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Kenyan presidential election, 2013

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Kenyan presidential election, 2013
← 2007 4 March 2013 (2013-03-04)
14.3 million registered voters
50% + 1 votes needed to win
Turnout86%[1]
  File:Kenya's Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta addresses Nyanza Professionals.jpg
Nominee Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga Musalia Mudavadi
Party The National Alliance (Kenya) ODM United Democratic Forum (Kenya)
Alliance Jubilee CORD Amani Coalition
Running mate William Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
Popular vote 6,173,433 5,340,546 483,981
Percentage 50.07% 43.31% 3.93%
Counties won 20 27 + Diaspora 1
Counties with 25% vote 42 30 3
President before election

Mwai Kibaki
PNU

Elected President

Uhuru Kenyatta
The National Alliance (Kenya)

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A presidential election was held as part of the Kenyan general election on March 4, 2013. Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was not eligible to contest as he was constitutionally barred having served the maximum 2 terms. As a result of clauses in the new constitution, it was the first presidential election in Kenya where presidential candidates would've potentially faced a second round run-off between the first and the second if no-one achieved a simple majority in the first round and 25% of the votes in at least 24 counties.[2][3] Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta was on March 9th, 2013 declared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, the President-elect after meeting the constitutional threshold. Prime-Minister Raila Odinga will contest the results at the Supreme Court of Kenya.[4]

Candidates

On 24 January 2013, the IEBC begun collecting the initial batch of documents to be used for processing the names of presidential candidates who will contest. Candidate were required to present a letter expressing intention to contest the presidency and lists of 2,000 signatures from supporters in more than half of the 47 counties.[5] The following are the candidates were on the ballot after being cleared by the IEBC on January 29–30, 2013:

Candidate Current Position Running Mate Coalition Party
Mohammed Abduba Dida Former High School Teacher Joshua Odongo ARC
Raila Odinga[6] Prime Minister of Kenya Kalonzo Musyoka CORD ODM
Uhuru Kenyatta[7] Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya William Ruto Jubilee Alliance TNA
Musalia Mudavadi[8] Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni Amani Coalition UDF
Martha Karua[9] MP, Gichugu Constituency Augustine Lotodo -- NARC-Kenya
Peter Kenneth [10] MP, Gatanga Constituency Ronald Osumba Eagle Alliance KNC
James ole Kiyiapi[11] Former Permanent Secretary, Education Ministry Winnie Kaburu -- RBK
Paul Muite Former MP for Kikuyu Constituency Shem Ochuodho -- Safina

Results

The first round of the presidential election took place on March 4, 2013. Tallying of votes is currently ongoing. If no candidate wins 50% plus one vote in the first round, a second round will be held on April 11, 2013.

Official Results

Presidential Candidate/ Running mate Coalition/ Party Popular Vote % of Cast Votes % of Valid Votes
Uhuru Kenyatta/ William Ruto Jubilee Alliance/TNA 6,173,433 50.07% 50.51%
Raila Odinga/ Kalonzo Musyoka Coalition for Reforms and Democracy/ODM 5,340,546 43.31% 43.70%
Musalia Mudavadi/ Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni Amani Coalition/UDF 483,981 3.93% 3.96%
Peter Kenneth/ Ronald Osumba Eagle Alliance/ KNC 72,786 0.59% 0.60%
Mohammed Abduba Dida/ Joshua Odongo Onono Alliance for Real Change 52,848 0.43% 0.43%
Martha Karua/ Augustine Lotodo National Rainbow Coalition-Kenya 43,881 0.36% 0.36%
James ole Kiyiapi/ Winnie Kaburu Restore and Build Kenya 40,998 0.33% 0.34%
Paul Muite/ Shem Ochuodho Safina Party 12,580 0.10% 0.10%
Votes Cast 12,330,028 100%
Valid votes 12,221,053 99.12%
Spoilt votes 108,975 0.88%
Contested votes -- --%
100.00% reporting ( 291 of 291 Constituencies)
Voter turnout 86.00%

