Republican, but if the charges are proven, Miller could have a difficult reelection in 2008 or be forced to retire.
  • California's 47th congressional district— Democrat Loretta Sanchez won 62% of the vote in a district that barely went to George W. Bush with around 50% of the vote to 49% for John Kerry, which could result in a potential opening for Republicans, who have not recruited a strong candidate in years. However, her district is located in one of the more Democratic areas of Orange County, including Anaheim and Santa Ana. Also, Al Gore won this district in 2000 by a comfortable margin.

Colorado

  • Colorado's 2nd congressional district— With the retirement of Republican Senator Wayne Allard, popular incumbent Mark Udall will run for Allard's seat in the Senate, which will leave an open seat in this district. However, Democrats hold a strong edge in this district (John Kerry won 59% here), as it is centered around heavily Democratic Boulder. The only announced candidate is state Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, who got a break in April 2007 when state House Majority Leader Alice Madden announced that she wouldn't run, leaving Fitz-Gerald as the frontrunner. Another possible Democrat is Colorado Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth, and yet another is businessman Jared Polis. Among Republicans, former Eagle County Commissioner Tom Stone is a possible candidate. The race could get interesting if Boulder Mayor Mark Ruzzin chooses to run as the Green Party candidate.
  • Colorado's 4th congressional district— Conservative Republican Marilyn Musgrave, known for her staunch opposition to gay marriage, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Democrat Angie Paccione and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who managed to bevy up 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area, could make her vulnerable in 2008. Democrats may have at least four candidates competing to take on Musgrave, including state Senator Brandon Schaffer [6] and Betsy Markey, businesswoman and regional director for Senator Ken Salazar [7]. Also, Eidsness recently became a Democrat, which could fuel a potential rematch with Musgrave in 2008. 2006 nominee Angie Paccione has announced her intention to stage a rematch. Early polling has allegedly shown Schaffer leading Musgrave in a head-to-head match. Musgrave has been endorsed by the KKK (Ku Klux Klan).
  • Colorado's 5th congressional district— Conservative freshman Republican Doug Lamborn could face a primary challenge from a more moderate Republican with similarities to the district's previous representative, Joel Hefley. Lamborn narrowly won a nasty multi-candidate primary in 2006 and despite worries of vulnerability (Hefley did not endorse Lamborn citing Lamborn's "sleazy" campaign), still won by a 59%-41% margin, becoming the highest vote getter for a GOP Congressional candidate in the state in the 2006 cycle. His district is based in heavily Republican Colorado Springs.
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district— This seat could become open in 2008 if incumbent Tom Tancredo runs for president. If Tancredo decides to run for re-election for his House seat in the southern Denver suburbs instead, he could face a challenge given his controversial views on immigration reform. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind freshman Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (where he prevailed 53%-44%).
  • Colorado's 7th congressional district— Freshmen Democrat Ed Perlmutter won 55% of the vote in this suburban Denver district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 52% in 2004. The district's voter registration is split, with independents constituting a slim majority of 35% compared to Democrats (34%) and Republicans (31%).

Connecticut

  • Connecticut's 2nd congressional district— This was the scene of the closest U.S. House race of 2006, with Democrat Joe Courtney unseating two-term Republican incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney got a big break when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republicans mentioned as possible candidates include former state Senator Cathy Cook, who ran for state Controller in 2006, and Bozrah First Selectman Keith Robbins, and U.S. Naval Academy graduate Sean Sullivan. However, Kerry won 55% here, so Courtney is going to be very hard to unseat.
  • Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Republican Chris Shays won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004. The only Republican House member in all of New England, Shays will likely be a top target of Democrats in 2008. 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run, although he lost in this district to incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, who Shays had endorsed. Other possible Democratic candidates include State Senator Bob Duff and former professional hockey player Mike Richter. Richter recently announced, however, that he is not interested in running in CT-04 at this time. There are still plenty of other strong Democrats interested, including State Senator Andrew MacDonald and former Goldman Sachs executive and community activist Jim Himes. Himes announced his candidacy in April 2007.
  • Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Arguably the most conservative district in Connecticut (even though it went to John Kerry with 50% in 2004), freshman Democrat Chris Murphy could be vulnerable in 2008, despite unseating 24-year incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote. Johnson may seek a rematch. Republican state Senator David Cappiello has announced that he would run [8], and state Senator Sam Caligiuri may run, as well. Some bloggers have suggested talk show host Jim Vicevich. Republican state chairman Chris Healy scoffed at claims Murphy's large campaign warchest(420K in the first quarter of 2007) may scare off potential challengers, as Cappiello filed as a candidate in April 2007 [9] This race is sure to be competitive, with Murphy holding the advantage, but not an insurmountable one.

Delaware

Florida

  • Florida's 2nd congressional district— If incumbent Democrat Allen Boyd retires or runs for another office, this district in the Florida Panhandle could become competitive. Bush won the district 54-46% in 2004 but split it 48-48% with Al Gore (4% went to third parties) in 2000. Boyd won unopposed in 2006 and will be 63 in 2008.
  • Florida's 5th congressional district— In 2004 and 2006, incumbent Republican Ginny Brown-Waite faced political newcomers Robert Whittel and John Russell respectively and won reelection by somewhat diminishing margins of 32% and 20% respectively. She won her seat in 2002 by slightly more than 4,000 votes over incumbent Karen Thurman, currently the head of the state Democratic Party. If Thurman were to run again for her old seat, the race in this Nature Coast district could become highly competitive. At this point this seems unlikely, however.
  • Florida's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Bill Young (R) may retire. There had been speculation in 2006 that he would retire unless either his wife ran or another candidate would file for the Republican nomination. Young ran again based on the latter scenario. Young will be 78 in 2008 and if he does retire, his seat will likely be competitive as George W. Bush only won this district, centered around St. Petersburg and Pinellas County, with 50% to 49% for John Kerry. Also, Al Gore won this district by a comfortable margin in 2000. One possible candidate on the Democratic side is 2006 nominee Samm Simpson, and another is State Senator Charlie Justice. A possible Republican candidate if Young retires is Pinellas County Commissoner Karen Seel.
  • Florida's 16th congressional district— This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Democrat Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a ten-point margin in 2004. Former state Representative Joe Negron, the 2006 Republican candidate, will not run. On the Republican side, state Representative Gayle Harrell has announced her candidacy but faces conservative primary opposition from Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and wealthy attorney Tom Rooney. Mahoney has raised some $400,000 for his re-election in the first quarter of 2007.
  • Florida's 22nd congressional district— First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004. Republicans suffered a setback when Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams announced he would not run. Now, some local political observers are saying that the GOP will not make a serious effort to target Klein. Klein's large campaign treasury may scare off any remaining potential challengers. Republicans who are mentioned are former Army officer and Iraq War veteral Allen West and neurosurgeon Robert Brodner.
  • Florida's 24th congressional district— Republican Tom Feeney could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was reelected by 58% to 42%, less than expected. The Democratic bench in this district is very weak however, and a serious challenger to Feeney will be hard to find. 2006 challenger Clint Curtis has announced he will run again.

