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2018 New York gubernatorial election

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New York gubernatorial election, 2018
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout50.04%
 
Nominee Andrew Cuomo Marc Molinaro
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance
Parties
Parties
Running mate Kathy Hochul Julie Killian
Popular vote 3,353,495 2,089,228
Percentage 57.90% 36.07%
Governor before election

Andrew Cuomo
Democratic

Elected Governor

Andrew Cuomo
Democratic

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The 2018 New York gubernatorial election occurred on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican Marcus Molinaro and several minor party candidates.

On November 15, 2016, Cuomo announced his intention to seek a third term in office.[1] On September 13, 2018, Cuomo defeated actress and activist Cynthia Nixon in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.[2] Cuomo's running mate, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, defeated New York City Councilmember Jumaane Williams in the Democratic primary.[3] Cuomo and Hochul also ran on the ballot lines of the Independence Party and the Women's Equality Party; after Nixon and Williams withdrew from the race in October, Cuomo and Hochul received the nomination of the Working Families Party as well.

Dutchess County Executive and former New York State Assemblymember Marcus Molinaro was the Republican, Conservative, and Reform Party candidate. Molinaro's running mate was former Rye City Councilmember Julie Killian. Third-party gubernatorial candidates appearing on the general election ballot included: Howie Hawkins, repeat candidate for the Green Party; former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, running on the newly-created Serve America Movement line; and Larry Sharpe of the Libertarian Party, who was the runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian primary contest for vice president.

Background

Incumbent Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo decided to seek re-election in 2014 to a second term in office. Governor Cuomo defeated Zephyr Teachout in a primary election, 63% to 33%, and went on to defeat the Republican nominee, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, 54% to 40%, in the general election.

New York gubernatorial elections operate on a split primary system: governor and lieutenant governor candidates in each party run in separate primary elections. In the general election, candidates are chosen as unified governor/lieutenant governor tickets. New York recognizes electoral fusion; candidates can count the votes they receive on all party lines toward their overall vote total, but only if the governor and lieutenant governor match on all of the parties (thus, in theory, it is possible for a gubernatorial candidate to receive the most votes and still lose if there were different lieutenant governors on each party line; in practice, the third parties used for electoral fusion purposes try to match their respective tickets and reassign other candidates as dummy candidates in less important races to allow the tickets to be unified).

The results of the gubernatorial election will also determine ballot access and ballot order for all elections in New York through 2022. To qualify as a political party in New York for the next four years, the party's gubernatorial candidate must receive 50,000 votes or more in this election, with each party listed in descending order from top to bottom based on the votes each party line receives.

The last Republican to win a gubernatorial election in New York was George Pataki in 2002 (1995 to 2006).[4]

Democratic primary

On May 23, 2018, incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo secured the nomination of the Democratic Party at the state convention after winning support from more than 95% of the state delegates.[5] No other candidates qualified for the primary ballot at the convention, as they all failed to meet the required 25% delegate threshold.[5] Cynthia Nixon afterwards filed a petition.[6] By July 12, her petition had 65,000 signatures, which is more than four times the 15,000 required to force a primary election.[7]

Candidates

Nominee

Lost nomination
Actress and activist Cynthia Nixon sought the Democratic Party's gubernatorial nomination in 2018, but was defeated by incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

Cynthia Nixon (defeated)
Local and state politicians (current and former)
Individuals
Organizations
Media

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo 		Cynthia
Nixon 		Other Undecided
Siena College September 4–7, 2018 509 ± 4.3% 63% 22% 4% 11%
Siena College July 22–26, 2018 630 ± 3.9% 60% 29% 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University July 12–16, 2018 415 ± 6.2% 59% 23% 2% 15%
Zogby Analytics June 27 – July 3, 2018 – – 63% 22% – 15%
Siena College June 4–7, 2018 – – 61% 26% 0% 11%
Quinnipiac University April 26 – May 1, 2018 473 ± 5.7% 50% 28% – 22%
Siena College April 8–12, 2018 – – 58% 27% 5% 11%
Marist College April 3–9, 2018 364 ± 6.0% 68% 21% – 11%
Remington (R-Big Dog Strategies) April 7–8, 2018 2,038 ± 2.2% 60% 20% – 19%
Siena College March 11–16, 2018 363 ± 4.0% 66% 19% 1% 9%
Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andrew Cuomo (incumbent) 978,168 65.6%
Democratic Cynthia Nixon 512,585 34.4%
Total votes 1,490,753 100%

Debates and forums

  • Hofstra University - August 29, 2018 - WCBS-TV[70]

Lieutenant Governor

Nominee

Lost nomination
Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kathy Hochul (incumbent) 733,591 53.3%
Democratic Jumaane Williams 641,633 46.7%
Total votes 1,375,224 100%

Republican primary

On May 23, 2018, the party unanimously nominated Marcus Molinaro as its candidate for Governor of New York at its state convention.[71] No challengers attempted to petition onto the primary ballot, so no Republican primary took place.

