2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election. There are 2,286 delegates to be chosen. A candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes at the The Republican National Convention to win. It is the first presidential primary affected by a Supreme Court ruling that allowed unlimited fundraising for candidates through super PACs. The primary contest began in 2011 with a fairly wide field. Mitt Romney had been preparing to run for president ever since the 2008 election and the media narrative became: "who would be the anti-Romney candidate?" Several contestants raised in the polls one after another during the year. But after the two first contests (Iowas and New Hampshire) the field was down to four candidates: Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, U.S. Congressman Ron Paul, former Governor Mitt Romney and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum. Santorum had been running a one state campaign in Iowa, and he won the state with a handful of votes over Romney, who won New Hampshire and one congressional district in South Carolina with the rest of South Carolinas districts going to Gingrich. For the first time since 1980, three different Republican candidates won the 3 first contests (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina). Santorum took his one-state campaign national and won the Minnesota and the Colorado caucuses together with Missouris nonbinding primary. Mitt Romney went on to win the Florida primary, the Nevada caucuses, the Arizona primary, the Wyoming and Washington caucuses. He won the Maine caucuses narowly over Paul. And the state contest of the Michigan Primary while only winning half of its congressional districts, the rest going to Santorum.

Schedule and process

Background

Main article: United States presidential primary

The 2008 Republican National Convention decided that the 2012 primary schedule generally would be subject to the same rules as the 2008 delegate selection contests. But on August 6, 2010, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections, with 103 votes in favor out of 144. Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:

• February 1 – March 5, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
• March 6–31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates,
• April 1, 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections.

Several states, most notably Florida, scheduled their contests earlier than prescribed. This pressured every traditional early state except Nevada to push back their contest into January. As a result of their violation of RNC rules, these states were penalized with a loss of half their delegates, including voting right for RNC delegates. Despite having early caucuses, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri were not automatically penalized, because their contests do not bind national delegates until after the prescribed time period for the early voting states.

The total base number of delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10 at-large delegates, plus 3 delegates per congressional district. In addition, fixed numbers of at-large delegates are allocated to Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands under the party's delegate selection rules. States are awarded bonus delegates based on the following factors:

• Bonus delegates to each state that cast a majority of their Electoral College votes for the GOP candidate in the 2008 presidential election
• One bonus delegate for each GOP senator
• One bonus delegate to each state that has a GOP majority in their delegation to the House of Representatives
• One bonus delegate for each state that has a GOP governor
• Bonus delegates for majorities in one or all of the chambers in their state legislature.

The three Republican National Committee members from each state and territory are delegates unless the state is penalized for violating the RNC's scheduling rules. The individual states decide whether these RNC members are bound or unbound.

Primary schedule

Main article: United States presidential election, 2012 timeline

Republican primaries and caucuses calendar 2012

  January 2012 (4)

  February 2012 (7)

  March 2012 (23)

  April 2012 (9)

  May 2012 (7)

  June 2012 (6)

This table shows how and when the National Convention delegates are secured for the candidates. This means it does not included straw polls, primary or other kinds. And it does not included the dates for different locale convention where the delegates are personal elected or selected. (If delegates to local conventions are not bound by the primary or caucus or if the state elect unbound National delegates the date of the convention appears in the allocation column)

• Date: This is the date where the delegates are bound to a candidate or the date where the first step to electing the delegates are taken. Some states have caucuses that stretch for more than one day.
• State: In addition to the fifty state contests there is also five territorial contests and one federal territory contest
• There are three types of delegates. In this table they are listed in the way the candidates secure them, in a few states that is by the at-large state vote even though the individual delegate are selected on the district level.
  • (RNC) 3 members of the Republican National Committee from each nonpenalized state. 12 states bind these delegate to the at-large state result, the rest is unbound.
  • (AL) Delegates elected At-Large in the state or territory
  • (CD) Delegates elected in each Congressional District
• Contest type: There are two types: Caucus and Primary, which are regulated in many different ways in the local states.
• Bound delegates: These pledged delegates are legally bound to vote for a candidate for at least the first ballot at the National Convention. All 3 types of delegates can be bound, depending on the local state rules.
• Unbound delegates: There are 117 RNC delegates that are free to vote for any candidate they like, and the candidates are free to woo them. Up to 340 AL and CD delegates are unbound (unpledged). They are elected at conventions through the land, and the candidates work to get as many of their supporters to join these convention through caucus and primaries in the respective states.
• Delegate allocation: It can be the same on both the state and district level or it can be different. The 2012 election have more proportional allocated contest than the 2008 election.
  • Winner-take-all. In some state and districts this method will not be used unless one candidate get a majority of all the votes.
  • Proportional. Most states have thresholds that candidates must meet to be given delegates proportional, these thresholds range from 10% to 25% percent of the votes. but a few states that elect delegates proportionally have no such threshold.
  • Loophole. The original advisory preference/delegate selection type of primary, where the voters vote for the candidate in an advisory primary and separately vote for a candidate slate. So even though the delegates technically are unbound they will, by using the loophole, become practically bound to a candidate.
  • Convention. If the national convention delegates are unbound or they are not bound at the first caucuses held in the state, the local convention is where they get elected. The dates for these local convention date are shown in brackets. (notice that for contests in some small territories or states the caucus can be the convention)
  • Committee. The date the local state committee elects delegates is in brackets.

