User:Kmzayeem/Next Eleven
The Next Eleven (or N-11) are eleven countries—Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey and Vietnam—identified by Goldman Sachs investment bank as having a high potential of becoming, along with the BRICS, the world's largest economies in the 21st century. The bank chose these states, all with promising outlooks for investment and future growth, on December 12, 2005.
The criteria that Goldman Sachs used were macroeconomic stability, political maturity, openness of trade and investment policies and the quality of education. The N-11 paper is a follow-up to the bank's 2003 paper on the four emerging "BRIC" economies, Brazil, Russia, India and China.[1]
Next Eleven countries
Developed country
South Korea: Advanced economy (both CIA and IMF), High-income economy,[2] Very High human development, High-income OECD member, Developed market (in: Dow Jones index, FTSE index, and S&P index),[3] Full democracy, Development Assistance Committee member, G-20 major economies, Four Asian Tigers, KORUS FTA, European Union-Korea FTA, Visa Waiver Program participant, APEC founding member, ASEAN Plus Three founding member, EAS founding member
Newly industrialized country
Mexico: Upper-middle-income economy,[2] High human development, OECD member, Advanced Emerging market,[4] Flawed democracy, G-20 major economies, G8+5 member, NAFTA, APEC member
Turkey: Upper-middle-income economy,[2] High human development, OECD founding member, Secondary Emerging market,[4] Hybrid regime, G-20 major economies, EU Customs Union, ECO member, EU associate member
Philippines: Lower-middle-income economy,[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,[4] Flawed democracy, G20 developing nations, APEC founding member, ASEAN founding member, EAS founding member
Developing country
Egypt: Lower-middle-income economy,[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,[4] Regime in transition, G20 developing nations, CAEU founding member, COMESA member, ENP member
Indonesia: Lower-middle-income economy,[2] Medium human development, Secondary Emerging market,[4] Flawed democracy, G-20 major economies, APEC founding member, ASEAN founding member, EAS founding member
Iran: Upper-middle-income transition economy,[2] High human development, Republic (theocracy guided by Islamic ideology, Authoritarian regime), OPEC and GECF founding member, ECO member, Group of 15 member, Developing 8 Countries
Nigeria: Low-income economy,[2] Medium human development, Frontier market,[5] Flawed Democracy, AU member, OPEC member
Vietnam: Lower-middle-income economy,[2] Medium human development, Frontier market,[5] Authoritarian regime, APEC member, ASEAN member, EAS founding member
Pakistan: Low middle income economy[6] Medium human development, Frontier market,[4] Hybrid Regime, G20 developing nations, SAARC founding member, ECO member, Developing 8 Countries. UN does not list Pakistan as a least developed country.[7]
Least developed country
Bangladesh: Low-income economy,[2] Medium human development, Frontier market,[5] Flawed Democracy, SAARC founding member, Developing 8 Countries
Most Featured
South Korea & United Korea
Despite being a developed country, South Korea has been growing at a speed comparable to Brazil and Mexico. More importantly, it has a significantly higher Growth Environment Score (Goldman Sachs' way of measuring the long-term sustainability of growth) than all of the BRICs or N-11s.[8] Commentators such as William Pesek Jr. from Bloomberg argue that Korea is "Another 'BRIC' in Global Wall", suggesting that it stands out from the Next Eleven economies (N-11). South Korea will overtake Canada by 2025 and Italy by 2035 according to their paper "The N-11: More Than an Acronym".[9] Economists from other investment firms argue that Korea will have a GDP per capita of over $90,000 by 2050, virtually identical to the United States and the second highest among the G7, BRIC and N-11 economies, suggesting that wealth is more important than size for bond investors, stating that Korea's credit rating will be rated AAA sooner than 2050.[10]
 United Korea |
South Korea |
 North Korea
| |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP in USD | $6.056 trillion | $4.073 trillion | $1.982 trillion |
| GDP per capita | $86,000 | $96,000 | $70,000 |
| GDP growth (2010–2050) | 4.1% | 3.3% | 12.4% |
| Total population | 71 million | 42 million | 28 million |
In September 2009, Goldman Sachs published its 188th Global Economics Paper named "A United Korea?" which highlighted in detail the potential economic power of a United Korea, which will surpass all current G7 countries except the United States, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and France within 30–40 years of reunification, estimating GDP to surpass $6 trillion by 2050.[12] Cheap, skilled labor from the North combined with advanced technology and infrastructure in the South, as well as Korea's strategic location connecting three economic powers, is likely going to create an economy larger than the bulk of the G7. According to some opinions, a reunited Korea could occur before 2050,[12] or even between 2010 and 2020.[13] If it occurred, Korean reunification would immediately raise the country's population to over 70 million.[citation needed]
Mexico
Primarily, along with the BRICs,[14] Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and China is such that they may become (with the USA) the six most dominant economies by the year 2050. Due to Mexico's rapidly advancing infrastructure, increasing middle class and rapidly declining poverty rates it is expected to have a higher GDP per capita than all but three European countries by 2050, this new found local wealth also contributes to the nation's economy by creating a large domestic consumer market which in turn creates more jobs.
