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2006 United States House of Representatives elections

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Template:Future election Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7, 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Major parties

The House currently comprises 231 Republicans, 202 Democrats, 1 independent, and 1 vacancy (that will be filled before election day).

The Democrats would need to pick up 16 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995.

Current Speculation

Current speculation about the 2006 elections naturally runs the gamut; However, there seems to be a consistent theme in the speculation of many pundits on both sides of the aisle- it's expected to be a tough year for the Republicans who currently control the House. Several factors play into this prediction:

  • The dip of President Bush's job approval ratings below 40% according to most respected national polls during the fall of 2005.
  • Shrinking support for the Iraq war among Americans
  • The Federal Government's response to Hurricane Katrina, which many felt was disorganized and even callous
  • A variety of potential scandals involving high-profile Republicans
  • Early tracking polls specific to the elections pointing voters' favor away from the GOP.
  • Democratic wins in both New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial races and the California Special Election
  • A January 6 2006 poll highlighted by many media outlets showing that voters prefer Democrats to control Congress over Republicans by a margin of 49% to 36% respectively. [1]

Though some of these factors currently favor the Democratic Party, it is impossible to tell what will change in the months leading into an election, and there are some factors which favor the Republicans as well:

  • There is enough time between now and the elections for many of these negative factors to possibly dissipate, or for positive factors for the Republican party to assume greater importance.
  • It is much harder to defeat incumbents than it once was, largely due to widespread gerrymandering.
    • Related to this is the lack of "competitive races." As reported by Rich Lowry in National Review, the Democrats need a net gain of 15 seats to actively retake the House, and he cited Congressional Expert Charles Cook's prediction of 30 competitive races, 18 of which are held by Republicans. [2]
  • The Republican party has in recent years proven to be more effective at fundraising than its Democratic counterpart.
  • The Republican political machine has in recent years outmaneuvered the Democratic one, usually dictating the terms of engagement and efficiently exploiting "wedge issues," though the effectiveness of this in the current environment is debatable.

We may soon gain a clearer picture of the electorate in the months leading into the election.

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed below, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances listed above.

Open Seats

Arizona

  • Arizona's eighth district — Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006 [3]. His district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for 2 decades, often with high margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a social conservative stronghold. Ex-Air Force fighter pilot Jeff Latas is running for the seat as a Democrat. Republican Randy Graf, a former State Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, is also running. Kolbe's recent exit means that other candidates besides Graf and Latas will take advantage of the opportunity to enter the race, such as Democratic former State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords, who resigned from the Arizona legislature on December 1, 2005 in preparation for a Congressional campaign.

California

  • California's fiftieth district — (Technically, this is not a retiring representative's seat: by November 7, 2006, there should be an incumbent representative.) Following ethical questions about Republican Duke Cunningham's dealings with a defense contractor, Cunningham announced on July 14, 2005 that he would not seek a ninth term in the House. Later, on November 28, 2005, he resigned his house seat after confessing to taking more than $2.4 million in bribes from the defense contractor. A special election to fill the vacancy will be held on April 11, 2006. The winner of that election will likely then vie for their first complete term in the 2006 elections. This district includes the northern suburbs of San Diego and leans Republican. Candidates include on the Republican side former State Assemblymen Howard Kooligian, State Senator Bill Morrow, and businessman Alan Uke. The Democrats currently have college professor Francine Busby running. Busby garnered 37% against Cunningham's 58% in 2004.

Colorado

Florida

  • Florida's ninth district — Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, but few expect this seat to be competitive as it is a heavily Republican district located on Florida's Gulf coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirikas, has announced that he will run for his father's seat and appears to be the front runner. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democrat nominee.

Hawaii

Idaho

  • Idaho's first district — Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for governor, and his seat is expected to be safe for any Republican. The district contains more or less the north and western portions of the state and is almost 70% Republican. State Controller Keith Johnson, former state Senator Sheila Sorensen, Canyon County Commissioner Robert Vasquez, and state Senator Skip Brandt are among Republicans competing for the seat. Attorney Larry Grant and North Idaho businessman Cecil Kelly are running on the Democratic side.

Illinois

Iowa

Maryland

Minnesota

  • Minnesota's sixth district — Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. Republican candidates for the House seat include State Representatives Jim Knoblach and Phil Krinkie State Senator Michele Bachmann and St. Cloud buisnessman Jay Esmay. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat, but recently committed to run for the Senate instead. The current Democratic candidates for MN-6 include Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former mayor of Blaine, Minnesota and a former minister; and Scott Mortensen, an Internet auto sales manager and a former assistant minister. Tinklenberg is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which called this one of their best opportunities to pick up a House seat - although Tinklenberg, who served as Minnesota's transportation commissioner under independent Jesse Ventura, notoriously makes little if any reference to the Democratic party in his campaign. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties.

