User:Vipul/Blue Chip Economic Indicators
'Blue Chip Economic Indicators is a monthly survey and associated publication by the Blue Chip Publications division of Aspen Publishers collecting macroeconomic forecasts related to the economy of the United States.[1] The survey polls America's top business economists, collecting their forecasts of U.S. economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and a host of other critical indicators of future business activity.[1] It has a sister publication called Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, which surveys forecasts of the future direction and level of U.S. interest rates.[2]
History
Blue Chip Economic Indicators started in 1976.[1]
Variables reported
The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey provides forecasts for this year and next from each panel member, plus and average, or consensus, of their forecasts for each of these variables associated with the economy of the United States:[1]
- Real GDP
- GDP price index
- Nominal GDP
- Consumer price index
- Industrial production
- Real disposable personal income
- Real personal consumption expenditures
- Real non-residential fixed investment
- Pre-tax corporate profits
- 3-month Treasury bill rate
- 10-year Treasury note yield
- Unemployment rate
- Total housing starts
- Auto and light truck sales
- Real Net exports
Reception
Many papers in the academic literature on the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts have used the Blue Chip Economic Indicators for a data set of forecasts whose accuracy is to be evaluated.[3][4][5]
The Congressional Budget Office has also cited Blue Chip Economic Indicators data in some of its publications.[6]
The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs.[7][8]
In March 2009, PolitiFact reported that a controversial statement made by Christina Romer based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip Economic Indicators.[9]
See also
References
- ^ a b c d Moore, Randell E. "Blue Chip Economic Indicators". Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- ^ "Blue Chip Financial Forecasts". Blue Chip Publications, Aspen Publishers. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- ^ Swidler, Steve; Ketcher, David (February 1990). "Economic Forecasts, Rationality, and the Processing of New Information over Time". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 22 (1): 65–76. JSTOR 1992128.
{{cite journal}}:|access-date=requires|url=(help) - ^ Batchelor, Roy; Dua, Pami (November 1991). "Blue Chip Rationality Tests". Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 23 (4). Ohio State University Press. JSTOR 1992704.
{{cite journal}}:|access-date=requires|url=(help) - ^ Laster, David; Bennett, Paul; Geoum, In Sun (1999). "Rational Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts". The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 114 (1): 293–318. doi:10.1162/003355399555918.
- ^ Elmendorf, Douglas William (March 27, 2013). "How Different Future Interest Rates Would Affect Budget Deficits". Congressional Budget Office. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- ^ Epstein, Gene (June 23, 2012). "The Chips Are a Mixed Bag: Blue Chip Economic Indicators puts its consensus odds of a recession over the next year at nearly one in four -- but it may be overemphasizing a soft patch". Barron's. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
{{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in:|publisher=(help) - ^ Barbera, Robert; Wright, Jonathan (March 2, 2014). "A Consistent Set of Interest Rate and Real Growth Assumptions Suggests Stable Debt to GDP Ratios in the Out years". Center for Financial Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
- ^ Romer, Christina (March 15, 2009). ""Last week the Blue Chip Economic Indicators came out that surveys lots of private forecasters. Almost all of them are predicting a turnaround in the third quarter and positive growth in the fourth quarter."". PolitiFact. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
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