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2016 Icelandic parliamentary election

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Icelandic parliamentary election, 2016
← 2013 29 October 2016
All 63 seats in the Althing
32 seats needed for a majority
Turnout79.19% Decrease2.3
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Bjarni Benediktsson Katrín Jakobsdóttir Birgitta Jónsdóttir[n 1]
Party Independence Left-Green Pirates
Leader since 29 March 2009 24 February 2013 24 November 2012
Last election 19 seats, 26.70% 7 seats, 10.87% 3 seats, 5.10%
Seats won
21 / 63
10 / 63
10 / 63
Seat change Increase2 Increase3 Increase7
Popular vote 54,990 30,166 27,449
Percentage 29.0 15.9 14.5
Swing Increase2.3 Increase5.0 Increase9.4
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Leader Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson Benedikt Jóhannesson Óttarr Proppé
Party Progressive Viðreisn Bright Future
Leader since 2 October 2016 24 May 2016 31 January 2015
Last election 19 seats, 24.43% Did not contest 6 seats, 8.25%
Seats won
8 / 63
7 / 63
4 / 63
Seat change Decrease11 Increase7 Decrease2
Popular vote 21,791 19,870 13,578
Percentage 11.5 10.5 7.2
Swing Decrease 12.9 Increase10.5 Decrease1.5
  Seventh party
 
Leader Oddný G. Harðardóttir
Party Social Democratic
Leader since 3 June 2016
Last election 9 seats, 12.85%
Seats won
3 / 63
Seat change Decrease6
Popular vote 10,893
Percentage 5.7
Swing Decrease7.1
Prime Minister before election

Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson
Progressive

Prime Minister-designate

TBD

Politics of Iceland
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Parliamentary elections were held in Iceland on 29 October 2016. They were due to be held on or before 27 April 2017, but following the 2016 Icelandic anti-government protests, the ruling coalition announced that early elections would be held "in autumn".[2][3]

The Independence Party emerged as the largest in the Althing, winning 21 of the 63 seats; the Progressive Party, which had won the most seats in 2013, lost more than half its seats as it was overtaken by the Left-Green Movement and the Pirate Party. Of the 63 elected MPs, 30 were female, giving Iceland the highest proportion of female MPs in Europe.[4]

Background

In early April 2016, following revelations in the Panama Papers, leaks from law firm Mossack Fonseca about the financial dealings of then Prime Minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson (Progressive Party) and his wife, there were calls for an early election from the opposition,[5] who planned to present him with a motion of no confidence. Mass protests calling on the Prime Minister to quit followed. Although Sigmundur Davíð had stated he had no intention of resigning, he apparently resigned on 5 April. However, it was later stated by the Prime Minister's office that he had only taken a temporary leave of absence from his duties.[6][7][5][8][9] The Progressive Party's deputy leader, Sigurður Ingi Jóhannsson, became acting Prime Minister the same day.[9]

The President, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, then said he would speak to both coalition parties, Progressive Party and Independence Party, before considering whether to call new elections.[10] Opposition parties continued to press for new elections.[8] On 6 April, Sigurður announced, "We expect to have elections this autumn."[11] On 11 August, Bjarni Benediktsson met with opposition parties and later announced that elections would be held on 29 October 2016.[3]

Electoral system

The 63 members of the Althing were elected using closed list proportional representation in multi-member constituencies of 8 to 13 seats.[12] Of the 63 seats, 54 were elected using constituency results and determined using the d'Hondt method. The remaining nine supplementary seats were awarded to parties that crossed the 5% national electoral threshold in order to give them a total number of seats equivalent to their national share of the vote.[12]

Participating parties

Main article: List of political parties in Iceland

The final deadline for parties to apply for participation in the parliamentary election was 14 October 2016.

