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2017–2018 North Korea crisis

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North Korean missile crisis
Part of Korean conflict and post-armistice Korean War battles
DateAugust 2017-present
Location
Korean Peninsula
Sea of Japan
North Pacific Ocean
Status Ongoing
Belligerents

 North Korea

  • Alleged support:

 Syria
 Iran
 Cuba
 Venezuela

  • Alleged non-state supporters:
Hezbollah
Houthis
PFLP
ELN

 United States
 South Korea
 Japan

  • Support:
 United Kingdom
 France
 Australia
 Canada
Commanders and leaders
North Korea Kim Jong-un South Korea Moon Jae-in
United States Donald J. Trump
Japan Shinzō Abe

In 2017, North Korea rapidly improved its nuclear weapons capability, escalating tensions against the United States and its allies. North Korea successfully conducted a series of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests and began threatening to attack the territories of the U.S. and South Korea in retaliation to any military action against it. U.S. President Donald Trump said that military solutions are "locked and loaded" against North Korea.[1]

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton and former U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta stated that the standoff between the U.S. and North Korea over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program is comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis.[2][3]

Background

North Korea's nuclear weapons program

In his New Year’s Day speech, Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, claimed that his country is in the “last stage” of preparations to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).[4]

On May 3, North Korea issued a rare and harshly worded criticism of its chief ally, China, stating that "One must clearly understand that the D.P.R.K.'s line of access to nukes for the existence and development of the country can neither be changed nor shaken[...] And that the D.P.R.K. will never beg for the maintenance of friendship with China, risking its nuclear program which is as precious as its own life, no matter how valuable the friendship is... China should no longer try to test the limits of the D.P.R.K.'s patience[...] China had better ponder over the grave consequences to be entailed by its reckless act of chopping down the pillar of the D.P.R.K.-China relations." The harsh commentary also accused the Chinese media (which is tightly controlled by the government) of dancing to the tune of the U.S.[5]

In August 2017, the Washington Post reported on a confidential assessment carried out by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency which suggested that North Korea had successfully developed nuclear warheads for missiles that could reach the US mainland.[6]

USS Carl Vinson's movements

Following the April 7, 2017 U.S. missile strikes in Shayrat, Syria in response to the chemical attack,[7] tensions had mounted as President Trump weighed further military options against North Korea's ballistic missile program.[8] Trump said in an interview that he was sending a "powerful armada", consisting of the USS Carl Vinson supercarrier and its carrier strike group, to Korea.[9][10][11] In the second week of April 2017, global media outlets[8][12][13] erroneously reported that the USS Carl Vinson had been deployed to the Sea of Japan heading towards North Korea, as a result of confusion created by a "miscommunication" between the "Pentagon and the White House." A premature announcement on April 8 from the Navy led to a "glitch-ridden sequence of events".[14] On April 17, North Korea's deputy United Nations ambassador accused the United States of "turning the Korean peninsula into "the world's biggest hotspot" and the North Korean government stated "its readiness to declare war on the United States if North Korean forces were to be attacked."[15] In reality on April 18, the Carl Vinson and its escorts were 3,500 miles from Korea engaged in scheduled joint Royal Australian Navy exercises in the Indian Ocean.[14][16][17] On April 24 the Japanese destroyers Ashigara and Samidare participated with the USS Carl Vinson in tactical training drills near the Philippines; North Korea threatened to sink her with a single strike.[18] The Carl Vinson aircraft carrier had been in the South China Sea in 2015 and again in February 2017 on routine patrols.[19] In late April 2017, Trump stated that "[t]here is a chance that we [the United States] could end up having a major, major conflict with North Korea".[20]

Sanctions on North Korea

American university student Otto Warmbier was freed from North Korea in June 2017, while in a coma after nearly 18 months of captivity.[21] Warmbier died without regaining consciousness on June 19, 2017, six days after his return to the United States.[22] Some U.S. officials blamed North Korea for his death.[23] In July 2017, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson authorized a "Geographical Travel Restriction" which banned Americans from entering North Korea.[24]

On July 4, 2017, North Korea successfully conducted its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), named Hwasong-14.[25] It conducted another test on July 28.[26] On August 5, 2017, the UN unanimously imposed further sanctions on North Korea over its nuclear program. North Korea responded saying that it was a "violent violation of our sovereignty" and that it would make the US "pay the price for its crime... thousands of times".[27]

THAAD in South Korea

Against the North Korean missile threat, the United States Forces Korea (USFK) deployed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea. It faced strong oppositions from China, Russia, and North Korea.[28][29]

