2008 United States Senate elections
Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4 2008, with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Thirty-three seats are regular elections; the winners will serve six-year terms from January 3 2009 until January 3 2015 as members of Senate Class II. There is also one special election for a seat from Wyoming and another for a seat from Mississippi; the winners will serve the remainder of the term that expires on January 3 2013 as members of Senate Class I.
The 2008 presidential election, gubernatorial elections, and House of Representatives elections will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.
The current composition of the Senate, going into the 2008 election, consists of 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who both caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 23 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.[1].
There may be changes to the list of incumbents below if senators die or resign. The date of a death or resignation determines if there will be a special election in 2008, and the rules vary from state to state.
Predictions
Democrats possess a field advantage in 2008, needing to defend only 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 23. In addition, six Republicans and no Democrats have announced that they are retiring. The open seat gap between the parties is the biggest in 50 years. [2]
Political pundits often use statewide results of recent presidential elections for comparison with subsequent Senate elections. Six of the 12 Democrats are from states won by George W. Bush in the 2004 election (Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia) while four of the 23 Republicans are from states won by John Kerry (Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon).
Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" -- the race is not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" -- the race is currently not competitive, but may become competitive if new political factors intervene.
"Leans" -- the race is competitive, but one candidate has a clear advantage.
"Tossup" -- neither candidate has a clear advantage.
The ratings below are current as of November 212007.
Races where one party is considered "Safe" by all sources are not included in the table. Currently these include:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC:
Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and West Virginia
SAFE REPUBLICAN:
Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi Class II, Wyoming Class I, and Wyoming Class II
Also not included in the table are the 39 Democratic and 26 Republican seats not up for election this year.
| Source | Safe Democratic | Democrat Favored | Leans Democratic | Tossup | Leans Republican | Republican Favored | Safe Republican |
| Cook Political Report (updates) |
Arkansas Iowa Montana New Jersey |
South Dakota Virginia |
Louisiana | Colorado New Hampshire New Mexico |
Maine Minnesota |
Alaska Nebraska Oregon |
Alabama Georgia Kentucky North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas |
| CQ Politics (updates) |
Arkansas Iowa Montana New Jersey South Dakota Virginia |
Louisiana | Colorado Minnesota New Hampshire New Mexico |
Maine Oregon |
Alabama Alaska Georgia Kentucky Mississippi Class I Nebraska North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas |
||
| Rothenberg Political Report (updates) |
Arkansas Iowa Montana New Jersey South Dakota |
(none) | Virginia | Colorado Louisiana New Hampshire New Mexico |
Maine Minnesota Oregon |
Alaska Kentucky Nebraska North Carolina |
Alabama Georgia Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee Texas |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball (updates) |
Arkansas Iowa Montana |
New Jersey South Dakota |
Colorado New Hampshire Louisiana Virginia |
Nebraska New Mexico |
Maine Minnesota Oregon |
Alaska Kentucky Texas |
Alabama Georgia North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee |
| Intrade1 (updates) |
Arkansas Iowa Montana |
New Jersey South Dakota Virginia |
Colorado | Louisiana New Hampshire |
Maine New Mexico |
Alaska Kentucky Minnesota Nebraska Oregon Texas |
Alabama Georgia North Carolina Oklahoma South Carolina Tennessee |
Blue=Seats held by Democrats prior to 2008 elections
Red=Seats held by Republicans prior to 2008 elections
1=Intrade does not have named categories, but instead gives percentage chances of a given outcome, based on what the market will bear. "Safe" races are those were one candidate is given a 90% or more chance to win, "favored" are those where a candidate is given a 67% or more chance to win, "leans" are those where one candidate is favored by at least 55%, and "tossup" are those where neither candidate has 55%.
Races
Retirements
Six senators — Wayne Allard (R-CO), John Warner (R-VA), Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Larry Craig (R-ID), Pete Domenici (R-NM), and Trent Lott (R-MS) — have announced their retirements.
If the bid of Joe Biden (D-DE) for the Presidential nomination is unsuccessful, he is likely to run for re-election rather than retire.
Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado
In Colorado, incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard limited himself to two terms. On January 15, 2007, he formally announced he would not seek re-election.[1] Allard has a very low approval rating, suggesting this race could have been close.
Former U.S. Representative Bob Schaffer has announced his candidacy.[2] On March 21, 2007 former Congressman Scott McInnis dropped out of the race. The strongest, best-known Republican in consideration is widely held to be State Attorney General John Suthers, a former El Paso County District Attorney.
The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be U.S. Representative Mark Udall, (CO-2) who has announced that he will seek the seat and is unlikely to draw significant primary opposition.[3]
The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver.
Larry Craig (R) of Idaho
On September 1 2007, Senator Larry Craig announced his intent to resign from the Senate effective September 30 [4]. The announcement followed by just six days the disclosure that he had pleaded guilty on August 1 to a reduced misdemeanor charge arising out of his arrest on June 11 at the Minneapolis airport for soliciting sex with a man in the restroom. Craig found almost no support among Republicans in his home state or Washington.
On October 4, Senator Craig announced he will not seek reelection, but would remain in office until the end of his term. [5]
Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch is the leading Republican candidate.[6] On the Democratic side, former congressman Larry LaRocco is the leading candidate.[7]
The last Democratic Senator from Idaho was Frank Church, who was defeated in the Republican landslide of 1980 after serving four terms.
