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Opinion polling for the 2021 Canadian federal election

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This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2019 Canadian federal election leading up to the 44th Canadian federal election, scheduled to take place on or before October 16, 2023.[1]

Pre-campaign period

Polling firm Last date
of polling[1] 		Link CPC LPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Margin
of error[2] 		Sample
size[3] 		Polling method[4] Lead
Leger January 7, 2020 PDF 31 34 18 7 8 2 ±2.49 pp 1,554 online 3
Abacus Data December 16, 2019 HTML
Twitter		 30 33 18 7 8 2 ±2.1 pp 1,500 online 3
Angus Reid December 15, 2019 PDF 33 30 19 8 7 ±2.0 pp 2,011 online 3
Andrew Scheer announces his resignation as the Leader of the Official Opposition (December 12, 2019)
EKOS December 10, 2019 PDF 29.6 31.1 16.8 5.8 9.8 4.2 ±2.0 pp 2,339 online 1.5
Leger November 25, 2019 PDF 30 32 19 7 7 3 ±1.78 pp 3,040 online 2
Nanos Research November 22, 2019 HTML 30.9 33.6 17.2 9.2 ±3.1 pp 1,000 (3/4) telephone (rolling) 2.7
Jo-Ann Roberts is named interim leader of the Green Party (November 4, 2019)
Nanos Research November 1, 2019 HTML 32.5 31.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 telephone (rolling) 1.4
2019 Election[5] October 21, 2019 HTML 34.4 33.1 15.9 7.7 6.5 1.6 1.3

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on who would make the best Prime Minister:

October 2019–present

Polling firm Last date

of polling

Link Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-François Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure Margin
of error[1] 		Lead
Nanos Research January 3, 2020 PDF 32.2 21.1 15.1 3.3 6.4 1.7 20.1 ±3.1 pp 11.1
Nanos Research December 27, 2019 PDF 34.4 21.1 14.4 3.1 5.3 2.2 19.4 ±3.1 pp 13.3
Nanos Research December 20, 2019 PDF 36.0 21.0 15.9 2.8 6.4 1.7 16.2 ±3.1 pp 15.0
Nanos Research December 13, 2019 PDF 35.8 21.9 16.1 2.6 7.0 1.5 15.3 ±3.1 pp 13.9
Nanos Research December 6, 2019 PDF 36.6 22.0 15.4 3.1 7.0 1.4 14.6 ±3.1 pp 14.6
Nanos Research November 29, 2019 PDF 38.2 21.5 15.1 2.7 7.4 1.1 14.0 ±3.1 pp 16.7
Nanos Research November 22, 2019 PDF 35.1 22.0 15.4 3.1 7.0 2.1 15.3 ±3.1 pp 13.1
Nanos Research November 15, 2019 PDF 32.3 23.9 17.8 3.9 5.8 1.8 13.5 ±3.1 pp 8.4
Nanos Research November 8, 2019 PDF 31.1 24.9 19.0 3.4 6.2 2.0 13.5 ±3.1 pp 6.2
Nanos Research November 1, 2019 PDF 30.0 27.0 17.3 3.4 7.2 1.6 13.6 ±3.1 pp 3.0

See also

Notes

1 Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
2 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
3 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
4 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
5 While the Conservative Party of Canada received a greater share of the popular vote in the 2019 election, the Liberal Party of Canada won a greater number of seats.

References

  1. ^ "The battle to keep this country together will be harder in some provinces than others". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. October 27, 2019.
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