Talk:Economic forecasting
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BetacommandBot 11:25, 6 July 2007 (UTC)
Dr. Favero's comment on this article
Dr. Favero has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
The article lacks completely a historical section.
Given the long history of forecasting in the 20th century, this is a major absence. For a short summary about international (mostly US) forecasting in 1910-32 see my paper ssrn.com/abstract=1016001 - and the references to Armatte, Deblock and Friedman
On the US there is the wonderful book by Walter Friedman, Fortune Tellers: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/10057.html
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Dr. Favero has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Giovanni Favero, 2007. "Weather forecast or rain-dance? On inter-war business barometers," Working Papers 2007_14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 00:27, 26 May 2015 (UTC)
Dr. Allen's comment on this article
Dr. Allen has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
I thought this piece required a great deal more on the econometrics of forecasting, particularly time series econometrics. See for example, the discussion of general forecasting issues in D.F. Hendry and G.H. Mizon (2014) Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting, Journal of Econometrics, 82, 1, 186-195.
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Dr. Allen has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Chang, C-L. & Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Perez-Amaral, T., 2013. "Risk Modelling and Management: An Overview," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2013-22, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
ExpertIdeasBot (talk) 06:22, 9 July 2015 (UTC)
Dr. Koop's comment on this article
Dr. Koop has reviewed this Wikipedia page, and provided us with the following comments to improve its quality:
This is a tough topic to do as it is really too broad to offer a decent coverage in a short article. It would probably be better to focus on particular sub-topics (e.g. Macroeconomic Forecasting (with time series data), Microeconomic Data (with cross-sectional/panel data) and Financial Forecasting) rather than jam them all into one Economic Forecasting article. I note that most of this article (e.g. all of the things listed in the List of Regularly Published...) is about macroeconomics. But there are little bits and pieces here and there about micro and financial topics, so it becomes a bit confusing at times.
This article is okay, but I would take issue a bit with some of the discussion in the methods and issues sections. The list of methods is "Methods of forecasting include Econometric models, Economic base analysis, Shift-share analysis, Input-output model and the Grinold and Kroner Model". This includes incredibly general catch-all phrases ("econometric methods" includes thousands of different things), to obscure old fashioned things that I have not seen anyone using ("economic base analysis") to obscure individual articles that are not widely used ("Grinold and Kroner" model).
I also note that some interesting macroeconomic forecasts are presented based on financial markets (e.g. use of oil futures as forecasts of oil price) and betting odds. These are not mentioned.
And, if you are going to get into input/output tables, then you should really talk about computational general equilibrium models (which are similar, but much more widely used for forecasting) or dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (which are one of the main tools for forecasting used by central banks).
As for forecast accuracy, instead of describing a few facts of relevance to one particular macroeconomic historical incident, it might have been better to describe relevant issues. For instance, in the last decade there has been loads of work in academia and policy circles using predictive densities (i.e. not just point forecasts, but entire probability density functions to provide an idea of the uncertainty about forecasts) and formal methods for evaluating how the quality of forecasts.
We hope Wikipedians on this talk page can take advantage of these comments and improve the quality of the article accordingly.
Dr. Koop has published scholarly research which seems to be relevant to this Wikipedia article:
- Reference : Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.