Metaculus
 Metaculus front page | |
| Type of business | Benefit corporation |
|---|---|
| Available in | English |
| Founded | 2015 |
| Headquarters | Santa Cruz, California, United States |
| Area served | Worldwide |
| Founder(s) |
|
| CEO | Deger Turan |
| Employees |
|
| URL | metaculus |
| Registration | Optional |
| Current status | Active |
Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.[1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.[2][3]
Reward system
[edit]Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.[2] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.[4] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.[4]
Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.[4] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[5]
In January 2020, Metaculus introduced the Bentham Prize, which awards bi-weekly monetary prizes of $300, $200 and $100 to the first, second and third most valuable user contributions.[6] The following month, Metaculus introduced the Li Wenliang prize, which awards a number of different monetary prizes to questions, forecasts and analyses related to the COVID-19 outbreak.[7]
History
[edit]Data scientist Max Wainwright and physicists Greg Laughlin and Anthony Aguirre launched the site in 2015.[2][4] In June 2017, the Metaculus Prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user predictions.[8] The Metaculus Prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[9]
In 2021, Metaculus received an Effective altruism infrastructure fund grant worth $300k.[10] In 2022, Metaculus received a $5.5m grant from Open Philanthropy.[11] In October 2022, Metaculus received $20k funding from the FTX future fund, 3 weeks before the bankruptcy of FTX.[12]
In 2022 the organization announced it reached 1,000,000 individual predictions, and that it was restructured as a public-benefit corporation, it is committed to the following goals, its new charter compels it to report annually on its progress in achieving these goals:[13]
- Fostering the growth, learning, and development of the forecasting and forecasting research communities.
- Supporting stakeholders who are serving the public good by informing their decision making.
- Increasing public access to information regarding forecasts of public interest.
In 2024, Metaculus rewrote their website code and released it under the BSD-2-Clause License.[14][15][16]
See also
[edit]- Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
- Iowa Electronic Markets
- PredictIt
- Prediction market
- Futarchy
References
[edit]- ^ Aguirre, Anthony (January 24, 2016). "Predicting the Future (of Life)". Future of Life Institute. Archived from the original on Mar 26, 2019. Retrieved March 16, 2019.
- ^ a b c Mann, Adam (December 17, 2018). "The power of prediction markets". Nature. Retrieved March 16, 2019.
- ^ Robitzski, Dan (2018-12-17). "This site keeps track of Elon Musk's predictions about the future". Futurism. Retrieved March 16, 2019.
- ^ a b c d Shelton, Jim (2016-11-02). "Metaculus: a prediction website with an eye on science and technology". YaleNews. Retrieved March 16, 2019.
- ^ Metaculus, "FAQ".
- ^ Besiroglu, Tamay (January 15, 2020). "The Bentham prize". Metaculus. Retrieved 22 January 2020.
- ^ Besiroglu, Tamay (February 13, 2020). "The Li Wenliang prize series for forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak". Metaculus. Retrieved 15 February 2020.
- ^
"What is the Metaculus Prediction?". Metaculus (FAQ). Archived from the original on 2022-11-10. Retrieved 2022-11-13.
... the Metaculus Prediction uses a sophisticated model to calibrate and weight each user
- ^ Forecasting the Future: Can The Hive Mind Let Us Predict the Future?, in Futurism, published September 16th 2016, retrieved March 16, 2019
- ^ "May-August 2021: EA Infrastructure Fund Grants". Effective Altruism Funds. Retrieved 2023-05-14.
- ^ Metaculus (2022-07-28). "Metaculus Awarded $5.5M Grant to Advance Forecasting as a Public Good". Medium. Retrieved 2023-05-14.
- ^ Metaculus (2022-10-12). "Metaculus Launches the 'Forecasting Our World In Data' Project to Probe the Long-Term Future". Medium. Retrieved 2023-05-14.
- ^ "Becoming a Public Benefit Corporation, Hitting 1 Million Predictions, and Three New AI Forecasting Roles". www.metaculus.com. 2022-09-12. Retrieved 2024-07-14.
- ^ Turan, Deger (June 21, 2024) [June 5, 2024]. "Open Sourcing Metaculus". metaculus.com. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
- ^ Chevalier, Sylvain (October 7, 2024). "A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source". Metaculus. Archived from the original on October 7, 2024.
- ^ "Metaculus/metaculus". GitHub. Retrieved October 14, 2024.