2008 United States Senate elections
Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 4 2008, with 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Thirty-three seats are regular elections; the winners will be eligible to serve six-year terms from January 3 2009 until January 3 2015 as members of Senate Class II. There are also two special elections: one in Wyoming and another in Mississippi; the winners will serve the remainder of terms that expire on January 32013, as members of Senate Class I.
The 2008 presidential election, gubernatorial elections, and House of Representatives elections will occur on the same date, as well as many state and local elections.
The current composition of the Senate, going into the 2008 election, consists of 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and two independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, who both caucus with Democrats). Of the seats up for election in 2008, 23 are held by Republicans and 12 by Democrats.
There may be changes to the list of incumbents below if senators die or resign. The date of a death or resignation determines if there will be a special election in 2008, and the rules vary from state to state.
There is a possibility that John McCain of Arizona, the probable Republican nominee for President, will resign his seat (as Bob Dole of Kansas did in 1996) in order to focus in the national race. If this were to occur, Democratic Arizona governor Janet Napolitano would appoint his successor (per state law section 16-222[1] she must appoint a Republican, But that's disputed), and a special election to fill the remainder of McCain's term would be triggered.
Predictions
Democrats possess a field advantage in 2008, needing to defend only 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 23. In addition, five Republicans and no Democrats have announced that they are retiring. The open seat gap between the parties is the biggest in 50 years.[2][3]
Political pundits often use statewide results of recent presidential elections for comparison with subsequent Senate elections. Six of the 12 Democrats are from states won by George W. Bush in the 2004 election (Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia) while four of the 23 Republicans are from states won by John Kerry (Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Oregon).
Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" -- the race is not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" -- the race is currently not competitive, but may become competitive if new political factors intervene.
"Leans" -- the race is competitive, but one candidate has a clear advantage.
"Tossup" -- neither candidate has a clear advantage.
The ratings below are current as of March 252008.
Races where one party is considered "Safe" by all sources are not included in the table. Currently these include:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC:
Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Rhode Island, and West Virginia
SAFE REPUBLICAN:
Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Wyoming, and Wyoming*
Also not included in the table are the 39 Democratic and 26 Republican seats not up for election this year.
An asterisk (*) denotes a special election.
| Source | Safe Democratic | Democrat Favored | Leans Democratic | Tossup | Leans Republican | Republican Favored | Safe Republican |
| The Cook Political Report (updates) |
New Jersey | South Dakota Virginia |
Louisiana | Alaska Colorado Minnesota New Hampshire New Mexico |
Maine Oregon |
Mississippi* Nebraska |
Alabama Georgia Kentucky North Carolina Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
| CQ Politics (updates) |
South Dakota | New Jersey Virginia |
Louisiana New Mexico |
Colorado Minnesota New Hampshire |
Alaska Maine Oregon |
Alabama Georgia Kentucky Mississippi* Nebraska North Carolina Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
|
| The Rothenberg Political Report (updates) |
New Jersey South Dakota |
Virginia | New Mexico | Colorado Louisiana Minnesota New Hampshire |
Alaska Oregon |
Kentucky Maine North Carolina |
Alabama Georgia Mississippi* Nebraska Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
| Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (updates) |
New Jersey South Dakota |
(none) | Colorado New Hampshire Virginia |
Louisiana New Mexico |
Alaska Maine Minnesota Mississippi* Oregon |
(none) | Alabama Georgia Kentucky Nebraska North Carolina Oklahoma Tennessee Texas |
| UpFront Politics (updates) |
New Jersey South Dakota Virginia |
Colorado Louisiana New Hampshire |
New Mexico | Maine Minnesota Oregon |
Alaska Kentucky Nebraska North Carolina |
Alabama Georgia Mississippi* Oklahoma Tennessee Texas | |
Races
Retirements
Five senators, all Republicans, — Wayne Allard (CO), John Warner (VA), Chuck Hagel (NE), Larry Craig (ID), and Pete Domenici (NM) — have announced their retirements.
Wayne Allard (R) of Colorado
In Colorado, incumbent Republican Senator Wayne Allard limited himself to two terms. On January 15, 2007, he announced he would not seek re-election.[4] Allard has had fairly low approval ratings, suggesting this race could have been close.
Former Representative Bob Schaffer has announced his candidacy.[5] He is helped by the fact that other possible candidates, like former Congressman Scott McInnis and Colorado Attorney General John Suthers, a former El Paso County District Attorney, decided not to run.
The Democratic nominee will almost certainly be Representative Mark Udall, (CO-2) who has announced that he will seek the seat and is unlikely to draw significant primary opposition.[6]
The 2008 Democratic National Convention will be held in Denver. Bob Kinsey is also running as the Green Party nominee. [7]
Larry Craig (R) of Idaho
On September 1 2007, Senator Larry Craig announced his intent to resign from the Senate effective September 30.[8] The announcement followed by just six days the disclosure that he had pleaded guilty on August 1 to a reduced misdemeanor charge arising out of his arrest on June 11 at the Minneapolis airport for soliciting sex with a man in the restroom. Craig found almost no support among Republicans in his home state or Washington. Kent Marmon of the Libertarian Party is also running [4]
On October 4, Senator Craig announced he will not seek reelection, but would remain in office until the end of his term.[9]
Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch is the leading Republican candidate.[10] On the Democratic side, former congressman Larry LaRocco is the leading candidate.[11] Risch and LaRocco ran against each other in the 2006 Lieutenant Governor race, which Risch won by a wide margin.
