Talk:Climate change

Use of the NASA GISS data charts

Why are the only two charts showing global warming at the top of the article from NASA GISS? There are eight or more different Global temperature datasets published by reputable authoritative sources, and GISS is known to be one of the most extreme and controversial of those. WP:NPOV, WP:DUE , and WP:BESTSOURCES would seem to require that we either also show some graphs based on datasets at the other end of the spectrum to balance the article, or instead include some graphs based on averaging of multiple datasets. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 06:29, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

GISS is known to be one of the most extreme and controversial of those? Sounds like nonsense to me William M. Connolley (talk) 08:55, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

I don't know about "eight or more" - the big ones are HadCrut, GISS, and NOAA, and I'd be surprised if more than a handful of people could recognise one of them from the others. They are so similar that the difference at the scale of our image does not matter. NASA images and datasets have the advantage that they are unquestionable public domain. And while we can recreate the simple plots easily, the world map with temperature differences is a lot less easy and requires a lot more data crunching, so its nice if a reliable source provides it. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 10:54, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

NOAA materials should be public domain just as NASA are. If anyone wants to use Berkeley Earth materials, I can also ensure that the licensing there is okay. Dragons flight (talk) 15:55, 31 January 2017 (UTC) P.S. I can tell the different time series apart.  ;-)

As an only slightly relevant observation: During "the pause" we had "skeptics" knocking at the door every January clamouring for updates and accusing everybody (but nobody in particular) of "hiding the truth". Since the warming has come back with a vengeance, the truth seems to be less urgent... --Stephan Schulz (talk) 11:05, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

You could always try and produce a better one with whatever sources you think satisfy DUE NPOV BESTSOURCES etc. and we can look at seeing if it is a better candidate for inclusion. Or even if you just have some good data to form a basis it may be possible to get one of the whizzes at commons to do a job on it. Have you some such data in mind? Dmcq (talk) 14:01, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

It's a simple statement of numerical fact that GISTEMP is at the hot extreme end of all the datasets in the world. And from one end to the other, there is wide discrepancy. And there are significantly more than eight datasets used regularly by climate scientists. Here are some of those datasets for global temperature (in no particular order) -

1. NASA (GISTEMP)
2. NOAA (MLOST or NOAAGlobalTemp)
3. UK Met Office (HadCRUT4])
4. Berkeley Earth, RSS
5. UAH 6.0 TLT
6. NOAA (CARDS)
7. AEROSTAB
8. NOAA (RATPAC)
9. UK Met Office (HadAT)
10. University of Vienna IMGW (RAOBCORE/RICH)
11. University of New South Wales CCRC (IUK Radiosonde Analysis Project)

and there are others. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:42, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

I notice you didn't even attempt to defend your use of "controversial". Of your 8, AEROSTAB is so obscure you can't even find a link to it and no-one has ever heard of it. Most of your others objections. Try to stick to reasonable suggestions William M. Connolley (talk) 15:18, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

Sorry, I presumed that everybody editing here was aware of all the controversies surrounding NASA GISS data. Here's one small example from the Washington Times in 2009, Global warming controversy reaches NASA climate data. But there are many others in the press and in the back and forth between climate scientists over the past decades. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:04, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

Another controversy surrounding NASA GISS discussed here Judicial Watch Uncovers NASA Documents Related to Global Warming Controversy. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:14, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

Astounding! Moonies at The Washington Times and some groups.google.com/forum think science is controversial!! Do you really want to give "equal validity" to these alternative realities? . . . dave souza, talk 03:53, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Several of the suggestions are not surface temperature records, and several are too short for showing development of the climate. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:19, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

Global warming is not measured solely by surface temperature records. Indeed, there are three types of datasets here - surface, satellite, and radiosonde - all independent methods of measuring and monitoring global temperature. For WP:BALANCE, it would make sense to have representative information from all three fundamentally different methodologies, that indeed produce widely varying results. The satellite records are available from 1979 to the present which is the prime period during which human influence is theorized to be most prevalent. With more than 40 years of data there, they are clearly not too short. The radiosondes go back to the beginning of the 20th century. With adjustments etc, the RATPAC radiosonde data goes back to 1958. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 20:36, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

Do all these others satisfy your idea of NPOV DUE and BESTSOURCE? Dmcq (talk) 15:53, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

These indeed are sources regularly used and cited by climate scientists in the peer reviewed literature. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 20:36, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

That isn't what I asked. If we use some of these will you then come back with other objections or are you happy with all of them? Dmcq (talk) 00:42, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

@Dmcq: I think that it would make sense to show one terrestrial data set, one lower troposphere, and one radiosonde. Don't you? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 06:22, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I thought I had asked a simple enough question. Either you can't understand the question or you don't want to answer the question. Dmcq (talk) 10:49, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I answered your question. I guess you just didn't read my response. My use of the term "it would make sense" indicates that yes indeed I would be happy if the graphics included one representative graph from each of the three types of data sources from the list I have provided. I am also open to other sources if there are better ones. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 15:08, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I've lost count of the individual assertions without RSs in this thread, but they are many and without RSs they are all prohibited as WP:Original research. At some point an endless stream of original research assertions becomes WP:Tendentious. Got a specific proposal for article improvement that contains a cite to a reliable source? SPit it out, else move on. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:12, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

I just gave you a list of 11 different reliable sources (ie data sets) that are regularly cited in the peer reviewed climate science literature. What, pray tell, is more reliable than that? My question was simply as I stated above, "Why are the only two charts showing global warming at the top of the article from NASA GISS?" As the article states at Global warming#Observed_temperature_changes,

The global average (land and ocean) surface temperature shows a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.[31] Earth's average surface temperature rose by 0.74±0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming almost doubled for the last half of that period (0.13±0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07±0.02 °C per decade).[32]

The average temperature of the lower troposphere has increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.23 and 0.40 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. [emphasis added]

That's a huge discrepancy between what the satellite records report and what the land based records report. And as you are well aware I presume, global warming theory predicts there should be more warming in the lower troposphere than at the surface. Perhaps a graph showing an average of the two satellite records, or one of the two satellite records—which are quite similar—would be appropriate? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 20:36, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

Here is an excellent summary graph, for example, showing the growing difference between the terrestrial datasets and the satellite datasets. The data for this graph is the global monthly average of HadCRUT4, NOAA MLOST, and NASA GISS minus the average of the two satellite sets RSS and UAH. The article is here. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 20:47, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

I just gave you a list of 11 different reliable sources (ie data sets clearly you aren't getting it. You could, maybe, produce an image using a dataset. See the policy on WP:Image policy. But anything you want to assert about these data sets is FROM YOUR OWN BLEEPIN HEAD and that makes it WP:Original research. If you want to not wear out your welcome and have us really consider something, find a WP:Reliable source that talks about those datasets and make a proposal for how the article can be improved on the basis of that reliable source, not your analysis of the datasets. I don't give two cents about your claims of what the numbers mean because you need to publish that analysis in the literature before wikipedia editors care. Anybody think I made an unfair comment here, please correct me. BTW if you find anyplace in our article where some OR slipped past us before, we can talk about that too. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 21:49, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

The only source given for the NASA GISS Graphs at the top of the article is the NASA GISS website. Do you mean an RS such as that? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 22:57, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

There are many graphs based on UAH and RSS data and the other mentioned datasets published in reliable sources. Are you asking me to propose some particular graphs? I was simply raising the question that it seems like for balance, we should have something other than one graph out of many available in the published literature especially one that is known to be controversial and at one end of the spectrum of representative graphs. And nowhere have I proposed publishing my own original research or interpretations of datasets. I am simply bringing them to your collective attention, because some of the respondents above said they were only aware of three datasets. Non need for hostility. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:17, 31 January 2017 (UTC)

In Wikipedia, always click on the image to see the full image file, and the metadata that is found at the bottom. IN this case the RS is not the website. The RS is NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It's a WP:PRIMARY work, and I don't see that we're doing any interpretation, so OR is not a problem for use of this graph. It sounds like you are trying to forumlate a criticism of use of this graph based on WP:WEIGHT. In formulating your arguments you continue to say you're not doing WP:Original research when in fact you are. The crux of your WEIGHT argument is your - repeat your - OR assertion that this graph is "one that is known to be controversial and at one end of the spectrum of representative graphs". All I can say at this point is yawn. If you wanna keep it up you need solid RSs that back up your claim that this graph really is controversial and at one end of spectrum of representative graphs". If - and only if - you come up with a solid RS for this point .... and RS that is self contained and needs no analysis on our part ..... only then is there anything to talk about here. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:42, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

