2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

Republican presidential primaries, 2012

States in blue are the early states that will vote first, states in orange are the small states that will vote second, states in green, purple and gold are the large states that will vote either third, fourth or fifth, rotating every election cycle.

Incumbent President Barack Obama Democratic

The Republican presidential primaries for the United States presidential election, 2012 will be held in the 2012 calendar year and be used to determine the presidential nominee of the Republican Party.

Calendar Schedule

Ohio Plan

The Republican Party decided in 2008 to implement an Ohio Plan that would divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.

Convention

Though no plans have been finalized about which date or location in which the 2012 Republican National Convention will take place, it has been speculated that Republicans will take a usual late convention approach and schedule a convention after the London 2012 Olympics (whose closing ceremonies are scheduled to take place on August 12, 2012.) Traditionally, the party which holds the White House is the last to hold its convention, which means that in 2012 the Republican Convention will likely be held prior to the 2012 Democratic National Convention. There has been a trend during recent cycles of having the conventions very late in the summer: indeed, the last two Republican conventions took place in early September rather than July or August.

Several cities have been suggested as planning for a 2012 Convention bid including:

• Indianapolis, Indiana
• Atlanta, Georgia
• San Antonio, Texas
• Tampa, Florida

Possible Republican candidates

No person has announced his or her intention to run for the Republican Party presidential nomination in the 2012 election. As the primaries have not yet begun, it is too early to definitively determine who will run. The following are individuals who may or may not have an interest in running for President as the Republican nominee in 2012. The list contains individuals who have either publicly expressed interest in a candidacy or whose prospects of making a 2012 presidential run have been discussed in articles by pundits and journalists in the last six months. Potential candidates will be listed if they are the subject of speculation in no less than two prominent media sources that are less than six months old. The following individuals are listed in order of the date of the most recent media citation. This page was last updated November 21, 2009

