2016 United States presidential election
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||
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The electoral map for the 2016 election, based on populations from the 2010 census | |||
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2016 U.S. presidential election | |
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The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the Electoral College. The term limit established in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent, President Barack Obama, from running for a third term.
The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses are scheduled to take place between February and June 2016. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee.
Background
Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.
The incumbent, President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; his term expires on January 20, 2017. In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[1][2] If incumbent President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden serve out the full remainder of their respective terms, the voters will elect the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States, respectively.
2010 midterm elections
In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives (thus taking control of the chamber), and six seats in the Senate despite retaining an overall majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House, John Boehner became the 61st Speaker of the House of Representatives. This made Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term, in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.[3]
2012 presidential election
In the 2012 presidential election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.[4] Meanwhile, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses, while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[2]
During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent.[5][6][7][8]
Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.[9] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.[10][11]
2014 midterm elections
In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest seen in 70 years, with only 34.4% of eligible voters voting.[12] As a result of the election, the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest level since 1928.[13] Republicans also gained a majority in the Senate for the first time since the Democrats took control of the chamber after the 2006 elections, thus giving the Republican Party a majority in both chambers of Congress, and their largest majority in Congress since the 71st Congress in 1928.[13] In the corresponding gubernatorial races, Republicans made a net gain of 2 seats, increasing their total to 31 Governorships.[14] Republicans gained control of 68 of the 98 total state legislative chambers in the entire country, also their largest majority since 1928.[15]
Democratic Party
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the 44th First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat to announce a major candidacy for the presidency, which she did via a video on April 12, 2015.[16] Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 have indicated that Clinton is the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, but faces challenges from Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.[17] Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30 that he was running for the Democratic nomination.[18] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders.[17][19][20] Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015.[21] Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015.[22][23] Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb announced his candidacy on July 2, 2015.[24] Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig announced his candidacy on September 6, 2015.[25] On October 20, Jim Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and is exploring a potential Independent run.[26] Former U.S. Senator from Delaware and incumbent Vice President Joe Biden opted not to run on October 21, ending months of speculation, stating "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."[27][28] Lincoln Chafee withdrew on October 23, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity."[29] Lawrence Lessig withdrew on November 2, after failing to qualify for the second officially-sanctioned DNC debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in said debate.[30]
Declared candidates
Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes), or successfully filed for a place on a primary ballot. Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
Candidates featured in major polls
Candidates below have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls, participated in authorized forums and debates, and are on the ballot in at least four states. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Hillary Clinton | Martin O'Malley | Bernie Sanders | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Secretary of State from New York (2009–2013) |
Governor of Maryland (2007–2015) |
(2007–present) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other candidates
The following notable individuals are on the primary ballot in at least one state.
- Rocky De La Fuente, businessman from California.[38]
- Keith Russell Judd, former prison inmate, presidential candidate (1996–2012), from Texas.[51][52]
- Sam Sloan, international Chess player, Libertarian Party presidential candidate in 2012, from New York.[52][55]
- Ballot Access to 24 of 4,051 (or 0.59%) Pledged Delegates: New Hampshire[40]
- Vermin Supreme, performance artist and perennial candidate from Massachusetts.[56][57]
- Ballot Access to 24 of 4,051 (or 0.59%) Pledged Delegates: New Hampshire[40]
- Willie Wilson, businessman and 2015 Chicago mayoral candidate from Illinois.[58][59][60]
- John Wolfe, Jr., lawyer and politician from Tennessee.[63]
The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.
- Jeff Boss, 9/11 Truther and perennial candidate from New Jersey.[66][67]
- Harry Braun, researcher, 2004 and 2012 presidential candidate, from Georgia.[68]
- David Mills, author and activist from West Virginia.[69]
- Robby Wells, Reform Party and Constitution Party presidential candidate in 2012 from North Carolina.[70][71][72]
Withdrawn candidates
- Jim Webb, former U.S. Senator (2007–2013). Suspended campaign on October 20, 2015.[73]
- Lincoln Chafee, former Governor of Rhode Island (2011–2015). Suspended campaign on October 23, 2015.[74]
- Lawrence Lessig, Harvard Law Professor. Suspended campaign on November 2, 2015.[30]
Republican Party
United States Senator Ted Cruz from Texas became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015.[75][76] Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015.[77] Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13.[78][79] Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015.[80][81] Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate, announced his candidacy the next day.[82] 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator from Pennsylvania ,Rick Santorum, announced his campaign on May 27.[83] George Pataki, a former New York Governor, was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015.[84] Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina, announced he was running on June 1.[85] Former Governor of Texas, Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4.[86] Former Governor of Florida, Jeb Bush, joined the race on June 15.[87] Real estate developer and reality TV host, Donald Trump, announced he was running on June 16.[88] Bobby Jindal, outgoing Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24.[89] Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey announced he was running on June 30.[90] Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker announced his candidacy on July 13.[91] Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his run on July 21.[92] Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was the most recent Republican candidate to announce his candidacy, which he did on July 30, 2015.[93] On September 11, 2015, Rick Perry withdrew from the race. Scott Walker withdrew on September 21. Bobby Jindal withdrew his candidacy on November 17. Lindsey Graham withdrew from the race on December 21. George Pataki withdrew from the race on December 29.
