2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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 County results Shaheen: 40-50% 50–60% Sununu: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in New Hampshire |
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The United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 election. Shaheen's win ended 30 years of Republican control of this Senate seat.
Background
New Hampshire has always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many statewide offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council (a five-member Lt. Gov.-like board), and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911).[1] The popularity of the governor could be a factor in the election to Sununu's detriment, yet such speculation is premature.[2] Also, though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Jeanne Shaheen, former governor
- Raymond Stebbins, attorney
Campaign
Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett, (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.[3]
Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.
The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins.[4]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen | 43,968 | 88.5% | ||
| Democratic | Raymond Stebbins | 5,281 | 10.6% | ||
| write-ins | 407 | 0.8% | |||
| Turnout | 49,656 | ||||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Tom Alciere, former state representative[5][6]
- John E. Sununu, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Sununu | 60,852 | 88.7% | ||
| Republican | Tom Alciere | 7,084 | 10.3% | ||
| write-ins | 685 | 1.0% | |||
| Turnout | 68,621 | ||||
General election
Candidates
- Ken Blevens (L)
- Jeanne Shaheen (D), former governor
- John E. Sununu (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
Campaign
A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating.[7] A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.[8]
A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%.[9] Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53%, unfavorable by 31% and neutral or undecided by 15%.[10]
Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.
Predictions
Political analyst Chuck Todd said that Sununu was one of the most endangered incumbents, due largely to his continuing support of the President's Iraq policy.[11] Nonpartisan newsletter Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, following Jeanne Shaheen's entrance into the race, listed the race as "Leans Democratic."[12] CQ Politics also rated the seat as "Leans Democratic".
Polling
| Source | Date | John Sununu (R) |
Jeanne Shaheen (D) |
Ken Blevens (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | March 29, 2007 | 34% | 44% | –– | 22% |
| American Research Group | June 2007 | 29% | 57% | –– | 14% |
| Research 2000 | July 2007 | 34% | 56% | –– | 10% |
| WMUR-CNN | July 2007 | 38% | 54% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 16, 2007 | 43% | 48% | –– | 9% |
| American Research Group | September 18, 2007 | 41% | 46% | –– | 13% |
| WMUR-CNN | September 2007 | 38% | 54% | –– | 7% |
| SurveyUSA | November 5, 2007 | 42% | 53% | –– | 5% |
| American Research Group | December 20, 2007 | 52% | 41% | –– | 7% |
| Granite State Poll | February 11, 2008 | 37% | 54% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 13, 2008 | 41% | 49% | –– | –– |
| American Research Group | March 20, 2008 | 33% | 47% | –– | 20% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 21, 2008 | 41% | 49% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 23, 2008 | 43% | 50% | –– | –– |
| American Research Group | June 18, 2008 | 40% | 54% | –– | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 20, 2008 | 39% | 53% | –– | –– |
| Granite State Poll | July 20, 2008 | 42% | 46% | –– | 10% |
| American Research Group | July 19, 2008 | 36% | 58% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 23, 2008 | 45% | 51% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 19, 2008 | 43% | 52% | –– | –– |
| American Research Group | August 18, 2008, 2008 | 41% | 52% | –– | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | September 3, 2008 | 44% | 46% | 3% | 5% |
| American Research Group | September 13, 2008 | 40% | 52% | –– | 8% |
| Granite State Poll | September 14, 2008 | 44% | 48% | –– | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 23, 2008 | 52% | 45% | 1% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 1, 2008 | 45% | 50% | 1% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 23, 2008 | 46% | 52% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 30, 2008 | 44% | 52% | –– | –– |
| Survey USA | October 30, 2008 | 40% | 53% | 6% | 2% |
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeanne Shaheen (D) | $8,273,501.00 | $8,225,580.00 | $47,920.00 | $120,630.00 |
| John Sununu (R) | $8,879,307.00 | $8,868,017.00 | $104,187.00 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[13] | ||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jeanne Shaheen | 358,438 | 51.6% | +5.2% | |
| Republican | John Sununu (incumbent) | 314,403 | 45.3% | −5.5% | |
| Libertarian | Ken Blevens | 21,516 | 3.1% | +0.9% | |
| Majority | 44,035 | ||||
| Turnout | 694,357 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | ||||
References
- ^ Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature
- ^ "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". Real Clear Politics. July 30, 2007. Retrieved July 30, 2007.[dead link]
- ^ Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race[permanent dead link] WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007
- ^ Democratic Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
- ^ Republican Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
- ^ Republican Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
- ^ Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006
- ^ Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007
- ^ [1]
- ^ [2]
- ^ Entry 2008 Race Tracker, New Hampshire, accessed June 30, 2007 Archived March 15, 2007, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, New Hampshire Senate Race, 2008
- ^ "New Hampshire 2008 Senate race fundraising".
External links
- Election Division from the New Hampshire Secretary of State
- U.S. Congress candidates for New Hampshire at Project Vote Smart
- New Hampshire, U.S. Senate CQ Politics
- New Hampshire U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- New Hampshire U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
- Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
- Sununu (R-i) vs Shaheen (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites
- John Sununu, Republican nominee
- Jay Buckey, withdrawn
- Jeanne Shaheen, Democratic nominee
- anti-Sununu website from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee
- anti-Shaheen website from the National Republican Senatorial Committee