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2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota

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United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
 
Nominee Heidi Heitkamp Kevin Cramer
Party Democratic–NPL Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Heidi Heitkamp
Democratic–NPL



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The 2018 United States Senate election in North Dakota will take place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Dakota, concurrent with other states' elections to the United States Senate and other federal, state, and local elections in North Dakota.

Incumbent Democratic-NPL Senator Heidi Heitkamp is running for reelection to a second term.[1] The candidate filing deadline was April 9, 2018 and the primary election was held on June 12, 2018.[2] U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer easily won the Republican primary to challenge Heitkamp, who easily won her primary as well.

Background

Many observers cite Senator Heitkamp as a vulnerable incumbent Democrat in 2018, as she balances between cooperating with her co-partisans in the U.S. Senate and pleasing her constituents in deeply-Republican North Dakota; President Donald Trump won in North Dakota by about 36 points.[3] The race is expected to be extremely competitive and some have projected it will be the most expensive race in North Dakota history.[4]

Democratic-NPL primary

The Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16 and 17, during which delegates voted to endorse Heidi Heitkamp for re-election. Although general election ballot access is actually controlled by a Primary Election to be held June 12, challenger Dustin Peyer did not challenge Heitkamp in the primary.[5]

Candidates

Endorsed

Withdrew

  • Dustin Peyer, firefighter and candidate for the State Senate in 2016[5]

Endorsements

Heidi Heitkamp
Federal officials
Local officials
  • Michael Brown, Mayor of Grand Forks[10]
  • Tim McLean, Casselton Fire Chief[11]
  • Arland Rasmussen, former West Fargo police chief[12]
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
  Heitkamp—100%
  Heitkamp—>90%
Democratic primary results[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent) 36,533 99.59
Democratic–NPL Write-ins 152 0.41
Total votes 36,685 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Cramer
Presidents of the United States
U.S. Vice Presidents
U.S. Senators
U.S. Governors
N.D State Legislature
Organizations
Tom Campbell (withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives

Polling

Results

Republican primary results by county
  Cramer >= 90%
  Cramer >= 80%
  Cramer >= 70%
Republican primary results[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kevin Cramer 60,998 87.72
Republican Thomas O'Neill 8,449 12.15
Republican Write-Ins 94 0.14
Total votes 69,541 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[58] Lean R October 19, 2018
Inside Elections[59] Tilt R September 28, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] Lean R October 11, 2018
Daily Kos[61] Lean R October 5, 2018
Fox News[62][a] Likely R October 10, 2018
CNN[63] Lean R October 9, 2018
RealClearPolitics[64] Lean R October 9, 2018
Notes

  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Heidi Heitkamp (D) $10,955,258 $5,864,023 $5,236,129
Kevin Cramer (R) $3,268,775 $1,227,668 $2,436,515
Source: Federal Election Commission[65]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Heidi
Heitkamp (D) 		Kevin
Cramer (R) 		Other Undecided
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 704 LV ± 3.5% 41% 53% 2% 3%
801 V ± 3.5% 41% 50% 3% 5%
Strategic Research Associates September 17–27, 2018 650 ± 3.8% 41% 51% – 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 701 LV ± 3.5% 44% 48% 2% 6%
804 V ± 3.5% 42% 47% 2% 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 457 ± 7.5% 47% 52% – 2%
Mason-Dixon June 13–15, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 44% 48% – 8%
Gravis Marketing February 21–24, 2018 385 ± 5.0% 43% 40% – 17%
The Tarrance Group (R-NRSC) February 18–20, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 44% 49% – 7%

Results

United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic–NPL Heidi Heitkamp (incumbent)
Republican Kevin Cramer
Majority
Turnout

