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2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
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States in blue are the early states that will vote first, states in orange are the small states that will vote second, states in green, purple and gold are the large states that will vote either third, fourth or fifth, rotating every election cycle.[1]
Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election, 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar Schedule

Ohio Plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 to implement an Ohio Plan that would divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising just fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[2]

Convention

Though no plans have been brought forward about which city or the week the Republican National Convention for 2012 will take place, it has been speculated that Republicans will take a usual late convention approach and schedule a convention after the London 2012 Olympics (whose closing ceremonies are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2012.) Traditionally, the party which holds the White House is the last to hold its convention, which means that in 2012 the Republican Convention will likely be held prior to the Democratic Convention. There has been a trend during recent cycles of having the conventions very late in the summer: indeed, the last two Republican conventions took place in early September rather than July or August.

Several cities have been suggested as planning for a 2012 Convention bid including:

Possible Republican candidates

Further information: United States presidential election, 2012

No person has announced his or her intention to run for the Republican Party nomination. Since the primaries have not yet begun, it is too early to definitively determine who will actually run. The following are individuals who may or may not have an interest in running for President in the 2012 election. The list contains individuals who have either declared interest in a candidacy or have been speculated as possible candidates in articles by pundits and journalists. Some of these individuals have claimed they no longer have an interest in running. However, unless it has been stated in reliable sources that a candidate has been ruled out due to disqualifying circumstances, the candidate will remain on this list, which is arranged in chronological order by the article cited with the most recent publication date. This list includes only candidates that have been the subject of specluation by a notable source, within the past six months, of a possible presidential bid. This section was last updated October 1, 2009.

Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota September 21, 2009: Cynthia Dizikes of the Minnesota Post wrote that "if the 2012 presidential primaries were held today, Gov. Tim Pawlenty would not be on the ticket — at least if it were up to a crowd of Christian conservative voters who gathered in Washington D.C. this weekend to attend the annual Values Voter Summit. Despite a well-received speech that Pawlenty gave at the event on Friday evening, former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee and former governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney were still the most popular picks, according to a straw poll conducted at the gathering. But all was not lost for the soon-to-be former governor of Minnesota, who announced this summer that he would not seek a third term amid speculation that he might run for the presidency in 2012.[6]

September 22, 2009 08:41 PM: Brian Bakst of Huffington Post wrote that "Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is preparing to launch a national fundraising committee, another signal the Republican may be positioning himself for a possible 2012 presidential run. "I haven't ruled anything in or out. I'm not focused on 2012," he told The Associated Press. "The formation of this PAC under law and as a practical matter is geared toward supporting and helping other candidates. It's not geared or designed, nor can it be, a vehicle for me to run for something else."[7]

October 1, 2009:Jonathan Martin of The Politico reported that Pawlenty "has been quietly assembling the blueprint of a presidential campaign and will announce Thursday (October 2) the support of a group of high-level political strategists and donors, complemented by a handful of top new media consultants."[8]

Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts September 2, 2009 10:29 AM EST: Jonathan Martin of Politico wrote that, "while he remains publicly coy about the possibility of another White House bid, Mitt Romney has a calendar that tells a very different story. "...on the host list are two of John McCain’s top donors from the 2008 campaign, Wayne Berman and Fred Malek. Both are veteran GOP fundraising dynamos who would be significant assets to a 2012 Romney presidential run. Contacted by Politico, Berman and Malek each praised the former governor but indicated it was too early to make presidential commitments."[9]

September 21, 2009 8:22 AM: Ralph Z. Hallow of the Washington Times quoted Romney as saying, "Mr. Obama's policies encourage "a growing sense of dependency and entitlements," and are making some Americans "less apt to create new businesses, to strike out on new adventures and pursue opportunities that have always been the source of America's vitality economically," he said. The mention of Mr. Romney's name in political circles instantly raises the question of whether he will make another run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012.[10]

September 26, 2009: Andy Barr of Politico wrote that "the national health care reform debate is far from settled, but one of the casualties is already clear: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Romney finds himself bruised and on the defensive as the GOP rallies around opposition to President Barack Obama’s plans. When Romney came to Washington last week to speak to social conservative activists at the annual Value Voters Summit, his potential 2012 GOP rivals chewed him up in front of the same audience over his Massachusetts legacy.[11]

Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska August 5, 2009: USA Today reported that "Her long-term political plans are unclear — and there's speculation about a possible a 2012 presidential bid" because of her plans to write a book and that John McCain had said, "he sees Sarah Palin continuing to play a major role in the future of the Republican Party."[12]

September 19, 2009 04:52 PM: The Huffington Post wrote an article, entitled "Huckabee Beats Palin For President In 2012 Straw Poll"[13]

