File:NZ opinion polls 2011-2014-majorparties.png
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NZ_opinion_polls_2011-2014-majorparties.png (778 × 487 pixels, file size: 13 KB, MIME type: image/png)
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Summary
DescriptionNZ opinion polls 2011-2014-majorparties.png |
English: Graph showing support for political parties in New Zealand since the 2011 election, according to various political polls. Data is obtained from the Wikipedia page, Opinion polling for the Next New Zealand general election |
Date | |
Source | Own work |
Author | Mark Payne, Denmark |
This file may be updated to reflect new information. If you wish to use a specific version of the file without it being overwritten, please upload the required version as a separate file. |
Figure is produced using the R statistical package, using the following code. It first reads the HTML directly from the website, then parses the data and saves the graph into your working directory. It should be able to be run directly by anyone with R.
rm(list=ls())
library(mgcv)
#==========================================
#Parameters - specified as a list
opts <- list()
opts$major <- list(parties= c("Green","Labour","National","NZ First"), #use precise names from Table headers
ylims = c(0,65), #Vertical range
fname= "NZ_opinion_polls_2011-2014-majorparties.png",
dp=0) #Number of decimal places to round estimates to
opts$minor <- list(parties=c("ACT","Maori","United Future","Mana","Conservative","Internet Mana"), #please use "Maori" for the Maori party
ylims = c(0,6), #Vertical range
fname = "NZ_opinion_polls_2011-2014-minorparties.png",
dp=1) #Number of decimal places to round estimates to
#==========================================
#Shouldn't need to edit anything below here
#==========================================
#Load the complete HTML file into memory
html <- readLines(url("http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election",encoding="UTF-8"))
closeAllConnections()
#Extract the opinion poll data table
tbl.no <- 1
tbl <- html[(grep("<table.*",html)[tbl.no]):(grep("</table.*",html)[tbl.no])]
#Now split it into the rows, based on the <tr> tag
tbl.rows <- list()
open.tr <- grep("<tr",tbl)
close.tr <- grep("</tr",tbl)
for(i in 1:length(open.tr)) tbl.rows[[i]] <- tbl[open.tr[i]:close.tr[i]]
#Extract table headers
hdrs <- grep("<th",tbl,value=TRUE)
hdrs <- hdrs[1:(length(hdrs)/2)]
party.names <- gsub("<.*?>","",hdrs)[-c(1:2)]
party.names <- gsub(" ","_",party.names) #Replace space with a _
party.names <- gsub("M.{1}ori","Maori",party.names) #Apologies, but the hard "a" is too hard to handle otherwise
party.cols <- gsub("^.*bgcolor=\"(.*?)\".*$","\\1",hdrs)[-c(1:2)]
names(party.cols) <- party.names
#Extract data rows
tbl.rows <- tbl.rows[sapply(tbl.rows,function(x) length(grep("<td",x)))>1]
#Now extract the data
survey.dat <- lapply(tbl.rows,function(x) {
#Start by only considering where we have <td> tags
td.tags <- x[grep("<td",x)]
#Polling data appears in columns other than first two
dat <- td.tags[-c(1,2)]
#Now strip the data and covert to numeric format
dat <- gsub("<td>|</td>","",dat)
dat <- gsub("%","",dat)
dat <- gsub("-","0",dat)
dat <- gsub("<","",dat)
dat <- as.numeric(dat)
if(length(dat)!=length(party.names)) {
stop(sprintf("Survey data is not defined properly: %s",td.tags[1]))
}
names(dat) <- party.names
#Getting the date strings is a little harder. Start by tidying up the dates
date.str <- td.tags[2] #Dates are in the second column
date.str <- gsub("<sup.*</sup>","",date.str) #Throw out anything between superscript tags, as its an reference to the source
date.str <- gsub("<td>|</td>","",date.str) #Throw out any tags
#Get numeric parts of string
digits.str <- gsub("[^0123456789]"," ",date.str)
digits.str <- gsub("^ +","",digits.str) #Drop leading whitespace
digits <- strsplit(digits.str," +")[[1]]
yrs <- grep("[0-9]{4}",digits,value=TRUE)
days <- digits[!digits%in%yrs]
#Get months
month.str <- gsub("[^A-Z,a-z]"," ",date.str)
month.str <- gsub("^ +","",month.str) #Drop leading whitespace
mnths <- strsplit(month.str," +",month.str)[[1]]
#Now paste together to make standardised date strings
days <- rep(days,length.out=2)
mnths <- rep(mnths,length.out=2)
yrs <- rep(yrs,length.out=2)
dates.std <- paste(days,mnths,yrs)
#And finally the survey time
survey.time <- mean(as.POSIXct(strptime(dates.std,format="%d %B %Y")))
#Get the name of the survey company too
survey.comp <- td.tags[1]
survey.comp <- gsub("<sup.*</sup>","",survey.comp)
survey.comp <- gsub("<td>|</td>","",survey.comp)
survey.comp <- gsub("<U+2013>","-",survey.comp,fixed=TRUE)
survey.comp <- gsub("(?U)<.*>","",survey.comp,perl=TRUE)
survey.comp <- gsub("^ +| +$","",survey.comp)
survey.comp <- gsub("-+"," ",survey.comp)
