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2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum

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The referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union (EU).
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?[1]

The United Kingdom European Union membership referendum is scheduled to take place before the end of 2017.[2] Membership of the European Union has been a controversial issue in the United Kingdom since the country joined the then European Economic Community in 1973.

A bill providing for the referendum has been passed by the British Parliament. The bill follows a Conservative Party manifesto commitment to hold such a referendum. It will be the second referendum to be held on EU membership in the UK. The last was held in 1975 when membership was approved by 67% of voters.[3] The referendum will also be held in, and affect the status of Gibraltar, a UK overseas territory.[4]

Those in favour of a British withdrawal from the European Union – sometimes shortened as Brexit[5] – argue that outside the EU, the UK would be better able to better control immigration, better positioned to conduct its own trade negotiations, and freed from what they believe to be unnecessary EU regulations and bureaucracy. Those in favour of remaining in the EU argue that leaving the EU would risk the UK's prosperity, diminish its influence over world affairs, and result in trade barriers between the UK and the EU.

History

Rt Hon. David Cameron MP

In January 2013, David Cameron promised that, should the Conservatives win a parliamentary majority at the 2015 general election, the UK Government would negotiate more favourable arrangements for continuing British membership of the EU, before holding a referendum as to whether the UK should remain in or leave the EU.[6] German and French political leaders countered by warning that the UK could not pick and choose its membership terms while simultaneously advocating Britain should continue its membership.[7] However, some public polls in France and Germany favoured a British exit.[7] The United States also warned against a British exit from the European Union, arguing that it would reduce the British "voice" in the EU as well as not being in the national interest of the United States.[8]

In response to David Cameron's January 2013 speech on the EU, several countries submitted their views on the proposal and as to UK-EU relations. The U.S. Obama administration expressed its belief that the United Kingdom is stronger in the European Union, and that the EU is stronger for having Britain as a member.[9] The German Defence Minister, Thomas de Maiziere, threatened that Brexit could diminish British influence in NATO,[10] while French President François Hollande, speaking at the European Parliament, said there could be no à la carte option for European Union membership,[11] later pronouncing: if "British people do not like the EU - leave!"[12] In response to British Foreign Secretary William Hague's review of EU competencies, the Japanese Government stated: "The Government of Japan...expects that the UK will maintain a strong voice and continue to play a major role in the EU".[13] In July 2013, a letter from the Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr said "Australia recognises the UK's strength and resilience and looks forward to seeing it continue as a leading economy and effective power. Strong effective membership of the EU contributes to this."[14] The Swedish Finance Minister, Anders Borg, empathised that EU regulation is a serious matter, and that for Sweden the issue also raises some concerns and [Brexit] could reorient the EU.[15]

When the Conservative Party proceeded to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election, David Cameron reiterated his Party's manifesto commitment to hold an "In-Out" referendum on UK membership of the European Union by the end of 2017, but only after 'negotiating a new settlement for Britain in the EU'.[16] The planned referendum was included in The Queen's Speech on 27 May 2015.[17] It is thought that Cameron is planning to hold this referendum in October 2016,[18] Government-sponsored legislation to authorise the referendum having been put before the House of Commons in May 2015.[19]

Cameron had previously rejected proposals to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, but had suggested the possibility of a referendum at some later date to ensure that the UK's position within an evolving EU had the "full-hearted support of the British people".[20] Under Ed Miliband's leadership between 2010 and 2015, the Labour Party ruled out an In-Out referendum unless there were a further transfer of powers from the UK to the EU.[21] In their manifesto for the 2015 general election the Liberal Democrats pledged to hold an In-Out referendum only in the case of there being a change in the EU treaties.[22] The UK Independence Party (UKIP), the British National Party, the Green Party,[23] and the Respect Party[24] all supported the principle of a referendum.

Private Member's Bill

In May 2013, the Conservative Party published a draft EU Referendum Bill and outlined their plans for renegotiation and then an In-Out vote if returned to office in 2015.[25] The draft Bill stated that the referendum must be held no later than 31 December 2017.[26]

The draft legislation was initially taken forward as a Private Member's Bill by Conservative MP James Wharton.[27] The Bill's First Reading in the House of Commons took place on 19 June 2013.[28] David Cameron, was said by a spokesperson to be "very pleased" and would ensure the Bill was given "the full support of the Conservative Party".[29]

Regarding the ability of the Bill to bind the UK Government in the 2015-20 Parliament to holding such a referendum, a parliamentary research paper noted that:

"The Bill simply provides for a referendum on continued EU membership by the end of December 2017 and does not otherwise specify the timing, other than requiring the Secretary of State to bring forward orders by the end of 2016. These orders would need both Houses to agree to the detailed rules for the poll and the date. If no party obtained a majority at the [next general election due in 2015], there might be some uncertainty about the passage of the orders in the next Parliament. Unless the orders are passed, it would not appear possible to hold the referendum, since the day and the conduct of the poll would not have received parliamentary assent."[30]

The Bill received its Second Reading on 5 July 2013 passing by 304 votes to none after almost all Labour MPs and all Liberal Democrat MPs abstained,[31] finally clearing the Commons in November 2013, before it was introduced to the House of Lords in December 2013, where it failed to progress after the Lords voted to block the Bill.[32]

Conservative MP Bob Neill introduced an Alternative Referendum Bill to the Commons having coming third in the annual ballot for Private Members' Bills on 2 July 2014.[33][34] After a debate on 17 October 2014, it passed to the Public Bills Committee, but due to the Commons failing to pass a monetary resolution the Bill was unable to progress further before the Dissolution of Parliament on 27 March 2015.[35][36]

Television debates

In March and April 2014, in the run-up to European Parliament elections, two head-to-head debates between Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage on the issue of leaving the EU were broadcast in the UK.[37] The first hour-long debate, hosted by Nick Ferrari, was broadcast on radio station LBC on 26 March,[38][39][40][41] and was followed by The European Union: In or Out, televised live on BBC Two on 2 April.[37]

Impromptu polls by YouGov and ICM suggested that Farage was the better performer in the debate,[42] but the BBC's Nick Robinson suggested in his analysis that "history will record that Nigel Farage was the winner of these debates. Nick Clegg will hope that, nevertheless, he may have won something too by being seen to challenge Britain's political insurgent."[43]

EU Referendum Act

Main article: European Union Referendum Act 2015

Before the 2015 general election, the Conservatives pledged in their manifesto to legislate for an EU Referendum to be held by the end of 2017.[16] Following the election of a Conservative majority government on 7 May, Cameron reiterated that pledge, suggesting it might be brought forward to 2016.[44][45] The UK Government included the planned referendum in The Queen's Speech on 27 May[17] and introduced the European Union Referendum Bill 2015–16 in the House of Commons on the next day.

Shortly after his re-election, Cameron visited a number of EU leaders to discuss renegotiation and treaty change with a view to reaching agreement before the referendum.[46]

In contrast to the Labour Party's position prior to the 2015 general election under Ed Miliband, Acting Labour Leader Harriet Harman committed her Party to supporting plans for an EU referendum by 2017.[47] The Liberal Democrats oppose a Referendum before 2017, suggesting one should only take place in the event of further proposed changes to the Treaties of the European Union.[48] In its 2015 election manifesto, the Democratic Unionist Party offered clear support for an EU referendum.[49]

Referendum question

Initially, the proposed question for the European Union Referendum Bill as put before Parliament was :

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?

and in Welsh :

A ddylai’r Deyrnas Unedig aros yn aelod o’r Undeb Ewropeaidd?

permitting a simple YES / NO answer.

Subsequently the Electoral Commission has recommended the proposed question be revised to :

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

Remain a member of the European Union
Leave the European Union

and in Welsh :

A ddylai’r Deyrnas Unedig aros yn aelod o’r Undeb Ewropeaidd neu adael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd?

Aros yn aelod o’r Undeb Ewropeaidd
Gadael yr Undeb Ewropeaidd

Research by the Electoral Commission confirmed that its recommended question "was clear and straightforward for voters, and was the most neutral wording from the range of options ... considered and tested".[50] This change was accepted by the government in September 2015, shortly before the bill's third reading.[51]

Procedure

There is no precedent for a sovereign member state leaving the European Union or any of its predecessor organizations. However, three territories of EU member states have withdrawn: Algeria (1962, independence from France),[52] Greenland (1985)[53] and Saint Barthélemy (2012), the latter two becoming Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union.

The Treaty of Lisbon, which came into force on 1 December 2009, introduced for the first time a procedure for a member state to withdraw voluntarily from the EU.[54] This is specified in Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union,[55] which states that a member state may notify the European Council that it wishes to withdraw, upon which withdrawal negotiations begin. If no other agreement is reached the treaty ceases to apply to the withdrawing state two years after such notification.