Georgia

  • Georgia's 8th congressional district— Democrat Jim Marshall survived a challenge from former Republican Congressman Mac Collins in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid and perhaps a rematch in 2008, which might prompt him to challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead. Retired Air Force Major General Richard Goddard has announced that he would run [10], and his background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall's own military background and well-established credibility on military issues may cancel this out somewhat. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 House election, would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004. Also a potential Republican challenger is state Senator Ross Tolleson, and Collins may seek a rematch. Marshall has been mentioned as a contender for the U.S. Seante in 2008, against first term incubenent Saxby Chambliss.
  • Georgia's 10th congressional district— Republican Charlie Norwood died on February 13, 2007 after a 12-year career in Congress. Whoever succeeds Norwood via special election will likely be considered the frontrunner for 2008. The district, located in northeast Georgia, is heavily Republican, but the dynamics of the special election are not yet clear. Republican state Senator Ralph Hudgens announced his candidacy days after Norwood's death and before the funeral, which made a bad impression. Recently, Republican state Senator Jim Whitehead announced his candidacy and has garnered some key endorsements. Hudgens eventually dropped out, and polling shows Whitehead leading the strongest Democrat, Terry Holley, by a double-digit margin. However, a stronger Democrat, dot-com millionaire James Marlow(former sales director for Yahoo! and founder of AnythingSouthern.com), is entering the race. With Marlow in the race, he is believed to be the new Democratic frontrunner for the seat. Also, Marlow is believed to be the only Democratic candidate strong enough to be able to win the seat. Marlow has run ads attacking Whitehead on Iraq.
  • Georgia's 12th congressional district— Democrat John Barrow may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Republican Congressman Max Burns in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 House election, would have given John Kerry 51% of the vote in 2004. Also, Barrow might challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead in 2008. Another potential Republican candidate is former Augusta Mayor Bob Young.

Hawaii

  • Hawaii's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Neil Abercrombie (D) may retire. Located in a heavily Democratic state, this district is dominated by Honolulu Abercrombie will be 70 in 2008 and if he retires, this race could become competitive; John Kerry won only 52% of the vote here in 2004.

Idaho

  • Idaho's 1st congressional district — Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best for a Republican in a district that gave President Bush 68 percent of the vote in 2004. Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the Republican freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Meanwhile, Larry Grant, Sali's 2006 Democratic opponent, is a likely candidate for the seat again in 2008.[6] Grant is believed to be a strong Demcoratic candidate for this seat. Another Democrat running is retired military officer and counterterrorism consultant Rand Lewis. On the Republican side, recently there has been speculation that former Governor and current Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch may enter the Republican primary against Sali in 2008 on the perceived basis that Sali is a lightning rod for controversy and on the perceived basis of Sali's weak electability and weak electoral strength. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.

Illinois

  • Illinois's 3rd congressional district—Democrat Dan Lipinski appears likely to experience some form of challenge in the Democratic Primary. The reason for the challenge is connected to both ideology and local politics. Ideologically Lipinski is perceived as being to the right of the district. He has a 100% rating with the National Right to Life Committee and 0% ratings with abortion rights groups. Lipinski has also been far more supportive of Bush's Iraq policies than most House Democrats. Locally, there is still resentment how Lipinski's father engineered making Dan Lipinski Congressman without a Democratic Primary contest. Mark Pera of Western Springs has filed FEC paperwork and launched a web site. Pera was formerly the president of the board of education, Lyons Township High School.
  • Illinois's 4th congressional district— Democrat Luis V. Gutierrez has announced that he is retiring and will not seek re-election in 2008. This urban Chicago-based district is heavily Democratic and, and gave John Kerry 79% of its vote in the 2004 presidential election. Cook County Commissioner Roberto Maldanado and Chicago Alderman Ricardo Munoz are the first two declared candidates. Munoz is also the Democratic State Central Committeeman for the Congressional District. Other elected officials are expected to join the contest.
  • Illinois's 6th congressional district— Republican Peter Roskam squeaked into his first term in Congress by 51% to 49% and represents a suburban district that slightly went to George W. Bush in 2004. 2006 Democratic candidate Tammy Duckworth has not ruled out another run. Bush won 53% here to 47% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Illinois's 8th congressional district— Democrat Melissa Bean may again be a target of Republicans, who unsuccessful tried to unseat her in 2006, when Bean won 51% of the vote after defeating veteran incumbent Phil Crane with 52% in 2004 in a district that George W. Bush won with 55% to 45% for John Kerry. There was some speculation that attorney Kathy Salvi, who ran in 2006 but lost the Republican primary, would run. However, on May 1, 2007, the Daily Herald reported that Salvi would not run. Businessman Steve Greenberg, declined to run for Senate, but left the door open to running for this House seat.[7]
  • Illinois's 10th congressional district— Mark Kirk (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47% in an upscale suburban Chicago district that voted for John Kerry with 54% in 2004. In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk's 2006 opponent Dan Seals is likely to run again, and another potential challenger is former Clinton presidential adviser Jay Footlik. David Kalbfleisch The founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party has announced that he will run for the seat.[8] Kalbfleisch is a Navy veteran and seems to be campaigning by closing linking himself with Iraq Veterans Against the War.
  • Illinois's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Judy Biggert (R) may retire. Biggert is known to have moderate positions. Her district includes southern Dupage, northern Will, and a part of Cook counties; an area which has changed much demographically in recent years. Biggert will be 71 in 2008. Bush won 55% here to 45% for John Kerry.
  • Illinois's 14th congressional district— Rumors have been swirling that former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert will not run for re-election in 2008. The Mark Foley congressional page scandal has caused some damage to his reputation even though Hastert won 60% of the vote in 2006 and 69% in 2004, when George W. Bush won with 55% in this district to 45% for John Kerry. Conservative state Senator Chris Lauzen has formed an exploritory committee to run if Hastert does retire,[9] although he would probably receive primary competition from a Hastert ally. A few Democrats have declared intent to run. John Laesch ran against Hastert in 2006 and has expressed intent to run in 2008.[10] State Represenative Linda Chapa LaVia has formed a federal campaign committee to run, but has stated she would not run if Hastert seeks re-election.[11] Like Laesch, Chapa LaVia is a veteran of the U.S. military. Jotham Stein, a Geneva attorney and Bill Foster, a Fermilab physicist, are also running.[12] Geneva businessman Joe Serra has also expressed interest in the race.[13]
  • Illinois's 15th congressional district— Rep. Tim Johnson (R) has already been targeted by a Democratic Party aligned interest group for his vote against the Iraq supplemental funding bill that called for withdrawing U.S. troops in 2008.
  • Illinois's 16th congressional district— Rep. Don Manzullo (R) has avoided serious challenges in the past. Robert G. “Bob” Abboud (D) is the village president of the exceedingly wealthy Chicago suburb, Barrington Hills. Abboud is the president of RGA Labs Inc. and reportedly quite wealthy.[14]

