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2013 Australian federal election

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Next Australian federal election
← 2010 On or before 30 November 2013
  Julia Gillard Tony Abbott
Leader Julia Gillard Tony Abbott
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition
Leader since 24 June 2010 (2010-06-24) 1 December 2009 (2009-12-01)
Leader's seat Lalor Warringah
Last election 72 seats 72 seats
Current seats 71 seats 72 seats
Seats needed Increase5 Increase4
2010 TPP 50.1% 49.9%
TPP polling 50% 50%
BPM polling 46% 32%
Incumbent Prime Minister

Julia Gillard
Labor



The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 44th Parliament of Australia. The election must be held by 30 November 2013 and will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the current Parliament as elected at the 2010 federal election. It is the first hung parliament since the 1940 federal election.

Australia has compulsory voting (since 1925) and uses preferential ballot (since 1919) in single-member seats for the House of Representatives and single transferable vote (since 1949) with optional group voting tickets (since 1984) in the proportionally represented Senate. The election will be conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

Current Parliament

House of Representatives

Current House of Representatives seat numbers

Government (71)
  Labor (71)

Opposition
Coalition (72)
  Liberal (44)
  LNP (20)
  Nationals (6)
  Nat. WA (1)
  CLP (1)

Crossbench (7)
  Ind. (5)
  Greens (1)
  KAP (1)
See also: Full national and state-by-state lower house results and maps for the 2010 Australian federal election

At the 2010 federal election, Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition each won 72 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, four short of the requirement for majority government, resulting in the first hung parliament since the 1940 federal election. On the crossbench, one member of the Australian Greens, one member of the National Party of Western Australia, and four independent members held the balance of power. After gaining the support of the Greens and three independents on confidence and supply votes, Labor was able to form a minority government with a 76–74 margin.[1]

Changes in House numbers

On 24 November 2011, Harry Jenkins resigned as Speaker of the House of Representatives and returned to the Labor backbench. Later that day, Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper was elevated to Speaker and quit the Liberal National Party to become an independent. This changed nominal confidence and supply numbers on the floor of the house from 75–74 to 76–73.[2][3] In January 2012, Andrew Wilkie declined to continue giving confidence to the incumbent government, changing numbers to 75–73 in the event of his abstention, or 75–74 in the event of his support for a vote of no confidence. In April 2012, Labor's Craig Thomson moved to the crossbenches as an independent MP, and in May, WA National Tony Crook moved from the crossbenches to the Nationals, and therefore the Coalition. Changes brought the government to 71 seats, the Coalition 72 seats, and seven crossbenchers.

Pendulum

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2010 and Pre-election pendulum for the Next Australian federal election

Senate

Current Senate seat numbers

Government (31)
  Labor (31)

Opposition
Coalition (34)
  Liberal (24)
  LNP (6)
  Nationals (3)
  CLP (1)

Crossbench (11)
  Greens (9)
  DLP (1)
  Ind. (1)
See also: Full national and state-by-state upper house results for the 2010 Australian federal election

Currently, the 76-seat Senate is made up of senators from the Coalition (34), Australian Labor Party (31), Australian Greens (9), Democratic Labor Party (1), and one independent senator, Nick Xenophon. Labor requires an additional eight non-Labor Senators to form a majority, this means the Greens hold the sole balance of power. Previously the Greens held a shared balance of power with the Family First Party and Xenophon.

Date

Section 28 of the Constitution specifies a maximum term of the House of Representatives of three years.[4] The first meeting of the House following the 2010 election occurred on 28 September 2010,[5] and hence the 43rd Parliament is due to expire by effluxion of time on 27 September 2013.

Section 28 also allows the House to be dissolved earlier than the maximum term. The Prime Minister may advise the Governor-General at any time to dissolve the Parliament and issue writs for a new election, and the Governor-General is generally bound to act on such advice. Of Australia's 42 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907–1910, continued for the full three years, all the others having been dissolved earlier. Consequently, it is not possible to say precisely when the next election will be held, but the latest possible date can be determined.[6]

  • Section 32 of the Constitution requires writs to be issued within ten days from the expiry of the House. If the House expires on 27 September 2013, the writs must be issued by 7 October 2013.
  • Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) provides that nominations of candidates will close at least 10 days but no more than 27 days after the date of the writ.[7] Counting 27 days from 7 October means the last date on which nominations can close is 3 November 2013.
  • Sections 157 and 158 of the CEA provide that election day must be at least 23 days but no more than 31 days after close of nominations, and must be a Saturday.[8][9] The last day that is a Saturday and no more than 31 days following the close of nominations is 30 November 2013. This is therefore the last possible date of the next election.

