2012 United States gubernatorial elections

United States gubernatorial elections, 2012
13 governorships
	File:Governors 2012.png Light red: Term-limited Republican; Dark red: Incumbent Republican; Light blue: Term-limited or Retiring Democrat; Dark blue: Incumbent Democrat; Gray: no election

The United States gubernatorial elections of 2012 will be held in eleven states and two territories concurrent with other elections during the United States General election of 2012.

Predictions

The position of Lieutenant Governor, unless otherwise stated, is elected on the same ticket as the gubernatorial nominee.

Source	Safe Democratic	Likely Democratic	Leans Democratic	Tossup	Leans Republican	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
Consensus among all predictions							Utah
The Cook Political Report as of January 20, 2011 (updates)	Delaware	Vermont Washington	New Hampshire West Virginia	Missouri Montana North Carolina		Indiana	North Dakota
FiveThirtyEight.com
Governing as of December 2, 2010 (updates)			Delaware Missouri New Hampshire Vermont	Washington West Virginia	Montana North Carolina	Indiana North Dakota
RealClearPolitics
The Rothenberg Political Report as of April 1, 2011 (updates)	Delaware New Hampshire Vermont	Washington	Missouri West Virginia	Montana	Indiana North Carolina	North Dakota
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball as of June 7, 2011 (updates)	Delaware Vermont	Missouri	New Hampshire West Virginia	North Carolina Washington	Montana	Indiana	North Dakota

Retiring and term-limited Democratic incumbents

Brian Schweitzer (Montana)

Governor Brian Schweitzer will be term-limited in 2012.

So far, the only declared Democratic candidates are campaign treasurer Ronald J. Lassle,^[1] and state Senator David Wanzenried.^[2] Other potential candidates in the Democratic field include state Attorney General Steve Bullock,^[1] and Transportation Director Jim Lynch.^[3]^[4] Former U.S. Representative Pat Williams has declined to run.^[5]

Chouteau County commissioner Jim O'Hara,^[6] former state Senators Corey Stapleton and Ken Miller, terrorism and national security analyst Neil Livingstone,^[1] and former Congressman Rick Hill are the declared Republican candidates.^[7] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senators Jim Peterson and Bob Story and Businessman Dean Folkword.^[3] Businessman Steve Daines and Representative Denny Rehberg, who were speculated to be candidates, will instead run for the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate respectively.^[8]

A Public Policy Polling poll conducted November 10–13, 2010 showed that in a match-up between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat, a generic Republican would lead 49-39. In a potential head to head matchup between announced Republican Rick Hill and potential Democrat Steve Bullock, Hill leads 41-31. The poll surveyed 1,176 voters with a +/- 2.9% MOE.^[9]

Christine Gregoire (Washington)

Governor Christine Gregoire will retire rather than run for re-election.^[10]

Potential Democratic candidates include state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown, King County Executive Dow Constantine, state Treasurer Jim McIntire, Auditor General Brian Sonntag, U.S. Representative Jay Inslee, and Snohomish County Executive Aaron Reardon.^[11]

State Attorney General Rob McKenna, U.S. Representative Dave Reichert, and Seattle Port Commission President Bill Bryant are speculated to be potential Republican candidates.^[11]^[12] Former state Senator Dino Rossi, who ran unsuccessfully for governor twice in the previous gubernatorial elections and is now working at Everett based commercial real estate firm Coast Equity Partners, has not ruled out running again.^[13]

The Lieutenant Governor will be elected separately.

Term-limited Republican incumbent

Mitch Daniels (Indiana)

Governor Mitch Daniels will be term-limited in 2012.