Indiana

  • Indiana's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Democrat Joe Donnelly won by 54% to 46% in this Republican-leaning district that narrowly went to George W. Bush with 55% of the vote to 45% for John Kerry in 2004, largely as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Even though the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels may make it difficult for Republicans to take back this seat in 2008, the GOP will look to challenge Donnelly. One possible Republican candidate is state Senator Thomas Weatherwax.
  • Indiana's 5th congressional district— Twelve-term incumbent Dan Burton (R) may retire. Burton's district stretches from Wabash in northeast Indiana to the Indianapolis suburbs. Burton will be 70 in 2008. Regardless of Burton's decision, former Marion County Coroner John McGoff has announced his candidacy.[15] McGoff has criticized Burton for missing 19 votes in January while playing at a celebrity golf tournament in California. Bush won 71% here in 2004.
  • Indiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Julia Carson (D) may retire. Carson's district is centered around urban Indianapolis and usually votes Democratic. Carson will be 70 in 2008 and won reelection in 2006 by less than expected. Democrats who might be interested in succeeding her include state Representative Gregory Porter, state Representative Carolene Mays,and Center Township Trustee Carl L. Drummer. On the Republican side, wealthy automobile dealer Eric Dickerson, who ran against Carson in 2006 and made a credible showing, may run again. Kerry won 59% here.
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district— In 2006, freshman Democrat Brad Ellsworth unseated conservative John Hostettler by a 61% to 39% margin, the size of which surprised even his fellow Democrats. He will be a formidable candidate for reelection, but no incumbent can rest easy in this district, known as "The Bloody Eighth" for its history of rejecting incumbents and hotly contested races. Republicans suffered a setback when Gibson County Prosecutor Rob Krieg announced that he wouldnt run. Bush won 61% here to 39% for John Kerry.
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district— Democrat Baron Hill narrowly won his old job back by 50% to 47% here in 2006. The district went to George W. Bush with 59% of the vote. Hill and Mike Sodrel have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain should Sodrel seek another rematch. Even absent another Sordel campaign, Republicans will likely contest this district. Recently there has been speculation that Hill will run for governor in 2008 instead. Bush won 59% here to 41% for John Kerry.

Iowa

  • Iowa's 1st congressional district— In 2006, liberal Democrat Bruce Braley won his first term by 54% to 43% to succeed Republican Jim Nussle, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor that year. The district, which covers the northeastern part of Iowa, leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. It's possilbe that Braley will be challenged by Jeff Bullock, President of the University of Dubuque, in 2008.
  • Iowa's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Dave Loebsack won 51% of the vote in an upset victory over 30-year incumbent Republican Jim Leach. John Kerry won this district with 55% in 2004. There are some rumors that former professional baseball player Cal Eldred may run. If so, this strongly Democratic district could see another close race in 2008.
  • Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) may retire because of age and medical issues. This district includes the capital city of Des Moines. Boswell will be 74 in 2008 and had a relatively close reelection in 2006. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti ran a strong campaign that year and may run again. Another potential challenger is state Senator David Zaun. Bush won this district with 49.7% compared to 49.6% for John Kerry in 2004, a razor-thin victory.

Kansas

  • Kansas's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Nancy Boyda narrowly upset Republican Jim Ryun in 2006. Her district gave George W. Bush 58% of the vote to 40% for John Kerry in 2004, and she could be vulnerable, as her victory was aided by infighting between the moderate and conservative factions of Kansas Republicans, which hurt turnout numbers for Ryun. On January 29, 2007, Ryun announced that he would challenge Boyda for his old seat in 2008. However, in 2006, Ryun was damaged over a Washington, D.C. real estate purchase and Boyda may very well revive the issue. More recently, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins announced that she would also run, but conservatives dislike her. Another possible candidate is Republican state Representative Lee Tafanelli, an Iraq War veteran. The campaign for the GOP nomination has already turned nasty, with Jenkins accusing Ryun of having ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Kentucky

  • Kentucky's 6th congressional district— Republicans could target Democrat Ben Chandler in 2008. In 2004, George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 42% for John Kerry, which includes Lexington and the state capital of Frankfort. In 2006, Chandler won with no Republican opponent. Despite the district's Republican lean, Chandler is very popular there and would be very difficult to unseat. He has been mentioned as a candidate for the U.S. Senate against Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Louisiana

  • Louisiana's 1st congressional district— Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal is running for governor in 2007. If he wins that election, then there will be a special election to succeed him as U.S. Representative. The district includes Tangipahoa, St. Tammany, Washington, and parts of Jefferson, Orleans and St. Charles parishes. Although the district has a higher number of registered Democrats, it has voted Republican in the past. If Jindal is elected governor, one possible candidate for his House seat would be Republican state Senator Julie Quinn. Gilda Reed, Ph.D. is running as the Democratic candidate for the seat.
  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Bill Jefferson surprised many when he went on to win re-election in his New Orleans-based congressional seat, defeating another Democrat, state Representative Karen Carter, with 57% in a December 2006 run-off. In spite of that surprising margin, he could face a primary challenge in 2008, or the district could even become open should Jefferson, who has come under fire for allegedly taking thousands of dollars in bribes (including money law enforcement found in Jefferson's freezer), either resign or be indicted and convicted and thus expelled from Congress. Karen Carter may run again in 2008.
  • Louisiana's 6th congressional district— Republican Congressman Richard Baker is popular in this marginal district dominated by Baton Rouge, but he has been approached about running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu. Should Baker accept, it would give Democrats a shot at winning this seat. This would be made easier by the large numbers of black voters who have settled in Baton Rouge and the surrounding area after Hurricane Katrina. At this time however, Baker seems unlikely to run for Senate.

Maine

  • Maine's 1st congressional district— Representative Tom Allen is running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Susan Collins in 2008. Democrats would be favored to hold this seat but would not assured of victory; John Kerry won 55% here in 2004. Democrats who have already announced include state Senator Ethan Strimling and former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, who ran against Collins in 2002. Other Democrats who may run include former state Senator Michael Brennen, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former Portland Mayor Jill Duson, and Iraq War veteran Adam Cote may also run. On the Republican side, former state Representative Darlene Curley, who ran in 2006 and lost by a wide margin, is expected to run again. Other Republican possibilities include state Senator Jonathan Courtney and Small Business Administration official Charlie Summers, another former state legislator.