The 'and there are others' at the end of the list indicates to me that the list you gave is not a list of ones you have vetted as satisfying your requirements but simply some list culled from the web. If it is the case you are just bringing up some weak objection and don't have any reasonably thought out alternative then this whole discussion does verge on being a waste of time. Dmcq (talk) 00:52, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

How about these two references as a starting point. They discuss UAH and GISS and have graphs and talk about some of the controversies surrounding GISS, they are WP:SECONDARY, and they are recent (2015) - Updated Satelitte Data Shows Even Less Global Warming Than Before, and Scientists to Investigate Government Climate Data 'Tampering' --TheClarinetGuy _talk 02:14, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

You want to use The Daily Caller as a source on a scientific topic? Are you serious? Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 02:23, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

(ec) @Cohler: Daily Caller? You're joking right? --McSly (talk) 02:26, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Insert choking sound effects NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 02:41, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Ah, but that's not the only source TheClarinetGuy proposes .. at 21:04 and 21:14 on 31 January they tried The Washington Times and some groups.google.com/forum – apparently trying to give "equal validity" to alternative facts. . . . . dave souza, talk 04:02, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

How about this very recently published paper Assessing Atmospheric Temperature Data Sets for Climate Studies published in Tellus A of the International Meteorological Institute in Stokholm which shows the NASA GISS data has a temperature trend significantly higher (.16ºC per decade) than the satellite datasets (.11º or .12º per decade) from 1979 to the present? The last couple of sentences of the conclusion state "We therefore strongly suggest that tropospheric temperature trends from re-analyses should replace surface temperature trends in future climate validation studies." [emphasis added] --TheClarinetGuy _talk 06:15, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

(A) You've quoted something. You have not told us how you think we can use the "something" to improve the article.

(B) Did you read the entire journal article, or just the JudithCurry blog post that provides this quote? (beware of confirmation bias)

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 09:08, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

@NewsAndEventsGuy: (A) I've told you repeatedly how it would improve the article. Please read before responding. I said we should provide some balance in this article regarding the fact that the top two graphics in the article come from NASA GISS and do not fairly represent the range of data published on the subject. I've also explained that global warming is measured by distinctly different methods, namely thermometers on the ground, satellites in the sky, and radiosondes on balloons. They give different results. We should represent that here.

(B) Yes I read the entire journal article and had not seen the Curry blog post, although I will definitely check it out.

--TheClarinetGuy _talk 15:03, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Just read the Curry post. I'm sure you noted that in her last sentence she states, "IMO, this is where true progress lies in terms of understanding the global temperatures". And before you jump on me, no I am not suggesting a blog post as a source, simply responding to your note re the Curry post. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 15:20, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

All you've said is we should do something to cure what, in your opinion, is a problem. You've said we should do something that would provide a solution to the alleged problem. You still haven't connected the dots between (A) problem definition (B) reliable sources on point and (C) the specific edits we could make to implement your undefined, abstract, mystery proposal. I'm getting weary of asking. See WP:DISRUPTSIGNS please. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:38, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

That is hardly all I've said. I have cited valid sources, I have suggested particular data sources, I have pointed to various possible graphs, I have provided reliable sources. The only thing I have not done was give the precise specific edits, because I was trying to build some consensus here before doing so. Is that not the proper way on WP? I would appreciate it if you would stop with the unfounded attacks and focus on the substance of the conversation. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 17:47, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I would have been happy if you had said what sources you would be happy with rather than just listing any you googled. Then we could have had a proper discussion and maybe come to some sort of idea about something to do. Anybody have anything that can be rescued from all this that is relevant to improving the article? Dmcq (talk) 10:54, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

@Dmcq: Above in this conversation, I responded to your query about this here saying "I think it would make sense to show one terrestrial data set, one lower troposphere, and one radiosonde, dont you?" And yes, I thought that I made it clear that I would be happy if the article did what I suggested in response to your question, namely use a graphic from one of the terrestrial data sets I listed (which obviously could be the GISS charts that are already there), a graphic from one of the satellite datasets, and one from the radiosonde datasets. I would recommend choosing graphics that show the differences between those datasets. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 15:03, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Please take a look at WP:SUMMARY. We have a breakout article on Instrumental temperature record and another on Satellite temperature measurements that contain more details and graphs. I think the primary GISS image has a number of advantages (pd, availability, directly from a reliable source), but I would in principle have no objection to use e.g. HadCRUT. I think we should have one of the century-scale temperature records, and I think it should be one of the better-known surface records. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:06, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I said that the GISS image was fine as one of the images. It, however, does not represent a fair and balanced WP:SUMMARY of the topic. Why only century scale and why only surface records? The satellite records have many advantages over the surface records and they cover the most important period of time from 1979 to the present. Indeed that is the entire period of time during which the global warming discussion has heated up and the IPCC came into existence etc. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 17:20, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Indeed the second graphic on the page now is not a "century-scale" temperature record, it goes from 1950 to 2014. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 17:51, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Climate is the long-term average of weather. "Long-term" is often defined as "30 years" in this context (i.e. around 2.5 of the 11-year solar cycles). 1979 to now is only 38 years, which is not much longer than the averaging period. That's why I think we should use one of the century-scale records. And with that assumption, it needs to be one of the surface records, because we don't have RSS and satellite records going back much further. Moreover, surface temperature is what people, glaciers, animals and fauna experience directly. You keep claiming that GISS is not fair and balanced, and so far we only had one person that claims he can distinguish the major records without labels (and he made one of them, which gives him a somewhat unfair advantage ;-). I maintain that NASA, NOAA and HadCRUT all transport essentially the same message. As for the second image: That is not a temperature graph, but only shows the difference between two point in time. I suspect that we (as in "the scientific community") don't have a good enough spatial coverage to produce a similar map for longer periods of time. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:59, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

First, as you point out, 38 years is considered a valid period of time over which to look at global temperature trends. Second, 1979 to the present, as I stated, includes the entire history of this scientific debate from even before the formation of the IPCC. The question of WP:BALANCE and WP:PROPORTION would seem to require that we not ignore the significantly different results that satellite, and radiosonde data have been showing us over the past approximately 40 years, and especially in the most recent 20 of those 40 years. As for the second image, it is a temperature chart showing the temperature trend between 1950 and 2014. And temperature trends are available going further back in time, and the coverage is quite complete. Here for example is a NASA GISS annual temperature trend from 1900 to 2016. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:44, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I'm sorry, but if you need a 30 year average to determine climate, 38 years just gives you 8 years of useful data points - to few for good statistics. Of course you can visualise this, but it lacks context (and the last valid data point would be 2002...). Do you know what spatial resolution means in this context? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:27, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

I favor moving the general discussion of this sort to user talk. Cohler has promised to produce draft text for an article edit with supporting reference. Per the TPG I suggest we just muzzle the dialogue until Cohler fulfills this promise. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 14:27, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

Cohler has said (s)he seeks agreement-in-general prior to proposing specific edits, however Cohler has sought support for his/her views with citation to the DailyCaller and vague group discussions in Google Groups. Given the low quality of those sources I have a heightened degree of caution about any other could-mean-anything general ideas in this thread. We're all in favor of a great article and proper balance. But despite all the text I'm not convinced there is a problem with the existing text. HOWEVER.... I think we'd all welcome the chance to take a fresh look at any specific draft text supported by cites to RS references. You can post draft text here, or you can just edit the article to show us what you mean. If there are no objections it won't be reverted, but if revert does happen that's OK... the reverted text will still show us something with tangible text and references to debate. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:51, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Your statement doesn't fairly represent what I have stated here. My citations of Washington Times, Daily Caller, and Google groups were in response to queries asking about the "controversy" surrounding the GISS data. Controversies are not generally written about in the peer-reviewed scientific literature but rather in newspapers and blogs and the like, that's why I provided those valid references. I also provided a recent peer-reviewed journal article totally on point to support inclusion of information about UAH, RSS and perhaps other graphs that use different methodologies and show significantly different results noticeable by even the casual reader. In any case, this is a discussion, not a game of WP "gotcha" which you seem to enjoy playing here. As nobody else has made any constructive proposals in response to any of my suggestions, I will put together a specific suggested edit to the page including sources etc. and present it here rather than directly editing the page. I should be able to finish that over the next two days. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:24, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

In re to your promise to "put together a specific suggested edit to the page including sources etc" I say wonderful; anyone who reviews my remarks will discover that is precisely what I requested in my first comment in this thread. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:44, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

The controversy should really be documented somewhere a bit reliable. This shows the problem I have with the expectation that people do things here without being specific what exactly. Practically anything in climate science is controversial if one includes blogs and suchlike. Why are you saying 'perhaps other graphs' except if you haven't actually checked? I keep getting the feeling work is being asked for without the expectation that you won't raise other objections about whatever else is used. Dmcq (talk) 21:38, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

What would you consider a reliable source for documenting a controversy if not an old, well-established, major metropolitan newspaper such as the Washington Times? As for 'perhaps other graphs' I am referring to the fact that I have repeatedly mentioned the radiosonde data as well, and the Tellus A article I cited above also presents another data set that might be a good choice as well. Perhaps you haven't had a chance to read the article yet, but it discusses a recent "re-analysis" from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) called the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERAI) data set.