| Mexico
| |
|---|---|
| GDP in USD | $9.340 trillion |
| GDP per capita | $63,149 |
| GDP growth (2015–2050) | 4.0% |
| Total population | 148 million |
Indonesia
Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country after China, India and the USA and the world's third most populous democratic country after India and the USA. In 2009, BRIC and Indonesia represented about 42 and 3 percent of the world's population respectively and about 15 percent of global GDP altogether. All of them are G20 countries. By 2015, Internet users in BRIC and Indonesia will double to 1.2 billion.[16][17] At 2009, Indonesia was the only member of the G20 to lower its public debt-to-GDP ratio: a very positive economic management indicator.[18]
October 2010: Wealth has surged in emerging markets in Asia Pacific, especially India and Indonesia. In the last ten years the total wealth of India has tripled to $3.5trillion while Indonesia's has grown fivefold to $1.8trillion. The inaugural report by the Credit Suisse Research Institute defines wealth as the value of financial assets and non-financial assets (mainly real estate), minus household debt.[19]
Pakistan
Pakistan the world's sixth most populous country after China, India, USA, Indonesia and Brazil. With most of the population working in agriculture, it is a nation with a partially democratic system though, as of 2011, it continues to be plagued by instability owing to political and religious extremism.[20][21][22][23]
| Pakistan
| |
|---|---|
| GDP in USD | $2.085 trillion |
| GDP per capita | $7,066 |
| GDP growth (2015–2050) | 3.8% |
| Total population | 178 million |
Philippines
The Philippines was then one of the richest countries in Asia but due to political instability and adoption of inconsistent economic policies, it took a turn to being one of the poorest. The Philippines, despite of its relatively small land area, has the world's 12th largest population. This leads to many social problems such as poverty, unemployment, and crime. However, the Philippines is now growing fast and needs are being fulfilled. It performed well compared to other Asian countries and is now considered as a newly industrialized country. It had shown its economic stability in facing financial crises.[25] According to Goldman Sachs, the Philippine economy will become the 14th largest economy in the world by 2050.[26][27]
| The Philippines
| |
|---|---|
| GDP in USD | $3.010 trillion |
| GDP per capita | $20,388 |
| GDP growth (2015–2050) | 5.2% |
| Total population | 148 million |
See also
|
References
- ^ Global Economics Paper 134 and Jim O'Neill, BRIMCs
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j "Data - Country Groups". World Bank. Retrieved 2009-02-02.
- ^ http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/blog/eyeonasia/archives/2009/09/korea_wins_ftse.html
- ^ a b c d e f See FTSE emerging markets list
- ^ a b c See FTSE frontier markets list
- ^ http://data.worldbank.org/node/123#Lower_middle_income
- ^ http://www.unohrlls.org/en/ldc/related/62/
- ^ "Global Economics Paper 134 and [[Jim O'Neill]], BRIMCs" (PDF). Goldman Sachs. Retrieved 2010-11-06.
{{cite web}}: URL–wikilink conflict (help) - ^ http://www.chicagogsb.edu/alumni/clubs/pakistan/docs/next11dream-march%20%2707-goldmansachs.pdf
- ^ http://www.strattonstreetcapital.com/abf/reports/a%20pile%20of%20brics.pdf
- ^ "Global Economics Paper No: 188 "A United Korea?"" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ a b "Unified Korea to Exceed G7 in 2050". Koreatimes.co.kr. 2009-09-21. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "Questia Online Library". Questia.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "BRIC thesis Goldman Sachs Investment Bank, "BRIC"" (PDF). Gs.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ a b Global Economics Paper No: 153 The N-11m: More Than an Acronym, March 28, 2007.
- ^ Internet users in BRIC countries set to double by 2015
- ^ Thu, 2 Sep 2010. "South Asia Hello". Archive.wn.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Indonesia's economy continues to surprise". East Asia Forum. 2010-09-25. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/298716
- ^ http://www.euronews.net/2009/05/06/us-concern-over-instability-in-pakistan/
- ^ http://www.nsnetwork.org/node/1254
- ^ http://pakteahouse.net/2011/03/13/witch-hunt-grips-pakistan-as-bloody-political-assassinations-deplete-liberal-ranks/
- ^ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-13085776
- ^ "Global Economics Paper No: 188 "Pakistan"" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ [1]
- ^ "BRICS AND BEYOND" - Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.
- ^ "The Expanding Middle: The Exploding World Middle Class and Falling Global Inequality" - Goldman Sachs study, Global Economics Paper No: 170, July 28, 2008.
Further reading
- "The N-11: More Than an Acronym" – Goldman Sachs study of N-11 nations, Global Economics Paper No: 153, March 28, 2007.