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2008 United States presidential election

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For other uses, see 2008 United States election (disambiguation).
United States presidential election, 2008
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 349 173
States carried 27+DC 22
Popular vote 63,347,102 56,009,353
Percentage 52% 46%
Presidential election results map. Red denotes states won by McCain/Palin, Blue denotes those won by Obama/Biden.
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

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The United States presidential election of 2008, held on Tuesday, November 4, 2008, is the 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election to select the President and the Vice President of the United States.

The Republican Party nominated John McCain, the senior United States Senator from Arizona as its nominee; the Democratic Party nominated Barack Obama, the junior United States Senator from Illinois, as its nominee. The Libertarian Party nominated former Congressman Bob Barr, the Constitution Party pastor and radio talk show host Chuck Baldwin, and the Green Party former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. Ralph Nader declined to seek the Green Party nomination and ran as an independent candidate.

Barack Obama won the number of electors necessary to be elected President. He is the president-elect, and will be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.[1]

The 2008 election was the first time in U.S. history that an African American was elected president. It was also the first time two sitting senators ran against each other, as well as the first time an African American was a presidential nominee for a major party. Since the Republican nominee for vice-president was a woman, Governor Sarah Palin, the eventual winning ticket was bound to be historic, as neither an African American nor a female had achieved either of the respective offices. If John McCain had been elected, he would have been the oldest first-term president. Senator Joseph Biden is the first Roman Catholic vice president to be elected.

The election coincided with the 2008 Senate elections in thirty-three states, House of Representatives elections in all states, and gubernatorial elections in eleven states, as well as various state referenda and local elections. As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state was based on the 2000 Census. The remaining two electoral votes represent the two Senators from each state serving the U.S. (Washington D.C. is served through the 23rd Amendment).

Characteristics

Template:Wikinewshas

No incumbents

The 2008 election marked the first time since the 1952 election that neither the incumbent President nor incumbent Vice President was a candidate in the general election, and the first time since the 1928 election that neither one was a candidate for his party's nomination.[2] The incumbent President, George W. Bush, was serving his second and final term and was barred from running again by the term limits in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution. Vice President Dick Cheney chose not to seek the presidency. From 2001, Cheney frequently stated he would never run for President: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[3]

In the three previous two-term Presidential administrations — those of Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton — the incumbent vice president had immediately thereafter run for president. Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.[4][5] The 2008 election was the first in which the Vice President was not a candidate for either the presidency or the vice presidency since Nelson Rockefeller in 1976.[citation needed]

Leading candidates were senators

The nominees for the major party nominations were both serving United States Senators: Republican candidate John McCain (Arizona) and Democratic candidate Barack Obama (Illinois). It was the first time in history that the two main opponents in the general election were both sitting Senators.[6] Thus, the 2008 election marked the first time since the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 that a sitting Senator was elected President of the United States, and only the third time ever in American history, after John F. Kennedy and Warren G. Harding. Obama's running mate, Joe Biden (Delaware), was also a sitting Senator. With Obama's victory, Biden, having been a Senator since January 1973 and having served for the past 36 years, became the longest serving Senator in history to become a first term Vice President. For his part, McCain would have, if elected, become the first prisoner of war since Andrew Jackson to become President as well as the first to become President while winning at least 4 Senate terms. Senator John Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004 during his fourth Senate term. He narrowly lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College to President George W. Bush.

Leading candidates' origins

Either major party candidate would have become the first president born outside the continental United States, as Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii and McCain was born at Coco Solo, Panama Canal Zone, a US naval base. A bipartisan legal review agreed that McCain is a natural-born citizen of the United States, a constitutional requirement to become president.[7] Obama, having a white mother and Kenyan father of the Luo ethnic group[8] will be the first president to be black and to be biracial. McCain would have been the first president from Arizona, while Obama will be the third president elected from Illinois, the first two being Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant[9] (Ronald Reagan was born in Illinois, but was a former governor of California). The last candidates to run from these states were Adlai Stevenson (D) of Illinois, who ran and lost in 1952 and 1956, and Barry Goldwater (R) of Arizona, who ran and lost in 1964. While being elected from Illinois, Obama will become the first president from Hawaii, his home state by birth.

