IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
| Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
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The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will be the fifth in a series of such reports. The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects and options for adaptation and mitigation.
The Fifth Assessment Report is now underway and is expected to be finalized in 2014. As has been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 will be developed through a scoping process which involves climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular representatives from governments. As a first step, experts, governments and organizations involved in the Fourth Assessment Report have been asked to submit comments and observations in writing. These submissions are currently being analysed by members of the Bureau.[1]
Current Status
(As of August 2011)
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is now underway. It will consist of three Working Group (WG) Reports and a Synthesis Report, to be completed in 2013/2014:
WG I: The Physical Science Basis - mid September 2013
WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability - mid March 2014
WG III: Mitigation of Climate Change - early April 2014
AR5 Synthesis Report (SYR) - October 2014 The AR5 will provide an update of knowledge on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change. Information about the outline and other content to be addressed can be found in the AR5 reference document and SYR Scoping document.
More than 800 authors, selected from around 3000 nominations, are involved in writing the reports. First Lead Authors meetings have been held. For the schedule of AR5 related meetings, review periods, and other important dates, please refer to the calendar.
A number of workshops and expert meetings, in support of the assessment process, have been held.
Authors and Editors
In March 2010, the IPCC received approximately 3,000 Author nominations from experts around the world. At the Bureau session held in Geneva, 19–20 May 2010, the three working groups presented their selected authors and review editors for the AR5. Each of the selected scientists, specialists and experts was nominated in accordance with IPCC procedures, by respective national IPCC Focal-Points, by approved observer organizations, or by the Bureau. The IPCC received 50% more nominations of experts to participate in AR5 than it did for AR4. A total of 559 authors and review editors had been selected for AR4 from 2,000 proposed nominees. On 23 June 2010 the IPCC announced the release of the final list of selected Coordinating Lead Authors, comprising 831 Experts who are drawn from fields including meteorology, physics, oceanography, statistics, engineering, ecology, social sciences and economics. In comparison to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), participation from developing countries was increased, reflecting the on-going efforts to improve regional coverage in the AR5. About 30% of authors will come from developing countries or economies in transition. More than 60% of the experts chosen are new to the IPCC process, which will bring in new knowledge and perspectives.
Working Group Reports of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) are to be published between 2013 and 2014. These experts will contribute to the AR5, divided between the three working groups (WG) and also to the Synthesis Report to be published in 2014.
- WGI: Focuses on the physical science basis and will include 258 experts.
- WGII: Assesses the impacts, adaptation strategies and vulnerability related to climate change and will involve 302 experts.
- WGIII: Covers mitigation response strategies in an integrated risk and uncertainty framework and its assessments will be carried out by 271 experts.
Current documents (As of 23 June 2010)
- Working Group I Authors List (WGI): Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis.
- Working Group II Authors List (WGII): Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
- Working Group III Authors List (WGIII): Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change.
Climate Change 2013: Report Overview
On 23 June 2010 the IPCC announced the release of the final list of selected Coordinating Lead Authors, comprising 831 Experts. The Working Group Reports are to be published between 2013 and 2014. These experts will also provide contributions to the Synthesis Report to be published in 2014.[1]
The Fifth Assessment Report (Climate Change 2013) will be released in four distinct sections:
- Working Group I Report (WGI)
- Working Group II Report (WGII)
- Working Group III Report (WGIII)
- The Synthesis Report (SYR)
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
The Physical Science Basis
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
Chapter 3: Observations: Oceans
Chapter 4: Observations: Cryosphere
Chapter 5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives
Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
Chapter 7: Clouds and Aerosols
Chapter 8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
Chapter 9: Evaluation of Climate Models
Chapter 10: Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
Chapter 11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
Chapter 12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
Chapter 13: Sea Level Change
Chapter 14: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability
Part A: Global and sectoral aspects
Chapter 1: Point of departure
Chapter 2: Foundations for decisionmaking
Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their Uses
Chapter 3: Freshwater resources
Chapter 4: Terrestrial and inland water systems
Chapter 5: Coastal systems and low-lying areas
Chapter 6: Ocean systems
Chapter 7: Food production systems and food security
Human Settlements, Industry, and Infrastructure
Chapter 8: Urban Areas
Chapter 9: Rural Areas
Chapter 10: Key economic sectors and services
Human Health, Well-Being, and Security
Chapter 11: Human health
Chapter 12: Human security
Chapter 13: Livelihoods and poverty
Adaptation
Chapter 14: Adaptation needs and options
Chapter 15: Adaptation planning and implementation
Chapter 16: Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits
Chapter 17: Economics of adaptation
Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities
Chapter 18: Detection and attribution of observed impacts
Chapter 19: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities
Chapter 20: Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development
Part B: Regional aspects
Chapter 21: Regional context
Regional Chapters
Chapter 22: Africa
Chapter 23: Europe
Chapter 24: Asia
Chapter 25: Australasia
Chapter 26: North America
Chapter 27: Central and South America
Chapter 28: Polar Regions
Chapter 29: Small Islands
Ch. 30 — Open Oceans
Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change
1. Introduction
2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies
3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
4. Sustainable Development and Equity
5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6. Assessing Transformation Pathways
7. Energy Systems
8. Transport
9. Buildings
10. Industry
11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)
12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning
13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments
14. Regional Development and Cooperation
15. National and Sub-National Policies and Institutions
16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues
Other
It is assumed that the Next Generation Earth System Models[2][3] (e.g. HadGEM2[4]) will produce hundreds of terabytes to perhaps tens of petabytes of climate model data for analysis.[5]
Climate model simulations in support of AR5 will use a different approach to account for increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than in the previous report. Instead of the scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios the models are performing simulations for various Representative Concentration Pathways.
After some flaws and errors were found in the IPCC AR4 in 2009,[6] the U.N. decided to create a science panel to review "how the IPCC operates".[7]
See also
References
- ^ a b IPCC website
- ^ Earth System Models: The Next Generation
- ^ http://www.clivar.org/organization/southern/CISM_Workshop_Report.pdf Building a Next-Generation Community Ice Sheet Model CLIVAR
- ^ Collins, William (2009), "The Met Office Hadley Centre next generation Earth System Model", IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci., 6 (5): 052007, doi:10.1088/1755-1307/6/5/052007
{{citation}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter:|month=(help); Unknown parameter|coauthors=ignored (|author=suggested) (help) - ^ Climate model data management - future challenges
- ^ Ball, Jeffrey; Johnson, Keith (February 26, 2010), "Push to Oversimplify at Climate Panel", Wall Street Journal
{{citation}}: Unknown parameter|lastauthoramp=ignored (|name-list-style=suggested) (help) - ^ Creagh, Sunanda (February 26, 2010), "U.N. to create science panel to review IPCC", Reuters.