Mike Pence, a Republican currently serving his sixth term in the U.S. House of Representatives, has announced his candidacy for his party's nomination. Pence, whose announcement was anticipated by his resignation of a leading position in the GOP caucus in the House, is regarded as the favorite for election.^[14]

Indianapolis businessman and former Hamilton County Councilman Jim Wallace had previously announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination.^[15]^[16] Other potential Republican candidates include former state Attorney General Steve Carter, current Indianapolis Mayor Gregory A. Ballard, conservative activist Eric Miller,^[17] Indiana Superintendent of Public Education Tony Bennett, state House Speaker Brian Bosma, State Senate President David Long, and state GOP chairman Murray Clark.

Potential candidates in the Democratic field include Mayor of Hammond Thomas McDermott, Jr.,^[18] Lake County Sheriff Roy Dominguez,^[19] Rep. Joe Donnelly, former state House Speaker John R. Gregg, and state Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson. Former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh,^[20] Mayor of Evansville Jonathan Weinzapfel, and former Rep. Brad Ellsworth have decided not to run.

Democratic Incumbents running for re-election

Jay Nixon (Missouri)

Governor Jay Nixon will be eligible to run for re-election, and will do so.^[21]

Lt. Governor Peter Kinder (R) has stated he is considering a gubernatorial run, and will do so.^[22] State House Speaker Ron Richard has also been speculated as a Republican candidate.^[23]

The Lieutenant Governor will be elected separately.

Democratic Incumbents Eligible for Re-election

Togiola Tulafono (American Samoa)

Governor Togiola Tulafono will be eligible to run for re-election, but has so far not announced if he will do so.

Jack Markell (Delaware)

Governor Jack Markell will be eligible to run for re-election, but has so far not announced if he will do so.

The Lieutenant Governor will be elected separately.

John Lynch (New Hampshire)

Governor John Lynch was re-elected in the New Hampshire gubernatorial election of 2010 and will be eligible to run again in 2012 (unlike most other states and territories, the governors of New Hampshire and Vermont serve for two year terms). Lynch, however, has not announced whether or not he will run for a fifth term in 2012.

Former Chairman of the New Hampshire Board of Education Ovide Lamontagne, a Tea Party favorite who narrowly lost the Republican primary for Senate in 2010, is considering running.^[24] Other potential Republican candidates include state Senate Majority Leader and former U.S. Representative Jeb Bradley, Mayor of Manchester Ted Gatsas, and former Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen.

New Hampshire does not have a position of Lieutenant Governor.

Beverly Perdue (North Carolina)

Governor Beverly Perdue will be eligible to run for re-election, but has so far not announced if she will do so.

Potential Republican candidates include former Mayor of Charlotte Pat McCrory (the 2008 Republican nominee for Governor);^[25] Nido Qubein, President of High Point University;^[26] former Mayor of Raleigh and the current chairman of the Wake County Board of Commissioners Paul Coble;^[27] state senate president pro tempore Phil Berger;^[28] Tom Fetzer, former Mayor of Raleigh; U.S. Representative Virginia Foxx; and former state Senator Fred Smith.^[29]

The Lieutenant Governor will be elected separately.

Peter Shumlin (Vermont)

Governor Peter Shumlin, the victor of the Vermont gubernatorial election of 2010, will be eligible to run again in 2012, but has so far not announced if he will do so.

Thom Lauzon, the Mayor of Barre, has been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate.^[30]

The Lieutenant Governor will be elected separately.

Republican incumbents eligible for Re-election

Jack Dalrymple (North Dakota)

Governor Jack Dalrymple succeeded John Hoeven after the latter was elected Senator and will have the option to run in 2012 for a full term.

Potential Democratic candidates include former Representative Earl Pomeroy, former Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson, State School Superintendent Wayne G. Sanstead, and former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp.^[31]

Luis Fortuño (Puerto Rico)

Governor Luis Fortuño will be eligible to run for re-election, but has so far not announced if he will do so.

Fortuño has been mentioned as a long-shot potential Republican nominee for President or Vice President in 2012.^[32]

Puerto Rico does not have a position of Lieutenant Governor.

Gary Herbert (Utah)

Governor Gary Herbert, who won the 2010 special gubernatorial election to finish his predecessor's unfinished term, will have the option of running for a full four year term in 2012.

Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report in September 2010 suggested that the 2010 contest "may be a practice run for 2012 when the seat is up again."^[33] However, Corroon has not made any announcement as to whether he will run in 2012. Current names being discussed in Utah as possible GOP Convention contenders are: former State Representative Craig Frank (R); CEO of American Resource Petroleum Corp. William Skokos; and State Senator John Valentine (R-Orem).^[34]

Incumbent to be Determined

Unknown (West Virginia)

The Supreme Court of Appeals of West Virginia ruled on January 18, 2011 that the state must hold a special gubernatorial election in 2011^[35] to fill the vacancy resulting from Joe Manchin's election to the United States Senate. The special election is scheduled for October 4, 2011 with the person elected taking office on or before November 15, 2011 (exactly one year after Manchin resigned). The winner of the 2011 election will be eligible to run for a full term in 2012.

The Lieutenant Governor will be elected by the State Senate.

References

^ ^a ^b ^c "Candidates for governor already begin to surface". http://www.billingsnews.com/. 2009-11-05. Retrieved 2010-03-20. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)
^ Drescher, Kacey (December 13, 2010). "Democrat State Senator Enters Race for Governor 2012". KFBB-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ ^a ^b D.C.'s Political Report: Montana Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2010-11-06). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
^ "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Missoulian. 2010-11-06.
^ Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". KTVM-TV. Retrieved November 21, 2010.
^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1119.pdf
^ Garber, Andrew (June 13, 2011). "2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire". The Seattle Times. Retrieved June 13, 2011.
^ ^a ^b D.C.'s Political Report: Washington Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2010-11-15). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ http://www.politics1.com/wa.htm
^ "Dino Rossi, 2-time gubernatorial candidate, has a new job". The Seattle Times. May 3, 2009. Retrieved May 4, 2009.
^ Muskal, Michael (5 May 2011). "Mike Pence to run for Indiana governor". The Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 5 May 2011.
^ Geraghty, Jim (February 2, 2011). "The Campaign Spot". National Review.
^ Schneider, Mary Beth (February 2, 2011). "Businessman Exploring Run For GOP Gubernatorial Nomination". The Indianapolis Star.
^ The Bilerico Project | Indiana | The Next Governor of Indiana. Indiana.bilerico.com (2009-02-17). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ Mayor McDermott Running for Governor? « Hammond Ramblings. Msaliga.wordpress.com (2009-01-31). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ Indiana Governor 2012: Roy Dominguez voices plans already. Swing State Project. Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ http://www.indystar.com/article/20101211/NEWS05/101211007/1008/NEWS05
^ http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2010/12/16/gov-nixon-confirms-he-will-seek-re-election/
^ Kraushaar, Josh. (2009-01-08) Talent in?. Politico.Com. Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ D.C.'s Political Report: Missouri Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2009-11-06). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/ovides-stock-on.php
^ News & Observer: Perdue vs. McCrory II?
^ [1]^{[dead link‍]}
^ Coble: Stop the madness | newsobserver.com projects. Projects.newsobserver.com (2008-12-23). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ News & Observer: Who has the edge in '10?
^ http://www.politics1.com/nc.htm
^ http://www.politics1.com/vt.htm
^ D.C.'s Political Report: North Dakota Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2010-11-06). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.
^ Romano, Andrew (November 26, 2009). "The Governor of Puerto Rico ... for President?". Newsweek. Retrieved November 26, 2009.
^ http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogs/outofcontext/50253790-64/duffy-herbert-republican-utah.html.csp
^ http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/51812489-90/frank-herbert-governor-run.html.csp
^ http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/01/court-orders-we.php

[http://www.billingsnews.com-1] "Candidates for governor already begin to surface". http://www.billingsnews.com/. 2009-11-05. Retrieved 2010-03-20. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)

[2] Drescher, Kacey (December 13, 2010). "Democrat State Senator Enters Race for Governor 2012". KFBB-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[dcpoliticalreport.com-3] D.C.'s Political Report: Montana Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2010-11-06). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[bg01-4] Johnson, Charles S. (June 19, 2010). "Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[5] Johnson, Charles S. (September 13, 2010). "Pat Williams not running for governor". Billings Gazette. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[6] Keegan, Charlie (January 14, 2011). "Jim O'Hara Announces Candidacy for Governor". KFBB-TV. Retrieved January 17, 2011.