--TheClarinetGuy _talk 22:13, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

No I think the Washington Times can qualify under RS now and no longer should just be dismissed as Moonies. However the article about it did not have anything much to say about the data. As I said before one can go and get such articles about anything in climate change, e.g. after the NASA one you have NOAA [1], UK Met office [2], and BEST [3] just to show how easy it is. That is why seeing which ones you would be happy about is so important rather than just grabbing a list using google. Dmcq (talk) 23:36, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Ok, lets have a glance at what the Washington Times reports: "Christopher C. Horner, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said NASA has refused for two years to provide information under the Freedom of Information Act that would show how the agency has shaped its climate data and explain why the agency has repeatedly had to correct its data dating as far back as the 1930s." So what? A lawyer at a fossil-fuel funded climate change denial lobby group issued a fake statement about climate science. Not news, and doesn't deserve any weight in this article about science. The relevant topic is already covered under Global warming#Discussion by the public and in popular media which, by a remarkable coincidence, mentions "Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute," . . dave souza, talk 01:23, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

@Dave souza: This is a specious argument. By your argument, any news organization, no matter how well established and known as a reliable source, becomes an unreliable source when it quotes someone with whom you disagree. Established news organizations are responsible for fact checking and balance as part of their basic journalistic responsibility. So your dismissal of this particular article because it happens to quote somebody with whom you disagree is incorrect. As it says at WP:NEWSORG ""News reporting" from well-established news outlets is generally considered to be reliable for statements of fact". Washington Times is clearly a well-established news outlet. And whether a controversy exists, is a self-evident fact, a well established news organization does not report on a "controversy" where none exists because that would be lying, something that reliable well-established news organizations don't do. So you are simply wrong here. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:31, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

He did not say it is an unreliable source. He said it is not news and does not deserve weight. Nobody here doubts that Horner thinks like that, and the source probably reliably reproduced what he said. --Hob Gadling (talk) 13:42, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Personally, I think we frequently get sucked back in to vague WP:FORUM type discussions instead of just waiting silently for specific proposed text. Vague discussions of balance or sources devoid of context are more in the category of general discussion, with exceedingly low signal-to-noise ratio. Cohler has promised to produce a proposed change to the text of the article. Me quiet, me wait. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:33, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

Yes that sort of covers my concern.. I think perhaps the question about controversy should have been put at Global warming controversy first and if there was problems then certainly something should be done about it. However the only controversy about NASA data there seems to be about them having censored climate change data during the Bush administration, basically suppressing inconvenient truth like the current administration is set to do. Dmcq (talk) 08:58, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

What was I just saying? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:06, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

References

graph of ocean temp

As well as surface temperature being of more immediate concern to humans than ocean temperature there is also the problem that the ocean is a huge heat sink. Currently it counteracts the warming on land, but if the warming continues the long lag in it will make it harder to keep the temperature down in the future. Anyway it doesn't really illustrate the current problem since it foes have a long lag. It therefore is useful to climate scientists but would just be another source of confusion if put in the lead of the article. If desired it can be put further don with a proper explanation. Dmcq (talk) 20:21, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

I'm not agreeing that "it" can be put anywhere, until someone shows the proposed contents of "it". NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:57, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Proposal for some additional graphics

Here is one of the graphs I would propose using. It is the latest (Jan 2017) lower troposphere global temperature series from UAH 6.0 shown with raw monthly data and smoothed data, much like the current NASA GISS graph. The data runs from December 1978 to January 2017 which is from the beginning of this satellite data to the present and covers the entire period of time during which warming has occurred since the mid-20th century. As you can see from the NASA GISS graph on the page now, from 1880 to 1910 global temp decreased, from 1910 to mid 1940s it increased, from mid 1940s to mid 1970s it decreased, and from late 1970s to present it increased. So the coverage of the satellites from 1979 to present covers the entire recent warming referenced by the IPCC as since 1951. The graph is by Dr. Roy Spencer, Principal Research Scientist at UAH and he works with NASA as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on NASA's Aqua satellite. I contacted him about sourcing and permission for the graph which is published now at the top of his blog. He emailed me back and stated, "I created the graphic, and you are free to use it." How would we proceed from here? I am not familiar with the complete process for including images on WP pages. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 23:45, 2 February 2017 (UTC)

Opposed In the prior part of the discussion, you promised to produce article text with reliable sources, so we know what you're trying to say. If you can produce something that passes muster, I'd be glad to consider an image to help illustrate those additions/changes to the main text. But you didn't do that, and it is still a mystery what you want to communicate. Per Wikipedia:Manual of Style/Images we use images to help convey the information in the article. We now have three images with squiggly lines that show temperature increases. One has a very long time scale. Another shows El Nino cycles. That leaves the GISS graph, which shows warming over the past several decades. Your new graph appears to also show warming over the last several decades. To me it looks redundant. I know you want to claim that there's some sort of something that we really need to describe with some text to cure an alleged balance question, but you haven't actually told us the RSs that support this or what article text you would include. No text, no need to illustrate with a picture. Opposed. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:55, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

The series starts long after mid century. I think the one there already is better. One year is too short for smoothing to say anything about climate. Five years is also a bit short but it at least smooths over a few years. Your picking of highs and lows for the sequence of reduces and increases is cherry-picking OR. This series has been involved in a number of controversies and has been regularly and extensively revised which doesn't inspire confidence that it is now reasonably okay. It is also unclear what on earth the Jan 2017 +0.3 deg. C is about. What is the baseline that it is relative to? I think it probably is okay for a scientist but it doesn't work as an illustration in the lead for this article. Dmcq (talk) 01:17, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

The chosen baseline in the Spencer graphic is 1981-2010 so lost in that average is the 20 years of warming after the IPCC report in 1990. Does the data exist to produce a similar graph for the same time period as the GISS graph, and calculating the baseline over the same time period? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:52, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

Does that mean the baseline is the average value between 1981 and 2010? I doubt they are fitting a trend as they take it as an article of faith that any changes are anomalies. That would mean it is the rise in about the last 20 years from about 1995. Anyway it being a beta does rule it out even more than what I was saying. Dmcq (talk) 12:01, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

Somewhat neutral - I could see the point of a subsection on tropospheric temperature trends although the article is somewhat bloated already. This would need to include additional data sources (RSS, RATPAC, etc.) as well as a brief discussion of the limitations of the data, such as the greater structural uncertainty in satellite data compared to the surface temperature record. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:29, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

I agree it makes sense to cover temp trends other than just the usual one that makes headlines and that this article is already pushing the WP:Article size limits. Maybe do it at Instrumental temperature record or as a section of its own at Troposphere? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 01:44, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

UAH6 is still in beta; so no, we should not use it William M. Connolley (talk) 08:52, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

No it is not. It was released on April 2015 with the comment from Roy Spencer, "This should be considered a “beta” release of Version 6.0, and we await users’ comments to see whether there are any obvious remaining problems in the dataset. In any event, we are confident that the new Version 6.0 dataset as it currently stands is more accurate and useful than the Version 5.6 dataset". As of the UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2016 published December 1, 2016 it is no longer in beta. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 21:15, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

What I just heard is similar to the following absurdity

• Saying "This is a dime," a man gave me a dime.
• Later I gave the dime to you.
• You said, "Gee thanks for the dime".
• I reply, "No it's not a dime, because the guy that gave it to me said it is."

