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2012 Pacific hurricane season

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2012 Pacific hurricane season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedMay 14, 2012
Last system dissipatedSeason still active
Strongest storm
NameEmilia
 • Maximum winds140 mph (220 km/h)
 • Lowest pressure945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg)
Seasonal statistics
Total depressions6
Total storms6
Hurricanes4
Major hurricanes
(Cat. 3+)		3
Total fatalities2 direct, 1 indirect
Total damageUnknown
Related article
Pacific hurricane seasons
2010, 2011, 2012, Post-2012

The 2012 Pacific hurricane season is an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season officially started on May 15, 2012 in the Eastern Pacific, although Tropical Storm Aletta developed a day prior. The season began on June 1, 2012 in the Central Pacific, and the entire season will end on November 30, 2012. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin.

Seasonal forecasts

Predictions of tropical activity in the 2012 season
Source Date Named
storms 		Hurricanes Major
hurricanes
Average (1971–2006) 15.3 8.8 4.2
Record high activity 28 16 (tie) 10
Record low activity 8 (tie) 3 0 (tie)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
NOAA May 24, 2012 12-18 5-9 2-5
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
Actual activity 5 4 3

On May 24, the Climate Prediction Center released its pre-season outlook. The scientists stated a 30% chance of a below-normal season, a 50% chance of a near-normal season and a 20% chance of an above-normal season. The climatologists expected 12–18 named storms, with 5–9 becoming hurricanes, and 2–5 becoming major hurricanes. The below-normal activity forecast was because of increased wind shear and a high expectation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions throughout the peak in the later months of summer, together with lingering La Niña conditions at the beginning of the season, even though there had already been two named systems – one tropical storm and one major hurricane – in the month of May.

Storms

Tropical Storm Aletta

Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 14 – May 19
Peak intensity50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min);
1000 mbar (hPa)

On May 12, the NHC started to monitor a tropical disturbance that had developed about 550 miles (890 km) to the south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.[1] During that day the disturbance moved quickly towards the northwest before early on May 14, the disturbance was deemed to have consolidated enough to be declared Tropical Depression One-E.[2] During that day the depression intensified further before it was declared a tropical storm and named Aletta.[3] On May 16, Tropical Storm Aletta reached its peak intensity of 50 mph (85 km/h), with a minimum low pressure of 1000 hPa. Later on May 16, Tropical Storm Aletta began to enter unfavorable environmental conditions, with increasing wind shear and dry air, which weakened the storm to a 40 mph (65 km/h) tropical storm. Very late on May 16, the National Hurricane Center downgraded Aletta to a tropical depression, as the system began losing its convection after turning to the west-northwest.[4] On May 17, Tropical Depression Aletta lost most of its convection, as it turned to the northwest.[5] Late on May 17, Aletta regained much of its convection, as it turned northward.[6] On May 18, Aletta lost all of its western and southern convection, due to wind shear as the storm turned northeastward, and continued to weaken. Aletta became post-tropical the next day, as it turned to the east.[7] Late on May 19, Aletta's remnant dissipated into a convectionless vortex, as it turned northeast.[8] Later, Aletta's convectionless remnant slowly accelerated westward, before dissipating completely on May 21.

Hurricane Bud

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationMay 21 – May 26
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
960 mbar (hPa)
Main article: Hurricane Bud (2012)

