2010 United States House of Representatives elections
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All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 5 (of the 6) non-voting members | ||||||||||||||||
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 The current congressional districts for the 112th Congress | ||||||||||||||||
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For complete list of the races in all districts, but without commentary, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2010 - complete list.
The 2010 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 2, 2010 in the middle of President Barack Obama's first term in office. Contests will be held for all 435 seats representing the 50 United States. Additionally, elections will be held for the delegates from the District of Columbia and four of the five U.S. territories. The only seat in the House not up for election is that of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, who serves a four-year term and will next face election in 2012. However the seats for the House could change pending the passage of the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 (H.R. 157 and S. 160) in the United States House of Representatives. On February 26, 2009, the U.S. Senate passed S. 160 by a vote of 61-37.[1]
The winners of this election cycle will serve in the 112th Congress.
Background
Following the 2006 U.S. House Elections, the Democrats retook control of the U.S. House as well as the U.S. Senate. In the 2008 elections, which coincided with Democrat Barack Obama's victory over Republican John McCain for the Presidency, Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers. Of the 435 Congressional districts, 242 were carried by Obama, while 193 voted for McCain. Of the district's Obama won, 34 elected a Republican to the House, while 49 of the districts McCain won elected a Democrat. [2]
The Republicans are hoping to win back many of the swing districts they lost in the two previous elections. [3]
Recently, both parties have been tied or had small leads in polls of voters Generic Congressional Ballots.[4]
Retiring Incumbents
Thirteen U.S. Representatives so far are voluntarily retiring from the U.S. House at the end of their current term or 2010.
Democratic Incumbents
- Alabama's 7th congressional district: Artur Davis: To run for Governor of Alabama. [5]
- Florida's 17th congressional district: Kendrick Meek: To run for the U.S. Senate. [6]
- Hawaii's 1st congressional district: Neil Abercrombie: To run for Governor of Hawaii. [7]
- New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district: Paul Hodes: To run for the U.S. Senate. [8]
Republican Incumbents
- Florida's 12th congressional district: Adam Putnam: To run for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture. [9]
- Georgia's 9th congressional district: Nathan Deal: To run for run for Governor of Georgia. [10]
- Kansas's 1st congressional district: Jerry Moran: To run for the U.S. Senate. [11]
- Kansas's 4th congressional district: Todd Tiahrt: To run for the U.S. Senate. [12]
- Michigan's 2nd congressional district: Pete Hoekstra: To run for Governor of Michigan. [13]
- Missouri's 7th congressional district: Roy Blunt: To run for the U.S. Senate. [14]
- Oklahoma's 5th congressional district: Mary Fallin: To run for Governor of Oklahoma. [15]
- South Carolina's 3rd congressional district: Gresham Barrett: To run for Governor of South Carolina. [16]
- Tennessee's 3rd congressional district: Zach Wamp: To run for Governor of Tennessee. [17]
Predictions
Race ratings
The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included are currently considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)
| District | Incumbent | Cook[18] | Rothenberg[19] |
|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | Bright (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D |
| AL-3 | Rogers (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| AL-5 | Griffith (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| AK-AL | Young (R) | Likely R | R Favored |
| AZ-1 | Kirkpatrick (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| AZ-3 | Shadegg (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| AZ-5 | Mitchell (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| AZ-8 | Giffords (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| CA-3 | Lungren (R) | Leans R | R Favored |
| CA-4 | McClintock (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| CA-11 | McNerney (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| CA-26 | Dreier (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| CA-44 | Calvert (R) | Leans R | R Favored |
| CA-45 | Bono Mack (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| CA-46 | Rohrabacher (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| CA-48 | Campbell (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| CA-50 | Bilbray (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| CO-3 | Salazar (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| CO-4 | Markey (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| CT-4 | Himes (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| DE-AL | Castle (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| FL-8 | Grayson (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| FL-10 | Young (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| FL-12 | (Putnam) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| FL-13 | Buchanan (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| FL-16 | Rooney (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| FL-22 | Klein (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| FL-24 | Kosmas (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| FL-25 | Diaz-Balart (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| GA-8 | Marshall (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| GA-12 | Barrow (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| HI-1 | (Abercrombie) (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| ID-1 | Minnick (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D |
| IL-6 | Roskam (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| IL-10 | Kirk (R) | Leans R | Limited Risk |
| IL-11 | Halvorson (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| IL-13 | Biggert (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| IL-14 | Foster (D) | Leans D | Limited Risk |
| IN-2 | Donnelly (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| IN-3 | Souder (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| IN-9 | Hill (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| IA-2 | Loebsack (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| IA-3 | Boswell (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| IA-4 | Latham (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| KS-3 | Moore (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| LA-2 | Cao (R) | Tossup | Leans D |
| LA-3 | Melancon (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| LA-4 | Fleming (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| LA-6 | Cassidy (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| MD-1 | Kratovil (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D |
| MI-7 | Schauer (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| MI-9 | Peters (D) | Leans D | Limited Risk |
| MI-11 | McCotter (R) | Leans R | Limited Risk |
| MN-3 | Paulsen (R) | Likely R | R Favored |
| MN-6 | Bachmann (R) | Likely R | R Favored |
| MS-1 | Childers (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D |
| MO-9 | Luetkemeyer (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| NE-2 | Terry (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| NV-2 | Heller (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| NV-3 | Titus (D) | Leans D | Limited Risk |
| NH-1 | Shea-Porter (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| NH-2 | (Hodes) (D) | Leans D | Pure Tossup |
| NJ-3 | Adler (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| NJ-7 | Lance (R) | Likely R | R Favored |
| NM-1 | Heinrich (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| NM-2 | Teague (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| NY-13 | McMahon (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| NY-19 | Hall (D) | Likely D | D Favored |
| NY-20 | Murphy (D) | Leans D | Pure Tossup |
| NY-24 | Arcuri (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| NY-25 | Maffei (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| NY-26 | Lee (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| NY-29 | Massa (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| NC-8 | Kissell (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| OH-1 | Driehaus (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| OH-2 | Schmidt (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| OH-12 | Tiberi (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| OH-15 | Kilroy (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| OH-16 | Boccieri (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| OH-18 | Space (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| OR-4 | DeFazio (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| OR-5 | Schrader (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| PA-3 | Dahlkemper (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| PA-4 | Altmire (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| PA-6 | Gerlach (R) | Leans R | R Favored |