Leading candidates' ages

Had he been elected president, McCain, on January 20, 2009, would have been the oldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency at age 72 years and 144 days,[10] and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated (Ronald Reagan was 73 years and 350 days old at his second inauguration).[11] Barack Obama and John McCain are 24 years and 340 days apart in age. This is the largest age disparity between the two major party presidential candidates, surpassing Bill Clinton and Bob Dole (23 years and 28 days apart in age) who ran against each other in the 1996 presidential election.

Election controversies

A number of pre-election controversies revolved around challenges to voter registration lists, involving techniques such as caging lists alleged to constitute voter suppression. Reporter Greg Palast predicted many 2004 United States election voting controversies could recur,[12] and voter list purges using unlawful criteria caused controversy in at least six swing states: Colorado, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina.[13] On October 5, 2008 the Republican Lt. Governor of Montana, John Bohlinger, accused the Montana Republican Party of vote caging to purge 6,000 voters from three counties which trend Democratic.[14] Allegations arose in Michigan that the Republican Party planned to challenge the eligibility of voters based on lists of foreclosed homes,[15] which led to a lawsuit from the Obama campaign[16] and a letter from the House Judiciary Committee to the Department of Justice calling for an investigation.[17]

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr filed a lawsuit in Texas petitioning to have Obama and McCain removed from the ballot in that state.[18] The suit alleged that both the Republicans and Democrats missed the deadline to file, and were present on the ballot contrary to Texas election law. The Texas Supreme Court dismissed the lawsuit without giving an explanation.[19]

Virginia election authorities were ordered by a federal judge to preserve late arriving absentee ballots sent by active-duty military personnel following an allegation that the absentee ballots were sent late to servicemen.[20]According to federal law, absentee ballots must be mailed to troops in foreign countries at least 45 days prior to an election. The charge against Virginia was that the ballots were not even printed until after the deadline and therefore were certainly mailed late to soldiers abroad. [21]

Guam's 173,000 residents are U.S. citizens, and must obey U.S. laws passed in Washington, yet they have neither a voting member of Congress, nor votes in the Electoral College.[22] They have held a straw poll for president, contemporaneously with the U.S. national elections, since 1980. Legislation moving that poll forward to draw attention to the results of Guam's election passed[22] but was vetoed.[23] In 2008, their ballot includes Barr, McCain, and Obama.

Campaign

See also: United States presidential election, 2008 timeline

Pre-primary campaign

"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates".[24] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.[25]

Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million; the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.[26] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Ron Paul.[27] Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007.[28] Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.[29]

Primaries and caucuses

Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 and Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Although the nomination process for each of the two major political parties technically continues through June, in previous cycles the candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This trend continued in 2008 on the Republican side, with John McCain locking up the nomination with victories in Texas and Ohio on March 4, but Democrat Barack Obama did not win the nomination until June 3, after a long campaign against Hillary Clinton. Obama had a wide lead in states won, but Democratic state delegate contests have been decided by a form of proportional representation since 1976.[30] Clinton claimed a lead in the popular vote, but the Associated Press found her numbers accurate only in one very close scenario.[31]

During late 2007, both parties adopted rules against states moving their primaries to an earlier date in the year. For the Republicans, the penalty for this violation is supposed to be the loss of half the state party's delegates to the convention. The Democratic Party only allowed four states to hold elections before February 5, 2008. Initially the Democratic Party leadership said it would strip all Democratic delegates from Florida and Michigan, which had moved their primaries all the way into January. All major candidates agreed officially not to campaign in Florida or Michigan, and Edwards and Obama had their names removed from the Michigan ballot. Clinton won a majority of delegates from both states (though 40% voted uncommitted) and subsequently led a fight to fully seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.[32]

Political columnist Christopher Weber notes that while this was self-serving, it was also pragmatic on the part of Clinton should Florida or Michigan voters not vote for Democrats in the general election based on the Democratic Party's decision regarding the seating of delegates.[33] This led to speculation that the fight over the delegates could last until the convention in August. However, on May 31, 2008, a deal was reached by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party that allows for delegates from Michigan and Florida to receive half a vote each.[34]

January 2008

Around the start of the year, support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa: the two upstart campaigns were triumphant. John McCain displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front-runner in New Hampshire.

