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2021 Canadian federal election

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44th Canadian federal election
← 2019 On or before October 16, 2023 (2023-10-16) 45th →
338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.07% 121 seats, 34.41% 32 seats, 7.69%
Current seats 155 121 32
Seats needed Increase15 Increase49 N/A[a]
 
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020
Leader's seat Burnaby South No seat[b]
Last election 24 seats, 15.93% 3 seats, 6.50%
Current seats 24 3
Seats needed Increase146 Increase167
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 44th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[1] Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or at the recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.[2][3][4]

Background

The 2019 federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing their majority but winning the most seats. The Conservatives continued as the Official Opposition with Andrew Scheer temporarily remaining as Leader of the Opposition until announcing his resignation, triggering a leadership election.[5][6] The Bloc Québécois became the third party. The New Democrats lost seats but maintained official party status and, although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs—twelve—for official party status.

All leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[7][8][9] However, Elizabeth May said that she may not lead the Greens into the 44th election, and she ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[10][11] On November 6, 2019, the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader. His leadership would still have been reviewed during the party's April 2020 convention[12][13] However, on December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[14] He stayed on until his successor was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[15][16]

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs have announced that they would not be running in the next federal election:

Current standings

Template:44th Canadian federal election

Timeline

See also: 43rd Canadian Parliament
Changes in seats held (2020–present)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[20] Marwan Tabbara █ Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1] █ Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[21] Bill Morneau █ Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien █ Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[22] Michael Levitt █ Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks █ Liberal
  1. ^ amid assault charges
  2. ^ amid allegations during the WE Charity controversy
  3. ^ to become a non-profit executive

2019

2020

2023

  • October 16, 2023: Latest possible date for the 44th Canadian federal election, as determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.

Leaders' debates

Main article: Canadian leaders' debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[38][39] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates every future election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[38][39]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 44th Canadian federal election
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 44th Canadian federal election. Trendlines are local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

  1. ^ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus they currently cannot gain a majority in parliament.
  2. ^ Paul unsuccessfully contested the 2020 Toronto Centre by-election.