Regional Results

Regions/Counties won by Uhuru Kenyatta/ William Ruto
Regions/Counties won by Raila Odinga/ Kalonzo Musyoka
Regions/Counties won by Musalia Mudavadi/ Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
REGION KENYATTA % ODINGA % MUDAVADI % KENNETH % DIDA % KARUA % KIYIAPI % MUITE % REJECTED % VALID VOTES VOTES CAST REG VOTERS TURNOUT
CENTRAL 1,895,075 93.92% 84,010 4.16% 4,284 0.21% 8,268 0.41% 1,600 0.08% 6,669 0.33% 3,558 0.18% 906 0.04% 13,319 0.66% 2,004,370 2,017,689 2,192,323 92.03%
COAST 158,083 19.34% 612,057 74.90% 10,564 1.29% 7,820 0.96% 10,569 1.29% 4,594 0.56% 3,836 0.47% 1,156 0.14% 8,530 1.04% 808,679 817,209 1,164,984 70.15%
EASTERN 848,234 46.96% 881,455 48.80% 12,802 0.71% 11,532 0.64% 12,949 0.72% 9,666 0.54% 8,606 0.48% 3,690 0.20% 17,447 0.97% 1,788,934 1,806,381 2,097,105 86.14%
NAIROBI 659,490 46.75% 691,156 49.00% 22,061 1.56% 15,662 1.11% 3,493 0.25% 4,636 0.33% 1,730 0.12% 248 0.02% 12,187 0.86% 1,398,476 1,410,663 1,728,801 81.60%
NORTH-EASTERN 175,032 59.58% 98,802 33.63% 834 0.28% 2,657 0.90% 14,266 4.86% 305 0.10% 305 0.10% 147 0.05% 1,408 0.48% 292,348 293,756 354,061 82.97%
NYANZA 181,961 10.47% 1,508,776 86.83% 15,257 0.88% 5,921 0.34% 1,981 0.11% 4,632 0.27% 4,470 0.26% 1,687 0.10% 12,837 0.74% 1,724,685 1,737,522 1,939,730 89.58%
RIFT-VALLEY 2,188,422 72.22% 707,541 23.35% 64,295 2.12% 16,214 0.54% 4,352 0.14% 8,068 0.27% 12,321 0.41% 2,398 0.08% 26,584 0.88% 3,003,611 3,030,195 3,440,843 88.07%
WESTERN 66,185 5.45% 755,525 62.22% 353,864 29.14% 4,634 0.38% 3,632 0.30% 5,280 0.43% 6,165 0.51% 2,347 0.19% 16,653 1.37% 1,197,632 1,214,285 1,432,049 84.79%
DIASPORA 951 40.85% 1,224 52.58% 20 0.86% 78 3.35% 6 0.26% 31 1.33% 7 0.30% 1 0.04% 10 0.43% 2,318 2,328 2,637 88.28%

