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Climate change in Mexico

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Climate change in Mexico has impacted agriculture [1] and migration,[2][3] as well as "water, health, air pollution, traffic disruption from floods, [and] housing vulnerability to landslides."[4] Mexico is considered a leader in climate mitigation and climate adaptation.[5][6][7][8][9] Climate change impacts are especially severe in Mexico City due to increases in air pollution.[10][clarification needed]

Climate projections

Climate change models, while highly variable, have projected an increase in the variation and intensity of precipitation (i.e., floods and droughts) in Mexico. The largest changes in precipitation are anticipated to occur during the summer months, especially in southern Mexico, with a potential decrease of 13-15 percent.[11][12] Furthermore, temperature increases of 1.5-2 °C relative to baseline are expected by 2035-2055.[11] As such, scientists have classified the entire Central American region as a “climate change hot-spot”[13] and “highly vulnerable” to climate change[14][15]

Climate Change and Agriculture

General Impacts

Climate change is a critical concern in Mexico, particularly in relation to agriculture. Drying and warming trends are altering and shifting climatic zones and agricultural environments worldwide,[16][17] and Mexico is no exception.[16] Exact predictions are difficult to make due to the complexity of the factors involved and the impacts will be highly region-specific; however, there is a general consensus that the productivity of crops and livestock will decline.[18] Scientists also expect that certain insect pests and plant pathogens will survive and reproduce more often due to warming temperatures and are likely to invade new regions.[19] Highland farmers and the rural poor are especially vulnerable to these climatic shifts.[16] Decreased precipitation will place higher burdens on irrigated agriculture, on which much of the country’s exported, economically-important crops rely.[20] Conversely, more intense rainfall events will damage crop production. Higher temperatures are expected to increase evapotranspiration rates, leading to drying trends in soil moisture.[20]

"Wheat production for Mexico is expected to decline by 12% under the future RCP 8.5 climate change scenario with additional losses of 7 to 18% because of O3 impact," according to a July 2019 article.[21] In the Yucatán Peninsula, the rise in temperature is affecting crop production.[1] Extreme heat can negatively affect crops by slowing down growth and increasing moisture loss in the soil.[22] Over the past 15 years until 2010, a Mayan village in Cancun, Tabi, experienced a 50-60% reduction in crop yield. Additionally, climate change is affecting rainfall patterns. Farmers are finding it more difficult to predict rainfall, which if predicted wrong can waste "an entire season's worth of seeds".[23]

Economic Insecurity

Climate change has caused many people in Mexico who depend on agriculture for employment to experience economic insecurity. In 2017, roughly seven million people were employed in the agricultural sector in Mexico.[24] Moreover, many Mexican smallholder farmers continue to depend on rain-fed agriculture for their subsistence and livelihoods.[20] Farmers respond to climate change in varying ways: changing their agricultural practices, adjusting their livelihood strategies, or exiting agriculture altogether.[16]

Global Impacts

There is evidence to suggest that declining agricultural conditions from climate change in Mexico directly relates to migration to the United States.[25][14] Hence climate change threatens not only food and economic security in Mexico, but is also tied to much larger, global processes. In 2017, the United States imported $13.3 billion of fruits and vegetables from Mexico.[24] Declining crop yields in Mexico due to climate change will ultimately impact global trade networks, national economies, and food security in countries that are, perhaps, geographically distant; yet through free-trade policies such as NAFTA and USMCA, have become highly dependent on Mexican agriculture.

