2006 United States Senate elections
Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.
The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.
Major parties
The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont, who began voting with the Democratic caucus in 2001). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.
To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to obtain a net gain of 6 seats (if independent candidate Bernie Sanders holds Jim Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House of Representatives), or acquire a net gain of 7 seats (if Sanders loses to a Republican). If the Republicans hold exactly 50 seats after the election, the Democrats would remain in the minority, as the sitting Vice President of the United States (currently Republican Vice President Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.
To gain a "working majority" of 60 members – the number of votes required to break a Democratic filibuster – Republicans would need to net a gain of 5 seats.
Races to watch
It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired, or where the incumbent has served only one term.
Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.
Retiring Senators
Mark Dayton (D) – Minnesota
Main article : Minnesota U.S. Senate election, 2006
On February 9 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate, leaving an open seat to be contested. Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, the GOP candidate, secured major GOP endorsements and will not face any serious challengers. Kennedy has benefited greatly from high-profile Republicans coming to fund raise for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July, 2005.
On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) side, there are a half-dozen candidates seeking the DFL nomination and endorsement, but only four have declared. The current DFL front runner is Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. Veterinarian, philanthropist, and heir to a founder of General Mills, Ford Bell has also announced his candidacy. Bell will rely only on contributions to fund his campaigns. Both Wetterling and Klobuchar have promised to abide by a DFL endorsement, and Bell has not stated yet what he'll do. Minneapolis attorney Mike Ciresi, who narrowly lost to Dayton in the 2000 DFL primary, is also considering another bid.
Bill Frist (R) – Tennessee
Main article : Tennessee U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Frist, the current Majority Leader, has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for the 2008 election. This will leave an open seat, contested by Democratic candidates Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. and State Senator Rosalind Kurita. Former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, along with Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, are running in the Republican primary. Hilleary currently has a double-digit lead over Bryant and an even larger lead over Corker. In November, the independent political analytical weekly The Tennessee Journal, said a synthesis of polling shows Hilleary with a double-digit lead over Bryant and a 20-point lead over Corker. Currently Ford is leading all candidates in a recent poll, though he leads in all polls by only a few points. While some consider Tennessee to be solidly Republican, a majority of the statewide offices are held by Democrats and its electoral votes went to Clinton in both 1992 and 1996, albeit narrowly. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and sends more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans. Ford is also very popular and well known throughout the state, in part due to his Keynote Address at the 2000 Democratic National Convention.[1].
Jim Jeffords (I) – Vermont
Main article : Vermont U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20 2005, he declared he would not seek another term, possibly for health reasons. The Democratic party is unlikely to run a candidate as several leading members have already endorsed independent Representative Bernie Sanders. A November 2005 poll conducted for WCAX-TV showed Sanders leading the only Republican who has thus far expressed interest in the race--businessman Richard Tarrant--by nearly 50 percentage points. [2]Governor James "Jim" Douglas and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie both considered running but ultimately opted out.
Paul Sarbanes (D) – Maryland
Main article : Maryland U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Sarbanes announced on March 11 2005 that he would retire in 2006 rather than run for re-election. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, as Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. The Green Party's Kevin Zeese was the first to launch a U.S. Senate campaign. Zeese is a lawyer, and worked as Ralph Nader's press secretary in 2004. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume and Rep. Ben Cardin have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Most other prominent Maryland Democrats have decided not to run or are not likely to enter the race, though four other minor Democratic candidates are in the race. Mfume had great difficulty raising funds in the summer of 2005, and this may leave Cardin as the likely nominee. [3] Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25 2005, and is currently the only major contender for the Republican nomination. Steele is considered a more charismatic candidate than either Cardin or Mfume and has built broad public support, including surprising support among Democrats, during his term as Lieutenant Governor. A January 2006 Rasmussen poll showed Steele leading both Cardin and Mfume. [4]
Notable Democratic incumbent races
Main article : Connecticut U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Joseph Lieberman, a Democrat who is mostly liberal on domestic policy, has drawn fire from liberals within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of president George W. Bush and for statements that he has made in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the president" during a time of war. Many liberals are considering running a candidate against him in the democratic primary. Former three-term Senator and one-term governor Lowell Weicker, an Independent and former Republican, has stated that he may enter the senate race. Lieberman was elected to the Senate by narrowly unseating Weiker in 1988. Additionally, Jim Dean, brother of Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean, has organized a letter writing campaign with his Democracy for America organization, collecting 55,000 signatures to an open letter that has been sent to Lieberman, asking him to "stop stifling debate" on the Iraq War and "join the majority of Americans in questioning President Bush's foreign policy" [5]. A recent poll by Rasmussen Reports showed that Lieberman lead Weiker by a 54% to 32% margin, but Weiker was even with Lieberman among self-discribed liberals and polled 37% of Democrats. Lieberman relied on support from Republican voters for his wide margin. So should Weiker actually become a candidate, Republicans may give this race a second look.
Main article : Washington U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Cantwell drew fire from progressives in Washington State for many of her votes including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution and the confirmation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles with the Senate Democratic leadership on the John Murtha Resolution on Removing American armed forces from Iraq. Former CEO of Safeco Mike McGavick is the only announced GOP candidate. Cantwell has a double digit over McGavick in the polls, leading him 50 to 39 in a recent Rasmussen poll [6] Her favorable rating is climbing according to a December 12 2005 SurveyUSA poll. [7]
Main article : Florida U.S. Senate election, 2006
As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Senator Nelson will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile. Rep. Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the controversial 2000 presidential election, is the presumed favorite in a Republican primary. A November 14 Rasmussen Reports poll shows Nelson with a 52% job approval rating and a lead of 17 points against Harris (53%-36%) [8]. Current polls show Harris with a big lead in the primaries, thus Nelson has good chances of facing her. Top Republicans, including Governor Jeb Bush and those close to President Bush, are trying to find a candidate to oppose Harris in the primary as they fear she will drive up Democratic turn out due to her controversial role in the 2000 election.[9] So far, the only potential candidates floated to challenge her in the primary are Afghanistan War General Tommy Franks, Lt. Governor Toni Jennings, Congressman Mark Foley, and state House Speaker Allan Bense, though if they jumped into the race, they would be trailing in the polls severly (Harris 55, Franks 20, Jennings 8, and Foley 6) [10].