The last Democratic Senator from Idaho was Frank Church, who was defeated in the Republican landslide of 1980 after serving four terms.
Chuck Hagel (R) of Nebraska
In Nebraska, incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Hagel chose to retire and not seek the 2008 Presidential nomination. This makes what was a safe Republican seat more competitive.[12]
Former Governor Mike Johanns, who recently resigned as U.S. Secretary of Agriculture is the likely nominee for the Republican Party.
On the Democratic side, former Congressional candidate Scott Kleeb announced on February 25, 2008 that he will run. Kleeb, a 32-year-old rancher and history professor at Hastings College, lost an open seat race to Rep. Adrian M. Smith in 2006 by 10 points, a very strong showing in a conservative House district.
Nebraska state Green Party Co-Chairman Steve Larrick is also a candidate.[13]
Pete Domenici (R) of New Mexico
While Senator Pete Domenici had declared that he would seek reelection in New Mexico, he changed his mind and announced on October 4, 2007 that he was retiring at the end of his current term due to a degenerative brain disorder.[14] Domenici normally would have been expected to win re-election easily, having won his current term with the support of two out of three New Mexico voters; however, he is to be investigated by the Senate Ethics Committee for his role in firing U.S. Attorney David Iglesias. Domenici's role in the developing scandal had reduced the probability he would have been re-elected, and a SurveyUSA poll showed his approval ratings at 41%, with 54% disapproving.[15] The potential scandal may have also contributed to his decision to leave the Senate.
Rep. Tom Udall (D) had initially ruled out a run, but announced on November 12 that he is running.[16]
Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez had announced that he will run for the open seat.[17] Chavez was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1998. On December 7, 2007, however, he bowed out of the race and supported Udall.[18]
One minor Democratic candidate has also expressed intent to run. Leland Lehrman, 37, edits an alternative bi-weekly newspaper in northern New Mexico.[19]
Among Republicans, Rep. Heather Wilson, who is considered by many to be Domenici's protégé, has announced her candidacy.[20] She has won re-election in a highly marginal district against well-financed challenges. However, she is also snared in the same U.S. Attorney controversy as Domenici, although how much damage it will cause is unclear. Rep. Steve Pearce, who represents the more conservative southern part of the state, has also announced.[21]
John Warner (R) of Virginia
John Warner announced on August 31, 2007 that he would not seek reelection for another term.[22] Former Governor Jim Gilmore, who recently dropped out of the 2008 presidential election, is running for the seat.[23] After the state Republican Party chose to choose the 2008 U.S. Senate nominee through a convention rather than a primary, Congressman Thomas M. Davis, who was interested in running, decided against the Senate race.[24]
Popular Democratic former Governor Mark Warner has entered the race.[25] Polling shows him as a strong favorite to win the seat.[26]
Possible retirements
Michael Enzi (R) of Wyoming
Senator Mike Enzi is likely to be re-elected without significant opposition for a third term in strongly Republican Wyoming. However, it is still possible that he may retire.
Democratic incumbent races
Mark Pryor of Arkansas
Despite being a first-term senator in a state George W. Bush won twice, Democrat Mark Pryor will face no opposition from Republicans in his reelection bid. It was rumored that Lt. Governor Bill Halter would challenge Pryor in the primary, but Halter declined to file as a candidate.[27]
Joe Biden of Delaware
Having dropped his presidential run[28] following a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, Joe Biden is not expected to face serious opposition in his bid for re-election.
Dick Durbin of Illinois
Senate Majority Whip Richard Durbin remains favored in Illinois. He seeks to be reelected in a state that has steadily become more Democratic since 1992. CQpolitics.com rates the contest as "safe Democrat."
Physician Steve Sauerberg of La Grange won the February 5 Republican primary.[29]
Tom Harkin of Iowa
Senator Tom Harkin has announced he will seek re-election.[30]
Harkin received 54% of the vote in 2002 against former Republican Congressman Greg Ganske. In 2006, the Democrats gained two of Iowa's U.S. House seats and won majorities in both chambers of the state legislature as well as retaining the Iowa Governor's mansion.