County Results

COUNTY KENYATTA % ODINGA % MUDAVADI % KENNETH % DIDA % KARUA % KIYIAPI % MUITE % REJECTED % VALID VOTES VOTES CAST REG VOTERS TURNOUT
MOMBASA 64,793 23.79% 189,985 69.77% 4,500 1.65% 3,028 1.11% 5,695 2.09% 748 0.27% 421 0.15% 144 0.05% 3,004 1.10% 269,314 272,318 408,747 66.62%
KWALE 17,633 14.04% 101,407 80.74% 1,492 1.19% 1,603 1.28% 631 0.50% 970 0.77% 653 0.52% 237 0.19% 975 0.78% 124,626 125,601 174,443 72.00%
KILIFI 23,386 10.72% 182,708 83.74% 2,397 1.10% 1,877 0.86% 1,518 0.70% 1,771 0.81% 1,691 0.78% 444 0.20% 2,382 1.09% 215,792 218,174 336,132 64.91%
TANA-RIVER 22,419 34.71% 39,666 61.41% 457 0.71% 362 0.56% 674 1.04% 227 0.35% 204 0.32% 71 0.11% 509 0.79% 64,080 64,589 79,454 81.29%
LAMU 17,677 40.02% 22,962 51.98% 688 1.56% 250 0.57% 1,692 3.83% 81 0.18% 127 0.29% 57 0.13% 637 1.44% 43,534 44,171 52,346 84.38%
TAITA-TAVETA 12,175 13.18% 75,329 81.56% 1,030 1.12% 700 0.76% 359 0.39% 797 0.86% 740 0.80% 203 0.22% 1,023 1.11% 91,333 92,356 113,862 81.11%
GARISSA 41,672 45.34% 44,724 48.67% 384 0.42% 694 0.76% 3,653 3.97% 110 0.12% 101 0.11% 44 0.05% 518 0.56% 91,382 91,900 115,202 79.77%
WAJIR 38,927 38.83% 49,712 49.59% 389 0.39% 1,683 1.68% 8,611 8.59% 154 0.15% 148 0.15% 71 0.07% 544 0.54% 99,695 100,239 118,091 84.88%
MANDERA 94,433 92.93% 4,366 4.30% 61 0.06% 280 0.28% 2,002 1.97% 41 0.04% 56 0.06% 32 0.03% 346 0.34% 101,271 101,617 120,768 84.14%
MARSABIT 42,406 47.18% 43,843 48.78% 296 0.33% 187 0.21% 2,548 2.83% 105 0.12% 142 0.16% 34 0.04% 321 0.36% 89,561 89,882 104,615 85.92%
ISIOLO 26,401 55.41% 14,108 29.61% 146 0.31% 198 0.42% 6,330 13.29% 70 0.15% 80 0.17% 25 0.05% 288 0.60% 47,358 47,646 54,462 87.48%
MERU 384,290 89.41% 32,447 7.55% 1,364 0.32% 3,035 0.71% 747 0.17% 1,715 0.40% 1,256 0.29% 540 0.13% 4,425 1.03% 425,394 429,819 487,265 88.21%
THARAKA 128,397 92.38% 7,120 5.12% 347 0.25% 612 0.44% 246 0.18% 544 0.39% 539 0.39% 137 0.10% 1,042 0.75% 137,942 138,984 155,487 89.39%
EMBU 177,676 89.00% 15,912 7.97% 682 0.34% 1,082 0.54% 411 0.21% 1,102 0.55% 758 0.38% 295 0.15% 1,727 0.87% 197,918 199,645 227,286 87.84%
KITUI 40,752 14.76% 219,588 79.53% 4,234 1.53% 2,193 0.79% 924 0.33% 2,611 0.95% 2,121 0.77% 1,052 0.38% 2,629 0.95% 273,475 276,104 324,673 85.04%
MACHAKOS 35,660 9.58% 319,594 85.89% 3,277 0.88% 2,715 0.73% 925 0.25% 2,086 0.56% 2,160 0.58% 821 0.22% 4,840 1.30% 367,238 372,078 445,096 83.59%
MAKUENI 12,652 5.02% 228,843 90.73% 2,456 0.97% 1,510 0.60% 818 0.32% 1,433 0.57% 1,550 0.61% 786 0.31% 2,175 0.86% 250,048 252,223 298,221 84.58%
NYANDARUA 232,808 97.11% 2,889 1.21% 498 0.21% 504 0.21% 162 0.07% 526 0.22% 500 0.21% 88 0.04% 1,772 0.74% 237,975 239,747 255,984 93.66%
NYERI 318,880 96.33% 5,638 1.70% 641 0.19% 1,044 0.32% 362 0.11% 1,066 0.32% 744 0.22% 184 0.06% 2,465 0.74% 328,559 331,024 356,380 92.89%
KIRINYAGA 231,868 95.99% 3,471 1.44% 353 0.15% 655 0.27% 265 0.11% 2,438 1.01% 700 0.29% 131 0.05% 1,667 0.69% 239,881 241,548 265,290 91.05%
MURANGA 406,334 95.92% 10,312 2.43% 601 0.14% 1,811 0.43% 332 0.08% 927 0.22% 779 0.18% 187 0.04% 2,352 0.56% 421,283 423,635 452,841 93.55%
KIAMBU 705,185 90.21% 61,700 7.89% 2,191 0.28% 4,254 0.54% 479 0.06% 1,712 0.22% 835 0.11% 316 0.04% 5,063 0.65% 776,672 781,735 861,828 90.71%
TURKANA 30,235 29.85% 68,402 67.53% 533 0.53% 375 0.37% 179 0.18% 482 0.48% 490 0.48% 180 0.18% 408 0.40% 100,876 101,284 132,885 76.22%
WEST-POKOT 79,772 73.33% 24,962 22.95% 1,378 1.27% 636 0.58% 135 0.12% 701 0.64% 372 0.34% 106 0.10% 721 0.66% 108,062 108,783 120,986 89.91%
