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2024 Saskatchewan general election

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2024 Saskatchewan general election
← 2020 October 28, 2024 2028 →
61 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout56.77% Increase 3.91%
  First party Second party
 
Scott Moe at USTR (cropped2).jpg
Carla at desk (3x4).jpg
Leader Scott Moe Carla Beck
Party Saskatchewan New Democratic
Leader since January 27, 2018 June 26, 2022
Leader's seat Rosthern-Shellbrook Regina Lakeview
Last election 48 seats, 61.12% 13 seats, 31.82%
Seats before 42 14
Seats won 34 27
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 14
Popular vote 244,037 188,373
Percentage 52.3% 40.4%
Swing Decrease 8.82 Increase 8.58
Riding map based on new boundaries
Premier before election

Scott Moe
Saskatchewan

Premier after election

Scott Moe
Saskatchewan

The 2024 Saskatchewan general election was held on October 28, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.

The incumbent Saskatchewan Party government, led by Premier Scott Moe since 2018, sought re-election to a fifth consecutive term. The Saskatchewan Party's primary opponent, the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Carla Beck, sought to lead the NDP to its first government since 2007. This was the first general election to feature the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP).

The Saskatchewan Party won enough seats to form its fifth consecutive majority government, claiming the majority of rural ridings. Its majority was reduced from eleven seats to three by a resurgent NDP—which achieved its best electoral performance since 2007 by taking every seat in Regina and all but one in Saskatoon. The SUP lost its only seat, which had been held by party founder Nadine Wilson. The results underscored the urban–rural divide between the two parties' constituencies.[1][2][3]

Background

[edit]

Since 2010, the Legislative Assembly has had a fixed four-year term. According to the 2019 amendment to the Legislative Assembly Act, 2007, "the first general election after the coming into force of this subsection must be held on Monday, October 26, 2020".[4][5] Subsequent elections, must occur "on the last Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the last general election".[6] However, the act also provides that if the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the first Monday of the following April; in this case: April 7, 2025.[6] The fixed election law does not infringe on the Lieutenant Governor's right to dissolve the Legislative Assembly at an earlier date on the Premier's advice.

Legislative summary

[edit]
Summary of the 29th Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
Party Leader Seats
2020 At dissolution
Saskatchewan Scott Moe 48 42
New Democratic Carla Beck 13 14
Saskatchewan United Jon Hromek – 1
Independent – 3
Vacant 1
Total 61 61

List of registered provincial political parties in Saskatchewan

[edit]
Party[7] Leader[8]
Buffalo Phillip Zajac[9]
Green Naomi Hunter
New Democratic Carla Beck
Progress Teunis Peters (i)
Progressive Conservative Rose Marie Buscholl (i)
Saskatchewan Scott Moe
Saskatchewan United Jon Hromek

Redistricting

[edit]

The Saskatchewan Provincial Boundaries Commission drew a new map for Saskatchewan, as required by the Constituency Boundaries Act, 1993,[10][11] which was subsequently ratified by the Saskatchewan Legislature.[12] The Legislative Assembly continued to consist of 61 members.

The following changes took effect:

Abolished New
Renaming of constituencies
Abolition of constituencies
Drawn from other constituencies
Division of constituencies
Reorganization of constituencies
  1. ^ parts going to Regina University, Regina Northeast, Regina Wascana Plains and Regina Douglas Park
  2. ^ from parts of Regina Rosemont, Regina Pasqua and Lumsden-Morse
  3. ^ from parts of Regina University, Regina Pasqua and Lumsden-Morse

Campaign

[edit]

Health care, education, and the economy have been considered to be among the top issues heading into the election, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan NDP focusing primarily on these issues.[13]

The province's health care system has been affected by staffing shortages, especially in rural areas of the province, which CUPE credited primarily to the Saskatchewan Health Authority's reliance on part-time workers as opposed to full-time positions. This has led to significant increases in vacancies and service disruptions since 2019.[14] In early-October 2024, the emergency room of Saskatoon's Royal University Hospital operated at 350% capacity after other nearby facilities were unable to take patients in, causing it to run out of beds, stretchers, and oxygen.[15][16][17] The Saskatchewan Party touted its effort to recruit nursing graduates, and internationally-trained nurses from countries such as the Philippines.[18] It also stated that it would offer at-home screening kits for HPV, and a refundable tax credit of up to $10,000 for fertility treatment.[19] Carla Beck stated that the NDP would invest $1.1 billion into critical front line services over the next four years, and focus on improving working conditions to achieve employee retention.[18] Beck criticized Scott Moe during the leaders' debate for not making any specific funding commitments for health care in his party's platform.[20]

The Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation (STF) has been in a labour dispute with the provincial government since May 2023, citing a lack of action on issues such as classroom size and complexity.[21][22] After rotating strikes since January 2024, the STF enacted an indefinite work-to-rule beginning in April 2024.[23][24][20] The Saskatchewan Party and NDP both pledged to place increased funding into education, with the Sask Party planning to spend $156 million on infrastructure and $336 million on classroom sizes and complexity, and the NDP planning to increase the education budget by $2 billion over four years to fund classroom size and complexity, infrastructure, and special needs programs. Beck also promised a new high school in White City, and the implementation of a healthy food program.[25][26]