On May 12, a low pressure system formed just south of eastern Panama. The storm slowly organized as it moved westwards. On May 15, the storm acquired a burst of convection, and the NHC began to monitor the system.[9] As the storm turned west-northwestwards, it organized significantly. On May 17, wind shear began to erode the storm's convection, weakening the system and causing it to stall, although the system continued to persist. On May 20, the storm strengthened rapidly, as it began moving again, and on May 21, the NHC reported that the storm had strengthened into Tropical Depression Two-E.[10] Then, as it slightly accelerated to the west, the storm continued to organize, eventually intensifying into Tropical Storm Bud on May 22, with 40 mph sustained winds. Bud remained at this intensity for one day before strengthening, starting early on May 23, and reached winds of 65 mph (100 km/h) during the afternoon. By the next morning (May 24), Bud continued its rapid intensification, reaching sustained winds of 85 mph, and then 110 mph by the afternoon, as the system turned northward. Later on the same day, Bud turned to the northeast, and began to approach the coast of Western Mexico. Late on May 24, Bud intensified further into a Category 3 major hurricane, and obtained a peak intensity of 115 mph winds, with a minimum central low pressure of 960 mbars.[11] Hurricane Bud was able to maintain Category 3 intensity for the next several hours, even its outer rainbands began moving onshore in Western Mexico. Very early on May 25, Hurricane Bud weakened down to a strong Category 2 hurricane.[12] Hurricane Bud rapidly began to weaken, as it slowly moved onshore. Bud quickly lost most of its convection, which was sheared mainly to the north. During the mid-afternoon of May 25, Bud weakened down to a strong tropical storm, as it began making landfall on Western Mexico. Further weakening ensued over the next 24 hours, and Bud degenerated into a remnant low early on May 26.

Hurricane Carlotta

Main article: Hurricane Carlotta (2012)
Category 2 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJune 13 – June 16
Peak intensity105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min);
976 mbar (hPa)

A tropical wave in the Eastern Pacific quickly became organized on June 13 and became Tropical Depression Three-E that evening. The National Hurricane Center upgraded it to a Tropical Storm and named it "Carlotta" the next day. Carlotta passed over very favorable environmental conditions that allowed further intensification into a Category 2 hurricane. On June 15, Carlotta weakened back into a Category 1 and then made landfall near Puerto Escondido, Mexico with maximum winds of 90 mph. After making its landfall, Carlotta quickly weakened to a tropical depression because of the mountainous terrain along the coastline. Carlotta continued to move westward, and soon dissipated to a remnant low, late on June 16. Its remnants later merged with another trough of low pressure.

Upon formation, hurricane watches were issued for the southern coastline of Mexico. This was later upgraded to a warning when Carlotta became a hurricane. The storm made landfall in southern Mexico, bringing with it heavy rains and gusty winds which caused flash floods and numerous landslides along the area, primarily the state of Oaxaca. A total of three people were killed by Carlotta, all of them in Oaxaca. Due to the severity of the situation in Oaxaca the governor requested for a state of emergency to be declared to his state, which it did in order to help people affected by the hurricane.

Hurricane Daniel

Category 3 hurricane (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 4 – July 11
Peak intensity115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min);
961 mbar (hPa)

Early on July 2, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring an area of disturbed weather about 475 mi (764 km) south-southeast of Acapulco. Over the next 24 hours, the disturbance continued to become increasingly better organized, and a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert was issued on the system early on July 3. By early on July 4, the system had gained enough organization to be declared as Tropical Depression Four-E. On July 5, Four-E became Tropical Storm Daniel. The cyclone then slowly intensified, and after having been situated over a favorable environment for two days, it intensified into a hurricane. Overnight July 7 to July 8, Daniel rapidly intensified further into a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). Later that day, Daniel reached a peak intensity of 115 mph and a central pressure of 961 millibars, a Category 3 hurricane, although the eye was already over cooler waters. However, Daniel maintained Category 3 status briefly, and six hours later, the eye became less well-defined and the storm weakened back to a Category 2 hurricane. By July 9, Daniel had weakened further to a Category 1. Early on July 10, Daniel continued to weakened into a tropical storm, as the system became smaller in size, over cooler waters. On July 11, Daniel's low level circulation center started to became exposed under moderate vertical wind shear. It further weakened into a tropical depression later that day and then degenerated into a remnant low east-southeast of Hawaii, as it became a convectionless vortex.

Hurricane Emilia

Hurricane Emilia
Current storm status
Category 3 hurricane (1-min mean)
File:Hurricane Emilia Jul 11 2012 1810Z.jpg
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:7 a.m. PDT (1400 UTC) July 12
Location:15.1°N 121.4°W ± 10 nm
About 925 mi (1485 km) SW of the southern tip of Baja California
Sustained winds:100 knots (115 mph; 185 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 120 knots (135 mph; 215 km/h)
Pressure:960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg)
Movement:WNW at 11 kt (12 mph; 19 km/h)
See more detailed information.