Nebraska

Nevada

  • Nevada's second district — Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. His wife, State Assemblywomen Dawn Gibbons, has expressed interest in running for his seat, as has Secretary of State Dean Heller and Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican. Even so, the district tends vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far.

New Jersey

New York

Ohio

  • Ohio's fourth district — Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not had a Democrat represent the Area since 1937, however with the recent "Coingate" scandal crippling the party and the fact Oxley was held under 60% suggests this could be a competitive race. Republican state Senator Jim Jordan and Richland County Commissioner Ed Olson are the only announced candidates for the open seat.
  • Ohio's thirteenth district — Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is challenging Republican Senator Mike DeWine (he faces a primary battle with Paul Hackett). His district, in the Lorain/Akron area, has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. Democrats who have announced include former Congressman Tom Sawyer and former state Representative Betty Sutton. The only announced Republican candidate is businessman Joe Ortega.

Oklahoma

Tennessee

  • Tennessee's ninth district — Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist. Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.

Vermont

  • Vermont's at large district — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Sanders is very popular in the state, and his seat should remain in either Independent or Democratic hands, as Vermont voted for John Kerry 59% to 40% over George W. Bush in 2004. Vermont State Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welsh (D-Windsor County), and Martha Rainville (R), adjutant general of the Vermont National Guard, are vying for the seat although Rainville has yet to fully state her intention to run. Also campaigning for the seat is Republican businessman Dennis Morrisseau, who has promised to bring articles of impeachment against President George W. Bush, something that may heavily complicate matters in both the Republican primary, if he wins, or in the general election, if he loses and decides to run as an independent.[4]

Wisconsin

Notable incumbent races

It is not clear which incumbents will face difficult or close races. However, based on the results of 2004, one can make a few projections.

There are districts where incumbents may be vulnerable. These include:

California

  • California's eleventh district — Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. However, Pombo has used his chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee to pursue an aggressive program of anti-environmental legislation, including a draft bill that would have repealed the Endangered Species Act; the considerable amount of negative attention this has drawn from supporters of the environment may spur particular efforts to vote Pombo out of office. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election; he launched his campaign for the 2006 election early in 2005, ensuring that his campaign will be better prepared and pose a more formidable challenge this time around. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson, is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Additionally, Pombo may be challenged for the Republican nomination by former Rep. Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act.
  • California's forty-first district — Longtime incumbent Jerry Lewis (R) won reelection in 2004 by a very comfortable 83 to 17% margin -to Libertarian Peymon Mottahedeh. Because of possible misconduct as Appropriations Committee Chair, Democrats are focusing more on this district as they attempt to link Lewis closer to the Abramoff scandal. As of now, Lewis faces a challenge from Democrat, Louis Contreras in 2006 who is backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

Colorado

  • Colorado's third district — Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50-47 margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) seat nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican Businessman Scott Tipton is planning to run.

Connecticut

  • Connecticut's second district — Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) won reelection with 54% of the vote in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. 2002 nominee Joe Courtney is planning another run.
  • Connecticut's fourth district — Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. 2004 nominee Diane Farrell is challenging Shays again. Additionally, there is reportedly significant support, among those in his party who are dissatisfied with his moderate stance, for a more conservative Republican to challenge Shays in the Republican primary - a move that, if it succeeded, would dramatically raise the chances for a Democrat to win the general election. However, no other Republican as yet has announced an intention to run.
  • Connecticut's fifth district — Although Incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge in 2002 where she won with just 54%, she is still a Republican in an increasingly Democratic leaning district. John Kerry won the district in 2004 and Al Gore won it when it she represented the 6th District in 2000.

Florida

  • Florida's twenty-second district — Incumbent Clay Shaw (R) has been elected to twelve terms in the house and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970's. He is seeking reelection to his seat. But many Democrats hope that this time around it will be unlucky number 13. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000, from state Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf, and scored a somewhat easier reelections in 2002, and 2004. But now he is once again a top target of the Democrats this time State Senator Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close as Klein is a good fundraiser, and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004, winning 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush by a margin of 51-49. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 died before the election.

Georgia

Illinois

  • Illinois's eighth district — Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. A large field of Republican candidates are planning to run against her.

Indiana

  • Indiana's eighth district — Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth is running against incumbent John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating. A recent poll from a Democratic but accurate (got the county's 2004 by a few percentage points) polling company has Ellsworth leading Hostettler 44% to 41% Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[5]

Iowa

  • Iowa's second district — Incumbent Jim Leach (R) is one of the most, if not the most liberal Republican in the House of Representatives; his district is considered to be a target as it is known be Democratic-leaning.
  • Iowa's third district — Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close reelection in 2004 in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jim Lamberti plans to challenge him. Boswell has suffered severe health problems, which could factor into the race.