Maize, a key component of Mexican agriculture, is threatened due to temperature and precipitation fluxes from climate change

Impacts on Specific Exports/Foods

Maize

Maize is of central importance to Mexican agriculture, occupying the largest cultivated area in the country.[16] It is a critical component of the diets and nutritional intake of both the urban and rural populations. A large number of smallholder farmers in Mexico depend on rain-fed maize for their livelihoods, leaving these farmers particularly vulnerable to temperature and precipitation fluxes from climate change.[16]

Furthermore, Mexico (Mesoamerica more generally) is the center of origin for maize. Mexico alone has 59 unique maize landraces recorded[26] and thousands of regionally adapted maize varieties. Maize diversity in Mexico continues to be maintained and managed by smallholder farmers who participate in traditional seed sharing networks. An estimated 18 percent of maize cultivation in Mexico takes place in the highlands, and maize agro-climates in the highland regions are most at risk from climate change.[16] Many scientists are concerned about the effects climate change poses on maize genetic diversity and the negative impacts that continued maize germplasm loss will have, not only on Mexican agriculture, but worldwide, as maize is the most widely grown crop in the world.[26] Bellon et al. (2011) discuss the need to strengthen and broaden traditional seed networks in Mexico to support farmers and the genetic integrity of maize in light of climate change; thus, extending the geographic ranges of seed networks to link farmers in the highlands, for example, with farmers in mid-altitude environments.[16]

Coffee

Variable and extreme climatic events such as droughts, floods, and excessive heat will have – and is already having - important impacts on both the quality and overall production of coffee in Mexico.[14] In Mexico and Central America more broadly, some 8.5 million people rely on coffee production for their livelihoods.[12] In 2012, higher than average temperatures and high-altitude rains led to an outbreak of coffee leaf rust, affecting roughly 50 percent of the coffee crop in Central America.[12] This resulted in $500 million in crop damages to the region and caused many people in the region to lose their livelihoods.[12] Regional studies in Mexico have projected that coffee growing could be unviable by the end of the decade.[14] Responses will need to occur both in the social and ecological realms and across multiple scales. Key strategies include crop diversification and the implementation of more resilient coffee production systems. Farmer education, access to information, health, and equity factors all play important roles in adaptation responses as well.[14][12] Yet, there are also large-scale, global factors at play, such as international trade markets, which are often volatile, that are beyond farmers’ control. A handful of coffee companies, NGOs, and agencies have initiated training and education programs for Mexican farmers to better respond to climate change.[12]

Ecological Responses to Climate Change

Changes in cloud forest distributions as a result of climate change

Mountain cloud forests, especially in the Michoacán, act as dispersal corridors for many species that travel between habitats.[27] These forests are highly subject to human disturbances such as mining and deforestation.[27] This is important because the distribution of these forests is an integral factor of landscape connectivity.[27] As the distribution of these forests changes due to climate effects, landscape connectivity is also affected.[27] An evaluation of this property of connectivity of the mountain cloud forests of Michoacán was carried out by researchers in order to determine which areas would best benefit from greater conservation efforts.[27]

Impacts on Animals

Butterflies

Warming temperatures and land-use change are contributing to the movement of butterfly distributions up the Sierra de Juarez mountain range in Oaxaca, Mexico.[28] In 2016, research was conducted to determine which butterfly species were moving either up or down the mountain range.[28] The researchers determined that more species were moving upward than were moving downward.[28] The researchers also concluded that, as a result of distribution changes, there was a greater abundance of generalist butterfly species in lowlands.[28]

Mexican Bats

Mexican Free-Tailed Bats: As a result of climate change, bat ranges in Mexico are shifting due to declining habitat suitability

Bat distributions and ranges in Mexico are expected to shift as a result of changes in climate and increased land-use change.[29] As an indicator species, bats can provide researchers useful information in regard to the degree and extent of climate related species responses.[29] Researchers analyzed previous records of bat occurrence across Mexico and used the derived data to project how bat species may respond to land-use change and climate effects.[29] Results showed that habitat suitability for over half of 130 bat species is expected to decrease under current climate trends.[29] The results also revealed that land-use change had less of an effect on habitat suitability for bats than climate change.[29]

