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Potential superpower

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The present day governments that have been claimed to become (or to remain) a superpower within the 21st century.
The list of governments.

A number of states have been speculated to be, or to be in the process of turning into, a superpower at some point of the 21st century. Presently, only the United States currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower. Among the most commonly mentioned are China,[3][4] India,[5] the European Union[6] and Russia.[7][8][9] However, the record of such predictions has not been perfect. For example, in the 1980s, many political and economic analysts predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge GDP and high economic growth at that time.[10]

China

Main article: Chinese Century
People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[11] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.[12][13][14] Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said that, "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's nominal GDP will likely overtake that of Japan by 2009 or 2010.[15]

International relations analyst Parag Khanna states that by making massive trade and investment deals with Latin America and Africa, China has established its presence as a superpower along with the European Union and the United States. China's rise is demonstrated by its ballooning share of trade in its gross domestic product. He believes that China's consultative style has allowed it to develop political and economic ties with many countries including those viewed as rogue states by the United States. He states that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization founded with Russia and the Central Asian countries may eventually be the "NATO of the East".[16] Another factor favoring China's rise is its government as Fareed Zakaria and other academics observed, China's government can do tasks such as development or dealing with a crisis faster than democracies in Europe or India.[17]

George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, however doesn't believe that China will be a superpower, stating that China's geographic position is actually isolated due to Siberia in the north, the Himalayas as well as jungles to the south, and the majority of China's population is in the east, saying that with this, China can't easily expand. He also states that China has not been a major naval power for centuries, and building a navy will take a very long time.[18]

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower.[19] Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment. Amy Chua states that whether a country has enough pull to bring immigrants is an important quality for a superpower. She also writes that China lacks the pull to bring scientists, thinkers, and innovators from other countries as immigrants. However, she believes that China has made up for this with its own diaspora, saying that size and resources for them are unparalleled.[20]

European Union

European Union

The European Union (EU) has been called an emerging superpower by academics.[6][21] Many scholars and academics like T.R. Reid,[22] Andrew Reding,[23] Mark Leonard,[24] Jeremy Rifkin,[25] John McCormick,[26] and some politicians like Romano Prodi[27] and Tony Blair[28][29] either believe that the EU is, or will become, a superpower in the 21st century.

Mark Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy (the EU has the largest non-national economy in the world - the EU's economy is slightly larger than that of the U.S. in terms of GDP purchasing (PPP) and ~24% larger in terms of nominal GDP, as of 2008 [30]), low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week, health care, social services).[31]

John McCormick believes that the EU has already achieved superpower status, based on the size and global reach of its economy and on its global political influence. He argues that the nature of power has changed since the Cold War-driven definition of superpower was developed, and that military power is no longer essential to great power; he argues that control of the means of production is more important than control of the means of destruction, and contrasts the threatening hard power of the United States with the opportunities offered by the soft power wielded by the European Union.[32]

Parag Khanna agrees, and like McCormick and Leonard believes that the EU will rival the power of the United States in the 21st century.[33][34] He also mentions the large economy of the EU, that European technologies more and more set the global standards and that European countries give the most development assistance. On the fact that the EU lacks a common army, he agrees with McCormick that the EU does not need one. The EU uses intelligence and the police to apprehend radical Islamists, social policy to try to integrate restive Muslim populations and economic strength to incorporate the former Soviet Union and gradually subdue Russia.[33] Khanna also writes that South America, East Asia, and other regions prefer to emulate the "European Dream" than the American variant.[35] This could possibly be seen in the South American Union and the African Union. Notably, the EU as a whole is among the most culturally diverse "entities" on the planet[36], with some of the world's largest and most influential languages being official within its borders [37].