Scenarios

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of Senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.

Federal elections usually consist of a full election for the lower house, and an election for approximately half the membership of the Senate, held on the same day.[10] However, it is possible for the elections for the Houses to become unsynchronised due to early elections. The Constitution requires a half-Senate election to be held between 1 July 2013 and 30 June 2014, but the first possible date consistent with other requirements would be 3 August 2013. Should the current parliament run to or near its full term (27 September 2013), the elections for the two Houses would coincide.[11] However, if a House of Representatives election is held earlier than 3 August 2013, a separate half-Senate election would be required.[12]

A double dissolution, which would involve the entire parliament being elected, would upset this timetable. A double dissolution would need to occur before 27 March 2013; if it occurred on the last constitutionally possible date, the election would be held between 4 May and 1 June 2013. ABC election analyst Antony Green has opined that it is highly unlikely that such a double dissolution would occur, as the constitutional 'trigger' for such an election (a bill failing to pass through the Senate, or being unacceptably amended by the Senate on two separate occasions three months apart) is unlikely to be met. Moreover, even if such a 'trigger' were achieved, Green believes that Labor is unlikely to seek a double dissolution election. If the Coalition formed government without an election, it could call a double dissolution election prior to 27 March 2013 if the necessary trigger conditions were met.[13]

Hung parliament

The current parliament is a hung parliament. It is therefore possible that the government may change without an election if the cross-bench members decide to change their support to the opposition. This last happened following the 1940 federal election when crossbenchers changed their support from the UAP's Robert Menzies to Labor's John Curtin.[14] It is also possible that the government might fall with no one party or group being able to command the confidence of the House of Representatives, which would trigger an election. The Government could lose its majority because a member of one of the government parties died, resigned, or otherwise lost office, triggering a by-election. To avoid triggering a general election in these circumstances, the Prime Minister could advise the Governor-General to suspend ("prorogue") parliament until the outcome of the by-election was known. Alternatively, the Opposition could agree to voluntarily suspend one of its number voting so that the government retains an effective majority. This is a practice known as "pairing".[12]

Retiring MPs and Senators

Where a Member of the House of Representatives does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end at the dissolution of the parliament.

Where a Senator does not renominate to contest the election, their term will end on 30 June 2014, unless they represent the Australian Capital Territory or the Northern Territory, in which case their term will end on the day before polling day.

Members and Senators who have indicated their intention to retire are:

Labor

Liberal

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is performed via random telephone number selection in city and country areas, usually each fortnight from Friday to Sunday. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1000 electors, with the declared margin of error at ±3 percent.