Trent Lott (R) of Mississippi
Trent Lott announced on November 26, that he will resign his senate seat by the end of the year.[3]. Mississippi governor Haley Barbour (R-MS) will appoint an interim senator who will serve until a special election is held. Under Mississippi election law, a special Senate election would be held within 90 days if Lott formally resigns before the end of 2007. If, however, he waits until 2008, then the special election would be held on November 4, 2008 -- concurrent with 2008 Presidential and Congressional Elections. Many expect Lott to retire before 2008 so he can take up a lucrative lobbying job on K Street before a new federal lobbying law comes into effect with the New Year. Governor Barbour and the GOP establishment do not want a special election to be held before November 2008 though because it would increase the odds of a Democrat taking the seat.
Possible Republican replacements include Representatives Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering. Possible Democratic candidates for the seat include former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Attorney General Mike Moore and current Representative Gene Taylor.
Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska
In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel chose to retire and will not seek the 2008 Presidential nomination. This makes what was a safe Republican seat more competitive.[4]
Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning had already declared his intent to run whether Hagel vacates the seat or not. Bruning dropped out of the race on November 20, 2007. This now makes former Governor Mike Johanns, who recently resigned as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture the likely nominee for the Republican Party.
On the Democratic side, former U.S Senator Bob Kerrey, and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey were considered likely candidates, but both have ruled out a run. Democrats are now courting 2006 Congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for a possible run.
Pete Domenici (R) of New Mexico
While Senator Pete Domenici had declared that he would seek reelection in New Mexico, he changed his mind and announced on October 4 he was retiring at the end of his term due to a degenerative brain disorder. [8] Domenici normally would have been expected to win re-election easily, having won his current term with the support of two out of three New Mexico voters; however, Domenici is to be investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee for his role in firing U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. Domenici's role in the developing scandal had reduced the probability he would have been re-elected, and a SurveyUSA poll showed his approval ratings at 41%, with 54% disapproving.[9] The potential scandal may have also contributed to his decision to leave the Senate.
Democratic Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez has announced that he will run for the open seat [10]. Chavez was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1998. Another potential candidate is current New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who may seek the Senate seat if he does not receive the nomination of the Democratic Party in the 2008 Presidential Election, or drops out of the race before then (he currently polls between 3.5-5% in national polls and is in 4th place). However, a Richardson spokesman has stated that if Richardson is not nominated for president he would continue to serve as governor. [11]
Congressman Tom Udall had initially ruled out a run, but announced on November 12 that he is running. [12].
One minor Democratic candidate has also expressed intent to run. Leland Lehrman, 37, edits an alternative bi-weekly newspaper in northern New Mexico.[13]
Among Republicans U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who is considered by many to be Domenici's protégé, has announced her candidacy. [14] She has won reelection in a highly marginal district against well-financed challenges. However, she is also snared in the same U.S. Attorney controversy as Domenici, although how much damage it will cause is unclear. U.S. Representative Steve Pearce, who represents the more conservative southern part of the state, has also announced [15].
John Warner (R) of Virginia
John Warner announced on August 31, 2007 that he would not seek reelection for another term. [16] Former Governor Jim Gilmore, who recently dropped out of the 2008 presidential election, plans to run for the seat [5]. After the state Republican Party chose to choose the 2008 U.S. Senate nominee through a convention rather than a primary, Congressman Tom Davis, who was interested in running, implied that he was backing away from running [6].
Popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner has entered the race.[17] Early polling shows him being a strong favorite to win the seat.[18] Partly as a result, state Representative Chris Saxman has been approached about running and is thinking of being a candidate [7].
Possible retirements
Ted Stevens (R) of Alaska
While Senator Ted Stevens has announced he will run for re-election for a sixth term, it is possible he will reconsider. He will be 85 years old in 2008, but, more importantly, the FBI and IRS are investigating Stevens. An oil company executive that bribed many Alaskan politicians paid for construction work on Stevens personal residence. It has also been revealed that the FBI had recorded Stevens' phone calls with the Alaskan contractor who is cooperating with them.[19]
The FBI is investigating the remodeling of Stevens home by Veco Corp. which is part of a broader corruption investigation involving Stevens' son, former Alaska Senate President Ben Stevens.[20] Two former Veco executives have plead guilty to paying the younger Stevens $242,000 in bribes.[21] On September 14, 2007, former Veco CEO Bill Allen testified at the trial of former Alaska House Speaker Pete Kott that Veco paid people working to expand (double) the size of Stevens' home[22]
Republicans have several choices in this conservative state such as: former Lieutenant Governor Loren Leman, former state Senator John Binkley, who ran for Governor in 2006; state Senate Minority Leader Gene Therriault; Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell; State Senator Lesil McGuire; State Representative Tom Anderson; and State House Speaker John Harris.
