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2018 Florida gubernatorial election

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Florida gubernatorial election, 2018

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Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent Governor

Rick Scott
Republican



The 2018 Florida gubernatorial election will be held on November 6, 2018, alongside a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections, and other state and local elections. Incumbent two-term Republican Governor Rick Scott is term-limited. Florida is one of 25 states that elects the Governor and Lieutenant Governor on a joint ticket.

The candidate filing deadline for this gubernatorial race is June 22, 2018, with primary elections being held on August 28, 2018. Florida uses a closed primary process, in which the selection of each party's candidates for a general election is limited to registered members of that party.[1]

Background

A Democratic candidate has not won a gubernatorial election in Florida since 1994 when Governor Lawton Chiles was elected to a second term.

The winner of this election will be involved in the redistricting process following the 2020 Census. Under Florida state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing boundaries for Congressional and state legislative seats. The governor has the power to veto U.S. House boundaries, but not state legislative ones.

Nearly 100,000 Puerto Ricans, a largely Democratic voter demographic, have moved to Florida after the island was ravaged by Hurricane Maria in September 2017. It is expected that this large influx of potential voters could drastically reshape future elections.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Individuals
Organizations
Jack Latvala (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives

Polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error David
Adams
Jeff
Atwater
Rick
Baker
Don
Baldauf
Pam
Bondi
Richard
Corcoran
Ron
DeSantis
Tim
Devine
Mike
Huckabee
Jack
Latvala
Bruce
Natham
Adam
Putnam
Will
Weatherford
Bob
White
Others Undecided
Florida Atlantic University 371 May 4–7, 2018 ± 5.0% 8% 1% 16% 5% 2% 15% 3% 8% 43%
1892 Polling (R-DeSantis) 800 April 19–23, 2018 ± 3.4% 7% 30% 23% 40%
30% 26% 44%
Gravis Marketing 752 February 26 – March 19, 2018 ± 2.1% 3% 19% 0% 17% 60%
Gravis Marketing 673 February 1–18, 2018 ± 2.2% 3% 16% 0% 18% 2% 61%
Mason-Dixon Polling 500 January 29 – February 1, 2018 ± 4.5% 7% 23% 27% 43%
Remington Research Group 1,423 December 30–31, 2017 ± 2.6% 3% 28% 25% 44%
Gravis Marketing 1,964 December 19–24, 2017 ± 1.3% 2% 12% 2% 23% 1% 60%
Saint Leo University[44] ?? November 19–24, 2017 ± ?% 2% 5% 2% 15% 2% 70%
Florida Chamber of Commerce 256 September 14–21, 2017 ± ?% 1% 9% 2% 26% 3% 59%
Florida Atlantic University ?? August 25–26, 2017 ± 7.0% 10% 9% 2% 27% 53%
Gravis Marketing 494 March 28–29, 2017 ± 2.6% 2% 5% 21% 63%
Associated Industries of Florida 800 February 14–17, 2017 ± 3.5% 4% 22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce ?? ~ December 20, 2016 ± ??% 22% 14% 64%
St. Leo University 501 November 27–30, 2016 ± 4.5% 5% 1% 2% 32% 6% 1% 7% 47%
StPetePolls.org[20] 1,835 August 2, 2016 ± 2.3% 7% 3% 26% 1% 37% 8% 1% 7% 12%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Andrew Gillum
U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Other individuals
Organizations
Gwen Graham
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Other individuals
Organizations
Chris King
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal officials
Organizations
Phil Levine
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal officials

Polling

Poll source Sample size Date(s) Margin of Error Andrew
Gillum
Gwen
Graham
Chris
King
Josue
Larose
Philip
Levine
Louis
McClanahan
John
Morgan*
Patrick
Murphy
Other(s) Undecided
Change Research (D-Gillum) 1,107 May 8–11, 2018 ± 3.0% 13% 13% 3% 20% 52%
Florida Atlantic University 372 May 4–7, 2018 ± 3.0% 6% 15% 10% 1% 16% 2% 8% 42%
Frederick Polls 750 April 23–28, 2018 ± 3.6% 6% 14% 2% 20% 14% 44%
Public Policy Polling 491 April 10–11, 2018 8% 23% 4% 29% 36%
Public Policy Polling 613 March 23–25, 2018 8% 19% 5% 22% 46%
Gravis Marketing 708 February 26 – March 19, 2018 ± 2.1% 11% 9% 2% 13% 64%
Gravis Marketing 633 February 1–18, 2018 ± 2.2% 9% 12% 2% 12% 1% 63%
Mason-Dixon Polling 500 January 29 – February 1, 2018 ± 4.5% 10% 20% 4% 17% 49%
Gravis Marketing 1,849 December 19–24, 2017 ± 1.3% 12% 18% 3% 6% 60%
Florida Chamber of Commerce 263 September 14–21, 2017 ± ?% 6% 16% 2% 4% 23% 4% 44%
Florida Atlantic University ?? August 25–26, 2017 ± 7.0% 9% 14% 4% 8% 19% 47%
  • –An asterisk denotes candidates that did not enter the race.

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew * Randy Wiseman, former Republican Chair of the Lake County School Board, Republican candidate for the State House in 2004 and candidate for Mayor of Mount Dora in 2013[139]

Constitution Party

Candidates

Withdrawn

Independents

Candidates

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

John Morgan (declined)

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[145] Tossup January 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[146] Tossup April 6, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[147] Tossup April 5, 2017

Polling

with Adam Putnam and Andrew Gillum
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 1,978 ± 2.2% 30% 30% 40%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 5,778 ± 1.3% 31% 31% 39%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 14–21, 2017 615 ± ?% 40% 33%
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 32% 31% 37%
with Adam Putnam and Gwen Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 36% 37% 27%
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 1,978 ± 2.2% 33% 29% 38%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 5,778 ± 1.3% 32% 32% 37%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 14–21, 2017 615 ± ?% 39% 37%
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 32% 34% 35%
Florida Chamber of Commerce ~ December 20, 2016 ??? ± ??% 39% 36% 25%
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 2016 3,250 ± 2.4% 34% 37% 30%
with Adam Putnam and Chris King
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Chris
King (D)
Undecided
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 14–21, 2017 615 ± ?% 40% 31%
with Adam Putnam and Philip Levine
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Adam
Putnam (R)
Philip
Levine (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 37% 41% 23%
Florida Chamber of Commerce September 14–21, 2017 615 ± ?% 40% 32%
with Ron DeSantis and Philip Levine
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Philip
Levine (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 37% 42% 22%
with Ron DeSantis and Gwen Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 36% 40% 24%
with Richard Corcoran and Andrew Gillum
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran (R)
Andrew
Gillum (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 26% 33% 42%
with Richard Corcoran and Gwen Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Richard
Corcoran (R)
Gwen
Graham (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 29% 34% 38%

See also

References

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