Maryland

  • Maryland's 1st congressional district- Congressman Wayne Gilchrest may face a tough primary challenge as a result of his vote for Nancy Pelosi's bill to set a timetable on the Iraq War. Only 2 Republicans voted for the bill, which passed 218-to-212. The race may become competitive if Gilchrest is defeated in the primary. Gilchrest is a moderate Republican who may run for the senate in 2010, and also voted on April 25, 2007 for another Democratic Iraq War bill which passed 218-208. A likely primary opponent include is state Senator Andrew P. Harris. Among Democrats, Queen Anne's County State Attorney Frank Kratovil has announced he will form an expolartory committee. George W. Bush won with 62% here in 2004.
  • Maryland's 4th congressional district— Coming off a close primary against political upstart Donna Edwards in 2006, Democratic Congressman Al Wynn may again face a competitive primary in 2008, although there will be little competition in the general election as the district is overwhelmingly Democratic. Edwards recently announced her intenion to run again in 2008. Wynn annoyed liberals by voting for the Iraq War, the 2005 Bankruptcy bill, and the repeal of the estate tax in the 109th Congress.
  • Maryland's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Roscoe Bartlett (R) may retire. Bartlett's district is one of the more Republican seats in heavily Democratic Maryland, and includes several western cities such as Frederick and Hagerstown. Bartlett will be 82 in 2008, and received 58% in 2006, nine points smaller than his 2004 showing of 67%, against a lesser-known opponent. 2006 challenger Andrew Duck may run again.

Massachusetts

Michigan

  • Michigan's 7th congressional district— Republican Tim Walberg won this Republican-leaning district (which went to to George W. Bush with 54% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004) with 51% of the vote in 2006 after defeating freshman incumbent Joe Schwarz with financial backing from the conservative Club for Growth. He could face a tough race in 2008, especially if Schwartz challenges him as a Democrat, which may happen. 2006 nominee Sharon Reiner has announced she will run again. Former State Senator Jim Berryman will also challenge Walberg.
  • Michigan's 9th congressional district— In January 2006, Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) announced his intent to seek re-election in 2008. Knollenberg spent $2.7 million to keep his seat in the House.[17] Although his past Democratic challengers have not received support from the national party, Knollenberg's seat has now been identified as a "target" for the Democrats in 2008.[18] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting Congressional Districts where Republicans garnered less than 55% of the vote.[19] Knollenberg, who will be 75 in 2008, won only 52% of the vote in 2006 in this eastern Oakland County district that gave George W. Bush only 50% of the vote in 2004 and is far from the Republican stronghold it once was. The district was once the most Republican in Metro Detroit, having sent Knollenberg's predecessor, Republican Bill Broomfield, to Congress for 36 consecutive years. Possible Democratic opponents include state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, the 2002 Democratic nominee for state Attorney General and radio talk show hostess Nancy Skinner, who was Knollenberg's 2006 opponent.
  • Michigan's 12th congressional district— Incumbent Sander Levin (D), brother of senator Carl Levin, may retire. Rep. Levin will be 77 in 2008. If Rep. Levin does retire, one possible candidate for his seat would be his son, Andy Levin, who very narrowly lost an election to the Michigan State Senate in 2006. Democrats would be favored to hold this district, which Kerry won with 61%.

Minnesota

  • Minnesota's 1st congressional district— George W. Bush won 51% of the vote in this southern Minnesota district to 48% for John Kerry, which DFLer Tim Walz won in 2006. Walz could face a tough race, as he unseated 12-year incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht by 53% to 47%, and possibly a rematch with Gutknetcht. Another potential Republican candidate is Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau. Former state Senate Minority Leader Dick Day formed an exploratory committee in February 2007 and state Representative Randy Demmer has also announced.
  • Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Keith Ellison (DFL) may face a primary challenge perhaps because the district's previous representative, Martin Sabo, refused to endorse him, emblematic of contention among local DFLers over Ellison's nomination. Also, he won only 55% in his first race despite John Kerry winning 71% of the vote in the district, although Ellison did defeat both his closest rivals, Republican Alan Fine and Independent Tammy Lee, by a commanding 34 points. His district is based in Minneapolis.
  • Minnesota's 6th congressional district- Republican incumbent Michelle Bachman was one of the GOP's success stories in 2006, defeating a weak Democrat, Patty Wetterling, by a larger-than-extected margin. But she recently got bad press when she claimed that Iran had a secret plan to partition Iraq , but was unable to produce evidence. This has won her the attention of the Democrats, who have now targeted her for defeat. The DCCC has approached state Senator Tarryl Clark and Stearns County Attorney Janelle Kendall (DFL-MN) into running.

Missouri

  • Missouri's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Ike Skelton, a conservative Democrat, may retire. Skelton will be 77 in 2008. Republicans would have a shot at winning this rural, conservative district in west-central Missouri if Skelton were to retire. Bush won 63% here. Skelton is unlikely to retire since he has become chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.
  • Missouri's 9th congressional district— Republican incumbent Kenny Hulshof is seeking to become President of the University of Missouri [13]. If he succeeds, there will be a special election to replace him. The district, covering roughly the northeastern portion of Missouri, is conservative and votes for Republicans more often than not, but it's not politically secure for Republicans. With George W. Bush widely unpopular, Democrats could have a shot at winning if they were to run a well-known, well-funded candidate. Names mentioned include state Senator Chuck Graham, state Senator Wes Shoemyer, and state Representative Judy Baker. Possible Republican candidates include Boone County Judge Kevin Crane, state Representative Steve Hobbs, and prominent businessman Greg Steinhoff, who is currently Director of the state Department of Economic Development.

Montana

  • Montana's at-large congressional district- Four-term Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg is generally popular in Montana and would be a solid favorite for reelection if he wants it. But there is speculation that he may run for the U.S. Senate against Max Baucus, whom he nearly unseated in 1996 in spite of being outspent by a 3-to-1 margin. If he does, there will be a highly competitive race to succeed him. Yellowstone County Commissioner Bill Kennedy plans to run regardless of Rehberg's decision. Other Democrats thinking of running include Jim Foley, Executive Assistant Vice President for the University of Montana, State Democratic Party Chair Dennis McDonald, state Senator Jesse Laslovich, and state Representative Dan Villa.

Nebraska

  • Nebraska's 2nd congressional district- When Republican incumbent Lee Terry won his first term in 1998, he had promised to limit himself to three terms. Almost immediately after winning, he announced he was going back on his word. He was thought to have overcome that issue after winning comfortably in 2004 against a credible opponent. But in 2006, he won by 55% to 45%, by far the weakest showing of his career, against Jim Esch, a political unknown who ran an under-the-radar grassroots campaign. Esch said shortly after losing the race that he would likely run again in 2008. Terry may run for the U.S. Senate in 2008 if incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel retires.
  • Nebraska's 3rd congressional district- Republican incumbent Adrian M. Smith won his first term with only 54% in a district that gave George W. Bush 75% in 2004. Democrats might look to challenge Smith in 2008, but Smith is going to be pretty hard to unseat in a presidential year because of the district's heavy conservative lean. Also, Smith might be challenged in the primary by antoher Republican on the basis of Smith's weak electability and weak electoral strength. One posssible Democratic candidate is Scott Kleeb, the Democratic nominee for the seat in 2006 who made a pretty impressive showing in the district by winning 46% despite the district's heavy conservative lean.