• Secured delegates There are two ways to secure a delegate for a candidate. The delegate can be legally bound to a candidate via the state contest or the delegate can commit themselves to support a candidate. All unbound candidates (Superdelegates) fall into the last category, both RNC members and unbound delegates elected at conventions. If a delegate drops out some of his delegates may become unbound, depending on the different state rules.

		Delegate type				Delegate status			Secured delegates
Date	State	RNC	AL	CD	Contest type	Unbound	Bound	Delegate Allocation	Romney	Santorum	Gingrich	Paul
Jan 3	Iowa	3	13	12	Caucus (nonbinding)	28	0	Convention
Jan 10	New Hampshire#	0	12	0	Primary (semi-closed)	0	12	Proportional	7			3
Jan 21	South Carolina#	0	11	14	Primary (open)	0	25	Winner-take-all	2		23
Jan 31	Florida#	0	50	0	Primary (closed)	0	50	Winner-take-all	50
Feb 4	Nevada	3	25	0	Caucus (binding)	0	28	Proportional	14	3	6	5
Feb 7	Colorado	3	12	21	Caucus (nonbinding)	36	0	Convention
	Minnesota	3	13	24	Caucus (nonbinding)	40	0	Conventiona
	Maine	3	15	6	Caucus (nonbinding)	24	0	Convention
Feb 28	Arizona#	0	29	0	Primary (closed)	0	29	Winner-take-all	29
	Michigan#	0	2	28	Primary (open)	0	30	Winner-take-all	16	14
	Wyoming	3	14	12g	Caucus (nonbinding)	29	0	Convention
Mar 3	Washington	3	10	30	Caucus (nonbinding)	3	40	Convention
Mar 6	Georgia	3	31	42	Primary (open)	0	76	Proportional
	Idaho	0	32	0	Caucus (binding)	0	32	Proportionald
	Massachusetts	3	11	27	Primary (semi-closed)	3	38	Proportional
	North Dakota	3	25	0	Caucus (binding)	3	25	Proportionalc
	Ohio	3	15	48	Primary (semi-closed)	3	63	Proportional (AL)c d Winner-take-all (CD)c
	Oklahoma	3	25	15	Primary (closed)	3	40	Proportionald
	Tennessee	3	28	27	Primary (open)	3	55	Proportionale
	Vermont	3	11	3	Primary (open)	0	17	Proportional (AL)d Winner-take-all (CD)
	Virginia	3	13	33	Primary (open)	3	46	Proportional (AL)d Winner-take-all (CD)
Mar 10	Kansas	3	25	12	Caucus (binding)	0	40	Proportional (AL) Winner-take-all (CD)
	Guam	3	6	0	Caucus (nonbinding)	9	0	Conventionb
	Northern Mariana Is.	3	6	0	Caucus (nonbinding)	9	0	Convention
	U.S. Virgin Islands	3	6	0	Caucus (nonbinding)	9	0	Conventionb
Mar 13	Alabama	3	26	21	Primary (open)	3	47	Proportionald
	American Samoa	3	6	0	Caucus (nonbinding)	6	0	Conventiona
	Hawaii	3	11	6	Caucus (binding)	3	17	Proportional
	Mississippi	3	25	12	Primary (open)	3	37	Proportional
Mar 18	Puerto Rico	3	20	0	Primary (open)	3	20	Winner-take-all
Mar 20	Illinois	3	12	54	Primary (open)	12	54	Convention (AL Jun. 18-19) Loophole (CD)
	Alaska	3	24	0	Caucus (binding)	3	24	Proportional
	Missouri	3	25	24	Caucus (nonbinding)	0	52	Convention (AL Jun. 2) (CD Apr. 21)
Mar 24	Louisiana	3	25	18	Primary (closed)	26h	20	Proportional (AL) Convention (CD Jun. 2)
Apr 3	Maryland	3	10	24	Primary (closed)	0	37	Winner-take-all
	Washington, D.C.	3	16	0	Primary (closed)	3	16	Winner-take-all
	Wisconsin	3	15	24	Primary (open)	3	39	Winner-take-all
Apr 24	Connecticut	3	10	15	Primary (closed)	3	25	Proportional (AL)d Winner-take-all (CD)
	Delaware	3	14	0	Primary (closed)	0	17	Winner-take-all
	New York	3	34	58	Primary (closed)	3	92	Proportionald
	Pennsylvania	3	10	59	Primary (closed)	69	0	Committee (AL Jun. 1) Loophole (CD)
	Rhode Island	3	0	16	Primary (semi-closed)	3	16	Proportional
May 8	Indiana	3	16	27	Primary (open)	19	27	Convention (AL Jun. 8-9) Winner-take-all (CD)
	North Carolina	3	52	0	Primary (semi-closed)	3	52	Proportional
	West Virginia	3	19	9	Primary (semi-closed)	3	28	Proportional
May 15	Oregon	3	25	0	Primary (closed)	3	25	Proportional
May 22	Arkansas	3	21	12	Primary (open)	3	33	Proportionald
	Kentucky	3	24	18	Primary (closed)	3	42	Proportional
May 29	Texas	3	44	108	Primary (open)	3	152	Proportional
Jun 5	California	3	10	159	Primary (Open)	3	169	Winner-take-all
	New Jersey	3	47	0	Primary (semi-closed)	0	50	Winner-take-all
	New Mexico	3	11	9	Primary (closed)	3	20	Proportional
	South Dakota	3	25	0	Primary (closed)	3	25	Proportional
	Nebraska	3	23	9	Caucus (nonbinding)	3	32	Convention (Jul. 14)
	Montana	3	23	0	Caucus (binding)i	26	0	Convention
Jun 26	Utah	3	37	0	Primary (semi-closed)	0	40	Winner-take-all