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York		November 18, 2009: Julie Mason, Washington Examiner White House Correspondent wrote an article, "Welcome back, Rudy Giuliani". Mason said, "Why should Huckaboom and Sarah Palin get all the attention? America's Mayor has been conspicuously absent from general speculation about 2012. Mostly, he seemed adrift, a man without a reason. But -- behold! Rudy is resurgent -- turning up all over cable and today, and RNC conference call with reporters, fulminating against plans to put Khalid Sheik Mohammed on trial in Manhattan." November 19, 2009: New York Daily News writers, Kenneth Lovett, Elizabeth Benjamin, and David Saltonstall, wrote an article, Rudy Giuliani will very likely seek U.S. Senate seat, and if elected maybe 2012 White House. The writers commented that "Giuliani could use a Senate seat as a stepping stone to run for President in 2012 - rather than run for re-election to the Senate." November 20, 2009: Chris Good of The Atlantic wrote an article, What Giuliani 2012 Would Look Like. Good commented that "If Giuliani entered a Republican primary field, it would, unavoidably, introduce a very significant element into the campaign: he would be the only Republican presidential candidate not running hard to the right. Running a second time around, that strategy would likely go out the window. While Giuliani said he should have run harder in Iowa, New Hampshire might prove a better fit, given that he's more recognizable in the Northeast. But Giuliani knows how to run a national campaign. He's pro-business, and his talking points include slashing the New York City budget and incentivizing businesses to hire more workers through tax cuts. It probably won't be Giuliani's season. Most of the energy on the right involves conservatism--and ideological conservatism at that. Giuliani's main selling point is his competence as a manager. That's not at a premium right now among conservatives--but you never know whether or not it will be in 2012, especially if the rest of President Obama's first term goes badly.".
Former Governor Gary E. Johnson of New Mexico		October 27, 2009: During the "24 Hour Newsroom" segment on 770 KKOB AM (Albuquerque, NM) radio, it was reported that "a grass roots group is urging former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson to run for President. The 56-year-old ex-Governor says the group, who set up a 'Johnson For America' web site, is well intentioned. Still, Johnson isn't saying whether or not he'll jump into the 2012 presidential campaign. ... He's busy setting up a tax-exempt committee and will soon have his own web site to 'speak out on issues of the day.'" November 5, 2009: Interviewed by Gadi Schwartz of New Mexico's KOB News 4 television station, Johnson stated that he is not legally allowed to comment on whether or not he will run for President in 2012, due to his being in the process of forming a 527 committee to raise money and speak out on issues of the day. November 19, 2009: When asked if he would run for President on the KUNM news show, Johnson responded that he is flattered by all the grassroots supporters calling him to run for President, but cannot make a statement one way or another as long as he is affiliated with his 527 Our America PAC.
Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana		October 18, 2009: Eric Bradner of the Evansville Courier and Press wrote that "predicting a wide-open 2012 Republican presidential primary field, former Vice President Dan Quayle thinks Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels should consider running. "He'd certainly be fully qualified, very competitive," Quayle said during a visit to Indiana's Statehouse last week. "He could possibly be the nominee."" October 25, 2009: Jack Colwell of the South Bend Tribune wrote that "Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels says he has been on the same path as that traversed by President Barack Obama. No, not that path — not the path to the White House. In an interview in his Statehouse office, Daniels said he never imagined himself as president. Nor, he said, will mention of him by some prominent Republicans at the national level stir his imagination and send him on a path to Iowa and New Hampshire. "Now we know where the bottom of the barrel is," Daniels quipped of suggestions that he could be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012.Daniels also scoffed at the prospect of being selected as a vice presidential nominee, calling it "wildly improbable" and a decision to be made by somebody not even to be known until mid-2012. But if the presidential nominee and party leaders said they needed him on the ticket to help the party and the country, what would he say? "I'd tell them they had rocks in their head," Daniels replied in the self-effacing way he has responded to all the national speculation. Seriously, though, wouldn't it be hard for anybody to say "no" to such a plea? "I suppose," he said. "Anybody. But it's such a long shot." November 17, 2009: RealClearPolitics included Daniels on its list of "GOP Dark Horses for 2012", adding: "With a resume that includes both political and policy posts at the local, state and national level, Mitch Daniels arguably boasts the strongest experience of any Republican in the country."
Former Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska		November 4, 2009: Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic edited an article, Sarah From Alaska: The Truth And 2012. In the article Ambinder asks, Does she want to run for president in 2012?. The response was "We both strongly believe that she will at least explore the possibility of running for president in 2012. She has not been very coy about her presidential ambitions, saying more than once that she would "crash through" any doors that might open for her on the road to the White House. She thinks she represents the deeply conservative Republican base--the people whom she really does seem to believe represent the "real America." It does not seem that she realizes just how polarizing she really is. It's important to remember that she spoke to adoring crowds of tens of thousands of people who hung on her every word during the 2008 campaign, and she will do the same thing on her upcoming book tour. Sarah Palin is someone who is heavily impacted by perceptions she gains from what she sees with her own eyes." November 16, 2009: Politics Daily Columnist, Walter Shapiro, wrote an article, How Palin Could Win the 2012 GOP Nomination. Shapiro says, "The secret of Palin's presidential potential is the Republican Party's affection for winner-take-all primaries. According to my friend Elaine Kamarck's invaluable new book, Primary Politics, 43 percent of the 2008 Republican delegates were selected in primaries where the winner corralled all the delegates by winning a state or congressional district. As a result of the Republicans' to-the-victor-go-the-spoils method of picking convention delegates, Mike Huckabee finished second in 16 states and won a paltry 74 delegates for his trouble. But Palin would not be a lucky fringe candidate who won a caucus or two; she would be a universally known charismatic figure who could beat the party establishment in this conservative state.Since the Republicans allow winner-take-all primaries but do not mandate them, it will be intriguing if major states decide to change their rules about how they will award convention delegates in 2012. Jiggering with the primaries might be the first manifestation of a top-down Stop Palin movement. Otherwise, winner-take-all Republican primaries may speed the nomination of the most polarizing presidential nominee since the Democrats picked George McGovern in 1972." November 16, 2009 2:28 PM Andy Barr of Politico wrote about Sarah Palin's appearance on the Oprah Winfrey Show. Barr commented that "when asked about her plans for 2012, Palin said that a presidential run in two years is 'not on my radar screen right now. 'I am dealing with so many issues that are important to me,' she said. “What I am seeing every day is that you don’t need a title to be important.'". If nominated and elected, she would be the first woman and first Alaskan to become President of the United States.