Kansas

Kentucky

  • Kentucky's second district — Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver, whose background in business and the military make it hard to portray him as a liberal.
  • Kentucky's third district — Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2000 Al Gore won her congressional district very easily. Although she did win with 60% in 2004, it was mostly because Democrats did not pour enough money into the race.
  • Kentucky's sixth district — Strong victories in a 2003 special election to fill the Congressional seat of now-Governor Ernie Fletcher and in the 2004 election make Incumbent Ben Chandler (D) difficult to beat in a district known for supporting incumbency. Chandler could face difficulty, however, if speculation increases that he may pursue being Governor of Kentucky in 2007.

Louisiana

  • Louisiana's third district — In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His district is a conservative-leaning one in the southeast of Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of less effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who narrowly lost the primary in 2004.
  • Louisiana's seventh district — Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to John in the 1996 runoff.

Michigan

  • Michigan's ninth district — Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent by over a 10 to one ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than impressive. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is by no means a Republican stronghold. As of yet, the only candidate for the Democratic nomination to have a website is Rhonda Ross, a resident of Royal Oak, Michigan (http://www.ross4congress.org). John Ashcraft of Troy, Michigan has also filed to run. Ashcraft's experience in automotive marketing has helped him to raise more money than other candidates in the race.

Minnesota

  • Minnesota's second district — Incumbent John Kline (R) got a relatively easy win in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, but things will likely be very different in 2006. Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence is already garnering media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting in 2002 caused his defeat by Kline). Teresa Daly, who was the Democratic candidate against Kline in 2004, has not yet commented on whether she would run again. Daly's 2004 campaign manager responded to Rowley's announced candidacy by saying he "would not be surprised" if Daly decided to run again; however, at a post-election farewell soiree for her campaign workers in 2004, in private conversation, Daly suggested she felt disinclined to make another attempt.

Montana

  • Montana's at-large district — Although incumbent Dennis Rehberg (R) won with 64% in 2004 and is generally popular, he is considered to be potentially vulnerable due to Montana having swung over to the Democratic Party as it elected a Democratic Governor and also handed control of the State Legislature over to the Democrats in 2004. He will be opposed by state Representative Monica Lindeen. Rehberg also has to contend with the fact Montana's Senator Conrad Burns is facing an extremely tough re-election race in 2006. There is also speculation that Burns will drop his reelection bid, due to bad publicity regarding his ties to indicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Should that happen, many expect Rehberg will run for the Senate to succeed Burns.

Nevada

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's second district — Frank LoBiondo (R) won with 65% of the vote last time, however, he had broken a pledge made back in 1994 that he would only serve 6 terms. Also, two of the Democratic pickups in the 2005 assembly race were in districts entirely contained within LoBiondo's district as well as Corzine's landslide victory in several major counties located entirely within the 2nd makes for a potentially competitive race. Robin Benjamin Weinstein, a clergyman and a legislative aide, is running against him. Lobiondo has also received money from corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff and convicted corrupt lobbyist Michael Scanlon.
  • New Jersey's fifth district — Scott Garrett (R) won with only 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in a normally Republican district. His extreme right-wing political views have also been the subject of much controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina Victims. Wolfe is planning another challenge to Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity.

New Mexico

  • New Mexico's first district — Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed narrow reelections since 1998, but in 2006 she will likely face Democrat Patricia Madrid, who is barred from seeking a third term as New Mexico's Attorney General. Madrid would undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive and was won by John Kerry.

New York

  • New York's twenty-sixth district — Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist Jack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign
  • New York's twenty-seventh district — In 2004, incumbent Brian Higgins (D) edged his Republican challenger, Erie County Controller Nancy Naples, by 51% to 49% to replace retiring moderate Republican Congressman Jack Quinn. Republicans look to take back what is a marginally Democratic district with the former Congressman's son Jack Quinn III, who in 2004 was elected as a State Assemblyman. However, Quinn III doesn't have the ties to organized labor his father had, and therefore pulling off the upset in his Democratic district will be tough. Additionally, Republican efforts to court former Buffalo Bills Quarterback Jim Kelly to run seem unlikely to succeed.
  • New York's twenty-ninth district — Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark. There have been rumors that Kuhl is considering not running for re-election; however, as of December 2005, these have proven unsubstantiated.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina's eighth district — Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. However, his opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% to 44% is a remarkably narrow margin. His district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. An issue might be made of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which could severely hurt textile jobs in his district. Hayes vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration.

