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2016 National Assembly for Wales election

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National Assembly for Wales election, 2016
← 2011 5 May 2016 2021 →
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party
 
Leader Carwyn Jones Andrew R. T. Davies
Party Labour Conservative
Leader's seat Bridgend South Wales Central
Last election 30 seats, 42.3% 14 seats, 25.0%
Seat change -
  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Leanne Wood Kirsty Williams
Party Plaid Cymru Liberal Democrats
Leader's seat South Wales Central (List)
also running in Rhondda (Constituency) 		Brecon and Radnorshire
Last election 11 seats, 19.3% 5 seats, 10.6%
First Minister before election

Carwyn Jones
Labour

Elected First Minister

TBD
TBD

This article is part of a series within the
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The National Assembly for Wales election 2016 will be the next election for the National Assembly for Wales. The poll will be held on Thursday 5 May 2016 and will elect all the members of the assembly (AMs). It will be the fifth election for the National Assembly (previous elections were held in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011), and the third election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (though several rules have now been changed by the Wales Act 2014).

The previous election resulted in gains for the then incumbent Welsh Labour Party, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and currently holds 30 seats, exactly half of the Assembly, one short of an overall majority. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives are currently the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two from 2007, but former party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.[1])

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged 18 or over on election day will be entitled to vote. The election will be held on the same day as elections for the Scottish Parliament and the Northern Ireland Assembly and a number of local elections in England. This election and elections to the other devolved chambers have been delayed by a year from 2015 to 2016. This is a result of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which ensured that the United Kingdom general election took place on 7 May 2015.[2] General elections to the Welsh Assembly have now been permanently moved to a five-year cycle under the Wales Act 2014.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

The previous restriction on the ability to stand in both a constituency and a regional list was lifted by the Wales Act 2014. The Act also removes the ability to dual mandate with the House of Commons — an Assembly Member will no longer allowed also to be an MP.

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)


Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Others Lead
30 Nov - 4 Dec 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,005 35% 23% 20% 5% 15% 2% 12%
21-24 Sept 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 39% 23% 18% 6% 13% 1% 16%
24-26 June 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 35% 23% 20% 4% 15% 4% 12%
4-6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 35% 22% 21% 6% 12% 3% 13%
5–9 March 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 37% 22% 20% 6% 11% 5% 15%
19–21 January 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 34% 21% 18% 7% 13% 7% 13%
2–5 December 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 35% 22% 19% 6% 12% 6% 13%
8 – 11 September 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 36% 21% 19% 6% 12% 6% 15%
26 June – 1 July 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 39% 20% 19% 8% 13% 5% 19%
11–22 April 2014 YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University 1,027 41% 21% 20% 8% 7% 2% 20%
10–12 February 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 42% 21% 19% 9% 5% 3% 21%
2–4 December 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 43% 19% 20% 9% 7% 3% 23%
18–22 July 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 47% 19% 17% 8% 6% 3% 28%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 46% 21% 17% 10% 5% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency) 949,252 42.3% 25.0% 19.3% 10.6% N/A 2.8% 17.3%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Cons Plaid Lib Dem UKIP Green Others Lead
30 Nov - 4 Dec 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,005 34% 23% 18% 4% 16% 4% 2% 11%
21-24 Sept 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 34% 24% 18% 5% 14% 4% 2% 10%
24-26 June 2015 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,151 32% 22% 20% 5% 14% 4% 3% 10%
4-6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 32% 22% 20% 6% 13% 3% 1% 10%
5–9 March 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 33% 22% 21% 5% 12% 5% 2% 11%
19–21 January 2015 Cite error: The <ref> tag has too many names (see the help page). YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 32% 20% 15% 8% 16% 8% 2% 12%
2–5 December 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 31% 20% 19% 6% 15% 7% 2% 11%
8–11 September 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 31% 21% 16% 5% 17% 7% 3% 10%
26 June – 1 July 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 34% 21% 18% 5% 16% 4% 3% 13%
12 – 14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 35% 19% 17% 7% 14% 6% 2% 16%
11–22 April 2014 YouGov/IPPR, Cardiff University, Edinburgh University 1,027 37% 21% 19% 7% 10% 4% 2% 16%
10–12 February 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 39% 19% 17% 9% 10% 6% 20%
2–4 December 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 40% 19% 15% 9% 10% 7% 21%
18–22 July 2013 YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog 1,012 25% 12% 23% 9% 16% 14% 2%
28 Feb 2013 Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 26% 14% 26% 8% 13% 6% 7% Tie
5 May 2011 National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional) 949,388 36.9% 22.5% 17.9% 8.0% 4.6% 3.4% 6.7% 14.4%

