2006 United States House of Representatives elections

Template:Future election

Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3 2007 until January 3 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Summary

The House is currently composed of 230 Republicans, 201 Democrats and 1 Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats). There are three vacancies: New Jersey's 13th congressional district, Texas's 22nd congressional district and Florida's 16th congressional district. Republicans currently hold a 28 seat advantage, and Democrats would need to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995. Predictions based on historical trends suggest that there is a meaningful chance of such a swing.

This page is for swing districts and notable races. A complete list of the races in all districts (but without the commentary below) can be found at United States House elections, 2006 complete list.

Vulnerable incumbents and open seats

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district. Typically, competitive races are most likely to occur in those seats where the incumbent is retiring or has been personally affected by scandal, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.

There are currently 31 open seats: 28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election and 3 current vacancies. The vacancies are New Jersey's 13th congressional district, which will be filled at the same time as the general election with the winner taking office in November immediately after the votes are certified, and Texas's 22nd congressional district and Florida's 16th congressional district, which will not have special elections before election day. Of the 28 open seats, 18 are held by Republicans, 9 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. Of the currently vacant seats, NJ-13 was held by Democrat Bob Menendez, TX-22 was held by Republican Tom DeLay, and FL-16 was held by Republican Mark Foley. Also, two incumbents (Democrat Cynthia McKinney in Georgia's 4th congressional district and Republican Joe Schwarz in Michigan's 7th congressional district) were defeated in their party's respective primaries.

Predictions

(The following is from United State House elections, 2006 - predictions) Elections for the United States House of Representatives were held on November 7, 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. This article discusses predictions for outcome of House races as a whole. Individual races that were notable are discussed in detail (a paragraph or so, each) at United States House elections, 2006; that article also has information on the results of the election.

The predictions below were those made just before the election was held.

Summary of analyses

Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" — the race was not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" — the race was not competitive, but might become competitive if new political factors intervened.
"Leans" — the race was competitive, but one candidate had a clear advantage.
"Tossup" — neither candidate had a clear advantage.

Source	Safe Democratic	Democratic Favored	Leans Democratic	Tossup	Leans Republican	Republican Favored	Safe Republican
CQPolitics.com as of Nov 6	182 Democratic Seats	16 Democratic seats 1 Republican seat	5 Democratic seats 9 Republican seats	23 Republican seats	20 Republican seats	22 Republican seats	157 Republican seats
Cook Political Report as of Nov 6	182 Democratic Seats	13 Democratic seats	6 Democratic seats 5 Republican seats	1 Democratic seat 38 Republican seats	12 Republican seats	13 Republican seats	165 Republican seats
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball as of Nov 6 (← and → show trends)	193 Democratic seats	6 Democratic seats 1→ 3 Republican seats	4 Democratic seats 1→ 26 Republican seats ←5	(none)	31 Republican seats ←10 - 3→	10 Republican seats	162 Republican seats
Majority Watch (final) as of Oct 30	198 seats	24 seats	18 seats	2 seats	10 seats	6 seats	177 seats
Rothenberg Political Report (← and → show trends) as of Nov. 6	197 Democratic seats	1 Democratic seat 3 Republican seats	1 Democratic seats 6 Republican seats	3 Democratic seats ←3 37 Republican seats ←8 10→	3 Republican seats	8 Republican seats	166 Republican seats
Electoral-vote.com as of Nov. 6	203 Democratic seats 36 Republican seats			1 Republican seat	195 Republican seats
Ed Fitzgerald's survey of polls as of Nov. 6	227 seats			4 seats	204 seats

Market-based indicators

Tradesports

Tradesports offers a contract on the Republicans retaining control of the House. On Tuesday, November 7 at 09:31 PM GMT it was indicating a probability of 16.1% that the Republicans will retain the House.[5]

Iowa Electronic Markets

Iowa Electronic Markets offers four contracts covering all possible outcomes of the House and Senate elections.

As of 9:15 PM GMT, Tuesday, November 7, 2006, the two contracts predicting Republican control of the House were trading at $0.140-0.219 and $0.002-$0.010 respectively. Adding these values resulted in a probability of between 14.2% and 22.9% of Republicans retaining control of the House.[6]

Details of non-partisan election analyses

Because of the large number of individual races covered by nationwide political services, these analyses often were a week or two behind the results obtained by local polling organization, but are still very useful.

Cook Political Report

The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, listed 89 seats - 68 held by Republicans and 21 by Democrats - as being potentially in play.

As of November 6, 2006:

• 347 seats were Solid and therefore not considered competitive.
• 13 Republican seats were considered Likely Republican and 13 Democratic seats were considered Likely Democratic, meaning that while these races were not competitive at the moment, they could become competitive.
• 12 Republican seats were considered Lean Republican and 5 Democratic seats were considered Lean Democratic, as they were politically competitive, but one party had a distinct advantage.
• 5 Republican seats (the open seats being vacated by Bob Beauprez, Sherwood Boehlert, Jim Kolbe, Bob Ney and Jim Nussle) were considered Lean Democratic. No Democratic seats were considered Lean Republican.
• 38 Republican seats, and 1 Democratic seat, were considered Toss Up

CQPolitics.com

CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, at the end of November 6, 2006, made the following analysis:

• 339 seats were Safe and therefore not considered competitive.
• 22 Republican seats were considered Republican Favored and 16 Democratic seats were considered Democrat Favored, meaning that while these races were not competitive at the moment, they could become competitive.
• 20 Republican seats were considered Leans Republican and 5 Democratic seats were considered Leans Democratic, as they were politically competitive, yet one party has a distinct advantage.
• 23 Republican seats and no Democratic seats were rated as No Clear Favorite. They were: Ariz. 1 -- Renzi, Ariz. 5 -- Hayworth, Conn. 4 -- Shays, Conn. 5 -- Johnson, Fla. 13—vacated by Harris, Fla. 22—Shaw, Ill. 6 -- vacated by Hyde, Ind. 2 -- Chocola, Ind. 9 -- Sodrel, Minn. 6 -- vacated by Kennedy, N.C. 11—Taylor, N.H. 2 -- Bass, N.M. 1 -- Wilson, N.Y. 20—Sweeney, N.Y. 24—vacated by Boehlert, Ohio 1 -- Chabot, Ohio 2 -- Schmidt, Ohio 15—Pryce, Pa. 6 -- Gerlach, Pa. 8 -- Fitzpatrick, Wash. 8 -- Reichert, Wis. 8 -- vacated by Green, Wyo. AL—Cubin
• 8 Republican seats were rated as Leans Democratic:
  • Colorado's 7th congressional district (being vacated by Bob Beauprez in his run for governor)
  • Florida's 16th congressional district (formerly held by Mark Foley)
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district (held by John Hostettler)
  • Iowa's 1st congressional district (being vacated by Jim Nussle in his run for governor)
  • New York's 26th congressional district (held by Tom Reynolds)
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district (formerly held by Bob Ney)
  • Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district (held by Curt Weldon)
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district (held by Don Sherwood)
  • Texas's 22nd congressional district (formerly held by Tom DeLay)
• 1 Republican seat, Arizona's 8th congressional district (being vacated by Jim Kolbe), was rated Democrat Favored

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

In early August, Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of 12-15 seats in the House. In mid-October, he revised his estimate, predicting a net gain for the Democrats of 18-22 seats. On October 26, he revised his estimate to 21–26, November 2, he upped his estimate to 24–30, and on the day before the election, he raised it to 25-33 with the following breakdown:

• R Seats Likely R (10): CO-06 (Tancredo), FL-08 (Keller), FL-09 (OPEN), IN-03 (Souder), MI-07 (OPEN), MN-02 (Kline), NH-01 (Bradley), NY-03 (King), OH-12 (Tiberi), WV-02 (Capito)
• R Seats Leaning R (13): CA-04 (Doolittle), CA-50 (Bilbray), CO-05 (OPEN), IL-10 (Kirk), IA-02 (Leach), KY-02 (Lewis), NV-02 (OPEN), NJ-07 (Ferguson), NY-29 (Kuhl), NC-08 (Hayes), VA-10 (Wolf), TX-23 (Bonilla), WA-05 (McMorris)
• R Seats Toss-up, slight edge to R (17): AZ-01 (Renzi), KS-02 (Ryun), KY-03 (Northup), MN-01 (Gutknecht), MN-06 (OPEN), NE-03 (OPEN), NV-03 (Porter), NY-19 (Kelly), NY-25 (Walsh), NY-26 (Reynolds), OH-01 (Chabot), PA-04 (Hart), PA-08 (Fitzpatrick), VA-02 (Drake), WA-08 (Reichert), WI-08 (OPEN), WY-AL (Cubin)
• R Seats Toss-up, slight edge to D (18): AZ-05 (Hayworth), CA-11 (Pombo), CO-04 (Musgrave), CT-02 (Simmons), CT-04 (Shays), CT-05 (Johnson), FL-16 (OPEN), FL-22 (Shaw), ID-01 (OPEN), IL-06 (OPEN), IN-09 (Sodrel), KY-04 (Davis), NH-02 (Bass), NM-01 (Wilson), NY-20 (Sweeney), OH-02 (Schmidt), OH-15 (Pryce), TX-22 (OPEN)
• R Seats Leaning D (9): FL-13 (OPEN), IN-02 (Chocola), IA-01 (OPEN), NY-24 (OPEN), NC-11 (Taylor), OH-18 (OPEN), PA-06 (Gerlach), PA-07 (Weldon), PA-10 (Sherwood)
• R Seats Likely D (3): AZ-08 (OPEN), CO-07 (OPEN), IN-08 (Hostettler)
• D Seats Likely R (0): None
• D Seats Leaning R (0): None
• D Seats Toss Up, Slight edge to D (1): GA-12 (Barrow)
• D Seats Leaning D (3): GA-08 (Marshall), IL-08 (Bean), IA-03 (Boswell)
• D Seats Likely D (6): IN-07 (Carson), LA-03 (Melancon), OH-06 (OPEN), TX-17 (Edwards), VT-AL (OPEN), WV-01 (Mollohan)

Electoral-vote.com

Electoral-vote.com is a site run by Andrew Tanenbaum, a professor of computer science at Vrije Universiteit. While it mostly covered Senate races in 2006, it also made algorithmic predictions for the House-based entirely on independent polling data. (Where no independent polls exist, the 2004 election results were used).
As of November 2, Electoral-vote.com was predicting 38 Democratic pickups and no Republican pickups.
His calculations predict the House to comprise: 240 Democrats, 193 Republicans, 1 Ties. The Democratic pickups are: AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 CO-04 CO-07 CT-02 CT-04 CT-05 FL-13 FL-16 FL-22 IA-01 IL-06 IL-10 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KY-03 KY-04 NC-08 NC-11 NH-02 NM-01 NY-19 NY-20 NY-24 NY-25 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-15 OH-18 PA-06 PA-07 PA-08 PA-10 TX-22 WI-08

Pollster.com

"Mystery Pollster" Mark Blumenthal and University of Wisconsin–Madison Professor Charles Franklin aggregated polling data for more than 60 competitive house races and offered objective analysis on the methodology and the reliability of the numbers. On October 1, 2006, it began to post the most recent polls for these 60+ districts as soon as they were released to the public.

Majority Watch

Majority Watch is a non-partisan poll from RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics. Their polling is done by automated telephone surveys of likely voters.

Rothenberg Political Report

The Rothenberg Political Report is a non-partisan analysis of American politics and elections. Stuart Rothenberg is a regular columnist in Roll Call. On Nov 6 he predicted a Democratic gain of 30-36 seats, with the following breakdown:[7]

• Pure Toss Up - 19 Republican seats: CA 11 (Pombo, R), CT 2 (Simmons, R), CT 4 (Shays, R), FL 16 (Open; Foley, R), FL 22 (Shaw, R), IL 6 (Open; Hyde, R), KS 2 (Ryun, R), MN 1 (Gutknecht, R), MN 6 (Open; Kennedy, R), NM 1 (Wilson, R), NY 26 (Reynolds, R), OH 1 (Chabot, R), OH 2 (Schmidt, R), PA 4 (Hart, R), PA 6 (Gerlach, R), PA 8 (Fitzpatrick, R), TX 22 (Open; DeLay, R), VA 2 (Drake, R), WI 8 (Open; Green, R)
• Toss Up/Tilt Republican

• 10 Republican seats: - AZ 1 (Renzi, R), CA 4 (Doolittle, R), CO 4 (Musgrave, R), ID 1 (Open; Otter, R), KY 3 (Northup, R), KY 4 (Davis, R), NV 3 (Porter, R), NY 25 (Walsh, R), NY 29 (Kuhl, R), WA 8 (Reichert, R)

• Toss Up/Tilt Democratic

• 8 Republican Seats: AZ 5 (Hayworth, R), CT 5 (Johnson, R), FL 13 (Open; Harris, R), IN 9 (Sodrel, R), NH 2 (Bass, R), NY 20 (Sweeney, R), NY 24 (Open; Boehlert, R), NC 11 (Taylor, R)
• 3 Democratic Seats: GA 8 (Marshall, D), GA 12 (Barrow, D), IL 8 (Bean, D)

• Leans Republican - 3 Republican Seats: NJ 7 (Ferguson, R), OH 12 (Tiberi, R), TX 23 (Bonilla, R)
• Leans Democratic

• 6 Republican Seats: IA 1 (Open; Nussle, R), IN 2 (Chocola, R), OH 15 (Pryce, R), OH 18 (Open; Ney, R), PA 7 (Weldon, R), PA 10 (Sherwood, R)
• 1 Democratic Seat: IA 3 (Boswell, D)

• Republican Favored - 8 Republican Seats: CA 50 (Bilbray, R), CO 5 (Open; Hefley, R), KY 2 (Lewis, R), NE 3 (Open; Osborne, R), NV 2 (Open; Gibbons, R), NY 3 (King, R), NY 19 (Kelly, R), WY AL (Cubin, R)
• Democrat Favored

• 3 Republican Seats: AZ 8 (Open; Kolbe, R), CO 7 (Open; Beauprez, R), IN 8 (Hostettler, R)
• 1 Democratic Seat: VT A-L (Open; Sanders, D)

politicalforecasting.com

At politicalforecasting.com [8], predictions for the 2006 House of Representatives elections were categorized by method (e.g., statistical models, prediction markets) and averaged within and across methods to arrive at the Pollyseat, the number of seats the Republicans are expected to lose on November 7. As of October 30, the Pollyseat value stood at 21. In other words, the Republicans were expected to lose control of the House of Representatives.

unfutz: Ed Fitzgerald's survey of polls

Ed Fitzgerald, at his blog, unfutz, compiled a summary of several dozen forecasters, with statistics and charts.