While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was the new front runner in New Hampshire and the Clinton campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her campaign, Clinton's voice wavered with emotion in a public interview broadcast live on TV.[35] By the end of that day, Clinton won the primary by 2 points, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single digits less than a month before.[36]

With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests; in South Carolina Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon after.

February 2008

On February 3 on the UCLA campus, celebrities Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for Barack Obama in a rally led by Michelle Obama.[37] Obama trailed in the California polling by an average of 6.0%; he ended up losing the state by 8.3%.[38] Some analysts cited a large Latino turnout as the deciding factor.[39] On the Republican side, John McCain was endorsed by Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani (who had dropped out of the race following the Florida primary), giving McCain a significant boost in California state.[40] Schwarzenegger's wife, Maria Shriver, endorsed Obama.[41] By February 4, it was apparent that McCain might be able to wrap up the nomination quickly, while the Democratic candidates were hoping for a swing of momentum following the February 5 primaries.

Super Tuesday: On February 5, 2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state United States presidential primary elections was held.[42] Twenty-four states and American Samoa held either caucuses or primary elections for one or both parties on this date, leaving the Democrats in a virtual tie, and John McCain just short of clinching the Republican nod.[43] A few days later, Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed McCain, leaving Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul as the only major challengers of McCain in the remaining Republican primaries.[44]

Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while Nebraska and the U.S. Virgin Islands voted for the Democrats and Kansas voted for the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as the Maine caucuses the next day,[45] and Huckabee also came out on top in Kansas, winning by an even greater percentage. The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia voted for both parties on February 12 in what was referred to as Potomac primary. Obama won all three for the Democrats (giving him eight consecutive victories after Super Tuesday) and McCain took all three for the Republicans.

Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th.[46] Wisconsin and Washington voted for the Republicans on February 19; John McCain won these states.[46] The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico closed February for the Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.

March 2008

For the Republicans, on March 1 American Samoa voted. March 4 was dubbed by some as this year's Mini Tuesday,[47] when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then voted for the Democrats and Guam voted for the Republicans on March 8. Mississippi voted for both parties on March 11.

On March 4, Hillary Clinton carried Ohio and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries; some considered this a surprise upset,[48] though she led in the polling averages in both states.[38][49] She also carried the primary in Texas, but Obama won the Texas caucuses held the same day and netted more delegates from the state than Clinton.[50] John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four primaries, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, putting him over the top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination.[49] Mike Huckabee conceded the race to McCain, leaving Ron Paul, who had just 16 delegates, as his only remaining opponent for the Republican nomination.[51] In the Wyoming Democratic caucuses, Obama edged out Clinton to gain 7 delegates to her 5, and three days later he beat her again, 59%–39%, in Mississippi.

April through June 2008

Only one state voted in April: Pennsylvania, which held a primary for both parties on April 22. Hillary Clinton won this Democratic primary, with approximately 55% of the vote. Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses on May 3 by 7 votes out of more than 4,500. On May 6, Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary with 51% of the vote while Barack Obama won in North Carolina with 56% of the vote. Nebraska's Republican and West Virginia's Democratic primaries were held on May 13. In West Virginia, Clinton won with 67% of the vote and 20 of 28 pledged delegates. On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon held primaries for both parties. In Kentucky, Clinton won with 65% of the vote to Obama's 31%. In Oregon, Obama defeated Clinton, by a margin of 18%. Idaho voted for Republicans only on May 27. On May 31, Democratic Party officials, after a tense meeting between Clinton supporters and Obama backers, voted to seat all of Florida and Michigan's delegates at the party's convention, with each getting a half-vote.[52] Puerto Rico held a Democratic primary on June 1, which Clinton won with 68% of the vote to Obama's 32%. The primary season ended on June 3, with contests in New Mexico (Republican), Montana (Democratic), and South Dakota (both parties). Clinton won South Dakota's primary, while Obama was victorious in the Montana primary. As expected, John McCain won all the states during this time period handily, though typically 20-25% of the vote in the Republican primaries went to Huckabee and Paul, despite the fact both had already been mathematically eliminated from contention for the nomination.

