2016 United States presidential election

United States presidential election, 2016
All 538 members of the Electoral College; 270 electoral votes needed to win
	The electoral map for the 2016 election, based on populations from the 2010 census
Incumbent President; Barack Obama; Democratic	; ;

The United States presidential election of 2016, constitutionally prescribed to occur on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president through the Electoral College. The term limit established in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent president, Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, from being elected to a third term. Assuming President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden serve out the remainder of their respective terms, the 2016 election will determine the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States.

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses took place between February 1 and June 14, 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. This nominating process is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their party's presidential nominee. The 2016 Republican National Convention will take place from July 18-21, 2016 in Cleveland, Ohio, while the 2016 Democratic National Convention will take place from July 25-28, 2016 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump became the presumptive presidential nominee of the Republican Party on May 3, 2016, after his win in the Indiana primary^[1] and the subsequent suspensions^[a] of Ted Cruz and John Kasich's campaigns. Former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton became the presumptive presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the general election on June 6, 2016.^[3]^[4] Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders' campaign has stated he will assist in efforts to defeat Trump. Although he has not withdrawn from the race,^[5] Sanders has stated that he will endorse Clinton^[6] and vote for her in the general election.^[7]

Various third party and independent presidential candidates will also contest the election, of which two have currently obtained enough ballot access to mathematically have a chance of winning the presidency and have been featured in major national polls: the Libertarian Party nominee, former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson; and the Green Party presumptive nominee Jill Stein.^[8]^[9]

Background

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section I of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expires at 12:00 noon on January 20, 2017.

2008 presidential election

In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,^[10]^[11] succeeding two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Since the end of 2009, Obama's first year in office, polling companies such as Gallup have found Obama's approval ratings to be between 40-50%.^[12]^[13] Analysts such as Larry Sabato have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, either helping or hurting Clinton.^[14]^[15]

2010 midterm elections

In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives – taking back control of the chamber in the process – and six seats in the Senate, though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House after losing it to the Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections, John Boehner became the 53rd Speaker of the House of Representatives, making Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.^[16]

2012 presidential election

In the 2012 presidential election, Obama defeated former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51.1% of the popular vote and 61.7% of the electoral vote, extending his already historic presidency in the process.^[17] Meanwhile, despite minor losses, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.^[11]

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election.^[18] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Clinton and former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker as potential candidates.^[19]^[20]

2014 midterm elections

In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest since 1942 with only 36.4% of eligible voters voting.^[21] As a result, not only had the Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest level since March 4, 1929,^[22] but also gained a majority in the Senate.

Democratic Party

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat to announce a major candidacy for the presidency. Clinton made the announcement on April 12, 2015 via a video message.^[23] While Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton is the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faces challenges from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders,^[24] who became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30, 2015 that he was running for the Democratic nomination.^[25] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders.^[24]^[26]^[27] On May 30, 2015, former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race.^[28] Four days later, on June 3, 2015, Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, became the fourth Democrat to announce his candidacy.^[29]^[30] On July 2, 2015, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb became the fifth Democrat to announce his candidacy.^[31] On September 6, 2015, former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig became the sixth and final Democrat to announce his candidacy.^[32]

On October 20, 2015, Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and explored a potential Independent run.^[33] The next day, Biden, the incumbent Vice President and former U.S. Senator from Delaware, opted not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."^[34]^[35] Two days later, on October 23, 2015, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity."^[36] On November 2, 2015, after failing to qualify for the second officially-sanctioned DNC debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in said debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders heading into the Iowa Caucus.^[37]

On February 1, 2016, in an extremely close contest, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of 0.2% over Sanders. Winning no delegates in the contest, O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, 2016, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 53% of the vote and scored a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary with 73% of the vote.^[38]^[39]

On March 1, 2016, 11 states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, with Clinton winning Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia for a total of 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont to garner a total of 340 delegates by the end of the night. On the weekend of March 5, 2016, Sanders racked up victories in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine with 15- to 30-point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, 2016, despite never having a lead in the Michigan primary, Sanders scored a stunning upset, winning by a small margin of 1.5% and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while, as expected, Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi.^[40] On March 15, 2016, the second of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Clinton won Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, 2016, Sanders won six caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. By this stage, Clinton had won 1,305 pledged delegates to Sanders' 1,099.^[41]