Polling map - November 6, 2006

The map below shows the latest polling information as of November 6, 2006, for House races. No party polls included. Darker colors indicate stronger support. Where no polls were available, last year's election results were used. If two polls tied for most recent, the longer poll was used.

State statuses, swing districts and notable races

Alabama

None of Alabama's seven congressional districts are being seriously contested. Both of the delegation's two Democrats are unopposed, and all five of its Republicans have lesser-known opponents. Spencer Bachus is only facing token third party opposition, for example.

Alaska

The Alaska race is not expected to be competitive, as its only member of Congress, Don Young (R) is a favorite to win, having served since 1973 with little opposition in recent years. However, the astonishing unpopularity of Republican Governor Frank Murkowski, who lost his bid for re-election in the primary, along with the gubernatorial candidacy of former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles, could weigh in on Republicans in this state.

Young's Democratic challenger in the Nov. 7 election is Diane Benson. [9]

Arizona

Arizona has been leaning towards the Republican Party in recent elections. One potential factor in Arizona elections could be the re-election of popular Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano, who is facing off against Len Munsil, who beat Republican businessman Don Goldwater in the September 12th primary. A strong turnout for Napolitano could result in several close races for incumbent Republicans. Two Republican seats will gain the most attention in Arizona's congressional delegation. In one seat, an incumbent will be facing a strong challenge in 2006, while another is retiring and leaving the race wide open for both Republicans and Democrats.

• Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi is well-known for his strongly conservative positions in a competitive district. In 2002, the two-term Republican was re-elected with only 49% of the vote and a margin of just 6,000 votes. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a shouting match with moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, something Renzi strongly opposes. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, something that his Democratic opponent and other Democrats have argued he should do. At one point, Renzi appeared to have an easy race for his third term when Democrat Jack Jackson Jr., a Native American former state representative, dropped his challenge. Democrats then drafted civil rights attorney Ellen Simon, who won the Democratic primary. Despite entering the race in May, Simon has able to raise $821,595 as of August 23. However, she still trails Renzi significantly in cash on hand, having spent all but $334,564 in comparison to the $765,386 Renzi still holds. According to an October 26th Majority-Watch poll, Renzi leads Simon 48% to 46% [10]. In mid-August CQPolitics changed their rating of this race from Safe Republican to Leans Republican. Cook Political Report rating: Safe Republican.

• Arizona's 5th congressional district— Incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) appeared on his way to an easy reelection this election cycle, but that has changed. Democrats have a locally well-known candidate in State Senator Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe. Mitchell has been a political force in his home town, one of the largest communities in the district, and Democrats are enthusiastic about his candidacy. The district Hayworth represents leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly. Republicans are concerned, but point out that Mitchell has gotten off to a late start and that Hayworth will be well-funded. Mitchell has nearly $700,000 on hand. The district, in addition to Tempe, also includes Scottsdale, the prime real estate of the Phoenix area. An November 2nd SurveyUSA poll shows Mitchell has taken the lead 48% to 46% [11]. Cook Political Report rating: Leans Republican.

• Arizona's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006. His district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson, is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for two decades, often by wide margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a socially conservative stronghold. The Democratic primary in September was won by former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords, who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1, 2005 in preparation for the campaign. Randy Graf, a former state Representative who lost to Kolbe in the 2004 primary, won the September 2006 Republican primary. He defeated current state Representative Steve Huffman, whom both Kolbe and the National Republican Congressional Committee supported. The NRCC reportedly is concerned that Graf (a supporter of the Minuteman Project, and a sponsor of an unsuccessful bill that would let patrons carry guns into bars and restaurants), is too conservative to win the district. The NRCC committed $122,000 for a television ad in support of Huffman, which ran the week before the primary. The Democratic party shared that assessment -- prior to the primary, it spent nearly $200,000, "a large part of that for advertisements critical of Mr. Huffman in an effort to help Mr. Graf's candidacy." In late September, the national GOP canceled about $1 million in advertising support. Also running is Libertarian David Nolan. (For details, see Arizona 8th congressional district election, 2006.) In Mid-September, Cook Political Report changed their rating from Republican Toss Up to Leans Democratic. In October, CQPolitics changed their rating from No Clear Favorite to Democrat Favored.

Arkansas

The state of Arkansas is often considered to be different from the rest of the South politically, as the Democratic Party maintains super-majority status in the Arkansas General Assembly, and was once governed by Bill Clinton, who later became President. However, the state is generally considered conservative, although more moderate in contrast to the rest of the South. The first and fourth districts are solidly Democratic while the third district (located in rapidly-growing northwest Arkansas) is solidly Republican.

• Arkansas's 2nd congressional district- Incumbent Vic Snyder (D) was re-elected with 58% of the vote in 2004. Snyder's liberal voting record has become a target for businessman Andy Mayberry, the Republican candidate in 2006. Mayberry has indicated that Snyder's votes aligned him more often with the American Civil Liberties Union than did Senator John Kerry's. Snyder's most notable vote was for being one of only two members of the entire House to vote against prosecuting Saddam Hussein, the other being libertarian Republican Ron Paul of Texas. However, the district's Democratic strength could make this race challenging for Mayberry and Snyder has always won reelection by comfortable margins or better. A September 21 poll by SurveyUSA gives Snyder a 56% to 42% lead. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

California

California's political landscape has changed in the last decade from that of a Republican stronghold that sent Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan to the White House to one increasingly in favor of the Democratic Party as the state voted for Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry in strong numbers. The current Governor, actor and bodybuilder Arnold Schwarzenegger, is a moderate Republican, but has faced controversy during his term on a number of issues. However, Schwarzenegger's popularity has started to recover, and is becoming a stronger candidate for re-election. Still, California has a number of congressional races of note, ranging from two hotly contested seats currently held by Republicans with ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff, to a re-match of a June 2006 primary campaign to fill the seat of disgraced ex-congressman Duke Cunningham. Recent immigration issues have also come into play given California's location next to the border with Mexico.

• California's 4th congressional district— Although this Northern California district has generally been considered a safe seat for Republicans, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has singled out the race as being potentially in play, given Republican incumbent John Doolittle’s association with congressional corruption scandals, including ties to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes. Doolittle received less than 42% of the total votes cast in the June 2006 primaries, despite taking 67% of the Republican Primary. Democratic nominee Charles Brown, Lt. Colonel, USAF Retired, is running against Doolittle in the general election. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Doolittle leading Brown 49% to 46% [12]. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• California's 11th congressional district— Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. Pombo has been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election. In 2006, McNerney was challenged in the primary by Steve Filson. Filson was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee but was surprisingly defeated by McNerney in the primary. Pombo was challenged for the Republican nomination by former Representative Pete McCloskey. Pombo won 63% of the primary vote to 32% for McCloskey. McCloskey has now endorsed McNerney. The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley, includes portions of the San Francisco Bay Area, and leans Republican. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has McNerney leading Pombo 48% to 46% [13]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican. On October 3, CQPolitics changed their rating from Republican Favored to Leans Republican. See more info at California 11th congressional district election, 2006.

• California's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents the agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy, a former aide to Thomas, is the GOP nominee and is very popular in the Central Valley. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• California's 41st congressional district— Incumbent Republican Jerry Lewis (R) is under investigation for his connections to the Copeland Lowery lobbying firm. If the scandal heats up by election day, this long-time incumbent could face serious problems. But Lewis faces an unknown Democrat opponent, Louie Contreras, in the November general election; if there are no significant developments in the ongoing FBI investigation, then he will win easily. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• California's 50th congressional district—The winner of the special election on June 6, 2006 was former Congressman Brian Bilbray. He was challenged by Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby, who appeared to have pulled ahead during the campaign. However, in the final week of the election, she was overheard implying that she was encouraging illegal aliens to vote. The Bilbray campaign broadcast that remark throughout the district. Republicans invested five million dollars in the race, and Democrats two million, and Bilbray won the election by a 5% margin. This was seen as Busby's best chance as Bilbray has the advantages of incumbency, and took a solid lead in the polling for November. However, Busby gained in October (a late October poll by SurveyUSA showed Busby trailing by just 3 points) for a number of reasons: the general political climate seen as disadvantageous to the GOP, Busby's outraising Bilbray, and Bilbray's low profile campaign.Cook Political Report rating: Leans Republican. On Oct. 23, CQPolitics changed their rating from Republican Favored to Leans Republican

Colorado

In recent years, Republicans and Democrats have made alternating gains within this state, which is increasingly becoming a key swing state in presidential elections. In 2004, Democrats made gains within the state, gaining a House seat and Senate seat, both held by brothers John and Ken Salazar, respectively. The 2006 election is looking very favorable to Colorado Democrats, Bill Ritter has a double-digit lead over Bob Beauprez for governor. Colorado boasts some of the most competitive congressional districts in the nation: of the seven, four are very competitive (three held by Republicans and one held by a Democrat). The 7th District, being vacated by Beauprez is very likely to switch parties as Ed Perlmutter leads in the newest polls. The outcome of the four competitive races could be affected by the "coat-tail" effect with a strong win for Ritter and the turnout of Republicans turned off by their own candidates such as in the 5th district. The outcome of the 2006 election could also become an indicator in the future of conservative U.S. Senator Wayne Allard, whose seat is up for election in 2008 and will likely face popular Democrat Mark Udall.

• Colorado's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (narrowly won by President Bush) district nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Republican businessman Scott Tipton will face Salazar in November. Salazar now has the advanges of incumbency and the political winds seem to point towards his re-election. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Democrat Favored. [14]

• Colorado's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R), a very conservative Republican who was one of the leading proponents of the Federal Marriage Amendment and won a surprisingly close 51% to 44% reelection in 2004 despite the Republican-leaning nature of her eastern Colorado district. Her district consists of all of Eastern Colorado well east of Denver, and northeastern Colorado around Fort Collins and Loveland. Her Democratic opponent is state Representative Angie Paccione; former Reagan appointee Eric Eidsness has entered the race as a Reform Party candidate. A months ago this race was much further apart but the Paccione campaign has really picked up recently and this race will likely be close. A Mason-Dixon poll released on Oct 10 showed 46-36% lead for Musgrave. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican. At the end of September, CQPolitics, citing "continued debate over Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s staunch social-issues conservatism, and the emergence of Democratic state Rep. Angie Paccione as a solid challenger" changed their rating from Republican Favored to Leans Republican.

• Colorado's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Joel Hefley (R), the dean of the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives, announced on February 16, 2006 that he will be retiring from his seat and not seeking an 11th term. This district has a very strong Republican tilt, so strong that it has not elected a Democrat to represent it since its creation in 1972. State Senator Doug Lamborn, the most conservative of the Republicans in the race, narrowly defeated former Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce executive Jeff Crank, a former aide to Hefley, in the six-way primary in August after a campaign with many charges and countercharges. Hefley, however, citing Lamborn's negative campaign, refused to endorse him. Lamborn will face Democrat Jay Fawcett, a 20-year U.S. Air Force Veteran who fought in the Gulf War. An October 27th Mason-Dixon poll has Lamborn leading Fawcett 47% to 40% [15]. CQPolitics Report rating: Republican Favored.

• Colorado's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has taken stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be Bill Winter a Veteran of both the Navy and Marine Corps. Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes because he represents a solidly Republican district that gave President Bush his highest vote total in the state, but he has alienated much of the Republican leadership by harshly criticizing the president's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House, where Rove told Tancredo not to "darken the doorstep of the White House".[16] Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he would run to succeed Allard [17]. CQPolitics Report rating: Safe Republican.

• Colorado's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Beauprez (R) was reelected to a second term in 2004 with 55% of the vote, after winning his first term by only 121 votes. His retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat highly competitive. The 7th District is located in the western Denver suburbs and was narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell was unopposed for the Republican nomination; State Senator Ed Perlmutter won the Democratic primary. Dave Chandler, a Green, is also a candidate. In late September, O'Donnell was put on the defensive when ads appeared noting that he had previously supported abolishing Social Security." A Survey USA poll soon after that showed Perlmutter with a 54 to 37 percent lead, although GOP consultants guessed that the support was "soft." An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Perlmutter leading O'Donnell 51% to 46% [18]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: Leans Democratic.[19]

Connecticut

Connecticut's increasingly liberal, and largely independent, voting populace has made the Constitution State one of the most competitive battlegrounds in the 2006 election. Incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell is one of the most popular Governors in the country, and is seeking re-election. Democrats in the state are also split at the polls following the primary between Senator Joe Lieberman and businessman Ned Lamont. Following his defeat to the liberal, anti-war Lamont, the conservative, pro-war Lieberman has decided to chart his own course as an independent. (See Connecticut United States Senate election, 2006.) With President Bush highly unpopular in New England, its three Republican congressmen are in danger of losing their seats to Democrats.