September 23, 2009 03:59 PM: Daniel Ten Kate of Bloomberg.com wrote an article, "Palin Criticizes Obama’s China Tariffs in CLSA Speech". Kate pointed out that "in a wide-ranging, 80-minute speech that may augment both her bank account and overseas profile ahead of a possible 2012 White House bid, Palin spoke today about issues ranging from Alaskan fishing to U.S.-Sino ties, several people said." "When Palin resigned her governorship, it was assumed that it was in part to make more money, build a nest egg and lay the groundwork for a 2012 presidential race,” said Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. “This trip is simply an example of her doing so." [14]

Former Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming August 31, 2009: James Taranto of The Wall Street Journal speculated on the possibility that "the 2012 election may end up turning on national security" and added that "under such circumstances, it's hard to think of a better candidate--assuming, of course, that he could be persuaded to run--than Richard B. Cheney."

September 1, 2009 10:15 AM EST: Sam Stein of Huffington Post wrote an article called, "Cheney In 2012? Some Key GOPers Aren't Kidding". Stein quoted "longtime pollster and GOP operative" John McLaughlin as saying, "a Cheney nomination "would be a serious consideration because he really has been a defender of policies that the majority of people now think are successful, although right now a lot of people are focused on the economy, if there ever was some sort of foreign policy crisis people will look to Dick Cheney and say he had it right."[15]

September 22, 2009 11:53 PM: Sam Stein of Huffington Post "Discusses Cheney 2012, Condoleeza Rice's Afghanistan Comments On Rachel Maddow Show".[16]

Cheney was born on 30 January 1941 [17]. If nominated and elected, he would be 71 on Inauguration Day 2013, and 75 at the completion of his first term. He would thus be older than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Ronald Reagan, who was just short of 70).[18]

Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas August 28, 2009: Chris Good of The Atlantic wrote, "who better to travel with than a minister who can relate the stories of the Old Testament and dish on Obama's foreign policy stances as a potential 2012 presidential candidate?"[19]

September 2, 2009 4:13 PM EST: Roger Simon of Politico wrote, "it is official: When the Republicans run against Barack Obama in 2012, there will be no more Mr. Nice Guy. Mike Huckabee was that guy last time around. When he ran for the Republican nomination in 2008, he was amiable and affable. He even told jokes."[20]

September 19, 2009: FOXNews wrote, "Huckabee Wins 2012 Straw Poll at Values Voters Summit. The summit's poll, which featured nine presidential prospects, found that 28 percent of Christian conservatives said Huckabee would revive the Republican party and traditional conservative principles. When asked if he'd seek the office again in 2012, Huckabee told the Associated Press, "I'm not ruling anything out for the future, but I'm not making any specific plans."[21]

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. August 18, 2009: [22]

September 12, 2009:Santorum acknowledged that he is considering a presidential bid in 2012.[23]

September 15, 2009: Ben Smith of Politico wrote that "Rick Santorum affirmed on an RNC conference call -- aimed at attacking Arlen Specter -- that he's considering a run for president in 2012 -- because, he said, the Obama presidency is "injurious to America." "The dynamic has changed," Santorum said. "A lot of folks who might not have thought about running against an incumbent president" are now considering it."[24]

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York August 31, 2009: New York Magazine says "And while Giuliani surveys the bleak landscape in Albany, he has his eye on the shifting ground in Washington. President Obama appears to be vulnerable, and the Republican field in 2012 is open. "Do you go to Albany in a thankless job, or do you take another shot nationally?" asks a close observer of Giuliani. "He's aware that the Obama administration is falling apart much more quickly than anybody imagined.[25]

September 1, 2009: Jim Myers of NewsMax said, "the "general consensus" among Republicans around the state is that Rudy won't enter the race [(for Governor of New York)], New York Magazine reports. The chief reason: He has his eye on the White House in 2012. What's clear to them is that Giuliani wants to be a contender...He's intent on mounting a comeback and hasn't lost sight of his larger ambition in Washington."[26]

September 14, 2009: Jim Meyers of NewsMax wrote that "GOP officials are readying a push to have him run for the Senate instead next year. Giuliani...would "have an immediate national platform in the Senate," Fredric Dicker of Inside Albany column in the New York Post observed. And since the winner of the 2010 special election would serve only the two years remaining on Clinton's term, Rudy could run for president again in 2012. But if Giuliani ran for governor instead and won, he would likely have to remain in Albany for at least four years.[27]

Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico June 24, 2009: During an appearance on FOX News's Freedom Watch, host Judge Andrew Napolitano asked Johnson if he would run for President in 2012, to which Johnson responded that he thought it would be inappropriate to openly express his desires before President Obama is given the opportunity to prove himself, but he followed up that statement by saying "it appears personal freedoms are being shoveled out the window, more and more."[28]