| PA-10 | Carney (D) | Likely D | Leans D |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| PA-12 | Murtha(D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| PA-15 | Dent (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| PA-18 | Murphy (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| SC-1 | Brown (R) | Likely R | R Favored |
| TN-3 | (Wamp) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| TX-10 | McCaul (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| TX-17 | Edwards (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| VA-2 | Nye (D) | Leans D | D Favored |
| VA-5 | Perriello (D) | Leans D | Leans D |
| VA-10 | Wolf (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk |
| VA-11 | Connolly (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
| WA-8 | Reichert (R) | Leans R | Leans R |
| WI-8 | Kagen (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk |
Races by state
Template:Congress TOC states 1
See also: Swing District
Alabama
- Alabama's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Bobby Bright, the former Mayor of Montgomery, defeated Republican state Representative Jay Love by fewer than 1,800 votes in 2008. Bright is running for reelection, [20] while Love is considering a rematch. [21] Dr. Craig Schmidtke, who Love defeated in the Republican primary, is also considering running. Other potential Republican candidates include businesswoman Patricia Barnes, state Representatives Greg Wren, Steve Clouse and David Grimes, and perhaps former State Treasurer George Wallace Jr., who ran for but narrowly lost the seat in 1992 as a Democrat. [22] This southeastern Alabama district includes most of the city of Montgomery, as well as Troy and Dothan. John McCain won 63.42% of the vote here in 2008. [23] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+16).[24]
- Alabama's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent Mike D. Rogers defeated Democratic lawyer Josh Segall 53.4% to 46.6% in 2008, Rogers' closest victory since he was first elected in 2002. [25] Segall has announced that he will run again. [26] This eastern Alabama district includes part of Montgomery, as well as Phenix City, Auburn, Sylacauga, Talladega, Anniston, and Piedmont. McCain won 56% here in 2008. [27] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[24]
- Alabama's 7th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Artur Davis is running for Governor of Alabama.[28] Three Democrats have announced their candidacies: attorney Terri Sewell,[29] state Representatives Earl Hilliard, Jr., the son of the district's former congressman, Earl Hilliard,[30] and Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot. [31] Other Democrats considering a run include state Senators Bobby Singleton and Linda Coleman,[32] and Hank Sanders, [33] state Representative Merika Coleman,[34] and former Selma Mayor James Perkins. [35] The district, which includes the west central part of the state and includes Selma and Demopolis, as well as parts of the cities of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, gave Barack Obama 71% of the vote in 2008. [36] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+18).[24]
Alaska
- Alaska's at-large congressional district: Republican incumbent Don Young defeated Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell by 304 votes in the 2008 Republican primary. Parnell is considering running again: he may be aided by the fact that because of an ongoing federal investigation, Young has lost his status as ranking member on the House Natural Resources Committee. [37] The district includes the entire state of Alaska: McCain won 59% here in 2008. [38] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[24]
Arizona
- Arizona's 5th congressional district: In 2008, Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell defeated his Republican opponent, former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, 53% to 44%. Schweikert has filed paperwork in order to run again.[39] Other potential Republican candidates include former state Representative Susan Bitter Smith and businessman Jim Ward, who were both defeated in the 2008 primary by Schweikert, as well as Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman. [40] The district, which includes Scottsdale, Tempe, Fountain Hills, Tortilla Flat, and small parts of Phoenix and Mesa, gave McCain 52% of the vote in 2008. [41] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
Arkansas
- Arkansas's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Marion Berry may face a challenge from Republican businessman Rick Crawford, whose farm radio reports make him known throughout the district. Berry has always been reelected in this district by a wide margin since his first reelection campaign in 1998. [42] This northeastern Arkansas district includes Jonesboro and West Memphis. McCain won 59% here in 2008. [43] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+8).[24]
- Arkansas's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Vic Snyder has been the subject of retirement speculation [44] after he became a father to triplets, although Snyder has stated he will run again. However, retirement speculation could be further fueled by the fact Snyder raised no money in the first quarter of 2009. [45] This district, which consists of the center of state, including Little Rock, Jacksonville, Conway, and Morrilton, gave McCain 54% here in 2008. [46] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5). [24]
California
- California's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent Dan Lungren defeated his Democratic challenger physician Bill Durston 49% to 44%, a large drop from Lungren's 21 point victory over Durston in 2006. Durston is running for a third time and is receiving support from national Democrats.[47] Other potential Democratic candidates include Calaveras County supervisor Steve Wilensky, [48] and former state Treasurer and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides. [49] The district includes the Sacramento suburbs of Carmichael, Citrus Heights, Fair Oaks, and Elk Grove. In 2008, Obama narrowly won this district with 49.4% compared to 48.8% for McCain. [50] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- California's 4th congressional district: Freshman Republican Tom McClintock defeated Democratic retired military officer Charlie Brown 50.2% to 49.8%.[51] Brown, who was also defeated in 2006 46% to 49% against then-Republican incumbent John Doolittle, [52] is considering running again. [53] The district consists of northeastern California, including the cities of Roseville, Rocklin, and Auburn. McCain won 54% here in 2008.[54] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[24]
- California's 11th congressional district Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney may face a challenge from former state Assemblyman Guy Houston. [55] The district includes the inland East Bay suburbs of Danville, San Ramon, and Pleasanton, and the northern San Joaquin Valley. Obama won 54% here in 2008. [56] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[24]
- California's 26th congressional district Republican incumbent David Dreier defeated Democratic businessman Russ Warner with 52% of the vote in 2008 and at the presidential level gave Obama 51%,[24] a turnaround of eight percentage points from the 2004 election. Warner is running again. [57] This district includes Arcadia, Monrovia, Covina, Glendora, Pamona, and Montclair, . (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[24]
- California's 36th congressional district Democratic incumbent Jane Harman has become embroiled in a controversy where she allegedly agreed to help two former American Israel Public Affairs Committee officials accused of espionage. As a result, Harman may face a primary challenge from high school teacher Marcy Winograd, who challenged her in 2006 and won 38% of the vote.[58] This southwest Los Angeles County district includes Manhattan Beach, Torrance, Redondo Beach, and parts of the city of Los Angeles, including San Pedro and Venice. [59] Obama won 64% here in 2008. [60] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+12).[24]
- California's 44th congressional district: Republican incumbent Ken Calvert defeated Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick by a slim 51% to 49% margin in 2008, despite Hedrick's being heavily outspent. Hedrick has announced he will seek a rematch; Calvert has not yet announced his reelection intentions.[61] This district, which includes Riverside, Norco, and Corona, was close in 2008: Obama won 49.5% of the vote to McCain's 48.6%. [62] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- California's 45th congressional district: Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack is facing a challenge from Democratic Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet. [63] The district includes the cities of Moreno Valley, Hemet, Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage, and Indio. Obama won 52% here in 2008. [64] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[24]