Timeline

Kim Jong-un's order for the first test of Hwasong-14

On August 8, 2017, President Donald Trump warned that North Korean nuclear threats "will be met with fire, fury and frankly power, the likes of which the world has never seen before" when it was reported that a US intelligence assessment found that the country had successfully produced a miniaturised nuclear warhead capable of fitting inside its missiles.[30] North Korea responded by announcing that it was considering attacking US military bases in the US territory of Guam.[31]

On August 10, 2017, North Korean Lt. Gen. Kim Rak-gyom responded to Trump's speech of "fire and fury", saying his words were "nonsense" and asserting that "reasonable dialogue" wasn't possible with Trump as president of the US. The North Korean governmental news agency KCNA reported that Kim Jong-un's military was considering a plan to fire four ICBMs, type Hwasong-12, into the Philippine Sea just 30–40 kilometres away from the island Guam. The flight time of missiles was estimated to be exactly 17 minutes and 45 seconds. A report by the KCNA suggested the plan would be put into operation in mid-August.[32] U.S. officials stated that Joseph Y. Yun, the US envoy for North Korea policy, and Pak Song-il, a senior North Korean diplomat at the country’s UN mission, were making regular contact during this dispute, through a conduit of communication they called the New York channel.[33]

On August 14, Ukraine's Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov denied that it had ever supplied defense technology to North Korea, responding to an article in the New York Times that said North Korea may have purchased rocket engines from Ukrainian factory Yuzhmash, who have also denied the report.[34]

On August 15, the North Korean leader said he was delaying a decision on firing missiles towards the US Pacific territory of Guam while he waits to see what Trump does next.[35]

On August 25, North Korea fired three missiles from Kangwon Province in the southeastern part of the country. According to Cmdr. Dave Benham of US Pacific Command, one of the missiles exploded on launch while the other two suffered critical failures in flight, splashing down in the Sea of Japan after flying a distance of 250 kilometers.[36]

On August 29, just before 6:00 AM JST, North Korea launched a missile which flew over Hokkaido, Japan. The missile reached an altitude of 550 km and flew a total distance of around 2,700 km before crashing into the Pacific. The missile was not shot down by the Japanese military. [37] This was the third time, with two prior events in 1998 and 2009, that a North Korean missile had passed over Japanese territory. However in both of those prior cases, North Korea claimed they were launching satellites.[38] The missile prompted activation of the J-Alert warning system in Tohoku and Hokkaido, advising people to seek shelter.[39][40]The launch was scheduled on the 107th anniversary of the Japan-Korea annexation treaty, and KCNA said that it was "a bold plan to make the cruel Japanese islanders insensible on bloody August 29". [41] An emergency UN Security Council meeting was called for later that day to discuss the event.[42] In a statement issued by the White House in response to the launch, US President Donald Trump said that "All options are on the table" regarding North Korea.[43]

On August 30, President Trump issued a statement via Twitter saying "The U.S. has been talking to North Korea and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!" [44]. However, when asked by reporters at a meeting with South Korean Defence Minister Song Young-Moo whether diplomacy was off the table, US Secretary of Defence James Mattis appeared to contradict the president by saying that "We're never out of diplomatic solutions" and "We always look for more. We're never complacent". [45]

On August 31, the US flew a squadron of bombers, including two nuclear-capable B-1B's and four F-35's, and conducted bombing drills in what US Pacific Command described as a "direct response to North Korea's intermediate range ballistic missile launch", referring to North Korea's IRBM launch on August 29. [46]

On September 1, President of Russia Vladimir Putin issued a statement on the Kremlin's website warning that the situation between the US and North Korea had deteriorated to a point in which it "balanced on the verge of a large-scale conflict". He also pushed for a diplomatic solution to the crisis and said that "it is essential to resolve the regions problems through direct dialogue involving all sides without advancing the preconditions (for such talks)". He continued by saying "In Russia’s opinion the calculation that it is possible to halt North Korea’s nuclear missile programs exclusively by putting pressure on Pyongyang is erroneous and futile". [47][48]

On September 3 at 3:31 AM UTC, the United States Geological Survey reported that it had detected a magnitude 6.3 earthquake in North Korea near the Punggye-ri test site. Given the shallow depth of the quake and its proximity to North Korea's primary nuclear weapons testing facility, experts concluded that the country had conducted a sixth nuclear weapon test.[49] North Korea claimed that they had tested a hydrogen bomb capable of being mounted on an ICBM.[50] The independent seismic monitoring agency NORSAR estimated that the blast had a yield of around 120 kilotons.[51] After a national security briefing with President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and several other senior military officials, US Secretary of Defence James Mattis stated that "Any threat to the United States or its territories, including Guam, or our allies will be met with a massive military response both effective and overwhelming". [52] In a series of statements made on Twitter, President Trump said that the US was considering "stopping all trade with any country doing business with North Korea". [53][54] He also said that "South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea won't work, they only understand one thing!".[55][56] An emergency session of the UN Security Council was called for the following Monday. [57][58]

Reactions

The reactions to the 2017 North Korea crisis include responses by political and religious leaders, media and the general public, within South Korea, Japan, the United States, and other nations, as well as by international organizations.