Congressman Steve King was widely rumored to be interested in the seat but he declined the opportunity, opting instead to run for re-election in his district.[31]
Steve Rathje, a businessman from Cedar Rapids, has entered the race.[32]
Mary Landrieu of Louisiana
Senator Mary Landrieu was elected in 1996 following a recount and was narrowly re-elected in 2002 in a runoff election. Since those elections, Democrats have had to endure the loss of many reliable voters because Hurricane Katrina dispersed many African-Americans from New Orleans. Louisiana elected David Vitter in 2004, the state's first Republican senator since Reconstruction. Louisiana's electoral votes also went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004
On August 27, 2007, state Treasurer John N. Kennedy announced he was switching parties from Democrat to Republican. On November 29, after being personally recruited by Vitter and former Bush administration official Karl Rove, Kennedy announced plans to challenge Landrieu in 2008.[33][34] A SurveyUSA poll shows him trailing Landrieu 46% to 42%.[35]
John Kerry of Massachusetts
Senator John Kerry is seeking another Senate term in Massachusetts.[36]A December 23, 2007, poll has his approval rating at 52%, with 43% disapproving.[37]
Republican author and conservative activist Jerome Corsi, known for his public criticism of Kerry, had stated that he would run for the seat in 2008 but later changed his mind. Another challenger to Kerry is Jeff Beatty, an ex-Army Delta Force officer who garnered 30% of the vote in a challenge to Democratic Congressman Bill Delahunt in 2006. In addition, Jim Ogonowski, a retired Air Force pilot who was closely defeated by now-Representative Niki Tsongas in a 2007 special election, is running against Kerry.[38]
Kerry is being challenged by defense attorney Edward O'Reilly for the Democratic nomination.
Carl Levin of Michigan
Senator Carl Levin has announced he will seek a sixth term in Michigan.[39]
With the Democratic Party takeover of Capitol Hill in the 2006 midterm elections, Levin has become one of the most powerful people in Washington as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. He is expected to easily win re-election. Republican Members of Congress Candice Miller (MI-10) and Mike J. Rogers (MI-8) have declined to challenge him. Levin's opponent in 2002, Republican former State Representative Andrew Raczkowski, along with Republican State Representative Jack Hoogendyk are preparing to declare their candidacies to challenge Levin.[40] A third possible candidate is Troy engineer Bart Baron.[41]
Max Baucus of Montana
Senator Max Baucus is a popular Democrat in Montana, representing a state that has long been fairly Republican but also is receptive to Democrats in state and local elections. President Bush won Montana by more than 20 points in both 2000 and 2004, but Montana also has a popular Democratic governor, Brian Schweitzer, and a newly elected Democratic junior senator, Jon Tester. Baucus is unlikely to face a significant challenge.
Rep Denny Rehberg was thought to be a potential candidate, which would have made the race a rematch of the 1996 contest, but on July 6, 2007 Rehberg announced that he would seek to remain in the House.[42] Michael Lange, the recently-ousted state House Majority Leader, announced on June 29, 2007 that he would challenge Baucus. However, former state Senator Bob Keenan has been approached by Republican leaders about a possible candidacy, due to their worries that Lange is not a viable candidate.[43]
Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey
Senator Frank Lautenberg has indicated that he will seek reelection in 2008 at the age of 84, although other Democratic politicians have also shown interest in running in New Jersey, including Congressmen Rob Andrews (NJ-1) and Rush Holt (NJ-12). It is unclear if any of these Democrats will actually challenge Lautenberg. In November, 2006, he had the lowest approval rating of any Democrat running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% approving and 45% disapproving),[44] with his approval standing only at 42% as of September 2007 with voters saying he does not deserve re-election 46%-36%.[45]
Among Republicans, state Senator Joseph Pennacchio is considered to be the frontrunner.[46] Another candidate is Dr. Murray Sabrin, a professor of economics and finance at Ramapo College and unsuccessful candidate in the 2000 U.S. Senate primary, has also announced his candidacy.[47] In January 2008, Dr. Sabrin was endorsed by Republican Presidential Candidate and longtime friend, Ron Paul.[48]
A March 2 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Lautenberg leading Pennacchio by 46% to 38% and Sabrin by 46% to 31%.[49]
Recently, Pennacchio was thrown on the defensive over a document called "The Nationalist Manifesto," which he authored in 1991 and which contains controversial proposals, leading Sabrin to call on him to withdraw from the race.[50]
Sara Lobman of the Socialist Workers Party and Independent Anthony Fisher[51] are also declared candidates.[52]
Jack Reed of Rhode Island
In Rhode Island, Democratic Senator Jack Reed had an approval rating of 66% in November 2006.[53] National Journal has declared that "Reed is probably the safest incumbent of the 2008 cycle."[54]
Tim Johnson of South Dakota
In South Dakota, Senator Tim Johnson's seat was considered a top GOP target in 2008, considering Johnson's narrow 524-vote victory in 2002 over then-Congressman and current U.S. Senator John Thune, as well as his recent health problems. Johnson underwent surgery in December 2006 for a Cerebral arteriovenous malformation and was discharged from the hospital on April 30, 2007. On October 19, Johnson formally announced that he is seeking re-election.[55] According to a November 2006 SurveyUSA poll, Johnson has an approval rating of 70%, with just 26% disapproving of his performance,[56] making him an early favorite despite the state's Republican leaning.