- California's 47th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez is considering running for governor. [65] Republican Assemblyman Van Tran is a potential candidate whether or not Sanchez runs. [66] The district includes the cities of Santa Ana, Garden Grove, and most of Anaheim. Obama won 60% here in 2008. [67] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[24]
- California's 48th congressional district: Republican incumbent John B. T. Campbell III is facing a challenge from former Irvine Mayor and current city council member Beth Krom, who has announced she will run as a Democrat.[68] The district is located in southern Orange County and includes the cities of Tustin, Irvine, Laguna Niguel, and Newport Beach. Obama defeated McCain 49.3% to 48.6% here in 2008. [69] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- California's 50th congressional district: Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray is facing a challenge from two Democrats: attorney Tracy Emblem and former Cardiff School Board Trustee Francine Busby [70]; Bilbray defeated Busby 53% to 43.5% in 2006.[71] Bilbray is expected to be targeted for defeat by national Democrats. [72] The district includes northern San Diego, Solana Beach, Encinitas, Escondido, San Marcos, and Carlsbad. Obama won 51% here in 2008.[73] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[24]
Colorado
- Colorado's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent John Salazar is facing a challenge from Republican District Attorney Martin Beeson, whose judicial district includes Rio Blanco, Garfield and Pitkin counties.[74] The district includes the Colorado Western Slope as well as Pueblo. McCain won 50% here in 2008. [75] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
- Colorado's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey is likely to face a spirited Republican challenge in 2010.[76] Republican University of Colorado Regent Tom Lucero has filed to run.[77] Fort Collins City Councilman Diggs Brown,[78] State Representative Cory Gardner, state Senator Greg Brophy, former state Senate Majority Leader Mark Hillman, [79], Weld County Commissioner Bill Jerke, [80] and former state Senator and current Larimer County Commissioner Steve Johnson [81] are potential Republican candidates. The district includes the cities of Fort Collins, Loveland, Greeley, Fort Morgan, and Lamar. McCain won 50% of the vote here in 2008. [82] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- Colorado's 6th congressional district: First term Republican incumbent Mike Coffman will face a challenge from Attorney David Canter who started his bid for the seat the day after the 2008 elections. [83] This district includes the cities of Littleton, Centennial, Castle Rock, and parts of Aurora in central Colorado. McCain won 52% here in 2008. [84] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+8).[24]
Connecticut
- Connecticut's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Joe Courtney is facing a challenge from Republican Matthew Daly, a former board of finance member from Hebron, as well as corporate consultant Daria Novak.[85] Other potential Republican candidates are former state Representative Andrew Norton and 2008 nominee Sean Sullivan (who Courtney defeated 66%-32%). [86] This eastern Connecticut district includes Norwich, New London, and Storrs. Obama won 58% here in 2008. [87] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+6).[24]
- Connecticut's 4th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Jim Himes may face a challenge from Republican state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney, the son of former Congressman Stewart McKinney. Another potential Republican candidate is state Senate Deputy Minority Leader Rob Kane. [88] This southwestern Connecticut seat includes Bridgeport, Westport, Norwalk, and Stamford. Obama won 60% here in 2008. [89] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[24]
- Connecticut's 5th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy is facing a challenge from Republican Justin Bernier, the former executive director of the state’s Office of Military Affairs. [90] The district consists of northwestern Connecticut and includes the cities of New Britain, Danbury, and most of Waterbury. Obama won 56% here in 2008. [91] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[24]
Delaware
- Delaware's at-large congressional district: Republican incumbent Mike Castle is considering running for the United States Senate, running for reelection to his current House seat, or retiring. [92] Democratic former Lieutenant Governor John C. Carney, Jr. has announced his candidacy for this seat.[93] The district, which consists of the entire state of Delaware, gave Obama 62% of the vote in 2008. [94] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+7).[24]
District of Columbia
Florida
- Florida's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Allen Boyd will face a primary challenge from state Senate Democratic Leader Al Lawson.[95] The district, which includes most of Tallahassee as well as Panama City, gave McCain 54% of the vote in 2008. [96] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- Florida's 5th congressional district: Republican incumbent Ginny Brown-Waite is facing a challenge from Democratic army veteran Jim Piccillo, a former Republican. [97] The district includes Florida's northern west coast, consisting of Pasco and Hernando counties. McCain won 56% here in 2008. [98] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[24]
- Florida's 8th congressional district: Democrat Alan Grayson unseated incumbent Ric Keller in 2008 52% to 48%. Republican radio talk-show host Todd Long, who received 47% of the vote against Keller in the 2008 primary, is running again.[99] Other Republicans considering a run are state Senator Dan Webster, state Representative Steve Precourt, state Senate Majority Whip Andy Gardiner, and Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, though Crotty is facing a legal challenge.[100] This central Florida district includes most of Orlando as well as the suburbs of Conway and Ocoee. Obama won 52% of vote here in 2008. [101] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- Florida's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Bill Young is facing a challenge from Democratic state Senator Charlie Justice. [102] Since Young raised a meager $1,355 in the first quarter of 2009 [103] there is some speculation that he will retire. [104] While Young has not decided whether to run again, he has stated he is not planning to retire. [105] This district includes most of most of Pinellas County, including St. Petersburg, Pinellas Park, Seminole, and Largo. Obama won 52% here in 2008. [106] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[24]
- Florida's 12th congressional district: Republican incumbent Adam Putnam is vacating this seat in order to run for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture.[107] Republican former state Representative Dennis Ross is running for this seat[108], and other potential Republican candidates include Polk County State's Attorney Jerry Hill and state Senator Paula Dockery[109] On the Democratic side, Doug Tudor, a retired United States Navy chief,[110] and Polk County Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards are running.[111], and perhaps former state Senator Rick Dantzler, as well.[110] This district includes most of Polk County and southeastern Hillsborough County. John McCain won 50% of the vote here in 2008. [112] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- Florida's 13th congressional district: While Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan has announced his reelection to his house seat,[113] he is considering running for the United States Senate.[114] He has said his decision will come "down the road". This district includes Sarasota County and most of Manatee County: McCain won 52% of the vote here in 2008. [115] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- Florida's 17th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Kendrick Meek is running for the United States Senate.[116] The announced Democratic candidates are state Representative Phillip Brutus, state Senator Frederica Wilson, Miami Gardens city Councilman Andre Williams, Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson state Representative Yolly Roberson, and community activist Marleine Bastien. Potential Democratic candidates include state Representitive James Bush and Opa-Locka Mayor Joseph Kelley.[117] This district, which includes the north side of Miami as well as Opa-Locka, North Miami, Carol City, Miramar and the western portion of Hollywood, gave Barack Obama 87% of the vote in 2008. [118] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+34).[24]