House of Representatives
(lower house) polling
Primary vote TPP vote
ALP Coa Gre Oth ALP Coa
Sep 2012 36% 41% 12% 50% 50%
2–4 Sep 2012 33% 46% 8% 13% 45% 55%
17–19 Aug 2012 35% 45% 11% 9% 47% 53%
3–5 Aug 2012 33% 45% 10% 12% 46% 54%
20–22 Jul 2012 28% 46% 11% 15% 44% 56%
6–8 Jul 2012 31% 48% 11% 10% 44% 56%
22–24 Jun 2012 30% 46% 12% 12% 45% 55%
7–10 Jun 2012 31% 44% 14% 11% 46% 54%
25–27 May 2012 32% 46% 12% 10% 46% 54%
11–13 May 2012 30% 45% 12% 13% 45% 55%
27–29 Apr 2012 27% 51% 11% 11% 41% 59%
13–15 Apr 2012 29% 48% 12% 11% 44% 56%
23–25 Mar 2012 28% 47% 11% 14% 43% 57%
9–11 Mar 2012 31% 43% 12% 14% 47% 53%
24–26 Feb 2012 35% 45% 11% 9% 47% 53%
10–12 Feb 2012 32% 46% 11% 11% 45% 55%
27–29 Jan 2012 30% 45% 12% 13% 46% 54%
2–4 Dec 2011 31% 44% 13% 12% 46% 54%
18–20 Nov 2011 30% 48% 10% 12% 43% 57%
4–6 Nov 2011 32% 44% 12% 12% 47% 53%
21–23 Oct 2011 29% 45% 15% 11% 46% 54%
7–9 Oct 2011 29% 49% 12% 10% 43% 57%
16–18 Sep 2011 26% 48% 13% 13% 42% 58%
2–4 Sep 2011 27% 50% 12% 11% 41% 59%
19–21 Aug 2011 27% 47% 14% 12% 43% 57%
5–7 Aug 2011 29% 47% 12% 12% 44% 56%
22–24 Jul 2011 29% 47% 13% 11% 44% 56%
8–10 Jul 2011 27% 49% 12% 12% 42% 58%
24–26 Jun 2011 30% 46% 11% 13% 45% 55%
10–12 Jun 2011 31% 46% 11% 12% 45% 55%
27–29 May 2011 34% 44% 14% 8% 48% 52%
13–15 May 2011 33% 46% 10% 11% 46% 54%
29 Apr – 1 May 2011 33% 44% 12% 11% 47% 53%
1–3 Apr 2011 32% 45% 12% 12% 45% 55%
18–20 Mar 2011 36% 40% 12% 12% 51% 49%
4–6 Mar 2011 30% 45% 15% 10% 46% 54%
18–20 Feb 2011 36% 41% 13% 10% 50% 50%
4–6 Feb 2011 32% 44% 14% 10% 48% 52%
3–5 Dec 2010 34% 41% 14% 11% 50% 50%
19–21 Nov 2010 36% 39% 14% 11% 52% 48%
5–7 Nov 2010 34% 43% 13% 10% 48% 52%
22–24 Oct 2010 33% 43% 14% 10% 48% 52%
8–10 Oct 2010 35% 42% 14% 9% 50% 50%
10–12 Sep 2010 34% 41% 14% 11% 50% 50%
2010 election 38.0% 43.3% 11.8% 7.0% 50.1% 49.9%
17–19 Aug 2010 36.2% 43.4% 13.9% 6.5% 50.2% 49.8%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
Better Prime Minister and satisfaction polling^
Better PM Gillard Abbott
Gillard Abbott Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
2–4 Sep 2012 39% 38% 31% 57% 31% 59%
17–19 Aug 2012 38% 38% 27% 60% 34% 54%
3–5 Aug 2012 36% 38% 29% 59% 32% 56%
20–22 Jul 2012 36% 40% 29% 62% 30% 61%
6–8 Jul 2012 36% 39% 27% 61% 32% 57%
22–24 Jun 2012 39% 38% 30% 59% 31% 58%
7–10 Jun 2012 42% 38% 32% 58% 32% 59%
25–27 May 2012 40% 37% 30% 60% 31% 60%
11–13 May 2012 36% 40% 27% 63% 34% 56%
27–29 Apr 2012 36% 41% 28% 63% 33% 55%
13–15 Apr 2012 39% 41% 28% 62% 35% 54%
23–25 Mar 2012 40% 37% 31% 58% 32% 58%
9–11 Mar 2012 39% 37% 28% 62% 32% 58%
24–26 Feb 2012 36% 38% 26% 64% 31% 57%
10–12 Feb 2012 37% 40% 32% 57% 36% 52%
27–29 Jan 2012 40% 37% 33% 55% 32% 55%
2–4 Dec 2011 43% 36% 36% 56% 33% 57%
18–20 Nov 2011 40% 35% 34% 55% 34% 55%
4–6 Nov 2011 39% 40% 30% 60% 34% 57%
21–23 Oct 2011 36% 39% 31% 61% 34% 55%
7–9 Oct 2011 35% 40% 28% 60% 36% 53%
16–18 Sep 2011 35% 40% 27% 61% 34% 54%
2–4 Sep 2011 34% 43% 23% 68% 39% 52%
19–21 Aug 2011 38% 39% 29% 61% 36% 55%
5–7 Aug 2011 39% 40% 33% 58% 39% 52%
22–24 Jul 2011 40% 41% 32% 59% 39% 52%
8–10 Jul 2011 38% 43% 30% 59% 42% 49%
24–26 Jun 2011 39% 40% 28% 62% 39% 52%
10–12 Jun 2011 41% 38% 30% 55% 35% 52%
27–29 May 2011 44% 37% 35% 54% 37% 53%
13–15 May 2011 42% 38% 34% 55% 38% 51%
29 Apr – 1 May 2011 45% 36% 38% 49% 42% 48%
1–3 Apr 2011 46% 37% 39% 49% 36% 53%
18–20 Mar 2011 50% 31% 40% 47% 33% 54%
4–6 Mar 2011 45% 36% 39% 51% 39% 51%
18–20 Feb 2011 53% 31% 50% 39% 38% 49%
4–6 Feb 2011 48% 35% 45% 42% 42% 44%
3–5 Dec 2010 52% 32% 45% 38% 42% 43%
19–21 Nov 2010 54% 31% 46% 37% 42% 45%
5–7 Nov 2010 49% 34% 41% 41% 44% 42%
22–24 Oct 2010 53% 32% 44% 37% 41% 46%
8–10 Oct 2010 52% 31% 48% 33% 39% 47%
10–12 Sep 2010 50% 34% 44% 36% 48% 38%
2010 election – – – – – –
17–19 Aug 2010 50% 37% 44% 43% 42% 50%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".