Robert Menendez (D) – New Jersey
Main article : New Jersey U.S. Senate election, 2006
Former Senator Corzine, elected in 2000, won the 2005 gubernatorial election and is the current Governor of New Jersey. Governor Corzine appointed 7 term Rep. Robert Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Senator Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18, 2006.[11].
3 year Republican state Senator Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former New Jersey Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean, announced on March 25, 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Currently, Kean is leading on the Republican side.
Notable Republican incumbent races
Main article : Nevada U.S. Senate election, 2006
John Ensign is running for re-election, however recent polls shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. The comparatively popular Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman has said he will probably try to get the Democratic nomination.[12] An Ensign-Goodman race would likely be competitive, but Goodman would first have to defeat Jack Carter, son of ex-President Jimmy Carter in the primary election. Carter doesn't have very much name recognition, and is currently trailing Ensign in the polls (33% to 48%). However, Goodman polls very close to Ensign (42.5 to 45, respectively) and within the margin of error. It should be noted that most of Nevada Democrats are in Goodman's Las Vegas, where he won with 86% of the vote the last election, providing a possible advantage in the primary election.
Main article : Virginia U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Allen is expected by many to be a possible 2008 presidential candidate, which would possibly be harmed if he were to lose (or even have a tough race) for his seat in 2006. On January 9, Harris Miller (D) of Northern Virginia declared his candidacy and filed the initial forms to challenge Senator Allen. Miller is a former trade association president and Hill staffer. Some other Democrats are rumored to make a run for the seat, including Ben Affleck and John Grisham. Gail Parker, a retired USAF Major and Pentagon budget analyst, announced her intention to run as the Green Party candidate.
Main article : Montana U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Burns faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, could make this a competitive race. Burns is also rumored to be considering retirement. State auditor John Morrison has filed papers to run for the Democratic nomination, and popular state senate president Jon Tester has announced his candidacy. Burns has lost his lead in the polls [13]. He now is dead even with State Senate President Jon Tester (45% to 45%), and only three points ahead of State Auditor John Morrison (46% to 43% respectively). The same poll also has 65% of Montanans saying that the Abramoff scandal, which many sources have Burns being the highest receiver of donations in, will be of importance to them when they vote. Another poll shows Burns with only a 45% approval rating, the second lowest in the Senate, and the highest disapproval rating in the Senate, 46%, making him one of only two Senators to have a negative Net Approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating).
Main article : Rhode Island U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Chafee, perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a primary challenge from Cranston mayor Steve Laffey. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are Secretary of State Matt Brown, former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, and former businessman Carl Sheeler. U.S. Reps. Jim Langevin and Patrick J. Kennedy have both chosen not to run. Many Republicans are angry for Chafee's "RINO"-ness, and that could cost him the primary election to the Cranston mayor. Laffey, however has come under fire from conservatives himself, having pushed tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It is widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to independent liberals.
Main article : Ohio U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator DeWine has low approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party could hurt his re-election chances. The senator's son, R. Patrick DeWine, lost the Republican nomination for the Second Congressional District, suggesting DeWine's influence may be waning. Democratic hopes have been raised by the ongoing "Coingate" scandal and the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft. DeWine could also face a tough primary challenge from several more conservative Republicans unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005.
Main article : Arizona U.S. Senate election, 2006
Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Kyl on September 14th, 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano Governor. Although Arizona voted for Bush in the last two elections, Kyl has an undistinguished career and most Arizonans know little about him. In addition, Kyl's approval rating in a recent poll was 46%. [14] Pederson hopes to capitalize on this blank slate, while Kyl plans to argue that his seniority and experience will help the state. A Rasmussen Poll from December 26, 2005 showed Pederson trailing Kyl 50% to 30% with 7% for other canidates, and 14% undecided (4.5% margin of error).[15]
Main article : Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Santorum is a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4 percent. [16] Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat from southeastern Pennsylvania. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable, and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania's state treasurer, announced his candidacy on March 5 2005. Currently, his only primary opponents are college professor Chuck Pennacchio [17] and Alan Sandals [18]. Polls pitting Casey against Santorum have generally indicated greater support for Casey. As of December 2005, Casey leads Santorum 50 to 39 percent in the polls. A Casey-Santorum race would feature two pro-life candidates, a rarity in major elections. A Casey victory would also lead to the unusual result of Pennsylvania being represented in the Senate by a pro-life Democrat (Casey) and a pro-choice Republican (Arlen Specter).
Main article : Missouri U.S. Senate election, 2006
Senator Talent, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, might face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Unlike most states, Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was elected by a very slim margin, which suggests that he might be vulnerable, and he now has a well-known challenger in Claire McCaskill, Missouri's state auditor and 2004 Democratic gubernatorial candidate. Missouri is considered a "swing" state, but McCaskill carries significant political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a failed gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. A [19] by Rasmussen Reports shows McCaskill with a lead of 3 points, an increase of 1 point from the previous poll.
Complete list of Senate contests in 2006
See also