• Connecticut's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) a Vietnam War veteran and former CIA agent, won reelection by 54% to 46% in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. The 2002 nominee, former state Representative Joe Courtney lacks military experience but is planning another run. Simmons received great credit for saving the New London submarine base from closure in the BRAC process, is closely aligned with fellow Vietnam War veteran John McCain, and made no political mistakes of note, but Bush is highly unpopular in New England, which should help Courtney, who has close to a million dollars on hand. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Courtney leading Simmons 51% to 45% [20]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: Lean Republican.

• Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-trending district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. Westport former Selectwoman Diane Farrell, the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again and is well-funded. Shays's problem now is almost exclusively centered on his support for the Iraq War, as he is mostly liberal on domestic issues. Shays' endorsement of Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman struck many as signs of worry on his part, but now may seem prescient. Shays can't be attacked as a knee-jerk conservative, but local unpopularity of both George W. Bush and the Iraq War are helping Farrell's campaign. Robocalls by groups thought to support Farrell were made in the district during July falsely claiming Shays supported President Bush's opposition to stem cell research; one local newspaper called the phone campaign "despicable". In late August the Hartford Courant reported that Shays and Farrell's position on Iraq had seemed to converge and one Courant columnist reported that Farrell had appeared to support the positions taken by Joe Lieberman on the war. Farrell has nearly $1.4 million cash on hand. Majority-Watch's October 26th poll has Shays ahead of Farrell 52% to 43% with 6% undecided [21]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. In Mid-August CQPolitics changed their rating of this race from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite. See more info at Connecticut 4th congressional district election, 2006.

• Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Although incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge (running against a fellow incumbent in a redrawn district) in 2002, winning with just 54%, she is still a Republican in a swing district. While the 5th is Connecticut's most conservative region, John Kerry won the district by about 1100 votes in 2004 and Al Gore won it when Johnson represented it as the 6th District in 2000. Johnson faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy. She is popular in the district, but with Bush's rating in New England at rock bottom, a Democratic victory is possible. In fact, in a slightly more Democratic district and with a weak Republican presidential candidate, Bob Dole, leading the ticket, Johnson very nearly lost in 1996. Johnson is a prodigious fundraiser, and added $867,000 to her coffers in April-June 2006, raising her cash on hand to over $2.6 million. Murphy has had to defend his record of supporting tax increases in the Connecticut legislature. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Murphy leading Johnson 51% to 43% [22]. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

Delaware

Main article: Delaware congressional election, 2006

The race in Delaware involves three party contenders (Democrat, Republican and Green) and one Independent. Delaware's only congressman, Republican Michael N. Castle, is expected to cruise to victory and serve an eighth term in Congress. He is the President of The Republican Main Street Partnership. Castle suffered two minor strokes on September 23 but according to his doctors is expected to make a full recovery.

Florida

Main article: Florida U.S. House election, 2006

Florida is known to be a moderate-to-conservative state, with more liberals residing in South Florida, and moderates and conservatives dominating both the northern and central regions of Florida, as well as a strong Republican base in Cuban-American portions of Miami. A former Florida Secretary of State made famous in the 2000 presidential election is challenging incumbent Senator Bill Nelson, running well behind in the polls, and leaving a mostly Republican district open. Democrats have set their sights on three districts in the Tampa area, one of which is being vacated by their gubernatorial candidate in Florida, and also on a South Florida district held by one of the Sunshine State's longest-serving congressmen. The primary was held on September 5, 2006. Republicans hope the popularity of outgoing Governor Jeb Bush will aid their gubernatorial candidate, Attorney General Charlie Crist and help downballot.

• Florida's 8th congressional district- Incumbent Ric Keller (R) is known in Congress for his Cheeseburger Bill that passed without his vote because of his hospitalization for a cardiac arrhythmia in 2005. Keller has been reelected with little trouble in the past. This year he faces a respectable opponent in marketing consultant Charlie Stuart, a Central Florida native and member of a prominent Orlando family who was touted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as a top longshot candidate. Stuart has received the backing of local figures such as Congressman Allen Boyd, ex-Orlando mayors Glenda Hood and Bill Frederick and present Orlando mayor Buddy Dyer, as well as national ones such as former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. Still, Keller's district votes Republican and is dominated by Orlando. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• Florida's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, and many had not expected this seat to be very competitive as it is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis, is the Republican nominee, fending off a primary challenge from chiropractor Dave Langheier with 82% of the vote. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the Democratic nominee. After Busansky reported stronger than expected first-quarter fundraising, many have begun categorizing this race as competitive. Due in part to Busansky's fundraising, the DCCC has chosen her as one of 22 candidates that have the potential to pick up seats, and will likely provide Busansky with a high amount of funding. (For more details, see Florida 9th congressional district election, 2006). An October 16th-18th SurveyUSA poll has Bilirakis leading Busansky 57% to 36% [23]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• Florida's 10th congressional district-Incumbent Bill Young (R) may be vulnerable as he represents Pinellas County which went to Bush by only 226 votes in the last election and Kerry very nearly won the district in 2004 with 49 percent of the vote. Young will face Democrat Samm Simpson in the general election in November. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Florida's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Katherine Harris (R) vacated her Gulf Coast seat to challenge Democratic Senator Bill Nelson. This congressional district is solidly GOP-leaning, so a Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district. Harris won reelection in 2004 with an unexpectedly modest 55% of the vote. State Representative Nancy Detert, former State Representative Donna Clarke, banker George "Tramm" Hudson, wealthy automobile dealer Vern Buchanan and former state Representative Mark Flanagan all challenged for the Republican nomination, which went to Buchanan with 32.3% of the vote. Competition between Hudson and Buchanan had been contentious, with accusations of negative campaigning and a great deal of publicity for Hudson's racially-charged remarks at a Christian Coalition campaign event, which resulted in a third-place finish for Hudson behind Detert. Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings is the 2006 Democratic nominee after ousting the nominee in the 2004 race, Jan Schneider. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Jennings leading Buchanan 49% to 47% [24]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

• Florida's 16th congressional district- Incumbent Mark Foley (R) was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2004. However, on September 29, 2006, Foley announced that he would be resigning his seat in Congress, effective immediately, and dropping out of his reelection campaign, after it was revealed that he sent underage male Congressional aides sexually explicit internet messages. On October 2nd, State Republicans chose Joe Negron as Foley's replacement [25]. The Democratic nominee for the seat is Tim Mahoney. However, Florida law prohibits changing the name on the ballot at such a late date. Foley's name will remain on the ballot, but his votes will go to Negron. This put Negron at a severe disadvantage. However, the huge amount of publicity generated by this development has boosted Negron's name I.D., and now the race is competitive. According Florida's Sun-Sentinel, Mahoney leads Negron 48% to 41% with 11% undecided [26]. On Cook Political Report rating: Leans Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Leans Democratic.

• Florida's 22nd congressional district— Republican incumbent Clay Shaw has been elected to twelve terms in the House and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970s. He is seeking reelection to his seat, but many Democrats hope that this time around number 13 really will be unlucky for Shaw. Shaw faced a tough challenge in 2000 from State Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf and scored somewhat easier reelections in 2002 and 2004. Now he is once again a top target of the Democrats—this time, his challenger is State Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein. Expect this race to be very competitive as Klein is a good fundraiser and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. To date, Shaw has raised $3.4 million and Klein $2.8 million, making Klein the best financed challenger in the nation. Although Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004 with 63% of the vote, compared with John Kerry's 50% to 48% advantage over George W. Bush in the district, Shaw's opponent in 2004 had dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Klein leading Shaw 50% to 48% [27]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite.

Georgia

Main article: Georgia United States House elections, 2006

A recent redistricting has changed the boundaries of Georgia's congressional districts. While historically a Democratic state, the state has leaned more and more to the Republican Party and also spawned a prominent Republican congressman in Newt Gingrich, the one-time House Speaker who triumphed in the 1994 Republican Revolution that is best known for the Contract with America. This has resulted in tough challenges for two of Georgia's Democratic congressmen.

• Georgia's 8th congressional district (old Georgia's 3rd congressional district)— A Republican mid-decade redistricting made this Macon-based district more compact and somewhat more Republican. Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins, who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 won by only 50.5% to 49.5%. The race has featured heavy spending, not only by the candidates themselves, but from independent groups. President George W. Bush recently attended a rally for Collins. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

• Georgia's 12th congressional district— Democrat John Barrow unseated first-term Republican Max Burns by 52% to 48% in a Democratic leaning district which Burns won over a scandal-tainted opponent in 2002. This year, Burns is seeking a rematch. Recent redistricting made this southern Georgia district more marginal, but the balance still leans to the Democrats. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

Hawaii

While Hawaii has historically been a stronghold for the Democratic Party, Republicans have made some inroads within the state, most notably in the election of Governor Linda Lingle, the first Republican to win the office in forty years. The warnings of one of Hawaii's two members of the House of Representatives in regards to the ages of its two elderly U.S. Senators has also resulted in a major primary battle between U.S. Senator Daniel Akaka and Representative Ed Case, leaving one of Hawaii's two Congressional seats open. The primary was on September 23, 2006.

• Hawaii's 2nd congressional district— In a surprise move, Rep. Ed Case announced in January of 2006 that he would challenge Daniel Akaka for the Democratic nomination to the United States Senate. This opened up his Democratic-leaning seat, which includes Kauai, Maui, the Island of Hawaii and part of Oahu. The district has a strong Democratic tilt, although Republicans occasionally win elections there. Both parties had primaries which turned out to be cliffhangers. Former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono won the 10-candidate Democratic primary, outpolling state Senator Colleen Hanabusa, by a mere 836 votes, while in the Republican primary, state Senator Bob Hogue edged out former state Representative Quentin Kawananakoa, a descendant of the Hawaiian Royal Family, by 189 votes. The district's politics and Hirono's name recognition from her 2002 campaign for Governor make her the favorite, although Hogue benefits from being a local sportscaster and columnist. Case won the 2004 election 63% to 37%. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Idaho

In recent years, the state of Idaho has transformed itself into a steadfast breadwinner for the Republican Party, electing Republican presidential candidates in double-digit margins. The appointment of Governor Dirk Kempthorne to the United States Secretary of the Interior in the Bush Administration, along with the fact that the new Governor, Jim Risch, has already committed to run for his former position as Lieutenant Governor, has opened the doors for one of its two Congressmen to seek the governorship, leaving his seat wide open to a hard-line conservative Republican and a Democratic attorney, both of whom seek the seat.

• Idaho's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for Governor. Though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992, the district, which contains the Idaho Panhandle region and most of the Boise metropolitan area, has been reliably Republican in recent years. In the May 23 primary, hard-line conservative state Representative Bill Sali edged out a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with 26%. Attorney Larry Grant won the Democratic nomination. Sali is a controversial figure in Idaho politics who clashed repeatedly with Republican leadership in the Idaho Legislature. He also ran a lot of negative ads against his fellow Republicans to win the nomination. Some of Sali's Republican detractors have publicly said that they will back Grant in the general election. All this may give Grant a boost in the general election, although Sali remains favored given the GOP tilt of the area and the popular Otter at the top of the ticket. However, Otter has recently lost ground to his Democeratic opponent in that race. Other candidates include Constitution Party nominee Paul Smith and independent Dave Olson. A new party called the United Party has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. These candidates are not expected to make a significant showing in the race. An October 25th Mason-Dixon poll has Sali leading Grant 39% to 37% with 21% undecided [28]. On October 18, The Cook Political Report changed their rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

Illinois

Besides boasting one of the largest Congressional delegations in the House, Illinois has also strengthened its presence in the Democratic Party. Three House members in the northern and western suburbs of Chicago have become involved in competitive races that hold a variety of scenarios for Republicans. One Republican hopes to follow in the footsteps of a retiring veteran House member, another looks to hold on a seat that also voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama, and a third looks to take back a Republican-leaning seat lost to a Democrat in 2004. Both Republicans and Democrats have seen some of their elected officials come under fire recently, with Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert taking the heat of criticism from the Mark Foley scandal, while Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich has seen his administration come under investigation for practices related to contracts involving the Illinois State Toll Highway Authority and its vendors.

• Illinois's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Decorated Iraq War Combat Veteran L. Tammy Duckworth who lost both her legs in combat, received substantial backing from the state and national Democrat party, winning in the primary. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as the Republican candidate. Duckworth is emphasizing fiscal conservatism, including an opposition to so-called spending "earmarks," and is promoting her support for federal funding of embryonic stem cell research. But Republican officials and Roskam's campaign say Duckworth has not staked out clear positions on some major issues and is too closely tied to Chicago Democratic strategists who recruited her and are advising her campaign. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength in the district has grown in recent years, but the balance still tilts to the Republicans. An October 24th Daily Herald poll has Roskam leading Duckworth 46% to 42% [29]. June 29 Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. In mid-August, CQPolitics changed their rating of this race from "Leans Republican" to No Clear Favorite. On 27 September 2006, the Evans-Novak Political Report rated the district as Leans Democrat. In a Zogby poll released on October 4, Duckworth led Roskam 43-38 percent.

• Illinois's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. Investment banker David McSweeney, who has been willing to spend much of his own money on the campaign, won a crowded Republican primary. This race is a top Republican priority. A more liberal third party candidate and former 2004 Democratic Candidate, Bill Scheurer, is running and some labor unions are withholding support from Bean, complicating her re-election chances; the Chamber of Commerce has endorsed her and provided $400,000 for an early TV ad buy. An October 24th Daily Herald poll has Bean leading McSweeney 42% to 39% [30]. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic. (For details, see Illinois 8th congressional district election, 2006‎.)