On April 19, 2016, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, 2016, in the third of four "Super Tuesday" primaries dubbed the "Acela primary," she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania while Sanders won Rhode Island. On May 3, 2016, Sanders pulled off another surprise win in the Indiana primary with a 5-point margin of victory^[42] and he proceeded to claim West Virginia on May 10, 2016 with a 15-point lead, while Clinton won the Guam caucus on May 7, 2016.

As of May 10, 2016^[update], of the 78% of pledged delegates allocated in primaries and caucuses so far, Clinton has won 54% to Sanders' 46%.^[43] Out of the 714 unpledged delegates or "superdelegates" who will vote in the convention in July, Clinton has received endorsements from 505 (71%), while Sanders has received 41 (6%).^[43]

On June 6, 2016, the Associated Press and NBC News stated that Clinton had become the presumptive nominee after reaching the required number of delegates, including both pledged and unpledged delegates (superdelegates), to secure the nomination, becoming the first woman to ever clinch the nomination of any major political party in the United States in the process.^[44] On June 7, 2016, Clinton officially secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning in the California and New Jersey primaries. She won the final primary in Washington, D.C. on June 14, 2016. Sanders has not officially dropped out of the race, but announced on June 16, 2016 that his main goal in the coming months would be to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the general election.^[45] On July 12, 2016 Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire in which he appeared with Clinton.^[46]

Presumptive nominee

Hillary Clinton
Democratic Party (United States)

67th United States Secretary of State (2009–2013)
Campaign
^[47]^[48]^[49]

Withdrawn candidates

Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present). Suspended^[a] campaign on July 12, 2016^[50] and endorsed Hillary Clinton.^[51]
Martin O'Malley, 61st Governor of Maryland (2007–2015). Suspended campaign on February 1, 2016^[52] and endorsed Hillary Clinton.^[53]
Lawrence Lessig, Harvard Law Professor (2009-2016). Suspended campaign on November 2, 2015.^[37]
Lincoln Chafee, 74th Governor of Rhode Island (2011–2015) and former U.S. Senator (1999–2007). Suspended campaign on October 23, 2015.^[54]
Jim Webb, former U.S. Senator (2007–2013). Suspended campaign on October 20, 2015.^[55]

U.S. Senator
Bernie Sanders
of Vermont
(campaign)
Former Governor
Martin O'Malley
of Maryland
(campaign)
Harvard Law Professor
Lawrence Lessig
from Massachusetts
(campaign)
Former Governor
Lincoln Chafee
of Rhode Island
(campaign)
Former U.S. Senator
Jim Webb
from Virginia
(campaign)

Vice presidential possibilities

The following people have been cited as possible running mates for Hillary Clinton:^[56]^[57]^[58]^[59]^[60]

Tim Kaine, United States Senator from Virginia
Cory Booker, United States Senator from New Jersey
Julian Castro, United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Joe Biden, Vice President of the United States
Amy Klobuchar, United States Senator from Minnesota
Mark Warner, United States Senator from Virginia
Elizabeth Warren, United States Senator from Massachusetts
John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado

Republican Party

A total of 17 major candidates entered the race starting March 23, 2015, when Senator Ted Cruz of Texas was the first to formally announce his candidacy: former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson of Maryland, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, businesswoman Carly Fiorina of California, former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, former Governor George Pataki of New York, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump of New York and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. This was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.^[61]

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, 2016, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home of Texas and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later.^[62] On March 15, 2016, the second of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state,^[63] but retained a large share of his delegates for the national convention, which he plans to release to Trump.^[63]

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. However, Trump scored landslide victories in New York and five Northeastern states in April and he grabbed all 57 delegates in the Indiana primary of May 3, 2016. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz^[64] and Kasich^[65] suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3, 2016.^[66]