Growth of photovoltaics

Worldwide growth of photovoltaics Cumulative capacity in megawatts [MWp] grouped by region Split-up for 2016 estimated from IEA. 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017   Europe   Americas   Middle East and Africa   Asia-Pacific   China   Rest of the world   Global total: no split-up by region available yet. Recent and projected capacity (MWp) Year-end 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cumulative 100,504 138,856 178,391 229,300 306,500 401,500 Annual new 30,011 38,352 40,134 50,909 76,800 95,000 Cume growth 43% 38% 28% 29% 32% 31% Installed PV in watts per capita    none or unknown    0.1–10 watts    10–100 watts    100–200 watts    200–400 watts    400–600 watts Exponential growth on semi-log chart Grid parity for solar PV around the world   reached before 2014   reached after 2014   only for peak prices   predicted U.S. states

Worldwide growth of photovoltaics has been an exponential curve between 2007–2017. During this period of time, photovoltaics (PV), also known as solar PV, evolved from a niche market of small scale applications to a mainstream electricity source. When solar PV systems were first recognized as a promising renewable energy technology, programs, such as feed-in tariffs, were implemented by a number of governments in order to provide economic incentives for investments. For several years, growth was mainly driven by Japan and pioneering European countries. As a consequence, cost of solar declined significantly due to Experience curve effects like improvements in technology and economies of scale.

Experience curves describe that the price of a thing decreases with the sum-total ever produced. PV growth increased even more rapidly when production of solar cells and modules started to ramp up in the USA with their Million Solar Roofs project, and when renewables were added to China's 2011 five-year-plan for energy production. Since then, deployment of photovoltaics has gained momentum on a worldwide scale, particularly in Asia but also in North America and other regions, where solar PV by 2015–17 was increasingly competing with conventional energy sources as grid parity has already been reached in about 30 countries.

Projections for photovoltaic growth are difficult and burdened with many uncertainties. Official agencies, such as the International Energy Agency consistently increased their estimates over the years, but still fell short of actual deployment.

Historically, the United States was the leader of installed photovoltaics for many years, and its total capacity amounted to 77 megawatts in 1996—more than any other country in the world at the time. Then, Japan was the world's leader of produced solar electricity until 2005, when Germany took the lead and by 2016 had a capacity of over 40 gigawatts. However, in 2015, China became world's largest producer of photovoltaic power. China was expected to continue its rapid growth and to triple its PV capacity to 70 gigawatts by 2017.

By the end of 2016, cumulative photovoltaic capacity reached about 302 gigawatts (GW), estimated to be sufficient to supply between 1.3% and 1.8% of global electricity demand. Solar contributed 8%, 7.4% and 7.1% to the respective annual domestic consumption in Italy, Greece and Germany. Installed worldwide capacity was projected to more than double or even triple to more than 500 GW between 2016 and 2020. By 2050, solar power was anticipated to become the world's largest source of electricity, with solar photovoltaics and concentrated solar power contributing 16% and 11%, respectively. This would require PV capacity to grow to 4,600 GW, of which more than half was forecast to be deployed in China and India.

Current status

Nameplate capacity denotes the peak power output of power stations in unit watt prefixed as convenient, to e.g. kilowatt (kW), megawatt (MW) and gigawatt (GW). Depending on context, the stated peak power may be prior to a subsequent conversion to alternating current, e.g. for a single photovoltaic panel, or include this conversion and its loss for a grid connected photovoltaic power station.

At the utility level, wind power competes for new installations and has different characteristics, e.g. a higher capacity factor and about four times the 2015 electricity production compared to solar power. Compared with wind power, photovoltaic power production correlates well with power consumption for air-conditioning in warm countries, where it can replace peaker power plants. As of 2017 a handful of utilities have started combining PV installations with battery banks thus obtaining several hours of dispatchable generation, suitable to supply the duck curve after sunset.

For a complete history of deployment over the last two decades, also see section History of deployment.

Worldwide

In 2016, photovoltaic capacity increased by at least 75 GW, with a 50% growth year-on-year of new installations. Cumulative installed capacity reached at least 302 GW by the end of the year, sufficient to supply 1.8 percent of the world's total electricity consumption.

Cumulative PV capacity by region as of the end of 2014.

  Europe (49.4%)

  APAC (19.8%)

  China (15.9%)

  Americas (11.6%)

  MEA (1.0%)

  Rest of the World (2.3%)

Regions

In 2014, Asia was the fastest growing region, with more than 60% of global installations. China and Japan alone accounted for 20 GW or half of worldwide deployment. Europe continued to decline and installed 7 GW or 18% of the global PV market, three times less than in the record-year of 2011, when 22 GW had been installed. For the first time, North and South America combined accounted for at least as much as Europe, about 7.1 GW or about 18% of global total. This was due to the strong growth in the United States, supported by Canada, Chile and Mexico.

In terms of cumulative capacity, Europe was still the most developed region with 88 GW or half of the global total of 178 GW. Solar PV covered 3.5% and 7% of European electricity demand and peak electricity demand, respectively in 2014. The Asia-Pacific region (APAC) which includes countries such as Japan, India and Australia, followed second and accounted for about 20% percent of worldwide capacity. China was third with 16%, followed by the Americas with about 12%. Cumulative capacity in the MEA (Middle East and Africa) region and ROW (rest of the world) accounted for only about 3.3% of the global total. A great untapped potential remained for many of these countries, especially in the Sunbelt.