On July 30, 2007, the IRS and the FBI raided Stevens' home in Alaska. According to The Nation, the major Democratic contender is Tony Knowles, who served as Governor of Alaska from 1994 to 2002. Knowles narrowly lost bids for the Senate in 2004 and for another term as governor in 2006. [23] While he is still fairly popular and keeps a high statewide profile, his viability may have been damaged by two consecutive electoral defeats. Among other Democrats mentioned, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of popular former Democratic Congressman Nick Begich, heads the list. But it also includes Democratic state Representative Eric Croft, a reformer who garnered attention when he sought the Governorship a few years back. State Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis as well as State Representative Scott Kawasaki are also on the list of Democratic prospects."[24]
On October 19, 2007, the AP reported that despite the allegations and FBI probe, several long-standing Republican Senators -- including Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Missouri Senator Kit Bond -- donated enough money to Stevens' re-election campaign to make it one of Stevens' most successful fund raising quarters ever. [25]
Joe Biden (D) of Delaware
Incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Biden has announced he is running for President.[26] Biden may run for both the Presidency and the Senate simultaneously, but may choose to retire from the Senate to focus exclusively on the Presidency.
Should Biden retire, the 2008 race would feature the first open Delaware seat since 1970, and potential Democratic candidates include State Treasurer Jack Markell or Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, Sen. Biden's son.
Democratic incumbent races
Mark Pryor of Arkansas
Senator Mark Pryor could be targeted in his first race as an incumbent. Pryor was the only Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican senator in the otherwise GOP-dominated 2002 elections. While George W. Bush won Arkansas in both 2000 and 2004, he won it by a significantly smaller margin than most of the other Southern states, and the home of the Clinton family has Democrats representing three of its four U.S. House districts, as well as Democratic senior Senator Blanche Lincoln.
Currently, the only Republican who has shown interest in challenging Pryor is former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks, who lost the GOP primary for lieutenant governor in 2006 and a race for the U.S. House in 1982. If former Governor Mike Huckabee were forced out of the Republican presidential race early, he could challenge Pryor.[citation needed]
Current Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter has angered a number of Democrats in the state because he has not denied rumors that he may challenge Pryor in a primary. Halter has not been known to have much influence, even though he defeated three seasoned state legislators to win the primary, and a significant primary challenge could damage Pryor.
Also in the race is Green Party candidate Rebekah Kennedy, who in 2006 ran for state attorney general, capturing 4.4% of the vote [8].
Dick Durbin of Illinois
Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin remains favored in Illinois. He seeks to be reelected in a state that has steadily become more Democratic since 1992. CQpolitics.com rates the contest as "safe Democrat."
Frequent candidate Anthony "Andy" Martin-Trigona, a journalist and activist lawyer, has declared his intent to run. Martin has been sanctioned in federal court for filing hundreds of lawsuits without merit. As a result of these findings, the Illinois Supreme Court denied him a law license.[27] On May 14, Steve Sauerberg, M.D. of La Grange, a political newcomer, declared his intent to seek the Republican nomination. Sauerberg is the candidate currently supported by the Illinois Republican Party. Professional truck driver and DePaul MBA Mike Psak [9] is also seeking the Republican nomination for this office. Psak has been campaigning since the summer of 2006, and he declared his campaign on Mar. 10, 2007. His nominating petition was signed by voters who live in 96 of Illinois' 102 counties. Norm Hill of Grayslake also filed nominating petitions to run as a Republican. There is an objection pending against his candidacy as of November 11, 2007. See Illinois State Board of Elections website.
Tom Harkin of Iowa
Senator Tom Harkin has announced he will seek re-election.[28]
Harkin received 54% of the vote in 2002 against former Republican Congressman Greg Ganske. In 2006, the Democrats gained two of Iowa's U.S. House seats and won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature as well as retaining the Iowa Governor's Mansion.
As of April 2007, veteran Iowa political reporter David Yepsen was reporting that Harkin, having raised over $2 million, was unlikely to face a big-name Republican challenge.[29] In a subsequent article, he wrote that it was possible that wealthy propane retailer Bruce Rastetter, formerly in the hog-feeding business, was a potential candidate for Republicans [10].
Steve Rathje, a businessman from Cedar Rapids, has entered the race. [citation needed]
Conservative Rep. Steve King (R-IA-5) has become increasingly vocal about the proposal to pass legislation that allows immigrants in the United States illegally a path to citizenship and has recently sparred with Harkin over the issue. This has led to some speculation that King has not ruled out running. [citation needed]
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
Senator Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount and was narrowly re-elected in 2002 in a runoff election. Landrieu must now endure the loss of many reliable Democratic voters since Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican senator since Reconstruction. Louisiana's electoral votes also went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004
On August 27, 2007, state Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced he was switching parties from Democrat to Republican. It is rumored that he may have done so to challenge Landrieu in 2008, as he had been personally recruited by Senator Vitter and Bush administration official Karl Rove. [30].
John Kerry of Massachusetts
Senator John Kerry will seek another Senate term in Massachusetts.[31] An August 2007 poll has Kerry's approval rating at 47%, with 45% disapproving. [11]
Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi, known for his public criticism of Kerry, had stated that he would run for the seat in 2008 but later changed his mind. According to a 2005 study by the Washington Post, only 37% of Massachusetts residents want Kerry to run again; 63% do not.[32] Another challenger to Kerry is Jeff Beatty, an ex-Army Delta Force officer who garnered only 30% of the vote in a challenge to Democratic Congressman William Delahunt in 2006.
Kerry is being challenged by defense attorney Edward O'Reilly for the Democratic nomination.
Massachusetts is a liberal state and there are few first string Republican candidates in the state. The two would probably be Jim Ogonowski, a retired Air Force Pilot who ran a close grassroots race against Representative Niki Tsongas and former governor Paul Cellucci.