SAMBURU 22,085 40.94% 31,086 57.62% 122 0.23% 139 0.26% 54 0.10% 70 0.13% 196 0.36% 20 0.04% 177 0.33% 53,772 53,949 61,114 88.28%
TRANS-NZOIA 74,466 37.24% 92,035 46.03% 24,762 12.38% 1,035 0.52% 506 0.25% 966 0.48% 1,077 0.54% 439 0.22% 4,661 2.33% 195,286 199,947 244,640 81.73%
UASIN-GISHU 211,438 74.26% 60,060 21.09% 7,208 2.53% 1,269 0.45% 367 0.13% 547 0.19% 860 0.30% 113 0.04% 2,866 1.01% 281,862 284,728 330,618 86.12%
ELGEYO-MARAKWET 113,680 92.07% 5,993 4.85% 658 0.53% 1,013 0.82% 208 0.17% 374 0.30% 442 0.36% 85 0.07% 1,021 0.83% 122,453 123,474 134,568 91.76%
NANDI 192,587 81.52% 20,549 8.70% 17,497 7.41% 884 0.37% 463 0.20% 599 0.25% 1,211 0.51% 218 0.09% 2,234 0.95% 234,008 236,242 263,254 89.74%
BARINGO 138,488 87.93% 14,824 9.41% 1,201 0.76% 520 0.33% 219 0.14% 495 0.31% 446 0.28% 156 0.10% 1,145 0.73% 156,349 157,494 173,653 90.69%
LAIKIPIA 134,111 85.49% 19,702 12.56% 492 0.31% 541 0.34% 208 0.13% 493 0.31% 437 0.28% 82 0.05% 802 0.51% 156,066 156,868 173,905 90.20%
NAKURU 494,239 80.19% 105,660 17.14% 4,901 0.80% 2,349 0.38% 735 0.12% 1,234 0.20% 1,305 0.21% 380 0.06% 5,515 0.89% 610,803 616,318 695,319 88.64%
NAROK 109,413 46.38% 118,623 50.28% 964 0.41% 2,542 1.08% 282 0.12% 402 0.17% 1,905 0.81% 127 0.05% 1,648 0.70% 234,258 235,906 262,739 89.79%
KAJIADO 138,851 52.36% 117,856 44.44% 1,636 0.62% 2,265 0.85% 208 0.08% 484 0.18% 1,775 0.67% 55 0.02% 2,055 0.77% 263,130 265,185 304,346 87.13%
KERICHO 238,556 90.74% 17,326 6.59% 1,851 0.70% 1,143 0.43% 431 0.16% 505 0.19% 931 0.35% 230 0.09% 1,929 0.73% 260,973 262,902 290,458 90.51%
BOMET 210,501 92.68% 10,463 4.61% 1,092 0.48% 1,503 0.66% 357 0.16% 716 0.32% 874 0.38% 207 0.09% 1,402 0.62% 225,713 227,115 252,358 90.00%
KAKAMEGA 12,469 2.63% 303,120 63.84% 144,962 30.53% 1,554 0.33% 1,247 0.26% 1,583 0.33% 1,993 0.42% 855 0.18% 6,996 1.47% 467,783 474,779 567,460 83.67%
VIHIGA 2,542 1.52% 77,825 46.44% 82,426 49.19% 538 0.32% 467 0.28% 591 0.35% 802 0.48% 303 0.18% 2,079 1.24% 165,494 167,573 202,822 82.62%
BUNGOMA 42,988 12.25% 185,419 52.83% 107,868 30.73% 1,862 0.53% 1,529 0.44% 2,467 0.70% 2,601 0.74% 965 0.27% 5,306 1.51% 345,699 351,005 410,462 85.51%
BUSIA 8,186 3.71% 189,161 85.62% 18,608 8.42% 680 0.31% 389 0.18% 639 0.29% 769 0.35% 224 0.10% 2,272 1.03% 218,656 220,928 251,305 87.91%
SIAYA 884 0.31% 284,031 98.47% 713 0.25% 380 0.13% 94 0.03% 189 0.07% 385 0.13% 36 0.01% 1,735 0.60% 286,712 288,447 311,919 92.47%
KISUMU 4,630 1.33% 337,232 96.64% 3,835 1.10% 586 0.17% 215 0.06% 174 0.05% 367 0.11% 80 0.02% 1,850 0.53% 347,119 348,969 385,820 90.45%
HOMABAY 725 0.24% 303,447 98.93% 557 0.18% 278 0.09% 81 0.03% 154 0.05% 316 0.10% 108 0.04% 1,054 0.34% 305,666 306,720 325,826 94.14%
MIGORI 26,055 9.97% 225,645 86.38% 6,197 2.37% 586 0.22% 253 0.10% 452 0.17% 569 0.22% 135 0.05% 1,323 0.51% 259,892 261,215 283,862 92.02%
KISII 95,596 27.42% 236,831 67.93% 2,632 0.75% 2,511 0.72% 908 0.26% 2,565 0.74% 1,975 0.57% 1,046 0.30% 4,598 1.32% 344,064 348,662 412,945 84.43%
NYAMIRA 54,071 29.47% 121,590 66.26% 1,323 0.72% 1,580 0.86% 430 0.23% 1,098 0.60% 858 0.47% 282 0.15% 2,277 1.24% 181,232 183,509 219,358 83.66%
NAIROBI 659,490 46.75% 691,156 49.00% 22,061 1.56% 15,662 1.11% 3,493 0.25% 4,636 0.33% 1,730 0.12% 248 0.02% 12,187 0.86% 1,398,476 1,410,663 1,728,801 81.60%
DIASPORA 951 40.85% 1,224 52.58% 20 0.86% 78 3.35% 6 0.26% 31 1.33% 7 0.30% 1 0.04% 10 0.43% 2,318 2,328 2,637 88.28%