Republicans were attempting to persuade Governor Mike Rounds to run, and his approval ratings are similar to Johnson's. However, when the Republicans began polling potential challengers to Johnson, Rounds was not among them. Rounds recently indicated that he isn't interested in challenging Johnson, but would seriously consider running if Johnson were to retire.[57] State Representative Joel Dykstra (R) announced on July 5, 2007 that he was running. Former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2002, was also thinking of running,[58] but decided not to. Johnson had a 51-point lead over Kirby as of February 29, 2008, with 70% for Johnson and 19% for Kirby.[59]
Attempts to recruit a strong Republican candidate have so far been unsuccessful.[60] The filing deadline for candidates to run was March 25.
A March 7 Rasmussen Reports poll has Johnson leading Kirby 30 points, with 62% to Kirby's 32%, and leads Joel Dyksrta by 35 points, 63%-28%.[61]
Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia
Senator Jay Rockefeller, great-grandson of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, will seek a fifth term in West Virginia. Even though West Virginia is a historically Democratic state, in which the party had a 50-32% edge in party affiliation over the Republicans in the 2004 elections, the state party is more conservative than the national party, giving its votes to President George W. Bush in that election to allow him to win then and in 2000.[62]
Republican incumbent races
Jeff Sessions of Alabama
In Alabama, Senator Jeff Sessions is running for re-election. On January 10, 2007, U.S. Representative Artur Davis (AL-7) announced that he will not run for the seat.[63] Despite voting heavily for Bush in 2004, Alabama still has a strong Democratic presence; Democrats control majorities of both chambers in the state legislature. Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks appeared to be preparing for a run, but on June 12, 2007, Sparks announced that he will not seek the Senate seat, in order to avoid a primary battle with state Senator Vivian Davis Figures.[64] Figures has won elections in the Republican-leaning Mobile area.
One Independent has already announced he will run. Johnny Swanson announced his candidacy in March 2006.[65]
Ted Stevens of Alaska
After some rumours that Senator Ted Stevens will retire because of his age (he will be 85 years old in November) and federal investigations against him, he filed papers for re-election for an eighth term.[66] An oil company executive that bribed many Alaskan politicians paid for construction work on Stevens' personal residence. It has also been revealed that the FBI had recorded Stevens's phone calls with the Alaskan contractor who is cooperating with them.[67]
The FBI is investigating the remodeling of Stevens home by Veco Corp. which is part of a broader corruption investigation involving Stevens's son, former State Senate President Ben Stevens.[68] Two former Veco executives have plead guilty to paying the younger Stevens $242,000 in bribes.[69] On July 30, 2007, the IRS and FBI raided Stevens' home in Alaska. On September 14, 2007, former Veco CEO Bill Allen testified at the trial of former State House Speaker Pete Kott that Veco paid people working to double the size of Stevens' home.[70]
Republicans have several choices in this conservative state such as: former Lieutenant Governor Loren Leman; former state Senator. John Binkley, who ran for Governor in 2006; state Senate Minority Leader Gene Therriault; State House Speaker John Harris; and State Rep. Tom Anderson.[citation needed]
The leading Democratic candidate is Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of popular former Democratic Rep. Nick Begich, who announced the formation of an exploratory committee.[71] Other Democrats mentioned are State Rep. Eric Croft, a reformer who garnered attention when he sought the governorship in 2006, state Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis as well as State Rep. Scott Kawasaki are also on the list of Democratic prospects".[72]
On October 19, 2007, the AP reported that despite the allegations and FBI probe, several veteran GOP Senators—including Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Kit Bond (R-MO) -- donated enough money to Stevens's re-election campaign to make it one of Stevens's most successful fund raising quarters ever.[73]
Saxby Chambliss of Georgia
In 2002, Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss defeated Democratic incumbent Max Cleland, a decorated disabled Vietnam Veteran. Chambliss will seek reelection in 2008. As of December 2007, Chambliss has an approval rating of 53%, with 34% disapproval rating according to Strategic Vision, a Republican polling firm.[74]
Democrat Vernon Jones, CEO of Dekalb County, has indicated an interest in running and is canvassing the state to determine voters' concerns. Jones is African-American and a conservative Democrat who voted for George W. Bush in 2004.[75] Veteran Atlanta investigative journalist Dale Cardwell declared his candidacy in June 2007. Josh Lanier, a Vietnam veteran and former congressional aide to former Sen. Herman Talmadge (D-GA), has also announced that he will run for Democratic nomination.[76]
Libertarian Allen Buckley is a declared candidate,[77] along with frequent candidate Eleanor Garcia of the Socialist Workers Party.[78]
Pat Roberts of Kansas
Senator Pat Roberts has indicated that he will seek re-election. Although Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, former Democratic Congressman Jim Slattery has indicated he will challenge Roberts. Pat Roberts currently has an approval rating of 56%.[79]
Mitch McConnell of Kentucky
Democrats have made Senate Minority Leader, four-term Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky a target due to his leadership of Senate Republicans and his ties to President Bush, as well as his mediocre approval rating in the state, which is below 50%.[80] Former Attorney General and Congressman Ben Chandler (KY-6) was the top pick among national Democrats as he has won statewide recognition and was reelected in his Republican leaning district, but he has stated he will pass on the race.
