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2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico

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2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
 
Nominee Tom Udall Steve Pearce
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 505,128 318,522
Percentage 61.33% 38.67%
Udall:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Pearce:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Pete Domenici
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Udall
Democratic

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The 2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 4, 2008, coinciding with the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire instead of seeking a seventh term. All three of New Mexico's U.S. Representatives (Tom Udall, Steve Pearce, and Heather Wilson) retired from the House to run in this election, which was the first open Senate seat in the state since 1972 where Domenici was first elected on this seat. Pearce narrowly defeated Wilson in the Republican primary, but Udall won the general election after an uncontested Democratic primary.

In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election.[1] By October 2007, he changed his mind, stating that because of the progression of a medical condition, he would not seek a seventh term.[2] Domenici also lost his chairmanship after Republicans lost control of the Senate in the 2006 Senate election, which may have inclined him against running. On June 3, 2008, Pearce and Udall won their respective nomination contests.[3]

Democrats won this seat for the first time since 1966, the NM-01 House seat for the first time ever, and the NM-02 seat for the first time since 1978, and thereby gave New Mexico an all-Democratic Congressional delegation for the first time since 1969. Tom Udall outperformed Barack Obama and his results in the concurrent presidential election by 4.42% and by 32,706 votes.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.[4]

In October Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez entered the race for the Democratic nomination.[5] In early November five-term Democratic Rep. Tom Udall entered the race.[6] On December 7 Chavez withdrew from the race, saying "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election."[7]

Results

Democratic primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Udall 141,629 100.00%
Total votes 141,629 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Source Date Steve
Pearce 		Heather
Wilson
SurveyUSA[9] November 16–18, 2007 37% 56%
SurveyUSA[10] May 15, 2008 49% 46%

Results

Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Pearce—>90%
  •   Pearce—80–90%
  •   Pearce—70–80%
  •   Pearce—60–70%
  •   Pearce—50–60%
  •   Wilson—50–60%
  •   Wilson—60–70%
  •   Wilson—70–80%
Republican primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Pearce 57,953 51.29%
Republican Heather Wilson 55,039 48.71%
Total votes 112,992 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Lean D (flip) October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[12] Likely D (flip) October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[13] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[14] Likely D (flip) October 31, 2008

Controversy

Domenici and Wilson were both being investigated by the Senate for their roles in the dismissal of prosecutor David Iglesias. This may have affected Wilson's chances in the 2008 election.[15]

In late October Pearce made 130,000 automated phone calls, which led Wilson to "cry foul."[16] At issue was Pearce's use of the phone calls to justify his opposition to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill. The Wilson campaign claimed that "Pearce violated House ethics by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site."[17]

Finances

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to defend 23 Senate seats up for election in November. Committee chair Senator John Ensign identified the 10 most competitive Republican seats in June 2008. He was asked about the two Republican seats most likely to turn Democratic, Virginia and New Mexico. Ensign did not directly say whether the NRSC was considering walking away to work on other seats that can be won, but he said, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win."[18]

Udall raised more than $801,000 prior to November 29.[19] Wilson had slightly less, including a November Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney that netted $110,000, bringing her total to about $750,000.[20]

Debates

The candidates agreed to three televised debates: October 15 on KOB-TV, October 18 on KRQE and October 26 on KOAT-TV. The AARP co-sponsored the second debate and the Albuquerque Journal co-sponsored the final debate. They also appeared together on Meet the Press in the fall.[21]

Polling

Source Date Steve
Pearce (R) 		Tom
Udall (D)
SurveyUSA[22] October 5–7, 2007 37% 55%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates[23] October 23–27, 2007 33% 50%
SurveyUSA[24] October 27–30, 2007 40% 56%
Research 2000[25] November 5–7, 2007 37% 54%
SurveyUSA[9] November 16–18, 2007 40% 54%
New Mexico State University[26] February 11, 2008 31% 53%
Rasmussen Reports[27] February 29, 2008 42% 50%
Rasmussen Reports[27] April 10, 2008 40% 54%
Rasmussen Reports[28] May 14, 2008 37% 53%
SurveyUSA[10] May 15, 2008 36% 60%
Rasmussen Reports[29] July 24, 2008 35% 61%
Rasmussen Reports[29] August 20, 2008 44% 52%
Rasmussen Reports[29] September 8, 2008 44% 51%
Survey USA[30] September 16, 2008 41% 56%
Public Policy Polling[31] September 19, 2008 37% 57%
Survey USA[32] September 29–30, 2008 39% 58%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 1, 2008 41% 55%
Survey USA[33] October 13, 2008 40% 58%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 13, 2008 37% 57%
Rasmussen Reports[29] October 28, 2008 41% 56%
Survey USA[34] October 31, 2008 42% 56%

Results

2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico[35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tom Udall 505,128 61.33% +26.37%
Republican Steve Pearce 318,522 38.67% −26.37%
Total votes 823,650 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

  1. ^ Talhelm, Jennifer (February 13, 2007). "Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008". The Santa Fe New Mexican. Archived from the original on September 30, 2007. Retrieved February 14, 2007.
  2. ^ Murray, Shailagh (October 5, 2007). "Citing Health, GOP's Domenici says he'll retire from Senate". The Washington Post. Retrieved October 5, 2007.
  3. ^ Election.KOB.com – Pearce narrowly wins U.S. Senate nomination[permanent dead link‍]
  4. ^ "Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid". The New York Times. Associated Press. October 4, 2008. Retrieved October 5, 2008.
  5. ^ "Chavez announces U.S. Senate run". KOB-TV. October 9, 2007. Retrieved November 18, 2007.
  6. ^ "NM Rep. Tom Udall to Run for Senate". Associated Press. November 11, 2007. Archived from the original on November 12, 2007. Retrieved November 11, 2007.
  7. ^ "Chávez drops out of U. S. Senate race". KRQE-TV. December 7, 2007. Archived from the original on January 10, 2008. Retrieved December 18, 2007.
  8. ^ a b "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on March 14, 2012. Retrieved December 14, 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. ^ a b SurveyUSA
  10. ^ a b SurveyUSA
  11. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  12. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  13. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  14. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  15. ^ "Wilson, Possibly Udall To Seek Domenici's Senate Seat". The Gate. October 4, 2008. Archived from the original on October 11, 2007. Retrieved October 18, 2007.
  16. ^ "Pearce calls voters, Wilson cries foul". KOB. October 22, 2007. Archived from the original on January 10, 2008. Retrieved November 18, 2007.
  17. ^ "Senate hopefuls don't inspire". Alamogordo Daily News. October 31, 2007. Archived from the original on August 17, 2009. Retrieved November 18, 2007.
  18. ^ Davis, Susan (June 12, 2008). "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous'". Wall Street Journal blog.
  19. ^ "Ten things to know about Senate hopeful Rep. Tom Udall". Albuquerque Tribune. November 29, 2007. Archived from the original on December 24, 2007. Retrieved December 11, 2007.
  20. ^ "Wilson pulls $110,000 at Cheney fundraiser". The Hill. November 16, 2007. Archived from the original on November 24, 2007. Retrieved December 11, 2007.
  21. ^ Senate candidates agree on 3 NM televised debates[permanent dead link‍] AP, August 17, 2008
  22. ^ SurveyUSA
  23. ^ Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates
  24. ^ SurveyUSA
  25. ^ Research 2000
  26. ^ New Mexico State University
  27. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  28. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ^ a b c d e f Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ Survey USA
  31. ^ Public Policy Polling
  32. ^ Survey USA
  33. ^ Survey USA
  34. ^ Survey USA
  35. ^ "Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives".
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