Electronic Transmission Problems

There were reported a few issues with the electronic transmission of provisional results. The technology used to handle the transmission of results is highlighted here. Some of the problems include:

  1. IEBC Servers ran out of disk space
  2. Multiplication of rejected votes by a factor of eight

Issues

ICC and Integrity Court Cases

A court case was filed seeking to restrain the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission from accepting the nomination of any candidate who has been committed to trial for serious criminal charges under the Kenyan and International law.[12]

Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto are facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) [13] following the International Criminal Court investigation in Kenya as a result of the 2007–2008 post-election violence.

On 29 November 2012, the petitioners withdrew the case.[14] However the following day a new petition was filed by an NGO that was an interested party in the initial case.[15]

High Court Judge David Majanja on 22 January 2013 ruled that three integrity cases filed against presidential candidates and their deputies will be heard jointly. The cases seek to bar Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto from contesting in the March 4 Presidential Election.[16] On 25 January 2013, Chief Justice Willy Mutunga appointed five judges to hear the three cases jointly. The appointed were Mbogholi Msagha, Luka Kimaru, Hellen Omondi, George Kimondo and Pauline Nyamweya. Hearings began on 7 February 2013. On Friday, February 15, 2013 the High Court unanimously rejected the petition.[17][18]

Land

During the campaign, Raila Odinga caused as stir when he implied that that Mr Uhuru Kenyatta was among those in possession huge tracts of land across the country and could therefore not reform the sector.[19] Kenyatta responded by claiming he was clean and that Odinga should respond over his involvement with the Kisumu Molasses Plant. [20] The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) however through its chairman Mzalendo Kibunja stated that such statements were a form of incitement.[21] Kibunja was contradicted by Constitution Implementation Commission (CIC) chairman Charles Nyachae who said candidates cannot be prevented from discussing land issues during their campaign.[22] The recently appointed police Inspector General David Kimaiyo whose name appears in the Ndungu Land Commission's report on illegal/irregular allocation of public land [23] also added his voice asking for politicians not to debate land matters.[24] Rejection of debate on land matters also came from the Anglican Church of Kenya.

Presidential Debates

The Kenyan media announced their sponsorship of presidential debates set to be broadcast between the 26 November 2012 and 11 February 2013 with coverage from eight television stations and 32 radio stations.[25] The debates were postponed to January 2013 to allow completion of the nomination process.[26] On 25 January, the media confirmed the debates would be held on the 11 February 2013 and 25 February 2013.[27] Other organization later sponsored similar though less publicized Presidential and Vice Presidential Debates.

First Media Sponsored Debate

The debate was held on 11 February 2013 at the Brookhouse International School and moderated by Julie Gichuru and Linus Kaikai.[27] The debates were initially meant to be between 6 candidates excluding Muite and Dida. However, Muite's party moved to court and won reprieve allowing them to be added as late participants.[28] They however did not debate on physically similar podiums as the other six candidates.The debate was split into two with a break in between.

First session

Kaikai moderated the first session which begun with candidates introducing themselves and covered the following topics:

Governance and Tribalism

This part of debate centered on the historical role tribalism has paid within governance in Kenya

ICC

This section of the debate centered on the ICC Case facing Mr Kenyatta and his running mate.

Party Politics

This section of the debate focused on the maturity of party politics in Kenya.

Ownership of Migingo Island

During this part of the debate, candidates were asked to comment on the ownership of the controversial Migingo Island that has been the subject of disputes between Kenya and Uganda.