Businessman Bruce Lunsford, who lost the 2007 Democratic gubernatorial primary to now-Governor Steve Beshear, announced that he will challenge McConnell and appears to have the backing of the DSCC. Businessman Greg Fischer and six other candidates have also filed to run in the Democratic primary.[81]
Andrew Horne, a Louisville attorney, and Iraq War Veteran who appeared to be a strong candidate for the Democratic nomination, dropped out two weeks after filing to run.[82]
Susan Collins of Maine
In Maine, Susan Collins has informed the Lewiston Sun Journal that she intends to seek another term.[83] Collins is likely to start as a strong favorite.[84] Also in her favor is the landslide re-election of Maine's senior Senator, Olympia Snowe, who had the largest margin of victory of any GOP Senate candidate - besides the largely unopposed Dick Lugar (R-IN) - in the 2006 election cycle. Collins was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2002 over State Sen. Chellie Pingree. Sen. Joe Lieberman, citing his status as an independent, endorsed Sen. Collins in her 2008 re-election bid.
On May 8, 2007, Rep. Tom Allen (ME-1) announced his candidacy on his website. He had already expressed interest in running and had been building the apparatus necessary to wage a Senate campaign.[85] On the same day a poll was released by Critical Insights, an independent polling firm in Portland, ME, which showed Sen. Collins as the clear early favorite, with Collins leading Allen 57% to 30%, and another poll shows Collins with a lead of 57% to 32%.
Norm Coleman of Minnesota
Senator Norm Coleman won a tight contest in 2002 against Walter Mondale (former US vice president) after incumbent Paul Wellstone (DFL), died in an October plane crash. Many of Minnesota's more experienced politicos[weasel words] saw Coleman's electoral success as emanating directly from the reports[citation needed] of the Wellstone memorial as highly partisan and not, as many say[weasel words], a rightward drift in Minnesota politics. In 2006, popular Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty barely won re-election, Democrat Amy Klobuchar defeated retiring Republican representative Mark Kennedy in a senate race, and the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) party took large majorities in the State House, gaining 19 seats, and made further gains in the state senate. Six-term Republican representative Gil Gutknecht was also defeated that year.
Comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken confirmed on the final broadcast of his radio show on Air America, February 14, 2007, that he will run for the Senate seat in 2008.[86] He had publicly speculated about running for some time and in 2005, he established the Midwest Values PAC to lay the groundwork for that campaign. Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, a professor at the University of St. Thomas (St. Paul, Minnesota), joined the race in October of 2007.[87]
Attorney Mike Ciresi, who lost to Mark Dayton in the 2000 Democratic senate primary, was considered (along with Franken) most likely to become the Democratic nominee. However, Ciresi withdrew from the race on March 10 2008.[88]
The 2008 Republican National Convention is being held in the capital city of Saint Paul, where Coleman was once Mayor (elected in 1993 as a moderate-to-conservative DFLer and re-elected in 1997 as a Republican).
On June 12, 2007, Joe Repya announced that he is considering challenging Coleman in the Republican primary. The previous week Repya ran for election of the chair of the Minnesota GOP. He lost that election. Repya, a retired lieutenant colonel, is a pro-Iraq War activist and formerly advised Coleman on military and veterans issues in his 2002 campaign.[89] Michael Cavlan the 2006 Green Party candidate for the United States Senate is running again in 2008. [citation needed]
Early polling showed Coleman with a large lead over prospective Democratic opponents.[citation needed] A December 2007 poll showed Coleman's approval rating among Minnesota voters as 53%.[90] However, the polls have narrowed considerably since then, with a January 29 Minnesota Public Radio poll showing the first lead for Franken over Coleman.[91]
Thad Cochran of Mississippi
Incumbent Senator Thad Cochran has announced that he will seek re-election for a sixth term.[92] Cochran has not faced serious opposition since he was reelected in 1984.
Roger Wicker of Mississippi
Roger Wicker, formerly the representative of Mississippi's 1st congressional district, was appointed by Governor Haley Barbour on December 312007, to fill the vacancy caused by the December 18 resignation of Trent Lott.[93][94] It has been speculated that Lott wished to resign before a new lobbying reform law, effective the first day of 2008, took effect; resigning before the end of 2007 will allow Lott to become a lobbyist, if he so chooses, in 2009 instead of 2010.[95] Controversy arose when Barbour called for the special election to be held on the same day as the general election. As a result, Mississippi's Attorney General Jim Hood challenged Barbour in court, claiming that the special election needed to be held within 100 days of Lott's resignation, as per state law.[96] Initially, a Mississippi Circuit Court judge sided with Hood, ruling that the election take place on or before March 192008.[97] However, Barbour filed an appeal to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which overturned the earlier ruling and set the special election for November 42008.[98][99]
Democratic former governor Ronnie Musgrove will challenge Wicker.[100] Another Democrat, former congressman Ronnie Shows, also filed to run, but he withdrew in February 2008 and endorsed Mugsrove.[101][102] There will be no special primary election for this race; if the top candidate does not get a majority of the votes, a runoff election with the top two candidates will be held on November 252008.