- Florida's 22nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Ron Klein is considering running for the United States Senate.[119] Regardless of Klein's decision, Republican former military officer Allen West, who Klein defeated 55% to 45% in 2008,[120] will run again. [121] This coastal district, which includes most of Ft. Lauderdale along with Boca Raton, Coconut Creek, and Deerfield Park, gave Obama 52% of the vote in 2008. [122] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1)[24]
- Florida's 24th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Suzanne Kosmas may face a challenge from Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer. [123] This east central Florida district includes Orlando suburbs of Winter Springs and Winter Park, as well as part of the Space Coast, including Port Orange, Edgewater, and Titisville . McCain won 51% here in 2008. [124] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+4).[24]
Georgia
- Georgia's 9th congressional district: Republican incumbent Nathan Deal is retiring to run for governor.[10] Former state transportation board chairman Mike Evans is running to replace Deal. [125] Possible Republican replacements for Deal are talk radio host Martha Zoller, state Representatives Tom Graves and James Mills, state Senators Chip Pearson, David Ralston,[126] and Lee Hawkins, former state Senator Bill Stevens, and former 12th district Congressman and teacher Max Burns.[127] This Northern Georgian district includes Gainesville, La Fayette, and Dalton.[128] This is the fourth most Republican district in the country: McCain won 75% in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+28). [24]
- Georgia's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Paul Broun may run for the United States Senate. [129] This northeastern Georgia district includes Athens, Toccoa and part of Augusta. McCain won 62% here in 2008. [130] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+15).[24]
- Georgia's 12th congressional district: While Democrat John Barrow was reelected by a margin of 66% to 34% in 2008,[131], he faced a close race in 2006, being reelected a margin of less than 1%.[132] Republican orthopedic surgeon and retired United States Army Lieutenant Golonel Wayne Mosley has announced that he will challenge Barrow,[133] who has not announced his reelection intentions. Other potential Republican candidates include state Representatives Jon Burns and Bob Lane. [134] The district, which includes Statesboro, Vidalia, and Milledgeville, as well as most of the cities of Augusta and Savannah, gave Obama 54% of the vote in 2008. [135] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1).[24]
Hawaii
- Hawaii's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Neil Abercrombie is vacating this seat in order to run for governor. [136] Former second district Democratic Congressman Ed Case has announced his intention to run to replace Abercrombie. [137] Possible Democratic candidates are former state House Majority Leader Kirk Caldwell, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, and former state Representative Brian Schatz. [138] Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has announced his candidacy and has secured the backing of much of the state's Republican establishment, including governor Linda Lingle.[139] This district is based on the island of Oahu and includes Honolulu, Waipahu, and Pearl City. Obama won 70% of the district's vote in 2008, though in 2004 Republican George W. Bush was able to win 47% of the vote, [140] giving Republicans hope that they can win the district in 2010. [141] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+11).[24]
Idaho
- Idaho's 1st congressional district: Democrat Walt Minnick unseated Republican Bill Sali by a margin of 51% to 49% in 2008. Iraq War veteran Vaughn Ward is running for the seat and has the endorsement of Arizona senator John McCain. [142] Sali is considering running again;[143] other Republicans considering the race are state Senator John McGee, former state Controller Keith Johnson, state Attorney General Lawrence Wasden [144], state Representatives Raul Labrador and Ken Roberts, and state Treasurer Ron Crane.[145] The district, which includes the Panhandle, Moscow, Nampa, Caldwell, and part of Boise, gave McCain 62% of the vote in 2008. [146] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+18).[24]
Illinois
- Illinois's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Peter Roskam is considering running for the United States Senate.[147] This district includes Chicago's northwestern and western suburbs, including Wheaton, Glen Ellyn, Carol Stream, Elmhurst, and Elk Grove Village. This historically conservative holdout gave Obama 56% of the vote in 2008. [148] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[24]>
- Illinois's 7th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Danny K. Davis is considering running for the United States Senate. [149] The district includes Chicago's downtown and West Side, as well as some of the city's western suburbs, including Oak Park and Maywood. Obama won 88% here in 2008. [150] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+35).[24]
- Illinois's 9th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jan Schakowsky has stated she is "open" to running for the United States Senate.[151] If she does run for reelection she may face a primary challenge from Chicago alderman Joe Moore.[152] This affluent district, which includes Evanston, Skokie, and Chicago's North Side lakefront, gave Obama 72% of the vote in 2008. [153] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+20).[24]
- Illinois's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Mark Kirk is considering a run for the United States Senate. [154] Democratic state Senator Michael Bond has announced that he will run for this seat:[155] Democratic state Senator Susan Garrett is also considering running for this seat whether Kirk runs for reelection or not. [156] 2006 and 2008 nominee Dan Seals is a potential candidate if Kirk does not run for reelection. On the Republican side, candidates considering a run if Kirk retires are state Representative Beth Coulson, and state Senators Matt Murphy and Dan Duffy. [157] The affluent distict, which includes Chicago's northern and northwestern suburbs of Arlington Heights, Northbrook, Highland Park, North Chicago, and Waukegan, gave Obama 61% of the vote in 2008. [158] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+6) [24]
- Illinois's 11th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Debbie Halvorson has drawn two Republican challengers so far: real estate investor Henry W. Meers Jr., and Iraq War veteran Adam Kinzinger. [159] The district includes some of the exurbs south of Chicago including Joliet, Kankakee, and Ottawa, as well as part of Bloomington-Normal. Obama won 53% here in 2008. [160] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[24]
- Illinois's 14th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Bill Foster won a 2008 special election to succeed Republican Dennis Hastert, the former Speaker of the House. Foster, who held the seat as an incumbent in 2008, may face a challenge from Hastert's son, Ethan Hastert. [161] State Senator Chris Lauzen is another potential Republican candidate. [162]. This north central Illinois district includes Aurora, Elgin, DeKalb, and Dixon. Obama won 55% here in 2008. [163] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[24]
Indiana
- Indiana's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly may face a challenge from Mishawaka Mayor Jeff Rea, whom Republicans are hoping to recruit to run. [164] This north central Indiana district includes South Bend and Michigan City, as well as parts of Elkhart and Kokomo. Obama won 54% here in 2008. [165] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- Indiana's 5th congressional district: Republican incumbent Dan Burton defeated former Marion County Coronor John McGoff in the Republican primary by 52% to 45% in 2008, leading some to consider him vulnerable to a primary challenge. As result, Burton is increasing his fundraising and announced he will run for reelection. [166] Former Republican congressional candidate Brose McVey has formally announced a campaign for the seat, as has state Republican Party executive director Luke Messer. [166] Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi will run if Burton changes his mind and retires. [166] Other potential Republicans considering the race are state Representitive Mike Murphy, and McGoff. [166] The east-central Indiana district, which includes some of the suburbs of Indianapolis, as well as part of the city itself, gave McCain 59% of the vote in 2008. [167] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[24]
Iowa
- Iowa's 5th congressional district: Republican incumbent Steve King is considering a run for the governorship.[168] This western Iowa district, which includes Sioux City and Council Bluffs, gave McCain 55% of the vote in 2008. [169] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[24]
Kansas