Second session

Gichuru moderated the second section which was drawn from compiled questions from Kenyans and concluded with summaries from the candidates. The questions covered the following topic:

Security

The question initiating this section was: How you plan to curb the Tana River Clashes? This question was asked by a Kenyan from Tana River.

National Unity

The question initiating this section was: What will you do to ensure unity of Kenyans after elections?

Education

The question initiating this section was: What will you do to ensure primary school students transition into High School? This question was asked by a High School Teacher (Irene Omangi).

Healthcare

This section started off with 3 questions asked by a Health worker (Alice Shiundu).

  • What health services do we intend to improve and how?
  • How do you intend to address the issue of Striking Health workers?
  • How will you address chronic illnesses among the poor in community?

Second Media Sponsored Debate

The second media sponsored debate was held on 25 February 2013 at the Brookhouse International School and was moderated by Joe Ageyo and Uduak Amimo.[27] All presidential candidates participated.

Kenyatta's Absence

Uhuru Kenyatta had threatened to withdraw from the second debate alleging bias on the part of moderator Linus Kaikai in his handling of the ICC Case question in the first debate.

Christian Debates

Several Churches and Christian organizations supported by Daystar University held a presidential[29] and vice-presidential[30] debates which were both broadcast on the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation TV station and intermittently on several other TV stations. The debates were held at the Anglican Church of Kenya's All Saints Cathedral. The focus of these debates were issues and question that the Christians bodies identified as important to them. Aside from the lower publicity the, the debates were also characterized by poor turnout by the candidates.

COTU Debate

The Central Organization of Trade Unions (COTU) also held a debate which received low publicity and participation of some of the candidates.[31]