#And now return results
return(data.frame(Company=survey.comp,Date=survey.time,date.str,t(dat)))
})
#Combine results
surveys <- do.call(rbind,survey.dat)
#==========================================
#Now generate each plot
#==========================================
smoothers <- list()
for(opt in opts) {
#Restrict data to selected parties
selected.parties <- gsub(" ","_",sort(opt$parties))
selected.cols <- party.cols[selected.parties]
plt.dat <- surveys[,c("Company","Date",selected.parties)]
plt.dat <- subset(plt.dat,!is.na(surveys$Date))
plt.dat <- plt.dat[order(plt.dat$Date),]
plt.dat$date.num <- as.double(plt.dat$Date)
plt.dat <- subset(plt.dat,Company!="2008 election result")
plt.dat$Company <- factor(plt.dat$Company)
#Setup plot
ticks <- ISOdate(c(rep(2011,1),rep(2012,2),rep(2013,2),rep(2014,2),2015),c(rep(c(7,1),4)),1)
xlims <- range(c(ISOdate(2011,11,1),ticks))
png(opt$fname,width=778,height=487,pointsize=16)
par(mar=c(5.5,4,1,1))
matplot(plt.dat$date.num,plt.dat[,selected.parties],pch=NA,xlim=xlims,ylab="Party support (%)",
xlab="",col=selected.cols,xaxt="n",ylim=opt$ylims,yaxs="i")
abline(h=seq(0,95,by=5),col="lightgrey",lty=3)
abline(v=as.double(ticks),col="lightgrey",lty=3)
box()
axis(1,at=as.double(ticks),labels=format(ticks,format="1 %b\n%Y"),cex.axis=0.8)
axis(4,at=axTicks(4),labels=rep("",length(axTicks(4))))
#Now calculate the gam smoothers and add the confidence interval
smoothed.l <- list()
for(n in selected.parties) {
smooth.dat <- data.frame(value=plt.dat[,n],company=plt.dat$Company,date=plt.dat$date.num)
#Smoother is a GAMM with polling company as a random effect
#Initially, we use a fixed term smoother. Once we get some data,
#can switch to automatic smoothness selection
smoother <- gamm(value ~ s(date,k=10) ,data=smooth.dat,random=list(company=~1))
smoothers[[n]] <- smoother
smoothed <- do.call(data.frame,predict(smoother$gam,se=TRUE))
smoothed$date <- smoother$gam$model$date
polygon(c(smoothed$date,rev(smoothed$date)),
c(smoothed$fit+smoothed$se.fit*1.96,rev(smoothed$fit-smoothed$se.fit*1.96)),
col=rgb(0.5,0.5,0.5,0.5),border=NA)
smoothed.l[[n]] <- smoothed
}
#Then add the data points
matpoints(plt.dat$date.num,plt.dat[,selected.parties],pch=20,col=selected.cols)
#And finally the smoothers themselves
for(n in selected.parties) {
lines(smoothed.l[[n]]$date,smoothed.l[[n]]$fit,col=selected.cols[n],lwd=2)
}
n.parties <- length(selected.parties)
legend(grconvertX(0.5,"npc"),grconvertY(0.0,"ndc"),xjust=0.5,yjust=0,
legend=gsub("_"," ",selected.parties),
col=selected.cols,pch=20,bg="white",lwd=2,
ncol=ifelse(n.parties>4,ceiling(n.parties/2),n.parties),xpd=NA)
#Add best estimates
fmt.str <- sprintf("%%2.%if\261%%1.%if %%%%",opt$dp,opt$dp)
for(n in names(smoothed.l)) {
lbl <- sprintf(fmt.str,
round(rev(smoothed.l[[n]]$fit)[1],opt$dp),
round(1.96*rev(smoothed.l[[n]]$se.fit)[1],opt$dp))
text(rev(plt.dat$date.num)[1],rev(smoothed.l[[n]]$fit)[1],
labels=lbl,pos=4,col=selected.cols[n],xpd=NA)
}
dev.off()
}
#==========================================
#Finished!
#==========================================
cat("Complete.\n")
Licensing
I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:
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Items portrayed in this file
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27 August 2012
File history
Click on a date/time to view the file as it appeared at that time.
Date/Time | Thumbnail | Dimensions | User | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
current | 21:36, 18 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (13 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 19 September, change prediction to 1dp. | |
06:44, 17 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (13 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 17 September 2014 | ||
23:14, 13 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (13 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 14 September release | ||
07:07, 11 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (13 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 11 September 2014 | ||
09:37, 5 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (12 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 5 September 2014 | ||
09:34, 5 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (12 KB) | Onco p53 | Update to 53 September 2014 | ||
07:31, 3 September 2014 | 778 × 487 (12 KB) | Lcmortensen | Update to 3 September 2014 | ||
07:17, 31 August 2014 | 778 × 487 (12 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 31 August 2014 | ||
07:12, 27 August 2014 | 778 × 487 (12 KB) | Lcmortensen | update to 27 Aug 2014 | ||
09:42, 17 August 2014 | 778 × 487 (12 KB) | Onco p53 | updated 17 August 2014 |
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