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

John DeFrancisco (withdrew)
Federal politicians
State Legislators
Municipal leaders
Municipal legislator
Organizations
Brian Kolb (withdrew)
State legislators
Municipal leaders
Organizations

Polling

Third-party candidates and independent candidates

Third parties with automatic ballot access

In addition to the Democratic and Republican Parties, six other political parties will have automatic ballot access; all six have chosen to exercise it. In order of ballot appearance, those parties are:

Independent candidates and third parties without automatic ballot access

Any candidate not among the eight qualified New York political parties (Democratic, Republican, Conservative, Green, Working Families, Independence, Women's Equality or Reform) must submit petitions to gain ballot access. Such candidates do not face primary elections. Third parties can secure automatic ballot access in all state and federal elections through the 2022 election if their respective gubernatorial candidates receive at least 50,000 votes in the 2018 general election.

Libertarian Party

Business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party Vice Presidential Primary Larry Sharpe is running on the Libertarian Party line

On July 12, 2017, Larry Sharpe, business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary, officially announced that he would run for Governor of New York in 2018. Sharpe was the first person to announce his candidacy to run against incumbent Governor Andrew Cuomo.[119][120] On August 19, 2018, the Libertarian Party announced it had collected over 30,000 signatures to place its ticket onto the November ballot.[121] Sharpe's petitions survived a petition challenge.[122]

  • Nominee: Larry Sharpe, business consultant and runner-up in the 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential primary[123][124]
    • Running mate: Andrew Hollister, candidate for Rochester City Council in 2017[120]

Serve America Movement

On June 18, 2018, former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, after expressing informal interest in the Working Families and Reform nominations,[125] entered the gubernatorial race as a third-party candidate.[126] Miner "plans to run under the banner of an upstart new group, the Serve America Movement, which calls itself SAM (coincidentally sharing Miner's initials), formed by people disaffected by the existing party structure after the 2016 elections. She will be the group’s first candidate." Miner circulated designating petitions to create a SAM Party in New York, and on August 21, her campaign announced that it had submitted over 40,000 petition signatures.[127] Miner's submitted petitions far exceeded the 15,000 required to qualify for the November ballot.[128] Persons tied to the Cuomo campaign, after reviewing the petitions, failed to find enough specific objections to challenge their validity.[129]

Rent Is Too Damn High Party (disqualified)

Jimmy McMillan, the party's founder and figurehead indicated on the party Web site that he would make another attempt at the office.[131] He submitted petitions on August 21, 2018 with himself as the gubernatorial nominee and Christialle Felix as his running mate; as the full party name is too long to fit on the ballot, it is shortened to "Rent Too Damn High" (as opposed to the previous election in which it was submitted as "Rent Is 2 Damn High").[132] McMillan's petitions face specific challenges that the Board of Elections was still reviewing as of September 4.[122] When the ballot order was released later that month, McMillan and the Rent Is Too Damn High Party had been disqualified and removed from the ballot.[133] McMillan filed a lawsuit against the state board of elections hoping to force his way back onto the November ballot.[134]

Primary election

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 10, 2018
Candidate Amount raised
Andrew Cuomo $13,778,685.04
Marcus Molinaro $1,914,828.14
Larry Sharpe $449,515.19
Stephanie Miner $725,060.93
Howie Hawkins $189,918.94
Source: New York State Board of Elections[135]

General election

Debates

Host
network 		Date Link(s) Participants
Andrew
Cuomo (D) 		Marcus
Molinaro (R) 		Larry
Sharpe (L) 		Howie
Hawkins (G) 		Stephanie
Miner (SAM)
WCBS-TV October 23, 2018 [136] Participant Participant Non-invitee Non-invitee Non-invitee
College of St. Rose November 1, 2018 [137] Absentee Participant Participant Participant Participant

Endorsements

Andrew Cuomo (D)
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
N.Y. Lieutenant Governor
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local and state politicians
Organizations
Media
Individuals
Marcus Molinaro (R)
U.S. Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Legislators
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Larry Sharpe (L)
U.S. Governors
U.S. municipal legislators
Other politicians
Television and radio personalities
Commentators, writers, and columnists
Musicians and artists
Athletes and sports figures
Social and political activists
  • Matthew Kolken, immigration lawyer and elected member of the AILA Board of Directors[221]
Organizations
Howie Hawkins (G)
Local politicians (former)
Individuals
  • Jimmy Dore, stand-up comedian and political commentator for hosting The Jimmy Dore Show and co-hosting The Aggressive Progressives on Young Turks[229][230]
Stephanie Miner (SAM)
Newspapers
  • Adirondack Daily Enterprise[231]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[232] Solid D August 30, 2018
The Washington Post[233] Safe D October 16, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[234] Solid D October 17, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[235] Solid D August 31, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[236] Safe D August 29, 2018
Real Clear Politics[237] Safe D October 9, 2018
Daily Kos[238] Safe D August 13, 2018
Fox News[239][a] Likely D October 9, 2018
Politico[240] Solid D October 9, 2018
Governing[241] Likely D October 2, 2018
Notes