On October 17, expanding upon the Parents' Bill of Rights introduced in 2023, Moe announced that his "first order of business" after reelection would be to immediately enact rules requiring school students to use the changing rooms that correspond to their biological sex. The Saskatchewan Party stated that it had "received calls and correspondence" regarding a October 16 report from the Western Standard, which detailed a complaint from the parent of a rural school student who had seen two trans girls using the girls' changing room. The Canadian Press reported that a parent of the two students was one of the NDP's candidates.[27][28][29] The proposal was not in the platform published by the Saskatchewan Party, and faced criticism from the NDP, STF, and LGBT rights advocates for harming the safety of transgender students. Regina Douglas Park MLA Nicole Sarauer stated that "no leader, community, political or otherwise, should aid in anyway to the outing or othering of children." Saskatchewan Party officials denied it was directly involved with the outing,[30][31][32] and Moe later claimed he was unaware of the two children, and that "I never once spoke to any of the individuals, nor will I, nor should anyone."[27] In November 2024, Moe walked back his declaration and stated that he had misspoke, saying that his first order of business would be to form a cabinet, and that the Minister of Education would enter into a consulting phase on policies with school boards following municipal and school board elections.[33]

On the economic front, Moe stated that he would reduce personal income taxes, expand the tuition rebate offered in its graduate retention program, remove the carbon tax on heating oil, and establish new tax credits and rebates for first-time homeowners and families with children involved in the arts or sports. Beck stated that she would balance the province's budget within four years and cut $58 million in "Saskatchewan Party waste" within her first year of office. Beck also stated that she would suspend the provincial gas tax for six months, end the PST for groceries and children's clothing, and establish an accountability commission to investigate issues such as cost overruns on government projects.[34][35][20][36]

Jon Hromek launched the Saskatchewan United Party's campaign on October 2, 2024, describing it as a "true conservative option", and hoping to have at least two candidates elected to the Legislative Assembly.[37][38] Its platform focused on goals such as cutting the provincial sales tax, ending the fuel tax, lowering property taxes for homeowners over 65, reviewing the royalty framework for potash, privatization of health care, a commitment to coal and natural gas energy and the suspension of green energy projects, removing "ideology" and "indoctrination" from school curricula (including gender identity and the climate crisis), and proposals to prohibit transgender women from occupying women-only spaces or competing in women's sports.[38][39] It was suggested that the Saskatchewan United Party could potentially split the right-wing vote with the Saskatchewan Party, although Scott Moe downplayed these concerns.[40][39][41]

On October 22, it was reported that the front window of the office of Saskatchewan Party candidate Rahul Singh had been vandalized, with damage resembling small bullet holes. The party initially claimed that the vandalism was the result of a gun attack. The Regina Police Service stated that it had investigated a report of mischief reported on the evening of October 21, and that there was no evidence that firearms were involved.[42][43]

The NDP has received endorsements from multiple current and former Saskatchewan Party members and MLAs, including from Speaker Randy Weekes.[44]

Timeline

[edit]
29th Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan - Movement in seats held up to the election (2020-2024)
Party 2020 Gain/(loss) due to 2024
Died in
Office 		Leaves
caucus 		Resignation
as MLA 		Removed
from caucus 		Switching
allegiance 		Byelection
gain 		Byelection
hold
Saskatchewan 48 (1) (3) (3) (1) 1 1 42
New Democratic 13 (2) 2 1 14
Saskatchewan United – 1 1
Independent – 3 1 (1) 3
Vacant – 1 5 (3) (2) 1
Total 61 – – – – – – – 61
Changes in seats held (2020–2024)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Athabasca August 10, 2021 Buckley Belanger █ New Democratic Resignation[45] February 15, 2022 Jim Lemaigre[46] █ Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Rivers September 30, 2021 Nadine Wilson █ Saskatchewan Resigned from caucus[47] █ Independent
November 30, 2022 █ Independent Designated as Sask United leader █ Sask. United
Saskatoon Meewasin July 1, 2022 Ryan Meili █ New Democratic Resignation[48] September 26, 2022 Nathaniel Teed █ New Democratic
Regina Coronation Park February 10, 2023 Mark Docherty █ Saskatchewan Resignation[49] August 10, 2023 Noor Burki[50] █ New Democratic
Lumsden-Morse March 10, 2023 Lyle Stewart █ Saskatchewan Resignation[51] August 10, 2023 Blaine McLeod[50] █ Saskatchewan
Regina Walsh Acres March 28, 2023 Derek Meyers █ Saskatchewan Died in office[52][53] August 10, 2023 Jared Clarke[50] █ New Democratic
Cut Knife-Turtleford November 17, 2023 Ryan Domotor █ Saskatchewan Removed from caucus █ Independent
Moose Jaw Wakamow January 30, 2024 Greg Lawrence █ Saskatchewan Resigned from caucus █ Independent
Biggar-Sask Valley May 15, 2024 Randy Weekes █ Saskatchewan Resigned from party, but remained as Speaker[54][55] █ Independent
Saskatoon Northwest June 10, 2024 Gordon Wyant █ Saskatchewan Resignation[56] █ Vacant

2020

[edit]

2022

[edit]

2023

[edit]

2024

[edit]
  • May 16: Nadine Wilson stepped down as leader of the Saskatchewan United Party, and Jon Hromek was appointed as the new leader.[61]
  • October 1: The election campaign begins.
  • October 12: Candidate nomination deadline at 2pm.
  • October 22–26: Voting week.[62]
  • October 28: Final day of voting, first preliminary count.[63] Saskatchewan Party wins fifth consecutive majority government.
  • October 30: Second preliminary count, mail-in ballots received by October 26 counted.[63]
  • November 9: Final count, mail-in ballots received between October 27 and November 7 counted along with all hospital and remand centre votes. Returning officers will be verifying the numbers in each electoral district.[63]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominations closed on October 12.