Directly involved states

 United States: President Donald Trump said he would unleash "fire and fury like the world has never seen" on North Korea and recommended that they should not "act unwisely". A White House spokesperson said the US has prepared in advance military options for "just about any crisis we may face in the world".[59]

  •  Guam: Governor Eddie Baza Calvo has endeavored to calm nerves and reassure the island’s 160,000 citizens that they’re safe. In a video address, he said, "There is no change in the threat level resulting from North Korea events" and that "there are several levels of defense, all strategically placed to protect our island and our nation."[60] While Guam's Homeland Security Advisor George Charfauros said "It's a 14-minute flight time if all the factors are successful and if it gets through all the US defense layers in place."[59]

 North Korea: North Korean officials said the US "would suffer a shameful defeat and final doom" if it "persists in extreme military adventure, sanctions and pressure," according to a statement on North Korean state media, KCNA. The statement went on to say that officials "vowed to mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs making desperate efforts to stifle" North Korea.[59]

 South Korea: President Moon Jae-in discussed the need for a "complete" overhaul of his country's armed forces as North Korea makes progress with its missile weapons capabilities. "I believe we might need a complete defense reform at the level of a rebirth instead of making some improvements or modifications," while at a meeting with military leaders.[61]

 Japan: Prime Minister Shinzō Abe has long argued for a tougher line on North Korea, pushing to strengthen Japan's military and antimissile defense as Abe and other senior officials have reiterated their support of the Trump strategy who is "putting all options on the table".[60]Also an official at the Ministry of Defense has said the country was deploying a US-supplied land-based missile interception system, known as a PAC-3, to four different locations, including three named by North Korean state media as under the flight path of the proposed strike at Guam.[59]

 China: Communist Party's General Secretary Xi Jinping called for restraint during a phone call with President Trump, following a dramatic exchange of threats between the United States and North Korea. Xi made clear in the call he was asking both sides to scale down the rhetoric and stressed the importance of diplomacy. The Foreign Ministry also said in a statement "At present, relevant parties should exercise restraint and avoid words and actions that would escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. An editorial in the Global Times said "when their actions jeopardize China's interests, China will respond with a firm hand and China should also make clear that if North Korea launches missiles that threaten U.S. soil first and the U.S. retaliates, China will stay neutral" and "If the U.S. and South Korea carry out strikes and try to overthrow the North Korean regime and change the political pattern of the Korean Peninsula, China will prevent them from doing so".[62][63]

 Russia: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said there had been an "overwhelming amount" of "belligerent rhetoric" from Washington and Pyongyang. "The side that is stronger and cleverer" will take the first step to defuse tensions, he said.[63]

