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2008 United States presidential election

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Template:Future election

Presidential electoral votes by state

The United States Presidential election of 2008 will be held on November 4, 2008. The election will determine the 44th President of the United States. The winner will be whichever candidate receives a majority of votes in the United States Electoral College. A majority would be at least 270 Electoral College votes.[1] As in the 2004 Presidential election the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be based on the 2000 Census. The winner will be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.

Incumbents

In 2008, President George W. Bush will be prohibited from seeking a third term by Amendment XXII to the U.S. Constitution. In the three most recent eight-year administrations, the incumbent Vice President has subsequently run for President:

However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for President, a statement he reiterated in 2004: while appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... 'If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve,' or not only 'No,' but 'Hell, no'. I've got my plans laid out. I'm going to serve this President for the next four years and then I'm out of here." Cheney is known not to be in particularly good health: a former heavy smoker, he has had four heart attacks and repeated surgery on his heart and circulatory system, and he has persistent atherosclerotic disease.

There is some speculation that Cheney may retire as Vice President after the 2006 midterm elections. [1]. If this were to happen, his successor likely would become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2008.

The 2008 race will be a non-incumbent or "open seat" election in which a sitting President is not a candidate. Assuming Cheney serves his full term and does not run, the 2008 race will be the first time since 1928 that neither the sitting President nor the sitting Vice President has run for President. (Note that while the 1952 general election between Dwight D. Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson also did not include a sitting President or Vice President, sitting Vice President Alben Barkley had unsuccessfully campaigned for the Democratic presidential nomination, and President Harry Truman stood for the Democratic nomination in the New Hampshire primary.)

Should Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice (who has also denied any desire to seek the presidency, though she is the current frontrunner in some public opinion polls) receive the Republican Party's nomination in 2008, she would revive an old practice that was the norm for the first fifty years of United States history. In early tradition, the Secretary of State post was traditionally the stepping stone to the Presidency. Many Commanders in Chief of the late 18th and early 19th centuries held Dr. Rice's current post before being elected, including Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren, and James Buchanan. The Secretary of State post remains the primary Cabinet-level office to succeed the Chief Executive in the presidential line of succession.

Frontrunners

Many other names are already beginning to appear as potential candidates. While this information will most likely undergo changes as new public opinion data becomes available, the present anticipated frontrunners for the major political parties in America are as follows:

Recent polls

Diageo/Hotline Poll - July 20-23, 2006

Polls %
John McCain (R) 49%
Hillary Clinton (D) 37%

Diageo/Hotline Poll - June 21-25, 2006

Polls %
John McCain (R) 49%
John Edwards (D) 36%

Democrats

The latest of the major public opinion polls for the 2008 election yielded the following results for potential Democratic candidates:

American Polling Research Institute - June 13-16, 2006

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 36%
John Edwards 15%
John Kerry 13%
Russ Feingold 6%
Bill Richardson 5%
Joseph Biden 4%
Evan Bayh 3%
Mark Warner 3%
Unsure 11%
Wouldn't vote 4%

Another poll with a larger slate of candidates:

Gallup Poll. June 1-4, 2006

Democrat %
Hillary Clinton 36%
Al Gore 16%
John Edwards 12%
John Kerry 11%
Wes Clark 4%
Joseph Biden 4%
Russ Feingold 3%
Mark Warner 2%
Tom Daschle -
Tom Vilsack -
Someone else 3%
Unsure 5%
None 2%

Republicans

The latest of the major public opinion polls for the 2008 election yielded the following results for potential Republican candidates:

American Polling Research Institute - June 13-16, 2006

Republican %
Condoleezza Rice 30%
Rudolph Giuliani 21%
John McCain 20%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Mitt Romney 7%
George Allen 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Bill Frist 2%
Unsure 3%
Wouldn't Vote 1%

For the latest polling reports visit http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm

Timeline

Early fundraising and primaries

Candidates of the Constitution, Democratic, Green, Libertarian, Reform, Republican, Socialist and other parties began making their plans known as early as 2004; candidates will emerge during 2006 and 2007 because of the long lead time for fund-raising. Federal election laws require the reporting of funds raised for the primary elections, and in the past the media has anointed "front-runners" on the basis of reported fund-raising totals. For example, the media treated Howard Dean as the front-runner going into the 2004 cycle, although he was initially considered by some to be a long-shot.