Small mammals in tropical ecosystems

A significant number of mammals are endemic to Mexico, an abundance of those species being small mammals.[30] Many of these small mammals are known to inhabit tropical areas of Mexico, however, it is these tropical dry ecosystems that are highly subject to the effects of land-use change and climate change, making small mammals particularly vulnerable.[30] Researchers set up a 19 year study of small mammal populations in the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve located in Jalisco, Mexico.[30] This site was chosen by the researchers due to the occurrence of a significant amount of anthropogenic disturbance in the surrounding area.[30] The researchers concluded that functional diversity in this area was lower than expected, and, as such, greater conservation efforts should be encouraged in the region.[30]

Birds

In order to determine how conservation efforts should be implemented in order to best protect breeding bird communities, a study was conducted by Aaron D. Flesch.[31] This study of breeding bird communities in Mexico found that species were trending higher in altitude and towards the poles.[31] In order to collect his data, Flesch used techniques that had been used by previous researchers and conducted an observational survey to determine biodiversity values.[31] From the collected data and historical climate data, Flesch found that some lowland species moved north and others moved east to higher altitudes.[31]

Biodiversity

Mexico contains a significant portion of global biodiversity, making it essential that "biodiversity hot-spots" present within its borders are properly protected from the effects of climate change.[32] A large amount of land area in Mexico is already designated as protected areas, as such, these conservation areas make refugia for a number of threatened species.[32] Researchers wanted to determine how protected ecosystems in Mexico will be affected by climate change, and to what degree.[32] Their research concluded that all 40 of the studied protected areas are expected to face warming temperatures while 30 will face decreased precipitation.[32] The researchers suggest that their study be used to determine which of the protected areas in Mexico would benefit most from greater conservation efforts.[32]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Godoy, Emilio (14 Dec 2017). "Climate Change Threatens Mexican Agriculture - Mexico". ReliefWeb. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  2. ^ "Climate Change and Migration in Mexico: A Report Launch". Wilson Center. 2013-02-15. Retrieved 2019-09-28.
  3. ^ Wirtz, Nic (2017-10-16). "Climate change and migration in Mexico: Fifth in our series". Global Americans. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  4. ^ "How Is Climate Change Affecting Mexico?". Climate Reality. February 15, 2018. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  5. ^ Jordan, Chuck (2016-12-21). "Mexico, a global climate change leader". TheHill. Retrieved 2019-09-28.
  6. ^ "Championing Adaptation in Mexico: Protecting Communities from the Impacts of Climate Change". World Bank. July 25, 2018. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  7. ^ "Mexico". Climate Action Tracker. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  8. ^ Marquez, Martha (December 30, 2011). "Climate Change and Mexico". Climate Emergency Institute. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  9. ^ SEMARNAT-INECC (November 2016). "Mexico's Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy" (PDF). Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change. Retrieved 2019-09-29.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  10. ^ Grillo, Ioan (2015-06-06). "Climate change is making Mexico City unbreathable". Salon. Retrieved 2019-09-28.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  11. ^ a b Colorado‐Ruiz, Gabriela; Cavazos, Tereza; Salinas, José Antonio; Grau, Pamela De; Ayala, Rosario (2018). "Climate change projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 multi-model weighted ensembles for Mexico, the North American monsoon, and the mid-summer drought region". International Journal of Climatology. 38 (15): 5699–5716. doi:10.1002/joc.5773. ISSN 1097-0088.
  12. ^ a b c d e f A Brewing Storm: The climate change risks to coffee. September 2016. The Climate Institute.