Notes

^# The state is penalized for breaking RNC schedule guidelines. The penalty cuts the delegation number in half and removes voting privileges from the party leader delegates.
^a The state, district or territory convention can vote to bind its delegates.
^b Delegates are legally bound if they declare themselves for a candidate.
^c Delegates are morally but not legally bound to a candidate.
^d If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
^e If any candidate receives more than 66% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
^g Wyoming has only one congressional district, but the 12 CD delegates are elected in the 23 counties that are paired together.
^h Louisiana's state committee selects 5 out of the 25 At-Large delegates as unbound.
ⁱ Montana's caucus is its convention. The delegates to this caucus are selected by the counties central committies at least 10 days before the date of state convention.

Results

Main articles: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries and Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012

Candidate	Current Office	Home state	Secured delegates	Projected delegates	Popular vote	States - first place	States - second place	States - third place
Mitt Romney	Former Governor	Massachusetts	136	178	1,831,529 (40.16%)	8 New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada, Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Wyoming, Washington	4 South Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, Missouri(p)	1 Minnesota
Newt Gingrich	Former U.S. House Speaker	Georgia	32	49	983,337 (21.56%)	1South Carolina	2 Florida, Nevada	2 Colorado, Arizona
Rick Santorum	Former U.S. Senator	Pennsylvania	19	75	1,083,276 (23.76%)	4 Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri(p)	3 Arizona, Michigan, Wyoming	4 South Carolina, Florida, Maine, Washington
Ron Paul	U.S. Representative	Texas	9	51	506,414 (11.11%)	0	4 New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Washington	5 Iowa, Nevada, Missouri(p), Michigan, Wyoming

2012 Republican primary results by county

  Mitt Romney

  Ron Paul

  Rick Santorum

  Newt Gingrich

  Rick Perry

Start of the race

Main articles: Preface to the Republican presidential primaries, 2012 and Republican Party presidential debates, 2012

Herman Cain gained frontrunner status in October 2011. He ended his campaign December 3, 2011, after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct surfaced.

The start of the 2012 Republican race for president was shaped by the 13 presidentiel debates of 2011 beginning on May 5. Gary Johnson and Buddy Roemer, both former Governors, was left out of most of the debates leading complains of bias. On December 28, 2011 Johnson withdrew to seek the Libertarian Party nomination and on February 23, 2012 Roemer withdrew to seek the Reform Party and the Americans Elect nomination.