Remaining members of the EU consequently would need to undertake negotiations to manage change over the EU's budgets, voting allocations and policies brought about by the withdrawal of any member state.[56]

Results of a withdrawal

Were the UK electorate to vote to leave the EU, its subsequent relationship with the remaining EU members could take several forms. A research paper presented to the UK Parliament proposed a number of alternatives to membership which would continue to allow access with the EU internal market. These include remaining in the European Economic Area (EEA) as a European Free Trade Association (EFTA) member, or seeking to negotiate bilateral terms along Swiss model with a series of interdependent sectoral agreements.[57]

Were the UK to join the European Economic Area as an EFTA member, it would have to sign up to EU internal market legislation without being able to vote on its content. However the EU is required to conduct extensive consultations with non-EU members beforehand via its many committees and cooperative bodies.[58][59] It is also worth noting that some EU Law originates from various international bodies on which non-EU EEA countries have a seat. The EEA Agreement (EU and EFTA members except Switzerland) does not cover Common Agriculture and Fisheries Policies, Customs Union, Common Trade Policy, Common Foreign and Security Policy, direct and indirect Taxation, and Police and Judicial Co-operation in Criminal Matters, leaving EFTA members free to set their own policies in these areas;[60] however, EFTA countries are required to contribute to the EU Budget in exchange for access to the internal market.[61] The Icelandic Government decided to keep this status, withdrawing their application for EU membership in March 2015.[62] Through its bilateral accords with the EU, Switzerland does not have privileged access to the internal market for services with the consequence for example that the Swiss banking sector has to maintain a major alternative presence inside the EU.

Around 1.4 million British nationals have exercised their right to freedom of movement to live, work or study in the European Union according to the British Government.[63] British citizens are currently able to study in EEA countries at the same cost as charged to their own nationals: this arrangement applies equally between EU states, and would likely be terminated were Britain to leave the EU/EEA. The status of the Common Travel Area between a UK outside the EU and EU member Ireland remains to be clarified.

UKIP have proposed that the UK should attempt to create a Commonwealth Free Trade Area to compensate for any trade lost by leaving the European Single Market.[64] The idea of a series of bilateral free trade agreements, or even a full Commonwealth Free Trade Area was discussed at the 2005 Malta Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting. In response, the European Movement argued that the UK trades more with Ireland than with all other leading developing countries combined, the so-called BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (only one of which, India, is in the Commonwealth).[65] The European Movement also suggested that the British economy is most similar to other European economies as opposed to other countries.[65]

A report by Tim Oliver of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs expanded analysis of what a British withdrawal could mean for the EU: the report argues a UK withdrawal "has the potential to fundamentally change the EU and European integration. On the one hand, a withdrawal could tip the EU towards protectionism, exacerbate existing division, or unleash centrifugal forces leading to the EU’s unravelling. Alternatively, the EU could free itself of its most awkward member, making the EU easier to lead and more effective."[56] Both The Financial Times[66] and The Guardian[67] publish regular comment on Euro finance and EU opinion.

Response

Formal political campaigns

As of October 2015, there is a cross-party, formal group campaigning for Britain to remain a member, called Britain Stronger in Europe, while there are two campaigns promoting exit: Leave.EU and Vote Leave.[68]

Party policies

Question Party Ref
in favour of remaining a member of the European Union style="background-color: Template:Alliance Party of Northern Ireland/meta/color" | Alliance Party [69][70]
style="background-color: Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color" | Green Party England and Wales [71]
style="background-color: Template:Green Party in Northern Ireland/meta/color" | Northern Ireland [72]
style="background-color: Template:Scottish Green Party/meta/color" | Scotland [73]
style="background-color: Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color" | Labour Party [74][75]
style="background-color: Template:Liberal Democrats/meta/color" | Liberal Democrats [76]
style="background-color: Template:NI21/meta/color" | NI21 [77]
style="background-color: Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color" | Plaid Cymru [78]
style="background-color: Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color" | Scottish National Party (SNP) [79][80]
style="background-color: Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color" | Sinn Féin [81]
style="background-color: Template:Social Democratic and Labour Party/meta/color" | Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) [82]
in favour of leaving the European Union style="background-color: Template:Democratic Unionist Party/meta/color" | Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) [83]
style="background-color: Template:Traditional Unionist Voice/meta/color" | Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) [84]
style="background-color: Template:UK Independence Party/meta/color" | UK Independence Party (UKIP) [85]
formally neutral style="background-color: Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color" | Conservative Party [86][87][88]
not declared style="background-color: Template:Ulster Unionist Party/meta/color" | Ulster Unionist Party

No party has decreed that its members should all follow the party line,[citation needed] resulting in notable exceptions: Conservative Party MPs in particular, and Labour MPs to a lesser extent, are taking different sides.