Carl Levin of Michigan
Senator Carl Levin has announced he will seek a sixth term in Michigan.[33]
With the Democratic Party takeover of Capitol Hill in the 2006 midterm elections, Levin, as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. He is expected to easily win re-election. Members of Congress Candice Miller (R-MI-10) and Mike J. Rogers (R-MI-8) have declined to challenge him. Levin's opponent in 2002, Andrew Raczkowski, has expressed interest in running again.[34] Republican State Representative Jack Hoogendyk is also considering running.[12]
Max Baucus of Montana
Senator Max Baucus is a popular Democrat in Montana, representing a state that has long been fairly Republican but also is receptive to Democrats in state and local elections. President Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Montana also has a popular Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and a newly-elected Democratic junior senator, Jon Tester. Baucus is unlikely to face a significant challenge.
Rep Denny Rehberg was thought to be a potential candidate, which would have made the race a rematch of the 1996 contest, but on July 6, 2007 Rehberg announced that he would seek to remain in the House. [35] Michael Lange, the recently-ousted state House Majority Leader, announced on June 29, 2007 that he would challenge Baucus. However, former state Senator Bob Keenan has been approached by Republican leaders about a possible candidacy, due to their worries that Lange is not a viable candidate [13].
Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey
Senator Frank Lautenberg has indicated that he will seek reelection in 2008 at the age of 84, although other Democratic politicians have also shown interest in running in New Jersey, including Congressmen Rob Andrews (NJ-1) and Rush Holt (NJ-12). It is unclear if any of these Democrats will actually challenge Lautenberg. In November, 2006, he had the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% approving and 45% disapproving),[36], but his ratings have moved up considerably since then.[37]
Potential Republican candidates include Assemblyman Joseph Pennacchio [38] and real estate developer Anne Evans Estabrook, who likely would be supported by moderate and liberal elements within the state Republican Party.
Jack Reed of Rhode Island
In Rhode Island, Senator Jack Reed had an approval rating of 66% in November 2006.[39] National Journal has declared that "Reed is probably the safest incumbent of the [2008] cycle."[14]
Tim Johnson of South Dakota
In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson's seat could be a top GOP target in 2008, considering Johnson's narrow 524-vote victory in 2002 over then-Congressman and current U.S. Senator John Thune, as well as his recent health problems. Johnson underwent surgery in December 2006 for a Cerebral arteriovenous malformation and was discharged from the hospital on April 30, 2007. On October 19, Johnson formally announced that he is seeking re-election.[15] According to a November 2006 SurveyUSA poll, Johnson has an approval rating of 70%, with just 26% disapproving of his performance,[40] making him an early favorite despite the state's Republican leaning.
Republicans are attempting to persuade Governor Mike Rounds to run, and his approval ratings are similar to Johnson's. However, when the Republicans began polling potential challengers to Johnson, Rounds was not among them. State Representative Joel Dykstra (R) announced that he was running on July 5, 2007. Rounds recently indicated that he isn't interested in challenging Johnson, but would seriously consider running if Johnson were to retire [16].
Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
Senator Jay Rockefeller, great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, will seek a fifth term in West Virginia. Even though West Virginia is a historically Democratic state, in which the party had a 50-32% edge in party affiliation over the Republicans in the 2004 elections, the state party is more conservative than the national party, giving 30% of its votes to President George W. Bush in that election to allow him to win then and in 2000.[41]
Republican incumbent races
Jeff Sessions of Alabama
In Alabama, Senator Jeff Sessions is running for re-election. CQpolitics.com rates the race as "Republican Favored." On January 10, 2007, U.S. Representative Artur Davis (AL-7) announced that he will not run for the seat.[42] Despite going heavily for Bush in 2004, Alabama still has a strong Democratic presence; Democrats control majorities of both chambers in the state legislature. Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks appeared to be preparing for a run, but on June 12, 2007, Sparks announced that he will not seek the Senate seat, in order to avoid a primary battle with state Senator Vivian Davis Figures.[43] Figures has won elections in the Republican-leaning Mobile area.
One Independent has already announced he will run. Johnny Swanson announced in March 2006. [17].
Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
In 2002, Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss defeated Democratic incumbent Max Cleland, a decorated disabled Vietnam Veteran. Chambliss will seek reelection in 2008. As of late June 2007, Chambliss has an approval rating of 50%, with 39% disapproval rating.[18]
Democrat Vernon Jones, CEO of Dekalb County, has indicated an interest in running and is canvassing the state to determine voters' concerns. Jones is African-American and a conservative Democrat who voted for George W. Bush in 2004.[44] Veteran Atlanta investigative journalist Dale Cardwell declared his candidacy in June 2007. Rep. Jim Marshall (GA-8) is under pressure to not run, as Democrats are worried the party would then lose his seat.[45] There is some speculation that Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond (D-GA) or Roy Barnes (D-GA) jumping into the race to take on Chambliss, but nothing is definite. Speculation has it that former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) may look into running for the senate again if he doesn't decide to launch a independent bid for the White House in 2008. Recently Vietnam War Veteran & ex-Congressional Aide to Herman Talmadge (D-GA), Josh Lanier (D-GA) has announced that he will run for the senate in 2008. Finally, recent speculation has centered around Adjuntant General Of the Ga. National Guard & Vietnam War Veteran David Poythress a democrat who was the state's labor commissioner & secreatry of state who is retiring in November from the National Guard.