July 2008

The Illinois Senator Barack Obama took a Middle East trip from Afghanistan to Iraq, Jordan and Israel where a small "Israel for Obama" rally was held for him.[53][54][55]

Party conventions

Presidential and vice-presidential debates

Main article: United States presidential election debates, 2008

Four debates were announced by the Commission on Presidential Debates:[56]

  • September 26: The first presidential debate took place at the University of Mississippi. The central issues debated were foreign policy and national security. The debate was formatted into nine nine-minute segments, and the moderator (Jim Lehrer) introduced the topics.[57]
  • October 2: The vice-presidential debate was hosted at Washington University in St. Louis, and was moderated by Gwen Ifill of PBS.
  • October 7: The second presidential debate took place at Belmont University. It was a town meeting format debate moderated by NBC News anchor Tom Brokaw, and addressed issues raised by members of the audience, particularly the economy.
  • October 15: The third and final presidential debate was hosted at Hofstra University. It focused on domestic and economic policy. Like the first presidential debate, it was formatted into a number of segments, with moderator Bob Schieffer introducing the topics.

Another debate was sponsored by the Columbia University political union and took place there on October 19. All candidates who could theoretically win the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election were invited, and Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney, and Chuck Baldwin agreed to attend. Amy Goodman, principal host of Democracy Now!, moderated. It was broadcast on cable by C-SPAN and on the Internet by Break-the-Matrix.[58][59]

Campaign costs

Main article: Fundraising for the 2008 United States presidential election

The reported cost of campaigning for President has increased significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004).[60] In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael E. Toner estimated the 2008 race will be a $1 billion election, and that to be taken seriously, a candidate needed to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.[61]

Although he had said he would not be running for president, published reports indicated that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg had been considering a presidential bid as an independent with up to $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.[62] Bloomberg ultimately ended this speculation by unequivocally stating that he would not run.[63] Had Bloomberg decided to run, he would not have needed to campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions, greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.

With the increase in money, the public financing system funded by the presidential election campaign fund checkoff has not been used by many candidates. John McCain,[64] Tom Tancredo,[65] John Edwards,[66] Chris Dodd,[67] and Joe Biden[68] qualified for and elected to take public funds in the primary. Other major candidates eschewed the low amount of spending permitted, or gave other reasons as in the case of Barack Obama, and have chosen not to participate.

Internet campaigns

Howard Dean collected large contributions via the internet in his 2004 primary run. In 2008 candidates went even further in reaching out to Internet users through their own sites and through sites such as YouTube, MySpace and Facebook.[69][70] Republican Ron Paul[71] and Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama were the most active in courting voters through the Internet.[72] On December 16, 2007, Ron Paul collected more money on a single day through Internet donations than any presidential candidate in US history with over $6 million.[73] Anonymous and semi-anonymous smear campaigns traditionally done with fliers and push calling have also spread to the Internet.[74]

Criticism of media coverage

Significant criticism has been leveled at media outlets' coverage of the presidential election season. Erica Jong commented that "our press has become a sea of triviality, meanness and irrelevant chatter."[75] ABC News hosted a debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on April 16 and moderators Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos were criticized by viewers, bloggers and media critics for the poor quality of their questions.[76][77]

Some of the questions many viewers said they considered irrelevant when measured against the faltering economy or the Iraq war, such as why Senator Barack Obama did not wear an American flag pin on his lapel, the incendiary comments of Obama’s former pastor, and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s assertion that she had to duck sniper fire in Bosnia more than a decade ago.[76] The questions from the moderators were considered to be focused on campaign gaffes and trained mostly on Obama,[77] which Stephanopoulos defended by saying that "Senator Obama was the front-runner" and the questions were "not inappropriate or irrelevant at all."[76][77]

A similar event occurred earlier at a debate in February where Tim Russert of NBC News was criticized for what was perceived as his disproportionately tough questioning of Clinton.[76] Among the questions Russert had asked Clinton, but not Obama, was to provide the name of the new Russian President (Dmitry Medvedev),[76] an event which was subsequently parodied on Saturday Night Live. In October 2007, liberal commentators accused Russert of harassing Clinton over driver's licenses for illegal immigrants and other issues.[77] In an op-ed published on April 27, 2008 in The New York Times, Elizabeth Edwards bemoaned that the media covered much more of "the rancor of the campaign" and "amount of money spent" than "the candidates' priorities, policies and principles."[78]

