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2012 United States presidential election

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United States presidential election, 2012
← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
One projection of the Electoral College map for the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.[1]


The United States presidential election of 2012 is the next United States presidential election, to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, which will be the 57th quadrennial presidential election in which the popularly elected presidential electors, who will actually elect the President and the Vice President of the United States, will be chosen. Democratic President Barack Obama will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.

The 2012 presidential election will coincide with the United States Senate elections where 33 races will be occurring as well as the United States House of Representatives elections to elect the members for the 113th Congress. The election will also encompass eleven gubernatorial races as well as many state legislature races.

Electoral College changes

The 2010 Census will ultimately decide how the electoral map will be laid out for the 2012 election, but population projections based upon Census updates give an estimate of how the Electoral College vote apportionment will change. The Census occurs every ten years and is the basis for electoral vote reapportionment based on relative state population changes. According to a study based on the 2007 population estimates, the likely changes are as follows.[2]

States in blue represent states won by the Democratic Party in the 2008 presidential election, while names in red represent states won by the Republican Party. Based on the 2008 results, this would give the Democratic Party a net loss of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 358, and the Republican Party a net gain of seven electoral votes, for a national total of 180.

Potential congressional enlargement

If the District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act of 2009 had passed, the Electoral College would have been expanded by the addition of a new elector. The act would have replaced the congressional delegate from the District of Columbia (at present Eleanor Holmes Norton, a Democrat) with a voting representative in the House for the 112th Congress. However, this would affect the Electoral College; adding a new congressional district in the state of Utah, for which a representative would be elected in 2010 to serve in the 112th Congress starting in 2011.

As the number of electors in the Electoral College is the number of United States senators (100) plus the number of voting members of the United States House of Representatives (435) plus a provision of a minimum number of electors for the District of Columbia pursuant to the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution (3), the addition of two voting House members, one of whom would already be represented in the Electoral College by provision of the Twenty-third Amendment, would likely increase the number of electors to 539, according to political analyst and statistician Nate Silver.[3]

Election changes

Republican Party Ohio plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 that they would implement an Ohio plan that would divide the primary states in their nominating process into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states (in terms of the Electoral College) would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[4]

Presidential conventions

Several cities have expressed interest or intent to bid for the 2012 conventions. Indianapolis,[5] Atlanta,[6] and San Antonio[7] have considered bidding for the 2012 Republican National Convention while Columbus and Dallas[8] have shown interest in bidding for the 2012 Democratic National Convention.

Considering previous national conventions, it is likely that parties will avoid their conventions coinciding with the 2012 Summer Olympics in London, which will run from July 27 to August 12. There has been a trend in recent cycles toward holding the conventions later in the summer.

Potential candidates

The following are individuals who are, or have been, the subject of speculation in prominent media sources as being possible presidential contenders in the 2012 election. The speculation may stem from noted media analysts and commentators, or from actions or comments made by the individuals themselves—which suggest the possibility of a presidential run—as reported in reliable media sources.

Possible Democratic Party candidates

  • President Barack Obama is eligible for a second term. Since 1972, every incumbent President eligible for re-election has been so nominated by his party.

Possible Republican Party candidates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012 § Possible Republican candidates

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Republican Party nomination. The following are individuals that have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Possible Green Party candidates

Main article: Green Party (United States) presidential candidates, 2012

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Green Party nomination. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Possible Libertarian Party candidates

Main article: Libertarian Party (United States) presidential candidates, 2012

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Libertarian Party nomination. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.

Possible Reform Party candidates

Main article: Reform Party of the United States presidential candidates, 2012

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy for the Reform Party nomination. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.

  • Entrepreneur and activist Ted Weill of Mississippi was the Reform Party of the United States candidate in 2008, but a lawsuit prevented him from running a viable campaign. He has expressed interest in a serious campaign in 2012. [28]

Possible independent candidates

Main article: Independent (United States) presidential candidates, 2012

No one has formally announced his or her candidacy as an independent. The following are individuals that are or have been speculated about as possible candidates.

