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Celtc Phoenix is a term coined by journalist and satirist Paul Howard for his fictional Ross O'Carroll-Kelly character.[1] It refers to the concept of a phoenix rising from the ashes of the Celtic Tiger (a term applied to a period of growth in Ireland in the late 1990s and early 2000s), which ended with the 2008–2013 economic downturn and related banking crisis. It has since been used occasionally by some economic commentators and media outlets to describe the strong economic growth in Ireland since 2014.[2][3]

Background

In late 2013, Ireland exited an EU/ECB/IMF bailout term. In 2014, the Irish economy began to grow, with the construction sector showing signs of recovery.[4] The Irish economy grew by 4.8% in 2014, making Ireland the fastest growing economy in the European Union.[5] Other factors such as quantitative easing, exchange rates and oil prices influenced growth.[6] This growth helped to reduce national debt to 109% of GDP, and the budget deficit fell to 3.1% in the fourth quarter.[7]

The headline unemployment rate remained steady at 10%, though youth unemployment remained at over 20%, higher than the EU average.[8][9] Emigration continued to play a significant factor in unemployment statistics.[10]

The value of Irish exports increased to a 13-year high in spring 2015, boosted in part by the weak euro. Davy Stockbrokers reported that goods exports were up 17.4% in the first three months of 2015 compared to 2014, due in part to a rebound in pharmaceuticals, which were up 21% year on year.[11][12] However, Ireland's trade surplus fell by 1% during the same period.[13]

Property prices increased in 2014, growing fastest in Dublin. This was due to a housing shortage, especially in the Dublin area. The demand in housing caused some recovery in the Irish construction and property sectors.[14] By early 2015, house price increases nationally began to outpace those in Dublin. Cork saw house prices rise by 7.2%, while Galway prices rose by 6.8%. Prices in Limerick were 6.7% higher while in Waterford there was a 4.9% increase.[15]

On the 14 October 2014, Minister for Finance Michael Noonan and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin introduced the budget for 2015, the first in seven years to include tax cuts and spending increases.[16] It reversed some of the austerity measures that had been introduced over the previous six years, with increased spending and tax cuts worth just over €1bn.[17][18][19][20]

In April 2015, during a "Spring Economic Statement", Noonan and Howlin outlined the government's plans and projections up to the year 2020.[21][22] This included policy statements on expansionary budgets, deficit management plans and proposed cuts to the Universal Social Charge and other taxes.

Reaction

In October 2014, German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble said that Germany was "jealous" at how the Irish economy had recovered after the bailout. He also said that Ireland had made a significant contribution to the stabilisation of the euro. [23]

While Taoiseach Enda Kenny praised the economic growth, and said that Ireland would seek to avoid returning to a "boom and bust" cycle, he noted that other areas of the economy remained fragile.[24][25][26]

Some other commentators have suggested that, depending on the Eurozone, world economic outlook as well as other internal and external factors, the growth seen in Ireland in 2014 and early 2015 may not indicate a longer-term pattern for sustainable economic improvement.[27][28][29][30]

The European Commission also acknowledged the recovery and growth, but warned that any extra government revenue should be used to further reduce the national debt.[31]

See also

References

  1. ^ Sweeney, Tanya (19 December 2014). "Soapbox... Is the boom really back? ...and Is the so-called 'Celtic Phoenix' all it's cracked up to be?". Irish Independent. Retrieved 20 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Rise of the Celtic Phoenix?". Shelflife Magazine. 16 September 2014. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  3. ^ "Ireland is a spending nation once again as Celtic Phoenix rises". Irish Independent. 24 August 2014. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  4. ^ "Rise of new orders for 'battered' Irish construction sector indicates recovery". Irish Independent. 10 March 2014. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  5. ^ "GDP growth of 4.8% makes Ireland fastest growing EU economy". RTÉ News. 12 March 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  6. ^ "Irish economic growth outpacing rest of Europe, says Ibec". The Irish Times. 13 April 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  7. ^ "Strong growth sees national debt fall to 109% of GDP". Irish Times. 20 April 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  8. ^ "Unemployment steady at 10% in April - CSO". RTÉ News. 29 April 2015.
  9. ^ "Ireland tops the European poll for reducing unemployment rates". The Irish Times. 30 April 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  10. ^ Bodkin, Peter (10 March 2015). "'If things are so successful, why are people still leaving the country?'". The Journal. Retrieved 24 May 2015.
  11. ^ "Exports at 13-year high as weak euro boosts competitivesness". Irish Independent. 16 May 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  12. ^ "Value of exports up 21% in March on a yearly basis - CSO". RTÉ News. 15 May 2015.
  13. ^ "Trade surplus slips 1% but exports set to grow". Irish Examiner. 16 April 2015. Retrieved 24 April 2015.
  14. ^ "Property prices nationally up 15 per cent in 12 months". The Irish Times. 24 September 2014. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  15. ^ "Dublin property price growth fell below national average in first three months of 2015". RTÉ News. 7 April 2015.
  16. ^ "Budget Key Points". RTÉ News. 14 October 2014. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  17. ^ "Budget 2015: Give and take". Irish Independent. 15 October 2014. Retrieved 15 October 2014.
  18. ^ "Budget 2015: as it happened". RTE News. 14 October 2014. Retrieved 15 October 2014.
  19. ^ "Noonan denies budget framed for election". Irish Examiner. 14 October 2014. Retrieved 15 October 2014.
  20. ^ "Budget 2015". Irish Times. 14 October 2014. Retrieved 15 October 2014.
  21. ^ "Expansionary budgets until 2020 are possible - Spring Economic Statement". RTÉ News. 28 April 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  22. ^ "Spring statement: the main points". The Irish Times. 28 April 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  23. ^ "German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble: 'Germany jealous of Irish growth figures'". Irish Independent. 31 October 2014. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  24. ^ "Enda Kenny says Irish economy strengthening but remains fragile". The Irish Times. 28 January 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  25. ^ "No going back to boom and bust, says Kenny". The Irish Times. 9 March 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  26. ^ "Enda Kenny: 2015 is the year of rural recovery". Irish Examiner. 6 March 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  27. ^ "The Myth of the Irish Recovery". CounterPunch. 1 May 2015.
  28. ^ "Celtic phoenix - Ireland's economy emerges from ashes". Australian Financial Review. 17 March 2015.
  29. ^ "IMF sounds warning note over economic recovery". The Irish Times. 2 May 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  30. ^ "Tánaiste Joan Burton warns Ireland's economic recovery is not secure". The Irish Times. 29 April 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  31. ^ "Budget 2016: European Commission warns any extra revenues be used to cut debt". Irish Independent. 13 May 2015. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
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