Countries

Main article: Solar power by country

Added PV capacity by country in 2014 (clustered by region)

  China (28.3%)

  Japan (25.1%)

  South Korea (2.3%)

  Thailand (1.2%)

  India (1.6%)

  Australia (2.4%)

  United States (16.0%)

  Canada (1.3%)

  Chile (0.9%)

  Germany (4.9%)

  Italy (1.0%)

  United Kingdom (5.9%)

  Rest of Europe (5.6%)

  South Africa (2.1%)

  Rest of the World (1.4%)

Worldwide growth of photovoltaics is extremely dynamic and varies strongly by country. The top installers of 2016 were China, the United States, and India. There are more than 24 countries around the world with a cumulative PV capacity of more than one gigawatt. Austria, Chile, and South Africa, all crossed the one gigawatt-mark in 2016. The available solar PV capacity in Honduras is now sufficient to supply 12.5% of the nation's electrical power while Italy, Germany and Greece can produce between 7% and 8% of their respective domestic electricity consumption.

Leading PV deployments in 2016 were China (34.5 GW), United States (14.7 GW), Japan (8.6 GW), India (4 GW), the United Kingdom (2 GW).

Installed Solar Power Capacity in 2016 (MW)

#	Country	Total Capacity	Added Capacity
1	China	78070	34540
2	Japan	42750	8600
3	Germany	41220	1520
4	United States	40300	14730
5	Italy	19279	373
6	United Kingdom	11630	1970
7	India	9010	3970
8	France	7130	559
9	Australia	5900	839
10	Spain	5490	55
11	South Korea	4350	850
12	Belgium	3422	170
13	Canada	2715	200
14	Thailand	2150	726
15	Netherlands	2100	525
16	Switzerland	1640	250
17	Chile	1610	746
18	South Africa	1450	536
19	Austria	1077	154
20	Israel	910	130
21	Philippines	900	756
22	Denmark	900	70
23	Turkey	832	584
24	Portugal	513	58
25	Mexico	320	150
27	Malaysia	286	54
28	Sweden	175	60
29	Norway	26.7	11
30	Finland	15	10

Installed Solar Power Capacity in 2015 (MW)

#	Country	Total Capacity	Added Capacity
–	European Union	94,570	7,230
1	China	43,530	15,150
2	Germany	39,700	1,450
3	Japan	34,410	11,000
4	United States	25,620	7,300
5	Italy	18,920	300
6	United Kingdom	8,780	3,510
7	France	6,580	879
8	Spain	5,400	56
9	Australia	5,070	935
10	India	5,050	2,000
11	South Korea	3,430	1,010
12	Belgium	3,250	95
13	Greece	2,613	10
14	Canada	2,500	600
15	Czech Republic	2,083	16
16	Netherlands	1,570	450
17	Thailand	1,420	121
18	Switzerland	1,360	300
19	Romania	1,325	102
20	South Africa	1,120	200
21	Bulgaria	1,021	1
22	Taiwan	1,010	400
23	Pakistan	1,000	600
24	Austria	937	150
25	Israel	881	200
26	Chile	848	446
27	Denmark	789	183
28	Slovakia	591	1
29	Portugal	454	63
30	Honduras	389	389
31	Algeria	300	270
32	Mexico	282	103
33	Turkey	266	208
34	Slovenia	257	1
35	Malaysia	231	63
36	Philippines	155	122
37	Hungary	138	60
38	Sweden	130	51
39	Luxembourg	125	15
40	Poland	87	57
41	Malta	73	19
42	Lithuania	73	5
43	Cyprus	70	5
44	Croatia	45	11
45	Finland	20	5
46	Norway	15	2
47	Estonia	4	4
48	Ireland	2	1
49	Latvia	2	0
World Total PV Capacity (2015)		256,000	59,000

Forecast

Forecast for 2017

In December 19, 2016, IHS Markit forecast that global new installations would reach 79 GW, representing 3% growth. In July 2017 the SolarPower Europe Association predicted 80.5 GW installed capacity (medium scenario) with a spread ranging from 58.5 GW (low scenario) to 103.6 GW (high scenario). In August 21, 2017, Greentech Media predicted that the global solar market will grow about 4% in 2017, reaching 81.1 GW, after 2016 saw a total of 77.8 GW. In September 14, 2017, EnergyTrend predicted the global solar market in 2017 will reach 100.4 GW, an increase about 26% over previous year.

Global short-term forecast

25

50

75

100

125

150

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Historical and projected global demand for solar PV (new installations, GW).
Source: GTM Research, Q2 2017

In August 2017, GTM Research predicted that by 2022 global photovoltaic capacity will likely reach 871 gigawatts.

Global long-term forecast (2050)

In 2014, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest edition of the Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy report, calling for clear, credible and consistent signals from policy makers. The IEA also acknowledged to have previously underestimated PV deployment and reassessed its short-term and long-term goals.