Andrew Reding also takes the future EU enlargement into account. An eventual future accession of the rest of Europe would not only boost the economy of the EU, but it would also increase the EU's population to a level almost equal to that of India and China. The EU is qualitatively different from India and China, however. It is enormously more prosperous and technologically advanced.[23] An important acceding nation is Turkey, which has been a candidate country of the European Union since 1999. The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan told the Journal of Turkish Weekly in 2005 that: "In 10 or 15 years, the EU will be a place where civilizations meet. It will be a superpower with the inclusion of Turkey." [38]

Author Robert J. Guttman writes in his book Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower that the very definition of the term superpower has changed and that in the new 21st century, it doesn't only refer to states with "military power", but also to groups such as the European Union, which has strong market economics; young, highly educated workers who are savvy in high technology; and a global vision.[39]

Alexander Stubb, the Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs said on July 17 2008 that he thinks the EU is and is not a superpower. While the EU is a superpower in the sense that it is the largest political union, single market and aid donor in the world, it is not a superpower in the defense or foreign policy spheres. Factors constraining the EU’s rise to superpower status include its lack of statehood in the international system, a lack of internal drive to project power worldwide, and nostalgia for the nation-state amongst some Europeans. To become an actual superpower in the coming years, Mr. Stubb urged the EU to approve and ratify the Lisbon Treaty, create an EU foreign ministry, develop a common EU defense, hold one collective seat at the UN Security Council and G8, and address what he described as the “sour mood” toward the EU prevalent in some European countries today.[40]

A large-scale study made by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, indicates that the EU is the most "popular" superpower. People across the world like to see the European Union become more influential. The study, which quizzed 57,000 people across 52 countries, found that the EU was "unique among the four big powers (China, the EU, Russia and the United States) in that no one wants to balance its rise." According to the European council on foreign relations, which sponsored the research, 35 per cent of world citizens want the 27-member bloc to grow in power.[41] Britons were revealed to be the most ambivalent towards the EU's growing influence with a positive balance of just eight per cent.[42] The voice of the global opinion is very powerful. The author Anthony Barnett has even called the world opinion "the second superpower." [43]

Additionally, it is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the obsession with the rule of law)[44] and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones;[45] however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower such as the United States.[46]

"The EU is not and never will be a superpower" according to UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs David Miliband. [47] Lacking a unified foreign policy and with an inability to project military power worldwide, the EU lacks "the substance of superpowers," who by definition have "first of all military reach [and] possess the capacity to arrive quickly anywhere with troops that can impose their government's will." [48]. EU parliamentarian Ilka Schroeder argues that conflicts such as the Israeli-Palestinian dispute see close EU involvement largely to competensate for European inability to project military power internationally.[49] Even with a high quality of life, demographic realities in the EU will mean that in 2020, the US will remain a superpower, with the EU falling further behind as its three largest economies (Germany, France and Britain) suffer declining population, according to The Daily Telegraph and a study from Deutsche Bank. [50][51] [52]

The Economist editor Robert Lane Greene notes that the lack of a strong European military only exasperates the lack of unified EU foreign policy and discounts any EU arguments towards superpower status, noting especially that the EU's creation of a global response force rivaling the superpower's (America) is "unthinkable."[53] Britain's Michael Howard has warned against the "worry" that many Europeans are pushing for greater EU integration to counter-balance the United States, [54] while Europe's total reliance on soft (non-military) power is in part because of it's lack of a "shared identity." [55] While to some the European Union should be a "model power" unafraid of using military force and backing free trade, it's military shortcomings argue against superpower status.[56]

India

Republic of India

Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.[5][57] Daniel Lak describes India as the underdog, facing more challenges than advantages, yet it is approaching superpower status. He also mentions that despite the hardships of large amount of poverty, and social inequality, India is overcoming all of this.[58]

Fareed Zakaria also believes that India has a fine chance at becoming a superpower, pointing out that India's young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China, and noting that while other industrial countries will face a youth gap, India will have a large, young workforce. Zakaria says another strength that India has is that, despite being one of the poorest countries in the world, its democratic government has lasted for 60 years, stating that a democracy can provide for long-term stability.[17] India also has been gaining influence in Asia with trade agreements, direct investment, military exercises, and aids funds. It is good allies with countries such as Iran and Japan, and has emerging ties with countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, and it even has an airforce base in Tajikistan.[59]