John Sununu of New Hampshire
Senator John Sununu represents the swing state of New Hampshire. The state traditionally leaned Republican, but John Kerry from neighboring Massachusetts narrowly won here in the 2004 Presidential election. New Hampshire also saw major Democratic gains in the 2006 elections, when Democrats took both of the previously Republican-held House seats, the gubernatorial race with a record vote share of 74%, and majorities in the State House and Senate, giving them concurrent control of both bodies for the first time since 1874. However, New Hampshire has not elected a Democratic United States Senator since 1975.
However, Sununu's 2002 opponent, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, has decided to run and is generally held to be a far more formidable challenger.[103] A February 132008 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Shaheen defeating Sununu by 49% to 41%.[104]
Prior to Shaheen's entry, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand,[105] Katrina Swett, wife of former Democratic congressman Richard Swett,[106] and former astronaut Jay Buckey[107] had announced that they were running for the Democratic nomination. After Shaheen's entry, however, all three withdrew and endorsed the former governor.
Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina
In North Carolina, there had been rumors that Senator Elizabeth Dole would retire from the Senate and run for governor, but she said in 2006 that she intends to run for re-election.[108] She is believed to be the favorite unless she faces Democratic Governor Mike Easley, who will not be running for re-election because of term limits. A Dole-Easley race would be highly competitive, but Easley indicated that he is not interested in serving in any legislature when the DSCC attempted to recruit him for the race. A January 2007 poll showed Easley defeating Dole, 44% to 41%.[109]
Jim Neal, a financial adviser and a former national finance committee member for Wes Clark for President and the Kerry-Edwards campaigns, has entered the race, as have John Ross Hendrix and state Senator Kay R. Hagan.[110] There are other Democrats whose names have been mentioned, such as first lady Mary Easley, state Representative/Army Major Grier Martin, retired General Henry Hugh Shelton, state Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and state Attorney General Roy A. Cooper. A Public Policy Polling poll showed Dole leading U.S. Representative Brad Miller 44% to 33%, with 22% undecided, but Miller announced June 25 that he would not run against her.[111]
Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma
In Oklahoma, Senator Jim Inhofe has announced that he will seek a third full term. A September 2007 poll put Inhofe's approval rating at 47%, with 41% disapproving of his performance.[112]
State Senator Andrew Rice announced he will run against Inhofe.[113]
Gordon Smith of Oregon
Senator Gordon Smith of Oregon is running for a third term, and may be vulnerable.
Oregon House of Representatives Speaker Jeff Merkley and long time Democratic activist Steve Novick are the two announced candidates for the Democratic nomination.[114][115]
Smith could also draw opposition from the right as he has been singled out by the Club for Growth for not doing enough to cut taxes.[116] Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore has not ruled out challenging Smith in the Republican primary.[citation needed]
Lindsey Graham of South Carolina
Senator Lindsey Graham, as a popular Republican incumbent in strongly conservative South Carolina, is unlikely to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenge. Graham's support for a compromise immigration bill, however, has drawn an angry response from many South Carolina conservatives, which could help fuel a conservative primary challenge. Summerville businessman and "grassroots right wing conservative" John J. Cina has launched a challenge to Graham for the Republican nomination.[117] In July 2007 there was talk that former state House Speaker David Wilkins, currently United States Ambassador to Canada, might run.[118]
Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Former Governor and U.S. Secretary of Education Lamar Alexander was elected in 2002 to succeed retiring Senator Fred Thompson. He has announced he will seek a second term in 2008.[119]
Campaign finance reform activist and perennial candidate John Jay Hooker will likely run for the seat, either in the Democratic Primary or as an independent in the general election. He has not, however, been considered a serious candidate since he lost the 1976 senatorial primary to Jim Sasser. His many recent statewide campaigns have been seen merely as excuses for him to file lawsuits against the opposing candidates for supposedly unethical campaign fundraising practices and to promote his own campaign finance reform efforts.[120]
Former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett says he plans to enter the Democratic primary for the senate seat currently held by Republican Lamar Alexander.
Bob Tuke, former Tennessee Democratic Party chair has announced a run for U.S. Senate from Tennessee. A Nashville attorney, he hopes to ride a wave of Obama support and mobilize an electorate fed up with a failing economy.
Chris Lugo was running as a Democrat. He is a Nashville peace activist who has been involved in the movement for peace and global justice for twenty years. In 2006 he ran as the Green Party of Tennessee candidate for US Senate. Due to Bob Tuke entering the Democratic primary, Chris Lugo is now seeking the Green party nomination. Also in the race is Edward Buck.