  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Cuomo
(D) 		Marcus
Molinaro
(R) 		Stephanie
Miner
(SAM) 		Howie
Hawkins
(G) 		Larry
Sharpe
(L) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 37% – – – 3% 6%
Siena College October 28 – November 1, 2018 641 ± 3.9% 49% 36% 2% 2% 3% 0% 7%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2018 852 ± 4.4% 58% 35% – – – 2% 5%
Gravis Marketing (L-Sharpe) October 4–8, 2018 783 ± 3.5% 48% 25% 8% 6% 13% – –
Siena College September 20–27, 2018 701 ± 3.9% 56% 38% – – – 0% 4%
Liberty Opinion Research (R-Reform Party) August 29–30, 2018 2,783 ± 1.9% 46% 43% – – – – 11%
Quinnipiac University July 12–16, 2018 934 ± 4.1% 57% 31% – – – 0% 8%
Zogby Analytics June 27 – July 3, 2018 708 ± 3.7% 50% 27% 10% 4% – – 9%
49% 27% 11% – – – 12%
52% 32% – – – – 15%
Siena College June 4–7, 2018 745 ± 3.7% 56% 37% – – – 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University April 26 – May 1, 2018 1,076 ± 3.7% 57% 26% – – – 2% 12%
Siena College April 8–12, 2018 692 ± 4.3% 57% 31% – – – 0% 9%
Siena College March 11–16, 2018 772 ± 4.0% 57% 29% – – – 0% 11%

Results

New York gubernatorial election, 2018[242]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andrew Cuomo 3,158,459 54.53
Working Families Andrew Cuomo 106,008 1.83
Independence Andrew Cuomo 63,518 1.10
Women's Equality Andrew Cuomo 25,510 0.44
Total Andrew Cuomo/Kathy Hochul (incumbent) 3,353,495 57.90
Republican Marcus Molinaro 1,824,581 31.50
Conservative Marcus Molinaro 238,578 4.12
Reform Marcus Molinaro 26,069 .45
Total Marcus Molinaro/Julie Killian 2,089,228 36.07
Green Howie Hawkins/Jia Lee 95,716 1.65
Libertarian Larry Sharpe/Andrew Hollister 90,816 1.57
SAM Stephanie Miner/Michael Volpe 51,367 .89
Majority 1,264,267 21.83
Total votes 5,792,005 100

Aftermath

Andrew Cuomo easily won a third term as New York Governor, defeating his four opponents handily. His win was largely due to increased voter turnout; in raw numbers, his vote total rose 62% compared to the 2014 election. He swept all of the counties in downstate New York, turning Suffolk County on Long Island and upstate counties Monroe and Ulster back into his favor after losing those counties in 2014. Other than those, the only other upstate counties to vote for Cuomo were the urban counties of Erie, Onondaga, and Albany and the traditionally progressive Tompkins County.

Marcus Molinaro also gained votes compared to his Republican predecessor, Rob Astorino, but by a smaller amount: he gained 36% more votes than Astorino and flipped Franklin, Clinton, Essex and Broome Counties in his favor after each voted for Cuomo in 2014.

Howie Hawkins retained ballot access for the Green Party for four more years (albeit falling to Line E while the Working Families line rose to Line D).[243] Stephanie Miner narrowly surpassed the 50,000-vote threshold to allow the Serve America Movement ballot access, on Line H.[244] The Libertarian Party of New York achieved ballot access with Larry Sharpe's 90,816 votes, the first time in the over 40-year history of the party that it has achieved the feat despite several previous efforts; Sharpe performed most strongly in the rural counties upstate, finishing with over 10% of the vote in Schuyler County and at or near 5% in most others.[245] The Reform Party of New York State and Women's Equality Party both fell below the threshold of 50,000 votes and have lost automatic ballot access, while the Independence Party, while maintaining ballot access, continued a years-long decline, landing on Line G (down from a peak of Line C prior to 2010).

References

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  161. ^ George E. Pataki. "Friends the future of the state we love is at great risk. That is why I am asking all my friends and supporters to please chip in today to help Marc Molinaro to become our next Governor". Facebook.
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  171. ^ Marc Molinaro. ""Marc Molinaro is a leader who has the experience to move New York forward. As a former Mayor, Assemblyman and County Executive he knows how to lower taxes and create jobs..." I am honored to receive the endorsement of my friend and Oneida County Executive @AJPicenteJr". Twitter.
  172. ^ Marc Molinaro. "Thank you, Ann, for your endorsement! I am proud to have an extensive coalition of bi-partisan support. TOGETHER we will win on Tuesday, November 6th. #BelieveAgain #MolinaroForNY #TakeBackOurState". Twitter.
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  176. ^ Eric Ulrich. "Reject the status Cuomo. Vote @marcmolinaro for Governor! #ElectionDay #GetOutAndVote". Twitter.
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Official campaign websites
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