Pat Roberts of Kansas
Senator Pat Roberts has indicated that he will seek re-election. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but Pat Roberts only has an approval rating of 54%.[19] The Topeka Capital Journal reports that former Congressman Jim Slattery, who served in Congress for 12 years, is considering a run against Roberts. [20] Slattery was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1994 and lost by a wide margin. Former GOP House Majority Leader Joe Hoagland, who recently switched to the Democratic Party, may also run. [citation needed]
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
Democrats have made Senate Minority Leader, four-term Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky a target due to his leadership of Senate Republicans and his ties to President Bush, as well as his mediocre approval rating in the state, which is below 50%.[46] Because of the 2007 Governor's race, active campaigning isn't likely to begin for McConnell's seat until the winter, though potential candidates have been reported in the press, including Charlie Owen, state Treasurer Jonathan Miller, Attorney General Greg Stumbo and State Auditor Crit Luallen. Former Attorney General and Congressman Ben Chandler (KY-6) was the top pick among national Democrats as he has won statewide recognition and was reelected in his Republican leaning district, but he has stated he will pass on the race. Though McConnell's approval ratings aren't intimidating, he has seen a lot of fundraising success, and is considered a political institution in the state, holding a lot of influence over state politics.
Attorney General Greg Stumbo has formed an exploratory committee to challenge McConnell.
Andrew Horne, a Louisville attorney, and Iraq War Veteran may be considering running.[21]
Susan Collins of Maine
In Maine, Senator Susan Collins has informed the Lewiston Sun Journal that she intends to seek another term.[47] Collins remains very popular, with a 73% job approval rating in November 2006, and is likely to start as a strong favorite.[48] Also in Collins' favor is the landslide re-election of Maine's senior senator, Republican Olympia Snowe, who had the largest margin of victory of any GOP Senate candidate (besides the largely unopposed Indiana Republican Dick Lugar) in the 2006 election cycle. Collins was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2002 over state senator Chellie Pingree. Sen. Joe Lieberman, citing his status as an independent, endorsed Sen. Collins in her 2008 re-election bid.
On May 8, 2007, Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) announced his candidacy on his website. He had already expressed interest in running and had been building the apparatus necessary to wage a senate campaign.[49] On the same day a poll was released by Critical Insights, an independent polling firm in Portland, ME, which showed Senator Collins as the clear early favorite, with Collins leading Allen 57 to 30 percent statewide, and another poll shows Collins with a lead of 57% to 32%.
Possible Independent to enter the race is Former Governor Angus King who previously defeated Collins in her run for the governorship.[citation needed]
Norm Coleman of Minnesota
Senator Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against former VP Walter Mondale after incumbent Paul Wellstone (DFL), died in an October plane crash. Many of Minnesota's more experienced politico's saw Coleman's electoral success as emanating directly from the highly partisan Wellstone memorial and not, as many say, a rightward drift in Minnesota politics. In 2006, popular Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar defeated retiring Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy in a Senate race, and the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party took large majorities in the State House, gaining 19 seats, and made further gains in the state senate. Six term Republican Rep. Gil Gutknecht was also defeated that year.
Comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken confirmed on the final broadcast of his radio show Air America, February 14, 2007, that he will run for the Senate seat in 2008.[50] He had publicly speculated about running for some time and in 2005, he established the Midwest Values PAC to lay the groundwork for that campaign. Attorneys Mike Ciresi and Jim Cohen have also entered the race. [22] [23]
The 2008 Republican National Convention is being held in the capital city of St. Paul, where Coleman was once Mayor (elected in 1993 as a moderate-to-conservative DFLer and re-elected in 1997 as a Republican).
An August 2007 poll has his approval rating at 47%, with 44% disapproving.[24]
On June 12, 2007, Joe Repya announced that he is considering challenging Coleman in the Republican primary. The previous week Repya ran for election of the chair of the Minnesota GOP. He lost that election. Repya, a retired lieutenant colonel, is a pro-Iraq War activist and formerly advised Coleman on military and veterans issues in his 2002 campaign.[51] Michael Cavlan the 2006 Green Party candidate for the United States Senate is running again in 2008. [citation needed]
Possible Independence Party candidate to enter the race is Former Governor Jesse Ventura who previously defeated Coleman in his run for the governorship.[citation needed]
Early polling showed Coleman with a large lead over prospective Democratic opponents; however, the polls have considerably narrowed since then.[52]
Thad Cochran of Mississippi
Incumbent Senator Thad Cochran has announced that he will seek re-election for a sixth term.[25] Cochran has not faced serious opposition since he was reelected in 1984.
John Sununu of New Hampshire
Senator John Sununu represents the swing state of New Hampshire. The state traditionally leaned Republican, but John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts narrowly won in the 2004 Presidential election. New Hampshire also saw major Democratic gains in the 2006 elections, when Democrats took both of the previously Republican-held House seats, the gubernatorial race with a record vote share of 74%, and majorities in the State House and Senate, giving them concurrent control of both bodies for the first time since 1874. However, New Hampshire has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since 1975.