Nevada

  • Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Republican Dean Heller was elected to this seat with 50% of the vote in 2006. He could face a serious challenge in 2008, especially if newly elected state Treasurer Kate Marshall decides to challenge him, as some speculate. He may also face University of Nevada Regent Jill Derby, his 2006 opponent, who has since become Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party. Assemblywoman Debbie Smith is also considered a possible candidate.

New Hampshire

  • New Hampshire's 1st congressional district— Democrat Carol Shea-Porter squeaked into Congress with 51% of the vote to 49% for incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley – who in January 2007 announced that he would seek a rematch with Shea-Porter in 2008 – in one of the greatest upsets of the 2006 election cycle. George W. Bush narrowly won her district in 2004. Shea-Porter has continued her very vocal anti-war stance in office and may be fueling Republican interest in regaining the seat.
  • New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Paul Hodes upended Republican incumbent Charlie Bass in 2006, taking a 53% to 45% victory in a district John Kerry narrowly won. Given that New Hampshire has traditionally leaned Republican – though it has been trending more Democratic recently – the GOP might look to challenge Hodes. Possible candidates include former state Senator Bruce Keough, state Senator Bob Clegg, venture capitalist Stephen Gray, and former state Senator Chuck Morse.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 1st congressional district— Democrat Rob Andrews could run for the Senate seat held by Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg should Lautenberg retire, even though Lautenberg has stated his intention to run for reelection. The district, based in Camden, is strongly Democratic. Kerry won 61% here. If Andrews seeks re-election he should win it easily.
  • New Jersey's 10th congressional district— Democrat Don Payne, who is often described as the most consistently liberal member of New Jersey's congressional delegation, may retire. Payne's district is the most Democratic in the state, centered around Newark. It gave John Kerry 82% of the vote in 2004. Payne will be 74 in 2008.

New Mexico

  • New Mexico's 1st congressional district— The 2006 race between incumbent Republican Heather Wilson and Democratic state Attorney General Patricia Madrid was a cliffhanger, with Wilson being reelected by 861 votes. John Kerry narrowly won this Albuquerque-based district in 2004. Madrid would be considered a potential 2008 challenger, as would Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, who might instead run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Pete Domenici. Other Democrats thinking of running include Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg, state Auditor Hector Balderas, state Representative Al Park, Albuquerque City Council President Martin Heinrich, state Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino,New Mexico Health Secretary Michelle Grisham and former Congressional aide Terry Brunner. The already vulnerable Wilson has been thrown on the defensive by charges that she may have improperly sought to interfere with an investigation by the U.S. Attorney's office in New Mexico. In April 2007 Heinrich formed an exploratory committee.
  • New Mexico's 2nd congressional district- Republican incumbent Steve Pearce had a somewhat difficult reelection in this conservative, southeastern New Mexico district last year, but won with 60%. The area is usually Republican-voting, but Democrats sometimes win elections here. Pearce is being challenged by Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, who runs the New Mexico Rural Development Response Council, which works on economic development projects in small, economically struggling communities. Other Democrats thinking of running include retired Presbyterian minister Al Kissling, the Democratic nominee against Pearce in 2006, and state Representative Joseph Cervantes.

New York

  • New York's 1st congressional district- Timothy Bishop (D) was first elected in 2002. A former academic, Bishop has compiled a solid liberal voting record. This East End district retains a strong independent streak, and Bishop, who enjoys strong backing from Newsday, may be vulnerable to a challenge from a moderate Republican.
  • New York's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Ed Towns (D) may retire. His district is based in Brooklyn and is overwhelmingly Democratic. Towns will be 74 in 2008. A potential Democratic successor is State Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries. Jeffries recently ramped up his fundraising efforts, in a sign that there might be a race to succeed Towns in the near future.
  • New York's 13th congressional district— Staten Island Republican Vito Fossella won 56.5% of the vote here in 2006 in what is arguably the most Republican area of heavily Democratic New York City. There should be no surprise if Democrats try to make an attempt to sweep NYC, including Staten Island, in 2008. The DCCC is looking at candidates, including state Senator Diane Savino and state Assemblyman Mike Cusick. New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia, who represents a tiny part of the Brooklyn portion of the district in the Council, but doesn't live in Nadler's district is also considering a candidacy. 2006 Candidate Steve Harrison is also rumored to be seeking to run again. [20]
  • New York's 18th congressional district— Liberal incumbent Nita Lowey (D) may retire. Lowey's district is centered around the northern suburbs of New York City mainly in Westchester County. Lowey will be 71 in 2008. It is a non majority district with a makeup of approximately 40% Democrat, 35% Independent, and 25% Republican. While it would be difficult, a moderate Republican with substantial backing could conceivably carry this district. This would be very difficult in the current political climate for the GOP, and could be practically impossible should Hillary Clinton become the Democratic nominee for President. Conversely, were Rudy Giuliani the Republican presidential nominee their chances to win an open seat here would be greatly improved
  • New York's 20th congressional district— Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006 by 53% to 47%, the same margin with which George W. Bush won this district, which includes the north Hudson Valley and Saratoga Springs, in 2004. Republicans have identified Gillibrand as a top target for 2008, as they believe that Sweeney's personal issues caused his defeat, not a change in voter behavior in this traditional GOP stronghold. Also, Gillibrand's victory was the 15th Democratic pickup that resulted in the Democrats' takeover of the House, as her party needed 15 seats to take over. Possible candidates to challenge her include former state Assemblyman and 2006 gubernatorial candidate John Faso, who was also nearly elected state Controller in 2002, New York Secretary of State Alexander Treadwell, Saratoga County District Attorney Jim Murphy, state Senator Elizabeth Little, former Mayoral aide Richard Wagner, and state Assemblyman Roy McDonald. Gillibrand has raised over half a million dollars so far for her re-election, an impressive warchest that may scare off potential challengers. In April 2007 Treadwell began running for the seat.
  • New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) won by 51% to 49% in 2006 in a Democratic-leaning district that includes Syracuse. Syracuse Mayor Matthew Driscoll announced that he would serve out his term as Mayor until December of 2009, effectively ending speculation that he would seek Walsh's Congressional seat [16]. In 2004, Walsh was the only unopposed Republican to represent a district that voted for John Kerry. Walsh's 2006 Democratic opponent, Dan Maffei, has announced that he would seek a rematch.[21]
  • New York's 29th congressional district— Republican Randy Kuhl had a close race in 2006, surviving a challenge from Democrat Eric Massa by a 51% to 49% margin. His Elmira and suburban Rochester district gave Bush 56% in 2004. Massa has said he will run again in 2008. Despite his district being the most Republican in New York, Kuhl is considered a weak incumbent who has had multiple difficult reelections in the past. Massa has announced that he will seek a rematch. Another Democrat who has announced is David Nachbar, who is Senior Vice President of Human Resources for Bausch & Lomb and should have personal wealth to bring to the campaign.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Walter Jones, Jr., a conservative former Democrat, represents a solidly Republican-voting coastal district. However, his increasingly outspoken opposition to tbe Bush Administration's policy regarding the Iraq War has angered some pro-war conservatives. As a result, he faces a credible primary challenge. Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin, a former infantry officer, is running [17]. McLaughlin has denounced the incumbent's anti-war stance, believing it isn't helpful to the war effort. The victor of the primary would be shoo-in for general election.
  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Republican Robin Hayes barely hung on in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell by a 329-vote margin. This seat likely will be competitive again in 2008 because of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which he first opposed but voted for because of pressure from House Republican leadership. Kissell has already declared his candidacy for the 2008 race, but he might face a primary challenge from several better-known, better-funded, and more experienced Democrats.
  • North Carolina's 11th congressional district— Conservative Democrat Heath Shuler won 54% to 46% against scandal-plagued incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006, in a district that gave 57% of its vote to George W. Bush and 43% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. The district includes the western areas of North Carolina, including Asheville. This race could be competitive, but Shuler's social conservativsm and economic populism should help his chances at reelection, even in a GOP-leaning district. Taylor is considering a rematch, although many local Republicans hope he doesn't run again. Other possible Republican candidates include state Senator Tom Apocada, Transylvania County District Attorney Jeff Hunt, Buncombe County Commissioner Nathan Ramsey, and attorney John Armor.