Parag Khanna believes that India is not, and will not become a superpower for the foreseeable future, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite.[60] Instead, he believes India will be a key swing state along with Russia.[61] He says that India is "big but not important," has a highly successful professional class, while hundreds of millions of its citizens still live in poverty. It is "almost completely third world".[62] He also writes that it matters that China borders a dozen more countries than India and is not hemmed in by a vast ocean and the world's tallest mountains. China has a loyal diaspora twice the size of India's and enjoys a head start in Asian and African marketplaces.[63]

Robyn Meredith claims that both India and China will be superpowers. However, she points out that China is decades ahead of India, and that the average Chinese person is better off than the average Indian person.[64] Amy Chua also adds to this, stating that while India's potential for superpower is great, it still faces many problems such as "pervasive rural poverty, disease-filled urban slums, entrenched corruption, and egregious maternal mortality rates just to name a few". Also like China, India lacks the "pull" for immigrants, and Indians still continue to emigrate in large numbers. However, she notes that India has made tremendous strides to fix this, stating that some of India's achievements, such as working to dismantle the centuries old caste system and maintaining the world's largest diverse democracy is historically unprecedented.[20]

Russia

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation has been suggested by some as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status in the twenty-first century due to its fast-growing economy and the size of its military. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense." Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex... and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom."

Alexander Golts of the The St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the US on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.[65] In a more recent report by ABC News, a senior U.S. official asserted that "Russia is once again indisputably the number two military power in the world, second only to the United States".[66] Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people and using their power to do so."[67] Russia is often considered to be an energy superpower and a nuclear superpower due to its vast amounts of natural resources and large nuclear arsenal mostly leftover from the former Soviet Union.[68][69]

There are significant obstacles to Russia gaining superpower status. In recent years Russia's sphere of influence significantly shrunk owing in part to gains by the EU and NATO.[70][70] Russia's currently shrinking and aging population[70][71][71] is a major problem for the country. In addition, Russia is currently only the eighth largest economy in the world by nominal GDP, and by this parameter is approximately eleven times smaller than the EU economy and about eight times smaller than the US one (in 2008). However by GDP (PPP), Russia is the 8th largest economy in the world. [72]Russia is heavily reliant on resource extraction, especially fossil fuels, for its economy.[73] Additionally, even though Russia has the largest amount of nuclear weapons in the world, it has been debated that the last country that would benefit to use nuclear weapons, and to potentialy start a nuclear war, would be Russia, since Russia only has two major population center zones or economic hubs.[70]