A spokesman for popular Democratic Governor John Lynch said Lynch would not run for Sununu's seat in 2008.[53] Portsmouth' Mayor Steve Marchand (D) had announced his candidacy but withdrew from the race due to Shaheen's entry.[54] Katrina Swett (D), wife of former Democratic congressman Richard Swett, has also announced[55] but since then she withdrew from the race and endorsed Shaheen. Jay Buckey MD, a medical school director, Air Force Reserve flight surgeon, and former astronaut, is also running, and his non-political background could be appealing.[56] However, Sununu's 2002 opponent, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, has decided to run and is generally held to be a far more formidable challenger.[26] A Rasmussen Reports poll shows Shaheen defeating Sununu by 48% to 43%.[57] A recent poll by the American Research Group has similar findings, with Shaheen holding a 54% to 38% lead [27].
Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina
In North Carolina, there had been rumors that Senator Elizabeth Dole would retire from the Senate and run for governor, but she said in 2006 that she intends to run for re-election.[58] She is believed to be the favorite unless she faces Democratic Governor Mike Easley, who will not be running for re-election because of term limits. A Dole-Easley race would be highly competitive, but Easley has indicated that he is not interested in serving in any legislature when the DSCC attempted to recruit him for the race. A January 2007 poll showed Easley defeating Dole, 44% to 41%.[59]
Jim Neal, a financial adviser and a former national finance committee member for Wes Clark for President and the Kerry-Edwards campaigns, has entered the race, as have John Ross Hendrix and state Senator Kay R. Hagan.[60] There are other Democrats whose names have been mentioned, such as first lady Mary Easley, state Representative/Army Major Grier Martin, retired General Henry Hugh Shelton, state Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and state Attorney General Roy A. Cooper. A Public Policy Polling poll showed Dole leading U.S. Representative Brad Miller 44% to 33%, with 22% undecided, but Miller announced June 25 that he would not run against her. [61]
Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
In Oklahoma, Senator Jim Inhofe had been quiet about his plans for 2008. A September 2007 poll put Inhofe's approval rating at 47%, with 41% disapproving of his performance.[62] However, Inhofe recently announced he will seek a third term. State Senator Andrew Rice and state Senator Kenneth Corn have expressed interest in challenging Inhofe. Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor is also a possible candidate.
Andrew Rice announced he will run against Inhofe, and will make a formal announcement after Labor Day.[63] The Oklahoma Republican Party has launched a web site attacking rice that links Rice with the Italian Communist Party, ACLU, Sierra Club, MoveOn.org and Daily Kos.[64]
Gordon Smith of Oregon
Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon is running for a third term, and may be vulnerable.
Oregon House of Representatives Speaker Jeff Merkley[65] and long time Democratic activist Steve Novick are the two announced candidates for the Democratic nomination.[citation needed]
Smith could also draw opposition from the right. He has been singled out by the Club for Growth for not doing enough to cut taxes[66]; anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore has not ruled out challenging Smith in the Republican primary.[citation needed]
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham, as a reasonably popular Republican incumbent in strongly conservative South Carolina, is unlikely to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. Graham's support for a compromise immigration bill, however, has drawn an angry response from many South Carolina conservatives, which could help fuel a conservative primary challenge. Summerville businessman and "grassroots right wing conservative" John J. Cina has already launched a challenge to Graham for the Republican nomination.[67] Recently there has been talk that former state House Speaker David Wilkins, currently Ambassador to Canada, may run [28].
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Former Governor and U.S. Secretary of Education Lamar Alexander was elected in 2002 to succeed retiring Senator Fred Thompson. He has announced he will seek a second term in 2008.[68]
Businessman Mike McWherter, son of Alexander's gubernatorial successor Ned McWherter, has met with Tennessee Democratic Party chair Gray Sasser and members of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to discuss a possible senate candidacy.[69]
Campaign finance reform activist and perennial candidate John Jay Hooker will likely run for the seat, either in the Democratic Primary or as an independent in the general election. He has not, however, been considered a serious candidate since he lost the 1976 senatorial primary to Jim Sasser. His many recent statewide campaigns have been seen merely as excuses for him to file lawsuits against the opposing candidates for supposedly-unethical campaign fundraising practices and to promote his own campaign finance reform efforts.[70]
In January, 2007, former Democratic Congressman (and 2006 U.S. Senate candidate) Harold Ford declined to run for this seat.[71]
John Cornyn of Texas
Senator John Cornyn has a 42% job approval rating as of June 2007. Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 1994. The only announced Democratic candidate is state representative and Afghanistan War Veteran Rick Noriega. Plaintiff's attorney Mikal Watts had explored a bid for the Democratic nomination but announced on October 23, 2007 his decision not to run.[72]
Christian activist Larry Kilgore of Mansfield, Texas, is a Republican challenger for the March 2008 primary election.
John Barrasso of Wyoming
John Barrasso was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) on June 22 2007 to fill the senate seat of Craig L. Thomas, who died on June 4.[73] Wyoming law requires that the interim senator be affiliated with the same political party as the departed senator. As Thomas was a Republican, the state's Republican central committee was to provide three names to Governor Freudenthal within two weeks, and the governor then had five days to appoint a person from that list to act as interim Senator. The number of applicants for the vacant senate seat was 31.[74] The state Republican central committee met to choose the three nominees on Tuesday, June 19; they selected Assistant U.S. Attorney General Tom Sansonetti, state senator Barrasso and former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis.[75] Senator Barrasso will serve until a special election which will be held, concurrent with the regular 2008 election, to fill the remainder of Thomas' term, which ends in January 2013.[76] Barrasso is expected to run in the Republican primary prior to that election. Of the two finalists who were not chosen, Sansonetti has vowed not to challenge Barrasso while Lummis hasn't ruled out running.[77] Former U.S. attorney Matt Mead, who resigned (as required by the Hatch Act of 1939) to unsuccessfully apply for interim senator, chose not to reapply for his old U.S. attorney position so he may challenge Barrasso in the Republican primary.[78]
Governor Dave Freudenthal is a possible Democratic candidate.