Former Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming		September 22, 2009: Sam Stein of Huffington Post "Discusses Cheney 2012, Condoleezza Rice's Afghanistan Comments On The Rachel Maddow Show". October 18, 2009: Paul Abrams of The Huffington Post wrote that "Barring illness, Dick Cheney will be the Republican Presidential nominee in 2012." November 17, 2009: RealClearPolitics listed Cheney as one of the "GOP Dark Horses for 2012",adding: "nothing would match the drama of an Obama - Cheney general election cage match. It would be a hard hitting but extremely substantive debate over the biggest issues the country has faced since 9/11 and continues to face moving forward.Too bad it almost certainly won't happen." Cheney was born on January 30, 1941 . If nominated and elected, he would be 71 on Inauguration Day 2013, and 75 at the completion of his first term. He would thus be older than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Ronald Reagan, who was just short of 70).
Representative Ron Paul of Texas		October 17, 2009: Andrew Leonard, writing in Salon.com, pondered: "was Ron Paul suggesting that he's ready for another run at the gold ring (U.S. presidency) in 2012?" in analyzing recent public comments made by Paul, who was a contender for the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. October 19, 2009: Katharine Trendacosta of Air America wrote that "It may only be 2009, but Ron Paul is already heading to Iowa. And he's not even the first Republican 2012 hopeful to set his sights on the Hawkeye State." She further opined that Paul seems "to be running under the assumption that the early bird gets the worm." November 14, 2009: Michael O'Brien, reporting for The Hill, quoted Paul as saying it's "too early" to decide whether or not he will make another presidential run in 2012. O'Brien further mentioned that Paul made these comments "in Iowa, the starting point for a presidential campaign". Paul was born on August 20, 1935. If nominated and elected, he would be 77 on Inauguration Day 2013, and 81 at the completion of his first term. He would thus be more than 7 years older than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Ronald Reagan, who was just short of 70) and more than 3 years older than any President has been at any inauguration (Reagan was just short of 74 at his second inauguration) .
Former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas		October 17, 2009: NewsMax wrote an article titled, "Huckabee Leads 2012 Poll". The article notes "Twenty-nine percent of Republican voters nationwide say former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is their pick to represent the GOP in the 2012 presidential campaign." October 27, 2009: Andy Barr of Politico wrote an article, "Mike Huckabee steers PAC to 2012 swing states". October 28, 2009: Foon Rhee of the The Boston Globe wrote an article, "Huckabee passes Palin in 2012 poll". Rhee went on to say "In a very early read on the potential GOP presidential field for 2012, new poll results out this morning puts former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at the head of the pack. The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey found former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin in second, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in third, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty a distant fourth among Republicans, who were asked who they were most likely to support."
Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota		October 7, 2009: Kevin Diaz and Rachel E. Stassen-Berger of the Star Tribune wrote "Gov. Tim Pawlenty, mulling a White House run in 2012, will head next month to the historical proving ground for most start-up presidential campaigns -- Iowa." October 21, 2009: Larry Kudlow of CNBC wrote "is the dollar's demise a sign of global declinism for America? Will this decline blow up the bull market economic recovery? Joining me to discuss last night was distinguished Minnesota Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty. Mr. Pawlenty also happens to be a leading GOP presidential contender for 2012." October 27, 2009: Andy Barr of Politco wrote an article, "Tim Pawlenty: Barack Obama projecting 'weakness'". Barr went onto write "Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty criticized President Barack Obama on Monday for "projecting potential weakness" on national security. "History proves that it is weakness, not strength, that tempts our enemies," the Republican governor said during an interview with the conservative news outlet Newsmax. Pawlenty has mostly confined his criticism of the president to domestic issues. But the potential 2012 presidential candidate told the news organization that Obama “is projecting potential weakness, and enemies may see that and their respect may be reduced as a result of that, or worse."
Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina	File:Governor Mark Sanford Jobs and Growth Tour.jpg	September 3, 2009: The Economist wrote that, "the governor has rejected all calls to step down. Instead he is stepping up travel around the state, asking forgiveness for his lapses and announcing that his priority is now to restructure state government. The governor, who was once considered a likely presidential contender in 2012, says he does not intend to run for any other political post once his term expires in January 2011. No one is begging him to change his mind." October 25, 2009: The Sun News wrote of "Sanford's Hits and Misses" and in references to older articles implies that some still believe Mark Sanford could still run for President in 2012. October 26, 2009: The Miami Herald ran an article titled "Calendar shows Sanford fell out of love with his state, too." The article noted that "Sanford's second-term calendar has been dominated by media interviews -- about his opposition to the Obama administration's stimulus spending and his possible 2012 presidential ambitions"