IEA report Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy (September 2014) —

Much has happened since our 2010 IEA technology roadmap for PV energy. PV has been deployed faster than anticipated and by 2020 will probably reach twice the level previously expected. Rapid deployment and falling costs have each been driving the other. This progress, together with other important changes in the energy landscape, notably concerning the status and progress of nuclear power and CCS, have led the IEA to reassess the role of solar PV in mitigating climate change. This updated roadmap envisions PV's share of global electricity rising up to 16% by 2050, compared with 11% in the 2010 roadmap.

IEA's long-term scenario for 2050 described how worldwide solar photovoltaics (PV) and concentrated solar thermal (CSP) capacity would reach 4,600 GW and 1,000 GW, respectively. In order to achieve IEA's projection, PV deployment of 124 GW and investments of $225 billion were required annually. This was about three and two times levels at that time, respectively. By 2050, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) generated by solar PV would cost between US 4¢ and 16¢ per kilowatt-hour (kWh), or by segment and on average, 5.6¢ per kWh for utility-scale power plants (range of 4¢ to 9.7¢), and 7.8¢ per kWh for solar rooftop systems (range of 4.9¢ to 15.9¢) These estimates were based on a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 8%. The report noted that when the WACC exceeds 9%, over half the LCOE of PV is made of financial expenditures, and that more optimistic assumptions of a lower WACC would therefore significantly reduce the LCOE of solar PV in the future. The IEA also emphasized that these new figures were not projections but rather scenarios they believe would occur if underlying economic, regulatory and political conditions played out.

In 2015, Fraunhofer ISE did a study commissioned by German renewable think tank Agora Energiewende and concluded that most scenarios fundamentally underestimate the role of solar power in future energy systems. Fraunhofer's study (see summary of its conclusions below) differed significantly from IEA's roadmap report on solar PV technology despite being published only a few months apart. The report foresaw worldwide installed PV capacity would reach as much as 30,700 GW by 2050. By then, Fraunhofer expected LCOE for utility-scale solar farms to reach €0.02 to €0.04 per kilowatt-hour, or about half of what the International Energy Agency had been projecting (4¢ to 9.7¢). Turnkey system costs would decrease by more than 50% to €436/kW_p from currently €995/kW_p. This is also noteworthy, as IEA's roadmap published significantly higher estimates of $1,400 to $3,300 per kW_p for eight major markets around the world (see table Typical PV system prices in 2013 below). However, the study agreed with IEA's roadmap report by emphasizing the importance of the cost of capital (WACC), which strongly depends on regulatory regimes and may even outweigh local advantages of higher solar insolation. In the study, a WACC of 5%, 7.5% and 10% was used to calculate the projected levelized cost of electricity for utility-scale solar PV in 18 different markets worldwide.

Fraunhofer ISE: Current and Future Cost of Photovoltaics. Long-term Scenarios for Market Development, System Prices and LCOE of Utility-Scale PV Systems. Study on behalf of Agora Energiewende (February 2015) —

1. Solar photovoltaics is already today a low-cost renewable energy technology. Cost of power from large scale photovoltaic installations in Germany fell from over 40 ct/kWh in 2005 to 9 cts/kWh in 2014. Even lower prices have been reported in sunnier regions of the world, since a major share of cost components is traded on global markets.
2. Solar power will soon be the cheapest form of electricity in many regions of the world. Even in conservative scenarios and assuming no major technological breakthroughs, an end to cost reduction is not in sight. Depending on annual sunshine, power cost of 4–6 cts/kWh are expected by 2025, reaching 2–4 ct/kWh by 2050 (conservative estimate).
3. Financial and regulatory environments will be key to reducing cost in the future. Cost of hardware sourced from global markets will decrease irrespective of local conditions. However, inadequate regulatory regimes may increase cost of power by up to 50 percent through higher cost of finance. This may even overcompensate the effect of better local solar resources.
4. Most scenarios fundamentally underestimate the role of solar power in future energy systems. Based on outdated cost estimates, most scenarios modeling future domestic, regional or global power systems foresee only a small contribution of solar power. The results of our analysis indicate that a fundamental review of cost-optimal power system pathways is necessary.

Regional forecasts

PV capacity growth in China

• China

As of October 2015, China planned to install 150 GW of solar power by 2020, an increase of 50 GW compared to the 2020-target announced in October 2014, when China planned to install 100 GW of solar power—along with 200 GW of wind, 350 GW of hydro and 58 GW of nuclear power.

Overall, China has consistently increased its annual and short term targets. However estimates, targets and actual deployment have differed substantially in the past: in 2013 and 2014, China was expected to continue to install 10 GW per year. In February 2014, China's NDRC upgraded its 2014 target from 10 GW to 14 GW (later adjusted to 13 GW) and ended up installing an estimated 10.6 GW due to shortcomings in the distributed PV sector.

• India

The country planned to install 100 GW capacity of solar power by 2022, a five-time increase from a previous target.

• Japan

Japan has a target of 53 GW of solar PV capacity by 2030, and 10% of total domestic primary energy demand met with solar PV by 2050.

• Europe

PV watts per capita in Europe for 2014 and 2015 (projection)

<0.1, n/a	0.1–1	1–10	10–50	50–100
100–150	150–200	200–300	300–450	>450

(also see animated map, 1992–2014)

By 2020, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) expected PV capacity to pass 150 GW. It found the EC-supervised national action plans for renewables (NREAP) were too conservative, as the goal of 84 GW of solar PV by 2020 had already been surpassed in 2014 – preliminary figures accounted for close to 88 GW by the end of 2014. For 2030, EPIA originally predicted solar PV would reach between 330 and 500 GW, supplying 10 to 15 percent of Europe's electricity demand. However, later reassessments were more pessimistic and foreacst a 7 to 11 percent share, if no major policy changes are undertaken.