The Project for Excellence in Journalism and Harvard University's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy conducted a study of 5,374 media narratives and assertions about the presidential candidates from January 1, 2008 through March 9, 2008. The study found that Obama and Clinton received 69 and 67% favorable coverage, respectively, compared to only 43% favorable media coverage of McCain.[79] This trend widened following the presidential conventions, with an October 29 study of 43 news outlets finding 29% of stories about Obama to be negative, compared to 57% of stories about McCain being negative. This was most apparent on MSNBC, where 73% of McCain stories were negative compared to 14% for Obama.[80] Public perception of the media mirrored this trend, with an October 22 Pew Research Center poll finding that 70% of registered voters believe journalists want Barack Obama to win the election, as opposed to 9% for John McCain.[81]

Election Day

Final poll closing times on Election Day.
  7PM EST [00:00 UTC] (6)
  7:30PM EST [00:30 UTC] (3)
  8PM EST [01:00 UTC] (15+DC)
  8:30PM EST [01:30 UTC] (1)
  9PM EST [02:00 UTC] (15)
  10PM EST [03:00 UTC] (4)
  11PM EST [04:00 UTC] (5)
  1AM EST [06:00 UTC] (1)
Main article: Timeline of 2008 U.S. Election Day

After Election Day

  • December 15, 2008: Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President and Vice President.[needs update]
  • January 8, 2009: Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress.[needs update] Members of Congress may object to the certification of a state's electoral votes at this time.
  • January 20, 2009: Inauguration Day.[needs update]

Candidates

Main articles: List of candidates in the United States presidential election, 2008; Comparison of United States presidential candidates, 2008; Republican Party (United States) presidential candidates, 2008; Republican Party (United States) vice presidential candidates, 2008; Democratic Party (United States) presidential candidates, 2008; Democratic Party (United States) vice presidential candidates, 2008; Third party (United States) presidential candidates, 2008; 2008 Democratic National Convention; Republican National Convention; and 2008 Libertarian National Convention
Presidential candidate/running mate Party Campaign site
John McCain/Sarah Palin (campaign) Republican, New York Independence, New York Conservative johnmccain.com
Barack Obama/Joe Biden (campaign) Democratic, South Carolina United Citizens, New York Working Families[82] barackobama.com
Chuck Baldwin/Darrell Castle (campaign) Constitution, Kansas Reform, Virginia Independent Green baldwin2008.com
Bob Barr/Wayne Allyn Root (campaign) Libertarian bobbarr2008.com
Cynthia McKinney/Rosa Clemente (campaign) Green votetruth08.com
Ralph Nader/Matt Gonzalez (campaign) Independent, Independence-Ecology,[83] Peace and Freedom, Michigan Natural Law, Delaware Independent, Oregon Peace, New York Populist[82] votenader.org
Gene Amondson/Leroy Pletten Prohibition geneamondson.com
Róger Calero/Alyson Kennedy Socialist Workers themilitant.com
Charles Jay/Thomas L. Knapp Boston Tea CJ08.com
Alan Keyes/Brian Rohrbough (campaign) Independent, America's Independent alankeyes.com
Gloria La Riva/Eugene Puryear Socialism & Liberation votepsl.org
Brian Moore/Stewart Alexander Socialist, Vermont Liberty Union votesocialist2008.org
Thomas Stevens/Alden Link Objectivist objectivistparty.us

Election results

The voter turnout for this election was 64% by one calculation—the highest rate seen in 100 years.[84] However, as of 12 p.m. Eastern Time on November 5th, the total number of votes stands at only 120 million, many millions less than expected.[citation needed]

Grand total

Electoral vote projections per television network coverage (primarily CNN, ABC News, NBC News).