Other states or entities

  •  Australia: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said that Australia would commit troops to fight if the North Korean regime launched an attack on the US by saying "America stands by its allies, including Australia of course, and we stand by the United States", and went on to say "so be very, very clear on that. If there's an attack on the US, the ANZUS Treaty would be invoked and Australia would come to the aid of the United States, as America would come to our aid if we were attacked".[64]
  •  France: President Emmanuel Macron issued a statement voicing his "concern at the ballistic and nuclear threat coming from North Korea," adding that the international community should work with Pyongyang to "resume the path of dialogue without conditions." and that other UN Security Council members want North Korea to "proceed with the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of its nuclear and ballistic programs."[65]
  •  Germany: Chancellor Angela Merkel implicitly criticized President Trump’s fiery comments on North Korea and called for the crisis over Pyongyang’s missile program to be resolved through diplomacy and when asked whether Germany would stand by the US in case of war, Merkel did not respond directly but said "I consider an escalation of rhetoric the wrong answer." And added "I do not see a military solution to this conflict," and suggested that the crisis should be resolved through the United Nations Security Council and cooperation between the US and regional powers like China, South Korea and Japan.[66]
  •  Ireland: "No immediate threat to Ireland amid US-North Korea nuclear tensions" said the former Foreign Affairs Minister and now Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan who added that "Ireland must nonetheless be aware that it is not immune to international conflicts."[67]
  •  Italy: Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni stated that he was very concerned about what was happening in Korea; he also added that "the answer of the Western world to North Korean provocations must be tough and firm", but he still hope that the crisis can be resolved with diplomacy or economic sanctions, without any military intervention.[68] Foreign Affairs Minister Angelino Alfano said that the escalation will probably have unforeseeable consequences for all the world.[69]
  •  Mongolia: President Khaltmaagiin Battulga special envoy Lundeg Purevsuren lashed out at Washington's sanctions on North Korea, saying "sanctions are not good, and we condemn them". He also said that the recent sanctions imposed on North Korea as well as Russia and Iran are not friendly, adding, “We don’t recognize the US sanctions because slapping sanctions are not a good way and we denounce them."[70]
  •  New Zealand: Foreign Minister Gerry Brownlee re-emphasized the need for a strong diplomatic response, saying any pre-emptive action would be a mistake in a statement. "Committing to an aggressive response now while encouraging all involved to avoid escalation is not a position we want to take."[71]
  •  Philippines: While the probability of a missile from North Korea hitting the Philippines is "remote," the military is on alert for any development, Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Spokesperson Brigadier General Restituto Padilla outlined.[72]
  •  Sweden: According to a diplomat, relations with North Korea remain mostly consular, and will have no role in finding a solution to the nuclear crisis. However, this is disputed by an inside source with knowledge on the depths of the Swedish-North Korean relationship. The unnamed Swedish source said "Generally, the North Koreans are very stringent. You can't just charge in and get what you want. You can't make demands of them. Sweden has been able to share information with the major players in the region and we are still doing that. We have mainly acted as a source of information and made sure that information reaches the most important actors."[73]
  •  Turkey: Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said "a showdown over nuclear weapons is not a children's game" and that "the countries should start acting reasonably as soon as possible".[74]
  •  Ukraine: Ukraine government said the suggestion that advanced rocket engine might have been sold to North Korea by corrupt staff or managers at the Yuzhmash missile factor in the city of Dnipro was ill-informed and probably Russian propaganda. "This information is not based on any grounds, provocative by its content, and most likely provoked by Russian secret services to cover their own crimes", said Chairman Oleksandr Turchynov of the Security and Defence Council. "Ukraine has always adhered to all its international commitments, therefore, Ukrainian defense and aerospace complex did not supply weapons and military technology to North Korea" the council said in a statement.[75]
  •  United Kingdom: The Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said Britain was working with the United States and allies in the region to find a diplomatic solution to the stand-off between Pyongyang and Washington and that "the North Korean regime is the cause of this problem and they must fix it." [76] And the First Secretary of State Damian Green has also added it is "obviously" in Britain’s interests that the stand-off between Washington and Pyongyang does not lead to conflict and urged Mr Trump to be "sensible" and go through the UN before acting on his "fire and fury" threat.[77] Several MPs have also made statements including, Jack Lopresti who has said Britain would be under an obligation to step in and defend its Nato ally by force if necessary if Kim Jong-un follows through on his threat to launch a missile strike and Chair of the Defence Select Committee Julian Lewis who warned that an attack would be seen as a modern-day Pearl Harbor and would trigger a ferocious response by the Americans.[78]
  •  Vatican City: Italian Archbishop Silvano Tomasi said "the way of conflict is always the wrong way," and "that’s why you need to invest time, energy, money, resources in preventing the necessity of arriving at these boiling points of crisis."[79]

International bodies

  •  European Union: A spokesperson for the Council of the EU has said "the EU has implemented all UN Security Council resolutions adopted in response to the DPRK’s nuclear and nuclear weapons, other weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs."[80]
    • High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission Federica Mogherini has added that the EU is maintaining a dialogue with South Korea who is playing a leading role and added "We believe that the solution to tensions on the peninsula lies in the peninsula itself and that Seoul has to have full ownership and leadership in the way forward, including through confidence-building measures." Seoul has extended an invitation to Pyongyang to initiate military to military dialogues and Mogherini said that “the EU is ready to support these efforts in all possible ways." The EU has a policy of critical engagement towards North Korea and its goals are to support a lasting diminution of tensions on the Korean peninsula and uphold the international non-proliferation regime. [81]
  • International Olympic Committee: An IOC spokesman has in a statement regarding the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang County "We are monitoring the situation on the Korean peninsula and the region very closely. The IOC is keeping itself informed about the developments. We continue working with the Organising Committee on the preparations of these Games which continue to be on track."[82]

See also

References

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