Opinion polling

First round

Pollster Date Sample 1st 2nd 3rd Others
Infotrak Research and Consulting Feb 24 - Feb 26, 2013 3,244 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
46%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
45%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 2%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 0.4%, Mohammed Abduba Dida/Joshua Odongo 0.1% James ole Kiyiapi/Winnie Kaburu 0.1% Undecided 2%
Consumer Insight Feb 26, 2013 -- Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
46.8%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.3%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
4.2%
Strategic Research Feb 26, 2013 -- Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45.7%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43.8%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5.7%
Infotrak Research and Consulting Feb 26, 2013 -- Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
46%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.5%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
4.3%
Ipsos Synovate Feb 15 - Feb 19, 2013 5,971 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.8%		 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
44.4%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5.2%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 1.6%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 0.8%, Mohammed Abduba Dida/Joshua Odongo 0.2% James ole Kiyiapi/Winnie Kaburu 0.1%
Ipsos Synovate Feb 14 - Feb 15, 2013 2,500 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
43%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%
Consumer Insight Feb 14 - Feb 17, 2013 -- Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 3%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1% Undecided 2%
Strategic Research Feb 14 - Feb 17, 2013 2,500 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
44.4%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
43.9%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
6.4%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 2.8%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1.9%
Infotrak Research & Consulting Feb 14 - Feb 17, 2013 2,572 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45.9%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
44.4%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
6%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 1.9%, James ole Kiyiapi/Kinyua 0.3%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 0.2%
Infotrak Research & Consulting Feb 15, 2013 1,650 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
45%		 Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
42%		 Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
5%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 4%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1.3%
Ipsos Synovate Feb 13, 2013 1,074 § Uhuru Kenyatta/William Ruto
40%		 Raila Odinga/Kalonzo Musyoka
37%		 Peter Kenneth/Ronald Osumba 7% Musalia Mudavadi/Jeremiah Ngayu Kioni
4%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 2%, No Response 3%, Undecided 7%, No Answer 6%
Ipsos Synovate Jan 31-Feb 2 2013 2,365 Odinga/Musyoka
45%		 Kenyatta/Ruto
40%		 Mudavadi/Kioni
5%		 Kenneth/Osumba 2%, No Response 3%, Undecided 6%
Infotrak Research & Consulting Jan 30-Feb 2 2013 2,500 Odinga/Kalonzo
45%		 Kenyatta/Ruto
43%		 Mudavadi/Kioni
7%		 Kenneth/Osumba 2%, Martha Karua/Augustine Lotodo 1%, James ole Kiyiapi/Kinyua 0.2%, Undecided 2%
Strategic Research Jan 30-Feb 2 2013 2,100 Odinga/Kalonzo
44%		 Kenyatta/Ruto
42%		 Mudavadi/Kioni
7%		 Kenneth/Osumba 2%, Karua/Lotodo 1%, Undecided 3%
Smart Octopus Jan 20-22 2013 2,400 Kenyatta/Ruto
45%		 Odinga/Kalonzo
32%		 Mudavadi/Kioni
11%		 Kenneth/Osumba 2%, Karua/Lotodo 1%, Kiyiapi/Kinyua 1%, Undecided 5%
Ipsos-Synovate Jan 12-20 2013 5,895 Raila Odinga
46%		 Kenyatta/Ruto
40%		 Musalia Mudavadi
5%		 Peter Kenneth 1%, Martha Karua 1%, Undecided 5%
Infotrak Research & Consulting 28th Dec - 2nd Jan 2013 1,500 Raila Odinga
51%		 Kenyatta/Ruto
39%		 Musalia Mudavadi
3%
Peter Kenneth
3%		 Martha Karua 0.3%, James ole Kiyiapi 0.1%
Infotrak Research & Consulting 29th Oct - 1st Nov 2012 1,500 Raila Odinga
35.4%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
24%		 William Ruto
10.3%		 Musalia Mudavadi 10%, Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8%, Martha Karua 4.3%, Peter Kenneth 2%, Eugene Wamalwa 1.2%, Charity Ngilu 0.5%, Raphael Tuju 0.5%, Others 1%, Undecided 1.9%
Ipsos-Synovate 24–28 September 2012 2,229 Raila Odinga
36%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
30%		 Musalia Mudavadi
7%		 William Ruto 6%, Kalonzo Musyoka 5%, Martha Karua 3%
Infotrak Research & Consulting 17–18 August 2012 2,400 Raila Odinga
35%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
17.3%		 William Ruto
9.9%		 Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8%, Musalia Mudavadi 8.5%, Martha Karua 5%, Peter Kenneth 2%, Eugene Wamalwa 1.7%, Raphael Tuju 1.3%, Undecided 8.8%
Ipsos-Synovate 6–17 April 2012 2,000 Raila Odinga
34%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
22%		 Kalonzo Musyoka
9%		 William Ruto 8%, Martha Karua 5%, Musalia Mudavadi 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 1%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Will Not Vote 1%, Others 1%, DK/NR 2%, Undecided 10%
Infotrak Harris Poll 11–13 March 2012 2,400 Raila Odinga
42%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
22%		 Kalonzo Musyoka
9%		 Martha Karua 5%, William Ruto 5%, Musalia Mudavadi 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 1%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Undecided 5%
Ipsos-Synovate 12–19 December 2011 2,000 Raila Odinga
32%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
22%		 Kalonzo Musyoka
10%		 William Ruto 6%, Martha Karua 4%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Undecided 17%
Ipsos-Synovate 15–23 October 2011 2,000 Raila Odinga
34%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
24%		 William Ruto 10% Kalonzo Musyoka
9%, Martha Karua 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%
Infotrak Harris Poll 20–23 September 2011 1,500 Raila Odinga
41%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
19%		 Martha Karua 11% Kalonzo Musyoka
9%, William Ruto 7%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%
Smart Octopus Limited 15 August 2011 -- Raila Odinga
26%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
23%		 William Ruto 19% Martha Karua 3%, Kalonzo Musyoka
16%, Eugene Wamalwa 6%
Synovate Research Reinvented July 15, 2011 3,070 Raila Odinga
42.6%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
21.4%		 Kalonzo Musyoka
9.5%		 William Ruto 8.3%, Martha Karua 7.8%
Synovate Research Reinvented 15 April 2011 -- Raila Odinga
38%		 Kalonzo Musyoka
18%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
13%		 William Ruto 8%, Martha Karua 6%, Eugene Wamalwa 3%

§ Survey findings limited to survey respondents who watched/listened to Presidential debates.

Second round (Run-Off)

Pollster Date Sample 1st 2nd Undecided
Consumer Insight Feb 26, 2012 -- Raila Odinga
50.6%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
46.3%		 --
Strategic Research Feb 26, 2012 -- Raila Odinga
51.7%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
45.7%		 --
Infotrak Research and Consulting Feb 26, 2012 -- Raila Odinga
49.5%		 Uhuru Kenyatta
47.2%		 --
Ipsos-Synovate 24–28 September 2012 2,229 Uhuru Kenyatta
50%		 Raila Odinga
42%		 8%
Ipsos-Synovate 24–28 September 2012 2,229 Musalia Mudavadi
47%		 Raila Odinga
44%		 8%

Prospective Candidatures

Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti, second hand man to both Daniel Arap Moi and incumbent President Mwai Kibaki, was expected to be a candidate but died in June 2012 in a helicopter crash. His mixed Masai and Kikuyu heritage was seen as important in light of the violence that followed the 2007 presidential election and the tendency in Kenyan politics for ethnic-based alliances.[32]

Several other politicians made public their intentions to run or were speculated to run by media analysts and polling organizations. These politicians included the following:

Some of them withdrew from the race in support of the candidates or did not file their papers with the IEBC so that they would be on the ballot. Joseph Hellon, George Luchiri Wajackoyah, Dishon Kirima and Kingwa Kamencu did not submit papers to the IEBC.