Michael Enzi of Wyoming
Senator Mike Enzi is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition for a third term in strongly Republican Wyoming.
Summary table
| State | Incumbent | Status | Announced opposing candidates | Previous Election Results[79] |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Jeff Sessions (R) | Running for Re-election | Vivian Davis Figures (D) Johnny Swanson (D) |
Jeff Sessions (R) 59%; Susan Parker (D) 40%; Other 1% |
| Alaska | Ted Stevens (R) | Running for Re-election | Nels Anderson (D) Rocky Caldero (D) Ted Gianoutsos (Veterans) |
Ted Stevens (R) 78% ; Frank Vondersaar (D) 11%; Jim Sykes (G) 8%; Other 3% |
| Arkansas | Mark Pryor (D) | Running for Re-election | Rebekah Kennedy (G) | Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%; Mark Pryor (D) 54% |
| Colorado | Wayne Allard (R) | Retiring | Bob Schaffer (R) Vincent Martinez (R) Wayne Wolf (R) Mark Udall (D) |
Wayne Allard (R) 51%; Tom Strickland (D) 46%; Other 3% |
| Delaware | Joe Biden (D) | Running for President | Joe Biden (D) 58%; Raymond Clatworthy (R) 41%; Other 1% | |
| Georgia | Saxby Chambliss (R) | Running for Re-election | Dale Cardwell (D) Vernon Jones (D) Rand Knight (D) Josh Lanier (D) Jon Banks (L) Allen Buckley (L) |
Max Cleland (D) 46%; Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%; Other 1% |
| Idaho | Larry Craig (R) | Retiring | Rex Rammell (R) Jim Risch (R) Larry LaRocco (D) Marvin Richardson (I) |
Larry Craig (R) 65%; Alan Blinken (D) 33%; Other 2% |
| Illinois | Dick Durbin (D) | Running for Re-election | Norm Hill (R) Andy Martin (R) Mike Psak (R) Steve Sauerberg (R) Arno Sponeman (G) Alton Franklin (I) |
Dick Durbin (D) 60%; Jim Durkin (R) 38%; Other 2% |
| Iowa | Tom Harkin (D) | Running for Re-election | Bob McDowell (R) Steve Rathje (R) |
Tom Harkin (D) 54%; Greg Ganske (R) 44%; Other 2% |
| Kansas | Pat Roberts (R) | Running for Re-election | Pat Roberts (R) 83%; Steven Rosile (L) 9%; George Cook (Reform) 8% | |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell (R) | Running for Re-election | Michael Cassaro (D) Greg Stumbo (D) |
Mitch McConnell (R) 65%; Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35% |
| Louisiana | Mary Landrieu (D) | Running for Re-election | Mary Landrieu (D) 52%; Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | Running for Re-election | Tom Allen (D) | Susan Collins (R) 58%; Chellie Pingree (D) 42% |
| Massachusetts | John Kerry (D) | Running for Re-election | Ed O'Reilly (D)
Jeff Beatty (R) Kevin Scott (R) |
John Kerry (D) 80%; Michael Cloud (L) 18%; Other 2% |
| Michigan | Carl Levin (D) | Running for Re-election | Carl Levin (D) 60%; Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38%; Other 2% | |
| Minnesota | Norm Coleman (R) | Running for Re-election | Mike Ciresi (DFL) Jim Cohen (DFL) Al Franken (DFL) Dick Franson (DFL) Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (DFL) James Wellstone (MIP) |
Walter Mondale (D) 47%; Norm Coleman (R) 50%; Other 3% |
| Mississippi | Thad Cochran (R) | Running for Re-election | Thad Cochran (R) 85%; Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 15% | |
| Mississippi (Special) | Trent Lott (R) (Gov. Haley Barbour will appoint a replacement who will be the incumbent at the time of the election) | Re-elected in 2006, has decided to retire | Trent Lott (R) 64%; Erik Fleming (D) 35% | |
| Montana | Max Baucus (D) | Running for Re-election | Mike Lange (R) | Max Baucus (D) 63%; Mike Taylor (R) 32%; Other 5% |
| Nebraska | Chuck Hagel (R) | Retiring | Mike Johanns (R) Pat Flynn (R) |
Chuck Hagel (R) 83%; Charlie Matulka (D) 15%; Other 2% |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | Running for Re-election | Jeanne Shaheen (D) Jay Buckey (D) Bea Francoeur (L) |
John Sununu (R) 51%; Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46%; Other 3% |
| New Jersey | Frank Lautenberg (D) | Running for Re-election | Anne Evans Estabrook (R) Joseph Pennacchio (R) Anthony Fisher (I) |
Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%; Doug Forrester (R) 44%; Other 2% |
| New Mexico | Pete Domenici (R) | Retiring | Heather Wilson (R) Steve Pearce (R) Tom Udall (D) Martin Chavez (D) Leland Lehrman (D) |
Pete Domenici (R) 65%; Gloria Tristani (D) 35% |
| North Carolina | Elizabeth Dole (R) | Running for Re-election | Jim Neal (D) John Ross Hendrix (D) Kay R. Hagan (D) |
Elizabeth Dole (R) 54%; Erskine Bowles (D) 45%; Other 1% |
| Oklahoma | Jim Inhofe (R) | Running for Re-election | Andrew Rice (D) | Jim Inhofe (R) 57%; David Walters (D) 36%; James Germalic (I) 6%; Other 1% |
| Oregon | Gordon Smith (R) | Running for Re-election | Jeff Merkley (D) Pavel Goberman (D) Steve Novick (D) John Frohnmayer (I) |
Gordon Smith (R) 56%; Bill Bradbury (D) 40%; Other 4% |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) | Running for Re-election | Jack Reed (D) 78%; Robert Tingle (R) 22% | |
| South Carolina | Lindsey Graham (R) | Running for Re-election | Tim Carnes (R) John Cina (R) |
Lindsey Graham (R) 54%; Alex Sanders (D) 44%; Other 2% |
| South Dakota | Tim Johnson (D) | Running for Re-election | Joel Dykstra (R) Sam Kephart (R) |