- Kansas's 1st congressional district: Republican incumbent Jerry Moran has announced that he will run for Sam Brownback's open United States Senate seat, thus vacating his House seat.[170] Five Republicans have entered the race: state Senator Tim Huelskamp, former Brownback chief-of-staff Rob Wasinger, Timothy Barker, chief executive officer of Orion Ethanol, college instructor Sue Boldra, and Tracey Mann, a Johnson County resident. [171] The district, which encompasses western Kansas and includes Salina, Hutchinson, and Dodge City, gave McCain 69% of the vote in 2008. [172] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+23).[24]
- Kansas's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Dennis Moore is beginning to plan for a run for his seventh term.[173] The district includes Kansas City, Overland Park, and some of Lawrence: Obama won 51% of the vote here in 2008. [174] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[24]
- Kansas's 4th congressional district: Republican incumbent Todd Tiahrt has announced that he will run for Kansas's open United States Senate seat.[175] Republican state Senator Dick Kelsey and Republican National Committeeman Mike Pompeo have announced they will run for the seat. [176] Retired court service officer Robert Tillman will run as a Democrat. [176] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senate Majority Leader Derek Schmidt,[177], state Senators Susan Wagle and Carolyn McGinn, state Representative Steve Brunk,[178], Wichita City Councilwoman Susan Schlapp, and Schlapp's son Matt Sclapp, George W. Bush's former director of political affairs.[179] Democratic state Representitive Raj Goyle, who was elected in a solidly Republican district in 2006, is considering a run as well.[180] The district, which encompasses south centrel Kansas including Wichita, Newton, and Arkansas City, gave John McCain 58% of the vote in 2008. [181] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14) [24]
Kentucky
Louisiana
- Louisiana's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Republican Anh “Joseph” Cao defeated indicted Democratic incumbent William Jefferson in 2008 in an upset.[182] Democratic state Representative Cedric Richmond, who unsuccessfully ran against Jefferson in the Democratic primary in 2008, has entered the race.[183] Democratic state Senator Cheryl Gray may also run.[184] This urban New Orleans based district gave Obama 75% in 2008. [185] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+25).[24]
Maine
- Maine's 2nd congressional district Four term Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Mike Michaud is considering running for governor. [186] This district is the largest in the Northeast and encompasses the northern and western parts of the state including the cities of Lewiston, Bangor, and Presque Isle. Obama won 55% of the vote here in 2008. [187] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[24]
Maryland
- Maryland's 1st congressional district: Freshman Democrat Frank Kratovil defeated Republican state Senator Andy Harris by a margin of 49% to 48% in 2008.[188] Harris will seek a rematch.[189] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator EJ Pipkin, who Harris defeated in the 2008 Republican primary,[190] , Anne Arundel County Executive John R. Leopold, and state Delegate Jeannie Haddaway-Riccio. [191] [192] The district, which consists of Maryland's Eastern Shore as well as part of Anne Arundel County, gave McCain 58% of the vote in 2008. [193] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[24]
Massachusetts
Michigan
- Michigan's 2nd congressional district: Republican Peter Hoekstra announced he will retire in order to run for governor.[194] Republican state Representative Bill Huizenga has announced his bid.[195] Republican state Senator Wayne Kuipers is seriously considering a bid,[196], as is former pro-football player Jay Riemersma [197]. Author, teacher, and activist Bob Wood has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.[198] This western Michigan district includes the cities of Muskegon, Holland, and Ludington. McCain won 51% of the vote here in 2008. [199] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7).[24]
- Michigan's 7th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Mark Schauer unseated Republican Tim Walberg 48.6% to 46.5% in 2008. [200] Walberg hasn't ruled out seeking a rematch, but has drawn little support so far. Other Republicans mentioned as possible candidates include Jackson County Prosecutor Hank Zavislak and Adrian College President Jeff Docking. [201] This south central Michigan district includes Battle Creek and Jackson.[202] Obama won 52% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- Michigan's 9th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Gary Peters unseated eight-term Republican Joe Knollenberg by a 52% to 43% margin in 2008. Peters is facing a challenge from Paul Welday, a former Knollenberg Chief of Staff and a former leader of the Oakland County Republican Party. [203] This suburban Detroit district includes eastern Oakland County, including Rochester Hills, Troy, Royal Oak, Pontiac, Waterford, and Farmington Hills. Obama won 56% here in 2008. [204] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[24]
- Michigan's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Candice Miller is a potential candidate for governor.[205] This southeastern Michigan district includes northern Macomb County, Port Huron, and most of the Michigan "Thumb". McCain won 50% here in 2008. [206] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
- Michigan's 11th congressional district In 2008, incumbent Republican Thad McCotter was reelected by only 51% to 45% against an underfunded challenger. National Democrats are seeking to target McCotter [207]: possible candidates include state Representatives Richard LeBlanc and Marc Corriveau. [208] This suburban Detroit district includes Livonia, Westland, Milford, and Novi. Obama won 54% here in 2008. [209] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[24]
- Michigan's 12th congressional district Fourteen-term Democratic incumbent Sander Levin is facing a primary challenge from state Senator Mickey Switalski. [210] This district is based in the inner Detroit suburbs, including Warren, Clinton, Eastpointe, and Southfield. Obama won 65% of the vote here in 2008. [211] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+12).[24]
- Michigan's 13th congressional district Democratic congresswomen Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of convicted felony and former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, defeated former state Representitive Mary Waters and state Senator Martha Scott in the 2008 Democratic primary 39% to 35% to 25%, respectively.[212] Waters is planning a rematch, and Scott is considering it. [213] The district includes much of Detroit , as well as the suburbs of Lincoln Park and Wyandotte. Obama won 85% here in 2008. [214] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+31).[24]
Minnesota
- Minnesota's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann defeated her Democratic opponent, former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg, 46.4% to 43.4% in 2008. [215] Bachmann has made a number of controversial comments, including calling "on Minnesotans to become 'armed and dangerous' in resisting President Obama’s energy policies," leading Democrats to target her for defeat. Tinklenberg is considering a rematch; another potential Democratic candidate is state Senator Tarryl Clark. [216] The district includes the northern and eastern suburbs of the Twin Cities, including Stillwater, Hugo, Andover, and Elk River, as well as St. Cloud. McCain won 53% here in 2008. [217] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7) [24]
Mississippi
- Mississippi's 1st congressional district: Democrat Travis Childers will seek reelection.[218] After being elected to a vacant seat in a 2008 special election, Childers won a full term in 2008 with 54% of the vote. Potential Republican candidates include state Senators Alan Nunnelee and Merle Flowers. [219] This Northern Mississippi district includes the cities of Tupelo, Southaven, and Columbus. McCain won 62% of the vote here in 2008. [220] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14).[24]
Missouri
- Missouri's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Lacy Clay is considering vacating this seat in order to run for the state's open United States Senate seat.[221] The district includes the northern part of the city of St. Louis as well as the northeastern part of St. Louis County, including University City, Maryland Heights, and Ferguson. Obama won 80% here in 2008. [222] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+27).[24]
- Missouri's 7th congressional district: Republican incumbent Roy Blunt is running for the United States Senate.[223] In the Republican primary state Senator Jack Goodman has announced he will run as will autioneer Billy Long[224] and U.S. Navy reservist Jeff Wisdom. [225] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Gary Nodler, former state Representitive B.J. Marsh, Jasper County Republican Party chairman John Putnam, Nixa Alderman Kevin Elmer, and state Representitive Bryan Stevenson. [224] This southwestern Missouri district includes Springfield and Joplin. McCain won 63% here in 2008. [226] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[24]