Two candidates from the 2008 presidential primaries, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, ran again in the 2012 primary campaign. Mitt Romney was an early frontrunner, and he maintained a careful, strategic campaign that centered on being an establishment candidate. In the summer of 2011 he had a lead in polls with the support of much of the Republican electorate. However, his lead over the Republican field was precarious, owing to the entry of new candidates who drew considerable media attention. First congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota started her campaign in June and surged in the polls after winning the Ames Straw Poll in August, but she lost some of the momentum when Texas Governor Rick Perry shortly after he was drafted by strong national Republican support. He performed strongly in polls, immediately becoming a serious contender. But he lost the momentum following a poor performances in the September debates. As the third opponent to Romney's lead Herman Cain surged after the sixth debate on September 22. In November Cain's viability as a candidate was seriously jeopardized after several allegations of sexual harassment surfaced in the media, and he suspended his campaign on December 3, 2011, despite his unyielding denials of any misconduct.

In November as Herman Cain's campaign was stumbling former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich asserted himself as the fourth leading opponent to Romney. It was a comeback for Gingrich after his campaign had suffered under serious staff problems just weeks after he had entered the race in May. But in the few weeks before the Iowa caucus, Gingrich's lead quickly began to evaporate. Iowans were bombarded with over $4.4 million in negative advertising on Gingrich from super PACs sympathetic to Mitt Romney and others. So on the eve of the Iowa Caucus, the first contest, there was no clear and strong frontrunner.

Early States

In 2012 there were 12 state contests along with Missouri's nonbinding primary. half of these contest allocated delegates to the candidates while the other half was entry level caucuses that elected delegates to the next political level in the state party. The delegates elected to the highest level (the state and/or the district convention) in the state will caucus to elect delegates to the National Convention.

Results from the early states
Candidates:		Newt Gingrich	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney	Rick Santorum	Rick Perry	Jon Huntsman	Michele Bachmann
Jan. 3	Iowa	13%	21%	25%	25%	10%	1%	5%
Jan. 10	New Hampshire	9%	23%	39%	9%	1%	17%
Jan. 21	South Carolina	40%	13%	28%	17%
Jan. 31	Florida	32%	7%	46%	13%
Feb. 4	Nevada	21%	19%	50%	10%
Feb. 7	Colorado	13%	12%	35%	40%
	Missouri (P)	-	12%	25%	55%
	Minnesota	11%	27%	17%	45%
Feb. 4–11	Maine	6%	36%	38%	18%
Feb. 28	Arizona	16%	8%	47%	27%
	Michigan	7%	12%	41%	38%
Feb. 11-29	Wyoming	8%	21%	39%	32%
Mar. 3	Washington	10%	25%	38%	24%

Michele Bachmann suspended her campaign on January 4 after ending up fifth in the Iowas caucus

Jon Huntsman invested heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third, he suspended his campaign on January 16

Rick Perry suspended his campaign on January 19 after weak performances in both Iowas and New Hampshire

Santorum spent months in Iowa, traveling to all 99 counties and holding some 381 town hall meetings. This one state campaign succeeded when he tied with Romney in the Iowa Caucuses on January 3. This first in the nation caucus propelled him into a national campaign while it ended Michele Bachman's campaign. On the night of the caucuses, Romney was reported the winner of Iowa by only eight votes over Santorum, but after the results were certified, Santorum was given the win, beating Romney by 34 votes, despite the results from 8 districts being lost.

Newt Gingrich said after Iowa that his positive campaign had been a weakness, and had allowed his rivals to gain the upper hand through negative attacks.
Mitt Romney easily won the next contest in New Hampshire being allocated seven of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention, while Ron Paul was allocated three and Jon Huntsman two. Romney's win in New Hampshire was seen as a given; he had persistently showed popularity in that state, but rivals were intensely fighting for a second-place finish there. Jon Huntsman, Jr., a moderate, had staked his candidacy on New Hampshire and invested heavily in at least a strong second place showing. But after 150 campaign events in the state he ended third after Paul. Both he and Rick Perry dropped out of the race shortly before voting day in South Carolina.

Romney was expected to virtually clinch the nomination with a win in South Carolina, but Gingrich, who is from neighboring Georgia, waged an aggressive and successful campaign winning all but one of the states congressional districts." Gingrich victory in South Carolina together with two strong debate performances gave him a second surge , opening the race to a longer and more unpredictable campaign.

Romney did regain some of his momentum and won the Florida primary and got allocated 50 delegates in this winner-take-all contest. He also won the Nevada caucuses several days later with a narrow majority of the votes. He was allocated 14 of the state's delegates, while Gingrich got 6, Paul 5 and Santorum 3.