If Spencer says the image is beta how on earth can you say it isn't ? But nevermind because it doesn't really matter We don't use images that don't describe the article and so far you have not proposed any article text that would be relevant to this image. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 22:04, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

Well whatever Spencer says is a bit irrelevant to the matter at hand because there are too many problems with the image to use it in the lead of the article. I think it was proposed because it has satellite data in it, but the big problem with satellites is they only started being used very recently in climate or major industrialization terms. Dmcq (talk) 23:25, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

This statement represents your OR and is not supported by science. This data is used and cited regularly throughout the climate science community. It is not "recent" in terms of the recent global warming which began in the late 1970s precisely when this data became available. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:24, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Radiosonde data just about might be okay for a reasonable period. Perhaps it could be incorporated into the same graph as there already if there really is a desire to have the temperature higher up in the atmosphere included in the lead. Personally I'd keep the lead simple and people live on the ground. Dmcq (talk) 23:48, 3 February 2017 (UTC)

Saying "people live on the ground" is an irrelevancy. The subject of the article is "Global warming". The question is what is it, how is it measured, etc... It is measured in several ways, and this article grossly over represents the terrestrial measurements (indeed only one of the four major terrestrial sets) and grossly under represents the satellite and radiosonde measurements. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:29, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

'Saying "people live on the ground" is an irrelevancy'?, warming at ground level is the main reason people other than climate scientists are concerned about global warming, and they don't worry overmuch about the troposphere. Wikipedia should address its main audience for a topic especially in the lead. Anyway the satellite data as I said is unsuitable as it only covers a part of the period of interest and radiosonde data would be better for this type of measurement from that point of view. Your ideas the period of interest only being from 1979 is OR and the IPCC say otherwise and even in that you ignore for instance the importance of the strong El Nino during world war 2. The satellite data could go elsewhere or in its own article or with other data further down where proper text could be put beside it but it is unsuitable for the lead. Dmcq (talk) 21:18, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Warming at the ground level is one of the many effects of Global warming. And indeed it has been verified by long-term measurement that Global warming from GHGs causes warming at the ground, warming in the troposphere, and cooling in the stratosphere. All of these things are related to each other and predicted to varying degrees by scientific understanding. In science, we look for verification based upon independent empirical evidence. Currently, there are at least three long-term documented, reliable, and highly cited methods of documenting the warming that has taken place: ground-based thermometers, satellite measurements, and radiosondes. One method of measurement is not more important than another because "people live on the ground". All three methods measure Global warming. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 12:45, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

@NewsAndEventsGuy: You need to read everything I wrote before responding. Not take it out of context. First, he didn't say it is a beta release, he said it should be "considered" a beta release, and in any case, as of the temperature update for November 2016, it is no longer considered beta. I gave the citation. Go look for yourself. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:21, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Re You need to read everything I wrote before responding. I carefully read each comment following WP:Assume good faith. You have made claimed there is imbalance you have pointed to a graph, you have pointed to a google group discussion, to a Wash Times pieced quoting someone from CEI, but what you have not yet done is provided the text of a proposed article edit for which any of this discussion matters. I decline to just jam in the graph without text in the body of the article that needs to be illustrated with the graph. I decline to just tack on the Wash times cite to some random sentence. I'll ask once more before I start thinking about a formal complaint at WP:Arbitration Enforcement. Would you please provide us with the actual text of a proposed article edit including citation to the alleged WP:Reliable source you think meets our WP:Verification policy? NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:20, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Well I don't find myself agreeing with you often but I do on this. Text should be added to the body of an article first - the article should not be written in the lead and the lead should summarize he article. The lead is already too long and putting something there without developing the body first is just wrong. Dmcq (talk) 21:18, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Resulting article edit

Housekeeping, This thread has produced an article edit that changes the old text

The average temperature of the lower troposphere has increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.23 and 0.40 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.

to new text

The average temperature of the lower troposphere has increased between 0.12 and 0.135 °C (0.216 and 0.243 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements.

Great, let's discuss

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:37, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

My comment was in response and in reference to your sarcastic comment about "Spencer says". As for text, it already exists in the article, and I have just updated it with the correct, most recent numbers and added citations, which were completely missing for those numbers. I would also appreciate it if you didn't keep issuing veiled and unveiled threats in response to my purely professional and scientific discussion here. I absolutely do assume good faith on your part here and hope that you will do so as well. I would add that I have already stated several times the sources that I believe meet WP:RS and WP:Verification in a list I proposed above. But in any case, here I will repeat that UAH and RSS both satisfy those criteria and have already been used repeatedly on Wikipedia as sources for satellite data and information. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 13:04, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Thanks for telling us, via the diff in your prior comment, exactly what you wanted to change in the article. For me, this is where the real discussion begins. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:29, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

So exactly why didn't you try putting your graph in that section first? Why are you so insistent that practically duplicate and limited time information be shoved in the lead? At its current size I think you should start thinking about what should be taken out of the lead if something is shoved in and I'm pretty certain this is not sufficiently different or notable to warrant anything like that. If we had got no satellite data it would not make much difference to the article or to the science or the main effects people are interested in or public policy -it just makes checking the science and fixing problems easier. Dmcq (talk) 14:00, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

I've been trying to look into the status of UAH v6.0 and have been finding it surprisingly difficult. RSS has a clear and professionally-organized web page where you can obtain the data set along with detailed information on methodology, verification studies, and the like (here). All I can find on UAH v6.0 is blog posts. Does anyone know if there is an official repository with documentation for UAH v6.0? Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 15:02, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

The parent directory for all the UAH MSU data is here on the website of the National Space Science and Technology Center (joint venture with NASA) of University of Alabama Huntsville. The directory structure is very clear and used widely by the climate science community. Indeed even organizations such as NASA and NOAA use this data. Dr. Roy Spencer provides updates about the data regularly in his blog, and the data itself is used and cited in numerous peer reviewed articles over the last four decades. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 13:53, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Yeah Spencer's blog. Well he's entitled to give his opinion on policy matters even if he supports Trump who wants to stop scientists giving theirs. I must admit to just feeling disgust for his business about that just forgetting about global warming will help millions of people not starve - and immediately next talks about about how awful it is that the UN tries to get some rich countries to help poor countries cope. People have an amazing capacity to delude themselves into believing two contradictory things at once. But anyway the problem is that there was going to be some review of the methods used where since there was a complete rewrite in 2015 but now he's declared it all out of beta and I haven't seen this review. Even so I am not objecting to the graph being put in the section beside the text about the satellite data though I was as I said before wondering where exactly the arrow at the end and the figure beside it came from. Perhaps that can be deleted as there seems no straightforward explanation plus the placement of the base line seems rather arbitrary being the average of half of the graph as far as I can make out. Dmcq (talk) 14:47, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

It would be OK to include a plot of upper-atmospheric temperature trends, but not this specific graph. It uses only one data source and the quality of the plot is mediocre at best. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 15:00, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

I'll just note that the "old" text in the housekeeping note abovet appears to have been added (in a different section) 'way 'way back in 2004 sometime, and near as I can tell it has never had a citation to a supporting RS... (wikilink to the other article doesn't count). NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 16:57, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

refs for this subsection

References

Return to Spencer Graph discussion

FYI, Dr. Roy Spencer works with NASA in the joint venture between UAH and NASA as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. He is a preeminent, award-winning scientist with numerous peer-reviewed articles to his credit on this precise subject. I don't understand all the off-topic comments here about politics and other WP:OR with claims such as "the quality of the plot is mediocre at best". According to whom? And "It uses only one data source" which is true of nearly all the graphics on the page, and is not a valid reason for excluding a graph. Can we please stick to the scientific discussion here? The graph I proposed is the official, accurate, most up to date, properly sourced graph on the subject of lower-troposphere global temperature measurements. As far as I can see here, nobody has given a valid scientific, sourcing, or verifiability reason against using the graph. Just some off-topic discussion of politics and WP:OR opinions. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:16, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

The off topic comments about his politics was because you pointed at his blog as the place to find some science answers from but it is full of his bullshit politics and the answers are not there or are very hard to find. Why could he not separate his science from his religious and libertarian views and have a status page for the results and graphs? Dmcq (talk) 20:25, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

@Dmcq: Untrue. The blog post I pointed to was the currently posted, purely scientific post that has no mention of politics in it whatsoever. The title of the post is "UAH Global Temperature Update for January, 2017: +0.30 deg. C February 1st, 2017." --TheClarinetGuy _talk 08:17, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