Daniel Lewis is running as a Libertarian candidate for the United States Senate. He was certified March 3, 2008 by the Tennessee Division of Elections as having achived ballot access for the November 4, 2008 election as a candidate for United States Senate. The Libertarian Party of Tennessee officially selected Daniel Lewis as their candidate for United States Senate on Saturday March 8, 2008 the at their annual convention held in Nashville, Tennessee. Mr. Lewis is currently serving as the chairman of the Libertarian Party of Metropolitan Nashville and Davidson County. He ran for the Tennessee House in 2004.[121]
John Cornyn of Texas
Senator John Cornyn had a 42% job approval rating as of June 2007, but Texas has not elected a Democrat in a statewide election since 1994. The announced Democratic candidates were educator Ray McMurrey and state representative and Afghanistan War veteran Rick Noriega. Plaintiff's attorney Mikal Watts had explored a bid for the Democratic nomination but announced on October 23, 2007 his decision not to run.[122] Noriega won the Democratic primary with 51 percent of the vote.[123]
Christian activist Larry Kilgore of Mansfield, Texas, was a Republican challenger for the March 2008 primary election. Cornyn easily won the Republican primary.[124]
There are three Libertarians, including 2006 LP senate nominee Scott Jameson, running for their party's nomination.[125] In addition, the Green Party of Texas is seeking ballot access for its candidate David B. Collins.[126]
John Barrasso of Wyoming
John Barrasso was appointed by Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) on June 22 2007 to fill the senate seat of Republican Craig L. Thomas, who died on June 4.[127] Wyoming law requires that the interim senator be affiliated with the same political party as the departed senator. Barrasso is running in the November 82008 special election, which will be held on the day of the 2008 presidential election, to serve out the remainder of Thomas' term, which expires in January 2013.[128]
On the Democratic side, Casper City Councilman Keith Goodenough has announced his candidacy.[129]
Summary table
| State | Incumbent Senator | 2008 Election Status | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | Green Party Candidate | Libertarian Candidate | Other Candidates | Previous Election Results[130] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL | Jeff Sessions | Re-election | Vivian Davis Figures, Johnny Swanson | Jeff Sessions | Jeff Sessions (R) 59%; Susan Parker (D) 40%; Other 1% | |||
| AK | Ted Stevens | Re-election | Nels Anderson, Mark Begich, Ray Metcalfe | Ted Stevens, Dave Cuddy, Jerry Heikes | Ted Gianoutsos (Veterans) | Ted Stevens (R) 78% ; Frank Vondersaar (D) 11%; Jim Sykes (G) 8%; Other 3% | ||
| AR | Mark Pryor | Re-election | Mark Pryor | None | Rebekah Kennedy | Don Hamrick (I) | Tim Hutchinson (R) 46%; Mark Pryor (D) 54% | |
| CO | Wayne Allard | Retiring | Mark Udall, Art Benner | Bob Schaffer, Vincent Martinez | Bob Kinsey, Buddy Moore | None | Wayne Allard (R) 51%; Tom Strickland (D) 46%; Other 3% | |
| DE | Joe Biden | Re-election | Joe Biden | None | Joe Biden (D) 58%; Raymond Clatworthy (R) 41%; Other 1% | |||
| GA | Saxby Chambliss | Re-election | Dale Cardwell, Vernon Jones, Rand Knight, Josh Lanier | Saxby Chambliss | Jon Banks, Allen Buckley | Max Cleland (D) 46%; Saxby Chambliss (R) 53%; Other 1% | ||
| ID | Larry Craig | Retiring | David Archuleta, Larry LaRocco | Fred Adams, Brian Hefner, Bill Hunter, Richard Phenneger, Jim Risch, Hal Styles, Scott Syme, Neal Thompson | Kent Marmon | Rex Rammell, Pro-Life | Larry Craig (R) 65%; Alan Blinken (D) 33%; Other 2% | |
| IL | Dick Durbin | Re-election | Dick Durbin | Steve Sauerberg | None | Larry Stafford | Alton Franklin (I), Betsy Farley (SW) | Dick Durbin (D) 60%; Jim Durkin (R) 38%; Other 2% |
| IA | Tom Harkin | Re-election | Tom Harkin | George Eichhorn, Steve Rathje, Christopher Reed | Diana Newberry (SW) | Tom Harkin (D) 54%; Greg Ganske (R) 44%; Other 2% | ||
| KS | Pat Roberts | Re-election | Jim Slattery | Pat Roberts | Pat Roberts (R) 83%; Steven Rosile (L) 9%; George Cook (Reform) 8% | |||
| KY | Mitch McConnell | Re-election | Michael Cassaro, Greg Fischer, Bruce Lunsford, James Rice, Kenneth Stepp, David Williams, David Wylie | Mitch McConnell, Daniel Essek | Mitch McConnell (R) 65%; Lois Combs Weinberg (D) 35% | |||