Candidates by Party

[edit]
Party Leader[64] Candidates
Saskatchewan Scott Moe 61
New Democratic Carla Beck 61
Green Naomi Hunter 58
Saskatchewan United Jon Hromek 31
Buffalo Philip Zajac 16
Progressive Conservative Rose Marie Buscholl 11
Progress Teunis Peters 3
Independent 2
Candidate contests[65]
Candidates
nominated		 Constituencies Party
Sask NDP Green SUP Buff PC Prog Ind Totals
3 18 18 18 16 1 1 54
4 27 27 27 26 16 5 4 2 1 108
5 15 15 15 15 13 9 6 1 1 75
6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6
Total 61 61 61 58 31 16 11 3 2 243

Incumbents not contesting their seats

[edit]
Retiring incumbents
Affiliation[a 1] MLA Constituency Held office
since
  Sask Steven Bonk[66] Moosomin 2016
Fred Bradshaw[67] Carrot River Valley 2007
Dustin Duncan[68] Weyburn-Big Muddy 2006
Ken Francis[69] Kindersley 2018
Marv Friesen[70] Saskatoon Riversdale 2020
Gary Grewal[71] Regina Northeast 2020
Joe Hargrave[72] Prince Albert Carlton 2016
Donna Harpauer[68] Humboldt-Watrous[a 2] 1999
Delbert Kirsch[67] Batoche 2003
Don McMorris[68] Indian Head-Milestone 1999
Don Morgan[67] Saskatoon Southeast 2003
Hugh Nerlien[70] Kelvington-Wadena 2016
Greg Ottenbreit[69] Yorkton 2007
Dana Skoropad[67] Arm River 2020
  NDP Jennifer Bowes[73] Saskatoon University 2020
Doyle Vermette[74] Cumberland 2008
  Independent Ryan Domotor[a 3][75] Cut Knife-Turtleford 2020
Greg Lawrence[a 3][76] Moose Jaw Wakamow 2011
Failed to secure renomination
  Sask Terry Dennis[77][78] Canora-Pelly 2016
  Independent Randy Weekes[a 3][a][b][79] Biggar-Sask Valley[a 4] 1999
  1. ^ At dissolution
  2. ^ Previously MLA for Watrous (1999-2003)
  3. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Saskatchewan Party banner
  4. ^ Previously MLA for Biggar (2003-2016) and Redberry Lake (1999-2003)

Candidates by riding

[edit]

Candidates in bold represent cabinet members and the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. Party leaders are italicized. The symbol † indicates incumbent MLAs who are not running again. The symbol ‡ indicates incumbent MLAs who are running again in a different district.

Northwest Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Buffalo Green
Athabasca Jim Lemaigre[80] Leroy Laliberte[81] Raven Reid[82] Jim Lemaigre
Cut Knife-Turtleford James Thorsteinson[83] Clayton Poole[84] Steve Gessner[85] Holly Ennis[82] Ryan Domotor†
Lloydminster Colleen Young[80] Adam Tremblay[86] Joshua Bloom[85] Patrick McNally[82] Colleen Young
Meadow Lake Jeremy Harrison[80] Miles Nachbaur[87] Denis Allchurch[88] Candice Turner[82] Jeremy Harrison
Rosthern-Shellbrook Scott Moe[80] Mark Thunderchild[89] Cody Lockhart[85] Janice Dongworth[82] Scott Moe
The Battlefords Jeremy Cockrill[80] Tom Kroczynski[84] Dale Richarson[90] Sara Piotrofsky[82] Jeremy Cockrill

Northeast Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Green Other
Batoche Darlene Rowden[91] Trina Miller[92] Erin Nicole Spencer[85] Hamish Graham[82] Delbert Kirsch†
Canora-Pelly Sean Wilson[93] Wynn Fedorchuk[94] Casimira Rimando[82] Niall Schofield (Buff.)[90] Terry Dennis†
Carrot River Valley Terri Bromm[80] CJ Binkley[84] Shauna Stanley Seymour[85] Liam Becker Lau[82] Fred Bradshaw†
Cumberland Gregory Seib[95] Jordan McPhail[84] Siwichis Bird-Paddy[82] Nasser Dean Chalifoux (Ind.)[96] Doyle Vermette†
Kelvington-Wadena Chris Beaudry[97] Lorne Schroeder[98] Clint Gottinger[85] Gillian Halyk[82] Hugh Nerlien†
Melfort Todd Goudy[80] Melanie Dyck[84] Dave Moore[99] Tristan St. Germain[82] Todd Goudy
Prince Albert Carlton Kevin Kasun[100] Carolyn Brost Strom[84] Denneil Carpenter[85] Andrew Muirhead[82] Joe Hargrave†
Prince Albert Northcote Alana Ross[80] Nicole Rancourt[84] Terri Davis[101] Jarren Jones[82] Alana Ross
Saskatchewan Rivers Eric Schmalz[80] Doug Racine[84] Nadine Wilson[61] Alesha Bruce[82] Bernard Lalonde (P.C.)[102] Nadine Wilson

West Central Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Buffalo Green Other
Dakota-Arm River Barret Kropf[103] Jordan Wiens[84] Darren Ebenal[85] Joseph Reynolds[82] Raymond L. Carrick (P.C.)[104] Dana Skoropad†
Arm River
Humboldt-Watrous Racquel Hilbert[105] Kevin Fallis[84] Carrie Ann Hradecki[106] Megan Christianson[96] Sharon Thibault[82] Rose Buscholl (P.C.)[107] Donna Harpauer†
Kindersley-Biggar Kim Gartner[108] Cindy Hoppe[84] Jeff Wortman[90] Darcy Robilliard[82] Wade Sira (Ind.)[99] Ken Francis†
Kindersley
Martensville-Blairmore Jamie Martens[109] Tammy Pike[84] Brittney Ricottone[82] Terry Jenson‡
Martensville-Warman
Rosetown-Delisle Jim Reiter[80] Brenda Edel[84] Sean Muirhead[82] Jim Reiter
Rosetown-Elrose
Warman Terry Jenson[80] Erica Baerwald[84] Andrea Early[85] Mark Friesen[99] Adriana Hackl Pinno[82] Randy Weekes†
Biggar-Sask Valley