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia		August 3, 2009: According to NewsMax, "Newt Gingrich’s political group, quietly pulled in $8.1 million in the first half of the year", but they also reported that according to Politico "the former speaker of the House's group has at least 17 employees, however Gingrich’s aides said the group is not a campaign-in-waiting for Gingrich, who makes many short lists of prospective 2012 GOP presidential contenders." October 25, 2009: Patricia Murphy of Politics Daily wrote that "Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker and perennial big thinker in the Republican party, said this morning that he will likely run for president in 2012 if he and his wife, Callista, assess the field of candidates in 2011 and feel "a requirement as citizens that we run." His comments came during an interview on C-SPAN's Washington Journal this morning. The full exchange and video are below.C-SPAN: "If you were to run, what factors would you take into account? What would lead you to think about running?"GINGRICH: "Callista and I are going to think about this in February 2011. And we are going to reach out to all of our friends around the country. And we'll decide, if there's a requirement as citizens that we run, I suspect we probably will. And if there's not a requirement, if other people have filled the vacuum, I suspect we won't."
Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.		September 15, 2009: Ben Smith of Politico wrote that "Rick Santorum affirmed on an RNC conference call -- aimed at attacking Arlen Specter -- that he's considering a run for president in 2012 -- because, he said, the Obama presidency is "injurious to America." "The dynamic has changed," Santorum said. "A lot of folks who might not have thought about running against an incumbent president" are now considering it." October 1, 2009: NewsMax and Associated Press quoted Santorum as saying "he says he hasn't decided whether he'll seek the Republican nomination for president in 2012 but one reason he accepted an invitation to speak in Iowa was because he wants to help guide the party's future. October 24, 2009: The Lincoln Tribune wrote that former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum will be visiting North Carolina on Monday, October 26th, 2009 and will finish his visit at a fundraiser for Republicans in North Carolina’s 10th Congressional District at Verdict Ridge Country Club in Denver, North Carolina at 6:00 p.m. With national media already speculating on his interest in running for President in 2012, this event offers North Carolina’s political insiders an early look at a potential candidate for the White House and will showcase a number of who’s who of likely GOP candidates in Lincoln and surrounding counties for the 2010 elections. Santorum recently said that only a sharply conservative Republican message can "stem the tide" of change President Barack Obama is seeking in Washington, and he wants to play a role in that debate.
Former Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts		October 14, 2009: Ramesh Ponnuru of Meridian Magazine wrote "In the early stages of the undeclared race for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney is the frontrunner. The former governor of Massachusetts has the best-developed national network of supporters of any of the potential candidates. He is the one doing the most party-building across the country; of his potential rivals, only Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty comes close. He is the one to whom other Republicans are most likely to turn for answers on economic policy, and on many issues he is the only one giving them. When the auto companies came to Washington only Romney had a plan (“Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check,” he wrote in the New York Times)." October 20, 2009: Ed Mason of the Boston Herald wrote that "Palin gets trounced by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 52 percent to 37 percent, in a new Rasmussen survey showing how the 2012 GOP presidential contenders stack up in a head-to-head battle." October 21, 2009 10:00 AM: Hillary Chabot of the Boston Herald wrote an article called, "Mitt Romney commits to Mass., not Washington". She noted that "Possible presidential contender Mitt Romney swung through the Bay State last night to give his fellow Republicans a much-needed financial boost, but the GOP power player stayed mum on whether he’ll run again in 2012."
Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana		July 22, 2009: Having been "touted as a top prospect for the GOP ticket in 2012" prior to his January speech, Chris Good of The Atlantic called his appearances and speeches over the health care debate, "The Return of Jindal". October 1, 2009: Robert A. George wrote an article, "Bobby Jindal Steps Aside (For Now)" in which he commented: "Jindal puts policy over politics. This just in: Bobby Jindal is NOT running for president in 2012. That may have already been a foregone conclusion given the poor reception that his response to President Obama's pseudo-State of the Union earlier this year. Logistically, it would have looked very difficult, given that Jindal has to run for re-election as governor in 2011." Jindal was born on June 10, 1971 . If nominated and elected, Jindal would be 41 on Inauguration Day 2013. He would thus be more than a year younger than any President has been when first inaugurated (a record held by Theodore Roosevelt, who was 42 when inaugurated after the assassination of his predecessor) and more than two years younger than any President has been when first inaugurated after being elected (a record held by John F Kennedy, who was 43).
Former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida		June 26, 2009: John Aloysius Farrell of the U.S. News & World Report commented that recent "self-destructions" by other potential candidates made a Bush run "not impossible." September 3, 2009: Dan Weil of NewsMax said, "Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he's not running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 — at least for now. Weil went to quote Bush as saying, "I'm focused on my own private life and trying to help others continue their public service," Bush said. "It's a secondary role, not a primary role, and it'll probably remain that way."
Representative Mike Pence of Indiana		June 24, 2009: Domenico Montanaro of MSNBC wrote that Pence has "made the cable rounds, but it remains to be seen if average voters could pick him out of a lineup." July 13, 2009: Congressional Quarterly reported that Pence had scheduled "a trip to Iowa starting July 25.". Pence, however, told The Des Moines Register. July 24, 2009: "I have no plans to run for president. I'm entirely focused on the people of eastern Indiana and electing as many Republicans to the U.S. House as we can. The future will take care of itself."
Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi		June 9, 2009: reported that the New Hampshire Republican State Committee had sent out an invitation to an "evening with Haley Barbour". An unnamed "GOP operative" was quoted as saying "When you start going to Iowa and New Hampshire, the writing's on the wall." June 23, 2009: Barbour said that he would "probably never" make a decision on running for president. June 25, 2009: Barbour visited Iowa again sidestepping discussion about his presidential bid until after the 2010 elections. “If after that, it seems like a reasonable thing, I will consider it... I have no intention to run for president. But I’ve been around long enough to ‘say never say never’”.

Hypothetical polling

• Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
• Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2012
• Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2012