A small but well-defined area of disturbed weather became organized enough to be declared as Tropical Depression Five-E on July 7, about 500 mi (800 km) south-southwest of Acapulco. Later the same day the depression gained sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical storm, receiving the name "Emilia", the fifth named storm of the season. Emilia reached hurricane status early on July 9 and began to rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane as the eastern outflow channel from Daniel that had previously inhibited development weakened and allowed Emilia to ventilate its core in all directions. Early on July 10, Emilia reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph and a barometric pressure of 945 mbar.

Current storm information

As of 2 a.m. PDT (0900 UTC) July 12, Hurricane Emilia is located within 10 nautical miles of 15°12′N 120°12′W / 15.2°N 120.2°W / 15.2; -120.2 (Emilia), about 855 mi (1380 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Maximum sustained winds are 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 InHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 11 knots (13 mph, 20 km/h).

Hurricane force winds extend up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center of Emilia, and tropical storm force winds up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center.

For latest official information see:

Tropical Storm Fabio

Tropical Storm Fabio
Current storm status
Tropical storm (1-min mean)
As of:8 a.m. PDT (1500 UTC) July 12
Location:13.6°N 107.3°W ± 30 nm
About 425 mi (680 km) SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico About 665 mi (1070 km) SSE of the southern tip of Baja California
Sustained winds:35 knots (40 mph; 65 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 40 knots (45 mph; 75 km/h)
Pressure:1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg)
Movement:WNW at 8 kt (9 mph; 15 km/h)
See more detailed information.

A well-defined area of low pressure south of Mexico gained enough organization to be declared as Tropical Depression Six-E.

Current storm information

As of 8 a.m. PDT (1500 UTC) July 12, Tropical Storm Fabio is located within 30 nautical miles of 13°36′N 107°18′W / 13.6°N 107.3°W / 13.6; -107.3 (Fabio), about 665 mi (1070 km) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California; About 425 mi (680 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are 35 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 InHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 8 knots (9 mph, 15 km/h).

For latest official information see:

Timeline of recent events

Main article: Timeline of the 2012 Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Carlotta (2012)Hurricane Bud (2012)Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale

July

July 4
  • 0800 UTC (1 a.m. PDT) - Tropical Depression Four-E forms from an area of low pressure about 470 miles south of Manzanillo.
July 5
  • 1500 UTC (8 a.m. PDT) - Tropical Depression Four-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Daniel.
July 7
  • 0300 UTC (8 p.m. PDT July 6) - Tropical Storm Daniel strengthens into a Category 1 hurricane.
  • 2100 UTC (2 p.m. PDT) - Tropical Depression Five-E forms from an area of low pressure about 495 south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.
July 8
  • 0300 UTC (8 p.m. PDT July 7) - Hurricane Daniel strengthens into a Category 2 hurricane.
  • 0300 UTC (8 p.m. PDT July 7) - Tropical Depression Five-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Emilia.
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Daniel strengthens into a Category 3 hurricane.
  • 1500 UTC (8 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Daniel weakens to a Category 2 hurricane.
July 9
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Daniel weakens to a Category 1 hurricane.
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Tropical Storm Emilia strengthens into a Category 1 hurricane.
  • 1500 UTC (8 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Emilia strengthens into a Category 2 hurricane.
July 10
  • 0300 UTC (8 p.m. PDT July 9) - Hurricane Emilia strengthens into to a Category 3 hurricane.
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Daniel weakens to a tropical storm.
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Emilia strengthens into a Category 4 hurricane.
  • 2100 UTC (2 p.m. PDT) - Hurricane Emilia weakens into a Category 3 hurricane.
July 11
  • 0300 UTC (8 p.m. PDT July 10) - Hurricane Emilia weakens into a Category 2 hurricane.
  • 2100 UTC (11 a.m. HST) - Tropical Storm Daniel weakens to a tropical depression.
  • 2100 UTC (2 p.m. PDT) - Hurricane Emilia strengthens back into a Category 3 hurricane.
July 12
  • 0300 UTC (5 p.m. HST July 11) - Tropical Depression Daniel degenerates into a remnant low 1015 mi (1630 km) east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Tropical Depression Six-E forms about 400 mi (640 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
  • 0900 UTC (2 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Emilia weakens back into a Category 2 hurricane.
  • 1400 UTC (7 a.m. PDT) - Tropical Storm Six-E strengthens into Tropical Storm Fabio.
  • 1400 UTC (7 a.m. PDT) - Hurricane Emilia strengthens back into a Category 3 hurricane.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 14.7
(0.123) 		Daniel 4 3.51 Carlotta
2 14.7 Emilia 5 1.18 Aletta
3 7.15 Bud 6 0.123 Fabio
Total: 41.4 (0.123)