Polls prior to elections

ALP = Australian Labor Party, L+NP = grouping of Liberal/National/LNP/CLP Coalition Parties (and predecessors), Oth = other parties and independents.

House of Representatives results and polling
Primary vote TPP vote Seats
ALP L+NP Oth. ALP L+NP ALP L+NP Oth. Total
21 Aug 2010 election 38.0% 43.3% 18.8% 50.1% 49.9% 72 72 6 150
17–19 Aug 2010 poll 36.2% 43.4% 20.4% 50.2% 49.8%
24 Nov 2007 election 43.4% 42.1% 14.5% 52.7% 47.3% 83 65 2 150
20–22 Nov 2007 poll 44% 43% 13% 52% 48%
9 Oct 2004 election 37.6% 46.7% 15.7% 47.3% 52.7% 60 87 3 150
6–7 Oct 2004 poll 39% 45% 16% 50% 50%
10 Nov 2001 election 37.8% 43.0% 19.2% 49.0% 51.0% 65 82 3 150
7–8 Nov 2001 poll 38.5% 46% 15.5% 47% 53%
3 Oct 1998 election 40.1% 39.5% 20.4% 51.0% 49.0% 67 80 1 148
30 Sep – 1 Oct 1998 poll 44% 40% 16% 53% 47%
2 Mar 1996 election 38.7% 47.3% 14.0% 46.4% 53.6% 49 94 5 148
28–29 Feb 1996 poll 40.5% 48% 11.5% 46.5% 53.5%
13 Mar 1993 election 44.9% 44.3% 10.7% 51.4% 48.6% 80 65 2 147
11 Mar 1993 poll 44% 45% 11% 49.5% 50.5%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.

References

  1. ^ By online political correspondent Emma Rodgers (7 September 2010). "Labor clings to power". ABC News. Retrieved 8 September 2010. {{cite web}}: |author= has generic name (help)
  2. ^ "Slipper long plotted against us: LNP". News.smh.com.au. 24 November 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  3. ^ Renee, By (27 November 2011). "How Labor lured Peter Slipper to Speaker's chair in Federal Parliament". News.com.au. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  4. ^ "Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  5. ^ "Parliament to sit on September 28". News.smh.com.au. 9 September 2010. Retrieved 15 September 2010.
  6. ^ Rob Lundie, Australian elections timetable, Parliament of Australia
  7. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  8. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  9. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  10. ^ The four Senators from the territories have their terms tied to the House of Representatives.
  11. ^ "Antony Green's Election Blog: Timetable for Future Australian Elections". Blogs.abc.net.au. 12 November 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  12. ^ a b "What Will Happen if there is an Early Election?". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. 10 September 2010. Retrieved 15 September 2010.
  13. ^ "When can an election be held?". Blogs.abc.net.au. 25 August 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  14. ^ "Hung Parliament – Where to from here?". Blogs.abc.net.au. 27 August 2010. Retrieved 8 September 2010.
  15. ^ Jeremy Thompson (29 August 2011). "ABC News". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  16. ^ "Federal MP Sharon Grierson announces retirement". theherald.com.au. 18 July 2012. Retrieved 18 July 2012.
  17. ^ "Jenkins announces retirement from politics". abc.net.au. 26 July 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  18. ^ "Senate President Hogg announces retirement". ABC News. 10 August 2012. Retrieved 10 August 2012.
  19. ^ "Lib MP to quit federal politics". ninemsn. 25 January 2012. Retrieved 25 January 2012.
  20. ^ a b Name (required). "The Body Politic". Bodypoliticaus.wordpress.com. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  21. ^ "Lib speaks for himself, defies gag by Abbott". The Canberra Times. 25 September 2010.
  22. ^ "The World Today". Abc.net.au. 15 August 2011. Retrieved 17 March 2012.
  23. ^ "Libs search for new senators". The West Australian. 10 April 2012.
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