Declared candidates
Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the Republican Party's presidential nomination; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.
Candidates featured in major polls
Other candidates
The following notable individuals are on the primary ballot in at least one state.
- Andy Martin, birther theorist and perennial candidate from New York.[121][122]
- Ballot Access to 23 of 2,472 (or 0.93%) Pledged Delegates: New Hampshire[40]
The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.
- Jack Fellure, retired engineer from West Virginia; 2012 Prohibition Party presidential nominee.[123]
Withdrawn candidates
- Rick Perry, 47th Governor of Texas (2000–2015). Suspended campaign on September 11, 2015.[124]
- Scott Walker, 45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–present). Suspended campaign on September 21, 2015.[125]
- Bobby Jindal, 55th Governor of Louisiana (2008–2016). Suspended campaign on November 17, 2015.[126]
- Lindsey Graham, senior U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2003–present). Suspended campaign on December 21, 2015, and endorsed Jeb Bush.[127][128][129]
- George Pataki, 53rd Governor of New York (1995–2006). Suspended campaign on December 29, 2015.[130][131]
Major third parties
Parties in this section have obtained ballot access in enough states to theoretically obtain the minimum number of electoral votes needed to win the election. Unless otherwise specified, individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a third party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate and obtained enough ballot access to win the election; filed as a third party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by party and then alphabetically by surname.
Green Party
Ballot Access to 296 Electoral Votes: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin[132][133]
- Darryl Cherney, musician and environmental activist from California[134][135]
- Jill Stein (campaign), physician and 2012 Green Party presidential nominee from Massachusetts[136][137]
Libertarian Party
Ballot Access to 325 electoral votes: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming[138]
- Marc Allan Feldman, physician from Ohio.[139][140]
- Gary Johnson (campaign), Governor of New Mexico 1995–2003; presidential nominee in 2012[141]
- John McAfee, computer programmer and businessman from Tennessee[142]
- Austin Petersen, activist from Missouri[143][144]
Withdrawn candidate
- Robert David Steele, activist and author from Virginia; candidate for the Reform Party's nomination in 2012. Suspended campaign on January 6, 2016[145][146][147]
Other third parties and independents
Parties and candidates in this section have yet to obtain the necessary amount of ballot access to win the election. Unless otherwise specified, individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by minor party and then alphabetically by surname.
American Freedom Party
Ballot Access to 6 electoral votes: Mississippi[148]
- Bob Whitaker, white nationalist and paleoconservative political activist from South Carolina.[149] Vice-presidential nominee: Tom Bowie, from Maryland[150]
America's Party
Ballot Access to 84 electoral votes: California, Florida[151][152]
- Tom Hoefling, activist from Iowa[153]
Independent American Party
Ballot Access to 18 Electoral Votes: New Mexico, Oregon, Utah[154]
- Farley Anderson, activist from Utah.[154] Vice Presidential nominee: Vacant
Nutrition Party
Ballot Access to 9 electoral votes: Colorado[155]
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Ballot Access to 29 electoral votes: Florida[158]
- Gloria La Riva, newspaper printer and activist from New Mexico; 2008 presidential nominee; vice-presidential nominee: Eugene Puryear[159]
Peace and Freedom Party
Ballot Access to 84 electoral votes: California, Florida[160][161]
- Gloria La Riva, newspaper printer and activist, from California[162][163]
Potential candidates
- Monica Moorehead, perennial candidate and activist from New Jersey[164]
- Jill Stein (campaign), physician and 2012 Green Party presidential nominee from Massachusetts[165]
Prohibition Party
Ballot Access to 21 electoral votes: Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi[155][166][167]
- James Hedges, Tax Assessor for Thompson Township, Fulton County, Pennsylvania 2002–2007;[168][169] vice-presidential nominee: Bill Bayes of Mississippi[168]
Socialist Party USA
Ballot Access to 0 electoral votes[167]
- Mimi Soltysik, former National Co-chair of the Socialist Party USA from California;[170] vice-presidential nominee: Angela Walker of Wisconsin[170]
Veterans Party of America
Ballot Access to 6 electoral votes: Mississippi[171]
- Chris Keniston, reliability engineer from Texas;[172] vice-presidential nominee: Deacon Taylor of Nevada[173]
Workers World Party
Ballot Access to 0 electoral votes
- Monica Moorehead, perennial candidate and activist from New Jersey;[174] vice-presidential nominee: Lamont Lilly[174]
Independent
- Dan Bilzerian, Internet personality[175]
- Guy Anthony De Marco, author from Missouri[176]
- Zoltan Istvan, futurist, writer, transhumanist philosopher from California[177][178][179]