References

  1. ^ "Amendment to Canada Elections Act". Queen's Printer for Canada. November 6, 2006. Retrieved July 29, 2011.
  2. ^ Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  3. ^ Harris, Kathleen (October 21, 2020). "Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons". CBC News. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  4. ^ Coyne, Andrew (October 28, 2020). "What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  5. ^ Tasker, John Paul (October 22, 2019). "Andrew Scheer says he's staying on as leader, will fight Trudeau in the next election". Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  6. ^ von Scheel, Elise (January 3, 2020). "Conservativesto pick their new leader on June 27". Retrieved May 17, 2020.
  7. ^ Tunney, Catharine (October 22, 2019). "Singh says he's 'not at all' worried about a leadership challenge after NDP's election disappointment". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  8. ^ Montpetit, Jonathan (October 22, 2019). "Big gains for the Bloc Québécois, but what did it sacrifice in the process?". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  9. ^ Tasker, John Paul (October 22, 2019). "Andrew Scheer says he's staying on as leader, will fight Trudeau in the next election". CBC News. Retrieved December 2, 2019.
  10. ^ Zimonjic, Peter (October 24, 2019). "Elizabeth May says she's staying on as leader—for now". CBC News. Retrieved October 28, 2019.
  11. ^ a b c "Elizabeth May steps down as Green Party leader | CTV News". CTV News. November 4, 2019. Retrieved November 4, 2019.
  12. ^ "Scheer's leadership safe for now after Conservative caucus vote". CBC News. November 6, 2019. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
  13. ^ a b "In a win for Andrew Scheer, Conservative MPs vote against reforming leadership review process". Global News. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
  14. ^ a b Catharine Tunney, Kathleen Harris (December 12, 2019). "Andrew Scheer stepping down as Conservative Party leader". CBC News. Retrieved December 12, 2019.
  15. ^ "Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer resigns, vows to stay on until new leader chosen". Global News. Retrieved December 14, 2019.
  16. ^ "Andrew Scheer stepping down as Conservative leader, staying on until replacement chosen". CTVNews. December 12, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2019.
  17. ^ "Longtime Conservative MP Diane Finley says she's not running in the next election". August 18, 2020. Retrieved August 23, 2020.
  18. ^ "For everything there is a season..." Facebook. November 19, 2020. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  19. ^ "Simcoe North MP Bruce Stanton won't seek re-election". Orillia Matters. Retrieved June 25, 2020.
  20. ^ a b Carty, Matt; Nielsen, Kevin (June 5, 2020). "MP Marwan Tabbara leaving Liberal caucus after charges laid". Global News. Global News. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  21. ^ a b "Bill Morneau resigns as finance minister and MP, will seek to head up OECD". CBC. August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 17, 2020.
  22. ^ a b "Toronto Liberal MP resigns to helm Jewish human rights organization". CBC News. August 4, 2020.
  23. ^ a b Turnbull, Sarah (October 23, 2019). "Trudeau says new cabinet will be sworn in Nov. 20, rules out coalition". CTV News. Retrieved October 23, 2019.
  24. ^ Aiello, Rachel (October 29, 2019). "Trudeau taps French ambassador, Anne McLellan to aide in transition". CTV News. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
  25. ^ Thibedeau, Hannah (October 30, 2019). "Elizabeth May is 'interested' in being the next Speaker of the House of Commons". CBC News. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
  26. ^ Walsh, Marieke; Stone, Laura (November 3, 2019). "Trudeau invites Scheer, Blanchet, Singh and May to one-on-one meetings to see if any common ground exists". The Globe and Mail. Retrieved November 11, 2019.
  27. ^ Simpson, Katie (November 4, 2019). "At a news conference, Green Party leader Elizabeth May says she would like to run for speaker after the *next* election, not now, since her caucus (which totals three) doesn't want her to do that". Twitter. Retrieved November 4, 2019.
  28. ^ Dawson, Tyler (November 18, 2019). "Maxime Bernier has one election regret, but says he's definitely running again". National Post. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  29. ^ D'amore, Rachel (November 12, 2019). "Parliament to reconvene on Dec. 5 to choose speaker, hear throne speech". Global News. Retrieved November 12, 2019.
  30. ^ "Roles - Marwan Tabbara". House of Commons. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
  31. ^ "Trudeau prorogues parliament, ending WE investigations and leaving Commons empty for weeks". National Post. Retrieved August 24, 2020.
  32. ^ "Trudeau prorogues Parliament — what exactly does that mean?". Global News. Retrieved August 24, 2020.
  33. ^ "Conservatives to pick their new leader on June 27". CBC News. January 3, 2020. Retrieved January 3, 2020.
  34. ^ "Erin O'Toole wins Conservative leadership race on the third ballot". National Post. Retrieved August 24, 2020.
  35. ^ "Pierre Nantel réfléchit à se présenter comme chef du Parti vert". TVRS (in French). November 5, 2019. Retrieved November 7, 2019.
  36. ^ CBC News (September 21, 2020). "Byelections called for Toronto Centre, York Centre on Oct. 26". cbc.ca. Archived from the original on September 22, 2020. Retrieved October 3, 2020.
  37. ^ Burke, Ashley (November 9, 2020). "Liberal MP out of caucus after employing sister for years using public funds". CBC News. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
  38. ^ a b The Canadian Press (June 1, 2020). "Report on federal election leaders' debates suggests permanent commission". CBC News. Retrieved October 26, 2020.
  39. ^ a b Johnston, David (Debates Commissioner) (June 1, 2020). "Democracy Matters, Debates Count: A report on the 2019 Leaders' Debates Commission and the future of debates in Canada". Leaders' Debates Commission. Retrieved October 26, 2020.
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