Southwest Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP Green Other
Cypress Hills Doug Steele[80] Clare McNab[84] Doug Wilson (Buff.)[90] Doug Steele
Lumsden-Morse Blaine McLeod[91] Chauntel Baudu[110] Isaiah Hunter[82] Jon Hromek (SUP)[61] Blaine McLeod
Megan Torrie (P.C.)[111]
Moose Jaw North Tim McLeod[80] Cheantelle Fisher[84] Kimberly Epp[82] Tim McLeod
Moose Jaw Wakamow Megan Patterson[91] Melissa Patterson[84] Michael Gardiner[82] Greg Lawrence†
Swift Current Everett Hindley[80] Jay Kimball[84] George Watson[82] Constance P Maffenbeier (Buff.)[90] Everett Hindley
Wood River David Marit[80] Mike Topola[84] Melvin Pylychuk[82] Clint Arnason (P.C.)[112] Dave Marit
Todd McIntyre (SUP)[85]

Southeast Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Buffalo Green
Cannington Daryl Harrison[80] Dianne Twietmeyer[84] Barbara Helfrick[99] Michelle Krieger[91] Natalie Lund-Clysdale[82] Daryl Harrison
Estevan-Big Muddy Lori Carr[80] Phil Smith[84] Andrew Cey[85] Phillip Zajac[91] Billy Patterson[82] Lori Carr
Estevan
Last Mountain-Touchwood Travis Keisig[80] Thera Nordal[98] Gene Unruh[85] Elvin Mandziak[99] Travis Keisig
Melville-Saltcoats Warren Kaeding[80] Karen Hovind[84] Curtis Brooks[85] Frank Serfas[99] Micah Mang[82] Warren Kaeding
Moosomin-Montmartre Kevin Weedmark[113] Chris Ball[84] Adam Erickson[85] Otis Ayre[90] Remi Rheault[82] Steven Bonk†
Moosomin
Weyburn-Bengough Michael Weger[114] Seth Lendrum[84] Rose McInnes[85] Andrew Shanaida[90] North Hunter[82] Dustin Duncan†
Weyburn-Big Muddy
White City-Qu'appelle Brad Crassweller[115] Grady Birns[84] Darcy Thiele[85] Don McMorris†
Indian Head-Milestone
Yorkton David Chan[116] Lenore Pinder[84] Doug Forster[85] Timothy Kasprick[96] Valerie Brooks[82] Greg Ottenbreit†

Saskatoon East

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Green Progress
Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood Lisa Lambert[80] Keith Jorgenson[84] Morgan McAdam[82] Lisa Lambert
Saskatoon Eastview Francis Kreiser[117] Matt Love[84] Brad McAvoy[85] Kendra Anderson[82] Matt Love
Saskatoon Nutana Mumtaz Naseeb[118] Erika Ritchie[84] Whitney Greenleaf[82] Erika Ritchie
Saskatoon Silverspring Paul Merriman[80] Hugh Gordon[84] Jackie Hanson[82] Paul Merriman
Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland
Saskatoon Southeast John Owojori[119] Brittney Senger[84] Greg Brkich[88] Mohammad Abushar[82] Don Morgan†
Saskatoon Stonebridge Bronwyn Eyre[80] Darcy Warrington[84] Cheryl Mazil[82] Jahangir J Valiani[120] Bronwyn Eyre
Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota
Saskatoon University-Sutherland Ghislaine McLeod[121] Tajinder Grewal[84] Dawne Badrock[85] Felipe Guerra[82] Jennifer Bowes†
Saskatoon University
Saskatoon Willowgrove Ken Cheveldayoff[80] Alana Wakula[84] William Hughes[85] Tawe Morin[82] Ken Cheveldayoff

Saskatoon West

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP Green Buffalo
Saskatoon Centre Dale Hrynuik[122] Betty Nippi-Albright[84] Darry Michelle[82] Betty Nippi-Albright
Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis Parminder Singh[123] Don McBean[84] Shane Caellaigh[82] Vacant
Saskatoon Northwest
Saskatoon Fairview Zahid Sandhu[124] Vicki Mowat[84] Phoenix Neault[82] Tony Ollenberger[90] Vicki Mowat
Saskatoon Meewasin Maureen Alice Torr[125] Nathaniel Teed[84] Jacklin Andrews[82] Nathaniel Teed
Saskatoon Riversdale Olu Fakoyejo[126] Kim Breckner[84] Naomi Hunter[82] Marv Friesen†
Saskatoon Westview David Buckingham[80] April ChiefCalf[84] Jupiter Neault[82] David Buckingham