Parties with a list for all constituencies
Parties with a list for only some constituencies

Campaign

Sigurður Ingi replaced Sigmundur Davíð as the party chairman of the Progressive Party on 2 October 2016.[13]

The Pirate Party announced on 16 October 2016 that they would not participate in post-election negotiations to form a coalition government with either the Progressive Party or the Independence Party.[14] The party did send letters to Viðreisn, Bright Future, Social Democratic Alliance and Left-Green Movement about the possibility of forming an alliance prior to the election.[14]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary of the opinion polls in Iceland since the previous parliamentary election. Each dot corresponds to one poll's number for party. A smoothing spline is used to show the trends. The scatter of points around the spline curves gives an indication of the uncertainty of the polls. The thin circles at the very right show the results of the election, which for P and D deviate significantly from the polls.
Institute Release date style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Left-Green Movement/meta/color"|V style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Social Democratic Alliance/meta/color"|S style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Pirate Party (Iceland)/meta/color"|P style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Bright Future (Iceland)/meta/color"|A style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Progressive Party (Iceland)/meta/color"|B style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Independence Party (Iceland)/meta/color"|D style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Viðreisn/meta/color"|C Others
2016 result 29 Oct 2016 15.91% 5.74% 14.48% 7.25% 11.49% 29.00% 10.48% 5.74%
Gallup 28 Oct 2016 16.5% 7.4% 17.9% 6.8% 9.3% 27.0% 8.8%
MMR 28 Oct 2016 16.2% 6.1% 20.5% 6.7% 11.4% 24.7% 8.9% 5.5%
Háskóli Íslands 27 Oct 2016 16.8% 5.7% 21.2% 6.7% 10.1% 22.5% 11.4% 5.5%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 27 Oct 2016 16.4% 5.7% 18.4% 6.3% 9.9% 27.3% 10.5% 5.5%
MMR 26 Oct 2016 16.0% 7.6% 19.1% 8.8% 10.0% 21.9% 9.3% 7.3%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 26 Oct 2016 16.4% 6.0% 20.3% 5.1% 11.2% 25.1% 10.8% 5.1%
Háskóli Íslands 21 Oct 2016 18.6% 6.5% 22.6% 6.0% 9.1% 21.1% 8.8% 7.3%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 18 Oct 2016 19.2% 6.5% 20.7% 7.4% 8.5% 23.7% 6.6% 7.4%
MMR 14 Oct 2016 14.5% 9.0% 19.6% 8.2% 9.2% 21.4% 10.2% 7.9%
Háskóli Íslands 14 Oct 2016 17.7% 6.9% 17.5% 7.7% 8.6% 21.5% 11.4% 8.7%
Gallup 14 Oct 2016 14.5% 7.1% 18.3% 7.7% 9.8% 22.6% 12.4% 7.6%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 12 Oct 2016 15.1% 7.3% 22.8% 8.2% 8.5% 22.7% 8.4% 7.0%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 5 Oct 2016 12.6% 8.8% 19.2% 6.9% 11.4% 25.9% 6.9% 8.3%