Constituency nominations

NB: candidates in BOLD text were the incumbent assembly members. Non incumbents are represented in italics. Members elected 2016 are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Wales Green Party UKIP Others Result
Aberavon Christopher Tossell David Rees Helen Ceri Clarke Bethan Jenkins Jonathan Tier
Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Mike Priestley Trystan Lewis
Alyn and Deeside Carl Sargeant Martin Bennewith
Arfon Sion Jones Sian Gwenllian
Blaenau Gwent Tracey West Alun Davies
Brecon and Radnorshire Gary Price Alex Thomas Kirsty Williams Grenville Ham
Bridgend George Jabbour Carwyn Jones Charlotte Barlow
Caerphilly Hefin David Lindsay Whittle Andrew Creak Sam Gould
Cardiff Central Joel Williams Jenny Rathbone Eluned Parrott Glyn Wise Amelia Womack Mohammed-Sarul Islam
Cardiff North Jayne Cowan Julie Morgan Elin Walker Jones Chris von Ruhland
Cardiff South and Penarth Ben Grey Vaughan Gething Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies Anthony Slaughter
Cardiff West Mark Drakeford Neil McEvoy [3] Hannah Pudner
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Steve Jeacock Adam Price
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Angela Burns Marc Tierney Simon Thomas Val Bradley
Ceredigion Elizabeth Evans Elin Jones Brian Williams Gethin James
Clwyd South Simon Baynes Ken Skates Mabon ap Gwynfor Duncan Rees
Clwyd West Darren Millar Jo Thomas Llyr Huws Gruffydd
Cynon Valley Vikki Howells Liz Wilks
Delyn Hannah Blythyn Nigel Williams
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Lord Elis-Thomas
Gower Lyndon Jones Rebecca Evans Abigail Cherry
Islwyn Rhianon Passmore Matthew Kidner Katy Beddoe
Llanelli Lee Waters Helen Mary Jones [4] Kenneth Denver-Rees
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Huw Lewis Bob Griffin David Rowlands
Monmouth Nick Ramsay Catherine Fookes [5] Veronica German [6] Chris Were Debby Blakebrough Independent [7]
Montgomeryshire Russell George Jane Dodds Richard Chaloner
Neath Jeremy Miles Alun Llewelyn Lisa Rapado Llyr Powell
Newport East John Griffiths Paul Halliday Peter Varley James Peterson
Newport West Matthew Evans Jayne Bryant Pippa Bartolotti Mike Ford
Ogmore Jamie Wallis Huw Irranca-Davies Tim Thomas Laurence Brophy
Pontypridd Joel James Mick Antoniw Mike Powell
Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies Dan Lodge Bob Kilminster Frances Bryant
Rhondda Leighton Andrews Leanne Wood [8]
Swansea East Michael Hedges Tony Young
Swansea West Craig Lawton Julie James Dr Dai Lloyd
Torfaen Cllr Graham Smith Lynne Neagle Matthew Woolfall-Jones Steven Jenkins Susan Boucher
Vale of Clwyd Sam Rowlands Ann Jones Mair Rowlands
Vale of Glamorgan Ross England Jane Hutt Denis Campbell Ian Johnson Alison Haden Kevin Mahoney
Wrexham Andrew Atkinson Lesley Griffiths
Ynys Môn Rhun ap Iorwerth Simon Wall

Regional lists

Mid and West Wales

British National Party Communist Party of Britain Welsh Conservative Party Wales Green Party Independent Welsh Labour Welsh Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Socialist Labour Party UK Independence Party Welsh Christian Party
1. Aled Davies Alice Hooker-Stroud Joyce Watson Simon Thomas
2. Ian Harrison Grenville Ham Eluned Morgan Helen Mary Jones
3. Harry Legge-Bourke Pippa Pemberton John Bayliss Vicky Moller
4. Denise Howard Frances Bryant Antonia Antonazzi
5.
6.
7.
8.
  • RESULT:

North Wales

British National Party Communist Party of Britain Welsh Conservative Party Wales Green Party Independent Welsh Labour Welsh Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru [9] Socialist Labour Party UK Independence Party Welsh Christian Party
1. Mark Isherwood Mary Wimbury Llyr Huws Gruffydd
2. Janet Haworth Jason McLellan Carrie Harper
3. Barbara Hughes Bernadette Horton Paul Rowlinson
4. Antony Bertola
5.
6.
7.
8.
  • RESULT:

South Wales Central

British National Party Communist Party of Britain Welsh Conservative Party Wales Green Party Independent Welsh Labour Welsh Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Socialist Labour Party UK Independence Party Welsh Christian Party
1. Andrew R.T. Davies Amelia Womack Belinda Robertson Leanne Wood [3]
2. David Melding Anthony Slaughter Neil McEvoy [3]
3. Richard John Hannah Pudner Dr Dafydd Trystan Davies [3]
4. Keith Dewhurst Chris von Ruhland
5.
6.
7.
8.
  • RESULT:

South Wales East

British National Party Communist Party of Britain Welsh Conservative Party Wales Green Party Independent Welsh Labour Welsh Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Socialist Labour Party UK Independence Party Welsh Christian Party
1. Mohammad Asghar Pippa Bartolotti Veronica German [10] Steffan Lewis [11]
2. Laura Jones Ann Were Paul Halliday Rhayna Mann
3. Chris Butler Christopher Were Bob Griffin Nigel Copner
4. Geoffrey Burrows Katy Beddoe
5. William Graham Andrew Creak
6.
7.
8.
  • RESULT:

South Wales West

British National Party Communist Party of Britain Welsh Conservative Party Wales Green Party Independent Welsh Labour Welsh Liberal Democrats Plaid Cymru Socialist Labour Party UK Independence Party Welsh Christian Party
1. Suzy Davies Lisa Rapado Bethan Jenkins [12]
2. Altaf Hussain Kevin Searley Dai Lloyd [12]
3. Dan Boucher Alun Llewelyn [12]
4. Edward Yi He Charlotte Barlow
5. Carolyn Webster Russell Kennedy
6. Rebecca Singh Thomas Muller
7. Laurence Brophy
8. Mike Whittall
  • RESULT:

Retiring members

The following incumbent AMs did not offer themselves for re-election:

See also

References

  1. ^ "Assembly national votes and seats by party, and links to constituency results". BBC Online. 16 March 2011. Retrieved 26 October 2013.
  2. ^ Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 section 5
  3. ^ a b c d Martin Shipton (5 July 2015). "Leanne Wood tops Plaid's list of candidates for Assembly elections by just 10 votes". walesonline. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  4. ^ a b Martin Shipton (18 June 2015). "Llanelli AM Keith Davies to stand down". walesonline. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  5. ^ "Monmouth Constituency Labour Party elections". monmouthlabour.org. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  6. ^ "Veronica German". Liberal Democrats. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  7. ^ "Protected Blog". wordpress.com. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  8. ^ "Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood defends dual candidacy plans". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  9. ^ "Party of Wales announces candidates for North Wales list". partyof.wales. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  10. ^ "Veronica German chosen to lead South Wales East list for Welsh Lib Dems". Welsh Liberal Democrats. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  11. ^ "Plaid Cymru announces candidates for South Wales East list". partyof.wales. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  12. ^ a b c "Plaid Cymru announces candidates for South Wales West list". partyof.wales. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  13. ^ a b "First minister's tribute to AMs Edwina Hart and Gwenda Thomas". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  14. ^ "Assembly presiding officer to stand down as AM in 2016". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  15. ^ "Caerphilly AM Jeff Cuthbert to stand down at 2016 Assembly Election". Caerphilly Observer. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  16. ^ Rhodri Barker (22 September 2014). "Delyn AM Sandy Mewies to step down in 2016". northwales. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  17. ^ "Cynon Valley AM Christine Chapman to stand down in 2016". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  18. ^ "Islwyn AM to stand down". Caerphilly Observer. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  19. ^ Graham Henry (16 July 2014). "Plaid Cymru's Jocelyn Davies to stand down as AM in 2016". walesonline. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  20. ^ "Rhodri Glyn Thomas Plaid Cymru AM to stand down in 2016". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
  21. ^ "Plaid AM Alun Ffred Jones to retire". BBC News. Retrieved 5 November 2015.
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