History of leading countries

See also: Timeline of solar cells

Since the 1950s, when the first solar cells were commercially manufactured, there has been a succession of countries leading the world as the largest producer of electricity from solar photovoltaics. First it was the United States, then Japan, followed by Germany, and currently China.

United States (1954–1996)

The United States, inventor of modern solar PV, was the leader of installed capacity for many years. Based on preceding work by Swedish and German engineers, the American engineer Russell Ohl at Bell Labs patented the first modern solar cell in 1946. It was also there at Bell Labs where the first practical c-silicon cell was developed in 1954. Hoffman Electronics, the leading manufacturer of silicon solar cells in the 1950s and 1960s, improved on the cell's efficiency, produced solar radios, and equipped Vanguard I, the first solar powered satellite launched into orbit in 1958.

PV capacity of leading countries (MW)

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Year by year cumulative capacities of important markets
     UK        USA        Japan        China        Italy        Germany

In 1977 US-President Jimmy Carter installed solar hot water panels on the White House promoting solar energy and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, originally named Solar Energy Research Institute was established at Golden, Colorado. In the 1980s and early 1990s, most photovoltaic modules were used in stand-alone power systems or powered consumer products such as watches, calculators and toys, but from around 1995, industry efforts have focused increasingly on developing grid-connected rooftop PV systems and power stations. By 1996, solar PV capacity in the US amounted to 77 megawatts–more than any other country in the world at the time. Then, Japan moved ahead.

Japan (1997–2004)

Japan took the lead as the world's largest producer of PV electricity, after the city of Kobe was hit by the Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995. Kobe experienced severe power outages in the aftermath of the earthquake, and PV systems were then considered as a temporary supplier of power during such events, as the disruption of the electric grid paralyzed the entire infrastructure, including gas stations that depended on electricity to pump gasoline. Moreover, in December of that same year, an accident occurred at the multibillion-dollar experimental Monju Nuclear Power Plant. A sodium leak caused a major fire and forced a shutdown (classified as INES 1). There was massive public outrage when it was revealed that the semigovernmental agency in charge of Monju had tried to cover up the extent of the accident and resulting damage. Japan remained world leader in photovoltaics until 2004, when its capacity amounted to 1,132 megawatts. Then, focus on PV deployment shifted to Europe.

Germany (2005–2014)

In 2005, Germany took the lead from Japan. With the introduction of the Renewable Energy Act in 2000, feed-in tariffs were adopted as a policy mechanism. This policy established that renewables have priority on the grid, and that a fixed price must be paid for the produced electricity over a 20-year period, providing a guaranteed return on investment irrespective of actual market prices. As a consequence, a high level of investment security lead to a soaring number of new photovoltaic installations that peaked in 2011, while investment costs in renewable technologies were brought down considerably. In 2016 Germany's installed PV capacity was over the 40 GW mark.

China (2015–present)

China surpassed Germany's capacity by the end of 2015, becoming the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power. China's rapid PV growth continued in 2016 – with 34.2 GW of solar photovoltaics installed. The quickly lowering feed in tariff rates at the end of 2015 motivated many developers to secure tariff rates before mid-year 2016 – as they were anticipating further cuts (correctly so). During the course of the year, China announced its goal of installing 100 GW during the next Chinese Five Year Economic Plan (2016–2020). China expected to spend ¥1 trillion ($145B) on solar construction during that period. Much of China's PV capacity was built in the relatively less populated west of the country whereas the main centres of power consumption were in the east (such as Shanghai and Beijing). Due to lack of adequate power transmission lines to carry the power from the solar power plants, China had to curtail its PV generated power.

History of market development

Prices and costs (1977–present)

Swanson's law – the PV learning curve

Price decline of c-Si solar cells

Type of cell or module	Price per watt
High efficiency multi-Si cell (>18.4%)	$0.207
Taiwanese multi-Si	$0.192
Chinese multi-Si	$0.191
Mono-Si cell	$0.247
Module (multi-Si)	$0.361
Module (mono-Si)	$0.375
Source: EnergyTrend, price quotes, average prices, 22 May 2017

The average price per watt dropped drastically for solar cells in the decades leading up to 2017. While in 1977 prices for crystalline silicon cells were about $77 per watt, average spot prices in June 2014 were as low as $0.36 per watt or 200 times less than almost forty years ago. Prices for thin-film solar cells and for c-Si solar panels were around $.60 per watt. Module and cell prices declined even further after 2014 (see price quotes in table).

This price trend was seen as evidence supporting Swanson's law (an observation similar to the famous Moore's Law) that states that the per-watt cost of solar cells and panels fall by 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative photovoltaic production. A 2015 study showed price/kWh dropping by 10% per year since 1980, and predicted that solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030.