See also

References

  1. ^ Country profile: United States of America, BBC News, Accessed July 22, 2008
  2. ^ "Analyzing American Power in the Post-Cold War Era". Retrieved 2007-02-28.
  3. ^ Lague, D (2007) China builds a superpower fighter, International Herald Tribune
  4. ^ http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2006/jun/15/comment.china
  5. ^ a b India Rising | Newsweek International | Newsweek.com
  6. ^ a b Guttman, R.J. (2001) Europe in the New Century, Lynne Rienner Publishers
  7. ^ Rosefielde, S (2004) Russia in the 21st Century, Cambridge University Press
  8. ^ CNN 2008 interview with US Senators Carl Levin & John Cornyn (Russia a superpower)[1]
  9. ^ New York Times by Ronald Steel professor of international relations August 24, 2008 (Superpower Reborn)[2]
  10. ^ Greenwald, J (1988) Japan From Superrich To Superpower, TIME
  11. ^ Visions of China, CNN Specials, Accessed March 11, 2007
  12. ^ www.carnegieendowment.org
  13. ^ www.getabstract.com
  14. ^ www.au.af.mil
  15. ^ http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cpi/updates/blog_posts/20_04_2009.php
  16. ^ Waving Goodbye to Hegemony (PARAG KHANNA)
  17. ^ a b Zakaria, F (2008) The Post-American World, “W. W. Norton and Company” ISBN 9780393062359
  18. ^ Friedman, G (2009)The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, "Doubleday" ISBN 9780385517058
  19. ^ Shirk, S (2008) China:Fragile Superpower, "Oxford University Press, USA ISBN 9780195373196
  20. ^ a b Chua, A (2007) Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance -- and why They Fall, "Random House" ISBN 9780385512848
  21. ^ Wilson Center The EU Future: Global Power or European Governance?, Wilson Center
  22. ^ Reid, T.R. (2004) The United States of Europe 305p, Penguin Books ISBN 1594200335
  23. ^ a b Reding, A (2002) EU in position to be world’s next superpower, Chicago Tribune
  24. ^ Mark Leonard, (2006) Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century, Perseus Books Group ISBN 1586484249
  25. ^ Rifkin, J. (2004) The European Dream ISBN 1-58542-345-9The European Dream ISBN 1-58542-345-9
  26. ^ The European Superpower
  27. ^ The Atlantic
  28. ^ allbusiness
  29. ^ WORLD POLICY JOURNAL
  30. ^ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
  31. ^ Mark Leonard (2005) Europe: the new superpower, Irish Times
  32. ^ John McCormickThe European Superpower
  33. ^ a b Khanna P.Waving Goodbye to Hegemony, New York Times Magazine
  34. ^ Khanna P.Guess Who's Coming to Power
  35. ^ Khanna P
  36. ^ http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/section?content=a770439041&fulltext=713240928
  37. ^ http://www.nocturne.ca/nn-worldlanguages.htm
  38. ^ Journal of Turkish Weekly
  39. ^ Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower
  40. ^ [3]
  41. ^ Ivan Krastev (2007-10-24). "New World Order: The Balance of Soft Power and the Rise of Herbivorous Powers" (pdf). Voice of the Peoples survey by Gallup International Association in co-operation with ECFR. European Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 2009-08-17. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
  42. ^ inthenews
  43. ^ World opinion: The New Superpower?
  44. ^ John McCormickThe European Superpower
  45. ^ Hyde-Price A (2004) The EU, Power and Coercion: From 'Civilian' to 'Civilising' Power Arena
  46. ^ http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17726
  47. ^ http://www.gees.org/documentos/Documen-02639.pdf
  48. ^ http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull&cid=1226404727902
  49. ^ http://www.crosswalk.com/1238927/
  50. ^ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/2819359/US-will-retake-economic-superpower-crown.html
  51. ^ http://www.watchingamerica.com/lefigaro000043.html
  52. ^ http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/news/2005/mar/demog_gp_en.html
  53. ^ http://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/173-sovereign/30500.html
  54. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4020973.stm
  55. ^ http://uscpublicdiplomacy.com/index.php/newsroom/specialreports_detail/the_european_union_a_quiet_superpower_or_a_relic_of_the_past/
  56. ^ [4]
  57. ^ India welcomed as new sort of superpower, IHT, Accessed March 11, 2007
  58. ^ Lak, D (2008) India Express: The Future of the New Superpower, "Palgrave Macmillan" ISBN 9780230607837
  59. ^ http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/07/20/news/india.php?page=1
  60. ^ Waving Goodbye to Hegemony
  61. ^ Khanna, P (2008) The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order, “Random House” ISBN 978140065080
  62. ^ We’re #1? Tell China
  63. ^ The Rise of Non-Americanism
  64. ^ Meredith, R (2008) The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What it Means for All of Us, "W.W Norton and Company" ISBN 9780393331936
  65. ^ St. Petersburg Times: "Dreaming of New Conflicts"
  66. ^ Rice: Russia's Military Moves 'a Problem' ABC News Oct. 14, 2007
  67. ^ Russia: A superpower rises again[December 13, 2006]
  68. ^ Chance, Matthew (Junde 27, 2007). "Eye on Russia: Russia's resurgence". Cable News Network. Retrieved 2007-10-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  69. ^ "Russia: A superpower rises again". Retrieved 2006-06-10.
  70. ^ a b c d [5]
  71. ^ a b Russia, Population, Demographic Crisis - JRL 4-28-05
  72. ^ https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html
  73. ^ Russia Called Too Reliant on Petroleum - New York Times
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