Montana
- Montana's at-large congressional district Republican incumbent Denny Rehberg has won every election since 2000 with more than 55% of the vote. However, in 2008, Democrat Barack Obama lost to John McCain by only 2% compared to John Kerry's 20% loss in 2004. Democratic Attorney Tyler Gernant and Montana Democratic Party chairman Dennis McDonald have announced their intentions to challenge each other in the primary. [227] This district includes the entire state of Montana. McCain won 50% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7) [24]
Nebraska
Nevada
- Nevada's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Dean Heller has announced he is running for reelection, although he has not ruled out running for Governor or the United States Senate. [228] Democrat Cindy Trigg, the Douglas County School Board President, has announced her candidacy. [229] This district includes Reno, Sparks, Carson City, and the "Cow Counties". McCain won 49% here in 2008. [230] (Cook Partisan Voting Index: R+5) [24]
New Hampshire
- New Hampshire's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter will seek reelection. [231] She is expected to be targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee and the district has been noted as one of the best chances for a Republican pick up in New England in 2010. [232] Republican Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta is running for this seat; [233] other possible Republican candidates include Robert Bestani, a Newmarket businessman, state Representative Will Infantine,[234] Republican National Committeeman Sean Mahoney, and 2008 candidate John Stephen, the state's former Health Commissioner. The district consists of the eastern half of New Hampshire including the cities of Manchester, Rochester, Portsmouth, Laconia, Derry, and Dover. Obama won 53% of the vote in this district in 2008. [235] (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[24]
- New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Paul Hodes is vacating this seat to run for the United States Senate.[236] On the Democratic side, party activist and 2002 nominee Katrina Swett will run for this seat.[237] Other Democrats considering running are Executive Councilor Debora Pignatelli and her husband, lawyer Michael Pignatelli. Other possible Democratic candidates are state Senate President Sylvia Larsen, former state Senator and 2002 gubernatorial nominee Mark Fernald, lawyer and party activist Ann McLane Kuster,[238] state Representative John DeJoie, lawyer Michael Atkins,[239] and party activists Gary and Meg Hirshberg.[240] The Republican side includes the high probability that radio host Jennifer Horn, Hodes' 2008 opponent, will run again for the seat who recently said that she is "absolutely very seriously considering a run." [241]. Others include Republican state Representitive Jim Lawrence [242], state Senator Bob Clegg, who Horn defeated in the 2008 primary, former Congressman Charlie Bass[243], who Hodes unseated in 2006, and former Milford selectman Len Mannino [244] are all considering running. Other possible Republican candidates are state Senator Robert Odell, former state Senator Bruce Keough, and 2008 candidate Grant Bosse.[245] The district consists of the western half of New Hampshire including the cities of Nashua, Concord, Keene, Claremont, and Lebanon. Obama won 56% of the vote here in 2008. [246] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[24]
New Jersey
- New Jersey's 3rd congressional district: Freshman Democrat John Adler will face a challenge from Republican Justin M. Murphy, a former Tabernacle committeeman.[247] Murphy was a contender in the 2008 Republican primary for this seat, finishing third behind Chris Myers and John P. Kelly. Adler has not announced his reelection intentions, but Republicans are expected to heavily target this seat in 2010.[248] Currently, Adler is one of eleven Democrats being targeted by the National Republican Congressional Committee.[249] This south centrel New Jersey district includes Cherry Hill and Toms River. [250] Obama won 52% of the vote here in 2008, but in 2010, a non-presidential election year, turnout among Republican-leaning voters might be comparatively higher than in 2008.[251] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[24]
- New Jersey's 12th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Rush Holt may face a challenge from Republican Fair Haven Mayor Mike Halfacre. Halfacre has filled paperwork for a possible campaign. [252] This central New Jersey district includes part of Trenton as well as East Brunswick and Princeton. Obama won 58% here in 2008. [253] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[24]
New Mexico
- New Mexico's 1st congressional district: Freshman Democrat Martin Heinrich may face a challenge from Kevin Daniels, an owner of a chain of funeral homes who can self finance his own campaigns. [254] This district consists of the central area of New Mexico including Albuquerque. Obama won 60% in 2008.[255] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+5).[24]
- New Mexico's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Harry Teague might be challenged by Republican Steve Pearce, who held this seat until 2008, when he ran for the United States Senate.[256] The district consists of southern New Mexico including Silver City, Las Cruces, Roswell, and the Little Texas region. McCain won 50% of the vote here in 2008. [257] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
New York
- New York's 2nd congressional district: Democratic Congressman Steve Israel a potential primary challenger to appointed United States Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the special election for the U.S. Senate in 2010.[258] This Long Island distinct includes Huntington, Brentwood, and Commack. Obama won 56% here in 2008. [259] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[24]
- New York's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent Peter T. King is considering vacating his seat in order to run for the United States Senate.[260] This Long Island district includes Levittown, Hicksville, and Long Beach. McCain won 52% here in 2008. [261] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+4).[24]
- New York's 4th congressional district: Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy announced she will consider challenging appointed United States Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the special election for the U.S. Senate in 2010.[262] This Long Island district consists of the southwesternportion of Nassau County, including Hempstead. Obama won 58% here in 2008. [263] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+6).[24]
- New York's 14th congressional district: Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn B. Maloney has stated she is considering challenging appointed United States Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in the special election for the U.S. Senate in 2010.[264] This district includes Manhattan's East Side as well as western Queens. Obama won 78% of the vote here in 2008. [265] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+26).[24]
- New York's 19th congressional district: Democratic incumbent John Hall is facing a challenge from Republican state Assemblyman Greg Ball. [266] This Hudson Valley district includes Peekskill and West Point. Obama won 51% here in 2008. [267] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+3).[24]
- New York's 20th congressional district: Democratic venture capitalist Scott Murphy won a March 2009 special election for this seat, defeating then- state Assembly Republican leader Jim Tedisco by approximately 400 votes. Some New York Republican leaders are encouraging Tescido to run again in 2010; [268] other potential Republican candidates include 2006 Gubernatorial nominee John Faso and former New York Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell,[269] who was defeated here by then Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand 38% to 62% in 2008. [270] This Upstate New York district includes Hudson, Saratoga Springs, and Glens Falls. [271] Obama won 51% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- New York's 24th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Mike Arcuri won by a closer than expected margin over Republican challenger Richard Hanna in 2008, winning 52% to 48%.[272] Republicans are trying to recruit Hanna for a rematch.[273] This Upstate New York district includes Utica, Auburn, and Rome. Obama won 50% here in 2008. [274] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- New York's 29th congressional district: Democrat Eric Massa has indicated that he will run for re-election and is maintaining his campaign fund.[275] The district, prior to Massa's election in 2008, had been held by Republicans since 1987. Possible Republican candidates include state Assemblyman Tom O’Mara, Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks, state Senators Catharine Young and George Winner,[276] Chemung County Executive Tom Santulli, Corning Mayor Tom Reed, and attorney Bill Nojay. [277] This Southern Tier based district includes Elmira, Corning, Olean, and suburban Rochester; the district gave McCain 50% of the vote in 2008. [278] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