Ruto, Musyimi and Nyagah opted to support Uhuru Kenyatta with Ruto being his running mate. Those who stepped down in favour of Raila Odinga were Jirongo, Wetangula, Bifwoli and Musyoka who became his running mate. Eugene Wamalwa opted to support Mudavadi while Raphael Tuju supported Peter Kenneth who both chose other running mates.

These decisions took place in the context of the formations of alliances. The law requires all Kenyan political parties to register any coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties by 4 December 2012. This has resulted in several publicized discussions among key political players and their respective parties who aim to form pre-election coalitions prior to the deadline. Another likely effect of the agreements may be a reduction in the number of prospective candidates.[47]

Coalitions and Alliances

The five coalitions formed by the 4 December 2012 deadline were:

References

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  2. ^ Presidential Candidates Kenya Diaspora Vote
  3. ^ Article 138 (4) Constitution of Kenya 2010
  4. ^ "IEBC declares Uhuru Kenya's fourth president". Daily Nation. Retrieved 9 March 2013.
  5. ^ "Presidential candidates present papers to IEBC". Daily Nation. 24 January 2013. Retrieved 29 January 2013.
  6. ^ Why PM’s tour to central Kenya is causing jitters Daily Nation, 6 February 2010
  7. ^ a b PROFILE-Kenya's Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta REUTERS, 18 February 2011
  8. ^ Raila, Mudavadi teams deadlock
  9. ^ Narc-K party to seek presidency on its own Daily Nation, 26 September 2010
  10. ^ Poll predicts a Uhuru win over Raila in run-off
  11. ^ Ntimama endorses Kiyiapi for president
  12. ^ "Court has final say on Uhuru and Ruto, says IEBC boss - Politics". nation.co.ke. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
  13. ^ Will Ross (2012-01-23). "BBC News - Kenyatta and Ruto to face ICC trial over Kenya violence". Bbc.co.uk. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
  14. ^ "Petitioners withdraw Uhuru, Ruto integrity case - Politics". nation.co.ke. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
  15. ^ http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000071809&story_title=Kenya-Uhuru,-Ruto-face-fresh-integrity-case
  16. ^ "Integrity cases against five to be heard jointly". The Standard. 23 January 2013. Retrieved 29 January 2013.
  17. ^ "5 judges to hear Raila, Uhuru integrity case". The Star. 26 January 2013. Retrieved 29 January 2013.
  18. ^ http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Uhuru-Ruto-get-green-light-to-run-for-State-House-/-/1631868/1695520/-/146x14c/-/index.html
  19. ^ "Raila says Uhuru can't be trusted with land reform". The Standard. 5 February 2013. Retrieved 9 February 2013.
  20. ^ "I am clean, Uhuru tells Raila over stolen wealth". The Standard. 14 January 2013. Retrieved 9 February 2013.
  21. ^ "NCIC: Keep off historical injustices". The Standard. 4 February 2013. Retrieved 9 February 2013.
  22. ^ "Nyachae warns against gagging debate on land". The Standard. 9 February 2013. Retrieved 9 February 2013.
  23. ^ Report of the Commission of Inquiry into the Illegal/Irregular Allocation of Public Land , Volume 2, Annex 9 (PDF). Kenya Government Press. 2004. p. 234.
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  33. ^ Ruto says he will run for president in 2012 Daily Nation, 19 October 2009
  34. ^ "2012: Mutava Musyimi for Presidency". PolitiKenya. 3 July 2011. Retrieved 2 September 2012.
  35. ^ VP Kalonzo kicks off campaign for 2012 presidency Daily Nation, October 12, 2010
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  40. ^ Updated Sunday, August 28, 2011 at 00:00 GMT+3 (2011-08-28). "Standard Digital News : Tuju joins presidential race to check Raila". Standardmedia.co.ke. Retrieved 2012-11-30.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
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  44. ^ http://www.muumbo.com/
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