• Illinois's 10th congressional district— Although reliably Republican in past elections, this district located in the northern suburbs of Chicago in coastal Cook County and Lake County, along Lake Michigan, voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama in 2004, which may make re-election a challenge for incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Mark Kirk is the head of the Moderate Republican caucus and has voted equally within Democratic and Republican party lines. He is fiscally conservative, but remains pro-choice and pro-environment. Democratic hopes for winning here rose after Melissa Bean's win in the nearby 8th Congressional District, which is more Republican. The Democratic candidate is GE Commercial Finance Director of Marketing Dan Seals. As of July 2005, Seals is well-funded with over half a million dollars on hand. An October 15th-16th Majority Watch poll has Kirk leading Seals 46% to 44% [31]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• Illinois's 11th congressional district- Republican Jerry Weller, who was part of the 1994 Republican Revolution in which the GOP took control of the House and Senate, was reelected with 59% of the vote in 2004. Weller has received donations from a number of controversial sources. They include Exelon, the parent company of his district's electric utility, Commonwealth Edison, which is being sued by Will County residents following leaks of radioactive tritium at two plants within the district, which has contaminated well water. Weller has not returned these donations. Other controversial donors include disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff (as well as Indian tribes that were represented by Abramoff); Tom DeLay's Americans for a Republican Majority; Enron; and the law firm of Winston and Strawn, which represented former disgraced Illinois Governor George Ryan (R) in his corruption trial. This year, Weller will face Democrat John Pavich, who if elected would become the youngest member of Congress (born in 1976). Cook Political Report rating: Safe Republican. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Illinois's 14th congressional district – Republican Dennis Hastert, who is the current Speaker of the House, won the 2004 election by a 2 to 1 margin. Until revelations of Hastert's role in the Mark Foley scandal Hastert was facing minimal opposition from Democratic challenger John Laesch. Due to this revelation, Hastert is facing calls for his resignation as Speaker and it is unclear if Laesch will be able to take advantage of the controversy around Hastert in this strongly Republican district. An October 8th-10th Majority Watch poll has Hastert leading Laesch 52% to 42% [32]. Cook Political Report rating: Safe Republican. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Illinois's 17th congressional district— This western Illinois district, which includes Moline, was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee is Phil Hare, a former aide to Evans. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga, ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Leans Democratic.

• Illinois's 19th congressional district-The Mark Foley scandal could affect the outcome of Republican incumbent John Shimkus' re-election campaign. Shimkus is the Chairman of the House Page Board and did not inform fellow Page Board members, including Dale Kildee (D-MI), of allegations against Foley. Shimkus' Democratic opponent is Centralia City Councilman Dan Stover. An October 8th-10th Majority Watch poll has Shimkus leading Stover 53% to 36% [33].

Indiana

Known as a stronghold for the Republican Party, Indiana has proven to be a conservative state in the Midwest. No Democratic candidate has been fielded in the Indiana Senate race, leaving the popular incumbent since 1976 Richard Lugar running against libertarian Steve Osborn. However, three of the Hoosier State's Republican congressmen have become targets of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as of mid-July.

• Indiana's 2nd congressional district— Chris Chocola (R) was first elected in 2002 by a 50% to 46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54% to 45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is potentially vulnerable. He has been damaged by the local unpopularity of GOP Governor Mitch Daniels. Particularly controversial is the Governor's decision to lease a toll road which runs through the district to a foreign corporation, which proceeded to raise toll rates dramatically. This has infuriated residents in northern Indiana, and Chocola has suffered greatly from the backlash. Recently, Donnelly was embarrassed when it was revealed that he was delinquent in paying property taxes. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Donnelly leading Chocola 48% to 45% [34]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. On October 11, CQPolitics changed their rating: from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

• Indiana's 7th congressional district— Julia Carson (D) has held this Congressional seat, based in urban Indianapolis since 1996, and has always won by comfortable margins. This year was expected to be no exception, but that may not be the case. Republican automobile dealer Eric Dickerson has run an aggressive grass-roots campaign since defeating a party-endorsed candidate in the Republican primary. But a recent poll shocked observers of both parties when it showed Dickerson narrowly leading, 45% to 42% [35]. Carson points out that she always polls more strongly than expected on election day.

• Indiana's 8th congressional district— John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal. The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994. In mid-October, an opinion poll commissioned by the Evansville Courier & Press showed Ellsworth leading Hostettler, 55% to 32%. However, an October 20th Research 2000 poll has Ellsworth leading Hostettler only 50% to 43% [36]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. On October 11, CQPolitics changed their rating: from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic.

• Indiana's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated then-incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004, the smallest winning percentage in any congressional race that year. Hill has announced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He defeated anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2 primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time. Democrats claim Hill's constituent service record was superior to Sodrel's. Hill has nearly a million dollars on hand. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Hill leading Sodrel 51% to 43% [37]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics.com rating: No clear favorite.

Iowa

Known as a moderate state that often leans between Republicans and Democrats in national elections, Iowa voters will be facing a dilemma at the polls in 2006. With Democratic Governor and potential 2008 presidential candidate Tom Vilsack leaving office after the 2006 election, a Republican congressman has set his sights on Iowa's highest position, resulting in a showdown for the open Congressional seat.

• Iowa's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque, the Quad Cities and Waterloo. Wealthy businessman Mike Whalen won the Republican nomination in a mild surprise by emphasizing border security, while attorney Bruce Braley is the Democratic nominee. Nussle was reelected in 2000 and 2004 with 55% of the vote but Al Gore and John Kerry won the district in those same years, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006. In a Zogby poll release on October 4, Whalen led Braley by 47% to 34%. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

• Iowa's 2nd congressional district- Incumbent Jim Leach (R) received 59% of the vote in 2004. Leach is consistently among the most liberal Republicans in the House, representing what is widely considered to be Iowa's most Democratic district. Democrat David Loebsack will challenge him in 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a closer than expected 2004 reelection in a district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti is challenging Boswell and is well-funded. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems and his breaking a term-limit pledge, made when he first ran for office, could factor into the race. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

Kansas

Although Kansas is known widely as a predominantly Republican state, Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius is popular with voters here. Given that, Democrats or Republicans have a shot at making gains in the Jayhawk State in 2006.

• Kansas's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jerry Moran (R) is up against Democrat opponent John Doll. This district voted 72% in 2004 for George W. Bush, and Moran was unopposed that year. Moran is a mostly conservative Republican, and has supported changes to Medicare and cuts in the federal tax levels. He opposes a timetable for a withdrawal from the Iraq War. Though the 1st District is a Republican district, the 2002 governor's race showed it is winnable for Democrats: the district gave 52% of its vote to Kathleen Sebelius. Moran has represented the district since 1997, often without an opponent for re-election. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Kansas's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Ryun (R) won re-election by just 56% in 2004 and has held this seat for five terms. This district is home to Topeka, Manhattan (location of Kansas State University), Leavenworth, and Pittsburg. The district also has been Democratic in the past, since before 1994, Democrats held the seat for 20 out of 24 years. However, redistricting has made the seat more safe. Ryun also faces controversy over a Washington DC real estate purchase: Ed Buckham's U.S. Family Network sold a townhouse to him at a $19,000 loss after two years of ownership, despite the fact that housing values were rising dramatically in that area. Ryun is being challenged by Democrat Nancy Boyda. A highly disputed internal poll released by Boyda in September found a razor-thin lead for the Democrat.[38] CQpolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Kansas's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won reelection in 2004 with only 54% of the vote, but this Kansas City-based district nearly ousted him in 2000 and 2002 and voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. Banker Chuck Ahner will challenge Moore in 2006 after winning a competitive primary comfortably; an upset is possible in this Republican-leaning, independent-minded district. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Kentucky

Kentucky has been known as a solidly conservative state that has trended Republican in recent state and national elections. But with incumbent Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher unpopular at the moment, and a conservative Democrat looking to take back a seat he left behind in the previous election cycle, cracks have started to show in a state that easily went to George W. Bush.

• Kentucky's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver, whose background in business and War Veteran of both Korea and Vietnam make it hard to portray him as a liberal. However, Weaver's fundraising has been disappointing. Cook Political Report rating: Safe Republican. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

• Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2004 and 2000, John Kerry and Al Gore both won her congressional district by two percent. While Northup has generally run close races, she won 60% of the vote in the 2004 election. Redistricting after the 2000 census added a few more Republicans to the district, according to Congressional Quarterly. The Democratic candidate this year is John Yarmuth, the founder of local free publication LEO. Democrats claim this race is winnable due to Northup's 91% lockstep voting record with an unpopular President Bush. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Yarmuth leading Northup 52% to 46% [39]. An Survey USA poll in early november confirmed that Yarmuth led 52% to 44%[40] Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. On October 23, CQPolitics changed their rating from Republican Favored to Leans Republican.

• Kentucky's 4th congressional district— First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by U.S. Air Force Major Ken Lucas (D), who held the seat from 1999 to 2005. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district. Brian Houillion (L) entered the race on June 19th. In late July The Washington Post also rated the race as a toss-up. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Lucas leading Davis 50% to 46% [41]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

Louisiana

Main article: Louisiana House elections, 2006

The state of Louisiana has become a conservative stronghold in recent national elections. But this year, a number of congressional seats in the southern portion of Louisiana will all be impacted to some extent as a result of Hurricane Katrina, as well as Hurricane Rita, both of which have caused massive damage within Louisiana. For example, most of New Orleans' majority African-American communities have been displaced by Katrina, which in addition to the William Jefferson bribery scandal, could result in a higher Republican turnout in New Orleans. Also, several Southwestern Louisiana communities that were heavily damaged or destroyed in Rita could also be a factor in voter turnout, given the possibility of how many residents in that region moved elsewhere. Democrats are also saddled with the unpopularity of Governor Kathleen Blanco, who has a -15% net approval rating according to a recent Survey USA poll.

The primary is on Election Day, November 7, 2006. Unlike other states which use a primary voting system in which the top vote-getter from each of the two major parties advance to the general election, the Louisiana primary system calls for a jungle primary system in which all candidates, both Republicans and Democrats, run at the same time. The top two vote-getters then take part in a run-off election the following month.

• Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Congressman William Jefferson (D) has been under intense investigation and the FBI has claimed that it has videotaped him accepting $100,000 in bribes. The police also found money in Jefferson's freezer that was hidden amidst frozen food products. Jefferson has also been stripped of his membership in the Ways and Means Committee as a result of this scandal. While it is virtually unlikely this district will switch to the Republican Party, there is a strong possibility of a primary race here. The seat is located in heavily Democratic New Orleans. No Republican has represented this district since Reconstruction. A Republican lawyer, Joe Lavigne, has officially entered the race against Jefferson, while a number of Democrats have jumped into the race, include state Senator Derrick Shepherd of Marrero, former New Orleans City Councilman Troy Carter, and state Representative Karen Carter. In mid-October, the State Democratic party voted to endorse Karen Carter, the first time in recent memory that the state party has backed a challenger to its own incumbent Congressman. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

• Louisiana's 3rd congressional district— In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Melancon is relatively conservative, and Louisiana's unique jungle primary voting system leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the fact that many voters (particularly African-Americans and the poor, two strongly Democratic demographics) have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences. It is unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

• Louisiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to Chris John in the 1996 runoff. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.Cook Political Report rating: Safe Republican.

Maine

While the two congressional seats in the state of Maine have Republican candidates in 2006, the incumbents, both Democrats, are expected to maintain control of these seats. Maine has become known as a left-leaning state that voted for John Kerry in 2004.

Maryland

Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006

Even though Republicans have made gains in recent years with such high-profile names as Governor Robert Ehrlich and Lieutenant Governor and 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Michael Steele, Maryland is still a Democratic stronghold, having performed among the best states for Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections.

• Maryland's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. The primary elections for both parties were held on September 12, 2006. John Sarbanes, an attorney and son of U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes, won the Democratic nomination with 32% of the vote, while John White, a business executive, won the Republican nomination. The district consists of parts of Baltimore City as well as parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Howard Counties. It includes the state capital of Annapolis. This seat is expected to remain Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Democratic Favored. Cook Political Rating: Safe Democratic.

Massachusetts

None of Massachusetts' ten incumbent congressmen, all Democrats, are facing serious challenges; six of them are unopposed this year. In 2004, four of these congressmen ran unopposed, and each of the six others received at least 64% of the vote.

Michigan

The state of Michigan has historically been a swing state because of the Republicans' presence in the northern and western portions of the state, as well as the Democrats' strong pro-labor tilt coming from the automotive industry mainly centered around Detroit. However, with Michigan's economy sitting in murky waters, Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm is facing a tough challenge from Republican businessman Dick DeVos, which accompanies a number of Republican congressional challenges, one of which has already resulted in the primary defeat of a freshman Congressman attacked by the Club for Growth.

• Michigan's 7th congressional district— Incumbent freshman Joe Schwarz (R) was defeated in the August 8th primary by the more conservative former State representative Tim Walberg, Schwarz's 2004 opponent. Sharon Reiner is the Democratic Party nominee; she hopes that Walberg's hard-line views will be much more unpopular with the general public and will try to appeal to Schwarz supporters. Schwarz refused to endorse Walberg, but may vote for Reiner.[42] CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

• Michigan's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Mike J. Rogers (R) easily defeated pro-life activist Patrick Flynn 84% to 16% in the Republican primary. Rogers' Democratic challenger is former CIA agent James Marcinkowski, who has the financial resources to mount a serious campaign. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored. Cook Political Rating:Safe Republican.