Gallup 30 Sep 2016 15.6% 8.5% 20.6% 4.7% 8.2% 23.7% 13.4% 5.4%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 28 Sep 2016 12.9% 5.9% 19.9% 3.6% 12.6% 34.6% 7.3% 3.2%
MMR 26 Sep 2016 11.5% 9.3% 21.6% 4.9% 12.2% 20.6% 12.3% 6.7%
MMR 22 Sep 2016 13.2% 8.1% 22.7% 4.1% 11.0% 22.7% 11.5% 6.7%
Gallup 16 Sep 2016 13.5% 8.8% 23.1% 2.9% 9.4% 25.5% 12.2% 4.6%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 8 Sep 2016 12.7% 7.5% 29.5% 2.0% 10.7% 28.2% 6.7% 2.7%
Gallup 6 Sep 2016 16.2% 8.3% 25.8% 2.9% 9.0% 26.3% 10.6% 0.9%
MMR 30 Aug 2016 12.4% 9.1% 22.4% 4.5% 10.6% 24.6% 8.8% 7.6%
Gallup 29 Jul 2016 16.8% 8.0% 25.3% 4.2% 9.9% 26.2% 9.0% 0.6%
MMR 25 Jul 2016 12.9% 8.4% 26.8% 3.9% 8.3% 24.0% 9.4% 6.3%
MMR 7 Jul 2016 18.0% 10.9% 24.3% 2.9% 6.4% 25.3% 6.7% 5.4%
Gallup 29 Jun 2016 15.2% 8.2% 27.9% 3.4% 10.0% 25.1% 9.4% 0.8%
Háskóli Íslands 24 Jun 2016 17.0% 9.0% 28.0% 4.5% 9.5% 19.7% 9.7% 2.6%
Háskóli Íslands 14 Jun 2016 15.9% 7.6% 29.9% 2.9% 11.1% 22.7% 9.1% 0.8%
Háskóli Íslands 4 Jun 2016 16.5% 7.2% 28.3% 3.8% 11.8% 23.9% 7.9% 0.6%
Gallup 1 Jun 2016 16.8% 7.7% 27.4% 4.0% 10.2% 28.5% 4.3% 1.1%
Fréttablaðið / Stöð 2 / Vísir 27 May 2016 18.1% 6.1% 28.7% 2.5% 7.3% 31.5% 5.8%
Háskóli Íslands 17 May 2016 18.9% 8.9% 25.8% 4.8% 8.2% 28.2% 3.5% 1.7%
MMR 13 May 2016 15.8% 7.5% 31.0% 4.9% 10.4% 26.3% 2.5%
Fréttablaðið 12 May 2016 19.8% 7.4% 30.3% 3.1% 6.5% 31.1% 1.8%
Fréttablaðið 6 May 2016 14.0% 8.4% 31.8% 4.0% 8.3% 29.9% 3.6%
MMR 3 May 2016 14.0% 9.7% 28.9% 3.4% 11.2% 27.8% 5.0%
Gallup 30 Apr 2016 18.4% 8.3% 26.6% 5.2% 10.5% 27.0% 3.5% 0.5%
Gallup 13 Apr 2016 19.8% 9.0% 29.3% 5.0% 6.9% 26.7% 2.7% 0.6%
Háskóli Íslands 8 Apr 2016 14.7% 9.5% 30.9% 4.8% 12.9% 23.3% 3.9%
Maskína 8 Apr 2016 20.0% 7.2% 34.2% 5.2% 9.4% 21.3% 2.7%
Gallup 7 Apr 2016 16.7% 7.6% 32.4% 5.6% 10.8% 21.9% 3.3% 1.7%
MMR 6 Apr 2016 12.8% 9.9% 36.7% 5.8% 8.7% 22.5% 3.6%
Fréttablaðið 5 Apr 2016 11.2% 10.2% 43.0% 3.8% 7.9% 21.6% 2.3%
Háskóli Íslands 5 Apr 2016 14.9% 8.1% 39.4% 4.4% 10.0% 18.8% 4.4%
Gallup 31 Mar 2016 11.0% 9.5% 36.1% 3.2% 12.0% 23.2% 2.1% 2.9%
MMR 18 Mar 2016 9.3% 9.2% 38.3% 4.2% 12.4% 22.9% 3.4%
Fréttablaðið 9 Mar 2016 8.4% 8.2% 38.1% 1.8% 12.8% 27.6% 3.1%
MMR 2 Mar 2016 7.8% 7.8% 37.0% 4.2% 12.8% 23.4% 7%
Gallup 2 Mar 2016 10.8% 9.7% 35.9% 3.3% 11.0% 23.7% 5.6%
Gallup 2 Feb 2016 10.8% 9.2% 35.3% 3.6% 12.0% 24.4% 4.7%
MMR 2 Feb 2016 11.0% 9.4% 35.6% 4.4% 12.2% 21.1% 5.9%
Fréttablaðið 30 Jan 2016 9.6% 9.9% 41.8% 1.6% 10.2% 23.2% 3.7%
Gallup 2 Jan 2016 10.2% 10.4% 33.1% 4.2% 12.0% 25.2% 4.9%
MMR 18 Dec 2015 11.4% 12.9% 34.9% 5.3% 11.5% 20.6% 3.4%
Gallup 4 Dec 2015 11.4% 10.1% 32.9% 3.9% 12.0% 24.8% 4.9%
MMR 16 Nov 2015 9.9% 10.5% 35.3% 4.6% 10.8% 23.7% 5.2%
Gallup 4 Nov 2015 11.1% 10.6% 35.5% 4.6% 9.6% 24.6% 4.4%
MMR 21 Oct 2015 11.8% 11.3% 34.2% 6.5% 10.4% 21.7% 4.1%
Gallup 2 Oct 2015 10.6% 10.1% 34.6% 5.6% 10.1% 24.4% 4.6%
MMR 3 Sep 2015 9.6% 10.6% 33.0% 5.8% 11.4% 25.3% 4.3%