- Terry Jones, pastor for Dove World Outreach Center from Florida; independent presidential candidate in 2012[180][181]
- Merlin Miller, filmmaker from Tennessee[182]
- Guy Schwartz, musician from Texas[183]
- Ron White, comedian and actor[184]
Publicly expressed interest
- Jim Webb, former U.S. Senator[185] (2007–2013) (campaign) Having sought the Democratic Party presidential nomination, Webb has expressed interest in the possibility of instead running as an independent candidate during the 2016 election cycle.
Potential candidate
- Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City 2002–2013; CEO and founder of Bloomberg L.P. since 1981[186][187]
Potential battleground states
In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how electors are elected).[188] Maine and Nebraska use the "congressional district method," in which the winner of the state receives two electoral votes and candidates receive additional electoral votes for each congressional district that they win. Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states.[189][190] Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.[191][192] Other potential Democratic targets include Nebraska's second congressional district, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas.[191][192] Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Maine's second congressional district, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, and New Jersey.[192][193] Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region. In 2016, there are currently twenty-four state ballot initiatives on marijuana legalization in 16 states including in the swing states of Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, and New Mexico. Historically, marijuana-legalization ballot initiatives are widely acknowledged to "turn out the vote" for single issue, first-time, and younger voters.[194]
Party conventions
- Constitution Party
- April 13–16, 2016: Constitution Party National Convention to be held in Salt Lake City, Utah.[195]
- Libertarian Party
- Republican Party
- Democratic Party
- July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention to be held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.[200]
- Green Party
- August 4–7, 2016: Green National Convention to be held in Houston, Texas.[201]
Debates
Primary election debates
Main articles:
General presidential election debates
The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015.[202][203][204]
No. | Date | Time | Host | City | Moderator | Participants | |||||||||||||||
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P1 |
Dayton, Ohio | ||||||||||||||||||||
VP |
Farmville, Virginia | ||||||||||||||||||||
P2 |
St. Louis, Missouri | ||||||||||||||||||||
P3 |
Las Vegas, Nevada | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York will serve as the backup debate location.[204] | |||||||||||||||||||||
= Sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates |
Free & Equal Elections Foundation plans to host a debate between the nominees of the minor parties that are not included in the major debates, but who have enough ballot access to mathematically obtain the minimum electoral votes needed to win the election.[205] It will be located at the Belasco Theater in Los Angeles, California. As of December 2015[update], the following parties qualify for this debate:
Debate lawsuit
On June 22, 2015, the advocacy group Level the Playing Field, along with Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, and the Libertarian National Committee, filed a complaint for declaratory and injunctive relief against the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the CPD after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process.[206][207] The FEC did take up the original complaint in a July 16 meeting, with a motion to open rulemaking failing 2–4 (Commissioners Ann Ravel (D) and Ellen Weintraub (D) voting aye and Commissioners Lee Goodman (R), Caroline Hunter (R), Matthew Petersen (R), and Steven Walther (D) voting no).[208][209]
Because the original complaint became moot after that meeting, the plaintiffs filed another complaint on August 27,[210] amending it on October 22.[211] The FEC responded to that complaint on November 9, denying the vast majority of the claims made without proving their lack of validity.[212] A motion for the courts to grant leave to amend the complaint further was filed on December 30,[213] and the second amended complaint was submitted on January 5, 2016.[214]
Opinion polling
- General election polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
- Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2016
- Democratic primary polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Democratic Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
- Republican primary polling
- Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries
- Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2016
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
- United States gubernatorial elections, 2016
- United States presidential election, 2016 timeline
- Fundraising for the 2016 United States presidential election
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