  13. ^ Karmalkar, A., Bradley, R., Diaz, H. (2011). "Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections". Climate Dynamics. 37: 605–629.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  14. ^ a b c d e Estrada, C.G., Conde, C., Eakin, H., Villers, L. (2006). "POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE: A CASE OF STUDY OF COFFEE PRODUCTION IN VERACRUZ, MEXICO". Climatic Change. 79: 259–288.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  15. ^ "IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Retrieved 2020-02-21.
  16. ^ a b c d e f g h Bellon, M., Hodson, D., Hellon, J. (2011). "Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change". PNAS. 108.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  17. ^ "Redrawing the Map: How the World's Climate Zones Are Shifting". Yale E360. Retrieved 2020-02-21.
  18. ^ Lobell, D., Gourdji, S. (2012). "The Influence of Climate Change on Global Crop Productivity. Plant Physiology". Plant Physiology. 160: 1686–1697.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  19. ^ Altieri, M., Nicholls, C., Henao, A., Lana, M. (2015). "Agroecology and the design of climate change-resilient farming systems". Agronomy and Sustainable Development.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  20. ^ a b c Liverman, D., O'Brian, K. (1991). "Global Warming and Climate Change in Mexico". Global Environmental Change.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  21. ^ Guarin, Jose Rafael; Emberson, Lisa; Simpson, David; Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchel M.; Rowland, Diane; Asseng, Senthold (2019-07-15). "Impacts of tropospheric ozone and climate change on Mexico wheat production". Climatic Change. 155 (2): 157–174. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02451-4.
  22. ^ "Impacts of Extreme Heat Stress and Increased Soil Temperature on Plant Growth and Development". CropWatch. 2016-06-21. Retrieved 2019-10-12.
  23. ^ "Mayan village in Mexico impacted by climate change". San Diego Union-Tribune. 2010-12-05. Retrieved 2019-10-12.
  24. ^ a b "Events - Farm Workers in Mexico's Export Agriculture Conference Report | Migration Dialogue". migration.ucdavis.edu. Retrieved 2020-02-21.
  25. ^ Feng, S., Krueger, A., Oppenheimer, M. (2010). "Linkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico–US cross-border migration". PNAS.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  26. ^ a b "Maize: From Mexico to the world". CIMMYT. Retrieved 2020-02-21.
  27. ^ a b c d e Correa Ayram, Camilo A.; Mendoza, Manuel E.; Etter, Andrés; Pérez Salicrup, Diego R. (July 2017). "Potential Distribution of Mountain Cloud Forest in Michoacán, Mexico: Prioritization for Conservation in the Context of Landscape Connectivity". Environmental Management. 60 (1): 86–103. doi:10.1007/s00267-017-0871-y. ISSN 0364-152X.
  28. ^ a b c d Molina-Martínez, Arcángel; León-Cortés, Jorge L.; Regan, Helen M.; Lewis, Owen T.; Navarrete, Darío; Caballero, Ubaldo; Luis-Martínez, Armando (November 2016). Mac Nally, Ralph (ed.). "Changes in butterfly distributions and species assemblages on a Neotropical mountain range in response to global warming and anthropogenic land use". Diversity and Distributions. 22 (11): 1085–1098. doi:10.1111/ddi.12473.
  29. ^ a b c d e Zamora-Gutierrez, Veronica; Pearson, Richard G.; Green, Rhys E.; Jones, Kate E. (March 2018). Brotons, Lluís (ed.). "Forecasting the combined effects of climate and land use change on Mexican bats". Diversity and Distributions. 24 (3): 363–374. doi:10.1111/ddi.12686.
  30. ^ a b c d e Mason-Romo, Edgard David; Farías, Ariel A.; Ceballos, Gerardo (2017-12-11). Yue, Bi-Song (ed.). "Two decades of climate driving the dynamics of functional and taxonomic diversity of a tropical small mammal community in western Mexico". PLOS ONE. 12 (12): e0189104. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0189104. ISSN 1932-6203. PMC 5724848. PMID 29228017.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  31. ^ a b c d Flesch, Aaron D. (April 2019). "Patterns and drivers of long‐term changes in breeding bird communities in a global biodiversity hotspot in Mexico". Diversity and Distributions. 25 (4): 499–513. doi:10.1111/ddi.12862. ISSN 1366-9516.
  32. ^ a b c d e Esperon-Rodriguez, Manuel; Beaumont, Linda J.; Lenoir, Jonathan; Baumgartner, John B.; McGowan, Jennifer; Correa-Metrio, Alexander; Camac, James S. (December 2019). "Climate change threatens the most biodiverse regions of Mexico". Biological Conservation. 240: 108215. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108215.
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