However, the race shifted again on February 7, when Santorum swept the contests in Missouri (which did not allocate delegates), Minnesota and Colorado, making a case for himself as the anti-Romney candidate and disrupting Romney's narrative as the unstoppable frontrunner.

Following his victories on February 7, Santorum received a huge boost in momentum as conservatives seeking an alternative to Romney began leaving Gingrich for Santorum. Numerous polls taken after Santorum's victories showed him either leading Romney nationally or close behind. To regain momentum Romney shelved his "no straw polls" policy and actively campaigned to win the CPAC straw poll which he won with 38% to Santorums 31%. He also campaigned in Maine, beating Ron Paul by only three percentage points.
Regaining momentum Romney won the Arizona Republican primary, the Wyoming caucuses and the Washington caucuses. The candidates campaigned heavily in Michigan and even though Romney won the state vote he only won 7 out of 14 congressional districts, the rest went to Santorum. The two delegate allocated at-large in the state was before the election reported to be given proportionally but after the election the Michigan GOP announced there had been an error in the memo published and that the two delegates would be given to the winner, this sparked accusations of Romney rigging the results from Santorum's team.

After 12 contests the GOP field for the presidential nomination were still wide open.

The state of the race on the eve of Super Tuesday
Candidates:	Mitt Romney	Newt Gingrich	Rick Santorum	Ron Paul
Elected Bound Delegates	118	29	17	8
Pledged Superdelegates	18	3	2	1
Popular Vote (not counting Missouri)	1,786,594 (40%)	989,187 (22%)	956,245 (24%)	479,835 (11%)

There are 374 delegates in the state delegations from the early states. But only 172 have been allocated to the candidates, 18 are unbound RNC delegates, 2 were allocated for Huntsman but are now unbound, and 182 delegates will not be allocated before the conventions in their respective states. This table shows the dates of these conventions and the projections of 3 reliable sources ( AP, CNN and The Green Papers )

Delegate election in early caucus states
	Iowa			Colorado			Minnesota			Maine			Wyoming			Washington
AL delegates	13			12			13			15			14			10
CD delegates	12			21			24			6			12			30
Number of CD's	4			7			8			2			1 (23 counties)			10
CD Convention	June 6			Mar. 29 to Apr. 13			April 14–21			May 5–6			March 6–10 (counties)			May 30 to Jun. 2
State Convention	June 6			April 14			May 14–15			May 5–6			April 12–14			May 30 to Jun. 2
Projection:	AP	CNN	GP	AP	CNN	GP	AP	CNN	GP	AP	CNN	GP	AP	CNN	GP	AP	CNN	GP
Newt Gingrich	-	2	4	-	2	4	-	1	4	-	-	1	-	1	2	-	-	4
Ron Paul	-	7	2	-	1	4	-	9	10	10	7	8	-	6	6	5	8	10
Mitt Romney	12	7	6	9	13	12	-	2	6	11	9	8	-	10	10	30	25	16
Rick Santorum	13	7	6	18	17	13	37	25	17	-	3	4	-	9	8	5	7	10

• Wyoming elects its CD delegates in the counties.

Super Tuesday

Main article: Super Tuesday, 2012

Super Tuesday takes place on March 6, 2012, totaling 392 delegates (17% of the total), and involves contests in: Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (38), North Dakota (25),Ohio (63), Oklahoma (40), Tennessee (55), Vermont (17), and Virginia (46).

Republican primaries	Mitt Romney	Rick Santorum	Newt Gingrich	Ron Paul
Number of states won on Super Tuesday	--	--	--	--
Number of delegates won on Super Tuesday	--	--	--	--
Popular vote won on Super Tuesday	--	--	--	--

Next contest

• Ongoing: Alaska (until March 24)
• March 10: Kansas

See also

• Preface to the Republican presidential primaries, 2012
• Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012
• Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
• United States presidential election, 2012 timeline
• Republican Party presidential debates, 2012
• Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2012 presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
• Straw polls for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
• Endorsements for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
• United States presidential election
• Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2012

External links

• USA Today: Election results District by District. (Source AP)
• Primaries collected news and commentary at The New York Times
• Republican Primary Tracker from The Washington Post
• Republican Primary Tracker from The Wall Street Journal
• Republican Primary 17-poll average from The Wall Street Journal
• 2012 Election Central
• The Green Papers
• America's Choice 2012: 2012 Primaries and caucuses results from CNN