Ohio

  • Ohio's first district — Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) is part of the large contingent of Republicans elected in 1994, when he unseated an incumbent. He is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley, who ran a respectable race against him in 2000. Chabot has fought off well-financed challenges in the past, but the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft nearly elected a Democrat in the far more Republican 2nd. District, which borders this one. The district, which takes in most of Cincinnati, is marginal and has elected both Democrats and Republicans in the past.
  • Ohio's second district — This district is traditionally Republican, and has been estimated as the 57th safest Republican seat in the country, but in a special election in 2005, Jean Schmidt (R) only narrowly won (by 3.5%) against a strong challenge by Democrat Paul Hackett. The surprisingly narrow margin in a race many took for granted at the outset may make her re-election tougher than normal, and her recent inflammatory remarks in the House suggesting that long-time Democratic hawk and war veteran John Murtha is a coward will no doubt be used against her on the campaign trail. Support for a Democrat may continue to gain momentum in the continuing fallout from the Coingate scandal embroiling the Ohio Republican establishment. It's also possible that she will be challenged in the Republican primary by former Congressman Bob McEwen.
  • Ohio's fifteenth district — This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R) has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps her close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, possibly her strongest opponent to date. Pryce is also the Chair of the Republican Conference.
  • Ohio's eighteenth district — Although incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won his district since 1994, it is believed Democrats are targeting him for defeat due to his less than stellar ethics record. He faces a strong challenger in Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer, a former state Representative and Vietnam War veteran. He's also admitted involvement with the Jack Abramoff's scandal and has been identified as the unnamed represenitive implicated by Abramoff's plea bargain.

Oregon

  • Oregon's fourth district — Although Peter DeFazio (D) has won with solid support in his last 4 elections, each time he has lost support. There are now rumors that the Congressman may not run in 2006 for reelection. Republicans are sure to pounce on this opportunity, and currently Marketing Executive and Navy Veteran Jim Feldkamp is planning to run again after his defeat in 2004.

Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's eleventh district —Paul Kanjorski (D) ran unopposed in 2004, but in 2002 faced his toughest race yet. Republicans may pose a serious challenge to this seat as John Kerry only won his traditionally Democratic district with 52% of the vote.
  • Pennsylvania's thirteenth district — Allyson Schwartz (D) is a freshman Congressman, and won her first election with 56% of the vote. However, what makes this race particularly interesting is rumors that Apprentice contestant Raj Bhakta may be planning a run against her as a Republican. If he decides to run, he could make Schwartz's next election a little more uncomfortable with the popularity of The Apprentice being what it is.

South Carolina

  • South Carolina's fifth district — John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman.

South Dakota

  • South Dakota's at large district — Stephanie Herseth (D) was elected to the House in a special election in 2004 and again in the 2004 general election, but owing to South Dakota's heavily conservative electorate and the defeat of fellow Democrat Tom Daschle, her seat is by no means safe. Then again, Herseth is wildly popular, with approval ratings in the 70's.

Texas

  • Texas's tenth district — Incumbent Michael McCaul (R), who won easily last time due to no Democratic opposition (his opponent, a Libertarian, won less than 20% of the vote), will face a much tougher challenger in that of 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate, Michael Badnarik, and the recent Democratic strategy of challenging all seats means that the Democrats may run a candidate here as well, drawing votes from both McCaul and Badnarik. The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast Texas from Austin to Harris County outside Houston.
  • Texas's twenty-second district — Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) has been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges in recent months, and won reelection by a surprisingly small 55-41 margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64%. On September 28, 2005, DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. As a result, he was forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. DeLay will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district he dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting. Lampson's former district contained much of the area of DeLay's present district. In addition, Republican former Congressman Steve Stockman intends to run as an independent, which could draw support from DeLay. A poll conducted by the Houston Chronicle in January of 2006 has Lampson leading DeLay 30% to 22%, with 11% of voters supporting Independent Candidate Stockman [7].

Utah

  • Utah's second district — Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won a close reelection in 2004, his district includes much of heavily Republican southern Utah, but also heavily Democratic Salt Lake City, and he is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) is rumored to be planning a run. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70's.

Virginia

  • Virginia's second district — In 2004, after representative Ed Schrock withdrew from seeking a third term, then-State Delegate Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the Republican ballot and was elected 55-45 against attorney and Marine Corps reservist David Ashe, who is running again this cycle. In addition, Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phil Kellam has also filed papers to run. Kellam is arguably Virginia Beach's most popular Democrat, and could quickly put this seat into play.

Washington

Wisconsin

  • Wisconsin's third district — This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election 56% to 44%, a less than spectacular margin for the 2004 race, against state Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz, and the state of Wisconsin favored John Kerry for president. The western edge of the District is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area; fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. So far, the only declared Republican candidate for Kind's spot is Paul Nelson, a real estate agent (like Schultz) and former Marine.
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