July 25, 2009: Approximately 86% of Republicans had yet to form an opinion of him as a presidential candidate, according to an Angus Reid Strategies national poll.[29]

September 6, 2009: Walter Rubel, the managing editor of New Mexico's Silver City Sun-News, published a piece entitled "Gary Johnson's entry would shake up 2012 campaign," saying of the grassroots website, JohnsonForAmerica.com, that "if a group of libertarian-leaning political advocates get their way, New Mexico will once again have a horse in the race when America selects its president in 2012."[30]

Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida May 12, 2009: Former Vice President Dick Cheney said that he would "probably support him for president."[31]

June 26, 2009: John Aloysius Farrell of the U.S. News & World Report commented that recent "self-destructions" by other potential candidates made a Bush run "not impossible."[32]

September 3, 2009 1:36 PM EST: Dan Weil of NewsMax said, "Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he's not running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 — at least for now. Weil went to quote Bush as saying, "I'm focused on my own private life and trying to help others continue their public service," Bush said. "It's a secondary role, not a primary role, and it'll probably remain that way." [33]

Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina File:Governor Mark Sanford Jobs and Growth Tour.jpg June 24, 2009: Sanford called a press conference and confessed to an extramarital affair, and announced that he would resign as Chair of the Republican Governors Association.[34][35] Prior to the revelation of the affair, an unnamed "former Reagan and Bush adviser" was quoted as saying that Sanford had "disqualified himself" from the 2012 race.[36]

June 30, 2009: Roger Simon of Politico wrote an article called "Four reasons Mark Sanford has a future" and said, "Mark Sanford only looks washed up. True, as governor of South Carolina, he recently walked off his job to secretly visit his mistress in Argentina. And, true, he was forced to admit his affair in a news conference that made him look stressed out at best and unbalanced at worst."[37]

September 3, 2009 3:36 PM EST: The Economist wrote that, "the governor has rejected all calls to step down. Instead he is stepping up travel around the state, asking forgiveness for his lapses and announcing that his priority is now to restructure state government. The governor, who was once considered a likely presidential contender in 2012, says he does not intend to run for any other political post once his term expires in January 2011. No one is begging him to change his mind."[38]

Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana May 11, 2009 – June 5, 2009: The possibility of a Daniels candidacy was mentioned by William Kristol,[39] and Byron York.[40]

June 5, 2009: Speaking at a panel discussion hosted by the Hudson Institute, Daniels ended speculation that he will run by saying "I've only ever run for or held one office. It's the last one I'm going to hold."[41]

September 1, 2009: Mike Smith of the Associated Press told the Washington Times that "he's not interested in the "savagery" of a national campaign. But like it or not, Mr. Daniels is being mentioned in conservative Republican circles as someone to watch in 2012. Many say the governor is just what the battered party needs, a blend of conservative values, cool demeanor and fiscal discipline."[42]

Representative Mike Pence of Indiana June 24, 2009: Domenico Montanaro of MSNBC wrote that Pence has "made the cable rounds, but it remains to be seen if average voters could pick him out of a lineup."[43]

July 13, 2009: Congressional Quarterly reported that Pence had scheduled "a trip to Iowa starting July 25."[44]. Pence, however, told The Des Moines Register.

July 24, 2009: "I have no plans to run for president. I'm entirely focused on the people of eastern Indiana and electing as many Republicans to the U.S. House as we can. The future will take care of itself."[45]

Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi June 9, 2009: reported that the New Hampshire Republican State Committee had sent out an invitation to an "evening with Haley Barbour". An unnamed "GOP operative" was quoted as saying "When you start going to Iowa and New Hampshire, the writing's on the wall."[46]

June 23, 2009: Barbour said that he would "probably never" make a decision on running for president.[47]

June 25, 2009: Barbour visited Iowa again sidestepping discussion about his presidential bid until after the 2010 elections. “If after that, it seems like a reasonable thing, I will consider it... I have no intention to run for president. But I’ve been around long enough to ‘say never say never’”.[48]

Senator John Ensign of Nevada May 13, 2009: Ensign added two extra events to his schedule in Iowa in June.[49]

June 16, 2009: Ensign admitted to having had an extramarital affair with a member of his campaign staff.[50][51]

June 17, 2009: Ensign resigned his position as Republican Policy Committee Chairman.[52]