| LA | Mary Landrieu | Re-election | Mary Landrieu | John Kennedy | Mary Landrieu (D) 52%; Suzanne Haik Terrell (R) 48% | |||
| ME | Susan Collins | Re-election | Tom Allen, Thomas Ledue | Susan Collins | Susan Collins (R) 58%; Chellie Pingree (D) 42% | |||
| MA | John Kerry | Re-election | John Kerry, Ed O'Reilly | Jeff Beatty, Kevin Scott | John Kerry (D) 80%; Michael Cloud (L) 18%; Other 2% | |||
| MI | Carl Levin | Re-election | Carl Levin | None | Carl Levin (D) 60%; Andrew Raczkowski (R) 38%; Other 2% | |||
| MN | Norm Coleman | Re-election | Al Franken, Dick Franson, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer | Norm Coleman | Michael Cavlan, Thomas Harens | Ernest Mailhot (SW), James Wellstone (MIP), Stephen Wiliams (MIP) | Walter Mondale (D) 47%; Norm Coleman (R) 50%; Other 3% | |
| MS | Thad Cochran | Re-election | Erik Fleming | Thad Cochran | Thad Cochran (R) 85%; Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 15% | |||
| MS* | Roger Wicker | Running for Election | Ronnie Musgrove | Roger Wicker | Trent Lott (R) 64%; Erik Fleming (D) 35% | |||
| MT | Max Baucus | Re-election | Max Baucus | Kirk Bushman, Shay Garnett, Bob Kelleher, Mike Lange, Patty Lovaas, Anton Pearson | Max Baucus (D) 63%; Mike Taylor (R) 32%; Other 5% | |||
| NE | Chuck Hagel | Retiring | Scott Kleeb, Larry Marvin, Tony Raimondo, James Bryan Wilson | Pat Flynn, Mike Johanns | Steve Larrick | Kelly Rosberg (Nebraska) | Chuck Hagel (R) 83%; Charlie Matulka (D) 15%; Other 2% | |
| NH | John Sununu | Re-election | Jeanne Shaheen | John Sununu | Bea Francoeur | John Sununu (R) 51%; Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46%; Other 3% | ||
| NJ | Frank Lautenberg | Re-election | Frank Lautenberg | Joseph Pennacchio, Murray Sabrin | Sara Lobman (SW), Anthony Fisher (I) | Frank Lautenberg (D) 54%; Doug Forrester (R) 44%; Other 2% | ||
| NM | Pete Domenici | Retiring | Tom Udall | Steve Pearce, Heather Wilson | Pete Domenici (R) 65%; Gloria Tristani (D) 35% | |||
| NC | Elizabeth Dole | Re-election | Kay Hagan, Duskin Lassiter, Jim Neal, Howard Staley, Marcus Williams | Elizabeth Dole, Pete DiLauro | Elizabeth Dole (R) 54%; Erskine Bowles (D) 45%; Other 1% | |||
| OK | Jim Inhofe | Re-election | Andrew Rice | Jim Inhofe | Jim Inhofe (R) 57%; David Walters (D) 36%; James Germalic (I) 6%; Other 1% | |||
| OR | Gordon Smith | Re-election | Pavel Goberman, David Loera, Jeff Merkley, Candy Neville, Steve Novick, Roger Obrist | Gordon Smith, Gordon Leitch | John Frohnmayer (I) | Gordon Smith (R) 56%; Bill Bradbury (D) 40%; Other 4% | ||
| RI | Jack Reed | Re-election | Jack Reed | None | Jack Reed (D) 78%; Robert Tingle (R) 22% | |||
| SC | Lindsey Graham | Re-election | None | Lindsey Graham, Tim Carnes, John Cina | Lindsey Graham (R) 54%; Alex Sanders (D) 44%; Other 2% | |||
| SD | Tim Johnson | Re-election | Tim Johnson | Joel Dykstra, Sam Kephart, Charles Lyonel Gonyo | Tim Johnson (D) 50%; John Thune (R) 49%; Other 1% | |||
| TN | Lamar Alexander | Re-election | Bob Tuke | Lamar Alexander | David Gatchell (I) Emory "Bo" Heyward (I) |
Lamar Alexander (R) 54%; Bob Clement (D) 44%; Other 2% | ||
| TX | John Cornyn | Re-election | Rick Noriega | John Cornyn | David Collins, Tom Davis | Scott Jameson, Jon Roland, Yvonne Adams Schick | Jacquie Henderson (SW), Alfred Adask (C) | John Cornyn (R) 55%; Ron Kirk (D) 43%; Other 2% |
| VA | John Warner | Retiring | Mark Warner | Jim Gilmore | John Warner (R) 83%; Nancy Spannaus (I) 10%; Jacob G. Hornberger (I) 7% | |||
| WV | Jay Rockefeller | Re-election | Jay Rockefeller, Sheirl Fletcher, Billy Hendricks | Jay Wolfe | Jay Rockefeller (D) 63%; Jay Wolfe (R) 37% | |||
| WY | Mike Enzi | Re-election | None | Mike Enzi | Mike Enzi (R) 73%; Joyce Jansa Corcoran (D) 27% | |||
| WY* | John Barrasso | Running for Election | Keith Goodenough | John Barrasso | Craig Thomas (R) 70%; Dale Groutage (D) 30% |
See also
- United States House elections, 2008
- United States presidential election, 2008
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2008
- United States Senate elections, 2006
- United States Senate elections, 2010
References
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{{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|work=(help) - ^ Statement from Mikal Watts October 23, 2007
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Goodenough announces Senate bid against Barrasso | KULR-8 TELEVISION - Billings, Montana | Wyoming State News
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