In its 2014 edition of the Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published prices for residential, commercial and utility-scale PV systems for eight major markets as of 2013 (see table below). However, DOE's SunShot Initiative report states lower prices than the IEA report, although both reports were published at the same time and referred to the same period. After 2014 prices fell further. For 2014, the SunShot Initiative modeled U.S. system prices to be in the range of $1.80 to $3.29 per watt. Other sources identified similar price ranges of $1.70 to $3.50 for the different market segments in the U.S. In the highly penetrated German market, prices for residential and small commercial rooftop systems of up to 100 kW declined to $1.36 per watt (€1.24/W) by the end of 2014. In 2015, Deutsche Bank estimated costs for small residential rooftop systems in the U.S. around $2.90 per watt. Costs for utility-scale systems in China and India were estimated as low as $1.00 per watt. As of May 2017, a residential 5 kW-system in Australia cost on average about AU$1.25, or US$0.93 per watt.

Typical PV system prices in 2013 in selected countries (USD)

USD/W	Australia	China	France	Germany	Italy	Japan	United Kingdom	United States
Residential	1.8	1.5	4.1	2.4	2.8	4.2	2.8	4.91
Commercial	1.7	1.4	2.7	1.8	1.9	3.6	2.4	4.51
Utility-scale	2.0	1.4	2.2	1.4	1.5	2.9	1.9	3.31
Source: IEA – Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy report, September 2014' 1U.S figures are lower in DOE's Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends

Technologies (1990–present)

Market-share of PV technologies since 1990

There were significant advances in conventional crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology in the years leading up to 2017. The falling cost of the polysilicon since 2009, that followed after a period of severe shortage (see below) of silicon feedstock, pressure increased on manufacturers of commercial thin-film PV technologies, including amorphous thin-film silicon (a-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), lead to the bankruptcy of several, once highly touted thin-film companies. The sector faced price competition from Chinese crystalline silicon cell and module manufacturers, and some companies together with their patents were sold below cost.

Global PV market by technology in 2013.

  CdTe (5.1%)

  a-Si (2.0%)

  CIGS (2.0%)

  mono-Si (36.0%)

  multi-Si (54.9%)

In 2013 thin-film technologies accounted for about 9 percent of worldwide deployment, while 91 percent was held by crystalline silicon (mono-Si and multi-Si). With 5 percent of the overall market, CdTe held more than half of the thin-film market, leaving 2 percent to each, CIGS and amorphous silicon.

• CIGS technology

Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) is the name of the semiconductor material on which the technology is based. One of the largest producers of CIGS photovoltaics in 2015 was the Japanese company Solar Frontier with a manufacturing capacity in the gigawatt-scale. Their CIS line technology included modules with conversion efficiencies of over 15%. The company profited from the booming Japanese market and attempted to expand its international business. However, several prominent manufacturers could not keep up with the advances in conventional crystalline silicon technology. The company Solyndra ceased all business activity and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2011, and Nanosolar, also a CIGS manufacturer, closed its doors in 2013. Although both companies produced CIGS solar cells, it has been pointed out, that the failure was not due to the technology but rather because of the companies themselves, using a flawed architecture, such as, for example, Solyndra's cylindrical substrates.

• CdTe technology

The U.S.-company First Solar, a leading manufacturer of CdTe, built several of the world's largest solar power stations, such as the Desert Sunlight Solar Farm and Topaz Solar Farm, both in the Californian desert with 550 MW capacity each, as well as the 102 MW_AC Nyngan Solar Plant in Australia (the largest PV power station in the Southern Hemisphere at the time) commissioned in mid-2015. The company was reported in 2013 to be successfully producing CdTe-panels with a steadily increasing efficiency and declining cost per watt. CdTe was the lowest energy payback time of all mass-produced PV technologies, and could be as short as eight months in favorable locations. The company Abound Solar, also a manufacturer of cadmium telluride modules, went bankrupt in 2012.

• a-Si technology

In 2012, ECD solar, once one of the world's leading manufacturer of amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology, filed for bankruptcy in Michigan, United States. Swiss OC Oerlikon divested its solar division that produced a-Si/μc-Si tandem cells to Tokyo Electron Limited. In 2014, the Japanese electronics and semiconductor company announced the closure of its micromorph technology development program. Other companies that left the amorphous silicon thin-film market include DuPont, BP, Flexcell, Inventux, Pramac, Schuco, Sencera, EPV Solar, NovaSolar (formerly OptiSolar) and Suntech Power that stopped manufacturing a-Si modules in 2010 to focus on crystalline silicon solar panels. In 2013, Suntech filed for bankruptcy in China.

Silicon shortage (2005–2008)

Polysilicon prices since 2004. As of October 2015, the ASP for polysilicon stands at $15.30/kg

In the early 2000s, prices for polysilicon, the raw material for conventional solar cells, were as low as $30 per kilogram and silicon manufacturers had no incentive to expand production.

However, there was a severe silicon shortage in 2005, when governmental programmes caused a 75% increase in the deployment of solar PV in Europe. In addition, the demand for silicon from semiconductor manufacturers was growing. Since the amount of silicon needed for semiconductors makes up a much smaller portion of production costs, semiconductor manufacturers were able to outbid solar companies for the available silicon in the market.