The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. Broadly speaking, the ACE is a measure of the power of a hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have high ACEs. ACE is calculated for only full advisories on specifically tropical systems reaching or exceeding wind speeds of 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h), or tropical storm strength. Accordingly, tropical depressions are not included here. The ACE also does not include subtropical storms. Later the NHC reexamines the data, and produces a final report on each storm, which can lead to the ACE for a storm being revised either upward or downward. Until the final reports are issued, ACEs are, therefore, provisional.

The figures in parentheses are for storms in the Central Pacific basin west of 140°W; those not in parentheses are for the Eastern Pacific basin.

Storm names

The following names will be used for named storms that form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2013. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2018 season. This is the same list used in the 2006 season.

  • Aletta
  • Bud
  • Carlotta
  • Daniel
  • Emilia (active)
  • Fabio (active)
  • Gilma (unused)
  • Hector (unused)
  • Ileana (unused)
  • John (unused)
  • Kristy (unused)
  • Lane (unused)
  • Miriam (unused)
  • Norman (unused)
  • Olivia (unused)
  • Paul (unused)
  • Rosa (unused)
  • Sergio (unused)
  • Tara (unused)
  • Vicente (unused)
  • Willa (unused)
  • Xavier (unused)
  • Yolanda (unused)
  • Zeke (unused)

The Central Pacific season originates around the islands of Hawaii. There are several names that are in four lists; the next four names to be used are shown below.

  • Pewa (unused)
  • Unala (unused)
  • Wali (unused)
  • Ana (unused)

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms in the 2012 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their durations, peak intensities, names, landfall(s), damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but are still storm-related. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low. All of the damage figures are in 2012 USD.

Saffir–Simpson scale
TD TS C1 C2 C3 C4 C5
2012 Pacific hurricane season statistics
Storm
name 		Dates active Storm category
at peak intensity 		Max 1-min
wind
mph (km/h) 		Min.
press.
(mbar) 		Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Ref(s)
Aletta May 14 – May 19 Tropical storm 50 (85) 1000 None None None
Bud May 21 – May 26 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 960 Western Mexico Minimal None
Carlotta June 13 – June 16 Category 2 hurricane 105 (165) 976 Southern Mexico (Oaxaca) Unknown 2 (1)
Daniel July 4 – July 11 Category 3 hurricane 115 (185) 961 None None None
Emilia July 7 – Currently active Category 4 hurricane 140 (220) 945 None None None
Fabio July 12 – Currently active Tropical storm 40 (65) 1002 None None None
Season aggregates
6 systems May 14 – Currently active    140 mph (220 km/h) 945 Unknown 2 (1)  

See also

References

  1. ^ Jack Beven (May 12, 2012). "Special Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 15, 2012.
  2. ^ Todd Kimberlain (May 14, 2012). "Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 24, 2012.
  3. ^ Richard Pasch (May 15, 2012). "Tropical Storm Aletta Public Advisory Number 1". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved May 15, 2012.
  4. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205170831/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205170831
  5. ^ "Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook". National Hurricane Center. 2012-05-17. Retrieved 2012-06-24.
  6. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205172335/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205172335
  7. ^ Cangialosi, John (19 May 2012). "Post-Tropical Cyclone ALETTA Discussion 21". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 22 May 2012.
  8. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205200000/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205200000
  9. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205151740/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205151740
  10. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205210237/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205210237
  11. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205250534/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205250534
  12. ^ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/gtwo/epac/201205250836/index.php?basin=epac&current_issuance=201205250836

Template:2010-2019 Pacific hurricane seasons

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