Tim Johnson (D) 50%; John Thune (R) 49%; Other 1% |
| Tennessee | Lamar Alexander (R) | Running for Re-election | David Gatchell (I) Emory "Bo" Heyward (I) |
Lamar Alexander (R) 54%; Bob Clement (D) 44%; Other 2% |
| Texas | John Cornyn (R) | Running for Re-election | Larry Kilgore (R)
Rick Noriega (D) |
John Cornyn (R) 55%; Ron Kirk (D) 43%; Other 2% |
| Virginia | John Warner (R) | Retiring | Mark Warner (D)
Jim Gilmore (R) |
John Warner (R) 83%; Nancy Spannaus (I) 10%; Jacob G. Hornberger (I) 7% |
| West Virginia | Jay Rockefeller (D) | Running for Re-election | Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%; Jay Wolfe (R) 37% | |
| Wyoming | Mike Enzi (R) | Running for Re-election | Mike Enzi (R) 73%; Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) 27% | |
| Wyoming (Special) | John Barrasso (R) | Running for election | Craig L. Thomas (R) 70%; Dale Groutage (D) 30% | |
| State | Incumbent | Status | Announced opposing candidates | Previous Election Results |
See also
- United States House elections, 2008
- United States presidential election, 2008
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2008
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- ^ Rocky Mountain News. 2007-01-17 http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/elections/article/0,2808,DRMN_24736_5285524,00.html. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
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- ^ SurveyUSA Approval Ratings for New Mexico Senators
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- ^ http://www.alamogordonews.com/news/ci_7194286
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{{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter:|coauthors=(help) - ^ John Chase and Rick Pearson (2006-02-10). "Perennial candidate back for another race". Chicago Tribune Inc. Retrieved 2007-05-16.
- ^ Norman, Jane (2007-01-18). "Harkin points toward re-election bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2007-02-06.
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- ^ http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/08/treasurer_bolts_to_gop.html
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{{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter:|coauthors=(help) - ^ "Levin to seek another Senate term in '08". Associated Press, MSNBC.com. December 4, 2006. Retrieved 2006-02-06.
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{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|month=ignored (help) - ^ "Results of Quinnipiac University Poll". Quinnipiac University. 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-02.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|month=ignored (help) - ^ Morris Assembly member may seek Lautenberg's seat North Jersey Media Group. August 24, 2007. Retrieved September 14, 2007
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{{cite news}}: Text "Birmingham News staff" ignored (help) - ^ Tagami, Ty (2007-02-13). "DeKalb CEO fund-raiser may test Senate campaign waters". The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Retrieved 2007-02-13.
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- ^ Table of Opinion Polls for Minnesota Senate Race, 2008
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- ^ Jay Buckey for US Senate Campaign Biography
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Christensen, Rob (2006-06-12). "Mary Easley has active public life, but she's no Hillary Clinton". The News & Observer. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
- ^ Dan Kane (2007-01-25). "Poll puts Easley over Dole". The News & Observer. Retrieved 2007-02-05.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|coauthors=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/hagan_to_run
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- ^ Blake, Aaron (July 26, 2007). "Oregon House Speaker Merkley set to challenge Sen. Smith in 2008". TheHill.com. Retrieved 2007-07-26.
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- ^ Statement from Mikal Watts October 23, 2007
- ^ "Governor picks Barrasso". Casper Star-Tribune. 2007-06-22. Retrieved 2007-06-22.
- ^ "The list of candidates for Wyoming's Senate vacancy". Casper Star-Tribune. 2007-06-15. Retrieved 2007-06-15.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|Author=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ "State GOP nominates Sansonetti, Barrasso, Lummis for Senate seat". Casper Star-Tribune. 2007-06-19. Retrieved 2007-06-19.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|Author=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ Martin Kady II (2007-06-05). "Senate Mourns Death of Wyoming Republican Craig Thomas". CQ Politics. Retrieved 2007-06-05.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Jared Miller and Barbara Nordby (2007-06-23). "Barrasso ready to pick up where Thomas left off". Casper Star-Tribune. Retrieved 2007-06-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Joan Barron (2007-06-27). "Mead doesn't try for old job". Casper Star-Tribune. Retrieved 2006-06-27.
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