[7] "Former GOP U.S. Rep. Rick Hill to run for Montana governor". Missoulian. 2010-11-06.

[8] Debbas, Jessica (November 13, 2010). "Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester". KTVM-TV. Retrieved November 21, 2010.

[9] ttp://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1119.pdf

[10] Garber, Andrew (June 13, 2011). "2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire". The Seattle Times. Retrieved June 13, 2011.

[ReferenceA-11] D.C.'s Political Report: Washington Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2010-11-15). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[12] ttp://www.politics1.com/wa.htm

[13] "Dino Rossi, 2-time gubernatorial candidate, has a new job". The Seattle Times. May 3, 2009. Retrieved May 4, 2009.

[Pence_announcement-14] Muskal, Michael (5 May 2011). "Mike Pence to run for Indiana governor". The Los Angeles Times. Retrieved 5 May 2011.

[15] Geraghty, Jim (February 2, 2011). "The Campaign Spot". National Review.

[16] Schneider, Mary Beth (February 2, 2011). "Businessman Exploring Run For GOP Gubernatorial Nomination". The Indianapolis Star.

[17] The Bilerico Project | Indiana | The Next Governor of Indiana. Indiana.bilerico.com (2009-02-17). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[18] Mayor McDermott Running for Governor? « Hammond Ramblings. Msaliga.wordpress.com (2009-01-31). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[19] Indiana Governor 2012: Roy Dominguez voices plans already. Swing State Project. Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[20] ttp://www.indystar.com/article/20101211/NEWS05/101211007/1008/NEWS05

[21] ttp://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2010/12/16/gov-nixon-confirms-he-will-seek-re-election/

[politico-22] Kraushaar, Josh. (2009-01-08) Talent in?. Politico.Com. Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[23] D.C.'s Political Report: Missouri Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2009-11-06). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[24] ttp://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/ovides-stock-on.php

[25] News & Observer: Perdue vs. McCrory II?

[26] [1]^{[dead link‍]}

[27] Coble: Stop the madness | newsobserver.com projects. Projects.newsobserver.com (2008-12-23). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[28] News & Observer: Who has the edge in '10?

[29] ttp://www.politics1.com/nc.htm

[30] ttp://www.politics1.com/vt.htm

[31] D.C.'s Political Report: North Dakota Congressional and Statewide Races. Dcpoliticalreport.com (2010-11-06). Retrieved on 2010-11-20.

[32] Romano, Andrew (November 26, 2009). "The Governor of Puerto Rico ... for President?". Newsweek. Retrieved November 26, 2009.

[33] ttp://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/blogs/outofcontext/50253790-64/duffy-herbert-republican-utah.html.csp

[34] ttp://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/51812489-90/frank-herbert-governor-run.html.csp

[35] ttp://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/01/court-orders-we.php

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Predictions

Retiring and term-limited Democratic incumbents

Brian Schweitzer (Montana)

Christine Gregoire (Washington)

Term-limited Republican incumbent

Mitch Daniels (Indiana)

Democratic Incumbents running for re-election

Jay Nixon (Missouri)

Democratic Incumbents Eligible for Re-election

Togiola Tulafono (American Samoa)

Jack Markell (Delaware)

John Lynch (New Hampshire)

Beverly Perdue (North Carolina)

Peter Shumlin (Vermont)

Republican incumbents eligible for Re-election

Jack Dalrymple (North Dakota)

Luis Fortuño (Puerto Rico)

Gary Herbert (Utah)

Incumbent to be Determined

Unknown (West Virginia)

See also

References