Regina

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP Green PC Other
Regina Coronation Park Riaz Ahmad[127] Noor Burki[84] Maria Krznar[82] Olasehinde Ben Adebayo[128] Noor Burki
Regina Douglas Park Ken Grey[129] Nicole Sarauer[84] Victor Lau[82] Nicole Sarauer
Regina Elphinstone-Centre Caesar Khan[130] Meara Conway[84] Jim Elliott[82] Nathan Bruce (Prog.)[99] Meara Conway
Pamela Carpenter (SUP)[85]
Regina Lakeview Sarah Wright[131] Carla Beck[84] Heather MacNeill[82] Victor Teece[132] Carla Beck
Regina Mount Royal Jaspreet Mander[133] Trent Wotherspoon[84] Regina Demyen[82] Trent Wotherspoon
Regina Rosemont
Regina Northeast Rahul Singh[134] Jacqueline Roy[84] Anthony Thomas Majore[82] Kate Tremblay (Prog.)[135] Gary Grewal†
Regina Pasqua Muhammad Fiaz[80] Bhajan Brar[84] Ekaterina Cabylis[82] Justin Parnell[136] Shannon Chapple (Buff.)[90] Muhammad Fiaz
Regina Rochdale Laura Ross[91] Joan Pratchler[84] Irene Browatzke[82] Laura Ross
Regina South Albert Khushdil (Lucky) Mehrok[91] Aleana Young[84] Leonie Williams[82] David Teece[137] Aleana Young
Regina University
Regina University Gene Makowsky[80] Sally Housser[84] Cedar Park[82] Corie Rempel[138] Gene Makowsky
Regina Gardiner Park
Regina Walsh Acres Liaqat Ali[139] Jared Clarke[84] Dianna Holigroski[82] Bonnie Farrell (SUP)[99] Jared Clarke
Regina Wascana Plains Christine Tell[80] Brent Blakley[84] Bo Chen[82] Larry Buchinski[140] Dustin Plett (SUP)[85] Christine Tell

Opinion polls

[edit]

Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source SK Party NDP Buffalo Green PC Progress United Others Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Polling method Lead
2024 general election Oct 28, 2024 [141] 52.3% 40.4% 0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 3.9% 0.1% — — — 11.9%
Forum Research N/A Oct 25–27, 2024 [p 1] 46% 49% — 2.1% — — — 2.9% 3.0% 2,934 Smart IVR 3%
Research Co. N/A Oct 25–27, 2024 [p 2] 46% 48% — — — — — 5% 4.5% 500 Online 2%
Liason Strategies NEPMCC Oct 24–25, 2024 [p 3] 46% 49% — — — — — 5% 3.63% 729 Smart IVR 3%
Mainstreet Research N/A Oct 22–24, 2024 [p 4] 45% 49% — — — — — 7% 3.4% 820 Smart IVR 4%
Insightrix CTV News Oct 18–20, 2024 [p 5] 45% 50% — — — — — 5% 3.5% 802 Online 5%
Cardinal Research N/A Oct 9–24, 2024 [p 6] 49% 43% 1% — — — 3% 3% 3.5% 798 Telephone 6%
Research Co. N/A Oct 7–9, 2024 [p 7] 51% 43% — 3% — — — 2% 4.8% 500 Online 8%
Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research CUPE Saskatchewan Sep 23 – Oct 3, 2024 [p 8] 45% 40% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3.5% 800 Telephone 5%
Mainstreet Research N/A Sep 14–17, 2024 [p 9] 50% 40% — — — — — 11% 3.3% 857 Smart IVR 10%
Insightrix CTV News Sep 10–12, 2024 [p 10] 48% 49% — — — — — 4% 3.3% 806 Online 1%
Angus Reid N/A Aug 16–20, 2024 [p 11][p 12] 49% 42% — — — — 5% 4% 3% 802 Online 7%
Insightrix N/A July 23–26, 2024 [p 13] 47% 48% — — — — — 5% 3.3% 860 Online 1%
May 16, 2024 Nadine Wilson steps down as leader of the Saskatchewan United Party and Jon Hromek is appointed as the new leader.
Angus Reid N/A Feb 28 – Mar 12, 2024 [p 14][p 15] 50% 38% — 1% — — 6% 5% 4% 504 Online 12%
Insightrix N/A Feb 6–8, 2024 [p 16] 47% 49% — — — — — 4% 3.5% 800 Online 2%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24 – Dec 1, 2023 [p 17] 52% 39% — — — 3% — 6% 5% 350 Online 13%
Insightrix The SKoop Oct 4–6, 2023 [p 18][p 19] 51% 45% — — — — — 4% 3.5% 801 Online 6%
Aug 10, 2023 By-elections were held in Regina Coronation Park, Regina Walsh Acres, and Lumsden-Morse.
July 19, 2023 The Saskatchewan Liberal Party changes their party name to the Saskatchewan Progress Party.
Insightrix The SKoop July 11–14, 2023 [p 20][p 21] 45% 36% 2% 2% 10% 2% 3% 1% 3.5% 803 Online 9%
Insightrix The SKoop Apr 11–13, 2023 [p 22][p 23][p 24][p 25] 46% 37% 3% 2% 6% 3% 2% — 3.5% 803 Online 9%
Nov 30, 2022 The Saskatchewan United Party becomes a registered party, and Nadine Wilson becomes the party's first MLA.
Sep 26, 2022 A by-election was held in Saskatoon Meewasin.
June 26, 2022 Carla Beck becomes leader of the NDP.
Angus Reid N/A Jun 07–13, 2022 [p 26][p 27] 57% 34% — 1% — 2% — 6% 4% 513 Online 23%
Angus Reid N/A Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 28][p 29] 54% 36% — 2% — 2% — 6% 4% 602 Online 18%
Research Co. N/A Feb 19–23, 2022 [p 30] 53% 37% 3% 2% 2% 1% — 1% 3.5% 808 Online 16%
Feb 18, 2022 Ryan Meili announces his intention to step down as leader of the NDP.
Feb 15, 2022 A by-election was held in Athabasca.
Angus Reid N/A Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 31][p 32] 48% 39% — 1% — 2% — 10% 5% 415 Online 9%
Angus Reid N/A Sep 29–Oct 3, 2021 [p 33] 52% 35% — 1% — 2% — 9% 2% 505 Online 17%
Angus Reid N/A Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 34] 57% 31% — 3% — 2% — 8% 4% 412 Online 26%
Leger Common Ground Mar 1–8, 2021 [p 35] 41.5% 36.3% 4.5% 3.9% 7.3% 6.2% — 0.2% N/A 802 Online 5.3%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 36] 58% 27% — 3% — 1% — 11% 1.4% 459 Online 29%
2020 general election Oct 26, 2020 — 60.7% 31.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% — 0.2% — — — 28.9%