Initially, the incumbent polysilicon producers were slow to respond to rising demand for solar applications, because of their painful experience with over-investment in the past. Silicon prices sharply rose to about $80 per kilogram, and reached as much as $400/kg for long-term contracts and spot prices. In 2007, the constraints on silicon became so severe that the solar industry was forced to idle about a quarter of its cell and module manufacturing capacity—an estimated 777 MW of the then available production capacity. The shortage also provided silicon specialists with both the cash and an incentive to develop new technologies and several new producers entered the market. Early responses from the solar industry focused on improvements in the recycling of silicon. When this potential was exhausted, companies have been taking a harder look at alternatives to the conventional Siemens process.

As it takes about three years to build a new polysilicon plant, the shortage continued until 2008. Prices for conventional solar cells remained constant or even rose slightly during the period of silicon shortage from 2005 to 2008. This is notably seen as a "shoulder" that sticks out in the Swanson's PV-learning curve and it was feared that a prolonged shortage could delay solar power becoming competitive with conventional energy prices without subsidies.

In the meantime the solar industry lowered the number of grams-per-watt by reducing wafer thickness and kerf loss, increasing yields in each manufacturing step, reducing module loss, and raising panel efficiency. Finally, the ramp up of polysilicon production alleviated worldwide markets from the scarcity of silicon in 2009 and subsequently lead to an overcapacity with sharply declining prices in the photovoltaic industry for the following years.

Solar overcapacity (2009–2013)

Solar module production

utilization of production capacity in %

Utilization rate of solar PV module production capacity in % since 1993

As the polysilicon industry had started to build additional large production capacities during the shortage period, prices dropped as low as $15 per kilogram forcing some producers to suspend production or exit the sector. Prices for silicon stabilized around $20 per kilogram and the booming solar PV market helped to reduce the enormous global overcapacity from 2009 onwards. However, overcapacity in the PV industry continued to persist. In 2013, global record deployment of 38 GW (updated EPIA figure) was still much lower than China's annual production capacity of approximately 60 GW. Continued overcapacity was further reduced by significantly lowering solar module prices and, as a consequence, many manufacturers could no longer cover costs or remain competitive. As worldwide growth of PV deployment continued, the gap between overcapacity and global demand was expected in 2014 to close in the next few years.

IEA-PVPS published in 2014 historical data for the worldwide utilization of solar PV module production capacity that showed a slow return to normalization in manufacture in the years leading up to 2014. The utilization rate is the ratio of production capacities versus actual production output for a given year. A low of 49% was reached in 2007 and reflected the peak of the silicon shortage that idled a significant share of the module production capacity. As of 2013, the utilization rate had recovered somewhat and increased to 63%.

Anti-dumping duties (2012–present)

After anti-dumping petition were filed and investigations carried out, the United States imposed tariffs of 31 percent to 250 percent on solar products imported from China in 2012. A year later, the EU also imposed definitive anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on imports of solar panels from China at an average of 47.7 percent for a two-year time span.

Shortly thereafter, China, in turn, levied duties on U.S. polysilicon imports, the feedstock for the production of solar cells. In January 2014, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce set its anti-dumping tariff on U.S. polysilicon producers, such as Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation to 57%, while other major polysilicon producing companies, such as German Wacker Chemie and Korean OCI were much less affected. All this has caused much controversy between proponents and opponents and was subject of debate.

History of deployment

Deployment figures on a global, regional and nationwide scale are well documented since the early 1990s. While worldwide photovoltaic capacity grew continuously, deployment figures by country were much more dynamic, as they depended strongly on national policies. A number of organizations release comprehensive reports on PV deployment on a yearly basis. They include annual and cumulative deployed PV capacity, typically given in watt-peak, a break-down by markets, as well as in-depth analysis and forecasts about future trends.

Worldwide annual deployment

•   2017: 95,000 MW (23.7%)
•   2016: 76,600 MW (19.1%)
•   2015: 50,909 MW (12.7%)
•   2014: 40,134 MW (10.0%)
•   2013: 38,352 MW (9.6%)
•   2012: 30,011 MW (7.5%)
•   2011: 30,133 MW (7.5%)
•   2010: 17,151 MW (4.3%)
•   2009: 7,340 MW (1.8%)
•   2008: 6,661 MW (1.7%)
•   before: 9,183 MW (2.3%)

Annual PV deployment as a %-share of global total capacity (estimate/projection for 2016/17).

Due to the exponential nature of PV deployment, most of the overall capacity has been installed in the years leading up to 2017 (see pie-chart). Since the 1990s, each year has been a record-breaking year in terms of newly installed PV capacity, except for 2012. Contrary to some earlier predictions, early 2017 forecasts were that 85 gigawatts would be installed in 2017. Near end-of-year figures however raised estimates to 95 GW for 2017-installations.

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2002

2006

2010

2014

Global annual installed capacity since 2002, in megawatts (hover with mouse over bar).

  annual deployment since 2002     2016: 76.8 GW (estimate)    2017: 95 GW (projection)

Worldwide cumulative

Worldwide cumulative PV capacity on a semi log chart since 1992

Worldwide growth of solar PV capacity was an exponential curve between 1992 and 2017. Tables below show global cumulative nominal capacity by the end of each year in megawatts, and the year-to-year increase in percent. In 2014, global capacity was expected to grow by 33 percent from 139 to 185 GW. This corresponded to an exponential growth rate of 29 percent or about 2.4 years for current worldwide PV capacity to double. Exponential growth rate: P(t) = P₀e^rt, where P₀ is 139 GW, growth-rate r 0.29 (results in doubling time t of 2.4 years).