Electoral results
Presidential candidate Party Home state Popular vote Electoral
vote 		Running mate
Count Percentage Vice-presidential candidate Home state Electoral vote
John McCain Republican Arizona 55,900,534 46% 174 Sarah Palin Alaska 174
Barack Obama Democratic Illinois 63,249,576 53% 364 Joe Biden Delaware 364
Total 100% 538 538
Needed to win 270 270

Results by state

Popular vote results map
Projected win for McCain/Palin
Projected win for Obama/Biden
Polls closed, no projection
Further information: [[:United States presidential election: The popular vote on Election Day]]

Projections based on television network coverage. Notes identify networks of projection. Bold indicates actual vote count leader.

State McCain Obama Nader Barr Baldwin McKinney Others/Notes
Alabama 1,256,903 806,003 4,952 4,279 — — ABC, CNN projections
Alaska 122,606 71,106 2,429 965 1,037 — CNN, NBC projections
Arizona 1,010,612 847,480 9,135 10,357 — 2763 CNN projection
Arkansas 618,535 407,633 1,988 4,595 3,897 — ABC, NBC projections
California 3,693,865 6,125,805 78,506 49,569 — 22,166 CNN projection
Colorado 933,633 1,071,011 11,075 8,999 614 — CNN projection
Connecticut 589,615 921,280 17,223 — — — CNN projection
Delaware 152,356 255,394 — 1,108 626 — CNN projection
D.C. 14,821 210,403 851 — — 498 CNN projection
Florida 3,864,089 4,062,977 — 16,397 7,587 — CNN projection
Georgia 1,945,327 1,706,441 — 27,546 — — CNN projection
Hawaii 110,840 298,555 3,461 — 945 894 CNN projection
Idaho 321,061 180,780 5,508 2,884 3,868 — CNN projection
Illinois 1,969,828 3,264,595 30,298 18,999 — 11,375 CNN projection
Indiana 1,329,370 1,352,356 — 28,980 — — NBC, AP projections
Iowa 677,449 818,172 7,962 4,608 4,401 1,495 CNN projection
Kansas 6,713 4,306 13 5 5 — NBC, ABC projections
Kentucky 210,835 157,932 3,141 1,179 868 — CNN, FOX News projections
Louisiana — — — — — — ABC, NBC projections
Maine 217,297[85] 316,955 7,804 — — 2,158 CNN projection
Maryland — — — — — — CNN projection
Massachusetts 725 984 25 5 5 — CNN projection
Michigan 2,043,787 2,862,291 33,337 23,952 13 13 CNN projection
Minnesota — — — — — — CNN projection
Mississippi — — — — — — Consensus projection
Missouri — — — — — — NBC projections
Montana 230,410 214,581 — — — — CNN projection
Nebraska — — — — — — ABC, NBC projections
Nevada — — — — — — CNN projection
New Hampshire 23,606 36,245 313 161 — — CNN, FOX News projections
New Jersey 1,538,946 2,969,640 20,243 8,007 — — CNN projection
New Mexico — — — — — — ABC, NBC projections
New York — — — — — — CNN projection
North Carolina 1,236,606 1,340,525 — 14,655 — —
North Dakota 5,807 4,331 — — — — Consensus projection
Ohio 595,124 764,076 2,136 982 580 — CNN, Fox News projection
Oklahoma — — — — — — CNN projection
Oregon — — — — — — CNN projection
Pennsylvania 276,797 568,423 5,649 2,354 — — Consensus projection
Rhode Island — — — — — — CNN projection
South Carolina 30,061 28,868 — 199 150 116 CNN, NBC projections
South Dakota — — — — — — ABC, NBC projections
Tennessee 165,442 94,544 1,230 768 682 — CNN projection
Texas 2,697,294 2,333,596 — 10,100 — — Consensus projection
Utah — — — — — — CNN projection
Vermont 4,384 7,572 132 36 27 2 CNN, FOX News projections
Virginia 1,412,695 1,443,214 9,290 8,571 6,290 1,955 86.37% Reporting[86], CNN projection
Washington — — — — — — CNN projection
West Virginia 40,113 39,913 110 — 26 38 CBS, FOX News projections
Wisconsin — — — — — — CNN projection
Wyoming — — — — — — CNN projection

Electoral College[87]

Projections based on television network coverage. Notes identify networks of projection. Bold indicates actual vote count leader.