Delegates to the national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, or state caucuses and state conventions. Beginning in January 2008, the first delegate-selection contests will be held in Iowa (caucus), New Hampshire (primary) and possibly other states. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, including 2004, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries, because the leading candidates had collected enough committed delegates to win in the national convention. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

The South Carolina Republican Party will host a Republican Party debate May 15, 2007 at the University of South Carolina in Columbia. [2]

Later events

Potential candidates

While it is rare for candidates to officially declare their candidacy prior to late in the year preceding the presidential election (in this case, 2007), some potential candidates may have expressed their interest in running, and are listed below. At this early stage, many of the strongest candidates might have yet to emerge, and these lists include a few of the political figures who excite speculation among political activists, insiders, and media commentators.

Conditions for listing a candidate

As stated above, we are in the early phase of the election. Supporters for the different parties are merely throwing out names.

  1. Private Official Campaign Web Site, Required Data
    1. Private web page (non-free web page)
    2. Statement of FEC Status
    3. Valid current contact information (name, address, telephone, non-free email)
    4. Date and place of birth
    5. Intent of ballot placement or write-in status.
    6. Current list of Registration for write-in status

FEC - FEC Registered Candidate.
FEC-Other - FEC Registered Candidate, other election.
Non-FEC - Non-FEC Registered Candidate

Democratic Party

Main article: Potential Democratic candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Announced candidates for the Democratic Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees or have expressed serious interest

Republican Party

Main article: Potential Republican candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Announced Candidates for the Republican Party:

Candidates who have formed exploratory committees or have expressed serious interest:

Third parties

Main article: Potential third party candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election

Constitution Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Constitution Party: None yet.

Green Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Green Party:

Libertarian Party

Announced candidates for the Libertarian Party:

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy:

Prohibition Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Prohibition Party:

Reform Party

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Reform Party: None yet.

Socialist Party USA

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy for the Socialist Party USA: None yet.

Independents

Actively pursuing or interested in candidacy

Opinion polling, prediction markets

Further information: [[:Opinion polling for the 2008 U.S. presidential election]]

Tradesports, an online betting company with active political futures markets, lists candidates bettors predict are the most likely to be nominated in 2008.[4]

USA Button Poll has been successfully picking candidates since the 1980s by linking votes with buttons purchased. Shows current polling data and gives opportunity to purchase buttons from many different potential candidates. [5]

Candidate predictions and projections

Dick Morris, political commentator, best-selling author, and former Clinton adviser, published a book in 2005 entitled Condi vs. Hillary (subtitled The Next Great Presidential Race) (ISBN 0060839139), in which he predicts that U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice will be the Republican nominee in 2008, while New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Morris also predicts that while Dr. Rice herself will not actively pursue the office, a grassroots draft movement (in the style of the Draft-Eisenhower movement in 1952) will see to it that Dr. Rice's name appears on the primary ballots and that Dr. Rice, without any campaigning on her own part, will receive the GOP nomination. There is already a large Draft Condi movement, the most prominent group being a 527 political organization called Americans for Dr. Rice, which has accumulated thousands of members, already begun fundraising, and has aired radio and television ads in several key campaign states. There is also a group called VoteHillary.org seeking to persuade Senator Clinton to run in 2008.

Bob Woodward, in 2005, stated that Cheney is a "serious darkhorse" candidate for the GOP nomination in 2008[6] and later predicted that the nominees in 2008 would be Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Dick Cheney for the Republicans.[2] Cheney, in response, affirmed that even if he were offered the Republican nomination in 2008, he would not accept it.

In a mock prediction on an episode of The Colbert Report, comedian Stephen Colbert has projected that Senator Bill Frist would be elected, a projection made to allegedly "get a jump on the other networks". In a conversation on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, Chris Matthews predicted Rudy Giuliani would be the next president.

Grassroots "draft" movements have tried to foster public support for particular candidates, such as movements for journalist Bill Moyers [7], Columbia University economist Jeffrey D. Sachs [8], Virginia Governor Mark Warner [9], and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice of California [10].

Possible electoral college change

In 2006, the DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act was introduced in the U.S. House. If enacted, it would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by 1. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia. But the bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah (at-large until the next census), and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, but only until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment.

The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate. Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote.

References

  1. ^ If no candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College then the election is determined by a vote of the House of Representatives.
  2. ^ Catherine Lutz (August 10, 2005). "Woodward offers insight on Bush, Nixon, politics". The Aspen Times.
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