North Dakota

Ohio

  • Ohio's 1st congressional district— Republican Steve Chabot won by 52% to 48% in 2006, compared to 60% in 2004. His district barely went to George W. Bush with 50% in 2004 and includes the western portion of the Cincinnati area. One possible Democratic opponent is state House Democratic Whip Steve Driehaus.
  • Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Republican Jean Schmidt barely held on by a 51% to 49% margin against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Her district is a heavily Republican one, covering the eastern portions of Greater Cincinnati. Bush won 64% here in 2004. Wulsin has declared her intention to run again.
  • Ohio's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Mike Turner (R), a former mayor of Dayton, won his last race with 58% of the vote. However, some Democrats think that he has never faced strong competition. Turner's seat was previously held by Democrat Tony P. Hall for 24 years. If Hall were to run again for his old seat, this would be a highly competitive race. This Dayton-based district narrowly went for Bush with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Ohio's 12th congressional district— Republican Pat Tiberi faced an expensive race in 2006 against one of this district’s former congressmen, Bob Shamansky (D), who briefly served in the early 1980s, but survived with 58%. George W. Bush barely won this district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Ohio's 14th congressional district— Republican Steve LaTourette, whose district is centered around suburban Cleveland, won 58% of the vote in 2006 against a weak opponent. He represents a swing district where no party has a clear advantage over the other. Bush won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry. Appeals Court Judge William O'Neill is a likely Democratic contender. 2006 challenger Lewis Katz may seek a rematch.
  • Ohio's 16th congressional district— Longtine incumbent Ralph Regula (R) may retire. Regula, whose district includes the Canton area, garnered only 58% in the Republican primary against lesser-known Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller in 2006. Regula will be 84 in 2008. If he does retire, his son, former Stark County Commissioner Richard Regula would be a potential Republican candidate to succeed him, as would Miller. Democratic state Senator John Boccieri has announced that he will run regardless of Regula's decision [19]. This district narrowly went for Bush with 53% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district— Democrat Zack Space may be vulnerable in 2008 as his district, located in southeastern Ohio, went to George W. Bush with 57% to 43% for John Kerry in 2004, although Space won his first term in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Republicans were forced to select a new candidate, state Senator Joy Padgett, after Rep. Bob Ney dropped out of the race following his conviction in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. It turned out that Padgett had financial controversies of her own, which Ohio voters were in no mood to tolerate. One possible Republican candidate in 2008 is state Senator Jay Hottinger.

Oregon

  • Oregon's 2nd congressional district— There has been speculation among Oregon Republicans that Greg Walden, the incumbent Republican in this district, may not seek re-election to get a head start on a campaign for Governor in 2010. This district is based in Eastern Oregon and is heavily Republican. Bush won with 60% here. A potential Republican successor would be state Senator Jason Atkinson, who ran a credible race for Governor in 2006, losing the Republican primary but polling better than expected. This district would be very difficult for any Democrat to win, but one who could have a chance in an open seat race would be onetime Republican State Senator Ben Westlund, though he may run for U.S. Senate or state Treasurer in 2008 instead. 2006 challenger Carol Voisin may run again.
  • Oregon's 5th congressional district— Democrat Darlene Hooley may face a competitive race this marginal Willamette Valley district George W. Bush barely won with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004, while Hooley received 53% of the vote. She was reelected in 2006 with 54% to her closest opponent's 43%. There has been speculation in the past that Hooley would retire, though this seems unlikely now that Democrats in the majority in the House.

Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district— Republican Phil English could have a challenge in 2008, as he represents an Erie-based district that gave George W. Bush 53% of the vote and 47% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004 and English 54% in 2006 against a political newcomer with no political experience.. The DCCC is trying to recruit Erie County Councilman Kyle Foust to run against English.2006 challenger Dr. Steven Porter may seek a rematch.
  • Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— First-term Democrat Joe Sestak will likely face a challenge from the GOP for this Delaware County-based district outside of Philadelphia that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004 and was previously represented by Republican Curt Weldon, who has become the focus of a recent FBI lobbying investigation. Sestak defeated Weldon 56% to 44%. Some are talking of U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan challenging him in 2008. Also mentioned as a possible challenger is Delaware County Councilman Andy Reilly.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Chris Carney (D) may face a difficult reelection bid in this heavily Republican district he won after widely-publicized allegations of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood’s extramarital affair with and alleged abuse of Cynthia Ore, who later settled for an undisclosed amount. Carney defeated Sherwood 53% to 47%. Possible Republican opponents include US Attorney Tom Marino, state Senator Lisa Baker, state Representative Karen Boback, state Representative Brett Feese, Kingston Mayor Jim Haggerty, and former U.S. Justice Department official Joe Peters, who ran for state Auditor in 2006. Bush won here 60% to 40% for John Kerry.
  • Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district— Incumbent John Murtha (D) might retire, but such a move is less likely now given that he ran for Majority Leader after Democrats gained control of the House in 2006. His outspoken opposition to the Iraq War could still make him a Republican target if he does not retire, even though he defeated a credible opponent with 61% of the vote in 2006. Murtha will be 76 in 2008. John Kerry won 51% here.
  • Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district— Republican Tim Murphy was reelected in 2006 with 58% of the vote against a little-known Democrat in this suburban Pittsburgh district that George W. Bush won here with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004, an indication that Murphy could be vulnerable against a stronger opponent. Democrats are trying to entice Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato to run, although he has yet to show any interest.