The following table contains data from four different sources. For 1992–1995: compiled figures of 16 main markets (see section All time PV installations by country), for 1996–1999: BP-Statistical Review of world energy (Historical Data Workbook) for 2000–2013: EPIA Global Outlook on Photovoltaics Report and for 2014: preliminary figures based on IEA-PVPS' snapshot report

1990s

Year	CapacityA MWp	Δ%B	Refs
1991	n.a.	–	C
1992	105	n.a.	C
1993	130	24%	C
1994	158	22%	C
1995	192	22%	C
1996	309	61%
1997	422	37%
1998	566	34%
1999	807	43%
2000	1,250	55%

2000s

Year	CapacityA MWp	Δ%B	Refs
2001	1,615	27%
2002	2,069	28%
2003	2,635	27%
2004	3,723	41%
2005	5,112	37%
2006	6,660	30%
2007	9,183	38%
2008	15,844	73%
2009	23,185	46%
2010	40,336	74%

2010s

Year	CapacityA MWp	Δ%B	Refs
2011	70,469	75%
2012	100,504	43%
2013	138,856	38%
2014	178,391	28%
2015	229,300	29%
2016	302,300	32%
2017	368,000	22%
2018
2019
2020

Legend:

^A Worldwide, cumulative nameplate capacity in megawatt-peak MW_p, (re-)calculated in DC power output.

^B annual increase of cumulative worldwide PV nameplate capacity in percent.

^C figures of 16 main markets, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, European countries, and the United States.

Deployment by country

Further information: History of photovoltaic growth and Solar power by country

See section Forecast for projected photovoltaic deployment in 2017

Grid parity for solar PV systems around the world
  Reached grid-parity before 2014
  Reached grid-parity after 2014
  Reached grid-parity only for peak prices
  U.S. states poised to reach grid-parity
Source: Deutsche Bank, as of February 2015

Number of countries with PV capacities in the gigawatt-scale

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005

2010

2015

Growing number of solar gigawatt-markets

  Countries above the 1-GW mark

• 2017
  2016
  2015
  2014
  2013
  2012
  2011
  2010
  2009
  2008
  2004

  Countries above the 10-GW mark

• 2017
  2016
  2013
  2011
  2010

  Countries above the 100-GW mark

• 2017

All time PV installations by country

Cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity (MW_p)