You wrote just before that "Dr. Roy Spencer provides updates about the data regularly in his blog" and talking about scientists regularly citing that blog. Please check your facts first. I found only one item about the science at the top which I presume is being used as an advertisement for people to read the rest of the stuff. And even that one item was just him restating data and putting out the graph with his own silly markup. Dmcq (talk) 09:02, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

@Dmcq: As for the arrow at the end of the graph, that is simply pointing out that in January 2017—the most recent month—the global lower troposphere temperature anomaly (i.e. difference from the base period) is +0.30 ºC (which is an increase from December, which was 0.24ºC, as you can see in the raw data here or on his blog here). --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:25, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Thank you for one of the many reasons why the graph is "mediocre at best." There's no scientific reason for pointing out the most recent data point on a graph that is meant to convey long-term trends. More broadly, Spencer needs to read Tufte (as do many scientists). Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 18:34, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

According to whom? The graph shows the entire period from 1979 to the present. Again, that's your opinion about proper graph labeling, and not the opinion of the renowned U.S. Science Team leader for the project. You keep making unsourced WP:OR statements, please cite a source for such a statement. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:45, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

As I pointed out before it is not obvious that the baseline is some average between 1980 and 2010 or what the meaning of picking some baseline like that is. Would it not be far better to show the trend over a decade or more which would actually be something people could use? Will he change the baseline to have the end year change when we get to 2020 for instance? That would certainly help bring down the anomalies! And I fully agree with Shock Brigade Harvester Boris, the month by month business is weather, not climate. Just because he is renowned doesn't mean his graphs are marvels of exposition n ever mind relevance. Dmcq (talk) 20:25, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

@Dmcq: The baseline period is simply the period of time which is averaged to choose the 0 point on the y-axis, and has no effect whatsoever on trends. It is an arbitrary decision to choose where 0 lies on the y-axis. An "anomaly" graph is showing differences from a chosen 0 point, that's all. But when we are talking about trends, i.e. the slope of the temperature change per decade, the 0 point on the y-axis is irrelevant. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 07:10, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

I'm glad you acknowledge that trends are important. But that is not what he is doing. A trend is a change/time. He gives a change from a baseline which does not start at a defined time. The only good reason for doing something like that is if there is no trend. If we were talking about trends we'd be doing a regression fit to a line or smoothing over a longer period than one year say 10 years which is near to a solar cycle and would remove part of the confounding factors he thinks are important. I hope you're starting to understand why others see a problem with that graph. Dmcq (talk) 09:13, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

@Cohler, I acknowledge your frustration, but you took a long time showing us article text that makes the graph matter. There is a housekeeping hurdle that ALL images has to overcome, and that's licensing. The prefered repository for all of our graphics is the Wikipedia Commons. Using the upload utility try to post the graph. There will be a section where you have to describe the authority by which we have legal permission to use the image. Unless something else fulfills that rule, you may need Dr Spencer to release a copy with the appropriate creative commons license. I'm not saying this to be difficult, I've run into the precise same objections when I have tried to upload stuff. There are eds who patrol images and pounce on copyvio problems - or even the possibility of problems - regardless of subject or content. You'll also have to describe the RSs on which the graph is based. Once the image is loaded to the commons and objections have been resolved it is available for use at any article whenever appropriate, though each articles editors may disagree on whether its an improvement to that specific venue. Anyway, if you want to push the graph (or any image) like all of us you'll have to document satisfactory licensing NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 18:39, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

No frustration here. But thank you. I didn't know there was a time limit on these things. I have been working on many different things, including my full time career as a clarinetist and teacher, and trying to make a valuable contribution here while learning and trying to not come off like I am trying to dictate anything. This is a joint effort after all is it not? Thank you for the information on image uploading. Do all images go through Commons? Or is there another simpler method where they can go directly onto Wikipedia? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:49, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

You can see commons:File:Smart_waterbomb.jpeg where I got permission from the designer of a model even though I made it myself. The data for that graph should be available for someone here to make a graph if asked but the original would be copyright Spencer. Dmcq (talk) 20:32, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

See Help:Introduction_to_images_with_Wiki_Markup/4 "it is generally better to upload your free images to Wikimedia Commons, a shared site where an image can be uploaded once and then used by any of these projects"; also the tab for "free use" says in part "If you are contributing an image which is your own work, the simplest option is to release it under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike license. " IF Spencer wants to release it under that license, then it can be uploaded subject to our other rules like verifiability... it would need to be a fair presentation of the underlying data, and if that's not WP:SKYISBLUE obvious to people, you might need an RS that says the graph presents the data. I'm not an image-policy expert, but we do have resource poeple who can help with that. Not sure offhand how to fidn them, but you can do your own looking without much trouble if you need help. For one thing, ask at WP:Reference desk NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:42, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

The entire discussion of "beta" seems like a red-herring. FIrst, the data is not and never was "beta" in the traditional sense of the word which means a "pre-release". It was completely released from the first day it was released back in 2015. Which is why Spencer said it could be "considered beta" although they released it to the public, it continues to be used and cited, and he stated at initial release, "we are confident that the new Version 6.0 dataset as it currently stands is more accurate and useful than the Version 5.6 dataset". If you want to get into questions of the validity of various datasets and the numerous updates that are made to them, there are many such questions all the time. Those questions are resolved by the scientists and organizations who publish the data, not by us here. But at any given point in time, like now, the released data is the released data. And the UAH 6.0 data is what it is, it is the current official, reliable, non-beta, released data of UAH 6.0. Seems pretty clear and simple. Do you have any support for saying that the UAH 6.0 data is unreliable data? The whole point of science is new research is being done all the time and data improvements are made all the time. Indeed the NASA GISS data has been updated many times as have been all the data sets. We should be citing and sourcing to the most recent versions of the official data sets, not doing our own WP:OR here and second guessing the data sets themselves. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 18:42, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

You use the plural "data sets," so I'm sure you'll agree that we should include more than just UAHv6.0. This graph would be an excellent starting point as it includes UAH, RSS, and the HadAT radiosonde analysis (and is much more clearly presented than Spencer's graph). Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:13, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Other graphs are fine as I have said repeatedly. The graph you propose here, however, is very out of date and seems to end 3 or more years ago, and uses multiple generations of old versions of all the datasets mentioned. So I would definitely be against this particular graph as it is clearly out of date. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 19:29, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

For example here is the most recent RSS data with a trendline showing the RSS figure of 0.135ºC per decade. While it has a trend line in the graph, and it has the correct, most recent data, it doesn't have the smoothed curve as in the Spencer graph or the NASA GISS graph at the top of the article that everybody seemed to like. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 19:33, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

That's a nice, clean graph. Still, it would be best to find one that includes multiple data sets. If that's not possible someone could download and plot the data. (Any volunteers?) Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:42, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

John Christy's testimony to Congress on February 2, 2016 also contains several good graphics showing averaged trend lines of all the satellite and radiosonde datasets versus the CMIP5 models of AR5 showing the agreement of the satellite and radiosonde information and their wide divergence from the model runs. The RSS website also contains an excellent graphic here showing the divergence of its lower troposphere measurements from the CMIP5 models here (see Fig. 1) . And I thought that downloading and plotting the data was WP:OR isn't it? --TheClarinetGuy _talk 19:45, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

When evaluating any two graphs, A or B, I favor the one that is discussed in a WP:SECONDARY source of significant WP:WEIGHT, rather than relying on the judgment of wikipedia editors. What's the best graph to be discussed in such a source? As equivalent sources with more recent versions get published, then we can update.NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:47, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Downloading and plotting data isn't WP:OR as long as it's a straightforward representation of the data. We even have instructions at Wikipedia:How to create charts for Wikipedia articles. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 21:03, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

I knew that and I said nothing about OR. Are you guys debating which dataset or which graph to use? I thought you were, and was opining that the way to pick between the options is the way that best avoids UNDUE by selecting the graph discussed in SECONDARY sources with greatest weight. If there's no debate about which graph or data set to use, then nevermind. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:02, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Sorry, that was meant for User:Cohler aka TheClarinetGuy. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:05, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Oh, apologies right back at ya, Boris. Damn those ambiguous indents.... NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:14, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

@Shock Brigade Harvester Boris: If what you are saying is correct, then I guess I was under the mistaken impression from some comments made previously on this page that plotting the data ourselves was considered WP:OR. If that is not the case, I would be happy to put together a graph that uses the most recent data from five of the major sources with trend lines, caption, and citations to the most recent data from all referenced sources. Is that acceptable to all here? I would recommend the following sources all plotted with co-terminating trend lines from 1979 through 2016 (the entire range of the satellite data), which includes essentially all of the IPCC-referenced post-1950 global warming, as you can see in the NASA GISTEMP (LOTI) graph below (the one that is at the top of the article). All of these data sources are widely cited, readily available, and easily accessible. Furthermore, the 37-year period from 1979 through 2016 is well over the the typical 30-year climate averaging period.