Cartogram of electoral vote projection (based on popular vote) with each square representing one vote.
State McCain Obama Others/Notes
Alabama 9 0
Alaska 3 0 -
Arizona 10 0 -
Arkansas 6 0 ABC, NBC projections
California 0 55 -
Colorado 0 9
Connecticut 0 7 CNN projection
Delaware 0 3 CNN projection
D.C. 0 3 CNN projection
Florida 0 27
Georgia 15 0 CNN projection
Hawaii 0 4
Idaho 4 0
Illinois 0 21 CNN projection
Indiana 0 11
Iowa 0 7 CNN projection
Kansas 6 0 NBC, ABC projections
Kentucky 8 0 CNN, FOX News projections
Louisiana 9 0 ABC, NBC projections
Maine 0 2 CNN projection
Maine congressional districts 0 2 -
Maryland 0 10 CNN projection
Massachusetts 0 12 CNN projection
Michigan 0 17 CNN projection
Minnesota 0 10 CNN projection
Mississippi 6 0
Missouri 11 0 -
Montana 3 0 CNN projection
Nebraska 2 0 -
Nebraska congressional districts 3 0 Nebraska Secretary of State Election Results
Nevada 0 5 -
New Hampshire 0 4 CNN, FOX News projections
New Jersey 0 15 CNN projection
New Mexico 0 5 ABC, NBC projections
New York 0 31 CNN projection
North Carolina - -
North Dakota 3 0 Consensus projection
Ohio 0 20 CNN, Fox News projection
Oklahoma 7 0 CNN projection
Oregon 0 7 CNN projection
Pennsylvania 0 21 Consensus projection
Rhode Island 0 4 CNN projection
South Carolina 8 0 CNN, NBC projections
South Dakota 3 0
Tennessee 11 0 CNN projection
Texas 34 0 Consensus projection
Utah 5 0 CNN projection
Vermont 0 3 CNN, FOX News projections
Virginia 0 13 [86]
Washington 0 11 -
West Virginia 5 0 CBS, FOX News projections
Wisconsin 0 10 CNN projection
Wyoming 3 0 CNN projection

Ballot access

The following table lists the number of states in which a candidate appears on the official ballot.[citation needed]

Presidential Ticket Party Ballot Access
McCain / Palin Republican 50
Obama / Biden Democrat 50
Nader / Gonzalez Independent 46
Barr / Root Libertarian 45
Baldwin / Castle Constitution 37
McKinney / Clemente Green 32

Swing states

Further information: Swing state
Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, as of 2008-10-31.[88]
  >10% McCain lead
  6%–10% McCain lead
  1%–5% McCain lead
  Tie
  1%–5% Obama lead
  6%–10% Obama lead
  >10% Obama lead

Political experts and polling had identified certain swing states where close votes might prove crucial to the outcome of the election.[89] The states that were thought most likely to alter the outcome of a close election are located in and around the southern Mountain States, the Great Lakes states and Florida.[90]

Swing states included (electoral college votes plus winning party in parentheses):