• Michigan's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, that was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by more than 10-to-1. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than spectacular. Also, the fact that Bush barely won the district in 2004 with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. Knollenberg is potentially vulnerable this year. First, he faced a respectable primary opponent in Oakland County School Board member Patricia Godchaux, a moderate ex-state Representative who accused Knollenberg of being ineffective. Knollenberg ended up decisively winning his primary 69% to 31%. For the November general election, radio talk host Nancy Skinner (on Air America Radio affiliate WDTW) is the Democratic challenger. Skinner has raised a considerable amount of money compared to candidates in prior races. She has been endorsed by the UAW, AFL-CIO and NOW. Skinner had previously lived in Illinois, where she had lost to Barack Obama in the Illinois State Senate primary two years ago. A recent internal poll puts Skinner and Knollenberg in a statistical tie. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

Minnesota

In recent years, Minnesota, largely known as a Democratic stronghold that created such nationally known names as Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale, has been drifting rightward to the Republican Party. Still, Democrats, known in Minnesota as DFLers (for the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), continue to have an advantage in this state. The primary is on September 12, 2006.

• Minnesota's 1st congressional district- Incumbent Gil Gutknecht (R) was reelected with 60% of the vote in 2004. A member of the 1994 Republican Revolution, Gutknecht promised not to run for a seventh term when first elected, a broken promise which could backfire on Gutknecht. Geography teacher Tim Walz is the Democratic nominee. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Gutknecht leading Walz 50% to 47% [43]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• Minnesota's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%. Things were expected to be very different in 2006. Whistleblower and Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes. After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Partly as a result, Republicans are becoming more confident about this race. An October 31st SurveyUSA poll has Kline leading Rowley 54% to 36% [44].CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored. Cook Political Report: Safe Republican.

• Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic and no one expects it to change hands. The state Democratic Party has endorsed state Representative Keith Ellison, who won the primary election on September 12 against a wide range of candidates, including Sabo's Chief of Staff, Mike Erlandson. Incidentally, Ellison is a Muslim and if elected, would be the first Muslim to serve in Congress. While the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they had openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis [45] and may even take third to Independence Party candidate Tammy Lee. However, the day after the primary, Republican candidate Alan Fine, a moderate of Jewish heritage, lashed out at Ellison, calling him a racist and an anti-Semite, and the fact that 59% of primary voters in the Democratic primary opposed the party-endorsed Ellison has some watching this race. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

• Minnesota's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is vacating his seat and running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. The Independence Party of Minnesota candidate for the House seat is student and political newcomer John Binkowski, a longtime resident of St. Mary's Point. The Republican nominee for the House seat is State Senator Michele Bachmann, an outspoken social conservative. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, is the Democratic nominee again. She originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the United States Senate instead; upon abruptly dropping out of the Senate race, she re-launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. At the party's nominating convention she defeated former Blaine mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg who is also a former minister opposed to abortion and gun control. Tinklenberg had entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running, and he was supported by the DCCC, which considered him to be more electable due to his moderate views. Now the liberal Wetterling has to win over Tinklenberg's former supporters, some of whom are angry about her going back on her word. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Jesse Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Bachmann leading Wetterling 48% to 47% [46]. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. In mid-August, CQPolitics changed their rating of this race from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite. [47]

• Minnesota's 8th congressional district— Sixteen Term Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) has had little trouble for re-election ever since he's won his first term, and while the district has been relatively safe and hasn't had a Republican represent it since 1947, Oberstar faces a potential challenge from former Republican U.S. Senator Rod Grams and centrist/moderate candidate Harry Welty. Mr. Welty is running under the Unity party as an independent after being inspired by the unity08 political movement. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Mississippi

Mississippi, like most other southern states, has shifted from being a Democratic stronghold to one of the Republican Party. However, Democrats occasionally win elections in this state every year. African-Americans comprise over a third of Mississippi's population.

• Mississippi's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D) successfully faced an aggressive primary challenge from state Representative Chuck Espy, nephew of former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, and won with 65% of the vote. In the general election, he is being challenged by Republican Tchula [48] Mayor Yvonne Brown. Both Espy and Brown have criticized Thompson for leaving the House Agriculture Committee. The district is over three-fifths African-American and solidly Democratic, though Republicans occasionally win local elections in the area. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Missouri

None of Missouri's nine incumbent members of Congress face serious opposition.

Montana

In recent years, Montana has been known as a Republican-leaning state, re-electing George W. Bush by a wide margin in 2004. However, Democrats have been making gains in this state, and the popularity of Governor Brian Schweitzer, along with a tough re-election campaign for incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Conrad Burns, will make things challenging for Montana's only Congressman.

• Montana's at-large congressional district– Although incumbent Dennis Rehberg (R) won with 64% of the vote in 2004 and is generally popular, he is considered to be potentially vulnerable due to Montana having swung over to the Democratic Party in 2004, electing Brian Schweitzer as Governor as well handing control of the State Legislature over to the Democrats. Rehberg also has to contend with the fact that Republican Senator Conrad Burns is facing an extremely tough re-election race. Rehberg's November opponent will be respectably-funded State Representative Monica Lindeen. Libertarian Mike Fellows has also qualified. He also ran in 2004 and won 12,530 votes (3%)CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

Nebraska

Nebraska is known for being a staunchly Republican state. While the U.S. Senators within its congressional delegation have been known to lean to the center of their party (Chuck Hagel with the Republicans, Ben Nelson with the Democrats), its members of the House of Representatives have all recently come from the Republican Party; no Democrat has won a Nebraska congressional seat since 1993.

• Nebraska's 1st congressional district— Republican incumbent Jeff Fortenberry won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressman Doug Bereuter who was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to Congress by margins of 60%–65% and reelected George W. Bush with 66% of the vote in 2004. A Green Party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Democrat and former Nebraska Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January 2006 and will face Fortenberry in November.. In Mid-August, CQPolitics, noting that "recent finance reports show [that Moul had] closed the fundraising gap" changed their rating in this race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.

• Nebraska's 3rd congressional district— Republican incumbent Tom Osborne did not seek re-election, instead making a bid for the Nebraka gubernatorial nomination, only to come up short of incumbent Dave Heineman, who ascended to the position after Governor Mike Johanns became the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture. His district, covering western Nebraska, is strongly Republican. Nebraska legislator Adrian Smith won the Republican nomination; he will face off in November against the Democratic candidate, rancher Scott Kleeb. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

Nevada

With the rapid growth of the Las Vegas metropolitan area, Nevada has become increasingly influential in American politics. The political divide between the northern and southern portions of the state, along with the presence of a prominent Democratic leader in Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, has resulted in Nevada's status a swing state. Clark County, which takes in the bulk of Nevada's population and includes Las Vegas, was the only county that went to John Kerry in 2004. The primary was on August 15, 2006. If Shelley Berkley wins reelection and Jill Derby and Tessa Hafen win in November, Nevada will become the first state to have all female delegation in the U.S. House.

• Nevada's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Shelley Berkley (D) is running against Kenneth Wegner (R) and Jim Duensing (L)

• Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. Current Secretary of State Dean Heller is the Republican nominee for the seat. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Nevertheless, GOP party in-fighting seems to be giving the Democrats a chance here. Democratic candidate Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, ran unopposed, while Heller had to run in a bruising primary; he defeated former State Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons - Jim Gibbons' wife - and current Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who was heavily supported by the Club for Growth, beating the latter by only 428 votes.[49]. Citing irregularities, Angle filed a motion in court for a new election, an action supported by the state GOP chairman, which the court eventually rejected. See more info at Nevada 2nd congressional district election, 2006 CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

• Nevada's 3rd congressional district— Since the creation of the district in 2002, incumbent Jon Porter (R) has won both elections by comfortable margins. However, this district is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, and Porter has drawn the ire of Senator Reid. Reid's former press secretary Tessa Hafen, backed by her ex-boss, is challenging Porter. The November ballot will also include Libertarian Joseph P. Silvestri and Independent American Joshua Hansen. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire is the most conservative state in the Northeast, with a political tradition that has been likened to that of the Libertarian Party. Republicans hold both Congressional seats and most state and local offices. On the other hand, New Hampshire gave its four electoral votes to John Kerry in 2004 and to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. NH's Democratic Governor John Lynch, who defeated incumbent Republican Governor Craig Benson in 2004, is widely popular and strongly favored to beat his Republican opponent in 2006. Democrats have mounted strong challenges to Republican incumbents in both Congressional seats. The primary was on September 12, 2006.

• New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Charles Bass (R) won reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote, even as his district was won by John Kerry 52% to 47%. Bass is a self-described political moderate, who easily defeated primary challenges from Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson and Mary Maxwell. The Democratic nominee is the 2004 challenger Paul Hodes, an attorney. A Concord Monitor poll from September 2006 show Bass leading Hodes by 25 percent, however a poll released in August 2006 from Anzalone-Lizst Research showed the two neck and neck. [50]. In late September, a top Bass staffer resigned after news stories that a US Government computer from Bass's DC office had been posting anonymous concern troll messages to NH blogs. In these messages, "IndyNH" claimed to be a supporter of Paul Hodes who was discouraged by Bass's unbeatable lead. [51] This race has become competitive, due to numerous factors including previous Democratic trends and the popularity of Democratic Governor John Lynch. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Hodes leading Bass 50% to 47% [52]. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican. In the October 23 issue of Barrons, Jim McTague includes the NH Second District race in the category "some of the tightest" and predicts that Hodes will beat Bass in November.

. Main Article: New Hampshire congressional elections, 2006

New Jersey

Highly touted as one of the most politically competitive states in America, New Jersey has often historically split between the Republican and Democratic parties, but has favored Democrats in recent elections. In fact, New Jersey is known to be one of the nation's most socially liberal states. However, Democrats have hit a snag in the Garden State. The recent state budget problem and Governor Jon Corzine's tax and budget proposals have not been well received. [53] Corzine, a former U.S. Senator, has negative approval ratings, including a -5% approval rating in the September 2006 SurveyUSA Governor's poll,[54] which could prove beneficial to Republicans, including U.S. Senate candidate Tom Kean, Jr.. However, President Bush's approval rating in the state is very negative, getting a -29% approval rating in the October 2006 50 State President Approval poll.[55]

• New Jersey's 3rd congressional district— Jim Saxton (R) won with 63% of the vote in 2004 in a district that George W. Bush carried by a 167,254 -159,041 plurality over John Kerry. Democrats thought in 2000 they had a tough opponent for Saxton in Cherry Hill (the district's largest community) Mayor Susan Bass Levin who raised and spent substantially, but Saxton won by 58%. Despite his easy re-election in 2000, some Democrats think Saxton has never faced any strong competition. Some also consider his views ultra-conservative and believe the district is trending Democratic, which could make his chances of re-election tougher. Republicans, however, believe he is a strong candidate, as Ocean County was carried handily by Bush and losing GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Forrester. The district runs from the central shore of New Jersey through Burlington County and into the Philadelphia suburbs. Running on the Democratic side is Rich Sexton, an Attorney, a 20 Year Veteran and officer in the United States Navy, and a Fighting Dem. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• New Jersey's 5th congressional district— Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in 2004 in what is normally a Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is challenging Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garrett is likely also to face questions about why he opposed renewing the Voting Rights Act and other controversial votes he made. This district gave George W. Bush a 184,530- 137,019 pluraility over John Kerry in 2004 and the district was one of two New Jersey districts carried by Bob Dole in 1996 when he was crushed in the Garden State. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

• New Jersey's 7th congressional district— Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak. His recent perceived opposition to the "morning after pill"[56] may become an issue for him in a district that is supportive of social moderates like Thomas Kean, Jr., a local state senator who is running for US Senate this year against Bob Menendez. This district voted for Bush by 1 point in 2000 and his plurality increased to a 164,176-144,767 margin in 2004, however. Three term State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) is challenging Ferguson in 2006. She has received endorsements from a number of Liberal groups and may benefit from her active internet campaign. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

• New Jersey's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor-elect Jon Corzine, leaving his House seat vacant. The district, situated between New York City and Newark and includes Bayonne, Jersey City, West New York, and Hoboken, is heavily Democratic. State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires easily won the Democratic primary and faces Republican community activist John Guarini in the general election. Ironically, Sires started his political career as a Republican and protoge of former Governor Thomas Kean, while Guarini is the son of former Democratic Congressman Frank Guarini, Menendez's predecessor in Congress. Sires has said that he would be willing to consider drilling in the ANWR to help reduce oil and gasoline prices, a somewhat distinctive position among Democrats. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

New Mexico

In presidential elections, New Mexico has traditionally been won by the winner of the presidency, including 2004 when George W. Bush narrowly won its five electoral votes with less than 50% of the vote. The Democratic upswing in New Mexico is mostly centered around the northern part of the state, including Albuquerque, where one incumbent Republican faces a strong challenge.

• New Mexico's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed difficult reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 55% to 45% margin in this Albuquerque-based swing district. But in 2006 she will face Democrat Patricia Madrid, New Mexico's Attorney General, who is barred from seeking a third term in that position. Madrid will undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson and is also well-funded. Both candidates have gone on the offense, with Madrid charging that Wilson is a rubber stamp for the Bush administration and Wilson charging that Madrid has ignored corruption in state government. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive; it was narrowly won by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. An October 8th-10th Majority Watch poll has Madrid leading Wilson 52% to 44% [57]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite.

New York

In federal elections, the Empire State has consistently handed its vote to Democratic candidates. Of New York's twenty-nine congressional districts, all but ten are centered around heavily liberal and Democratic New York City and its surrounding suburbs, including Long Island and Westchester County. In addition, Democrats are also predicting easy victories in the double digits for its gubernatorial candidate, New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, and Senator Hillary Clinton. In 2002, a reapportionment was conducted and was planned as what is described as "a bipartisan incumbent protection plan". Many of the Republican-held districts were won by George W. Bush in the 2000 election while he lost statewide by a 25% margin. The primary was held on September 12, 2006. On September 11, the New York Times reported that Democrats were becoming less optimistic they could win Republican held seats in New York this year.