1. Terrestrial - NASA GISTEMP, and UK Met Office HadCRUT4
2. Satellite - RSS 3.3, UAH 6.0
3. Radiosonde - NOAA RATPAC-A

I believe a graph such as I have described above would bring this article up to date in a major way, and help the reader to see—in a single image—where things stand, with a balanced representation of the most recent global warming information from all three types of measuring methodologies. If all agree, I would be happy to do this.

--TheClarinetGuy _talk 04:53, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

I see NewsAndEventGuy said that to you about setting up a graph yourself a while ago or you could have just looked at the graphs that are there, but I guess it is easy to miss. I'm not keen on burdening the lead with another graph but if it can substitute for one in a clean way that would be okay. If it just dealt with the last 30 years that should really go further down the article in the instrumental record section. It is okay to have a graph covering a longer period but some lies in it only covering part of the full period. Dmcq (talk) 09:33, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Dmcq As I said, it would cover 37 years not 30, and what "lies" are referring to? I assume with good faith that you are not referring to me, and it certainly is not my intent to publish the lies of anyone else, only reliable scientific data. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 13:49, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

The lies was lines with the n missing. 30 years is about the period when one goes from weather to climate. In that respect the satellite data is fine but very restricted. Dmcq (talk) 15:51, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Cohler, at 21:49, 31 January 2017 I urged you to read WP:Image use policy. Better late than never. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 11:23, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

NewsAndEventsGuy Thank you. I did read WP:Image use policy but based on the discussion here, it was not clear to me what constituted "analysis" (e.g. the act of plotting data could be considered as analysis by some people). In any case, it seems clear to me now based on the consensus received and duly noted at this point. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 13:53, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Perhaps WP:CALC is more relevant on that point. Plotting the data is what everyone does so it is a routine and obvious way of treating the data. If people did not produce graphs very much like that then it would be questionable. Dmcq (talk) 15:56, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

I prefer to keep a simple and clean svg graph with a single long term dataset whatever it is, while there can be some interannual variability differences and a lot of discusssion over the recent arctic warming coverage bias multiple dataset are in close agreement over a period long enough to reflect climate change. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3MbWABVYAER3vb.jpg:large

What i doesn't like of the current graph is the lowess smooth that jumps at the end because of a couple of warm years, a smoother shoud not be influenced by interannual variability so much.Giorgiogp2 (talk) 09:58, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

That was something I was meaning to look up because of course a simple moving average doesn't work near the ends besides really not being a particularly wonderful way of doing the job. But any reasonable smoother would be better than just giving the latest figure. On the other hand the advantage of something simple is that people can understand it rather than it being yet another thing they latch on to so they can show China is in some conspiracy. Dmcq (talk) 12:06, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

@Cohler, in your proposal you have suggested

A. general concept That we expand explanation of how the different parts of the atmosphere respond to global warming. In general I think that's a good idea and belongs in a sub-article due to WP:Article size, and maybe WP:NOTJOURNAL. Something I have never made time to do but would like to see is to elaborate on the five parts of the overall climate system because right now that redirects to Climate and in my opinion we do an insufficient job explaining how the five parts interact. The info is here, but its sort of spread out. (If I'm overlooking some pithy language on this somehwere, please point it out.) It might be possible to tease out Climate system from Climate without creating a WP:POVFORK, and that might be a good place to compare the different ways different parts of the atmosphere are responding. Maybe there is a better sub article to host this.

B. implied imbalance Again you assert there is some sort of lack of balance your words "help the reader to see... where things stand, with a balanced representation...". The word "balance" among wikipedia editors is a red flag that usually involves WP:POV or WP:UNDUE type issues. The way in which I have been responding to you is driven by my belief that's what you're tryinng to say... i.e., that you think the existing text is "imbalanced" in some vague way violates WP:POV or WP:UNDUE. If that's really what you mean, then please cite the operative language from WP:POV or WP:UNDUE, and then explain with citation to WP:Reliable sources how the existing text is in violation of WP:POV or WP:UNDUE. On the other hand, today I had a new thought.... maybe you simply mean we have yet to elaborate on how the different parts of the atmosphere respond to the warming. If that's what you meant by "balance" then since this is a term-of-art among wikipedia editors, you could better communicate your meaning with other words, such as "We should include (or elaborate on) XYZ".

C. 3 way graph I don't see the benefit of overlaying the three temp trends on a single graph, and believe the result would be cluttered especially for a lay audience NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 12:38, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

@NewsAndEventsGuy My responses to your three points -

A. general concept I disagree that it is the subject for a separate article, but rather the central element of the article. Indeed, the topic sentence currently reads "Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects." The troposphere is where the entire climate system takes place. See lead sentence of Troposphere - "The troposphere is the lowest portion of Earth's atmosphere, and is also where all weather takes place." Satellites and radiosondes measure the entire troposphere; terrestrial datasets measure only the first few feet of it.

B. implied balance My reference to WP:BALANCE is not vague. I have stated all of this before, but I will repeat here. The different datasets I have mentioned are all widely cited in the literature and give very different results. Citing only one of them is clearly unbalanced. As for the specific parts of the policies, I believe the pertinent text is at WP:BESTSOURCES and WP:BALANCE.

C. 3 way graph I don't believe the graph will look too cluttered, but the proof is in the pudding, I suppose. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 14:13, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

After reading part A I think this is hopeless... after all this discussion, you are equating climate and weather and claim that "the entire climate system", such as the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, takes place in the troposphere. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 15:15, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Nowhere did I even remotely "equate climate and weather". Furthermore, I didn't make any "claims", but rather I quoted passages from existing Wikipedia articles on Global warming and troposphere. As I'm sure you know, "climate is the statistics of weather, usually over a 30-year interval." Furthermore, from troposphere, "The troposphere is the lowest portion of the Earth's atmosphere, and is also where all weather takes place." Therefore, using basic logic, we must look at averages of weather, such as things like temperature, humidity, and so on averaged over long periods of time to determine climate and climate change aka global warming. To do so we must look at the troposphere. Currently, this article underrepresents tropospheric data and overemphasizes surface measurements. That is totally self-evident. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 19:18, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

I decline to argue the point; if you try to edit the article or run an RFC on draft article text I may have something to say at that time. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:55, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Wikipedia is a general encyclopaedia and global warming is a topic the general public is interested in. What you are talking about is too specialized for the lead of an article like this. You can google 'global warming introduction' and read any of the stuff that comes up. That shows the sort of stuff that goes into a top level introduction to the topic.They don't go on about the satellite date in the first thousand words or so or the differences between a number of different measurements and proxies. It is just your idea of what is important to show at this level. As an encyclopaedia we should do what is normally done in reliable sources introducing the topic and we should be trying to do it so the first part of the article is readable by the general public.. Dmcq (talk) 17:18, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

Another red herring. For a while now here we have not been talking about the lede. We are talking about a graphic to accompany statements under Global warming#Observed_temperature_changes regarding satellite measurements. And this should be expanded to include radiosondes as I have also mentioned repeatedly. --TheClarinetGuy _talk 19:18, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

I don't remember any indication from you that you had given up sticking the graph in the lead but I'm glad you have. Dmcq (talk) 20:13, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

FYI This blog post by Gavin Schmidt may be useful at least on background. See "Comparing models to the satellite datasets". NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 20:16, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

References

Neutrality

The existence of global warming is a debatable topic, and this article is saying that it is real, so it has a non-neutral point of view. Keep in mind that not everybody believes global warming is real. - ZLEA (talk) 19:02, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

The WP:TPG requires neutral section headings and says no one has exclusive claim to them, so ironically it was necessary to change it to a neutral form. Not everyone believes smoking is bad for you either. At this point, these views can still be reported on Wikipedia, but fall under the provisions of WP:FRINGE. For example, see Climate change denial. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:09, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

@ZLEA: please read the FAQ at the top of the page before asking questions already covered there. --McSly (talk) 19:17, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

The POV that global warming is not real is a fringe view that is not backed up by climate scientists at large. As McSly mentioned, see the FAQ. Dustin (talk) 22:04, 1 February 2017 (UTC)

Global warming has occurred for more than 10,000 years. The debate here is about specific man made catastrophic global warming theories. The lower troposphere satellite measurements and the tidal gauges show that no such thing has occurred. Good luck getting that into wikipedia though — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:100A:B127:6565:C1DF:EAD3:AD99:C354 (talk) 12:12, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

The first claim is wrong. The second claim is unsupported opinion. The third one is both a straw man and most likely based on the selective reading of unreliable blogs cherry-picking and misrepresenting data. Do you have any source to support these? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:20, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

As an aside, bear in mind that most veteran Wikipedia editors, as well as most people in the world, are bored with any claim that there is an "argument" surrounding global warming's existence. In all probability nobody can be bothered arguing with you any more, not because they cannot counter your claims, but because the article as it stands does that already. If you're not convinced by science, nobody can be bothered wasting their time with you.