  • Arizona (10, R) Taking political observers by surprise, John McCain's home state became competitive. With one exception (1996), the state hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1948. In late October, polls indicated McCain's once commanding lead had shrunk and the state was considered a "toss up."[91] Obama began running television commercials in the state while McCain began usage of anti-Obama robocalls there.[92][93] The most recent polls showed McCain with a small lead in Arizona.[94]
  • Colorado (9, D) The Centennial State held its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American, to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006; and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats. This prompted DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim the West held the key to victory in 2008, which effectively led to Denver being the location of the Convention. A strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention brought to bear on such issues as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. Polls had shown Obama with a modest lead.[95]
  • Florida (27, D) The key player in 2000, whose votes went narrowly to George W. Bush, making him the winner. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly was seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security - two key components of winning the elderly vote - while Republicans have an advantage with their stance on tax cuts and values issues. For Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban American attention made it a strong contender. Just before the election, an average of polls suggested Obama had a small lead in Florida.[96]
  • Georgia (15, R) Georgia had previously been considered a "safe" Republican state for Presidential candidates. From 1984 through 2004, it supported the Republican candidate with only one exception, 1992. Polls showed McCain holding a solid lead in the state until mid-October when Obama closed the lead to under 5 percentage points.[97]
  • Indiana (11, D) The state had not voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.[98] A poll by The Indianapolis Star showed the Iraq War and the sluggish economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. In 2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Different polls showed each party with a small lead in the state.[99][100] George Stefanopoulos on ABC News pointed out that all of the major college towns supported Obama; in 2004, only Bloomington/Indiana University had supported Kerry.[101]
  • Missouri (11, ?) The Show Me State had long been dubbed the bellwether for the nation because historically it has correlated very closely with the national Zeitgeist – with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has supported the winner of every Presidential election since 1904. The home state of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, and granted its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes such as stem cell research and universal health care. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Democrat Claire McCaskill. Moreover, the national mood souring over the Iraq war and a contentious gubernatorial election with a Democratic favorite in Jay Nixon made this state a strong possibility for the Democrats. Different polls showed each party with a small lead in Missouri.[102]
  • Montana (3, R) The Treasure State had supported the Republican presidential candidate in all but one election (1992) since Lyndon Johnson took the state in 1964. While polls in September showed McCain with a double digit lead, on election day an average of the four most recent polls showed that lead had been reduced.[103]
  • Nevada (5, D) Although Nevada had historically leaned Republican, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic and Latino Americans made it a potential swing state. Its 2006 gubernatorial election was particularly competitive: Republican Jim Gibbons won only by a slim margin. The Las Vegas metropolitan area with its dramatic increase in population has become an attractive destination for Democratic campaign resources, and Democrats were buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings - as of June 2008 - of Gibbons and Bush.[104] Furthermore, Nevada has been won by the victor of every presidential election since 1912, with the single exception of 1976, this makes it the second bellwether state, after Missouri. Polls showed Obama with a moderate lead in Nevada.[105]
  • North Carolina (15, ?) North Carolina had been considered a "safe" Republican state for decades. Before 2008, it last supported a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. However, concern over the economy resulted in a political shift for the 2008 election.[106] Recent polls show Obama with a small lead.[107] The additional presence of very competitive races for a U.S. Senate seat and the governor's mansion, featuring a Republican incumbent and an outgoing Democrat, respectively, added to the competitive environment in North Carolina in 2008.
  • North Dakota (3, R) North Dakota had voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since Lyndon Johnson won it in 1964. Despite McCain showing a solid lead in the polls in September and the Obama campaign having pulled staffers out of the state, two polls just before the election either showed the race a dead heat or Obama with a slight lead.[108][109]
  • Ohio (20, D) Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's re-election in 2004, and their tally was close enough to be contested. In 2006, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. The Republicans have never won the presidency without winning Ohio. Polls showed Obama with a modest lead in Ohio.[110]
  • Virginia (13, D) No Democratic presidential candidate had won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's winning the Governor's Mansion in 2005, Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen, and in 2007 when the Democrats reached a majority in the State Senate election. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state also is part of the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area the second highest income metropolitan area in the country, tends to lean Democratic. Unique political timing could also have played a part in Virginia in 2008, as popular former governor and Democrat Mark Warner is running for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner (no relation). His popularity could have been a significant asset to Obama in Virginia. Polls showed Obama with a moderate lead in Virginia.[111]

Earlier in the election season, the field of swing states was larger, and included Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, West Virginia and Wisconsin. All but one of these are now "leaning Obama" while West Virginia is now "leaning McCain". All are no longer considered to be in play.

The swing states listed above totaled 142 electoral votes; some may become "safe" for one party as the election progresses. Of the states that are not currently competitive, 132 electoral votes (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming) are likely to go to the Republican party, while 264 (California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin) are expected to go to the Democrats. Maine and Nebraska have rules which allow a split in their electoral votes depending on results in congressional districts. McCain was targeting Maine's 2nd congressional district in an effort to gain at least one of Maine's four electoral votes,[112] and Obama was targeting Nebraska's 2nd congressional district.[113]

International reaction

Main article: International reaction to the 2008 United States presidential election

The rest of the world had followed the American presidential election very closely. When it was clear that Obama was victorious, many world leaders, following normal protocol, sent congratulations and well-wishes to the President-elect.

Opinion polling

See also

Wikimedia Commons has media related to United States presidential election, 2008.

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Campaign contributions

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