Gallup 1 Sep 2015 11.8% 9.3% 35.9% 4.4% 11.1% 21.7% 5.8%
Gallup 7 Aug 2015 8.9% 12.2% 32.3% 5.0% 12.4% 24.0% 5.2%
MMR 4 Aug 2015 10.2% 9.6% 35.0% 4.4% 12.2% 23.1% 5.5%
MMR 30 Jun 2015 12.0% 9.3% 33.2% 5.6% 10.6% 23.8% 5.5%
Rúv 29 Jun 2015 10.3% 11.4% 32.0% 6.4% 11.3% 24.5% 4.1%
MMR 25 Jun 2015 10.5% 11.6% 32.4% 6.8% 10.0% 23.3% 5.4%
FBL 19 Jun 2015 7.3% 11.1% 37.5% 3.3% 8.5% 29.5% 2.8%
MMR 16 Jun 2015 11.1% 11.8% 34.5% 6.7% 11.3% 21.2% 3.5%
Gallup 1 Jun 2015 9.8% 12.4% 34.1% 7.4% 8.9% 23.0% 4.3%
MMR 26 May 2015 10.4% 13.1% 32.7% 6.3% 8.6% 23.1% 5.6%
MMR 4 May 2015 10.8% 10.7% 32.0% 8.3% 10.8% 21.9% 5.5%
Gallup 30 Apr 2015 10.6% 14.1% 30.1% 7.8% 10.1% 22.9% 4.4%
Gallup 30 Mar 2015 10.1% 15.8% 21.7% 10.9% 10.8% 25.0% 5.7%
Kjarninn 26 Mar 2015 10.2% 16.1% 23.6% 10.1% 11.0% 24.8% 4.2%
MMR 21 Mar 2015 9.0% 16.3% 29.1% 9.0% 11.6% 23.4% 1.7%
MMR 18 Mar 2015 10.8% 15.5% 23.9% 10.3% 11.0% 23.4% 5.1%
Fréttablaðið 11 Mar 2015 10.4% 16.1% 21.9% 9.2% 10.1% 28.0% 4.3%
Rúv 2 Mar 2015 11.2% 17.1% 15.2% 13.3% 11.0% 26.1% 6.1%
MMR 19 Feb 2015 12.9% 14.5% 12.8% 15.0% 13.1% 25.5% 6.2%
Gallup 3 Feb 2015 11.0% 18.0% 12.0% 13.0% 13.0% 27.0% 6.0%
MMR 14 Jan 2015 11.9% 15.9% 12.8% 16.9% 9.4% 27.3% 5.8%
Mbl 16 Dec 2014 11.6% 16.1% 11.4% 16.2% 11.0% 29.0% 4.7%
Fréttablaðið 17 Nov 2014 13.1% 19.2% 9.2% 12.5% 12.8% 32.9%
MMR 4 Nov 2014 10.7% 16.1% 11.3% 18.6% 12.3% 23.6% 7.4%
Gallup 3 Oct 2014 13.0% 19.0% 7.0% 16.0% 12.0% 27.0%
MMR 8 Sep 2014 10.4% 16.9% 9.2% 17.8% 11.3% 28.2% 6.2%
MMR 28 Aug 2014 9.6% 20.3% 10.3% 17.6% 9.6% 26.6% 6.0%
MMR 31 Jul 2014 11.6% 17.0% 9.6% 19.2% 11.8% 24.1% 6.7%
MMR 24 Jun 2014 11.4% 16.5% 8.3% 21.8% 11.4% 25.0% 5.6%
MMR 13 May 2014 11.6% 16.4% 9.6% 19.4% 12.3% 22.1% 8.6%
MMR 2 May 2014 11.7% 17.4% 9.0% 15.5% 14.1% 25.1% 7.2%
MMR 14 Apr 2014 11.5% 15.1% 11.0% 17.1% 14.4% 23.9% 7.0%
MMR 3 Mar 2014 10.4% 14.0% 9.3% 16.4% 14.6% 29.0% 5.6%
RÚV 27 Feb 2014 13.0% 16.8% 9.8% 15.8% 15.3% 23.7% 5.6%
Capacent 1 Feb 2014 12.7% 14.9% 8.1% 14.2% 18.3% 26.9%
MMR 22 Jan 2014 11.0% 17.1% 6.9% 15.9% 17.0% 26.3% 5.6%
Capacent 24 Dec 2013 13.3% 15.1% 10.7% 13.1% 16.4% 25.3%
MMR 30 Nov 2013 12.6% 13.8% 9.0% 15.2% 15.0% 26.8%
2013 result 28 Apr 2013 10.87% 12.85% 5.10% 8.25% 24.43% 26.70%
Institute Release date style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Left-Green Movement/meta/color"|V style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Social Democratic Alliance/meta/color"|S style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Pirate Party (Iceland)/meta/color"|P style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Bright Future (Iceland)/meta/color"|A style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Progressive Party (Iceland)/meta/color"|B style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Independence Party (Iceland)/meta/color"|D style="width:30px;background-color:Template:Viðreisn/meta/color"|C Others