Country	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Algeria																							30	300
Australia	7.3	8.9	10.7	12.7	15.9	18.7	22.5	25.3	29.2	33.6	39.1	45.6	52.3	60.6	70.3	82.5	105	188	571	1377	2415	3226	4136	5109
Austria	0.6	0.8	1.1	1.4	1.7	2.2	2.9	3.7	4.9	6.1	10.3	16.8	21.1	24.0	25.6	28.7	32.4	52.6	95.5	187	363	626	766	935
Belgium																23.7	108	649	1067	2088	2722	3009	3074	3228
Brazil																				5	D17	D32	F54
Bulgaria																		5.7	35	141	1010	1020	1020	1021
Canada	1.0	1.1	1.5	1.9	2.6	3.4	4.5	5.8	7.2	8.8	10.0	11.8	13.9	16.8	20.5	25.8	32.7	94.6	281	558	766	1211	1710	2579
Chile																				C<1	C2	3	368	848
China									19	23.5	42	52	62	70	80	100	140	300	800	3300	6800	19720	28199	43530
Croatia																					0.2	20	34	45
Cyprus																		3.3	6.2	9	17	32	65	70
Czech																		463.3	1952	1959	2087	2175	2134	2083
Denmark		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.5	1.1	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.9	2.3	2.7	2.9	3.1	3.2	4.6	7.1	16.7	408	563	603	783
Estonia																		0.05	0.08	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	4.1
Finland																			0.1	1	11	11	11.2	14.7
France	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.9	4.4	6.1	7.6	9.1	11.3	13.9	17.2	21.1	26.0	33.0	36.5	74.5	179	369	1204	2974	4090	4733	5660	6589
Germany	2.9	4.3	5.6	6.7	10.3	16.5	21.9	30.2	89.4	207	324	473	1139	2072	2918	4195	6153	9959	17372	24858	32462	35766	38200	39763
Greece																		55	205	624	1536	2579	2595	2613
Guatemala																						n/a	F+6
Honduras																						n/a	F+5	389
Hungary																		0.65	1.75	4	12	35	78	137
India																			161	461	1205	2320	2936	5050
Ireland																	0.4	0.6	0.7	0.7	0.9	1.0	1.1	2.1
Israel													0.9	1.0	1.3	1.8	3.0	24.5	69.9	190	237	481	731	886
Italy	8.5	12.1	14.1	15.8	16.0	16.7	17.7	18.5	19.0	20.0	22.0	26.0	30.7	37.5	50.0	120	458	1181	3502	12809	16454	18074	18460	18924
Japan	19.0	24.3	31.2	43.4	59.6	91.3	133	209	330	453	637	860	1132	1422	1709	1919	2144	2627	3618	4914	6632	13599	23300	34151
Latvia																			0	0.2	0.2	0.2	1.5	1.5
Lithuania																		0.07	0.2	0.3	6.2	68	68	73
Luxembourg																		26.4	27.3	30	A30	A30	A45	125
Malaysia															5.5	7.0	8.8	11.1	12.6	13.5	35	73	160	231
Malta																		1.53	1.67	12	16	23	54	73
Mexico	5.4	7.1	8.8	9.2	10.0	11.0	12.0	12.9	13.9	G13.9	G13.9	G13.9	G15.9	G16.9	G17.9	G18.9	G19.9	G24.9	G38.9	G29.9	G34.9	G65.9	G114.1	G170.1
Netherlands		0.1	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.0	1.0	5.3	8.5	16.2	21.7	39.7	43.4	45.4	47.5	48.6	52.8	63.9	84.7	143	I365	I739	I1048	I1405
Norway											B6.4	B6.6	B6.9	B7.3	B7.7	B8.0	B8.3	B8.7	B9.1	B9.5	B10	B11	13	15.3
Pakistan																						?	400	1000
Peru																				0	D22	n/a	n/a
Philippines																						?	33	155
Poland																		1.38	1.75	3	7	7	24	87
Portugal	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.9	1.1	1.3	1.7	2.0	2.0	2.0	4.0	15	56	99	135	169	228	281	391	460
Romania																		0.64	1.94	4	51	1151	1219	1325
Slovakia																		0.19	148	508	523	524	533	591
Slovenia																		9.0	35	81	201	212	256	257
South Africa																				1	30	122	922	1120
South Korea	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	2.1	2.5	3.0	3.5	4.0	4.7	10.0	11.0	13.8	19.2	41.8	87.2	363	530	656	735	1030	1475	2384	3493
Spain			1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	2.0	2.0	4.0	7.0	12.0	23.0	48	145	693	H3421	H3438	H3859	H4322	H4603	H4766	H4872	H4921
Sweden	0.8	1.0	1.3	1.6	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.6	2.8	3.0	3.3	3.6	3.9	4.2	4.8	6.2	7.9	8.8	11	11	24	43	79	130
Switzerland	4.7	5.8	6.7	7.5	8.4	9.7	11.5	13.4	15.3	17.6	19.5	21.0	23.1	27.1	29.7	36.2	47.9	73.6	111	211	437	756	1076	1394
Taiwan																			32	102	206	376	776	1010
Thailand											2.9	4.2	10.8	23.9	30.5	32.5	33.4	43.2	49.2	243	388	824	1299	1420
Turkey							0.2	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.9	1.3	1.8	2.3	2.8	3.3	4.0	5.0	6	7	8.5	18	58	266
Ukraine																			3	191	326	616	n/a
UK	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.7	1.1	1.9	2.7	4.1	5.9	8.2	10.9	14.3	18.1	22.5	29.6	77	904	E1901	E3377	5104	8917
USA	43.5	50.3	57.8	66.8	76.5	88.2	100	117	139	168	212	275	376	479	624	831	1169	1256	2528	4383	7272	12079	18280	25600
References
Year	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Notes: ^A Strong discrepancy for Luxembourg: EPIA-figures report unchanged capacity of 30 MW for Y2011-2013 (source listed in row "References"), while Photovoltaic Barometer reports a capacity of 76.7 MW for Y2012 and 100 MW for Y2013. Table displays EPIA figures. ^B Strong discrepancy for Norway: Figures based on BP-Statistical Review of world energy and IEA-PVPS trend report| as EIPA outlook report mentions virtually zero deployment (as 0.02 watt per capita results in 0.07 MW). ^C Different data source for Chile, figures based on reports published by the Chilean Ministry of Energy—Centro de Energías Renovables (CER) and CORFO. Monthly reports revise figures retroactively. Distinction between solar PV and CSP is missing, however. ^D Figures for Brazil and Peru need to be checked, as sources are unclear. Peru's 22 MW reflects capacity of one solar farm opened in 2012 Historical data for these countries may be verifiable when new reports are released. ^E Displayed IEA-PVPS/EPIA figures for the United Kingdom differ significantly from those published by DECC. ^F Only fragmented figures for all Central American and some Latin American countries available. Based on public figures from GTM's Latin America PV Playbook ^G There's a strong discrepancy between the Trends 2014, Trends 2015 and Trends 2016 report. The cumulative capacity was revised downwards significantly for previous years in the 2016 report. ^H There's a discrepancy between Eur'Observ data IEA data where Eur'Observer reports about 10% less installed capacity. Eur'Observ data is used here. ^I There's a discrepancy between Eur'Observ and IEA. Eur'Observ data used here.

See also

• Growth of concentrated solar power (CSP)
• Solar power by country
• Timeline of solar cells
• List of renewable energy topics by country
• Wind power by country

External links

• IEA–International Energy Agency, Publications
• IEA–PVPS, IEA's Photovoltaic Power System Programme
• NREL–National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Publications
• FHI–ISE, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems
• APVI–Australian PV Institute
• EPIA–European Photovoltaic Industry Association
• SEIA–Solar Energy Industries Association
• CanSIA–Canadian Solar Industries Association
• Presentation on YouTube – Cost analysis of current PV production, PV learning curve – UNSW, Pierre Verlinden, Trina Solar
• Interview on YouTube – Michael Liebreich, "Cheapest Solar in World", about the record-low 5.84 US cents/kWh PPA in Dubai (2014)