Hypothetical polling

References

  1. ^ GOP Weighs Calendar Changes for 2012
  2. ^ "GOP Weighs Calendar Changes for 2012". Washington Post.
  3. ^ "Indiana Republicans look at 2012 convention bid". FOX 59.
  4. ^ "Oxendine eyes 2012 convention in ATL". AJC.com.
  5. ^ "State leaders support San Antonio run at 2012 GOP convention". San Antonio Business Journal.
  6. ^ http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2009/09/21/11747/pawlenty_preaches_to_the_choir_but_some_go_away_unconverted
  7. ^ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/22/pawlenty-2012-pac-formed_n_294946.html
  8. ^ Martin, Jonathan (October 1, 2009) "Pawlenty preps 2012 campaign team", Politico.com. Retrieved on October 1, 2009.
  9. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/26676.html
  10. ^ http://www.newsmax.com/politics/romney_obama/2009/09/21/262502.html
  11. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27610.html
  12. ^ http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-08-02-mccain-palin_N.htm
  13. ^ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/19/huckabee-beats-palin-for-_n_292412.html
  14. ^ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a9SEs01FcRNE
  15. ^ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/01/cheney-in-2012-some-key-g_n_273470.html
  16. ^ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-tv/sam-stein-discusses-chene_b_295593.html
  17. ^ [1]
  18. ^ [2]
  19. ^ http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/08/mike_huckabee_tour_guide.php
  20. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26635.html
  21. ^ http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/19/huckabee-wins-straw-poll-values-voters-summit
  22. ^ http://www.thebulletin.us/articles/2009/08/18/news/local_state/doc4a83001be9708577272980.txt
  23. ^ http://www.lifesitenews.com/ldn/2009/sep/09091202.html
  24. ^ http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0909/Santorum_may_challenge_injurious_Obama.html
  25. ^ http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2009/08/why_wont_giuliani_aim_for_alba.html
  26. ^ http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/guiliani_governor_cuomo/2009/09/01/254966.html
  27. ^ http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/giuliani_senate_gop_cuomo/2009/09/14/259784.html
  28. ^ Gary Johnson interviewed on FOX News's Freedom Watch 6/24
  29. ^ Angus Reid Strategies National 2012 Poll
  30. ^ Walter Rubel (06 September 2009). "Gary Johnson's entry would shake up 2012 campaign". Silver City Sun-News. Retrieved 09 September 2009. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= and |date= (help)
  31. ^ Barr, Andy (May 12, 2009). "Dick Cheney backs Jeb Bush for president". The Politico. Retrieved June 27, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  32. ^ Farrell, John Aloysius (June 26, 2009). "Jeb Bush for President in 2012? After Sanford, Ensign Etc., It's Not Impossible". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved June 27, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  33. ^ http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/jeb_bush_president_2012/2009/09/03/256057.html
  34. ^ "Gov. Sanford admits to extramarital affair". MSNBC. June 24, 2009. Retrieved June 24, 2009.
  35. ^ Smith, Gina (June 24, 2009). "Sanford admits affair, apologizes to wife and family". The State. Retrieved June 24, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  36. ^ Bedard, Paul (June 24, 2009). "GOP Presidential Strategists: Sanford's Trip Ends White House Ambitions". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved June 24, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  37. ^ http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24358.html
  38. ^ http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14367217&fsrc=rss
  39. ^ Kristol, William (May 11, 2009). "A Hoosier in the White House?". The Weekly Standard. Retrieved June 10, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  40. ^ York, Byron (June 5, 2009). "Can Mitch Daniels save the GOP?". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved June 10, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  41. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (June 3, 2009). "Daniels Ends 2012 Speculation". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved June 10, 2009.
  42. ^ http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/sep/01/daniels-wins-praise-to-boost-gop-in-2012
  43. ^ http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/06/24/1976019.aspx?p=1
  44. ^ Ota, Alan K. (July 13, 2009). "Two House Republicans' Activity May Indicate Ambitions for 2012". Congressional Quarterly. Retrieved July 14, 2009.
  45. ^ Beaumont, Thomas (July 24, 2009) "No. 3 House GOP leader just visiting, not '12 candidate", Des Moines Register.com. Retrieved on July 24, 2009.
  46. ^ Akers, Mary Ann (June 9, 2009). "Haley Barbour Enters the 2012 Thicket". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 11, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  47. ^ Hamby, Peter (June 23, 2009). "Barbour on 2012 decision: probably never". CNN. Retrieved June 23, 2009.
  48. ^ Eby, Charlotte (June 25, 2009) Barbour hedges on 2012 presidential bid in Iowa stop. Cedar Rapids Gazette
  49. ^ Cillizza, Chris (May 13, 2009). "Ensign Extends Iowa Trip". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 12, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  50. ^ Herzenhorn, David M. (June 16, 2009). "Senator Ensign Admits Extramarital Affair". The New York Times. Retrieved June 18, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  51. ^ Freking, Kevin (June 17, 2009). "Sen. Ensign admits affair with ex-campaign staffer". Google News.
  52. ^ "Sen. John Ensign resigns GOP leadership post". CNN. June 17, 2009. Retrieved June 18, 2009.
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