• New York's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, but King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. Although King has broken with his party on a few key issues, he is potentially vulnerable in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal. Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias announced his candidacy on May 25 [58] and will be King's strongest opponent in years. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has King leading Mejias 51% to 44% [59]. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

• New York's 11th congressional district— Incumbent Major Owens (D) is retiring after 12 terms. In 2004 Owens was reelected with a staggering 94% of the vote in this majority African-American district in the center of Brooklyn. The Democratic primary was won by New York City Councilwoman Yvette Clarke. Little-known Republican physician Steve Finger is also running for the open seat. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

• New York's 13th congressional district- Since easily winning a special election in 1997, Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an underfunded opponent. Lawyer and Bay Ridge community leader Steve Harrison [60] is the 2006 Democratic candidate. Fossella is the only Republican in New York City's Congressional delegation. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• New York's 19th congressional district- Incumbent Sue Kelly (R) has rarely faced stiff competition since her initial election in 1994, but she has drawn six Democratic challengers this year, two of whom dropped out before the primary. Former Ulster County Legislator John Hall (musician), who was once a member of the popular rock band, Orleans (band), won Democratic nomination with 49% of the vote in a multi-candidate primary. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Hall leading Kelly 49% to 47% [61]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

• New York's 20th congressional district— Incumbent John E. Sweeney (R) has never really had any election troubles up until now. Sweeney, however, has had issues over a remark he made about his Democratic opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, saying that she was "a pretty face". This rural and suburban district is among the more Republican in the Northeast. Sweeney has a politically moderate stance. An October 15th-16th Majority Watch poll has Gillibrand leading Sweeney 54% to 41% [62]. An October 19th Siena poll, Sweeney leads Gillibrand 53% to 39% [63]. Libertarian Eric Sundwall and Liberal Party candidate Morris Guller are also challenging Sweeney. (For more details, see New York 20th congressional district election, 2006.) Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: No clear favorite.

• New York's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the Democrats in the followup to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate Republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by only 3,000 votes in the 2000 presidential election. The Republican nominee is moderate state Senator Ray Meier, while the Democratic nominee is Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri. Both are locally popular and proven vote-getters and the race is a toss-up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss-Up.

• New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent James T. Walsh (R), ran unopposed in 2004 and while the Syracuse-based district hasn't had a Democrat represent it since 1971, John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 2.5%. Thus, Walsh had the unusual distinction of being the only Republican to win unopposed and not have George W. Bush win his district. Democrats are fielding former congressional aide Dan Maffei. An October 15th-16th Majority Watch poll has Maffei leading Walsh 51% to 43% [64]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican.

• New York's 26th congressional district— Incumbent Thomas M. Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist and Marine Veteran Jack Davis. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis, who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign against Reynolds' support of free-trade, which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers, but Davis is independently wealthy, vowing to spend up to $2 million on his campaign. Reynolds held a small lead in the polls until the Mark Foley scandal broke at the end of September. Reynolds had some knowledge of Foley's emails, and his chief of staff, Kirk Fordham, formerly Foley's chief of staff, was more directly involved. A Zogby poll released on October 8 showed a 15% deficit for Reynolds.. An October 25th SurveyUSA poll has Reynolds leading Davis 50% to 45% with 5% undecided [65]. In the space of just a week CQPolitics changed their rating from Safe Republican, to Leans Republican, and then again to Leans Democratic.

• New York's 29th congressional district— Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former U.S. Navy officer Eric Massa, a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate General Wesley Clark. Massa has been an extremely adept fundraiser and has become a darling of the netroots with numerous favorable articles on popular progressive weblogs such as dailykos.com and mydd.com. In March, President Bush visited the district, in part as a boost to Kuhl's re-election campaign. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Massa leading Kuhl 53% to 42% [66]. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

North Carolina

While North Carolina has become a largely Republican state in federal elections, Democrats often win state races and have a slight edge in both houses of the North Carolina General Assembly. However, the GOP's 7-6 majority in its congressional delegation is being threatened by strong Democratic challenges to several incumbents.

• North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. His opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% is a less than spectacular margin. The district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. Democrats have made an issue of Hayes' vote in favor of CAFTA, which was seen as threatening to the area's textile industry. Hayes' vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. During the past few election cycles, Hayes also received the second largest amount of money among all Congressional candidates from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Hayes has refused to return the $47,000 he received from the former House Majority Leader's political action committee, despite calls from Democrats to do so. He faces Larry Kissell, a school teacher from Biscoe, NC, who is running a largely grassroots campaign. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored. Cook Political Report: Likely Republican.

• North Carolina's 11th congressional district— Charles H. Taylor (R) won with 55% in 2004, far behind George W. Bush in the area. His district consists of the North Carolina Panhandle around Asheville. He will face tougher competition from former professional quarterback Heath Shuler (D) in 2006. So far things are not looking good for Taylor, with Shuler outraising him by over $100,000 so far and Taylor has been dogged by ethical scandals in his fundraising team. A July 10 poll by Public Policy Polling shows that Schuler leads Taylor by 51% to 45% [67]. However, Taylor is one of the wealthier members of Congress and can tap into his own funds if necessary.. Shuler though is also independently wealthy after saving most of the money he earned as a Washington Redskin, and doing well in the real estate business. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite.

• North Carolina's 5th congressional district and North Carolina's 10th congressional district - If the elections turn as sharply against Republicans as is predicted, these two races could become close, since both incumbents (Patrick McHenry and Virginia Foxx) are only one-term incumbents. McHenry is challenged by Richard Carsner, while Foxx faces Roger Sharpe.

North Dakota

North Dakota can be best be described as a split state. Republicans control both houses of the state Legislature, the presidential election has gone to the Republican candidate in every election since 1968, and Republican Governor John Hoeven is hugely popular. However, since 1986, the Democratic-NPL (North Dakota's Democratic Party affiliate) has won every federal House and Senate race.

• North Dakota's at-large congressional district— Incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) has won reelection by varying margins against widely differing opponents since his first election in 1992; the closest race was in 2002, where Pomeroy won 52% to 48% against then state Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh. This year, he will be challenged by farmer Matt Mechtel, a former President of the North Dakota Soybean Council. Pomeroy has a large fundraising lead and is favored to win again, though he is not assured of reelection. Cook Political Report rating: Safe Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Ohio

In 2004, President George W. Bush narrowly won Ohio, which has recently become a major swing state in presidential elections. However, the reputation of Ohio's Republican Party has been severely damaged by the unparalleled unpopularity of outgoing Republican Governor Bob Taft, who faced numerous corruption scandals in recent years, including the infamous Coingate scandal. Taft also became the first Ohio governor ever to be charged with a crime while in office, pleading no contest to four criminal misdeameanors resulting from his failure to disclose thousands of dollars in gifts, including lobbyist-endorsed golf outings. All of Ohio's congressional races will be impacted to some extent, including races that are not even considered close. Republican incumbent Ralph Regula, who has served for more than 30 years, and whose 16th District includes the Canton area, barely won his primary against a newcomer, for example. Several of Ohio's congressional seats are considered to be in play.

• Ohio's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) was part of 1994's Republican Revolution, when he unseated an incumbent. He is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley, who challenged him in 2000. The first district, which takes in most of Cincinnati, is marginal and has elected both Democrats and Republicans in the past. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Cranley leading Chabot 48% to 46% with 7% undecided [68]. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

• Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) was elected by a 2005 special election to replace the seat vacated by Congressman Rob Portman. She narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett in a strongly Republican district. Recent June 2006 polling conducted by Momentum Analysis shows Congresswoman Schmidt tied at 44% with Democratic challenger, physician Victoria Wulsin. The same poll also showed Wulsin leading Schmidt in Hamilton County, the largest county of the district, by a margin of 50% to 37%. Many have stated that this polling is a surprise but could be the result of press coverage regarding Congresswoman Schmidt's November 2005 House floor remarks about Congressman John Murtha (D-PA). An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Schmidt leading Wulsin 51% to 46% [69]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

• Ohio's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not elected a Democrat to represent the area since 1936. The district, however, has been trending Democratic. Oxley won a massive 81% of the vote in 1986, which declined to an average of 68% in the 1990's, 61% in 2000 and only 59% in 2006. Republican state Senator Jim Jordan won the primary comfortably and is the favorite in the general election against his poorly-financed Democratic opponent, Fighting Dem, veteran and local attorney Richard E. Siferd (D). CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Ohio's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee for Governor of Ohio. The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be highly competitive. Both parties' choices have been damaged by self-inflicted blunders. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel failed to pay property taxes on two defunct businesses he once owned, while Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson was embarrassed after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition, and had to wage a costly write-in campaign to be his party's nominee. But Wilson made a major comeback when his write-in campaign earned him 67% of the vote in the primary. Bladsel won 49% in a three-way primary. Wilson is now the front-runner in the general election, though not a shoo-in. However, a Sept. 29 Survey USA poll found that Wilson was leading Blasdel by a 13 percentage-point margin among likely voters. On October 11, AP reported that the GOP scaled back their expenditures in this race. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Democrat Favored.

• Ohio's 12th congressional district- Imcumbent Pat Tiberi could face a tough race. The distict contains suburbs of Columbus which are slowly trending Democratic. He faces former Congressman Bob Shamansky, who represented this district for one term (winning in 1980, losing to John Kasich in 1982). Shamansky has contributed $1 million of his own money to his campaign. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Ohio's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee against incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine. Brown's district, in the Lorain/Akron area, is heavily blue-collar and has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. However, Republicans appear to have scored a recruiting coup with the candidacy of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, a popular figure in a city that gave George W. Bush only 27% of the vote. Normally, Democrats would have very little trouble holding this district, but Foltin's personal base in a Democratic stronghold gives Republicans a glimmer of hope. Former state Representative Betty Sutton is the Democratic nominee, winning a come-from behind victory in a rough multi-candidate primary, which included former Congressman Tom Sawyer. Nevertheless, on October 11, AP reported that the GOP scaled back their expenditures in this race.. See more info at Ohio 13th congressional district election, 2006 Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Democratic Favored.

• Ohio's 15th congressional district— This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R), Chair of the Congressional Republican Conference, has been reelected without incident for over a decade. However, the high unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and Pryce's close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, one of her strongest opponents to date. Polls show Kilroy leading by up to 12 points.Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite.

• Ohio's 18th congressional district— Robert W. Ney (R), the incumbent since 1995, part of the Jack Abramoff Indian lobbying scandal, withdrew from the race in early August 2006, before pleading guilty a month later. Zack Space, the law director of the city of Dover was the surprise winner of the Democratic nomination. Ney's formal withdrawal on August 14 resulted in a special election to choose his replacement, Ohio state Senator Joy Padgett, who captured just under half of the fewer than 1600 votes cast. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. In the most recent poll, which was conducted before Ney's withdrawal, Space was leading Ney by a small margin. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite. Larry Sabato, right after Padgett's election, also rated this race as a toss-up. In a Zogby poll release on October 4, Padgett trailed Space 45-35 percent.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma has evolved into a prominent state for the Republican Party, where George W. Bush won every county in the state and nearly two-thirds of the vote in 2004. Still, Democrats still hold prominence in the Sooner State, and Oklahoma's governor, Brad Henry, is a Democrat. This year, an incumbent Republican congressman representing Oklahoma City is challenging the popular Henry for the seat, opening the doors for Oklahoma's most heavily urbanized congressional district.

• Oklahoma's 5th District — Incumbent Ernest Istook (R) is retiring to run for governor against the incumbent Democrat Brad Henry. This district is urban, and the registration is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. It is the home district of Governor Henry, and includes the first openly gay State Representative in state history. A Republican has held the seat since 1976. It currently includes Oklahoma, Pottawatomie, and Seminole Counties in central Oklahoma, and is demographically dominated by Oklahoma City. The primary was on July 25, 2006. The 5th district GOP run-off election on August 22, 2006 between Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin and Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, and was won by Lt. Gov. Fallin by a large margin. [70] The Democratic nominee is Oklahoma City physician Dr. David Hunter, who won the primary against the 2004 Democratic nominee Bert Smith, a veteran and Oklahoma City public school teacher. According to an October 31st SurveyUSA poll, Fallin leads Hunter a significant 59% to 37% [71]. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

Oregon

Oregon is seen as a moderately Democratic state. However, Democrats have been losing their clout in this state, where in 2004, John Kerry lost Clackamas County, one of the most populous counties in Oregon which has traditionally voted Democratic. Governor Ted Kulongoski is seen as having tepid support, with 44% of Oregonians approving of his job.

• Oregon's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Darlene Hooley (D) for the most part has faced easy re-election since her election to Congress in 1996. In the 2004 election however, Hooley won with only 53% of the vote in a swing district against a little known Republican Candidate. Furthermore, the district was narrowly won by President George W. Bush by 1% and has a Republican voter registration advantage of eight thousand, which could signal risk for Hooley's re-election in 2006. The district spans Salem and parts of Corvallis and Portland. The Republicans were not able to recruit a top tier candidate in 2006, though they were able to convince businessman Mike Erickson, an inexperienced candidate, to join the race just before the March 7 filing deadline. Erickson initially appeared to lack the name recognition, funding and organization to pose a serious challenge to the savvy and well-funded Hooley, however he has contributed nearly $1.3 Million dollars to his campaign, matching the money raised by Hooley. [72] Paul Aranas (Green Party) is also challenging Hooley. CQPolitics has changed this from Safe Democrat to Democrat Favored[73]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic

Pennsylvania

The state of Pennsylvania has become a politically competitive state, having narrowly gone to John Kerry in 2004. Popular Democratic Governor Ed Rendell will be involved a highly-publicized contest with Republican Lynn Swann, a Pittsburgh Steelers Hall of Famer who looks to add a Republican governorship to slight majorities held by the GOP in the Pennsylvania General Assembly. Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs, meanwhile, will be facing a strong challenge from Democrats who look to gain three congressional seats at the expense of the GOP. Democrats have also become targeted by Republicans in this state, especially John Murtha, whose criticism of the War in Iraq has landed him in the crosshairs of Republican strategists. According to the New York Times the NRCC has been spending large amounts of money in the suburbs of Philadelphia (PA-6, PA-7, and PA-8).

• Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 in this competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, who lost in 2004, is running again. Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning $30,000 he has received for his campaigns from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, which was involved in an alleged money laundering scheme; Gerlach has stated that he will give the money away if DeLay is convicted. In July Gerlach opened his media campaign with a TV ad criticizing President Bush's immigration proposals. Murphy has matched Gerlach's fundraising but has about three-quarters of the cash on hand of the incumbent as of October 2nd. A Majority Watch poll on October 26, 2006, had the race Murphy at 51%, Gerlach at 46%. For details, see Pennsylvania 6th Congressional District election, 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite.

• Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-trending district that incorporates much of Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired Navy Vice Admiral Joe Sestak (D). On October 13th, it was reported that Weldon and his daughter are being investigated by the FBI, and two days later the FBI raided his daughter's residence. Between Sestak's fundraising abilites, and the investigation of Weldon and his daughter, CQPolitics.com, in October, changed their rating on this race from "Leans Republican" to the more competitive "No Clear Favorite", and then again to "Leans Democratic". On October 31 the AP reported that the NRCC cancelled ads attacking Sestak to shift funds to other races in the area (the 6th and 8th). See Pennsylvania 7th congressional district election, 2006 Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up.

• Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district— Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County, is considered politically moderate. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia "Ginny" Schrader by a margin of 56% to 42%. Fitzpatrick's views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War Combat Veteran (82nd Airborne Division) Patrick Murphy won the Democratic primary in May and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than Schrader did in 2004. Fitzpatrick has been leading in most, but not all polls, in this close race. . Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics rating: No Clear Favorite.

• Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Don Sherwood (R) has had strong backing as a result of redistricting in this heavy GOP district. The Democrats didn't even field a candidate to run against him in 2002 and 2004. But last year details were made public regarding a five-year affair between Sherwood and Cynthia Ore, who sued Sherwood for $5.5 million alleging physical abuse. On November 8, 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. He was expected to win the Republican primary easily over teacher Kathy Scott, as she had very little money or campaign staff, but she polled a surprising 44% of the vote against him. His Democratic opponent is professor and U.S. Naval Reserve officer Chris Carney. Carney's been leading the race for most of the fall, and an October 26th poll has him leading Sherwood 47% to 38% with 15% undecided . Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. On November 1, CQPolitcs changed their rating from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic.

• Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district— Longtime incumbent John Murtha has long been reelected due to his moderate record and funding of local projects [74]. His high-profile opposition to the Iraq War and numerous appearances on national news networks has generated opposition, however. Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey (R) claims to have gotten money from all over the country. Commissioner Irey has stated that Murtha "defamed" American troops serving overseas with his accusations of US Marines killing innocent civilians in Haditha during an investigation by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service. Unlike the suburban Philadelphia districts, Governor Ed Rendell is not particularly popular in rural western PA, much of which he lost in 2002. Murtha got an unexpected hit when he was listed as one of five congressmen to watch in CREW's 20 Most Corrupt Congressmen (and five to watch). In 2004, however, Murtha won with a large 66% of the vote, and may benefit from a predicted Democratic victory in the governor's and senate races this year in Pennsylvania. Cook Political Report rating: Safe Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Rhode Island

The smallest state in the nation went to John Kerry by a double-digit margin in 2004. Democrats also control -- and dominate -- both houses of the Rhode Island General Assembly. Rhode Island's senate race has been seen as a Republican version of the Connecticut Democratic primary involving Senator Joe Lieberman and liberal anti-war businessman Ned Lamont, the latter of which won the primary. In this primary, liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee faced a tough primary challenge from conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. Pro-life paraplegic Jim Langevin, faced a hard primary challenge in his re-election bid for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district, but went on to defeat the challenger, pro-choice advocate Jennifer Lawless.

South Carolina

South Carolina has been trending towards the Republican Party in recent elections. The Palmetto State's Republican trend is making re-election increasingly difficult for a Democratic veteran of Congress.

• South Carolina's 5th congressional district— John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman. It had looked to be a place where the GOP could pick up a seat, but, shortly after the Mark Foley scandal broke, AP reported that the GOP scaled back their expenditures in this race.. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Democratic Favored.

South Dakota

South Dakota's political climate has been dominated by the Republican Party for decades. Despite being one of the most pro-life states in the country, the incumbent Congresswoman, Stephanie Herseth, is a pro-choice Democrat, which could complicate re-election chances for her in 2006. However, the most recent opinion poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research indicated that 60% of likely voters would support Herseth, and 26% would support Whalen.

• South Dakota's at-large congressional district- Incumbent Stephanie Herseth (D) was elected in 2004 with 53% of the vote in an election season that also culminated in the defeat of then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle by Senator John Thune. An independent voice, Herseth is opposed to gun control and same-sex marriage, but supports abortion rights. Republican Bruce Whalen will challenge her in 2006. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

Tennessee

Tennessee is often regarded as a conservative state equally shared by Republicans and Democrats, the latter of which has a slight majority and minority in the Tennessee House and Senate chambers, respectively. Tennessee's senior U.S. Senator, Republican Majority Leader Bill Frist, has chosen to retire, opening the doors for a moderate Democrat from a family with deep roots in Memphis politics.

• Tennessee's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Bill Jenkins (R) is retiring after five terms in office. The district, located in eastern Tennessee, is considered to be a very safe Republican seat considering that George W. Bush won 68% of the vote in 2004 and that it has been held by a Republican (except for two terms in the 1870s) since the 1860s. Conservative state Representative David Davis of Johnson City, very narrowly edged Sullivan County Mayor Richard Venable in a crowded, multi-candidate primary and is the overwhelming favorite to win the general election. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

• Tennessee's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is vacating his ninth district seat to run for the open Senate seat held by retiring Republican Bill Frist. Based in the heavily African-American Democratic stronghold of Memphis, it has elected only African-Americans since 1974. The Democratic nominee is state Senator Steve Cohen, a white Jewish liberal who won a fifteen-candidate primary with 31%. He will face Republican Mark White and Independent Jake Ford in the general election in November. Cohen is heavily favored to win the general election. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Texas

Main article: Texas United States House elections, 2006

Texas has become known as a solidly rock-ribbed Republican state dominated by social and fiscal conservatism regardless of party affiliation (Democratic strongholds are generally in the urban areas of the state along with the mainly rural Rio Grande Valley). This year's election season has gained a level of attention as big as the state itself. A five-way Governor's race has ensued involving incumbent Republican Rick Perry, Democratic ex-Congressman Chris Bell, Libertarian sales consultant James Werner, and two high-profile independents, Republican comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn and country music singer Kinky Friedman. Currently, Perry currently leads with 40% of the vote, with Friedman, Strayhorn and Bell each grabbing around 20% apiece. The influence of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay on Texas politics has also resulted in a hotly contested race in his district that ended up in court, where Democrats prevented Republicans from replacing the ex-congressman on the November ballot, leaving Republicans to rely on a write-in candidate. Meanwhile, a 2003 Texas redistricting plan orchestrated by DeLay ended up leaving a large South Texas district with what a 5-4 Supreme Court decision deemed an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, putting the political future of that district's incumbent Republican, Henry Bonilla, in jeopardy, and re-drawing four neighboring districts in the process. Texas voters will also see whether the only survivor of the Texas Five targeted by Republicans in 2004 will make it to another two years in Congress. And while popular U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is facing re-election this year, she is expected to cruise to another term in the Senate. Because of the judicially mandated redistricting of the 15th, 21st, 23rd, 25th and 28th districts, these districts will have open primaries on November 7th. A candidate who gets over 50% wins their district outright, otherwise the top 2 candidates have a runoff in December.

• Texas's 10th congressional district— Incumbent freshman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) will face 2004 Libertarian presidential nominee Michael Badnarik along with Vietnam veteran Ted Ankrum of Houston, the Democratic nominee. McCaul was elected with no Democratic opposition in 2004. The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast and central Texas from eastern Austin to Harris County west of Houston.

• Texas's 15th congressional district— Incumbent Rubén Hinojosa (D) was reelected in 2004 with less than 58% of the vote. Hinojosa's district was recently affected by a court ruling that declared the 23rd District unconstitutional, resulting a redraw of five Texas congressional districts, including this one. This year, Hinojosa is slated to face Republican attorney and pro-life activist Paul Haring, who previously served as a Texas State Representative, along with a second Republican, Eddie Zamora, who filed to run in the special election to fill the redrawn district. Before the controversial 2003 redistricting, Hinojosa won his district unopposed in 2002. However, in 2004, Hinojosa won nearly 70% of Hidalgo County and over 86% of Brooks County, while losing several rural northern counties, including Bastrop, Colorado, Fayette, and Lavaca counties. The new District 15 includes none of these aforementioned northern rural counties and instead includes several South Texas counties that were previously held by fellow Democrat Lloyd Doggett. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

• Texas's 17th congressional district— Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district substantially and made it more Republican. He won despite the fact that Bush won the district by a whopping 40% margin. His district includes Waco and Crawford, the location of George W. Bush's ranch. In 2004, Edwards was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth, was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. In 2006, he is being challenged by Van Taylor, an Iraq War veteran from a rich local family. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

• Texas's 21st congressional district— Incumbent Lamar S. Smith (R) is best known for his reportedly lavish style of living, ties to Karl Rove, support for government surveillance, and for saying "Liberals can easily and accurately be painted as opposing enforcement."[75] In the 2006 election Smith will face Veteran and college administrator John Courage (D)[76] Smith has previously had no problem holding this Republican seat since the 1980's, though. The district was left largely unaffected by a recent court ruling that declared the nearby 23rd District unconstitutional as the August 4 federal court remap left this district largely intact. However, five more candidates will appear on the ballot to face Smith and Courage, including perennial Democratic candidate Gene Kelly, Libertarian James Strohm, Independents Tommy Calvert, James Peterson, and Mark Rossano. In this special election, a majority will be required in November to avoid a runoff between the top two contenders. The realigned district now extends from San Antonio into the Texas Hill Country. While the CQPolitics rating is Safe Republican, a recent poll commissioned by the John Courage campaign showed Smith falling short of the 50% needed to avoid the run-off.

• Texas's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R) has retired and left his seat vacant following a number of corruption charges that made him the focus of a September 28, 2005 indictment by a grand jury in Travis County (which includes Austin) over his campaign finances related to Texans for a Republican Majority (TRMPAC) and another political action committee, ARMPAC. DeLay won 55% of the vote in 2004 against a relatively unknown Democrat (environmental lawyer Richard Morrison), even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64% of the vote. On March 7, 2006, DeLay won a four-way Republican primary for his district with 62% of the vote, but announced one month later he was dropping out of the race and resigning from his seat, which he did on June 9, 2006. A special election was possible for the remainder, but Governor Rick Perry has scheuled a special election to fill time until the next Congress. The special election will take place simultaneously with the regular general election. DeLay also announced that he was abandoning his reelection efforts. Because Texas law generally prohibits replacement of a party nominee who withdraws but permits replacement of one who is ineligible, Delay announced that he was moving to Virginia to make himself ineligible for reelection.

Republican leaders in Fort Bend, Brazoria, Harris, and Galveston Counties decided to select a new Republican nominee, but their plans were blocked by a federal judge who ordered on July 5, 2006 that the GOP could not select a replacement to fill DeLay's spot on the ballot - if he withdrew, there would be no Republican nominee. The Fifth Circuit upheld the lower court ruling, and an appeal was turned back by the U.S. Supreme Court in early August, leaving DeLay still on the November ballot. On August 8, DeLay announced that he was withdrawing from the race and taking his name off the ballot. Republicans are rallying around a write-in candidate, Houston City Councilwoman and physician Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, who was chosen by a majority of GOP precinct chairs in the 22nd District. She is also on the special election ballot. [77] However, more than one candidate has entered the race and write-in candidates have rarely won elections historically.

The Democratic candidate is former Congressman Nick Lampson, who represented a district that included much of the eastern portion of the present 22nd District until a redistricting plan engineered by DeLay led to Lampson's defeat (by Republican felony trial judge Ted Poe) in 2004. Bob Smither, whose daughter's kidnapping and murder in 1997 led to Lampson's creation of the Congressional Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus, is the Libertarian nominee. Promising to vote for a Republican Speaker of the House if elected, Smither has stated that "a vote for liberal Democrat Nick Lampson will be a vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker of the House."

The district is dominated by Houston's heavily Republican western and southern suburbs, stretching from Sugar Land and Missouri City in the west and traveling eastward to portions of Pearland and Pasadena, all the way to the NASA Johnson Space Center, Clear Lake City, and Ellington Field. A recent poll indicates that 52 percent of district residents are Republicans. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of 15 in favor of the Republicans. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Leans Democratic. (also see Texas 22nd congressional district election, 2006) An October 30 Zogby poll showed a close race.