North Carolina
- North Carolina's 7th congressional district: While Democrat Mike McIntyre has announced he is running for reelection, he is leaving the door ajar for a possible US Senate run. [279] This district is located in the southeastern part of North Carolina and includes the cities of Fayetteville, Lumberton, Whiteville, Rocky Point, and Wilmington. McCain won 52% here in 2008. [280] Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
- North Carolina's 8th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Larry Kissell unseated Republican incumbent Robin Hayes by a 55% to 45% margin in 2008, after having lost to Hayes by 329 votes in 2006. Union County District Attorney John Snyder is a possible Republican candidate. Hayes is also considering running again; Snyder has said he would not run if Hayes does. [281] The district includes much of south centrel North Carolina including the cities of Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Albemarle, Concord, Kannapolis, and parts of Charlotte. Obama won 52% here in 2008. [282] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- North Carolina's 11th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Heath Shuler has begun raising money for reelection, and local Republicans are attempting to recruit a strong challenger. Potential Republican candidates include Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman, 2008 candidate Spence Campbell, former Henderson County Sheriff George Erwin ,and former state Representative Charles Thomas. [283] This Western North Carolina district includes Ashville, Hendersonville, Brevard, and Waynesville .[284] McCain won 52% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
North Dakota
Ohio
- Ohio's 1st congressional district: Democrat Steve Driehaus unseated Republican Steve Chabot in 2008, winning by a margin of 52.5% to 47.5%. Chabot announced he will seek a rematch.[285] The district includes western Cincinnati as well as some of the city's suburbs. Obama won 55% of the vote here in 2008. [286] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+1).[24]
- Ohio's 2nd congressional district: In 2008, Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt defeated Democrat Victoria Wells Wulsin 45% to 37%, with independent candidate David Krikorian receiving 18% of the vote. [287] Krikorian has announced that he will run again as a Democrat.[288] This district includes eastern Cincinnati and some of the city's suburbs as well as Portsmouth. McCain won 59% of the vote here in 2008. [289] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[24]
- Ohio's 8th congressional district: Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner may face a primary challenge from Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones.[290] This southwest Ohio district includes Hamilton, most of Middletown, and part of Dayton. [291] McCain won 61% of the vote here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+14).[24]
- Ohio's 18th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Zack Space may run for the United States Senate.[292] Potential Republican candidates include state Senators Jimmy Stewart and John Carey and state Representative Jay Hottinger. [293] This eastern Ohio district includes Zanesville and Chillicothe. McCain won 53% here in 2008. [294] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+7).[24]
Oklahoma
- Oklahoma's 5th congressional district: Republican Mary Fallin is vacating this seat to run for governor.[15] Former state Representative Kevin Calvey, who Fallin defeated in the 2006 Republican primary for this seat, is running again and is being supported by the conservative organization the Club for Growth. Physician Johnny Roy, who also ran in 2006, is another announced Republican candidate.[295] Oklahoma City mayor Mick Cornett, who also lost to Fallin in the 2006 Republican primary, is considering running.[296] Other potential Republican candidates are Corporation Commissioners Jeff Cloud and Bob Anthony, state Senators Todd Lamb and Glenn Coffee, and state Representative Mike Thompson.[297] This district includes most of Oklahoma City as well as Pottawatomie and Seminole counties. McCain won 59% of the vote here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[24]
Oregon
- Oregon's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Greg Walden is considering a run for governor [298]. This eastern Oregon district includes Bend and Medford. McCain won 54% here in 2008. [299] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[24]
- Oregon's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Peter DeFazio may run for governor.[300] Republicans are attempting to recruit Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken to run. [301] The district consists of southwestern Oregon, including Eugene, Springfield, Roseburg, Coos Bay, and part of Corvallis: Obama won 54% here in 2008. [302] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[24]
Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire may face a challenge from state House Republican Whip Mike Turzai. [303] This Western Pennsylvania district includes Lawrence County and Beaver County and some of Pittsburgh's suburbs and exurbs, including Plum and Murryville. McCain won 55% here in 2008. [304] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+6).[24]
- Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district: Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach has formed an exploratory committee for a possible run for governor,[305] and may also run for the United States Senate. [306] Journalist Doug Pike is running for this seat as a Democrat. [307] Other potential Democratic candidates include state Senator Andy Dinniman and attorney Dan Wofford, [308] who Gerlach defeated 51.4% to 48.6% in 2002. [309] If Gerlach does run for Governor, state Representative Curt Schroder is a potential Republican candidate. [310] This southeastern Pennsylvania district, which includes some of Philadelphia's suburbs, including Ardmore, Norristown, Phoenixville, and Coatesville, as well as part of Reading, gave Obama 58% of the vote in 2008. [311] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[24]
- Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Joe Sestak may vacate this seat in order to challenge Republican turned Democratic United States Senator Arlen Spector in the Democratic primary. [312] If Sestak vacates this seat, one possible candidate to succeed him is Democratic state Representative Bryan Lentz. [313] This suburban Philadelphia district includes most of Delaware County. Obama won 56% here in 2008. [314] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[24]
- Pennsylvania's 11th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski was reelected with 52% of the vote in 2008. In 2010, he may face a primary challenge from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O'Brien. [315] This northeast Pennsylvania district includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. Obama won 57% here in 2008. [316] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+4).[24]
- Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Jack Murtha beat Republican Bill Russell in 2008 58% to 42% [317] after some controversial comments from Murtha calling his constituents "racists" and "rednecks" gave Russell a chance to pull closer in the race. [318] Russell is taking another shot at defeating Murtha, [319] who has been linked to an investigation of the lobbying group PMA Group. [320] This southwestern Pennsylvania district includes Johnstown. McCain won 49% of the vote in this district in 2008. [321] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+1).[24]
Rhode Island
- Rhode Island's 1st congressional district: Democratic incumbent Patrick Kennedy may face a challenge from Republican state Representative John Loughlin. While Kennedy has consistently been reelected in this district, a recent poll shows his approval rating falling. [322] This eastern Rhode Island district, which includes Pawtucket, Newport, and part of Providence, gave Obama 65% of the vote in 2008. [323] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+13).[24]
South Carolina
- South Carolina's 1st congressional district: Republican incumbent Henry E. Brown, Jr. won a narrow 52% to 48% reelection against Democrat Linda Ketner in 2008, emboldening potential Republican challengers.[324] Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell III, the son of former Governor Carroll A. Campbell, Jr., is considering challenging Brown in the Republican primary.[325] Former Brown staffer Katherine Jenerette, who won 19% against Brown in the 2008 Republican primary, is also running. [326] Ketner is considering a rematch; other possible Democratic candidates are former state Representitive Robert Barber, current state Representitive Leon Stavrinakis, and attorney Ashley Cooper.[327] This eastern South Carolina district includes part of Charleston and Myrtle Beach. McCain won 56% here in 2008. [328] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[24]