Politicians campaigning independently to remain in the EU

Politicians campaigning independently to leave the EU

Media promoting UK remaining in the EU

Media promoting UK departure from the EU

British national press advocating Brexit to date include:

Business opinion

Various UK multinationals have stated that they are pro-EU so as to preserve the status quo, such as Shell,[106] BT[107] and Vodafone,[108] with some assessing the pros-and-cons of Britain exiting.[109] The banking sector is one of the most vocal advocating to stay in the EU, with the British Bankers Association saying: 'Businesses don't like that kind of uncertainty'.[110] RBS has warned of potential damage to the economy.[111] Furthermore, HSBC, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank envisage that a Brexit might result in them changing domicile.[112][113] All such factors could impact on the City of London's present status as European and global market leader in financial services.[114][115]

In the transportation industry, most companies so far have declared as being pro-EU, such as car manufacturers Ford and BMW who have warned Prime Minister David Cameron against Brexit, suggesting it would be "devastating" for the economy.[116] Yet despite this executives have stated that 'British plants were not at risk were the country to leave'.[117] The CEO of Vauxhall has stated that a Brexit would not materially affect its business,[118] as has JCB.[119][failed verification]

A February–March 2013 survey of 4,387 companies by the business lobby group, British Chambers of Commerce, found that 18 per cent of UK companies were in favour of complete withdrawal from the European Union,[120] and that 33 per cent of businesses were in favour of withdrawal while negotiating free trade deals, although 60 per cent suspected a withdrawal could "harm their business",[120] with 23 per cent saying that further integration could be "beneficial" to their company;[120] commenting on the survey, the group's director-general, John Longworth, said "These findings suggest that U.K. businesses increasingly feel that some sort of change to Britain’s relationship with the EU is needed to boost our trading prospects."

In September 2013, a YouGov/Business for Britain survey of 1024 UK business leaders found that by 46% – 37%, British businesses declared that the costs of Single Market membership out weigh the benefits of being in the EU, by 66% – 26%, businesses support a referendum over the EU, and by 56% – 23%, business leaders believe a meaningful change would necessitate treaty change, and would like to see Britain's relationship with the EU focus on trade.[121]

Ratings agency response

On 11 June 2015, ratings agency Standard and Poors altered its outlook for the UK economy from 'neutral' to 'negative', saying that the referendum "represents a risk to growth prospects" for the country's economy.[122] (As of June 2015, S&P is now the sole rating agency giving the UK AAA-rating.[122])

International Responses

 United States - the US representative, Michael Froman, declared that the United States is not keen on pursuing a separate free trade deal with Britain if it leaves the European Union, undermining a key economic argument of proponents of those who say Britain would prosper on its own and be able to secure bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with trading partners[123] The US ambassador for the UK, Matthew Barzun, said that it is in US interest if Britain remains a part in the EU, adding: "we would love a strong UK in a strong EU".[124]

Exit plan competition

Following David Cameron's announcement of an EU referendum, British think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) announced in July 2013 a competition to find the best plan for a UK exit from the European Union, declaring that a departure is a 'real possibility' after the next election.[125] Those interested were asked to submit a 2,000-word proposal by 16 September 2013, with seventeen of the best entrants being asked to produce a more detailed version.[126] Eight judges: Professor Philip Booth, Roger Bootle, Dr Stephen Davies, Tim Frost, Ruth Lea, Professor Martin Ricketts, David Starkey, Gisela Stuart and chaired by former Chancellor Nigel Lawson, decided the winner.[126] The winning entry was awarded 100,000 euros (£86,525), and was announced on 8 April 2014.[126][127]

Iain Mansfield, a Cambridge graduate and UKTI diplomat, submitted the winning thesis: A Blueprint for Britain: Openness not Isolation.[126] Mansfield's submission focused on addressing both trade and regulatory issues with EU members as well as other UK global trading partners.[127][128]

Cross-party Exploratory Committee for EU Referendum

Seven Eurosceptic MPs from three nationwide parties formed a group acting as precursor to the Out Campaign for the EU referendum;[129] these include UKIP's Douglas Carswell MP, Conservative MPs Bernard Jenkin and Owen Paterson, as well as Labour MPs Kate Hoey and Graham Stringer.[130]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum
Opinion polling on the referendum

Since 2010, polls have indicated that the British public are divided on the question, with opposition to EU membership peaking in November 2012 at 56% compared with 30% who prefer to remain in,[131] while in June 2015 those in favour of Britain remaining in the EU reached 43% versus those opposed 36%.[132] The largest ever poll (of 20,000 people, in March 2014) showed the public evenly split on the issue, with 41% in favour of withdrawal, 41% in favour of membership, and 18% undecided.[133] However, when asked how they would vote if Britain renegotiated the terms of its membership of the EU, and the UK Government stated that British interests had been satisfactorily protected, more than 50% indicated that they would vote for Britain to stay in.[134] Analysis of polling suggests that young and/or better educated voters tend to support remaining in the EU, whereas those older and/or less educated tend to support leaving, but there is no gender split in attitudes.[135][136]

See also

Members of the European Union

Further reading

References

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