• Texas's 23rd congressional district— Incumbent Henry Bonilla (R) received nearly 70% of the vote in 2004. However, his district, which includes several heavily Republican suburbs of San Antonio, as well as Big Bend National Park and much of Texas' border with Mexico, was struck down in a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that the redistricting efforts of the Texas Legislature violated Voting Rights Act protection of minorities - largely Hispanic Laredo was in the 23rd District until the redistricting. On August 4, a federal court redrew the district and removed the portion of Webb County that was in the district, eliminating the possibility of a rematch with Cuellar, and added a heavily Democratic portion of San Antonio, the home base of liberal former congressman Ciro Rodriguez. Rodriguez has stated that he will run against Bonilla in the all-candidate primary on November 7. [78]. However, on August 31 he indicated he was reconsidering his plans and may not contest the seat. The winner of the now somewhat irrelevant Democratic primary, Vietnam War Combat Veteran Rick Bolanos, will also be in the November 7 election. The realigned district is less Republican than the previous version, but Bonilla is still favored against the crowded field of six Democrats, including Rodriguez and Bolanos, and one Independent candidate. Coincidentally, the new district also includes the neighborhood Bonilla grew up in, including his high school, as well as the current residence of his mother, which will give Bonilla a sentimental opportunity to represent that area. A majority will be required in this special election to avoid a runoff between the top two contenders. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

• Texas's 25th congressional district— Democratic Incumbent Lloyd Doggett, who previously represented the 10th District currently represented by Republican Michael McCaul until redistricting moved him into this district, won by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004. Doggett's district was one of five districts realigned as a result of a recent ruling that declared the 23rd District unconstitutional. The redrawn districts have resulted in this district becoming an exclusively Austin-based district, with the addition of over 150,000 residents of Democratic-leaning Travis County to Doggett's district. The counties of Bastrop, Colorado, Fayette and Lavaca, all of which previously belonged to fellow Democrat Rubén Hinojosa, are now included in the district and are all heavily Republican, which could make for a slight challenge for Doggett. The initial Libertarian nominee, Grant Rostig, will be on the ballot as a Republican, along with a Libertarian candidate and an Independent candidate. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

• Texas's 28th congressional district— Incumbent Henry Cuellar (D) won 59% of the vote in 2004. This year, he won 52% of the Democratic primary that included a strong challenge from rival Democrat Ciro Rodriguez that ensued as a result of Cuellar's closeness to President Bush, along with an endorsement from the conservative Club For Growth, and residual resentment from Cuellar's unseating of Rodriguez in the 2004 Democratic primary. Cuellar could have had to face another serious challenge, however, as a result of a Supreme Court ruling that declared the adjacent 23rd District unconstitutional, which resulted in a re-drawing of that district and surrounding ones, that would have pushed Cuellar's hometown of Laredo into the 23rd District, which could have lead to a rematch with incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla, whom Cuellar lost to by only two percentage points in 2002. However, the August 4th federal court remap left Cuellar with a safe seat and no risk of a rematch with his 2002 or 2004 opponents. Cuellar will face a fellow Democrat and a member of the Constitution Party, which ordinarily does not have ballot access in Texas. CQPolitics rating: Safe Democratic.

Utah

Utah is one of the most prominently Republican states in the nation, largely based on the influence of its majority Mormon population. Given these factors, Republicans have targeted Utah's only Democratic congressman in every previous election.

• Utah's 2nd congressional district- Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won re-election in 2004 by a margin of 13%, his district is in a heavily Republican state. The district includes some Democratic areas in Utah, such as the wealthy Summit County, the liberal communities of Grand County, the large Greek communities of Carbon County, the Navajos of San Juan County, and heavily Democratic Salt Lake City. Matheson is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) of Draper, a small affluent suburb of Salt Lake City, is running in the district. However, the most circulated daily newspaper in Utah, The Salt Lake Tribune, has characterized him as too extreme for the area. For example, Christensen was one of two major sponsors of a bill that amended Utah's Constitution to ban same-sex marriage. The amendment was rejected by two-thirds of Summit County, half of Grand County, and only passed by 4% in Salt Lake County, while the state as a whole averaged 66%, with the most supportive areas to banning such marriages being located in the first and third districts, not the second. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70s, the highest for any elected official in Utah. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

• Utah's 3rd congressional district- Congressman Chris Cannon (R) has represented this district for ten years, but found himself in a competitive primary, just as he had in 2004. In a campaign that focused almost exclusively on the immigration issue, Businessman John Jacob repeatedly attacked Cannon for his support for a guest worker program. In May 2006, at the state GOP convention, Jacob surprised Cannon by winning 52 percent of the delegate ballots. "Cannon’s 48 percent showing was especially poor, given that the ballots were cast mainly by the party insiders who dominate such conventions. (A Jacob victory with 60 percent would have denied Cannon the opportunity to wage a primary campaign.)" [79]. The Republican primary was held on June 27, 2006. While polls showed a close race [80], in the June Republican primary, Cannon received 32,306 votes (55.8%) and Jacob received 25,589 votes (44.2%). Cannon will face Democrat Christian Burridge, a lawyer, in November. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

Vermont

Known for its largely independent and libertarian style of politics (in 2004, Vermont voted overwhelmingly for Kerry on the national stage, while simultaneously re-electing popular Republican governor Jim Douglas by an even wider margin.), Vermont has been known in recent years for fielding the only two members of the United States Congress, one in the House and the other in the Senate, with no political affiliation. One of these, Senator Jim Jeffords, is retiring at the end of the 109th Congress citing health concerns and desire to spend time with his family. Vermont's at-large representative, self-described socialist Bernie Sanders, is the clear favorite to win Jeffords' Senate seat, leaving his House seat up for grabs.

• Vermont's at-large congressional district — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described democratic socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jeffords. Vermont state Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch (D-Windsor County), the expected Democratic nominee, will face former Vermont Adjutant General Martha Rainville, Major General, USANG (ret.), who is the Republican nominee. Welch was helped when state Representative David Zuckerman decided not to wage a third-party campaign. Keith Stern, a businessman and zoning board member from Springfield, is running as an Independent. Jane Newton, a retired nurse, is running on the socialist Liberty Union line. Jerry Trudell[81] is running as an Independent. According to an October 26th Research 2000, Welch leads Rainville 51% to 41% with 6% undecided [82]. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic.

Virginia

Virginia U.S. House election, 2006 Since Richard Nixon was elected to the White House, Virginia's electoral votes have gone to the Republican Party. However, in recent years, Democrats have made gains within the Commonwealth, gaining seats in the Virginia General Assembly, won the last two gubernatorial elections, and even winning over voters in the burgeoning northern region of the state, which has started to make re-election for Republicans in this state, especially in the suburbs of Washington, D.C., a difficult task.

• Virginia's 2nd congressional district— In 2004, after representative Ed Schrock withdrew from seeking a third term, then-state Delegate Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the Republican ballot and was elected 55% to 45% against attorney and Marine Corps reservist David Ashe. Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phillip Kellam is the Democratic nominee. Kellam is arguably Virginia Beach's most popular Democrat, and the race is considered competitive. Kellam's support from controversial TV ads aired by Moveon.org have been met by editorial criticism from local newspapers, however. Kellam also has had to deal with an old assault convction being reported in local media An October 24th Mason-Dixon poll has Drake leading Kellam 46% to 44% with 10% undecided [83]. (For more details see Virginia 2nd congressional district election, 2006.) Cook Political Report rating: Republican Toss Up. CQPolitics rating: Leans Republican.

• Virginia's 10th congressional district- Incumbent Frank Wolf (R) was expected to be an easy reelection in Northern Virginia but an October 10th poll by R.T. Strategies shows this year's challenger, Judy Feder, to be within 5% at 42% to Wolf's 47%. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored.

• Virginia's 11th congressional district- Incumbent Tom Davis (R) has been a political fixture in Northern Virginia with experience dating back to the 1980s, when Davis served on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors; he was Chairman from 1991 until he was first elected in 1994 in the Republican Revolution. However, in 2004, he was reelected with only 60% of the vote against a relatively unknown Democrat (Ken Longmyer) who didn't canvass or phone voters and didn't hold fundraisers. That same year, George W. Bush won his district, which takes in portions of Fairfax and Prince William counties, with less than 50% of the vote over John Kerry, who won all of Fairfax County; the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. This year, Andrew Hurst, a Democratic attorney from the conservative stronghold of Springfield in Fairfax County who in the past has represented associates of President Clinton defending against independent counsel Ken Starr, is challenging Davis. CQPolitics rating: Safe Republican.

Washington

Main article: Washington United States House elections, 2006

Washington has historically been known as a Democratic stronghold, largely in part because of the more liberal-leaning western, coastal portions of the state as opposed to the largely conservative eastern and central portions. In 2006, Democrats look to make a major gain by unseating a one-time law enforcement figure in the Seattle area best known for his pursuit of the infamous "Green River Killer".

• Washington's 2nd congressional district- Incumbent Rick Larsen (D) was reelected in 2004 with nearly two-thirds of the vote. Larsen is a centrist New Democrat whose seats on the Armed Services and Transportation & Infrastructure committees are crucial to defense- and aerospace-related jobs that comprise a large number of his constituents in this politically competitive district. The Republicans have courted a credible challenger in Operation Desert Storm veteran Doug Roulstone, the commanding officer on the aircraft carrier U.S. John C. Stennis during the war. The GOP hopes his background will prove beneficial in the district, which is home to the Naval Air Station Whidbey Island and the Naval Station Everett. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Democratic.

• Washington's 5th congressional district— This district is the far eastern part of the state, running from the Canadian border in the north to the Oregon border in the south. It includes the city of Spokane. The one-term incumbent, Cathy McMorris (R), is facing rancher Dr.Peter J. Goldmark (D) a former Chairman of the Board of Washington State University and former Director of the state Department of Agriculture, who also has a Ph.D. in molecular biology from UC Berkeley. McMorris only has a 44% approval rating(the same as the President's) in this conservative district. The fifth district was held by a Democrat from 1965 until 1995, when Speaker Tom Foley was defeated by George Nethercutt in the Republican Revolution of 1994. In late August, CQPolitics changed its rating from: Safe Republican to the more competitive Republican Favored. [84] Cook Political Rating: Safe Republican.

• Washington's 8th congressional district— This district is at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area and includes the city of Bellevue. Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) won it 52% to 46% in 2004, but John Kerry carried the district by 51% to 48% over George W Bush. Former Microsoft product management employee Darcy Burner (D) is challenging the incumbent in 2006 and is very well-funded. An October 26th Majority-Watch poll has Burner leading Reichert 49% to 47% [85]. However, an October 30th SurveyUSA has Reichert leading Burner 51% to 45% [86]. Rep. Reichert accepted $20,000 from ARMPAC. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican. CQPolitics Rating: No Clear Favorite.

West Virginia

Although a traditionally Democratic state with a reputation for having a strong union membership as well as a popular Governor in Joe Manchin, George W. Bush won West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. However, two of its incumbent members of Congress, one Republican and one Democrat, are facing questionable re-election campaigns.

• West Virginia's 1st congressional district— For many years, Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) has won reelection without any difficulty, and often without major party opposition. But this year, he's come under scrutiny after it was revealed that non-profit groups who received federal earmarks sponsored by him were staffed by friends and that he may have financially benefitted from some of the earmarks. The national media has pointed out that his net worth expanded from some $630,000 to several million in a few years and his opponents are charging conflict of interest. The bad press caused his fellow Democrats to compel him to resign his position as ranking Democrat on the House Ethics Committee. He has a credible opponent in state Delegate Chris Wakim, a tavern owner and Persian Gulf War veteran. Nevertheless, shortly after the Mark Foley scandal, on October 11, AP reported that the National GOP was withdrawing most of their resources from this race.. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Democratic. CQPolitics rating: Democratic Favored.

• West Virginia's 2nd congressional district— Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) has been a popular vote getter in this Charleston based district, but in traditionally Democratic West Virginia, a Republican can't take reelection for granted. In fact, her margin in 2004 slipped somewhat against a second-tier opponent. Capito may face a backlash from conservative voters in the district because she is Pro-choice and is supported very strongly by The Wish List, A group of pro-choice Republican women. This year she faces attorney Mike Callaghan, a former state Democratic Party Chairman. CQPolitics rating: Republican Favored. Cook Political Rating: Safe Republican.

Wisconsin

Generally regarded as a swing state, Wisconsin's Republicans and Democrats have altered places at the top over the years, the latter party of which has had moderately more success. In 2004, John Kerry narrowly won this state, which has two notable Democratic Senators in Russ Feingold and Herb Kohl. A Republican Congressman from the northeastern portion of the state is pursuing the Governor's office against Democratic incumbent Jim Doyle, leaving his open seat up for grabs in this year's election.

• Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Green (R) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. State Assembly Speaker John Gard won the September 12th Republican primary as expected, in which he faced state Assemblywoman Terri McCormick. The Democratic nominee, wealthy allergist Steve Kagen, outpolled business consultant Jamie Wall as well as former De Pere Mayor and Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum after a very competitive primary. Democrats point out that this race in some ways resembles the 1996 House election here, which they won, but that year, it was Republicans who were divided. Cook Political Report rating: Lean Republican.

Wyoming

Wyoming is generally regarded as one of the most Republican states in the country, even though Democrats have had success at the state level, most notably in the gubernatorial election, a factor that could play out on its only congresswoman that received a smaller share of the vote than George W. Bush did in 2004.

• Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election. She also had a difficult primary that year. Her Democratic opponent this year will be Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner. An October 25th Aspen Media & Market Research poll has Cubin leading Trauner 44% to 40% [87]. Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican. In mid-August, CQPolitics changed their rating of this race from "Republican Favored" to the more competitive Leans Republican.

See also

• 2006 Senate election
• 2006 Gubernatorial elections
• 2008 Presidential election

External links

• 2006 Election Guide The New York Times
• Better World Links on the U.S. Midterm Elections 2006 > 1500 links
• Major Problems At Polls Feared, Dan Balz and Zachary A. Goldfarb, The Washington Post, September 17, 2006
• check on voter registration
• 2006 Election Projections Survey