Results

[edit]

Although public opinion polling in the latter half of the campaign suggested that the NDP was leading the Saskatchewan Party in popular support, it remained unclear whether this would translate into a majority government, as their lead was based entirely on being ahead in Regina and Saskatoon while remaining ten points or more behind in the province's more rural districts.[142]

Taking nearly all rural ridings and two in Saskatoon (Saskatoon Willowgrove, and Martensville-Blairmore—which includes the Blairmore neighbourhood of Saskatoon), the Saskatchewan Party won enough seats to form its fifth consecutive majority government. If the Saskatchewan Party completes a full four years in office, it will be the second-longest streak of party control in Saskatchewan, exceeded only by the Liberal governments of 1905–1929.[143][1][2][3] The NDP reduced the Saskatchewan Party's majority from eleven seats at dissolution to three, taking all of Regina and all but two ridings in Saskatoon. Only one Saskatoon-based Saskatchewan Party MLA, Ken Cheveldayoff, won re-election.[144]

The NDP achieved upset victories over several long-standing Saskatchewan Party MLAs and ministers, including Bronwyn Eyre, Gene Makowsky, Paul Merriman, Laura Ross, and Christine Tell.The NDP also reclaimed the far northern seat of Athabasca, a party stronghold which the party had unexpectedly lost to the Saskatchewan Party in a 2022 by-election, but did not otherwise make any new gains in the province's rural districts.[145] The Saskatchewan United Party failed to win any seats, and lost its sole seat—held by party founder and former leader Nadine Wilson in the Saskatchewan Rivers riding—to the Saskatchewan Party candidate Eric Schmalz.[146]

Of the 32,476 mail-in ballots requested, only 20,417 had been returned by October 30. The remaining 12,059 must be received by November 7 (two days before the Final Count) in order to be validly entered into the total result.[147] There may yet be judicial recounts: under Saskatchewan law, they may only be requested by a candidate, and only if there is a tie or where the margin of victory is less than the number of rejected ballots and others objected to.[147]

Synopsis of results

[edit]
2024 Saskatchewan general election - synopsis of riding results[148]
Riding[a 1] Winning party Turnout
[a 2] 		Votes
2020 Party 1st place Share Margin
# 		Margin
% 		2nd place 3rd place Sask NDP SUP Grn PC Buff SPP Ind Total
 
