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2024 United States presidential election in Vermont

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Vermont
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout72.12%
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 235,791 119,395
Percentage 63.83% 32.32%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Vermont was won by the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a landslide margin of 31.51%; while her margin of victory slightly decreased from Biden's 35.41% in 2020, and Trump managed to narrowly flip Orleans County, Vermont was once again the most Democratic state in the nation, only the second occasion in the state's history (behind 2020) in which it was the strongest for the Democrats,[2] and the first time since 1956 in which it was the strongest state for either party in back-to-back elections.[3] Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Vermont a state Harris would win, or otherwise a safe blue state.[4]

As a sparsely populated rural state in northern New England, Vermont was historically a moderate/liberal "Yankee Republican" stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988, the exception being Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000.

This is the first election since 2000 in which Orleans County was won by the Republican candidate.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Vermont Republican presidential primary

The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary.[5]

Vermont Republican primary, March 5, 2024[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Nikki Haley 36,241 49.32% 9 9
Donald Trump 33,162 45.13% 8 8
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,020 1.39%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 949 1.29%
Write-in votes 586 0.80%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 546 0.74%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 278 0.38%
Overvotes 51 0.07%
Blank ballots 654 0.89%
Total: 73,487 100.00% 17 17


Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Vermont Democratic presidential primary

The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.

Vermont Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[7][8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 56,924 82.98% 16
Marianne Williamson 2,873 4.19%
Dean Phillips 1,942 2.83%
Other write-ins 1,260 1.84%
Mark Greenstein 779 1.14%
Rashida Tlaib (write-in) 763 1.11%
Cenk Uygur 700 1.02%
"Blank" (write-in) 556 0.81%
Jason Palmer 404 0.59%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent) 322 0.47%
Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent) 288 0.42%
Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican) 187 0.27%
Kamala Harris (write-in) 23 0.03%
Overvotes 73 0.10%
Blank ballots 1,525 2.22%
Total: 68,599 100% 16 8 24


General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[15] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[16] Solid D June 11, 2024
NBC News[17] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
University of New Hampshire[18] August 15–19, 2024 924 (LV) ± 3.2% 70% 29% 1%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[19] October 29 – November 2, 2024 1,167 (LV) ± 2.9% 63% 31% 2% 0% – 0% 4%[b]
University of New Hampshire[18] August 15–19, 2024 924 (LV) ± 3.2% 67% 27% 3% 0% – 0% 3%[c]
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A] April 13–21, 2024 272 (LV) – 56% 35% 9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[21] February 29 – March 3, 2024 117 (RV) – 58% 28% 14%[d]
111 (LV) 59% 28% 13%[e]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A] April 13–21, 2024 272 (LV) – 47% 42% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[20][A] April 13–21, 2024 272 (LV) – 52% 29% 19%


Results

2024 United States presidential election in Vermont[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
235,791 63.83% –2.26%
Republican
119,395 32.32% +1.65%
We the People
5,905 1.60% New
Libertarian
1,828 0.49% –0.49%
Socialism and Liberation
1,710 0.46% New
Green Mountain Peace and Justice
1,549 0.42% +0.37%
Green
895 0.24% −0.12%
Socialist Workers
211 0.06% +0.01%
Write-in 2,138 0.58% N/A
Total votes 369,422 100.00% N/A

By county

County[citation needed] Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Addison 14,879 65.82% 6,841 30.26% 887 3.92% 8,038 35.56% 22,607
Bennington 12,326 59.52% 7,697 37.17% 687 3.31% 4,629 22.35% 20,710
Caledonia 8,977 53.97% 6,927 41.65% 729 4.38% 2,050 12.32% 16,633
Chittenden 72,656 74.65% 20,937 21.51% 3,736 3.84% 51,719 53.14% 97,329
Essex 1,344 39.24% 1,890 55.18% 191 5.58% -546 -15.94% 3,425
Franklin 13,280 49.66% 12,490 46.70% 945 3.66% 790 2.96% 26,743
Grand Isle 2,940 58.79% 1,893 37.85% 168 3.36% 1,047 20.94% 5,001
Lamoille 9,788 65.94% 4,505 30.35% 551 3.71% 5,283 35.59% 14,844
Orange 10,220 57.83% 6,683 37.82% 769 4.35% 3,537 20.01% 17,672
Orleans 7,006 47.45% 7,233 48.99% 526 3.56% -227 -1.54% 14,765
Rutland 17,375 50.95% 15,586 45.70% 1,141 3.35% 1,789 5.25% 34,102
Washington 24,527 69.35% 9,327 26.37% 1,515 4.28% 15,200 42.98% 35,369
Windham 17,904 69.04% 6,928 26.71% 1,101 4.25% 10,976 42.33% 25,933
Windsor 22,569 65.82% 10,458 30.50% 1,262 3.68% 12,111 35.32% 34,289
Totals 235,791 63.83% 119,395 32.32% 14,236 3.85% 116,396 31.51% 369,422

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
  3. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
  3. ^ * "Election 2024 live updates: Latest news and results as voters head to the polls to vote for Trump or Harris". nbcnews.com. NBC News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  4. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
  5. ^ Vakil, Caroline (March 6, 2024). "Haley defeats Trump in Vermont GOP primary". The Hill. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  6. ^ "Official Report of the Canvassing Committee – United States and Vermont Statewide Offices" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  7. ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  8. ^ "Vermont Election Night Results". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  17. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  18. ^ a b "Harris Holds Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Many Worried About Peaceful Transfer of Power". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
  19. ^ McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Maintains Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Fears of Political Violence Widespread". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
  20. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  21. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
  22. ^ "Vermont Election Results". bloomberg.com. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  23. ^ "Vermont Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  24. ^ "2024 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). VT SOS. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
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