South Carolina

South Dakota

  • South Dakota's at-large congressional district— In 2006, U.S. Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin was reelected easily against token opposition. But in 2008, she may face a more formidible opponent. She got a break when state Public Utilities Commissioner Dustin Johnson decided not to run against her, as he has already won elective statewide office, giving him name identification. However, state Representative Joel Dykstra may run, although Dykstra may run for the U.S. Senate if Governor Mike Rounds chooses not to [20]. Another possible Republican candidate is Sioux Falls City Councilman Pat Costello.

Texas

Main article: Texas United States House elections, 2008
  • Texas's 4th congressional district— 13-term incumbent and former Democrat Ralph Hall (R), the oldest current member of the House of Representatives, may retire. Hall's district takes in northeast Texas, including cities such as Sherman and Texarkana as well as Dallas suburbs such as Rockwall and McKinney. Hall will be 85 in 2008. In something of a surprise, former Frisco Mayor Kathy Seei announced that she would run as a Republican, although it's unclear whether she will stay in the race if Hall definitely seeks reelection. If Hall does retire, there is speculation that his son, Rockwall County District Judge Brett Hall, will run to succeed him.
  • Texas's 14th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Ron Paul, known for his strongly libertarian – fiscally conservative, socially liberal – positions and his slogan, "The Taxpayers' Best Friend," may retire or run for president. Paul will be 73 in 2008. His district covers much of the central portion of the Texas Gulf Coast, including the communities of Galveston, Bay City, and Victoria. As a whole, it votes Republican, although Democrats sometimes win elections there. Already, Eric Dondero, a former Senior Aide to Paul, has announced he would run even if Paul sought reelection, as has Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peder. Other Republicans thinking of running include Republican party activist Bobby Eberle.


  • Texas's 17th congressional district— Republicans will look to unseat Chet Edwards (D) in this heavily Republican district that covers Waco and the Bryan-College Station area. His district gave George W. Bush 70% of the vote in 2004 and includes Crawford, the home of Bush’s ranch. Edwards was the sole survivor among the Texas Democrats targeted by the mid-decade redistricting effective in 2004, reelected that year with just 51%, but easily defeated Iraq War veteran Van Taylor(who was highly touted as a top-flight candidate by the GOP) in 2006. He has been mentioned as a possible candidate against Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn in 2008.
  • Texas's 22nd congressional district— This seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance activities. Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election, facing only a Libertarian and write-in opposition from Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman, won the special election held on the same day and in which Lampson did not run, and she served as a member of congress for almost two months before Lampson was sworn in. Lampson is expected to face a difficult race in 2008. He represents a heavily Republican constituency that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a 2-1 margin, and is dominated by the heavily Republican southern suburbs of Houston, including Sugar Land, portions of Pasadena and Pearland, and Houston's Clear Lake master-planned development. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Sekula-Gibbs may run against Lampson in the 2008 election; however she caused a stir with voters after leveling charges of unprofessional behavior against former DeLay aides and called for an ethics investigation. Those aides later claimed Sekula-Gibbs herself was unprofessional. Popular three-term Sugar Land mayor David Wallace, who was snubbed by GOP precinct chairs in favor of Sekula-Gibbs – to the displeasure of Republican officials in Fort Bend County – in selecting the 2006 replacement Republican nominee, is also a potential candidate, as is Harris County Tax Assessor Paul Bettencourt. In an added development, Lampson has had serious health problems, including recent quadruple heart bypass surgery, raising questions as to whether he will run again. Despite this, Lampson is one of the most talked-about challengers to Senator John Cornyn in 2008. Should Lampson run for Senate, a Democratic replacement may be Richard Morrison, who received 45% of the vote in a 2004 challenge to DeLay.
  • Texas's 23rd congressional district— Former Democratic Representative Ciro Rodriguez won a 54% to 46% victory in a runoff against Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla on December 12, 2006. Rodriguez was aided by low turnout, especially in the conservative areas of the district. His seat is a natural target for Republicans in 2008. The district, which is a majority Hispanic one to the south and west of downtown San Antonio, stretching across West Texas into Del Rio and other towns along the Mexican border and Big Bend National Park, reaching all the way to just east of El Paso, is politically marginal. With Bonilla accepting a job in the Bush administration, there will be no rematch. Wealthy attorney Francisco Canseco has announced that he would run [21], and it's possible that Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson will run, as well.
  • Texas's 32nd congressional district— Republican Pete Sessions is known to have ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, which his eventual Democratic opponent is likely to make an issue in his 2008 race. While Sessions improved his margin from his contentious, extremely costly 2004 campaign against a fellow incumbent, Democrat Martin Frost – who was displaced from his previous district in the controversial 2003 redistricting engineered by Tom DeLay – it was only by two percentage points (from 54% in 2004 to 56% in 2006). By contrast, in 2004 George W. Bush won 59% of the vote in this district, which includes several affluent areas of north Dallas, including Highland Park, and significant chunks of the suburbs of Irving and Richardson. If Frost were to run again, this race would be competitive, particularly if his ethics problems became more serious.

Utah

  • Utah's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Jim Matheson is a perennial target of the GOP every election cycle, as his district was won by George W. Bush with 66% of the vote in 2004. Matheson received 59% in 2006 and 55% in 2004. The district is based in eastern Utah and includes Moab and Salt Lake City. If Utah receives a fourth seat in the 110th Congress as part of a DC voting rights compromise, Matheson will likely be placed in a much more Democratic district centered around the relatively Liberal Salt Lake City, but legislation toward this end failed to reach the floor in the 109th Congress. Matheson may also run for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Orrin Hatch should Hatch be appointed Attorney General of the United States. Were this seat to become open, the GOP would have a real chance of winning it.
  • Utah's 3rd congressional district— Republican Chris Cannon won 55% of the vote in the Republican primary in 2006 against businessman John Jacob, who got 45% of the vote in the Republican primary, due to Cannon's stance on illegal immigration. He may very well face another serious primary challenge in 2008. Also, he may face a difficult reelection bid in 2008 if former Congressman Bill Orton, who held this seat for 3 terms prior to being very narrowly defeated by Cannon in 1996, decides to run again for his old seat. Cannon may also run for the U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by Republican Orrin Hatch should Hatch be appointed Attorney General of the United States. Were this seat to become open, the GOP would be heavily favored to keep control of it.