Athabasca   NDP   NDP 1,823 62.80% 788 27.14%   Sask   Green % 1,035 1,823 – 45 – – – – 2,903
Batoche   Sask   Sask 4,415 61.20% 2,205 30.57%   NDP   SUP % 4,415 2,210 450 139 – – – – 7,214
Cannington   Sask   Sask 6,157 73.68% 5,034 60.24%   NDP   Buff % 6,157 1,123 424 103 – 549 – – 8,356
Canora-Pelly   Sask   Sask 5,227 71.07% 3,476 47.26%   NDP   Buff % 5,227 1,751 – 154 – 223 – – 7,355
Carrot River Valley   Sask   Sask 4,857 67.12% 3,462 47.84%   NDP   SUP % 4,857 1,395 844 140 – – – – 7,236
Cumberland   NDP   NDP 2,289 55.10% 647 15.58%   Sask   Green % 1,642 2,289 – 173 – – – 50 4,154
Cut Knife-Turtleford   Sask   Sask 5,597 71.27% 4,061 51.71%   NDP   SUP % 5,597 1,536 566 154 – – – – 7,853
Cypress Hills   Sask   Sask 5,807 74.76% 4,341 55.88%   NDP   Buff % 5,807 1,466 – – – 495 – – 7,768
Dakota-Arm River New   Sask 5,027 57.45% 2,913 33.29%   NDP   SUP % 5,027 2,114 1,074 92 443 – – – 8,750
Estevan-Big Muddy New   Sask 5,277 69.97% 4,304 57.07%   NDP   Buff % 5,277 973 453 84 – 755 – – 7,542
Humboldt-Watrous   Sask   Sask 5,271 58.66% 3,041 33.85%   NDP   PC % 5,271 2,230 600 127 660 97 – – 8,985
Kelvington-Wadena   Sask   Sask 5,015 65.07% 3,279 42.55%   NDP   SUP % 5,015 1,736 831 125 – – – – 7,707
Kindersley-Biggar New   Sask 5,749 76.83% 4,526 60.48%   NDP   Ind % 5,749 1,223 – 115 – 106 – 290 7,483
Last Mountain-Touchwood   Sask   Sask 4,144 53.08% 1,643 21.05%   NDP   SUP % 4,144 2,501 1,107 – – 55 – – 7,807
Lloydminster   Sask   Sask 3,497 77.04% 2,769 61.00%   NDP   SUP % 3,497 728 276 38 – – – – 4,539
Lumsden-Morse   Sask   Sask 4,774 55.06% 2,617 30.18%   NDP   SUP % 4,774 2,157 1,371 61 308 – – – 8,671
Martensville-Blairmore New   Sask 4,617 59.93% 1,688 21.91%   NDP   Green % 4,617 2,929 – 158 – – – – 7,704
Meadow Lake   Sask   Sask 4,102 62.34% 2,035 30.93%   NDP   SUP % 4,102 2,067 304 107 – – – – 6,580
Melfort   Sask   Sask 5,796 73.90% 4,220 53.81%   NDP   SUP % 5,796 1,576 379 92 – – – – 7,843
Melville-Saltcoats   Sask   Sask 5,182 65.55% 3,237 40.95%   NDP   SUP % 5,182 1,945 620 86 – 72 – – 7,905
Moose Jaw North   Sask   Sask 4,578 59.31% 1,584 20.52%   NDP   Green % 4,578 2,994 – 147 – – – – 7,719
Moose Jaw Wakamow   Sask   Sask 3,819 55.02% 925 13.33%   NDP   Green % 3,819 2,894 – 228 – – – – 6,941
Moosomin-Montmartre   Sask   Sask 5,291 66.10% 3,380 42.22%   NDP   SUP % 5,291 1,911 609 122 – 72 – – 8,005
Prince Albert Carlton   Sask   Sask 3,166 51.08% 444 7.16%   NDP   SUP % 3,166 2,722 241 69 – – – – 6,198
Prince Albert Northcote   Sask   Sask 2,892 47.77% 133 2.20%   NDP   SUP % 2,892 2,759 302 101 – – – – 6,054
Regina Coronation Park   Sask   NDP 3,926 52.73% 1,092 14.67%   Sask   PC % 2,834 3,926 – 272 414 – – – 7,446
Regina Douglas Park   NDP   NDP 4,199 65.55% 2,196 34.28%   Sask   Green % 2,003 4,199 – 204 – – – – 6,406
Regina Elphinstone-Centre   NDP   NDP 3,268 61.08% 1,851 34.60%   Sask   SUP % 1,417 3,268 310 156 – – 199 – 5,350
Regina Lakeview   NDP   NDP 6,260 70.42% 4,048 45.53%   Sask   PC % 2,212 6,260 – 170 248 – – – 8,890
Regina Mount Royal New   NDP 5,419 61.25% 2,164 24.46%   Sask   Green % 3,255 5,419 – 174 – – – – 8,848
Regina Northeast   Sask   NDP 3,660 50.73% 507 7.03%   Sask   SPP % 3,153 3,660 – 149 – – 253 – 7,215
Regina Pasqua   Sask   NDP 3,814 52.35% 1,005 13.79%   Sask   PC % 2,809 3,814 – 132 441 90 – – 7,286
Regina Rochdale   Sask   NDP 5,046 53.44% 816 8.64%   Sask   Green % 4,230 5,046 – 167 – – – – 9,443
Regina South Albert New   NDP 5,108 64.73% 2,773 35.14%   Sask   PC % 2,335 5,108 – 131 317 – – – 7,891
Regina University   NDP   NDP 4,081 52.20% 655 8.38%   Sask   PC % 3,426 4,081 – 78 233 – – – 7,818
Regina Walsh Acres   Sask   NDP 4,700 56.99% 1,627 19.73%   Sask   SUP % 3,073 4,700 352 122 – – – – 8,247
Regina Wascana Plains   Sask   NDP 4,696 48.58% 593 6.13%   Sask   SUP % 4,103 4,696 414 98 356 – – – 9,667
Rosetown-Delisle New   Sask 5,965 70.74% 3,730 44.24%   NDP   Green % 5,965 2,235 – 232 – – – – 8,432
Rosthern-Shellbrook   Sask   Sask 5,279 64.18% 3,453 41.98%   NDP   SUP % 5,279 1,826 1,031 89 – – – – 8,225
Saskatchewan Rivers   Sask   Sask 3,945 53.68% 1,876 25.53%   NDP   SUP % 3,945 2,069 824 87 424 – – – 7,349
Saskatoon Centre   NDP   NDP 3,794 61.24% 1,603 25.88%   Sask   Green % 2,191 3,794 – 210 – – – – 6,195
Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis   Sask   NDP 4,721 51.49% 559 6.10%   Sask   Green % 4,162 4,721 – 285 – – – – 9,168
Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood   Sask   NDP 4,621 57.67% 1,359 16.96%   Sask   Green % 3,262 4,621 – 130 – – – – 8,013
Saskatoon Eastview   NDP   NDP 5,392 59.42% 2,030 22.37%   Sask   SUP % 3,362 5,392 196 125 – – – – 9,075
Saskatoon Fairview   NDP   NDP 4,121 56.54% 1,358 18.63%   Sask   Green % 2,763 4,121 – 244 – 161 – – 7,289
Saskatoon Meewasin   NDP   NDP 4,617 59.20% 1,677 21.50%   Sask   Green % 2,940 4,617 – 242 – – – – 7,799
Saskatoon Nutana   NDP   NDP 6,163 74.21% 4,207 50.66%   Sask   Green % 1,956 6,163 – 186 – – – – 8,305
Saskatoon Riversdale   Sask   NDP 3,624 60.43% 1,506 25.11%   Sask   Green % 2,118 3,624 – 255 – – – – 5,997
Saskatoon Silverspring New   NDP 4,435 51.43% 436 5.06%   Sask   Green % 3,999 4,435 – 190 – – – – 8,624
Saskatoon Southeast   Sask   NDP 4,921 50.53% 429 4.41%   Sask   SUP % 4,492 4,921 216 109 – – – – 9,738
Saskatoon Stonebridge New   NDP 4,177 54.30% 841 10.93%   Sask   Green % 3,336 4,177 – 96 – – 84 – 7,693
Saskatoon University-Sutherland New   NDP 3,960 55.92% 1,298 18.33%   Sask   SUP % 2,662 3,960 312 147 – – – – 7,081
Saskatoon Westview   Sask   NDP 3,576 49.56% 74 1.03%   Sask   Green % 3,502 3,576 – 138 – – – – 7,216
Saskatoon Willowgrove   Sask   Sask 4,895 49.02% 136 1.36%   NDP   SUP % 4,895 4,759 251 80 – – – – 9,985
Swift Current   Sask   Sask 4,849 66.42% 2,712 37.15%   NDP   Buff % 4,849 2,137 – 98 – 216 – – 7,300
The Battlefords   Sask   Sask 4,352 59.40% 1,633 22.29%   NDP   Green % 4,352 2,719 – 140 – 115 – – 7,326
Warman New   Sask 5,927 65.56% 3,641 40.28%   NDP   SUP % 5,927 2,286 650 52 – 125 – – 9,040
Weyburn-Bengough New   Sask 5,785 66.76% 4,210 48.59%   NDP   SUP % 5,785 1,575 1,092 119 – 94 – – 8,665
White City-Qu'appelle New   Sask 5,298 55.76% 1,705 17.94%   NDP   SUP % 5,298 3,593 611 – – – – – 9,502
Wood River   Sask   Sask 5,700 68.26% 4,151 49.71%   NDP   PC % 5,700 1,549 495 54 553 – – – 8,351
Yorkton   Sask   Sask 3,513 51.79% 1,239 18.27%   NDP   SUP % 3,513 2,274 818 136 – 42 – – 6,783
  1. ^ sorted as per results summary
  2. ^ including rejected and declined ballots
  = Open seat
  = Turnout is above provincial average
  = Winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = Incumbent had switched allegiance
  = Previously incumbent in another riding
  = Not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = Incumbency arose from byelection gain
  = Other incumbents renominated
  = Previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = Multiple candidates