Saying many people don't believe global warming is real isn't a reliable source of scientific inquiry. It's as nonsensical as saying, "Many people don't believe that Belgium is a real location, so you should make it clear that there is still some argument about this." A neutral point of view means sticking to factual data. Comb through the references to this article, especially the FAQ, if you're unconvinced that this topic isn't verified extensively.

As dismissive as it seems, people have better things to do than engage in constant fringe theories. This discussion page is about how to improve the article, with up-to-date data, copy editing and the likes. If you feel that a specific part of the article is not up to standard, please point it out and express your frustration. The lead section of this article is suitably sourced, so your complaint that it isn't neutral does not hold weight.Vision Insider (talk) 04:16, 27 March 2017 (UTC)

Fixing the lead

The lead to this article has gotten terribly bloated. Not only is there too much text, but the lead has three (3) illustrations of the temperature trend and two (2) illustrations of emissions. (In the body there are even more graphs of the temperature anomalies.) I'm tempted to take a meataxe to the whole thing but given this is a FA I'm slightly hesitant. Thoughts? Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 21:32, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Get rid of all figures in the lead except the graph of temp since 1880. Isambard Kingdom (talk) 21:43, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Would someone who knows how please look up the date it was granted FA status, and then post a DIFF to that version? There might be something to be said for just reverting to that basic text, with a few updates to AR5 etc. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:40, 4 February 2017 (UTC)

Good point. The article was approved as an FA in mid-May 2006. This is what it looked like on its first day with the coveted gold star. A tight and very readable lead with just one graph, showing the surface temperature trend since 1880. (User:Isambard Kingdom, did you cheat?) The lead in that version could be adapted to the present article with only minor changes. Shock Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:21, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

No, I didn't cheat! Ha. The present lead section looks good with just one graphic. Makes the point very clearly. Isambard Kingdom (talk) 01:40, 17 March 2017 (UTC)

Do it! NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:28, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Agree, i particularly doesn't like the video and single year anomaly, i would keep a long term temperature graph and a trend map maybe with a better color table, this one looks better if it can be used: http://berkeleyearth.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Trend_Map_since_19701.png Giorgiogp2 (talk) 10:25, 6 February 2017 (UTC)

I was brave enough to kill the video. I quite like the single year anomaly, or rather I like the map, because I think a pic of the geographical variation is a valuable antidote to the "global average" idea we so often get.

I propose that the emissions pix are secondary. I don't really like either, but I think one or the other should lead the "causes" section... actually I'll just do it, revert me if you don't agree William M. Connolley (talk) 21:25, 14 February 2017 (UTC)

On my screen, the "TOC" is now rather long and horrible. Does anyone know how to fold it into 2-column format? William M. Connolley (talk) 21:35, 14 February 2017 (UTC)

I'm done for now. Comments? William M. Connolley (talk) 22:07, 14 February 2017 (UTC)

feel like someone just crammed their rebreather mouthpiece between my lips....in the nick of time, too. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 00:46, 15 February 2017 (UTC)

Global warming in the news, again

It appears that recent political events may have pushed global warming, or more accurately, global warming denial into the news again. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/feb/05/mail-on-sunday-launches-the-first-salvo-in-the-latest-war-against-climate-scientists

"the denial industry has lost the battle on the science. There are no reputable scientists who discount the enormous human influence on our Earth’s climate. Because they have lost that battle, they are manufacturing doubt about the science." --Nigelj (talk) 23:26, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Shouldn't this go at the climate change denial article rather than here? Dmcq (talk) 23:49, 5 February 2017 (UTC)

Actually the world's leading expert in the trend of global temperature, John Christy, disagrees with you. As do the satellite measurements and tidal gauges — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:100A:B127:6565:C1DF:EAD3:AD99:C354 (talk) 12:18, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

Thanks for the laugh! . . dave souza, talk 16:37, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

Global Warming

Global warming is a term to describe the increase in global temperature which is believe to be permanently changing the earth’s climate. An issue that is not getting the immediate response it needs. Scientist believe the main cause of this warming is the continuous use of burning fossil fuels and coal. In outcomes the gases that are being produce are trapped in the atmosphere and blocking heat from escaping. Thus causing the earth to heat up and have negative results on its climate. Irregular seasonal patterns develop and increase of CO2 into the air is not controlled, which in large quantities can be a poison to the human population. If there is no stopping to burning fossil fuels and no methods of decreasing the change. Then the climate will keep responding to the increase of the warm temperature and civilizations would change dramatically.2601:280:C301:1060:4809:BE3E:60A7:56B5 (talk) 21:25, 6 March 2017 (UTC)

While I think you've got it broadly right, this page is for detailed discussion of improvements to the article, on the basis of reliable published sources. Look on the bright side, the current changes are unlikely to be permanent: they'll probably unwind in a few thousand years, and CO₂ levels are very unlikely to get to the point of being poisonous. Though they will disrupt life essentials such as food, water supply, and dry land. However, wp:not a forum dave souza, talk 22:10, 6 March 2017 (UTC)

Although CO2 may not reach human-toxicity levels outright, there's active research into the possibility of turning the oceans anoxic, which may then outgas Hydrogen sulfide, leading to mass extinction of oxygen-breathing lifeforms (like us). Surprisingly, while the article mentions species extinction, it does not really touch on mass extinction, much less this H2S theory. Maybe we should incorporate it? See for example Global Warming Led To Atmospheric Hydrogen Sulfide And Permian Extinction in ScienceDaily. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 23:09, 6 March 2017 (UTC)

I don't think anyone is talking about the current climate changes turning the oceans anoxic. Plus the current extinctions have more to do about pressure from the human population than climate change, though climate change will also contribute to part of it. Where did you or the original poster get these apocalyptic ideas of the end of civilization and anoxic oceans from? What's happening is quite bad enough without exaggerating it. Dmcq (talk) 23:37, 6 March 2017 (UTC)

Dmcq, I'll grant that this isn't (yet) a solid bullet point in IPCC assessment reports. Most recently they said

"It is very likely that the dissolved oxygen content of the ocean will decrease by a few percent during the 21st century. CMIP5 models suggest that this decrease in dissolved oxygen will predominantly occur in the subsurface mid-latitude oceans, caused by enhanced stratification, reduced ventilation and warming. However, there is no consensus on the future development of the volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters in the open ocean because of large uncertainties in potential biogeochemical effects and in the evolution of tropical ocean dynamics. {6.4.5, Figure 6.30}did you read the link I provided from Science Daily?" AR5, WG1, Chapter 6, pg 469

On the other hand, regulars here all know that individual papers lead the IPCC assessment reports. For background at least, is "Suffocating the Ocean" by Moises Velasquez-Manoff and published by Pacific Standard. I'm not saying the eggheads are certain about this outcome, only that some are talking about it as remote but plausible.

NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 19:42, 7 March 2017 (UTC)

No acceleration in the rate of global warming during the industrial age has been detected

a result of the labours unfinished of Testew and Cunard
The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.
The tidal gauges show no acceleration in the rate of sea level rise which was reluctantly admitted by the IPCC https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/409.htm The lower troposphere satellite measurements actually show a decrease in the rate warming for the last 20 years compared to the previous 20 despite human co2 production doubling http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2017/february/022017_tlt_update_bar.png The only evidence of an increase in the rate of warming come from estimates such as the GISS which has laughable methodology I don't expect this to get in the article but there it is — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:100A:B127:6565:C1DF:EAD3:AD99:C354 (talk) 12:17, 14 March 2017 (UTC) If this article is to promote the catastrophic man made global warming theories then it should mostly be about "feedback loops" because that's where the vast majority of the theorized future warming is supposed to come from. The actual greenhouse effect of co2 is very small — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:100A:B127:6565:C1DF:EAD3:AD99:C354 (talk) 12:23, 14 March 2017 (UTC) I see the anti science editors have flagged my comments....but have not disputed any of it — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:100A:B127:6565:C1DF:EAD3:AD99:C354 (talk) 14:43, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

Meanwhile, elsewhere

In case you missed it: https://en.wikipedia.org/enwiki/w/index.php?title=Wikipedia:No_original_research/Noticeboard&diff=770351546&oldid=769648085 William M. Connolley (talk) 23:17, 14 March 2017 (UTC)

2016 1.1 deg C ref

16 of 17 in "warmest years" is more than a single pop fact over a single hot year. And 2016 seems to have varying temp reports, from the .99 on NASA CC to 1.1 here in this more recent RTE article.cite news|url=https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2017/0321/861284-record-global-average-temperature/ |title=2016 made history with a record global average temperature |publisher=RTE |date=March 21, 2017 |accessdate=March 22, 2017 B137 (talk) 06:32, 22 March 2017 (UTC)

This page is for discussing changes that might improve the article. Have you got a more specific suggestion thanks? Dmcq (talk) 11:17, 22 March 2017 (UTC)

Your chart

The temperature drop due to the Krakatoa eruption of 1883 is not reflected. Best guess is that the global temperature of that year dropped by about 1.5 C. That year was called "the year without a summer" as was another year in the early 1800's due to another volcanic eruption. Just making sure that when people look it up to confirm they get the right "year without a summer".

As the chart used in the article does not show a temperature drop of that magnitude, it is CRAP.

I have not checked but, if it does not show the impact of Krakatoa, it probably does not show the impact of other major volcanic eruptions since then.

My advise is that you get a better chart from competent sources.71.174.137.143 (talk) 05:31, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

Provide a source for that global average temperature fell by 1.5C. The figures in the article say that Summer average temperatures fell by up to> 1.2C in the Northern hemisphere. The eruptions of Krakatoa, Santa Maria, Agung, El Chicon and Pinatubo can all be seen in that record but the effects are more spread out in time over the world than you seem to think. Dmcq (talk) 08:28, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

If you are trying to imply that a "year without a summer" has the same average temperature as the years surrounding it, then I can only say that you need to stay away from this article as you have a bias. Besides which early temperature data has a wide plus or minus error of about 1 degree (which gets bigger the further back you go as instruments get more primitive). That CAN mean that the temperature of 100 plus years ago was on par or even higher then that of today based on instrument and recording errors. Additionally recent satellite data shows that the earth's temperature for the past 18 years has been stable to within a tenth of degree. That chart shows a spike at the end which does not exist. It is CRAP.

In short, that chart does not show the "year without a summer", it does not have error bars and it has a spike at the end that is not supported by ANY type of temperature data,

and repeating myself. The current chart is CRAP and you need to get rid of it or put in a disclaimer that it is CRAP. Find another from someone who can actually prepare a proper chart.71.174.137.143 (talk) 15:14, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

It is very obvious that Dmcq is not trying to imply that. You are applying the straw man fallacy.

Please consider that there is another hemisphere except the Northern one, and three other seasons except summer, making the Northern summer figure one of eight. Also, please consider that the Northern summer figure is probably the most extreme of the eight, otherwise another one would be used in its place. You fell for the availability heuristic and ignored that besides the figure you do know, there are other figures you do not know.

To make matters worse, you overlooked that the chart is labeled "Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index". According to 1883 eruption of Krakatoa, "average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by as much as 1.2 °C" (not 1.5). Are you sure that the scope is the same for both figures? Land and ocean?

Just provide a source for your claim of a global temperature change of 1.5°C for the whole year in land and ocean or stop bickering, OK? --Hob Gadling (talk) 15:59, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

Considering that there were no regular temperature records outside North America and Northern Europe at the time, do you want to really go and say that the rest of the world was unaffected by Krakatoa when there is minimal data either way? Europe and North America are the furthest areas of the planet from Krakatoa. Krakatoa was located in the SOUTHERN hemisphere and on the other side of the planet from both Europe and North America. It stands to reason that the closer you are to the eruption the greater the effects, at least on the short term. To even imply that the Southern hemisphere was not effected by Krakatoa, which is itself in the Southern hemisphere, is a dogshit argument.

this sentence in the intro

Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over tens to thousands of years.[6]

The last ice age ended about 10,000 BC so the statement that the observed changes over the past "tens" of thousands of years are unprecedented is garbage, or does anyone think that going from an ice age to a non-ice age period is NOT comparable to the piddling little change since 1950.

The LITTLE ice age that bottomed in the 1300's caused widespread famine across Europe and probably the world. Recent research shows that 1/3 of villages in northern Europe vanished, because everyone either starved to death or moved south. That also seems MORE of a change then the changes since 1950.

Lastly one of the many MINI ice ages bottomed in the late 1800's so of course there will be a warming period afterwards, and even with the CRAP chart you are using, there is not much difference between 1880 and 1950 and 1950 and today. If the current theory on Global Warming caused by CO2 emissions is true then there should be a much higher change since 1950. What we have here is a theory FAIL.

As a matter of fact, there are predictions that after hitting a top we may now be heading for another bottom to a mini ice age. This is based on sunspot activity as an indicator of solar activity now showing decreased solar energy, resulting in less sunlight and a cooler Earth.

If there is a temperature cycle then there is a bottom and a top. The following is what it looks like at a LITTLE Ice Age bottom, while today we may be at a top.

https://www.eh-resources.org/little-ice-age/

The Baltic Sea froze over, as did most of the rivers in Europe. Winters were bitterly cold and prolonged, reducing the growing season by several weeks. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and in some regions population decline.71.174.137.143 (talk) 06:03, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

The sentence is from the summary of the ~1000 page report, If you want to talk about that sentence, you'll need to refer to the details in the detailed report. If you want to continue with the bowel movement claim, you'll need to provide citations to what Wikipedia calls a WP:Reliable source. NewsAndEventsGuy (talk) 08:44, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

Agree about the citations. But they pointed out a real problem with the start of the article, people shouldn't be dismissed so quickly. Perhaps it should be rewritten so it is not misread so easily. It says 'tens to thousands of years' not 'tens of thousands of years'. Up to ten thousand years ago is 'thousands of years'. I think I'll go and change it to just say 'thousands of years'.

Yes there were some predictions about fifty years ago based on cycles that we might be headed to another ice age, but the science has firmed up quite a bit since, see History of climate change science and you'll see the how the basic science has been around since 1896. The changes are not piddling. Compared to the average temperature over the last two thousand years recent yearly global temperatures are further away from the mean than the worst of the little ice age was. People in air conditioned houses may not notice but high temperatures can kill as well and it is predicted to go up a lot more. Dmcq (talk) 09:14, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

The language from the citation does not even match the "tens of thousands of years" quoted in the article. Your own source does not match that line. It is therefore CRAP. Read the actual language which is part of the citation. Whoever put that language in the article needs to go back to school in order to learn to read.71.174.137.143 (talk) 15:25, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

High temperatures can kill has got to be one of the stupidest comments I have ever heard. By that quote people going to Florida for the winter go there to die. Same for those retirees who retire to Mexico because they can get a maid on a Social Security income.

Recent temperatures are likely LOWER or at least no different then those of 1000 years ago and 2000 years ago. Both periods saw commercial wine making in England. In modern times that has recently started up again. That activity was not possible in England during the LITTLE Ice age period of about 1300-1700's as grapes do not do well in the cold.71.174.137.143 (talk) 15:36, 30 March 2017 (UTC)

If you were able and willing to read what people write, you would be smarter. Try it.

For your benefit, I will repeat Dmcq's key sentence for you:

"It says 'tens to thousands of years' not 'tens of thousands of years'."

Now read the rest. Slowly and carefully. After that, would you please stop Dunning-Krugering? --Hob Gadling (talk) 16:07, 30 March 2017 (UTC)