Virginia

  • Virginia's 9th congressional district— George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 40% for John Kerry in 2004, which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher. If Boucher was to retire, this district will likely experience a competitive race. Boucher will be 62 in 2008.
  • Virginia's 10th congressional district— George W. Bush won 55% of this district in 2004, which is held by Republican Frank Wolf, who faced a challenge from Democrat Judy Feder in 2006. Feder may seek a rematch. Democrats have been making gains in Northern Virginia recently, which could make re-election tough for Wolf in 2008. Wolf's district covers Loudoun and part of Fairfax counties.

Washington

  • Washington's 8th congressional district— Dave Reichert (R) won a close 51% to 49% re-election bid against Democratic former Microsoft product manager Darcy Burner in 2006. Given the closeness of the race, Darcy Burner has declared her intention to challenge Reichert in 2008. Al Gore and John Kerry won this suburban Seattle district in 2000 and 2004. A potentially stronger candidate is State Representative Ross Hunter, who has expressed some interest in the race. Local Democrats are determined to recruit Hunter, and the DCCC may assist them.

West Virginia

  • West Virginia's 1st congressional district— Controversy-plagued incumbent Alan Mollohan (D) represents a conservative-leaning district and received four fewer percentage points in 2006 than in 2004, which is considered unusual among Democrats in the 2006 congressional elections as Democrats chiefly made gains against Republican opponents or ran unopposed that year. The district covers the northern parts of West Virginia.

Wisconsin

  • Wisconsin's 5th congressional district— There has been speculation for the past few election cycles that Congressman Jim Sensenbrenner was nearing retirement after being in office since 1978. As a senior Republican, Sensenbrenner has held key committee chairmanships. While he told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that "this body is not dead yet",[23] local politicians have again been circulating rumors that Sensenbrenner will retire now that the Republicans are in the minority. Should Sensenbrenner decide not to run in 2008, Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, former Lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow, and State Sen. Ted Kanavas are potential Republican candidates. George W. Bush won 63% here.
  • Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Democrat Steve Kagen won by a 51% to 49% margin his first term in this Republican-leaning district that went to George W. Bush in 2004. Kagen will likely face a challenge from Republicans, who had held this seat since 1999. He recently garnered bad press when he bragged about speaking rudely to the President and First Lady at a White House function and then retracted this claim. He was the subject of controversy when the FDA investigated his clinic for selling allergy vaccines without a valid license, although his clinic stopped the practice. Possible Republican candidates include Kagen's predecessor, Mark Green, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006; John Gard, his 2006 opponent; state Assemblyman Steve Wieckert; former Green Bay Mayor Paul Jadin, one of two former Wisconsin state Treasurers, Jack Voight of Appleton or Cathy Zeuske of Peshtigo (who is Gard's wife); and Terri McCormick, a former assemblywoman who was defeated by Gard in the 2006 Republican primary.

Wyoming

  • Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Six-term Republican Barbara Cubin edged her Democratic opponent, Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner, by a margin of 1,012 votes in 2006. She sought reelection in a district – coterminous with the state of Wyoming – that gave George W. Bush an overwhelming margin of 69% in 2004 but whose governor, Democrat Dave Freudenthal, was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. Cubin has been known as a lightning rod for controversy over a number of incidents that ranged from receiving money from ARMPAC, to distributing penis-shaped cookies to male colleagues while in the Wyoming legislature, to even an incident after a televised debate in which she remarked that if the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, who has multiple sclerosis and must use a wheelchair, "weren’t sitting in that chair," she would have slapped him in the face. Cubin could face a strong primary challenge in 2008 as a result of her relative electoral weakness. In the general election, she could also face a strong challenge. Gary Trauner has said that he may run again in 2008. It is also possible that Cubin won't seek reelection.

See also

References

  1. ^ Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
  2. ^ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)
  3. ^ Babington, Charles (2007-05-30). "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases". Yahoo News. Associated Press. Retrieved 2007-05-30.
  4. ^ Heisel, William (December 12, 2006). "Ex-aides allege abuse of power". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
  5. ^ Williams, Ron (2007-02-18). "Democrats are targeting Castle's seat". The News Journal. Retrieved 2007-02-19.
  6. ^ Gamache, Shawna (2007-04-05). "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future". The Idaho Statesman. Retrieved 2007-04-11. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
  7. ^ Sam Youngman (2007-05-15). "TheHll.com". The Hill. Retrieved 2007-05-15.
  8. ^ "Green Party member will challenge Kirk". Lake County News-Sun. Copley Newspapers. 2007-05-17. Retrieved 2007-05-29. {{cite news}}: Text "NEWS-SUN STAFF REPORT" ignored (help)
  9. ^ http://www.suburbanchicagonews.com/beaconnews/news/409912,2_1_AU01_LAUZEN_S1.article
  10. ^ Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-21). "John Laesch Running In Congressional 14th-Announcing At Fire Dog Lake Saturday". Wurfwhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-05-22.
  11. ^ Salles, Andre (2007-05-15). "Rep. Chapa LaVia takes first step to run for Congress". The Courier News. Sun-Times. Retrieved 2007-05-22.
  12. ^ Krol, Eric (2007-05-31). "Physicist in running to replace Hastert". Daily Herald. Sun-Times. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
  13. ^ Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-09). "Democrat Joe Serra Planning to Run in 14th Congressional". WurfWhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
  14. ^ Sweeny, Chuck (2007-06-03). "Manzullo rival fears the demise of manufacturing". Rockford Register Star. GateHouse Media Inc. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
  15. ^ Associated Press (2007-02-20). "Ex-Coroner To Challenge Burton In GOP Primary". The Indy Channel.com (WRTV). Retrieved 2007-02-22.
  16. ^ Cooney, Jessica Benton (2007-03-14). "Rep. Meehan's Departure Now Certain, as College Approves New Post". Yahoo! News. CQPolitics.com. Retrieved 2007-04-11.
  17. ^ "Knollenberg shifts role after nearly losing seat". Detroit Free Press. December 25, 2006.
  18. ^ Rehman, Marc (January 30, 2007). "Michigan GOP Rep. Knollenberg Draws Democrats' Scrutiny for 2008". The New York Times. Retrieved 2007-03-25.
  19. ^ Price, Deb (January 31, 2007). "Dems slap bulls-eye on 2 GOP U.S. Reps". The Detroit News. Retrieved 2007-03-25.
  20. ^ Wrobleski, Tom (2007-04-04). "Councilman weighs run against Fossella". Staten Island Advance. Retrieved 2007-04-11.
  21. ^ Pierce, Frederic (2007-04-06). "Maffei again plans run for Walsh's seat". The Post-Standard. Retrieved 2007-04-12.
  22. ^ State Sen. Unger running for U.S. Congress The Register Herald May 21, 2007. Retrieved June 2, 2007
  23. ^ Schultze, Steve (April 7, 2006). "Walker responds to congressional buzz" (Reprint). Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. FindArticles. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
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