Results

Party Votes % Seats +/–
bgcolor="Template:Independence Party (Iceland)/meta/color" style="color:white" | D Independence Party 54,990 29.00 21 +2
bgcolor="Template:Left-Green Movement/meta/color" style="color:white"| V Left-Green Movement 30,166 15.91 10 +3
bgcolor="Template:Pirate Party (Iceland)/meta/color" style="color:white"| P Pirate Party 27,449 14.48 10 +7
bgcolor="Template:Progressive Party (Iceland)/meta/color" style="color:white"| B Progressive Party 21,791 11.49 8 –11
bgcolor="Template:Viðreisn/meta/color" style="color:white"| C Viðreisn 19,870 10.48 7 New
bgcolor="Template:Bright Future (Iceland)/meta/color" style="color:white"| A Bright Future 13,578 7.16 4 –2
bgcolor="Template:Social Democratic Alliance/meta/color" style="color:white"| S Social Democratic Alliance 10,893 5.74 3 –6
F People's Party 6,707 3.54 0 New
bgcolor="Template:Dawn (Iceland)/meta/color" style="color:white"| T Dawn 3,275 1.73 0 0
R People's Front of Iceland 575 0.30 0 0
bgcolor="Template:Icelandic National Front/meta/color" style="color:white"| E Icelandic National Front 303 0.16 0 New
H Humanist Party 33 0.02 0 0
Invalid/blank votes 5,574 – – –
Total 195,204 100 63 0
Registered voters/turnout 246,515 79.19 – –
Source: Iceland Monitor
Popular vote
D
 