References

  1. ^ a b Springer, Patrick (September 13, 2017). "U.S. Sen. Heitkamp announces run for re-election". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Forum Communications. Retrieved September 13, 2017.
  2. ^ "United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  3. ^ "Can Heitkamp Win Again in Red North Dakota? Many analysts believe the race will be between Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rep. Kevin Cramer (R). | RealClearPolitics". Retrieved 2017-07-20.
  4. ^ "2018 Senate race in N.D. could be the most expensive in state's history". KFYR-TV. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  5. ^ a b Easter, Sam (March 17, 2018). "Sen. Heidi Heitkamp wins Dem-NPL endorsement". The Bismarck Tribune. Lee Enterprises. Forum News Service. Retrieved April 17, 2018.
  6. ^ "Grand Forks Herald: "In Grand Forks visit, Joe Biden backs Heitkamp, blasts Trump and boosts everyday values"".
  7. ^ "Former ag secretary Vilsack endorses Heitkamp for Senate".
  8. ^ "Former Acting Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services, Mary Wakefield, Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate".
  9. ^ "Kirsten Gillibrand on Twitter". Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  10. ^ "Grand Forks Mayor Mike Brown Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for Senate".
  11. ^ "New Heitkamp ad puts work done for first responders in the spotlight".
  12. ^ "Bizarro World: Democratic Senate Incumbent Heidi Heitkamp Uses Self-Described Trump Voter to Defend Her Record on Border Security".
  13. ^ "AFGE | AFGE Endorses Sen. Heidi Heitkamp for Reelection". www.afge.org. American Federation of Government Employees. August 22, 2018.
  14. ^ Tiffany Muller (May 3, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Bob Casey, Heidi Heitkamp and Sheldon Whitehouse for U.S. Senate". End Citizens United.
  15. ^ "Heidi Heitkamp – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  16. ^ "2018 Senate Endorsees - JStreet".
  17. ^ "Heidi Heitkamp - Los Angeles Women's Political Action Committee". Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  18. ^ "National Association of Home Builders Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate".
  19. ^ "Candidates We Endorse and Support - NCPSSM". www.ncpssm.org. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  20. ^ "NEA Fund - Recommended Candidates". www.neafund.org.
  21. ^ "Farmers Union PAC Endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate" (Press release). Fargo: Heidi for Senate. September 11, 2018. Retrieved 2018-09-19.
  22. ^ "North Dakota AFL-CIO endorses Heidi Heitkamp for U.S. Senate".
  23. ^ "North Dakota United Highlights Heidi Heitkamp's Support Among North Dakota Teachers and Public Employees" (Press release). Fargo: Heidi for Senate. September 18, 2018. Retrieved 2018-09-19.
  24. ^ "National Border Patrol Council Reveals Why It Endorsed Heidi..." Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  25. ^ "United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018".
  26. ^ Berger, Judson (February 15, 2018). "GOP Rep. Cramer to challenge Dem Heitkamp for Senate seat, reversing course". Fox News.
  27. ^ "Air Force vet, anti-immigration candidate jumps into ND U.S..." INFORUM. Retrieved 2018-05-02.
  28. ^ Springer, Patrick (August 16, 2017). "North Dakota Republican announces he's running for Heitkamp's seat". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
  29. ^ "Tom Campbell announces run for Congress". KX News. February 16, 2018. Retrieved February 16, 2018.
  30. ^ a b Tom Campbell [@tomfornd] (February 16, 2018). "That's why I am officially endorsing my friend Congressman Kevin Cramer in his Senate race against Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  31. ^ Evans, Bo (February 13, 2018). "Emineth withdraws from Senate race". KFYR-TV. Retrieved February 13, 2018.
  32. ^ "2018 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
  33. ^ Hageman, John (January 3, 2018). "Rick Becker, Bismarck state legislator, rules out run for Congress". The Dickinson Press.
  34. ^ Morken, Mike (January 11, 2018). "Rick Berg "not running" for U.S. Senate". Valley News Live. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
  35. ^ a b c d Hageman, John (December 1, 2017). "List of potential ND GOP Senate candidates narrows as CEO declines to run". West Fargo Pioneer.
  36. ^ Port, Rob (September 7, 2017). "Border States Electric CEO Tammy Miller considering challenging Heitkamp for Senate seat". Say Anything.
  37. ^ Port, Rob (July 5, 2017). "NDGOP Recruiting SBHE President Kathy Neset for Possible Senate Run". Say Anything. Retrieved August 16, 2017.
  38. ^ a b Hageman, John (January 12, 2018). "Fedorchak doesn't rule out challenging Heitkamp for U.S. Senate seat". wdaz.com.
  39. ^ Robillard, Kevin (September 18, 2017). "News: @club4growth touting Treasurer Kelly Schmidt as candidate against Heitkamp in #NDSen. She's up 48-44 in poll:". Twitter.
  40. ^ Byrnes, Jesse (11 September 2018). "George W. Bush to hit fundraising circuit for GOP candidates". Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  41. ^ "Kevin Cramer". www.facebook.com. Retrieved 10 October 2018.
  42. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to @KevinCramer on his huge win in North Dakota. We need Kevin in the Senate, and I strongly endorse him. Heidi voted NO on our Tax Cuts, and always will vote no when we need her. Kevin is strong on Crime & Borders, big on Cutting Taxes!". Twitter.
  43. ^ "Vice President Pence to campaign for Cramer in Fargo". kfgo.com. March 27, 2018.
  44. ^ Robert Lauf. "Senator Hoeven joins in supporting @kevincramer for Senate #NDPol". Twitter.
  45. ^ Bluestein, Greg (August 24, 2018). "David Perdue aims to shore up embattled Senate candidates". Politically Georgia.
  46. ^ Doug Burgum. "Excited to support @KevinCramer in his run for U.S. Senate. #NDpol #NDsen". Twitter.
  47. ^ "ACU Endorses Kevin Cramer". American Conservative Union.
  48. ^ "BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of North Dakota Endorses Cramer, Armstrong". Family Policy Alliance. July 25, 2018.
  49. ^ "Small Business Endorses Congressman Kevin Cramer for the U.S. Senate". NFIB. August 14, 2018.
  50. ^ a b "Right to Life groups back Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate over Heidi Heitkamp". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  51. ^ Kevin Cramer. "Grateful to accept the endorsement of the NDFB this afternoon. I will continue to fight for the interests of North Dakota producers in the United States Senate. #NDSen #FarmersForCramer". Twitter.
  52. ^ "Republican Jewish Coalition launches first wave of midterm endorsements". NBCNews.com. July 23, 2018.
  53. ^ "SBA List Candidate Fund Endorses Kevin Cramer for U.S. Senate in ND". Susan B. Anthony List. September 19, 2018.
  54. ^ "NRA Endorses Cramer for U.S. Senate in North Dakota". NRA-ILA. October 8, 2018.
  55. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah Port, Rob (August 22, 2017). "Self-Described "Outsider" Senate Candidate Touts 34 Endorsements From the Good Old Boys Club". Say Anything. Retrieved August 24, 2017.
  56. ^ Tom Campbell. "BREAKING: Rich Wardner, North Dakota Senate Majority Leader, Endorses Tom Campbell for U.S. Senate! #NDPol #NDSen". Twitter.
  57. ^ "Ballotpedia, United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2018".
  58. ^ "2018 Senate Race ratings | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  59. ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  60. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball  » 2018 Senate". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2018-08-18.
  61. ^ "Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  62. ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  63. ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  64. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  65. ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved August 31, 2018.
Official campaign websites
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