See also

References

  1. ^ Benson, Clark (2007-12-27). "Displacement of Katrina Victims Still Has Impact:Apportionment in 2010" (PDF). Polidata. Retrieved 2008-03-21.
  2. ^ Brace, Kimball (2008-12-22). "New Population Estimates Show Slight Changes For 2008 Congressional Apportionment, But Point to Major Changes for 2010" (PDF). ElectionDataServices. Retrieved 2008-12-25.
  3. ^ Silver, Nate (February 26, 2009). "FiveThirty ... Nine?". FiveThirtyEight.com.
  4. ^ "GOP Weighs Calendar Changes for 2012". Washington Post.
  5. ^ "Indiana Republicans look at 2012 convention bid". FOX 59. 8 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  6. ^ "Oxendine eyes 2012 convention in ATL". AJC.com. 4 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  7. ^ "State leaders support San Antonio run at 2012 GOP convention". San Antonio Business Journal. 12 September 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  8. ^ "Dallas officials consider bidding for 2012 political conventions". The Dallas Morning News. 31 August 2008. Retrieved 28 December 2008.
  9. ^ Akers, Mary Ann (June 9, 2009). "Haley Barbour Enters the 2012 Thicket". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 11, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  10. ^ Sammon, Bill (January 4, 2009). "Bush 41: Jeb Bush for President". Fox News Channel. Retrieved June 27, 2009.
  11. ^ Newton-Small, Jay (February 23, 2009). "Eric Cantor: Giving the GOP Back Its Mojo". Time. Retrieved June 12, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  12. ^ Riechmann, Deb (May 23, 2009). "Don't call ex-Vice President Cheney a has-been". Yahoo! News. Retrieved June 12, 2009.
  13. ^ Taranto, James (August 31, 2009). "Cheney for President". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 1, 2009.
  14. ^ Nolan, Jim (March 5, 2009). "Gingrich, in Ashland, ponders White House run; says Cantor will be Speaker someday". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved June 10, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  15. ^ Baier, Bret (July 2, 2009). "'Special Report' Panel on Potential GOP Contenders for 2012 Presidential Race". FOXNews.com. Retrieved July 8, 2009.
  16. ^ Memoli, Mike (June 10, 2009). "In Iowa, Huckabee Calls For "Clarity Of Conservative Principles"". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved June 25, 2009.
  17. ^ Lewis, Bob (December 10, 2008). "La. Gov. Jindal: 2012 presidential bid unlikely". Fox News Channel. Retrieved June 10, 2009.
  18. ^ Emery, Marc (November 16, 2008) "Gary Johnson for President in 2012", Western Standard.ca. Retrieved on August 5, 2009.
  19. ^ Volpe, Paul (July 3, 2009). "Palin To Resign, Focus on Presidential Run". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 3, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  20. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (March 2, 2009). "No third run by Ron Paul for the White House?". CNN. Retrieved June 10, 2009.
  21. ^ Bedard, Paul (June 12, 2009). "Minnesota's Pawlenty May Challenge Obama for President in 2012". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved June 18, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  22. ^ Martin, Jonathan (May 7, 2008). "Another entrant for 2012/2016?". The Politico. Retrieved June 14, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  23. ^ Bumiller, Elizabeth (October 4, 2009). "Voice of Bush's Pentagon Becomes Harder to Hear". New York Times. Retrieved October 5, 2009. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  24. ^ "Is Romney the man to save GOP in 2012?". CNN. November 13, 2008. Retrieved June 15, 2009.
  25. ^ Martin, Jonathan (August 11, 2009)"Rick Santorum dips toes in 2012 Iowa waters", Politico.com. Retrieved on August 11, 2009.
  26. ^ "Wikinews interviews Kent Mesplay, Green Party presidential candidate". Wikinews. Wikimedia Foundation. June 29, 2008.
  27. ^ Meyer, Jim (June 1, 2009)"Wayne Root Launches Libertarian Radio Show", NewsMax.com. Retrieved on August 5, 2009.
  28. ^ http://colorblinddj.bravehost.com/Column/2009/Ted_Weill.html
  29. ^ Schwab, Nikki (May 2, 2009) "Nader: Obama Ignores Me and Other Progressives", U.S News & World Report online. Retrieved on August 6, 2009.
  30. ^ Dann, Carrie (June 18, 2009). "Jesse Ventura 2012?". MSNBC. Retrieved December 28, 2008.
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