- South Carolina's 2nd congressional district: Republican incumbent Joe Wilson defeated his Democratic challenger, Iraq War veteran Rob Miller, 54% to 46% in 2008. Rob Miller will run again. [329] The district includes Hilton Head Island as well as part of Columbia and its suburbs. McCain won 54% here in 2008. [330] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9). [24]
- South Carolina's 3rd congressional district: Republican incumbent J. Gresham Barrett will retire to run for governor. Announced Republican candidates for this seat include state Senator Shane Massey [331] physician Mike Vasovski [332] and State Senator Jeff Duncan [333] Other possible Republican candidates are state Representatives Michael Thompson and Rex Rice, [16] lawyer James Galyean, [334], and state Senator Billy O’Dell.[335] The district, which consists of the western part of South Carolina including Anderson, Easley, Greenwood, Edgefield, and Aiken, gave McCain 64% of the vote in 2008. [336] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+17).[24]
- South Carolina's 4th congressional district: Republican Bob Inglis is facing primary election challenges from political science teacher Christina Jeffrey, businessman Andrew Smart, information systems consultant Jim Lee, and construction company owner Rick Mahler.[337] Another potential Republican candidate is state Senator David Thomas.[338] The district, which includes the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg, gave McCain 60% of the vote in 2008. [339] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+15).[24]
South Dakota
- South Dakota's at-large congressional district: Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is a potential candidate for Governor [340]. If Herseth seeks another office, possible Republican candidates include state Representative Shantel Krebs, Secretary of State Chris Nelson, and perhaps state Public Utilities Commissioner Dusty Johnson; [341] Nelson may run even if Herseth Sandlin seeks reelection. [342] The district consists of the entire state of South Dakota. McCain won 53% here in 2008. [343] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+9).[24]
Tennessee
- Tennessee's 1st congressional district: Freshman Republican Phil Roe may face a rematch from former Congressman David Davis in the Republican primary. Roe unseated Davis in the 2008 primary by 500 votes. [344] This East Tennessee district includes the Tri-Cities and Morristown. McCain won 70% of the vote in this district in 2008. [345] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+21).[24]
- Tennessee's 3rd congressional district: Republican Representative Zach Wamp has announced that he will be running for governor in 2010.[346] Republicans Tim Gobble, the Bradley County Sheriff and a former secret service agent, and electrical engineer Tom Crangle, have declared their intentions to run. Other potential Republican candidates include state Republican Party Chair Robin Smith, state Representative Gerald McCormick, state Senators Bo Watson and Dewayne Bunch, and businessman Greg Vital. On the Democratic side, former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers will run for this seat. [347] State Senator Andy Berke is also a potential Democratic candidate. [348] This East Tennessee district, which includes Chattanooga and Oak Ridge, gave John McCain 62% of the vote in 2008. [349] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[24]
- Tennessee's 6th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Bart Gordon will face a challenge from Dave Evans, the Bedford County Republican Party Chairman and a Major General in the United States Army Reserve.[350] The district, which consists of portions of Middle Tennessee including Murfreesboro, gave McCain 62% here in 2008. [351] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+13).[24]
- Tennessee's 9th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen may face a primary challenge from Memphis mayor Willie Herenton, who has formed an exploritory committee. Cohen is the only white member of Congress to represent a majority African-American district. [352] The district consists of most of the city of Memphis. Obama won 77% of the vote here in 2008. [353] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+23).[24]
Texas
- Texas's 10th congressional district: Republican Representative Michael McCaul will run for reelection. [354] Democratic Austin high-tech executive Jack McDonald has formed an exploritory committee for a possible campaign for this seat. [354] McDonald received attention from national Democrats in April 2009 after he announced he had raised $309,000 in five weeks. [355] The district includes northeastern Austin, Giddings, Brenham, and some of Houston's western suburbs, including Cypress, Katy, and Tomball. McCain won 55% of the vote here in 2008. [356] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+10).[24]
- Texas's 17th congressional district Democratic Representative Chet Edwards sits in the 19th most Republican district in the country and won with 53% in 2008. Republican Businessman Darren Yancy intends to challenge Edwards in 2010. [357] This district includes Waco, Crawford home of Former President Bush and Cleburne. McCain won 67% in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+20).[24]
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
- Virginia's 2nd congressional district: Freshman Democrat Glenn Nye unseated Republican Thelma Drake 52% to 47% in 2008. Chuck Smith, an attorney and the former chairman of the Virginia Beach Republican Party, is running. Other potential Republican candidates include Drake, state Senator Ken Stolle, former Amerigroup CEO Jeff McWaters, Virginia Beach mayor Will Sessoms, and Virginia Beach City Councilman Ron Villanueva.[358] The district includes Virginia Beach, parts of Norfolk, and parts of Hampton. Obama won 50% here in 2008. [359] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
- Virginia's 5th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Tom Perriello unseated Republican Virgil Goode by 727 votes in 2008. While Goode has not stated his 2010 plans, he has filed with the Federal Election Commission, allowing him to raise money for a rematch.[360] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Robert Hurt, former state Senator Brandon Bell, and state Delegate Rob Bell. [361] The district includes much of south-central Virginia including the cities of Danville and Charlottesville. McCain won 51% here in 2008. [362] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+5).[24]
- Virginia's 10th congressional district: Republican incumbent Frank Wolf is running for reelection. Potential Democratic candidates include state Senator Mark Herring and state Delegate David Poisson. [363] This Northern Virginia district includes Clarke County, Loudoun County, and parts of Fairfax County, including McLean and Chantilly. [364] Obama won 53% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
- Virginia's 11th congressional district: Freshman Democrat Gerald Connolly defeated Republican businessman Keith Fimian 53% to 45% in 2008. Fimian is planning to run again; other potential Republican candidates include CEO Rocky Johnson, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, and state Senator Tim Hugo.[365] This Northern Virginia district includes most of Fairfax County including the cities of Fairfax, Annandale, Burke, and Mount Vernon, as well as part of Prince William County. Obama won 57% here in 2008. [366] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+2).[24]
Washington
- Washington's 3rd congressional district: Democratic incumbent Brian Baird who could be seeking his seventh term if he decides to run for reelection will face a challenge from financial advisor David Castillo. [367] In every election after 2000, Baird beat his challenger with more than 60% of the vote. This district includes the southernmost portion of western Washington from Olympia to the Columbia River. Obama won 53% here in 2008. (Cook Partisan Voting Index EVEN).[24]
- Washington's 8th congressional district: Republican Dave Reichert is facing a challenge from Democrat Suzan DelBene, a former Microsoft vice president. [368] Darcy Burner, who challenged Reichert in the last two election cycles, is supporting DelBene. [369] This district includes some of suburban Seattle, Bellevue, Sammamish, and eastern Pierce County. Obama won 56% here in 2008. [370] (Cook Partisan Voting Index D+3).[24]
West Virginia
Wisconsin
- Wisconsin's 8th congressional district: Democratic incumbent Steve Kagen is facing a challenge from Republican Door County Supervisor Mark Savard. [371] Kagen raised a quarter of a million dollars in the first quarter of 2009. [372] This northeastern Wisconsin district includes the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. Obama won 53% here in 2008. [373] (Cook Partisan Voting Index R+2).[24]
Wyoming
See also
United States Senate elections, 2010
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