 29.00%
V
 
 15.91%
P
 
 14.48%
B
 
 11.49%
C
 
 10.48%
A
 
 7.16%
S
 
 5.74%
F
 
 3.54%
T
 
 1.73%
Others
 
 0.48%
Parliamentary seats
D
 
 33.33%
V
 
 15.87%
P
 
 15.87%
B
 
 12.70%
C
 
 11.11%
A
 
 6.35%
S
 
 4.76%

This was the lowest turnout in Iceland's history.[15]

Government formation

Neither of the two main blocs — the outgoing coalition of Independence and Progressive parties, or the Pirates and allies (Left-Green Movement, Bright Future and Social Democrats) — secured an overall majority, leaving the new Viðreisn party as possible 'kingmakers'.[16]

The Independence Party leader, expressed preference for a three-party coalition, although without saying which three parties. The Pirate Party, while significantly up on the last election, did less well than polls had previously suggested they might. They proposed a five-party coalition with the Left-Green Movement, the Social Democrats, Bright Future and Viðreisn, having previously ruled out working with either of the two outgoing coalition members.[4] The Pirate Party then suggested a minority coalition of Left-Green Movement, Bright Future and Viðreisn, with support but not ministerial representation from themselves and the Social Democrats, in order to simplify the process of government.[17]

The leader of Viðreisn ruled out a right-leaning three-party coalition with Independence and the Progressives.[18] Viðreisn have not ruled out supporting the Pirates bloc.[19]

On 2 November, President Guðni Th. Jóhannesson gave mandate to Bjarni Benediktsson from the Independence Party to form a government.[20]

Footnotes

  1. ^ The Pirate Party does not have formal leadership, but Birgitta is chair of the Parliamentary party.[1]

References

  1. ^ Iceland’s ‘Pirate Party’ Is Now The Biggest Political Party MintPress News, 19 May 2016
  2. ^ Kosningar í haust - Lilja verður ráðherra RÚV, 6 April 2016
  3. ^ a b "Boða til kosninga 29. október". MBL (in Icelandic). 11 August 2016. Retrieved 11 August 2016.
  4. ^ a b Iceland elections leave ruling centre-right party in driving seat The Guardian, 30 October 2016
  5. ^ a b Iceland’s PM faces calls for snap election after offshore revelations The Guardian, 3 April 2016
  6. ^ "PM Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson Wavers On Resignation". The Reykjavik Grapevine.
  7. ^ "Iceland PM calls to dissolve parliament after tax scandal". Reuters UK. Retrieved 2016-04-05.
  8. ^ a b Panama Papers: Iceland PM Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson steps down BBC News, 6 April 2016
  9. ^ a b Henley, Jon (5 April 2016). "Iceland PM steps aside after protests over Panama Papers revelations". The Guardian. Retrieved 6 April 2016.
  10. ^ Iceland swears in new PM amid Panama Papers fallout CNN, 7 April 2016
  11. ^ Panama papers: Iceland names PM replacement BBC News, 7 April 2016
  12. ^ a b Electoral system IPU
  13. ^ "Sigurður Ingi kjörinn formaður Framsóknar". RÚV. 2016-10-02. Retrieved 2016-10-17.
  14. ^ a b "Píratar útiloka stjórnarflokkana". Retrieved 2016-10-17.
  15. ^ http://www.visir.is/kjorsokn-aldrei-verid-minni/article/2016161039950
  16. ^ http://www.wsj.com/articles/iceland-election-leaves-government-with-no-clear-majority-1477793918
  17. ^ http://icelandreview.com/news/2016/10/31/pirates-suggest-minority-government
  18. ^ http://grapevine.is/news/2016/10/31/elections-2016-what-will-icelands-next-government-be/
  19. ^ http://www.visir.is/vidreisn-utilokar-ekki-minnihlutastjorn-med-bjartri-framtid-og-vg/article/2016161039780
  20. ^ http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/independence-party-given-mandate-to-form-iceland-government/
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