Summary analysis

[edit]
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party[148]
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
█ Saskatchewan 34 27
█ New Democratic 27 34
█ Saskatchewan United 27 4
█ Green 20 28 10
█ Progressive Conservative 7 4
█ Buffalo 5 4 6
█ Progress 1 2
█ Independent 1 1

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
  1. ^ "NDP holds narrow lead over Saskatchewan Party on eve of SK election". Forum Research. October 28, 2024. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  2. ^ Canseco, Mario (October 28, 2024). "Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003". Research Co.
  3. ^ "SK NDP Leads Saskatchewan Party, 49% to 46%". Liaison Strategies. October 26, 2024.
  4. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Saskatchewan" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. October 25, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
  5. ^ "Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says". CTV News Regina. Bell Media. October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  6. ^ "Saskatchewan Provincial Polling, October 9-24, 2024 – Cardinal Research".
  7. ^ "Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan". Research Co. October 11, 2024. Retrieved October 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "CUPE Saskatchewan - Election Survey -" (PDF). Janet Brown Opinion Research. September 16, 2024. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
  9. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Saskatchewan" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  10. ^ Davenport, Cole (September 25, 2024). "Sask. Party, NDP entering tight race in fall election, new poll says". CTV News Regina. Bell Media. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  11. ^ "Election 2024: Saskatchewan Party maintains lead over the opposition NDP, but the gap is narrowing". Angus Reid Institute. August 22, 2024. Archived from the original on August 22, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024.08.21_SK_Election_tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. August 21, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
  13. ^ "Saskatchewan Political Polling July 2024". Insightrix. August 7, 2024. Archived from the original on August 19, 2024. Retrieved August 19, 2024.
  14. ^ "Saskatchewan Spotlight: Sask Party preferred on top issues, hold double-digit vote intention lead". Angus Reid Institute. March 15, 2024. Archived from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024.03.14_Sask_Final_Tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  16. ^ "Independent Poll – Saskatchewan Voter Intent & School Teacher Labour Negotiations" (PDF). Insightrix. February 9, 2024. Archived (PDF) from the original on April 14, 2024. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  17. ^ "Saskatchewan: Majority support government's gender & pronoun policy but half also say exceptions needed" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. June 12, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  18. ^ "Residents say federal government most to blame for rising cost of living in Saskatchewan, according to new poll". The SKoop. October 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 20, 2023. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  19. ^ "The SKoop Polling – October 2023". Insightrix. October 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 20, 2023. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  20. ^ "The SKoop Polling: Cost of living, healthcare top issues for Saskatchewan voters; Saskatchewan Party best able to handle cost of living issues". The SKoop. July 26, 2023. Archived from the original on July 27, 2023. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  21. ^ "NEW POLLING: Cost of Living, Healthcare Top Issues for Sask. Voters". The SKoop. July 21, 2023. Archived from the original on July 25, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  22. ^ Polling Canada [@CanadianPolling] (April 24, 2023). "Saskatchewan Provincial Polling..." (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  23. ^ "POLLING: Sask. Party Leads NDP, Sask. United Barely Registering Support". The SKoop. April 21, 2023. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
  24. ^ Richardson, Dale (April 21, 2023). "Sask. Party Leads NDP in New Poll, Sask. United Registers Barely Any Support". The SKoop. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
  25. ^ Salloum, Alec (April 24, 2023). "Recent poll shows NDP favoured over Sask. Party in Regina, Saskatoon". Regina Leader-Post. Postmedia Network. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 26, 2023.
  26. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart". Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  27. ^ "Full Report" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  28. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  29. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  30. ^ "What is Saskatchewan?". Research Co. February 25, 2022. Archived from the original on February 25, 2022. Retrieved February 25, 2022.
  31. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics" (PDF). Angus Reid. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
  32. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  33. ^ "Provincial Spotlight" (PDF). Angus Reid. October 27, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  34. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). angusreid.org. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 10, 2021.
  35. ^ "Viewpoint Saskatchewan: Vote Intentions & Party Identifications". Common Ground. Archived from the original on December 3, 2021. Retrieved December 3, 2021.
  36. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, COVID-19 management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2021.

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Currently Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.
  2. ^ The Biggar-Sask Valley constituency was eliminated following redistribution, prompting Weekes, then a Saskatchewan Party MLA, to seek the party's nomination in Kindersley-Biggar, which includes a portion of the former Biggar-Sask Valley constituency. Weekes later left the Saskatchewan Party after losing the nomination.

References

[edit]
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